ASSESSING
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE
               2012
                    Mykhailo Minakov
     Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
                    November 2, 2012
ASSESSING ALL FOUR PHASES OF ELECTIONS

•  definition of the electoral rules
•  pre-election campaign
•  the vote
•  translation of votes into seats
DEFINITION OF THE ELECTORAL RULES
•  new electoral Law (November 2011) reinstated a mixed electoral
   system
•  electoral Law novelties:
    •  higher party threshold – 5%
    •  only parties to compete, not blocks of parties
    •  extended rights of domestic nonpartisan observers
•  additional Law on elections (July 2, 2012)
    •  video cameras in all voting chambers
    •  Internet transmission of voting process
DEFINITION OF THE ELECTORAL DISTRICTS
PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN
•    party competition
      •  registration of candidates on party lists at the Central Election Commission has
         been rather smooth
      •  restricted access to media for opposition parties
•    majoritarian campaigns
      •  misuse of administrative resources is widespread
      •  direct buy of votes
•    composition of electoral commissions
      •  final outcome of lottery did not ensure a balanced DEC composition
PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN
THE VOTE DAY
•  smooth voting around the country
•  developed registry of voters
•  ineffective procedure for correction of the voters’ registry in case
   of error
•  six exit-polls with more or less equal results
•  overall positive assessment of the voting day
THE VOTE DAY : EXIT POLLS
THE VOTE DAY : VOTER TURNOUT
                          2012 – 57,98%

                          2007 – 57,94%
                           
                          2006 – 58,97%
                           
                          2002 – 65,22%
PROPORTIONAL ELECTIONS RESULTS
PROPORTIONAL ELECTIONS RESULTS
PROPORTIONAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

  •  5 parties to seat in the Parliament
  •  approx. 6% of votes were given to parties under threshold
  •  first time ever – relative majority of the ruling party
  •  two parties with articulate totalitarian ideologies
  •  United Opposition visibly distantiated from democratic values
  •  no champions of democracy
MAJORITARIAN ELECTIONS RESULTS
MAJORITARIAN ELECTIONS RESULTS

  •  most of manipulations reported in connection with the
     majoritarian elections
  •  outcome in favor of financial groups
  •  doubtful representation of local constituencies
FOUR-DAYS LONG COUNTING NIGHT
TRANSLATION OF VOTES INTO SEATS

•  non-transparent counting
•  slow counting in several districts in comparison with other
   districts
•  quality of counting process made the whole outcome of elections
   questionable
TRANSLATION OF VOTES INTO SEATS

Parliamentary elections 2012

  • 1.
    ASSESSING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS INUKRAINE 2012 Mykhailo Minakov Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars November 2, 2012
  • 2.
    ASSESSING ALL FOURPHASES OF ELECTIONS •  definition of the electoral rules •  pre-election campaign •  the vote •  translation of votes into seats
  • 3.
    DEFINITION OF THEELECTORAL RULES •  new electoral Law (November 2011) reinstated a mixed electoral system •  electoral Law novelties: •  higher party threshold – 5% •  only parties to compete, not blocks of parties •  extended rights of domestic nonpartisan observers •  additional Law on elections (July 2, 2012) •  video cameras in all voting chambers •  Internet transmission of voting process
  • 4.
    DEFINITION OF THEELECTORAL DISTRICTS
  • 5.
    PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN •  party competition •  registration of candidates on party lists at the Central Election Commission has been rather smooth •  restricted access to media for opposition parties •  majoritarian campaigns •  misuse of administrative resources is widespread •  direct buy of votes •  composition of electoral commissions •  final outcome of lottery did not ensure a balanced DEC composition
  • 6.
  • 7.
    THE VOTE DAY • smooth voting around the country •  developed registry of voters •  ineffective procedure for correction of the voters’ registry in case of error •  six exit-polls with more or less equal results •  overall positive assessment of the voting day
  • 8.
    THE VOTE DAY: EXIT POLLS
  • 9.
    THE VOTE DAY: VOTER TURNOUT 2012 – 57,98% 2007 – 57,94%   2006 – 58,97%   2002 – 65,22%
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
    PROPORTIONAL ELECTIONS RESULTS •  5 parties to seat in the Parliament •  approx. 6% of votes were given to parties under threshold •  first time ever – relative majority of the ruling party •  two parties with articulate totalitarian ideologies •  United Opposition visibly distantiated from democratic values •  no champions of democracy
  • 13.
  • 14.
    MAJORITARIAN ELECTIONS RESULTS •  most of manipulations reported in connection with the majoritarian elections •  outcome in favor of financial groups •  doubtful representation of local constituencies
  • 15.
  • 16.
    TRANSLATION OF VOTESINTO SEATS •  non-transparent counting •  slow counting in several districts in comparison with other districts •  quality of counting process made the whole outcome of elections questionable
  • 17.