Latest data suggests global population growth is slowing --- unexpectedly fast deceleration may have profound implications for economics, geopolitics, energy demand, and resource depletion --- first Fischer “period of equilibrium” for 600 years in which population growth is decelerating, instead of accelerating; future price stability and huge increases in global per capita income?
Electron capture in a fully ionized plasma - Sept 17 2014Lewis Larsen
Masterful riposte by Widom-Larsen theory coauthors (Widom & Srivastava) and Swain invalidates erroneous criticisms of Maiani et al. (2014) and reaffirms the correctness of our original 2006 EPJC estimates for many-body collective electroweak neutron production rates
Lattice Energy LLC - Production of Gold via LENR transmutation of Platinum in...Lewis Larsen
Presently, unbeknownst to unsuspecting drivers worldwide, green LENR transmutation processes are occurring at very low rates during operation of three-way catalytic converters installed in over a billion cars and trucks.
Radiation-free nuclear transmutation of chemical elements by LENRs inside catalytic converters is strongly indicated by the presence of anomalous Gold, excess radiogenic Osmium, and shifts toward heavier isotopes that have been reported in Platinum and Palladium found in micron-scale nanoparticles that are emitted from vehicle exhaust pipes.
Extensive sampling and chemical analysis of certain roadway dust and roadside soils by environmental scientists have revealed that in scattered locations nanoparticulate Gold emitted from motor vehicle exhaust has accumulated to the point where local concentrations of this precious metal nearing key minimum threshold of 0.5 ppm needed for economic Gold ore.
This surprising nuclear activity in ubiquitous catalytic converters and absence of deleterious consequences for drivers or Earth’s environment argue that world is already safely coexisting with LENRs. This supports idea that LENRs could potentially be a very attractive future source of green nuclear energy if the technology is successfully commercialized.
Lattice Energy LLC - Mystery of Nagaokas 1920s Gold Experiments - Why Did Wor...Lewis Larsen
In a recorded interview with fellow physicist Prof. John Wheeler in 1962, Nobel prize-winning Japanese physicist Hideki Yukawa said that his colleague Hantaro Nagaoka in the 1930s was (quoting directly), “…“I think Professor Nagaoka was all powerful then among scientists … he had some very deep insight, although he did not work himself [at that point in his career] … Nagaoka was [the] President of Osaka University when I moved from Kyoto to Osaka. But he was at the same time President of the Academy; he was the greatest boss among all the scientists in Japan.”
Between September 1924 and June 1925, Nagaoka and his co-workers at RIKEN in Japan conducted some 200 experiments with high-current electric arc discharges between Tungsten electrodes immersed in liquid hydrocarbon transformer oil in which they detected successful transmutation of Tungsten into macroscopic, visible flecks of Gold and Platinum. In June 1925, Nagaoka went a world tour in which he spoke to scientific and lay audiences about their transmutation experiments in Japan and handed-out samples comprising small pieces of porcelain reactor vessels with tiny bits of adhering Gold that had been created therein. In July 1925, “Nature” published his Letter to the Editors in which he reported on their results and encouraged other scientists to try to repeat their provocative experiments.
Amazingly, as far as we can tell no one ever tried to repeat Nagaoka et al.’s landmark experiments. Even more incredibly, the entire area of inquiry involving electric discharge-triggered transmutations of elements essentially died-out worldwide by 1930 (Chadwick discovered the neutron in 1932 and transmutation via neutron-capture was first elucidated by Taylor in 1935). In this document, we explore some of the possible underlying reasons that may have caused this totally unexpected historical twist.
In 2004, Cirillo & Iorio (Italy) transmuted Tungsten into Rhenium, Osmium, and Gold in a modern, roughly equivalent version of Nagaoka’s electric arc discharge experiments. In 2012 at an American Nuclear Society meeting, using a very different type of gaseous D2 thin-film permeation experimental method it had pioneered in back 2002, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reported transmutation of implanted Tungsten targets into Osmium and Platinum.
Widom & Larsen theory of neutron-catalyzed low energy nuclear reactions (as published in the “European Physical Journal C – Particles and Fields” - 2006 and in “Pramana – Journal of Physics” – 2010) both predicts and explains all of this earlier experimental transmutation data with Tungsten targets.
If a modern repetition of Nagaoka et al.’s 1920s experiments produced encouraging results, commercial transmutation of Gold might not be very far in the future. That said, as in many cases--- time will tell --- and as they say in Russia, “We shall live and we shall see.”
Lattice Energy LLC - Synopsis of book titled Fusion Fiasco by Steven Krivit p...Lewis Larsen
Synopsis of Steve Krivit’s book “Fusion Fiasco” in context of the Widom-Larsen theory of LENRs:
By late October 1989 Dr. Edward Teller, ‘father’ of the first Hydrogen bomb, was apparently convinced Pons & Fleischmann had discovered a little-understood nuclear process that could operate in ordinary electrochemical cells. Bizarre absence of deadly hard radiation indicated to him that P&F’s puzzling results probably weren’t caused by a fusion process. After seeing all the ERAB panel’s data, he further speculated that the underlying process was very likely nuclear and possibly catalyzed by “neutral particle of small mass and marginal stability” that was somewhat akin to a neutron. Krivit reveals how his prescient insights were ignored by the DOE ERAB panel and then effectively buried for 27 years.
Lattice Energy LLC-New Data Support Idea of Decelerating Population Growth-Ap...Lewis Larsen
New data discussed in recent articles supports our conjecture of unexpectedly rapid deceleration in global population growth; many important ramifications,if correct and the observed deceleration is maintained over the next several decades.
Electron capture in a fully ionized plasma - Sept 17 2014Lewis Larsen
Masterful riposte by Widom-Larsen theory coauthors (Widom & Srivastava) and Swain invalidates erroneous criticisms of Maiani et al. (2014) and reaffirms the correctness of our original 2006 EPJC estimates for many-body collective electroweak neutron production rates
Lattice Energy LLC - Production of Gold via LENR transmutation of Platinum in...Lewis Larsen
Presently, unbeknownst to unsuspecting drivers worldwide, green LENR transmutation processes are occurring at very low rates during operation of three-way catalytic converters installed in over a billion cars and trucks.
Radiation-free nuclear transmutation of chemical elements by LENRs inside catalytic converters is strongly indicated by the presence of anomalous Gold, excess radiogenic Osmium, and shifts toward heavier isotopes that have been reported in Platinum and Palladium found in micron-scale nanoparticles that are emitted from vehicle exhaust pipes.
Extensive sampling and chemical analysis of certain roadway dust and roadside soils by environmental scientists have revealed that in scattered locations nanoparticulate Gold emitted from motor vehicle exhaust has accumulated to the point where local concentrations of this precious metal nearing key minimum threshold of 0.5 ppm needed for economic Gold ore.
This surprising nuclear activity in ubiquitous catalytic converters and absence of deleterious consequences for drivers or Earth’s environment argue that world is already safely coexisting with LENRs. This supports idea that LENRs could potentially be a very attractive future source of green nuclear energy if the technology is successfully commercialized.
Lattice Energy LLC - Mystery of Nagaokas 1920s Gold Experiments - Why Did Wor...Lewis Larsen
In a recorded interview with fellow physicist Prof. John Wheeler in 1962, Nobel prize-winning Japanese physicist Hideki Yukawa said that his colleague Hantaro Nagaoka in the 1930s was (quoting directly), “…“I think Professor Nagaoka was all powerful then among scientists … he had some very deep insight, although he did not work himself [at that point in his career] … Nagaoka was [the] President of Osaka University when I moved from Kyoto to Osaka. But he was at the same time President of the Academy; he was the greatest boss among all the scientists in Japan.”
Between September 1924 and June 1925, Nagaoka and his co-workers at RIKEN in Japan conducted some 200 experiments with high-current electric arc discharges between Tungsten electrodes immersed in liquid hydrocarbon transformer oil in which they detected successful transmutation of Tungsten into macroscopic, visible flecks of Gold and Platinum. In June 1925, Nagaoka went a world tour in which he spoke to scientific and lay audiences about their transmutation experiments in Japan and handed-out samples comprising small pieces of porcelain reactor vessels with tiny bits of adhering Gold that had been created therein. In July 1925, “Nature” published his Letter to the Editors in which he reported on their results and encouraged other scientists to try to repeat their provocative experiments.
Amazingly, as far as we can tell no one ever tried to repeat Nagaoka et al.’s landmark experiments. Even more incredibly, the entire area of inquiry involving electric discharge-triggered transmutations of elements essentially died-out worldwide by 1930 (Chadwick discovered the neutron in 1932 and transmutation via neutron-capture was first elucidated by Taylor in 1935). In this document, we explore some of the possible underlying reasons that may have caused this totally unexpected historical twist.
In 2004, Cirillo & Iorio (Italy) transmuted Tungsten into Rhenium, Osmium, and Gold in a modern, roughly equivalent version of Nagaoka’s electric arc discharge experiments. In 2012 at an American Nuclear Society meeting, using a very different type of gaseous D2 thin-film permeation experimental method it had pioneered in back 2002, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reported transmutation of implanted Tungsten targets into Osmium and Platinum.
Widom & Larsen theory of neutron-catalyzed low energy nuclear reactions (as published in the “European Physical Journal C – Particles and Fields” - 2006 and in “Pramana – Journal of Physics” – 2010) both predicts and explains all of this earlier experimental transmutation data with Tungsten targets.
If a modern repetition of Nagaoka et al.’s 1920s experiments produced encouraging results, commercial transmutation of Gold might not be very far in the future. That said, as in many cases--- time will tell --- and as they say in Russia, “We shall live and we shall see.”
Lattice Energy LLC - Synopsis of book titled Fusion Fiasco by Steven Krivit p...Lewis Larsen
Synopsis of Steve Krivit’s book “Fusion Fiasco” in context of the Widom-Larsen theory of LENRs:
By late October 1989 Dr. Edward Teller, ‘father’ of the first Hydrogen bomb, was apparently convinced Pons & Fleischmann had discovered a little-understood nuclear process that could operate in ordinary electrochemical cells. Bizarre absence of deadly hard radiation indicated to him that P&F’s puzzling results probably weren’t caused by a fusion process. After seeing all the ERAB panel’s data, he further speculated that the underlying process was very likely nuclear and possibly catalyzed by “neutral particle of small mass and marginal stability” that was somewhat akin to a neutron. Krivit reveals how his prescient insights were ignored by the DOE ERAB panel and then effectively buried for 27 years.
Lattice Energy LLC-New Data Support Idea of Decelerating Population Growth-Ap...Lewis Larsen
New data discussed in recent articles supports our conjecture of unexpectedly rapid deceleration in global population growth; many important ramifications,if correct and the observed deceleration is maintained over the next several decades.
Population Growth On Environment And Development
Essay On Cross Sectional Study
The Malthusian Population Theory
Essay on Population Growth and Standard of Living
Essay On Overpopulation
Essay On Population Health
Advantages And Disadvantages Of Population Essay
Why The Human Population Grow So Fast
Essay on Ageing Population
Argumentative Essay On Population Control
Argumentative Essay On Population Control
Essay on World Population
The Population Problem Essay
Population Growth Essay
Population Growth Essay
Essay on Population Demographics
Population Health Essay
Assignment 3GRADED ASSIGNMENT 2Directions1. Complete the followin.docxrock73
Assignment 3GRADED ASSIGNMENT 2Directions:1. Complete the following two problems, save your work, then submit your saved spreadsheet to Moodle by the due date and time.2. Do not change the name of this file when you save your work. The file should be called "Graded Assignment 2.xls".3. To facilitate grading, please do not delete or insert ROWS.4. Do your own work. Students submitting substantially identical spreadsheets receive a grade of zero.5. If you have questions, see me or email me at [email protected]Inventory holding cost (per unit per month)$1.00Hiring cost (per worker hired):$5,000.00Firing cost (per worker fired):$5,000.00Straight-time labor cost (per worker per month):$2,000.00Overtime cost (per worker per month)$4,000.00Production per worker per month100Present permanent workforce:60(The number of workers must be an INTEGER.)Beginning inventory in January:400a. Use Microsoft Excel Solver to find the least-cost CHASE aggregate production plan with a CONSTANT workforce. Workers may be hired or fired only at the beginning of January. Vary production using overtime. Your Solver setup will be GRADED. (20 points)JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberShipment Forecast500060008000100001200080004000600080001200060003000Aggregate Production PlanStraight-Time ProductionOvertime ProductionOutput Plan:Beginning Inventory400Shipments500060008000100001200080004000600080001200060003000Ending InventoryInput Plan:Number of WorkersHiresFiresOvertime (worker-months)Costs:Inventory Holding CostStraight-Time Labor CostHiring CostFiring CostOvertime CostTotal Plan Costb. Find the least-cost LEVEL aggregate production plan with a CONSTANT workforce. Workers may be hired or fired only at the beginning of January. DO NOT USE SOLVER. The Solver setup for question (a) will be graded. (20 points)JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberShipment Forecast500060008000100001200080004000600080001200060003000Aggregate Production PlanStraight-Time ProductionOvertime ProductionOutput Plan:Beginning Inventory400Shipments500060008000100001200080004000600080001200060003000Ending InventoryInput Plan:Number of WorkersHiresFiresOvertime (worker-months)Costs:Inventory Holding CostStraight-Time Labor CostHiring CostFiring CostOvertime CostTotal Plan Cost
Sheet2
Sheet3
The Myth of Asia's Miracle
Paul Krugman ,;
A CAUTIONARY FABLE ;
O N C E uPONa time. Western opinion leaders found themselves both
impressed and frightened by the extraordinary growth rates achieved
by a set of Eastern economies. Although those economies were still
substantially poorer and smaller than those of the West, the speed
with which they had transformed themselves from peasant societies
into industrial powerhouses, their continuing ability to achieve
growth rates several times higher than the advanced nations, and
their increasing ability to challenge or even surpass American and
European technology in certain areas ...
The Myth of Asias MiraclePaul Krugman ,;A CAUTIONARY .docxoreo10
The Myth of Asia's Miracle
Paul Krugman ,;
A CAUTIONARY FABLE ;
O N C E uPONa time. Western opinion leaders found themselves both
impressed and frightened by the extraordinary growth rates achieved
by a set of Eastern economies. Although those economies were still
substantially poorer and smaller than those of the West, the speed
with which they had transformed themselves from peasant societies
into industrial powerhouses, their continuing ability to achieve
growth rates several times higher than the advanced nations, and
their increasing ability to challenge or even surpass American and
European technology in certain areas seemed to call into question the
dominance not only of Western power but of Western ideology. The
leaders of those nations did not share our faith in free markets or
unlimited civil liberties. They asserted with increasing self-
confidence that their system was superior: societies that accepted
strong, even authoritarian governments and were willing to limit
individual liberties in the interest of the common good, take charge
of their economies, and sacrifice short-run consumer interests for the
sake of long-run growth would eventually outperform the increas-
ingly chaotic societies of the West. And a growing minority of
Western intellectuals agreed.
The gap between Western and Eastern economic performance
eventually became a political issue. The Democrats recaptured the
White House under the leadership of a young, energetic new presi-
PAUL K R U G M A N is Professor ofEconomics at Stanford University. His
most recent book is Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in
the Age of Diminished Expectations.
[62]
The Myth of Asia's Miracle
dent who pledged to "get the country moving again"—a pledge that,
to him and his closest advisers, meant accelerating Americas eco-
nomic growth to meet the Eastern challenge.
The time, of course, was the early 1960s. The dynamic young pres-
ident was John F. Kennedy. The technological feats that so alarmed
the West were the launch of Sputnik and the early Soviet lead in
space. And the rapidly growing Eastern economies were those ofthe
Soviet Union and its satellite nations.
While the growth of communist economies was the subject of
innumerable alarmist books and polemical articles in the 1950s, some
economists who looked seriously at the roots of that growth were
putting together a picture that differed substantially from most pop-
ular assumptions. Communist growth rates were certainly impressive,
but not magical. The rapid growth in output could be fully explained
by rapid growth in inputs: expansion of employment, increases in
education levels, and, above all, massive investment in physical capi-
tal. Once those inputs were taken into account, the growth in output
was unsurprising—or, to put it differently, the big surprise about
Soviet growth was that when closely examined it posed no mystery.
This economic analysis had two crucial implications. First, most
of the s ...
P O P U L A T I O N A N D D E V E L O P M E N T R E V I E W.docxgerardkortney
P O P U L A T I O N A N D D E V E L O P M E N T R E V I E W 3 1 ( 4 ) : 6 0 5 – 6 4 3 ( D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 5 ) 605
The Next 50 Years:
Unfolding Trends
VACLAV SMIL
FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES in human affairs come both as unpredictable discon-
tinuities and as gradually unfolding trends. Discontinuities are more com-
mon than is generally realized, and technical developments offer some of
the best examples of these underappreciated shifts. Incremental engineering
progress (improvements in efficiency and reliability, reduction of unit costs)
and gradual diffusion of new techniques (usually following fairly predict-
able logistic curves, no matter whether the innovations are mass-produced
consumer items or advanced industrial processes) are very much in evidence,
but they are punctuated by surprising, sometimes stunning, discontinuities.
The modern history of flight is an apt illustration of these inherent
unpredictabilities (Smil 2006). In 1955 it did not require extraordinary imagi-
nation to see that intercontinental jet travel would become a large-scale en-
terprise. But no one could have predicted (just a year after the third fatal
crash of the pioneering British Comet and the consequent grounding of the
first program of commercial jet flight) that by 1970 there would be a plane
capable of carrying more than 400 people. The Boeing 747 was a result of
Juan Trippe’s vision and William Allen’s daring, not an inevitable outcome
of a technical trend. And more surprises followed, including a counterintui-
tively massive increase in the total volume of commercial flying: between
1972 and 1981 two rounds of large oil price increases more than quintupled
(in real terms) the price of crude oil (from which all of the aviation kerosene
is refined), yet worldwide passenger traffic expanded relentlessly and its vol-
ume was 60 times higher by century’s end than it was in 1955 (ICAO 2001).
Some political discontinuities of the past 50 years have been even more
stunning. Nineteen fifty-five was just six years after the Communist victory
in China’s protracted civil war, only two years after China’s troops made it
impossible for the West to win the Korean War and forced a standoff along
the 38th parallel, and three years before the beginning of the worst famine
in history (Smil 1999). At that time, China, the legitimacy of its regime
606 T H E N E X T 5 0 Y E A R S : U N F O L D I N G T R E N D S
unrecognized by the United States government, was an impoverished, sub-
sistence agrarian economy, glad to receive a few crumbs of wasteful Stalinist
industrial plant, and its per capita gross domestic product was less than 4
percent of the US average. Yet by 2005 China, still very much controlled by
the Communist party, had become a new workshop for the world, an in-
dispensable supplier of goods ranging from pliers to cell phones, and it is
now underwriting America’s excessive spending through its record purchases
of US Treasury bills. How could an.
Ann. Rev. SOciol. 1977. 3163-78 Copyright @ 1977 by Annual .docxrossskuddershamus
Ann. Rev. SOciol. 1977. 3:163-78
Copyright @ 1977 by Annual Reviews Inc. All rights reserved
MORTALITY TRENDS +10538
Samuel H. Preston
Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98 1 95
INTRODUCTION
Perhaps no component of social welfare is as highly valued as life itself. The years
of life enjoyed by a population in a particular year are readily indexed by population
size. However, a larger population is not generally considered to be better off simply
by virtue of its greater volume of life. Like most other indicators of welfare, life is
commonly measured on a per capita basis: either by average life expectancy at birth
or by its close relative, the annual rate of death adjusted for age. There is a small
element of arbitrariness in the choice of an index, since the socially defined age at
which life begins is not uniform across populations. Regardless of the index chosen,
it is clear that mortality conditions have improved dramatically in the past century.
The improvements have been shared by all nations and by virtually all demographic
and social groups. This paper briefly reviews the magnitude of these improvements,
considers the factors that appear to be responsible, identifies certain remaining
inequalities in the length of life, and examines some of the consequences of these
developments.
MAGNITUDE OF MORTALITY CHANGES
Identifying precisely the average length of life is still impossible for slightly more
than half of the world's population, since registration of death remains badly incom
plete in many countries. The data problems are magnified when attention shifts to
earlier eras of human history. But even for these periods, substitute sources of
information permit the estimation of life expectancy within a reasonably narrow
range. For prehistoric populations, the only source of information is skeletal re
mains. The various estimates based on such data are summarized in Acsadi &
Nemeskeri (1970). Their summary suggests that life expectancy in prehistoric popu
lations was probably in the range of 18-25 years. Hunter-gatherer populations and
others at an early developmental stage were almost certainly clustered into groups
too small to sustain the acute infectious diseases that were later to present a persis
tent scourge among more densely settled groups (Cockburn 1963). For this reason,
the native populations of the New World were totally unprepared for the diseases
brought by European colonists. Some have suggested that the absence of acute
1 63
A
nn
u.
R
ev
. S
oc
io
l.
1
97
7.
3:
16
3-
17
8.
D
ow
nl
oa
de
d
fr
om
w
w
w
.a
nn
ua
lr
ev
ie
w
s.
or
g
A
cc
es
s
pr
ov
id
ed
b
y
U
ni
ve
rs
it
y
of
C
al
if
or
ni
a
-
L
os
A
ng
el
es
-
U
C
L
A
D
ig
it
al
C
ol
l
S
er
vi
ce
s
on
0
1/
07
/1
6.
F
or
p
er
so
na
l
us
e
on
ly
.
164 PRESTON
infectious diseases resulted in a higher life expectancy in .
9 A Historical Perspectiveon Economic Aspectsof the Popula.docxransayo
9 A Historical Perspective
on Economic Aspects
of the Population
Explosion: The Case of
Preindustrial England
Ronald Demos Lee
9.1 Introduction
The preindustrial context offers particular advantages for the study of
population change and its consequences. Over the course of centuries
the effects of population pressure on resources have a chance to emerge
and to dominate the more transitory influences. And other sources of
long-run economic change, such as technology, capital accumulation,
education, and institutional reorganization, were formerly weaker or
absent. Thus history may provide us with an actual ceteris paribus situa-
tion where statistical attempts to control for extraneous influences on
contemporary development have failed. Of course there is always the
risk that changing circumstances may have rendered the lessons of his-
tory obsolete, but one has to start someplace; the drunk looks for his
dime under the lamppost, though he lost it down the street.
There have been many studies of the effects of population growth on
economic development, but only a few of these studies are empirical.
Ronald Demos Lee is associated with the Department of Economics and the
Population Studies Center, the University of Michigan.
This research was funded by NICHD grant HD 08586-03. I am very grateful
to Professor E. A. Wrigley and Professor R. Schofield of the Cambridge Group
for the History of Population and Social Structure for making the aggregate parish
data set available to me. Philip Mirowski provided valuable research assistance at
all stages of this project, and I also profited from his knowledge of English history
and his creative insights. Professors Gavin Wright, Gary Saxonhouse, C. K. Har-
ley, and Albert Fishlow made helpful comments on earlier drafts. I am particularly
indebted to Professor Marc Nerlove for his detailed comments and his solutions
to some of the analytic problems.
517
518 Ronald Demos Lee
Theoretical studies, and the many simulation studies in the tradition of
the classic work by Coale and Hoover (1958), can be queried on their
premises (see Simon 1976). Cost-benefit studies of marginal lives, pio-
neered by Enke (1960), are empirical only in appearance; their results
can actually be derived a priori for virtually any country, regardless of
its economic situation, as Ohlin (1969) has shown in an ingenious
article. l Cross-national studies, seeking correlations of population growth
rates and growth rates of per capita income (see, e.g., Kuznets 1967;
Chesnai and Sauvy 1973; Easterlin 1972) have invariably found no
significant association. 2 Leff's (1969) well-known article on savings
rates and dependency rates has been so heavily criticized as to leave the
results in serious doubt. So although most economists and almost all
demographers believe high population growth rates are a problem, there
is a surprising shortage of empirical evidence. A study of the conse-
quences of population change in a historical cont.
Research Handbook on Climate Change, Migration and the Law - IntroductionGraciela Mariani
Synopsis
This comprehensive Research Handbook provides an overview of the debates on how the law does, and could, relate to migration exacerbated by climate change. It contains conceptual chapters on the relationship between climate change, migration and the law, as well as doctrinal and prospective discussions regarding legal developments in different domestic contexts and in international governance.
Lattice Energy LLC - Strategic importance of accelerating commercialization o...Lewis Larsen
Prospects for commercialization of LENRs have radically improved. New Lattice report “Strategic importance of accelerating commercialization of LENRs for green radiation-free nuclear power and propulsion” aims at a broad audience and outlines strategic case for greatly increasing R&D funding to accelerate development of ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) for CO2-free power generation. Recent Japanese government-funded NEDO project solved previously intractable problems with rational device design & fabrication, experimental repeatability, and erratic, limited thermal output that bedeviled researchers worldwide since 1989-90.
Given spectacular Japanese progress, it appears very likely that LENRs will be commercialized, probably sooner rather than later. Today, Japan is by far the experimental leader along that path; heavily involved companies include Mitsubishi Heavy industries, Toyota, and Nissan..
More Related Content
Similar to Population growth decelerating faster than expected; potential consequences for next 50 years
Population Growth On Environment And Development
Essay On Cross Sectional Study
The Malthusian Population Theory
Essay on Population Growth and Standard of Living
Essay On Overpopulation
Essay On Population Health
Advantages And Disadvantages Of Population Essay
Why The Human Population Grow So Fast
Essay on Ageing Population
Argumentative Essay On Population Control
Argumentative Essay On Population Control
Essay on World Population
The Population Problem Essay
Population Growth Essay
Population Growth Essay
Essay on Population Demographics
Population Health Essay
Assignment 3GRADED ASSIGNMENT 2Directions1. Complete the followin.docxrock73
Assignment 3GRADED ASSIGNMENT 2Directions:1. Complete the following two problems, save your work, then submit your saved spreadsheet to Moodle by the due date and time.2. Do not change the name of this file when you save your work. The file should be called "Graded Assignment 2.xls".3. To facilitate grading, please do not delete or insert ROWS.4. Do your own work. Students submitting substantially identical spreadsheets receive a grade of zero.5. If you have questions, see me or email me at [email protected]Inventory holding cost (per unit per month)$1.00Hiring cost (per worker hired):$5,000.00Firing cost (per worker fired):$5,000.00Straight-time labor cost (per worker per month):$2,000.00Overtime cost (per worker per month)$4,000.00Production per worker per month100Present permanent workforce:60(The number of workers must be an INTEGER.)Beginning inventory in January:400a. Use Microsoft Excel Solver to find the least-cost CHASE aggregate production plan with a CONSTANT workforce. Workers may be hired or fired only at the beginning of January. Vary production using overtime. Your Solver setup will be GRADED. (20 points)JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberShipment Forecast500060008000100001200080004000600080001200060003000Aggregate Production PlanStraight-Time ProductionOvertime ProductionOutput Plan:Beginning Inventory400Shipments500060008000100001200080004000600080001200060003000Ending InventoryInput Plan:Number of WorkersHiresFiresOvertime (worker-months)Costs:Inventory Holding CostStraight-Time Labor CostHiring CostFiring CostOvertime CostTotal Plan Costb. Find the least-cost LEVEL aggregate production plan with a CONSTANT workforce. Workers may be hired or fired only at the beginning of January. DO NOT USE SOLVER. The Solver setup for question (a) will be graded. (20 points)JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberShipment Forecast500060008000100001200080004000600080001200060003000Aggregate Production PlanStraight-Time ProductionOvertime ProductionOutput Plan:Beginning Inventory400Shipments500060008000100001200080004000600080001200060003000Ending InventoryInput Plan:Number of WorkersHiresFiresOvertime (worker-months)Costs:Inventory Holding CostStraight-Time Labor CostHiring CostFiring CostOvertime CostTotal Plan Cost
Sheet2
Sheet3
The Myth of Asia's Miracle
Paul Krugman ,;
A CAUTIONARY FABLE ;
O N C E uPONa time. Western opinion leaders found themselves both
impressed and frightened by the extraordinary growth rates achieved
by a set of Eastern economies. Although those economies were still
substantially poorer and smaller than those of the West, the speed
with which they had transformed themselves from peasant societies
into industrial powerhouses, their continuing ability to achieve
growth rates several times higher than the advanced nations, and
their increasing ability to challenge or even surpass American and
European technology in certain areas ...
The Myth of Asias MiraclePaul Krugman ,;A CAUTIONARY .docxoreo10
The Myth of Asia's Miracle
Paul Krugman ,;
A CAUTIONARY FABLE ;
O N C E uPONa time. Western opinion leaders found themselves both
impressed and frightened by the extraordinary growth rates achieved
by a set of Eastern economies. Although those economies were still
substantially poorer and smaller than those of the West, the speed
with which they had transformed themselves from peasant societies
into industrial powerhouses, their continuing ability to achieve
growth rates several times higher than the advanced nations, and
their increasing ability to challenge or even surpass American and
European technology in certain areas seemed to call into question the
dominance not only of Western power but of Western ideology. The
leaders of those nations did not share our faith in free markets or
unlimited civil liberties. They asserted with increasing self-
confidence that their system was superior: societies that accepted
strong, even authoritarian governments and were willing to limit
individual liberties in the interest of the common good, take charge
of their economies, and sacrifice short-run consumer interests for the
sake of long-run growth would eventually outperform the increas-
ingly chaotic societies of the West. And a growing minority of
Western intellectuals agreed.
The gap between Western and Eastern economic performance
eventually became a political issue. The Democrats recaptured the
White House under the leadership of a young, energetic new presi-
PAUL K R U G M A N is Professor ofEconomics at Stanford University. His
most recent book is Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in
the Age of Diminished Expectations.
[62]
The Myth of Asia's Miracle
dent who pledged to "get the country moving again"—a pledge that,
to him and his closest advisers, meant accelerating Americas eco-
nomic growth to meet the Eastern challenge.
The time, of course, was the early 1960s. The dynamic young pres-
ident was John F. Kennedy. The technological feats that so alarmed
the West were the launch of Sputnik and the early Soviet lead in
space. And the rapidly growing Eastern economies were those ofthe
Soviet Union and its satellite nations.
While the growth of communist economies was the subject of
innumerable alarmist books and polemical articles in the 1950s, some
economists who looked seriously at the roots of that growth were
putting together a picture that differed substantially from most pop-
ular assumptions. Communist growth rates were certainly impressive,
but not magical. The rapid growth in output could be fully explained
by rapid growth in inputs: expansion of employment, increases in
education levels, and, above all, massive investment in physical capi-
tal. Once those inputs were taken into account, the growth in output
was unsurprising—or, to put it differently, the big surprise about
Soviet growth was that when closely examined it posed no mystery.
This economic analysis had two crucial implications. First, most
of the s ...
P O P U L A T I O N A N D D E V E L O P M E N T R E V I E W.docxgerardkortney
P O P U L A T I O N A N D D E V E L O P M E N T R E V I E W 3 1 ( 4 ) : 6 0 5 – 6 4 3 ( D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 5 ) 605
The Next 50 Years:
Unfolding Trends
VACLAV SMIL
FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES in human affairs come both as unpredictable discon-
tinuities and as gradually unfolding trends. Discontinuities are more com-
mon than is generally realized, and technical developments offer some of
the best examples of these underappreciated shifts. Incremental engineering
progress (improvements in efficiency and reliability, reduction of unit costs)
and gradual diffusion of new techniques (usually following fairly predict-
able logistic curves, no matter whether the innovations are mass-produced
consumer items or advanced industrial processes) are very much in evidence,
but they are punctuated by surprising, sometimes stunning, discontinuities.
The modern history of flight is an apt illustration of these inherent
unpredictabilities (Smil 2006). In 1955 it did not require extraordinary imagi-
nation to see that intercontinental jet travel would become a large-scale en-
terprise. But no one could have predicted (just a year after the third fatal
crash of the pioneering British Comet and the consequent grounding of the
first program of commercial jet flight) that by 1970 there would be a plane
capable of carrying more than 400 people. The Boeing 747 was a result of
Juan Trippe’s vision and William Allen’s daring, not an inevitable outcome
of a technical trend. And more surprises followed, including a counterintui-
tively massive increase in the total volume of commercial flying: between
1972 and 1981 two rounds of large oil price increases more than quintupled
(in real terms) the price of crude oil (from which all of the aviation kerosene
is refined), yet worldwide passenger traffic expanded relentlessly and its vol-
ume was 60 times higher by century’s end than it was in 1955 (ICAO 2001).
Some political discontinuities of the past 50 years have been even more
stunning. Nineteen fifty-five was just six years after the Communist victory
in China’s protracted civil war, only two years after China’s troops made it
impossible for the West to win the Korean War and forced a standoff along
the 38th parallel, and three years before the beginning of the worst famine
in history (Smil 1999). At that time, China, the legitimacy of its regime
606 T H E N E X T 5 0 Y E A R S : U N F O L D I N G T R E N D S
unrecognized by the United States government, was an impoverished, sub-
sistence agrarian economy, glad to receive a few crumbs of wasteful Stalinist
industrial plant, and its per capita gross domestic product was less than 4
percent of the US average. Yet by 2005 China, still very much controlled by
the Communist party, had become a new workshop for the world, an in-
dispensable supplier of goods ranging from pliers to cell phones, and it is
now underwriting America’s excessive spending through its record purchases
of US Treasury bills. How could an.
Ann. Rev. SOciol. 1977. 3163-78 Copyright @ 1977 by Annual .docxrossskuddershamus
Ann. Rev. SOciol. 1977. 3:163-78
Copyright @ 1977 by Annual Reviews Inc. All rights reserved
MORTALITY TRENDS +10538
Samuel H. Preston
Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98 1 95
INTRODUCTION
Perhaps no component of social welfare is as highly valued as life itself. The years
of life enjoyed by a population in a particular year are readily indexed by population
size. However, a larger population is not generally considered to be better off simply
by virtue of its greater volume of life. Like most other indicators of welfare, life is
commonly measured on a per capita basis: either by average life expectancy at birth
or by its close relative, the annual rate of death adjusted for age. There is a small
element of arbitrariness in the choice of an index, since the socially defined age at
which life begins is not uniform across populations. Regardless of the index chosen,
it is clear that mortality conditions have improved dramatically in the past century.
The improvements have been shared by all nations and by virtually all demographic
and social groups. This paper briefly reviews the magnitude of these improvements,
considers the factors that appear to be responsible, identifies certain remaining
inequalities in the length of life, and examines some of the consequences of these
developments.
MAGNITUDE OF MORTALITY CHANGES
Identifying precisely the average length of life is still impossible for slightly more
than half of the world's population, since registration of death remains badly incom
plete in many countries. The data problems are magnified when attention shifts to
earlier eras of human history. But even for these periods, substitute sources of
information permit the estimation of life expectancy within a reasonably narrow
range. For prehistoric populations, the only source of information is skeletal re
mains. The various estimates based on such data are summarized in Acsadi &
Nemeskeri (1970). Their summary suggests that life expectancy in prehistoric popu
lations was probably in the range of 18-25 years. Hunter-gatherer populations and
others at an early developmental stage were almost certainly clustered into groups
too small to sustain the acute infectious diseases that were later to present a persis
tent scourge among more densely settled groups (Cockburn 1963). For this reason,
the native populations of the New World were totally unprepared for the diseases
brought by European colonists. Some have suggested that the absence of acute
1 63
A
nn
u.
R
ev
. S
oc
io
l.
1
97
7.
3:
16
3-
17
8.
D
ow
nl
oa
de
d
fr
om
w
w
w
.a
nn
ua
lr
ev
ie
w
s.
or
g
A
cc
es
s
pr
ov
id
ed
b
y
U
ni
ve
rs
it
y
of
C
al
if
or
ni
a
-
L
os
A
ng
el
es
-
U
C
L
A
D
ig
it
al
C
ol
l
S
er
vi
ce
s
on
0
1/
07
/1
6.
F
or
p
er
so
na
l
us
e
on
ly
.
164 PRESTON
infectious diseases resulted in a higher life expectancy in .
9 A Historical Perspectiveon Economic Aspectsof the Popula.docxransayo
9 A Historical Perspective
on Economic Aspects
of the Population
Explosion: The Case of
Preindustrial England
Ronald Demos Lee
9.1 Introduction
The preindustrial context offers particular advantages for the study of
population change and its consequences. Over the course of centuries
the effects of population pressure on resources have a chance to emerge
and to dominate the more transitory influences. And other sources of
long-run economic change, such as technology, capital accumulation,
education, and institutional reorganization, were formerly weaker or
absent. Thus history may provide us with an actual ceteris paribus situa-
tion where statistical attempts to control for extraneous influences on
contemporary development have failed. Of course there is always the
risk that changing circumstances may have rendered the lessons of his-
tory obsolete, but one has to start someplace; the drunk looks for his
dime under the lamppost, though he lost it down the street.
There have been many studies of the effects of population growth on
economic development, but only a few of these studies are empirical.
Ronald Demos Lee is associated with the Department of Economics and the
Population Studies Center, the University of Michigan.
This research was funded by NICHD grant HD 08586-03. I am very grateful
to Professor E. A. Wrigley and Professor R. Schofield of the Cambridge Group
for the History of Population and Social Structure for making the aggregate parish
data set available to me. Philip Mirowski provided valuable research assistance at
all stages of this project, and I also profited from his knowledge of English history
and his creative insights. Professors Gavin Wright, Gary Saxonhouse, C. K. Har-
ley, and Albert Fishlow made helpful comments on earlier drafts. I am particularly
indebted to Professor Marc Nerlove for his detailed comments and his solutions
to some of the analytic problems.
517
518 Ronald Demos Lee
Theoretical studies, and the many simulation studies in the tradition of
the classic work by Coale and Hoover (1958), can be queried on their
premises (see Simon 1976). Cost-benefit studies of marginal lives, pio-
neered by Enke (1960), are empirical only in appearance; their results
can actually be derived a priori for virtually any country, regardless of
its economic situation, as Ohlin (1969) has shown in an ingenious
article. l Cross-national studies, seeking correlations of population growth
rates and growth rates of per capita income (see, e.g., Kuznets 1967;
Chesnai and Sauvy 1973; Easterlin 1972) have invariably found no
significant association. 2 Leff's (1969) well-known article on savings
rates and dependency rates has been so heavily criticized as to leave the
results in serious doubt. So although most economists and almost all
demographers believe high population growth rates are a problem, there
is a surprising shortage of empirical evidence. A study of the conse-
quences of population change in a historical cont.
Research Handbook on Climate Change, Migration and the Law - IntroductionGraciela Mariani
Synopsis
This comprehensive Research Handbook provides an overview of the debates on how the law does, and could, relate to migration exacerbated by climate change. It contains conceptual chapters on the relationship between climate change, migration and the law, as well as doctrinal and prospective discussions regarding legal developments in different domestic contexts and in international governance.
Lattice Energy LLC - Strategic importance of accelerating commercialization o...Lewis Larsen
Prospects for commercialization of LENRs have radically improved. New Lattice report “Strategic importance of accelerating commercialization of LENRs for green radiation-free nuclear power and propulsion” aims at a broad audience and outlines strategic case for greatly increasing R&D funding to accelerate development of ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) for CO2-free power generation. Recent Japanese government-funded NEDO project solved previously intractable problems with rational device design & fabrication, experimental repeatability, and erratic, limited thermal output that bedeviled researchers worldwide since 1989-90.
Given spectacular Japanese progress, it appears very likely that LENRs will be commercialized, probably sooner rather than later. Today, Japan is by far the experimental leader along that path; heavily involved companies include Mitsubishi Heavy industries, Toyota, and Nissan..
Lattice Energy LLC - Green hard-radiation-free len rs could provide game-chan...Lewis Larsen
Green hard-radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) could provide game-changing nuclear power for military combat systems ranging from aircraft to individual warfighters. LENRs are the only energy technology on the foreseeable horizon that could provide a quantum-leap in military power generation and propulsion capabilities in the 2030 - 2050 time-frame.
Lattice Energy LLC - LENRs enable green radiation-free nuclear power and prop...Lewis Larsen
If commercialized, LENRs could become one of the world’s preeminent energy technologies. At system electrical power outputs of just 5 - 10 kwh, modular LENR-based distributed power generation systems providing combined heat and electricity (CHP) could satisfy energy requirements of a majority of urban and rural households as well as smaller businesses worldwide. Much lower-output, revolutionary portable LENR power sources could displace chemical batteries in applications where ultrahigh performance and longevity are needed.
At electrical outputs of 60 - 200 kwh, LENR-based integrated power generation systems would be able to power vehicles, drones, as well as smaller aircraft and watercraft. This would break oil-based fuels’ 150-year stranglehold on internal combustion engines and decisively decarbonize the entire transportation sector. High-performance LENR thermal sources could also provide high-quality heat for many types of industrial processes.
Although they could very likely be designed and built, development of megawatt-output LENR systems is not mandatory to disrupt the world of energy for the better. If wide deployment of small-scale, low-cost LENR CHP distributed generation could be achieved, large numbers of fossil-fired and/or fission power plants would not have to be built to supply competitively priced, uninterruptible electricity to regional grids serving urbanized areas. Under that scenario, centralized grid power generation would be gradually displaced by vast numbers of smaller, price-competitive distributed LENR power systems inside homes and businesses.
Lewis Larsen - DJIA approaches previous all-time record high close of 26828 -...Lewis Larsen
Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is approaching previous all-time record high close of 26,828 - what happens next? If U.S. economy speeds-up by 3Q 2019 and/or good China-US trade deal is completed, DJIA could hit new all-time highs and increase by 3,000 to 6,000 points during next 6 - 18 months.
Lattice Energy LLC - Microbial radiation resistance transmutation of elements...Lewis Larsen
Microbial radiation resistance, possible transmutation of elements, and the dawn of life on Earth
Multi-species communities of microorganisms will expend energy to assimilate and process heavy elements like Cesium, Gold, and Uranium that -- now -- play no obvious roles in growth or metabolism. Credible experimental data suggests some bacteria are shifting isotope ratios and possibly even transmuting certain elements. How and why are microbes doing this? LENRs may explain how, but why?
Although credible experimental data suggests some microbes can transmute certain elements via LENRs, much more experimentation will be required to decisively demonstrate that microorganisms can truly transmute chemical elements at will and determine which species of microbes have such capabilities. LENRs may not be all that uncommon out in Nature; if so, there will be major implications for geochemistry, isotope geology, and nuclear waste remediation.
LENRs can mimic isotopic effects of mass-dependent and mass-independent chemical fractionation. Elements and isotopes conserve their mass-balances in purely chemical systems; that is not necessarily true if LENRs are also occurring in same systems. Accurate measurement of total mass balances for all chemical species may be needed to discriminate between chemical and nuclear processes.
ULE neutron-catalyzed transmutation is not energetically practical for more-abundant chemical elements found in living systems such as Carbon. However, transmutation could potentially be an energetically feasible and advantageous capability that could enable some fortunate microbes to produce life-critical, low-abundance catalytic active site metals that are unavailable in local environments.
Japanese government-funded project with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, Nissan, and four universities is developing abiotic LENRs for power generation. Recently reported outstanding heat production results at working temperatures and pressures far lower than those found in many undersea hydrothermal vents.
Lattice Energy LLC - Korean scientists use bacteria to reduce concentration o...Lewis Larsen
Korean scientists used experimental laboratory mixtures of bacteria to reduce concentration of radioactive Cesium-137 (as indicated by gamma emissions) present in aqueous growth solutions irradiated with light at 12-hour intervals, shaken, and incubated at 25o C.
During experiments, and compared to controls, measured gamma radiation for flasks containing bacteria decreased at vastly higher rates than would be expected for ‘normal’ rate of Cs-137 β-decay. Is radioactive Cesium actually being transmuted into heavier Cs isotopes and other elements by living bacteria?
Lattice Energy LLC - Widom-Larsen theory reveals surprising similarities and ...Lewis Larsen
Widom-Larsen theory unveils additional surprising similarities and connections between LENRs and chemical catalysis.
Synopsis: recent extensions of the Widom-Larsen theory of LENRs have for the first time revealed additional striking and unexpected similarities between electroweak nuclear catalysis --- collective many-body en + pn reaction in condensed matter --- and enzymatic catalysis, inorganic chemical catalysis, plasmon-mediated chemical photocatalysis with “hot” charge carriers, as well as widely published nanotechnology concept of heterometallic plasmonic antenna-reactor nanoparticles for photocatalysis. Among a number of surprising commonalities between LENRs and chemical catalytic processes, many-body collective quantum effects and high local electric fields > 1010 V/m enable many chemical reactions and LENRs to proceed with substantial rates at vastly lower working temperatures and pressures. Existence of all these unexpected parallels suggests that valuable engineering insights can be obtained by data mining state-of-the art technical knowledge about nanotech and chemical catalysis and then applying and leveraging new insights derived therefrom to help accelerate future development of LENRs for power generation.
Lattice energy LLC - Chinese chemists report photochemical triggering of LENR...Lewis Larsen
Experiments reported in 2017 by Prof. Gong-xuan Lu et al. at Lanzhou Institute of Chemical Physics, in Lanzhou, China showed photocatalytic triggering of ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) at NTP with visible light. Experimental results reported in “Journal of Molecular Catalysis” (China) in 2017 claimed production of Deuterium and Helium as well as nuclear transmutation of Potassium to Calcium. Very significant discovery if experimental claims can be independently confirmed by other researchers using same methods. If Lu et al.’s claims are confirmed, their work has important implications. For chemical catalysis, it suggests that LENR transmutations can occur at very low rates in parallel with ordinary chemical reactions; LENRs can coexist and interoperate at NTP. Also implies total mass-balances for chemical elements comprising reactants and products might not necessarily be conserved. For astrophysics and cosmochemistry, it means that nucleosynthesis can occur on surfaces of Hydrogen- and metal-rich dust grains irradiated by starlight.
Lattice Energy LLC - LENR experiment conducted by The Aerospace Corporation r...Lewis Larsen
LENR experiment conducted independently in 2017 by The Aerospace Corporation (non-profit company that operates a FFRDC) effectively repeated excess heat results reported by the Japanese government-funded NEDO LENR fabrication and testing project. Experimental data from this confirmatory experiment was reported by Dr. Edward Beiting, a physicist and Senior Scientist at The Aerospace Corporation, in a presentation that occurred on June 5, 2018 at the ICCF-21 conference held at Colorado State University in Ft. Collins, Colorado.
Lattice Energy LLC - LENRs are revolutionary disruptive energy technology for...Lewis Larsen
Safe, radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) expand use of nuclear power & propulsion into huge range of land vehicles, aircraft, watercraft, and spacecraft. Scales downward from large fission reactors used in nuclear naval aircraft carriers and submarines. Enormous energy densities of LENR-based power & propulsion technology could confer decisive combat systems advantages on near-future battlefields.
Lattice Energy LLC - Revolutionary LENRs for power generation - accelerating ...Lewis Larsen
Commercialization of radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) for power generation could potentially occur with surprising speed. In just 2.5 years, Japanese government NEDO-funded LENR device fabrication and testing project achieved TRL-4 (refuting the skeptics) and validated application of Widom-Larsen theory, materials science, and nanotech to help accelerate commercialization pathway from present developmental level of TRL-4 to future commercial LENR-based products at TRL-9.
Lattice Energy LLC - March 2 Technova seminar in Tokyo released more info re ...Lewis Larsen
Japan’s NEDO-sponsored LENR device project released additional technical details at Technova seminar held in Tokyo on March 2, 2018. Japanese government is targeting commercialization of LENRs as a revolutionary, radiation-free nuclear technology for use in power generation and propulsion applications. NEDO project results to date have demonstrated Watt-level reproducibility of excess heat in small nanocomposite LENR devices. Assuming substantial scale-up of device heat output is possible, NEDO project’s technical achievement validates future potential for LENRs to someday become an important source of green CO2-free energy.
Lattice Energy LLC - Russia announces nuclear fission-powered cruise missile ...Lewis Larsen
In globally televised speech on March 1, President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia has successfully developed and tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile with unprecedented performance capabilities. If real (which appears likely), this advanced weapon system is probably powered by an unshielded Uranium fission reactor. Such a propulsion system would almost certainly produce large emissions of deadly energetic neutron/gamma radiation and release radioactive waste particulates into reactor exhaust plumes that would be rather dangerous to exposed people and the environment.
Radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) --- which involve neither fission nor fusion --- now under development by Lattice, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, and Nissan are a truly safe, green nuclear technology. Importantly, LENRs can potentially be scaled-up and might someday be able to safely propel future missiles, manned aircraft/UAVs, manned submarines/UUVs, and everyday motor vehicles.
Lattice Energy LLC - Japanese NEDO industry-academia-government project - nan...Lewis Larsen
Nanocomposite LENR devices in Japanese NEDO industry-academia-government R&D project produced enough cumulative excess heat to boil a cup of tea.
Since 1989, production of calorimetrically measured excess heat during vast majority of experiments with purpose-fabricated LENR devices was a hit-or-miss proposition. When excess heat produced, was typically < 1 Watt for periods ranging from few hours to several days. NEDO greatly improved device fabrication, reproducibility, longevity, and excess heat performance.
For years skeptics summarily dismissed LENRs as a potential new energy source because experiments were unable to produce enough excess heat to even “boil a cup of tea.” Thanks to results of NEDO project, not any more.
NEDO project has demonstrated that LENRs can produce non-trivial, Watt-level amounts of excess heat from nanocomposite multi-metal devices without emission of deadly fluxes of energetic neutron or gamma radiation --- it is safe, radiation-free nuclear technology.
Lattice Energy LLC - Japanese NEDO LENR project reported reasonably reproduci...Lewis Larsen
Japan’s NEDO industry-academia-government R&D program’s recent experimental results technically validated potential for LENRs to become major future energy source.
Excess heat was produced in ~ 80% of project’s reported LENR experiments. Whenever excess heat was created, it is most often at Watt-levels or better at reactor operating temperatures of 200 - 300 degrees C. Duration of excess heat production ranged up to weeks, which is non-trivial. Such LENR device behavior represents excellent reproducibility for complex early-stage technology. With respect to reproducibility of device fabrication methods and heat production, these are best-ever experimental results reported to date in field of LENRs.
Watt-level excess heat was produced in Hydrogen (H)- and Deuterium (D)-loaded experimental systems. No deadly energetic (MeV-energy) gamma or neutron radiation was detected during heat production in any project experimental runs. Such observations are consistent with and predicted by the Widom-Larsen theory of LENRs which posits production and capture of ultralow energy neutrons on ‘fuel’ atoms which drive hard-radiation-free nuclear transmutation reactions and decays that release nuclear binding energy in form of copious heat.
In Lattice’s opinion, NEDO project’s outstanding experimental results change LENRs’ Technology Readiness Level (TRL) from TRL-3 to TRL-4 (European Commission definitions). This is an important step in commercialization of LENRs for power generation applications.
Lattice Energy LLC - Japanese NEDO LENR project reported good progress in exc...Lewis Larsen
Japan now funding R&D in LENR technology for use in power generation applications. Quietly threw down the gauntlet to global oil industry.
January 2018: terse project report summarizing progress in Japanese government NEDO-funded R&D in LENRs for period of Oct. 2015 through Oct. 2017 was released by Technova Inc. on ResearchGate. Herein we will review and discuss NEDO project’s reported progress.
Project scientists reported significant R&D progress toward developing LENR devices that serve as powerful heat sources. Reproducibility of device fabrication techniques and excess heat output were improved. Certain nanocomposite, multi-metal LENR test devices with mass <140 grams cumulatively produced up to ~85 megajoules (MJ) of excess heat per mole (MJ/mol) of absorbed Hydrogen (H) or Deuterium (D); some: duration of heat > 1 month. By contrast, complete combustion of Hydrogen releases ~0.286 MJ/mol of H. Chemical processes cannot explain these results.
Japan, Inc. appears to be developing LENR technology to someday replace the internal combustion engine.
Lewis Larsen - Dow-Jones Industrial Average reaches 26000 - what happens next...Lewis Larsen
Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has just gone above 26,000 for first time ever. What happens next? Boom or bust?
Short pithy answer: “We ain’t seen nothin’ yet”; quoted from Barron’s article published in February 1988
Slightly longer answer: We are presently in an era of low-inflation economic growth and explosion of new technologies. Therefore, a continued global financial and economic boom subject to episodic, healthy market price corrections is much more likely to occur than a fearsome bust like the near-collapse of U.S. financial markets in 2008 and subsequent Great Recession from which world financial markets and many national economies are just beginning to fully recover. Herein we present key reasons why this bullish scenario should transpire as events unfold.
Lattice Energy LLC - Polar vortex cold wave in USA has potential for lower te...Lewis Larsen
Today, the United States is gripped in jaws of a Polar Vortex extreme cold weather event in Midwest and Northeast. On December 27, 2017 the nighttime low temperature in Duluth, Minnesota hit bone-chilling 41 degrees below zero F. This severe cold snap is predicted to persist through January 5 – 7, 2018. How will wind & solar renewable energy sources and commercial natural gas pipelines perform during this latest Polar Vortex event in U.S.? It will be interesting to see what happens between today and mid-January 2018.
Lattice Energy LLC - Fossil fuels and nuclear vs renewables for powering elec...Lewis Larsen
Enormous potential future value for diversified portfolios of renewable, fossil-fueled, and nuclear power generation --- enable grids to have resilience against extreme weather events related to climate change and “Black Swan” volcanic eruptions.
Proverb: “In the first place … an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Benjamin Franklin (1735). Fukushima lessons: mitigate improbable extreme events if not too expensive; $200 million was thought too costly to fix backup generators in 2006 but the ‘cure’ for the 2011 nuclear disaster now costs $189 billion and could take 30 - 40 years.
What may appear ‘greener’ and less $$$ in myopic short-term decision-making about grids could end-up being extremely $$$ expensive or catastrophic in longer-term. Data suggests that is it too risky for society to put all its energy “eggs” into a single renewable basket. Lattice therefore believes balanced diversity of different types of grid power sources is best strategy for insuring 99+% future reliability and excellent resiliency of electricity grids facing onslaughts of extreme weather events and low but non-zero probability for catastrophic Black Swan volcanic eruptions.
Since high % of renewable energy sources on electricity grids is a new phenomenon and unexplored territory, there aren’t preexisting road maps to guide government regulation and critical implementation by industry. Private sector companies by nature are concerned with short-term bottom line profitability and have more narrowly focused interests; by contrast, government is responsible for insuring national energy security over much longer time-frames and broader range of grid-threatening events.
Rick Perry/DOE’s controversial NOPR to FERC in September created an important opportunity for U.S. government and industry to begin productive dialogue about how to enhance the U.S. electricity grid’s ability to maintain present reliability and adapt to climate change.
Accelerate your Kubernetes clusters with Varnish CachingThijs Feryn
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
SAP Sapphire 2024 - ASUG301 building better apps with SAP Fiori.pdfPeter Spielvogel
Building better applications for business users with SAP Fiori.
• What is SAP Fiori and why it matters to you
• How a better user experience drives measurable business benefits
• How to get started with SAP Fiori today
• How SAP Fiori elements accelerates application development
• How SAP Build Code includes SAP Fiori tools and other generative artificial intelligence capabilities
• How SAP Fiori paves the way for using AI in SAP apps
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersSafe Software
Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projects’ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, you’re in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part “Essentials of Automation” series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Here’s what you’ll gain:
- Essentials of FME Parameters: Understand the pivotal role of parameters, including Reader/Writer, Transformer, User, and FME Flow categories. Discover how they are the key to unlocking automation and optimization within your workflows.
- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
We’ll wrap up with a glimpse into future webinars, followed by a Q&A session to address your specific questions surrounding this topic.
Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 4. In this session, we will cover Test Manager overview along with SAP heatmap.
The UiPath Test Manager overview with SAP heatmap webinar offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of the role of a Test Manager within SAP environments, coupled with the utilization of heatmaps for effective testing strategies.
Participants will gain insights into the responsibilities, challenges, and best practices associated with test management in SAP projects. Additionally, the webinar delves into the significance of heatmaps as a visual aid for identifying testing priorities, areas of risk, and resource allocation within SAP landscapes. Through this session, attendees can expect to enhance their understanding of test management principles while learning practical approaches to optimize testing processes in SAP environments using heatmap visualization techniques
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into SAP testing best practices
2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
Topics covered:
Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
Key Trends Shaping the Future of Infrastructure.pdfCheryl Hung
Keynote at DIGIT West Expo, Glasgow on 29 May 2024.
Cheryl Hung, ochery.com
Sr Director, Infrastructure Ecosystem, Arm.
The key trends across hardware, cloud and open-source; exploring how these areas are likely to mature and develop over the short and long-term, and then considering how organisations can position themselves to adapt and thrive.
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
Elevating Tactical DDD Patterns Through Object CalisthenicsDorra BARTAGUIZ
After immersing yourself in the blue book and its red counterpart, attending DDD-focused conferences, and applying tactical patterns, you're left with a crucial question: How do I ensure my design is effective? Tactical patterns within Domain-Driven Design (DDD) serve as guiding principles for creating clear and manageable domain models. However, achieving success with these patterns requires additional guidance. Interestingly, we've observed that a set of constraints initially designed for training purposes remarkably aligns with effective pattern implementation, offering a more ‘mechanical’ approach. Let's explore together how Object Calisthenics can elevate the design of your tactical DDD patterns, offering concrete help for those venturing into DDD for the first time!
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
In this session I delve into the encryption technology used in Microsoft 365 and Microsoft Purview. Including the concepts of Customer Key and Double Key Encryption.
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...UiPathCommunity
💥 Speed, accuracy, and scaling – discover the superpowers of GenAI in action with UiPath Document Understanding and Communications Mining™:
See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
This is a hands-on session specifically designed for automation developers and AI enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge in leveraging the latest intelligent document processing capabilities offered by UiPath.
Speakers:
👨🏫 Andras Palfi, Senior Product Manager, UiPath
👩🏫 Lenka Dulovicova, Product Program Manager, UiPath
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...
Population growth decelerating faster than expected; potential consequences for next 50 years
1. Unexpectedly faster deceleration of world population growth; potential consequences for the next 50 years
Please note: this is a 5-page public excerpt from a 38-page non public document
Latest Data Suggests Global Population Growth is Slowing
Unexpectedly fast deceleration may have profound implications for
economics, geopolitics, energy demand, and resource depletion
First Fischer ―period of equilibrium‖ for 600 years in which population growth is decelerating,
instead of accelerating; future price stability and huge increases in global per capita income?
Lewis Larsen
August 29, 2011
Chicago, IL USA
(312) 861 - 0115
?
Begin to exit the earlier ~linear, slow-growth phase at ~ 2,400 yrs BP
~ 1,400 AD
After > 500,000 years of slow, ~linear growth, in ~1,400 AD (just after “Black Death” depopulated Europe)
human population growth began to accelerate nonlinearly; hyperbolically of late --- going vertical with no
end in sight. This scary observation has been grist for Malthusian pundit mills and environmentalists with
axes to grind. The issue exploded into the public consciousness 43 years ago with publication of Paul
Erlich‟s famous 1968 book, “The Population Bomb,” and has been episodically ballyhooed ever since.
1996: A key event in the long, confused history of academic thinking about human population growth was
the publication of a brilliantly constructed theoretical model by a well-known Russian physicist as follows:
“The phenomenological theory of world population growth”
Prof. Sergey P. Kapitsa, Moscow Institute for Physics and Technology and Russian Academy of Sciences
Physics-Uspekhi 39 pp. 57 – 71 (1996)
Without delving into detailed assumptions and mathematical features of his sophisticated, well thought-
out model, Kapitsa predicted that global human population growth would finally begin to slow-down and
eventually level-out in the near future. This bold prediction was greeted with considerable skepticism and
scorn by prominent demographers, population theorists, and legion of pundits who had made a 30+-year
cottage industry out of forecasting dire, just-over-the-horizon neo-Malthusian population catastrophes.
1 | Lewis G. Larsen Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved August 29, 2011
2. Unexpectedly faster deceleration of world population growth; potential consequences for the next 50 years
1999 – 2006 time-frame: In the turbulent wake of Kapitsa‟s controversial and much-ignored paper, during
1999 - 2006 increasing numbers of academic studies started getting published that suggested that human
population growth might in fact already be slowing or on the verge of slowing down within 30 – 60 years.
Below is a chart of measured population growth rates by country as they appeared in 2005, about six
years ago:
Source URL =
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/Population_growth_rate_world_2005-2010_UN.PNG
Demographic human population growth models: Following the intellectual lead of Kapitsa in the wake
of his brilliant 1996 theory paper, so-called “demographic” models of human population growth recently
became acceptable concepts. The basic idea, as illustrated in the diagram below, is that birth vs. death
rates go through four characteristic „stages‟ as human societies, i.e., individual countries, progress
through a series of conceptually identifiable steps in their evolution toward more complex social,
organizational, economic, and technological structures:
Source URL = http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/stagesII.gif
2 | Lewis G. Larsen Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved August 29, 2011
3. Unexpectedly faster deceleration of world population growth; potential consequences for the next 50 years
In fact, when detailed historical time-series data are actually available for any given country, it does
appear to provide strong confirmation of types of future forecasts made by many so-called “demographic
transition” population growth models; e.g., see Sweden below and compare it to the chart shown above:
Source URL =
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/Demographic_change_in_Sweden_1735-2000.gif
In simple terms, a “demographic transition” model of population growth dynamics posits that it behaves
like an “S-curve” or “sigmoid curve.” This type of nonlinear mathematical construct accurately describes
the behavior of many different types of complex phenomena over time. Behaviorally, it increases slowly
and more-or-less linearly for a period of time, then accelerates nonlinearly during the middle phase, and
eventually slows down entirely on its own (i.e., it is intrinsically an internally self-limiting system), finally
entering a ~steady-state, roughly linear „flat plateau‟ phase at the end of the evolutionary progression.
The following is an idealized example of such an S-curve for an autocatalytic chemical reaction:
3 | Lewis G. Larsen Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved August 29, 2011
4. Unexpectedly faster deceleration of world population growth; potential consequences for the next 50 years
The following is an example of an S-curve behavioral phenomenon in a technological context (Nylon):
See
DuPont
NYLON
Old, widely-held beliefs die hard in spite of clear quantitative evidence to the contrary:
Even today, the idea of rapidly slowing population growth already being upon us is very much a
minority opinion. Large, entrenched, very vocal worldwide constituencies of the ca. 1968 „population
bomb‟ apocalypse chic thinking are still prevalent in academia and the media for complex reasons.
Truly uncontrolled hyperbolic growth modes versus intrinsically self-limiting nonlinear systems:
Nonlinear population growth models fall into two very different conceptual types:
Uncontrolled and unlimited hyperbolic human population growth: once a high-acceleration nonlinear
behavioral regime is entered, rates of population growth begin accelerating faster and faster without any
intrinsic limit until a random „singularity‟ is encountered; that is, until some external cataclysmic event(s)
terminates growth. Such apocalyptic events include, for example: mass starvation from inadequate food
resources caused by freakish weather patterns; rampant fatal epidemics and resulting mass deaths from
overcrowding and disease, e.g., Black Death, AIDS in Africa; population-destroying wars, lately fought
over dwindling natural resources, e.g., oil and gas; potential mass-extinction events resulting from global
warming triggered by manmade CO2 emissions; etc. In this view, population growth is ultimately curbed
by externally imposed Malthusian „black swan‟ horrors that may appear seemingly „out of nowhere‟.
Self-limiting nonlinear human population growth with well-defined developmental phases: when
key high-level parameters of such systems are plotted correctly, their graphs invariably display a
characteristic and distinctive “S-curve” or “sigmoid curve” shape. Note that the array of different internal
causal factors that produce a truly self-limiting dynamical system may be many in number, interact with
each other in complex back-and-forth feedback loops, and difficult to decipher or quantify. Importantly,
just knowing that a system‟s behavior is definitely sigmoid and presuming that reasonably accurate
historical time-series data is available; one can still successfully predict long-term future behavior of the
system once the mathematical equations describing a particular sigmoid graph have been determined,
even if the details of causative factors limiting its growth are poorly understood. Thus, with decent high-
level data, shifts in population growth can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, as Kapitsa did in 1996.
4 | Lewis G. Larsen Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved August 29, 2011
5. Unexpectedly faster deceleration of world population growth; potential consequences for the next 50 years
Final summary and key conclusions:
Latest census data shows that world population growth appears to be decelerating significantly
faster than most had been expecting; such a slowdown is consistent with predictions of various
demographic transition models, beginning with key theoretical work of Kapitsa (1996), which
posits that population growth is a self-limiting phenomenon described by sigmoid or “S-curves”
One prediction of demographic transition models, that significant increases in per capita GDP and
related improvements in standard of living are strongly correlated with slowdowns in population
growth, has been validated in every country for which historical time-series data are available
Evaluating 1,000 years of quantitative socioeconomic data, Fischer (1996) published a novel
developmental model claiming that during the past millennium there have been four long-
duration, transnational “Great Waves.” Each is comprised of both a noninflationary “period of
equilibrium” averaging 70 – 90 years in duration followed by a longer, more variable-duration
inflationary period called a “price revolution.” Further postulated that root cause of inflation during
all four price revolutions to date was excessive rates of population growth; no explanation was
given for key driving force(s) that causes subsequent periods of equilibrium
Larsen completes Fischer‟s conceptual model by postulating that periods of equilibrium are
mainly triggered and maintained by bursts of innovation and deployment of newly commercialized
technologies, broadly writ; further hypothesizes (more-or-less in agreement with Fischer) that a
new period of equilibrium began circa 1979-1980 that may potentially last until ca. 2065; that
hypothesis is supported by quantitative data showing worldwide explosion in new patent issuance
Conclusion: excessive population growth is unlikely to pose a problem during the era of today‟s
new period of equilibrium; i.e., if history is any guide, based on historical norms a la Fischer the
current period of equilibrium is likely to endure until at least ca. 2065, all other things being equal
Empirical data is presented (Huber & Mills - 2005; Brown et al. - 2011) showing that growth in
per capita GDP (which is what reduces population growth rates) is strongly correlated with
corresponding increases in total energy demand which, in modern energy-intensive societies,
determines the overall standard of living; measured against finite fossil fuel supplies and other
non-renewables, ratcheting demand exacerbates energy supply issues as GDP growth continues
Conclusion: single greatest threat to the probable longevity of the present period of equilibrium
is huge energy price inflation because available global energy supplies are unable to keep-up
with rising demand; new energy technologies must be developed and deployed to avert this
Conclusion: today, there is only one type of new energy technology that is potentially capable of
substantially solving the accelerating energy supply problem that may loom over the economic
landscape for the next 50 years: it is Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENRs) which do not
produce dangerous quantities of hard neutron/gamma radiation or long-lived radioactive isotopes
If LENRs can be successfully commercialized as a safe, low cost, carbon-free nuclear energy
source, it could enable ecologically sustainable global economic growth and democratize
universal access to affordable „green‟ energy. In doing so, LENR technology could help magnify
and intensify the most positive economic, political, and human welfare aspects of the present
Fischer period of equilibrium and accelerate various new transformations enabled by the Internet
By globally deploying a variety of commercial versions of LENR-based power generation systems
over the next 20 - 25 years, roughly 1.6 billion „energy-poor‟ people on this planet who are living
without any form of electricity today could finally be brought into the 21st century as new well-paid
consumers and eager contributors to a diverse, electronically interconnected global society
Conclusion: if LENRs can solve long-term energy supply issues at affordable costs, the present
period of equilibrium might eventually become something akin to a global 'Golden Age of Man‟
38 | Lewis G. Larsen Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved August 29, 2011
6. Unexpectedly faster deceleration of world population growth; potential consequences for the next 50 years
Addendum
September 1, 2011
Dear Readers:
Given the brevity of this 5-page excerpt, several comments and additional information may be helpful.
As stated herein, latest census data indicates that global population growth may finally be decelerating ---
perhaps significantly faster than expected by many experts; this new data may be very important.
If the deceleration in population growth occurring today is sustained over time, then during the course of
the next 50 years it could potentially have profound implications for economics, geopolitics, energy
demand, and the depletion of an array of nonrenewable natural resources.
That said, apart from immediately obvious corollaries, does the presently observed global trend toward
decreasing rates of country-specific population growth have even greater implications when viewed
through the „lens‟ of a conceptual framework that encompasses the long sweep of human history?
Yes, it does. Such a framework and developmental theory that may provide important new insights into
feedback interactions between human population growth and various identified socioeconomic factors
was published in 1996 by Brandeis University Professor of History, David Hackett Fischer --- amazingly,
during the very same year as Prof. Kapitsa‟s landmark paper on demographic transition theory.
To elucidate key causative factors and construct his complex, multifaceted conceptual model, Fischer
studied an impressive array of quantitative historical time-series data extending over a period of ~1,000
years from the Middle Ages to the present.
Reference to Fischer‟s “Great Wave” transnational socioeconomic model:
“The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History”
David Hackett Fischer
Oxford University Press (1996) ISBN: 019505377X 536 pp.
Paperback edition: June 2000
In his book, Fischer meticulously characterizes and describes the details of what he calls four global
“Great Waves” that have occurred during the past ~1,000 years from the High Middle Ages up until today.
In Fischer‟s two-stage conceptual model of a “Great Wave,” the first stage is a relatively noninflationary,
so-called “period of equilibrium” which typically lasts for 60 to 100 years („average‟ duration is ~85 years).
A Great Wave‟s second, longer stage is called a “price revolution” whose total duration is much more
variable than the first stage. In contrast to periods of equilibrium, price revolutions are characterized by
progressively higher rates of inflation and interest on debt obligations. They typically reach their final
climax in an inflationary economic cataclysm that is immediately followed by a massive deflationary
„crash‟ which sets the stage for the beginning of the world‟s next period of equilibrium (which also marks
the starting point and beginning „seed‟ for the next global Great Wave).
Over the past ~1,000 years, periods of equilibrium have occurred at one point during four well-known
historical epochs commonly known as the High Middle Ages (c. 1000 - 1200), Renaissance (c. 1400 -
1600), Enlightenment (c. 1700 – 1800), and finally the Victorian Era (c. 1830 – 1900); i.e., at certain times
during the eleventh, fifteenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries.
1 | Lewis G. Larsen Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved September 1, 2011
7. Unexpectedly faster deceleration of world population growth; potential consequences for the next 50 years
Importantly, as of ca. 1979-80 it appears to me that we may have also entered the first Fischer period of
equilibrium for 600 years in which population growth is decelerating instead of accelerating. That
possibility might also have extraordinarily important implications, if correct.
Implications are as follows: according to Fischer‟s model, a gradual leveling-out of global population
during such a period of equilibrium could potentially create a socioeconomically „benevolent‟ era
characterized by comparative price stability, positive social progress, and huge global increases in per
capita income between today and ca. 2065. In other words, a much better world may be aborning just
ahead of us, all other things being equal.
The apparent slowdown in the rate of global population growth is the really good news. The bad news is
that improved standards of living and directly related increases in per capita GDP that produce substantial
improvement in the lives of ordinary people (and inevitable reduction in the birth rate when women finally
take charge of their bodies and their own lives) are inextricably linked to increases in the total demand for
energy in many different forms. In fact, the relationship between per capita GDP and energy use per
capita is very well-behaved, as illustrated in following Figure:
High taxes on fuels
have helped Germany,
France, and U.K.
India
Note – India added to Huber & Mills chart: in 2008 India (not shown in the published version of the
above Huber-Mills‟ chart) had an estimated GDP ($1000/capita) of 1.327 and Energy Use (Million
Btu/capita) of 12.6, placing it squarely near the origin of the bold arrow in the lowermost corner of the left
quadrant. Also please again recall that India and China now account for ~40% of the world‟s population.
Upward progression of countries along the trajectory of the bold blue arrow creates increases in total
world energy demand. The faster GDP per capita rises in all countries, the faster total global energy
demand increases. Thus, expansion in the world‟s demand for energy is inextricably linked to economic
growth and improved standards of living for greater numbers of people.
2 | Lewis G. Larsen Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved September 1, 2011
8. Unexpectedly faster deceleration of world population growth; potential consequences for the next 50 years
Roughly speaking, a simple extrapolation of the above chart implies that if India and China are to attain
the same energy use per capita as Western Europe by the year 2048, their combined demand for energy
will have to increase by ~14% per year for the next 40 years. If energy supplies (whatever their form
might be) are not increased correspondingly over the same time-frame, such huge demand increases will
be unsustainable. That is, the price of energy will inexorably rise to whatever levels are necessary to
throttle-back vast global demand for energy-equivalents.
In a recent peer-reviewed paper, a group of academics have rigorously confirmed exactly the same
causal relationship shown in previous chart adapted from Huber & Mills (2005):
“Energetic Limits to Economic Growth"
J. Brown et al.
BioScience 61 pp. 19 - 26 (January 2011)
Source URL = http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/resources/Davidson.pdf
A nontechnical document that readers may also find useful in this context is a 16-page excerpt from a
Lattice Energy LLC White Paper as follows:
“Commercializing low energy nuclear reactions (LENRs): cutting energy's Gordian knot - a Grand
Challenge for science and energy”
Lewis Larsen
April 12, 2010
Source URL = http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/cfakepathlattice-energy-llc-white-paper-
excerptapril-12-2010
For readers interested in technical aspects of LENRs, the physics „core‟ of the W-L theory of LENRs titled,
“Ultra low momentum neutron catalyzed nuclear reactions on metallic hydride surfaces,” was
published in March 2006 in a well respected, peer reviewed, mainstream scientific journal, The European
Physical Journal C - Particles and Fields. In October 2010, a 21-page review paper summarizing all of the
publicly-released W-L theory work to date titled, “A primer for electroweak induced low-energy
nuclear reactions,” was published in a peer-reviewed journal of the Indian Academy of Science,
Pramana - Journal of Physics
Source URL = http://www.ias.ac.in/pramana/v75/p617/fulltext.pdf
st
For the balance of the 21 century, reducing the effective price and increasing the availability of readily
usable, new sources of energy, while at the same time reducing emissions of CO 2 into the atmosphere,
are the keys to sustainable economic growth and continued widespread global improvement in the
average standard of living.
Prof. Fischer‟s book is well worth reading; in fact, it is brilliant scholarship in my opinion. Buy a copy and
decide for yourselves.
I hope that you find this report interesting and thought provoking; questions are always welcome.
Thank you for your interest.
Lew Larsen
September 1, 2011
Energy, broadly defined, has become the most important
geostrategic and geoeconomic challenge of our time.”
Thomas Friedman, New York Times, April 28, 2006
3 | Lewis G. Larsen Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved September 1, 2011