Presented by FASTRAC International Advisor Sam Chittick at the Muslim Mindanao Autonomy Roundtable Discussion Series at the Senate of the Philippines on Aug. 17, 2015. The Institute for Autonomy and Governance is organizing the discussions in partnership with the Senate Economic Planning Office (SEPO), Local Government Development Foundation (LOGODEF) and the Senate-Muslim Advocates for Peace and Progress.

1. Political Transitions after a Peace Agreement:
Opportunities for the Bangsamoro
Sam Chittick, International Advisor, FASTRAC
August 17, 2015

2. What do we know from international
experience about political transitions?
• No fixed formula
• Importance of context
• ‘Consent of the governed’

3. Common
understanding
of the origins of
the conflict?
Source: World Bank 2005
‘Joint Needs Assessment
for Reconstruction &
Development of Conflict
Affected Areas in
Mindanao’

4. Common characteristics of political transitions
• Turbulent
• Non-linear
• Long term
• Complex
• Joint
• Opportunity

5. Key Questions
• From what?
• To what?
• CAB: “aspiration to chart their political future through a democratic
process that will secure their identity and posterity and allow for
meaningful self-governance”
• “promoting peace and stability”
• “transformation into peaceful and progressive communities”
• “honor, justice and dignity for all concerned”

6. What are the international lessons that are relevant
for the Bangsamoro political transition?
“Securing the social contract” between citizens and the state, namely:
i. building responsive and accountable institutions,
ii. promoting inclusive political processes,
iii. fostering resilient state-society relations
Source: UNDP Governance for Peace – securing the social contract, 2012

7. What are the international lessons that are relevant
for the Bangsamoro political transition?
• Importance of institutions: formal and informal, that will reflect the
new political settlement
• Critical importance of security during the transition
• Economic conditions affect political stability; economic spoilers
threaten transition.
• A focus on growth without inclusive, pro-poor policy development
maintains the status quo.
• Promoting public participation in policy development is essential for
transitions to progress.
• New openings for engaging citizens
Source: Political Economy of Transitions – comparative experiences, UNDP 2013

8. What are the international lessons that are relevant
for the Bangsamoro political transition?
• Legitimacy
• Joint decision making
• Inclusive institutions and processes
• Importance of security, justice and jobs

9. Central finding: “strengthening
legitimate institutions and
governance to provide citizen
security, justice and jobs is
crucial to break cycles of
violence.”

10. Strengthening Legitimate Institutions
Source: World Bank 2011 ‘WDR – Conflict, Security & Development’

11. Institutional Transformation

12. Citizen security
• Practical and symbolic values are both important
• Day to day impact on quality of life
• Most visible element of the State
• Impacts beyond basic security:
Local taxes in ARMM historically low, 2% of total revenue is local
taxes, reflecting questions of trust and credibility
• Security must be guaranteed for all, equally
• Opportunity to shift from focusing on threats by groups to
threats by individuals. Implies a shift from military to police.
“A well functioning security sector not only directly enforces the
law, but by building the legitimacy of the legal enforcement, it
creates incentives for the population to respect the laws of their
country from internal conviction rather than external
intimidation.” (WDR 2011)

13. Security: Timor Leste
Source: Asia Foundation surveys, graphic from:
http://www.developmentprogress.org/blog/2014/05/06/

14. Citizen Security - Opportunities
• Three possible areas of focus:
• reductions in different forms of violence by different actors (including armed
violence, violence in the home, violence perpetrated by the state, etc.)
• e.g. Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System
• e.g. local efforts against ‘rido’
• improved perception of citizen security (past, present and future)
• e.g. polling of citizens (Asia Foundation)
• strengthening of state and non-state security structures
• Needs long-term commitment
• Chance to make communities part of the solution
Source: ODI Working Paper 04/April 2014

15. Citizen Security - Opportunities
• Concrete steps flagged in draft BBL & WDR:
• Community policing – redefine community relationships?
• Redeployment of forces
• Mechanisms of public accountability for Bangsamoro Police

16. Justice
• The political transition and establishment of new institutions is
necessary, but not sufficient.
• A robust process of managing and dealing with the past is also
essential.
• Formal and informal justice systems should be part of the solution,
especially for transition period
• Every transitional justice process is different
• e.g. TJRC v Timor v South Africa v Nth Ireland

17. Justice - Opportunities
• Inclusion – important for building bridges to the previously
marginalized
• e.g. birth registration for marginalized.
• Traditional justice systems - create bridges between the formal and
informal systems in the early stages of transitions.
• e.g. International Alert research into informal land trade.
• Land – a key driver of ‘horizontal’ conflict, chance for new
institution/s?

18. Justice - Opportunities
• Public financial management as a justice tool: directing funds to
underserved/excluded groups, ensuring information available for
them
• Social protection programs: can target those previously excluded
• Multi-sectoral community empowerment programs that allow
excluded groups to decide their own priorities and investments (CDD
etc.)
• Social accountability mechanisms: incentives for citizens and
communities to monitor the expenditures most directly affecting their
welfare.

19. Jobs
• Job creation requires action on four fronts:
(a) policy/regulatory environment;
(b) infrastructure;
(c) skills development; and
(d) direct market interventions - cash for work, etc.
• Private sector is responsible for >80% of GDP…
however it can take years to boost private sector
investments in conflict areas.
• Need public sector to fill the breach in transition.

20. Jobs: for who?
• Challenges of job creation in conflict-affected areas are different than
rest of the country
• Outside investors are reluctant, and there is little local capital, skills
base is low
• Ex-combatant cohort is different from other groups, need targeted,
tailored programs
• Differentiated programs are necessary

21. Jobs: Aceh lessons after 9 yrs
• Aceh is at peace, and prospects for enduring stability are good.
• However, widespread perception that GAM rule has failed to
translate into improvements in the daily life of people.
• Poverty levels (19.6% in 2011) and unemployment still well
above the national average. Growth is lagging.
• High levels of public expenditure have yet to translate in
substantial development outcomes.
• Endemic corruption and diversion of public revenues by ex-GAM
for personal enrichment, patronage and campaign funding.
• Persisting lack of trust in government above village-level (TAF
2013).

22. What development measures are most likely
to support a peaceful transition?
• To break repeated cycles of violence, political transitions need to (i)
build confidence by building inclusive-enough coalitions, and (ii)
transform the institutions that provide citizen security, justice and
jobs.
• Creating the legitimate institutions that can prevented repeated
violence is slow.
• Confidence building: build inclusive-enough coalitions; and identify
local community priorities to deliver early results programs.
• Engagement by all parties with civil society
• Focus on accountability and addressing exclusion during transition
Source: World Bank 2011 ‘Managing Peaceful Transitions – Evidence & Experience’