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Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Predictably Irrational
By Dan Ariely
h"ps://www.amazon.com/Predictably-­‐Irra:onal-­‐
Revised-­‐Expanded-­‐Decisions/dp/0061353248	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Dan Ariely
•  James B. Duke
Professor of
Psychology and
Behavior Economics
•  Ph.D. in cognitive
psychology &
business
administration
•  http://danariely.com/
h"p://www.scienceofrela:onships.com/home/
2012/7/6/dan-­‐ariely-­‐on-­‐chea:ng-­‐and-­‐infidelity.html	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Why this book?
•  Accident causing
third-degree burns
•  Pain associated with
recovery
•  Are we irrational &
why?
h"p://www.:mesofisrael.com/think-­‐youre-­‐honest-­‐dan-­‐
ariely-­‐will-­‐make-­‐you-­‐squirm/	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Relativity
•  Everything relative to
each other
•  Example: Print vs.
online offer
•  Searching for a guide
h"p://conversionxl.com/pricing-­‐experiments-­‐you-­‐might-­‐
not-­‐know-­‐but-­‐can-­‐learn-­‐from/	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Supply & Demand
•  Market dictated
•  Example: Diamonds & the DeBeers 
•  Supply & Demand- Dependent
h"p://www.lifehack.org/ar:cles/
communica:on/heart-­‐melt-­‐10-­‐proposal-­‐
ideas-­‐from-­‐movies-­‐you-­‐should-­‐copy-­‐and-­‐
paste.html	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Zero
•  Paying more to pay nothing
•  Emotional Surge
•  Example: $0 shipping
h"p://www.apmex.com/freeshipping	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Social Norms/Favors
•  Can money be offensive?
•  Example: Moving
•  Example: Dog sitting
h"ps://www.pinterest.com/densgrl4ever/?redirected=1	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Free
•  Self implemented restrictions
•  Example: 1 cent vs. free Starbursts
•  Promotional ideas: buy 2 get 1 free
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Arousal 
•  Decisions differ from predictions
•  High emotions = impaired judgment
•  Sex Sells
h"p://www.geenamatuson.com/blog/2014/7/15/norma-­‐jeanes-­‐crazed-­‐seduc:on	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Procrastination 
•  Self control
•  Long-term thinking needed
•  Positives of deadlines
h"p://www.cinemalaya.org/films/new-­‐breed/quick-­‐change	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Value & Ownership 
•  Value what we already own more
•  Need to make people feel they
already own something
h"p://www.fandango.com/movie-­‐news/news-­‐briefs-­‐see-­‐new-­‐jurassic-­‐
world-­‐dinosaurs-­‐kristen-­‐stewart-­‐joining-­‐michelle-­‐williams-­‐for-­‐indie-­‐
drama-­‐748963	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Options
•  Can be good or overwhelming
•  Example: College 
•  At risk with too many design
options?
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Expectations
•  What we expect dictates what we
pay
•  Key to branding & character
development
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Expectations
h"p://yeahthatskosher.com/2014/12/brasserie-­‐
halevi-­‐cedarhurst-­‐ny-­‐review/	
  
h"p://www.weekendnotes.com/suez-­‐delights-­‐malaysian-­‐
restaurant/	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Placebo
•  Are placebo’s ethical?
•  Price effects placebo
•  Don’t take away my placebo!
h"ps://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/placebo-­‐are-­‐you-­‐there/	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Distrusting Marketers
•  How does a designer get around
that?
•  Branding as family company
•  Branding as an artist
•  Honesty
h"p://www.indiewire.com/2015/06/adam-­‐driver-­‐
and-­‐alba-­‐rohrwacher-­‐on-­‐nightmarish-­‐hungry-­‐
hearts-­‐and-­‐why-­‐star-­‐wars-­‐feels-­‐indie-­‐61295/	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Dishonesty
•  People will cheat if they can
•  How to prevent that
•  Codes of conduct
•  Signing off 
•  Religion
h"ps://helloworldciv.com/blog/why-­‐
ten-­‐commandments-­‐why-­‐not-­‐fiTeen	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Cash & Honesty
•  Example: Steal a pencil or a dollar
•  Difficult with online market
•  Stealing designs vs. stealing money
h"p://
www.avclub.com/
review/writer-­‐
nebraska-­‐gets-­‐
religion-­‐
confirma:on-­‐233733	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Behavior Economics
•  New field
•  Other’s choices influence own
•  Example: Ordering food
•  Want designs to be seen used by
others
h"p://hookedonhouses.net/
2009/05/10/movie-­‐monday-­‐the-­‐
french-­‐village-­‐of-­‐chocolat/	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Recap
•  Irrational decision making
•  Repetitive decision making
•  Ability to change
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Personal Implications
•  Think through decisions
•  Evaluate decisions at multiple steps
•  Question things
h"p://steponmagazine.com/big-­‐eyes-­‐kitsch-­‐and-­‐realism-­‐create-­‐:m-­‐burtons-­‐best-­‐
work-­‐in-­‐a-­‐decade/	
  
Predictably Irrational
 Robin Deering
Design Implications
•  Target decision making patterns
•  Be willing to change
h"ps://worldonafork.com/2013/01/27/movies-­‐about-­‐art-­‐ar:sts-­‐and-­‐painters/	
  

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Predictably Irrational

  • 1. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Predictably Irrational By Dan Ariely h"ps://www.amazon.com/Predictably-­‐Irra:onal-­‐ Revised-­‐Expanded-­‐Decisions/dp/0061353248  
  • 2. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Dan Ariely •  James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavior Economics •  Ph.D. in cognitive psychology & business administration •  http://danariely.com/ h"p://www.scienceofrela:onships.com/home/ 2012/7/6/dan-­‐ariely-­‐on-­‐chea:ng-­‐and-­‐infidelity.html  
  • 3. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Why this book? •  Accident causing third-degree burns •  Pain associated with recovery •  Are we irrational & why? h"p://www.:mesofisrael.com/think-­‐youre-­‐honest-­‐dan-­‐ ariely-­‐will-­‐make-­‐you-­‐squirm/  
  • 4. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Relativity •  Everything relative to each other •  Example: Print vs. online offer •  Searching for a guide h"p://conversionxl.com/pricing-­‐experiments-­‐you-­‐might-­‐ not-­‐know-­‐but-­‐can-­‐learn-­‐from/  
  • 5. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Supply & Demand •  Market dictated •  Example: Diamonds & the DeBeers •  Supply & Demand- Dependent h"p://www.lifehack.org/ar:cles/ communica:on/heart-­‐melt-­‐10-­‐proposal-­‐ ideas-­‐from-­‐movies-­‐you-­‐should-­‐copy-­‐and-­‐ paste.html  
  • 6. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Zero •  Paying more to pay nothing •  Emotional Surge •  Example: $0 shipping h"p://www.apmex.com/freeshipping  
  • 7. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Social Norms/Favors •  Can money be offensive? •  Example: Moving •  Example: Dog sitting h"ps://www.pinterest.com/densgrl4ever/?redirected=1  
  • 8. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Free •  Self implemented restrictions •  Example: 1 cent vs. free Starbursts •  Promotional ideas: buy 2 get 1 free
  • 9. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Arousal •  Decisions differ from predictions •  High emotions = impaired judgment •  Sex Sells h"p://www.geenamatuson.com/blog/2014/7/15/norma-­‐jeanes-­‐crazed-­‐seduc:on  
  • 10. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Procrastination •  Self control •  Long-term thinking needed •  Positives of deadlines h"p://www.cinemalaya.org/films/new-­‐breed/quick-­‐change  
  • 11. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Value & Ownership •  Value what we already own more •  Need to make people feel they already own something h"p://www.fandango.com/movie-­‐news/news-­‐briefs-­‐see-­‐new-­‐jurassic-­‐ world-­‐dinosaurs-­‐kristen-­‐stewart-­‐joining-­‐michelle-­‐williams-­‐for-­‐indie-­‐ drama-­‐748963  
  • 12. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Options •  Can be good or overwhelming •  Example: College •  At risk with too many design options?
  • 13. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Expectations •  What we expect dictates what we pay •  Key to branding & character development
  • 14. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Expectations h"p://yeahthatskosher.com/2014/12/brasserie-­‐ halevi-­‐cedarhurst-­‐ny-­‐review/   h"p://www.weekendnotes.com/suez-­‐delights-­‐malaysian-­‐ restaurant/  
  • 15. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Placebo •  Are placebo’s ethical? •  Price effects placebo •  Don’t take away my placebo! h"ps://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/placebo-­‐are-­‐you-­‐there/  
  • 16. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Distrusting Marketers •  How does a designer get around that? •  Branding as family company •  Branding as an artist •  Honesty h"p://www.indiewire.com/2015/06/adam-­‐driver-­‐ and-­‐alba-­‐rohrwacher-­‐on-­‐nightmarish-­‐hungry-­‐ hearts-­‐and-­‐why-­‐star-­‐wars-­‐feels-­‐indie-­‐61295/  
  • 17. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Dishonesty •  People will cheat if they can •  How to prevent that •  Codes of conduct •  Signing off •  Religion h"ps://helloworldciv.com/blog/why-­‐ ten-­‐commandments-­‐why-­‐not-­‐fiTeen  
  • 18. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Cash & Honesty •  Example: Steal a pencil or a dollar •  Difficult with online market •  Stealing designs vs. stealing money h"p:// www.avclub.com/ review/writer-­‐ nebraska-­‐gets-­‐ religion-­‐ confirma:on-­‐233733  
  • 19. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Behavior Economics •  New field •  Other’s choices influence own •  Example: Ordering food •  Want designs to be seen used by others h"p://hookedonhouses.net/ 2009/05/10/movie-­‐monday-­‐the-­‐ french-­‐village-­‐of-­‐chocolat/  
  • 20. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Recap •  Irrational decision making •  Repetitive decision making •  Ability to change
  • 21. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Personal Implications •  Think through decisions •  Evaluate decisions at multiple steps •  Question things h"p://steponmagazine.com/big-­‐eyes-­‐kitsch-­‐and-­‐realism-­‐create-­‐:m-­‐burtons-­‐best-­‐ work-­‐in-­‐a-­‐decade/  
  • 22. Predictably Irrational Robin Deering Design Implications •  Target decision making patterns •  Be willing to change h"ps://worldonafork.com/2013/01/27/movies-­‐about-­‐art-­‐ar:sts-­‐and-­‐painters/