This study compared the logistic and Malthusian growth models for predicting fish harvesting yields in Terengganu, Malaysia. The models were applied to catch data from 2010-2012 and the results for each model were calculated. The Malthusian growth model provided a closer fit to the actual data and had a minimum error of 1409.84, compared to 1414.5 for the logistic model. Therefore, the study concluded the Malthusian model is preferable for predicting fish harvesting yields to help fisheries management optimize strategies and ensure sufficient supply.

1. COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LOGISTIC AND MATHUSIAN GROWTH
MODEL IN PREDICTING OF FISH HARVESTING IN TERENGGANU
UNIVERSITI
TEKNOLOGI
MARA
(TERENGGANU)
KAMPUS DUNGUN
PROBLEM STATEMENT
CONCLUSION AND
RECOMENDATION
OBJECTIVE
METHODOLOGY
SCOPE
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
INTRODUCTION
REFERENCES
ABSTRACT
Due to the growth of human population, people doubting whether they will
get enough protein from fish since fish provide the main source of fat
and protein as well as major sources for human diet. Recently, consumers have
become more conscious does the fish will be distributed enough for them when
the number of people continuously increasing. In order to optimise fish
harvesting yield, effective strategies need to be implement. Since mathematical
growth model is good in predicting and estimating, it can be used to predict the
future value for fish harvesting yield. By predicting fish harvesting yield,
fisheries management can prepared effective strategies to optimize yield. In
addition to that, fisheries management also can take the initiative to control and
manage fish harvesting strategies.
Mathematical model can be used widely in many
sectors including in fisheries area. In recent years,
the use of mathematical models has been extended to
agriculture sector especially in fish harvesting yield to
ensure continuous and optimum supply (Faris et al. 2012).
By using separable differential equations can give us a
mathematical formulation that can be used as a model in
population growth. In order to estimate the population of animals
as well as human population, using of mathematical model is a
way of prediction. The method that give optimize harvesting
outcome may be the best method for the fish prediction through
the years. There are two growth models have been used in
mathematical model namely Malthusian growth model and
logistic growth model.
Fish is the major source of fat and protein for the human being. Since the human
population are increase over the years, people doubt about the fish supply. The purposes
of the study are to make prediction of the fish harvesting by using mathematical growth
model. It helps to identify the preferable method between two growth models which are
logistic growth model and Malthusian growth model on fish harvesting prediction.
Malthusian and logistic growth model are apply to the data that was collected from
department of fisheries to make prediction. The models help to examine how different
harvest strategies affect mean annual yield. The growth models are appropriate for
population growth to estimate the highest continuing yield from fish harvesting
strategies implemented. Besides that, it helps to predict the optimum quantity for
harvesting that can ensure the fish supply is continuous. Finally, the results for
both models are compared. The preferable method for prediction of fish
harvesting yield to provide a better strategies is Malthusian growth model.
These findings can assist fisheries management improve the strategies
and increase the supply to meet the fish demand.
a) To make prediction of the fish harvesting by using
mathematical growth model.
b) To identify the preferable method between two growth models
which are logistic growth model and Malthusian growth model on
fish harvesting prediction.
Fisheries have been conducted in some places in
Malaysia for few years ago. Nevertheless, This
project not involves the whole Malaysia but only
focusing on fisheries department in Terengganu.
The scope narrowed and conducted at Terengganu
so that the data collected will be more accurate.
Data was collected from 2010 to 2012 and
selected monthly by using secondary data
from Department Of Fisheries Malaysia
official website
1. Model development
2. Solving differential equation
3. Calculate growth rate and P(t)
for both model.
4. Fit the data into available
model using Excel software.
5. Determine the model
constants and coefficient
6. Calculate the statistical
parameters and absolute error
(abs E)
Malthusian growth model
Logistic growth model
Error =
Figure below shows that the
population exponentially declines
at any fixed negative value of k.
Population size depends on the
growth rate, with the population
decline as P (t) becomes smaller.
Malthusian and logistic growth
model was compared and found
that Malthusian model is more
preferable to make a prediction
for fish harvesting yield. The
graph line for Malthusian growth
model is closed to the actual
values that provide minimum
error which is 1409.84 compared
to the logistic growth model
which is 1414.5. Solution
obtained helps provide a
guideline to fisheries
management to optimizes values
for the harvest yield and provide
a solution to the people who
doubting about the source of fish
as a protein and fat.
ROHAYU BINTI MOHAMED
2012434738
SUPERVISOR:
ASSO PROF HJ AHMAD HJ AZIZ
Figure below shows that
the comparison between
actual and prediction
value of fish harvesting.
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84.1409
36
50754.12
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