In this presentation, you will discover the 'truthiness' (for those of you who are Stephen Colbert fans) of marketing attribution. Modern marketers now depend on a growing number of digital and offline channels - web, email, social, search, display, video, television, out of home, radio and many more - to deliver messages to their audiences. Faced with increased accountability for ROI and frequent requests for campaign metrics, marketers are scrambling to determine which channels are performing best and how to allocate budget to maximize sales. It’s no wonder that marketers are rushing to attribution solutions, in an effort to decipher data and assign credit to specific channels and touchpoints. However, marketers often face a rude awakening when they realize that attribution models fail to reveal the whole truth and can’t answer some of their most urgent, time-sensitive questions. Join us to gain a clear understanding of the four key limitations of attribution and learn how to: - Establish a data foundation and measurement framework - Develop an “always-on” view of multi-channel performance - Test and optimize to assess and determine lift

1. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.1
The Truthiness of
Marketing Attribution
Benefits, Drawbacks, and the Criticality of a Strong Data Foundation

2. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.2
Today’s Speaker
Matt Jacobs
VP, Strategic Marketing
Origami Logic

3. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.3
73%of CEOs think their CMOs
lack business credibility
and aren’t the business
growth generators they
should be
80%of CEOs claim they’ve lost
trust in their marketers
Source: http://chiefexecutive.net/are-cmos-unfit-for-the-job-how-the-ceo-can-make-a-difference/

4. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.4
• More channels
• More tools
• More data
• ROI demands

5. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.5
Attribution is so hot right now

6. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.6
Brands are trying to answer two critical questions
Marketers are securing budgets for Attribution and Marketing Mix Modeling
(MMM) in hopes of answering the following:
1. Which channels are driving sales?
2. How should budget be allocated across channels to maximize sales?

7. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.7
According to an IDG survey, many execs worry
about challenges holding back their attribution efforts
More resources are going into analytics tools
Attribution is a BIG focus, but the prerequisites are often a bigger problem
mentioned data
collection and
accuracy
point to reporting,
accountability and
accuracy
said staff skills were
problematic
%
50
%
59
%
56
Sources: emarketer, IDG “Executives Reveal Potential Pain Points of Marketing Attribution” – Oct 2015

8. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.8
What’s challenging about attribution?

9. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.9
What are brands trying to accomplish with attribution?
The answer can be framed in two ways
1. What are attribution products designed to do today?
2. What are marketers trying to use attribution products for beyond
what they’re designed to do?
Assign an influence value or “credit” to marketing channels or touch points
• Obtain a unified view of the customer purchase path across as many channels as possible
• Analyze cross-channel behaviors to understand the customer journey (“speed to insight”)
• Leverage the data to fuel interaction strategies – e.g., RTB, personalization, etc.
(“instantly correct course”)

10. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.10
What are brands trying to accomplish with attribution?
The answer can be framed in two ways
1. What are attribution products designed to do today?
2. What are marketers trying to use attribution products for beyond
what they’re designed to do?
Assign an influence value or “credit” to marketing channels or touch points
• Obtain a unified view of the customer purchase path across as many channels as possible
• Analyze cross-channel behaviors to understand the customer journey (“speed to insight”)
• Leverage the data to fuel interaction strategies – e.g., RTB, personalization, etc.
(“instantly correct course”)
Why is this problematic?

11. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.11
Attribution doesn’t address the problem (but claims to!)
Recall the two critical questions marketers are securing budgets to address -
and intend to use Attribution to answer:
1. Which channels are driving sales?
2. How should budget be allocated across channels to maximize sales?
Here’s the rub: attribution cannot answer these questions!
Let’s illustrate why…

12. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.12
Most attribution vendors fail to capture reality
Apportioning credit to the parts before understanding the whole will often result in the wrong answer
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Most Attribution Vendors Reality
Brand Sales (direct + channel) TV Print Radio WOM PPC Email Display Social Sponsorships
Conversions
are influenced
by many other
channels
PPC
Email
Display
Social
Digital
Sponsorships

13. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.13
What ALL attribution vendors get wrong
Just because a channel was measurably involved doesn’t mean that channel deserves credit!
PSA
Display
Conversions
(Attribution)
What’s
typically
credited
Display
Conversions
(Reality)
Naturally occurring
conversions that
should NOT be
credited
Incremental
conversions that
should be credited
Display Example (illustrative)
Giving 100% credit is deeply flawed

14. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.14
Now you know why most of this doesn’t matter
0% 0% 0% 100% $$
25% 25% 25% 25% $$
35% 15% 15% 35% $$
50% 25% 15% 10% $$
20% 45% 30% 5% $$
40% 10% 35% 15% $$
Last touch
Even weighting
U-based (first , last, middle)
Path position
Attribution pattern
Custom attribution
TBD TBD TBD TBD TBDAlgorithmic attribution

15. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.15
Now you know why most of this doesn’t matter
0% 0% 0% 100% $$
25% 25% 25% 25% $$
35% 15% 15% 35% $$
50% 25% 15% 10% $$
20% 45% 30% 5% $$
40% 10% 35% 15% $$
Last touch
Even weighting
U-based (first , last, middle)
Path position
Attribution pattern
Custom attribution
TBD TBD TBD TBD TBDAlgorithmic attribution
If you can’t assess lift because the
methods you’re using are inherently
wrong, apportioning credit is pointless
(and worse than useless)

16. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.16
There’s another skeleton in the closet...
Attribution is typically focused on short-term effects and time horizons that are too small to matter
Attribution is often conducted monthly or quarterly, and predominantly relies on cookie data, thus
1. Limiting the richness of the data set
2. Skewing results to short-term effects
Makes it difficult to accurately attribute the
importance of online touchpoints
Biases marketers to allocate budget towards short-
term initiatives
Those short-term effects typically comprise 10% - 20% of total sales. The brand –
a longer-term asset – accounts for the rest
Let’s illustrate why that’s problematic…

17. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.17
There’s another skeleton in the closet... (continued)
When the output of attribution is biased towards short-term effects, the marketing team will maniacally
focus on maximizing those drivers (with attribution, that typically means digital channels)
If they work really, really hard, their results might increase sales by 10% (among 20% of buyers)
This situation – which is not an uncommon outcome after attribution – could be remedied with models that
account for short and long-term effects, but attribution is not natively set up to accomplish that
Attribution can be valuable for surgical micro-changes in select channels, but is not conducive to
large budget or channel mix changes (unless you want to lose your job!)
% of Sales
% Increase from
Op2miza2on
% Increase in Sales
Short-­‐term effects
20%
10%
2.0%
Long-­‐term effects
80%
-­‐5%
-­‐4.0%
Losing focus on the other
80% can generate a net
loss for the business!

18. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.18
Maturity Path: Prerequisites to Attribution

19. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.19
Everything begins with a strong data foundation
Multiple steps must be taken to understand MROI and gain the agility to leverage outputs from attribution
When to use over time
LowMaturityRequiredHigh
GET A HOLISTIC, “ALWAYS ON” VIEW OF PERFORMANCE
• Automate multi-channel measurement (collect, cleanse, categorize, structure, enhance, harmonize)
• Harness multi-channel and audience data to develop reporting and establish org-wide knowledge
• Conduct exploratory analyses, create hypotheses for testing
ASSESS AND DETERMINE LIFT
• Conduct channel and audience tests to quantify naturally occurring conversion volumes
• Test investment allocations and understand outputs before attempting Attribution or MMM
• Observe effects across channels to develop new testing hypotheses
ESTABLISH YOUR DATA FOUNDATION AND MEASUREMENT FRAMEWORK
• Complete a measurement plan and data flow schematic for all key touch points in the customer journey
• Implement measurement to assess individual channel performance
• Expand measurement to additional channels, leveraging tag management and data distribution utilities as needed
3
2
1

20. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.20
Marketing measurement and optimization is required thereafter…
Signals from all channels are brought into a
solution and organized into a marketing
context. Validation, gap filling, back-fetching,
and other activities are conducted to further
refine the data
Data is then enriched and harmonized. Tagging,
comparisons, adaptive aggregations,
calculations, and segmentation are completed
Results are expressed via story feeds,
dashboards and other visualizations. Search,
filtration, collaboration, altering and
notifications

21. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.21
Where different approaches complement one another
Comprehensive Marketing Performance Management
Data Collection and Refinement
(collect, cleanse, categorize, customize, and harmonize all marketing data)
Analysis and Exploration
(channels, campaigns, creatives, audiences)
Data Activation
(alerting, reporting, dashboards, visualization)
Factors in all channels?
Uses algorithms/rules to assign “credit” to channels?
Can simulate outcomes at different investment levels?
Calculates interaction effects between channels?
Designed for frequent use throughout Marketing?
Creates a unified view of customer interactions (user level)
Informs personalization and customer engagement efforts
Capable of acting on interaction strategies (testing, RTB, etc.)
Marke2ng Mix
Modeling
Marke2ng
Measurement &
Op2miza2on
AIribu2on

22. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.22
How sophisticated does your organization need to be?
Low Required Analytical Maturity of Marketing Org. High
LowCost,Effort,andTime*RequiredHigh
* Time = time to implement and time to results
Marketing
Measurement &
Optimization
Attribution
MMM

23. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.23
How actionable and frequent are the outputs?
Low How actionable are results / efforts? . High
LowFrequencyofUse`High
Marketing Measurement
& Optimization
Attribution
MMM

24. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.24
What’s the sweat-to-equity for each approach?
Low How actionable are results / efforts? . High
LowCost,Effort,andTime*RequiredHigh
Marketing
Measurement &
Optimization
Attribution
MMM
* Time = time to implement and time to results

25. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.25
Where is this all heading?
1. Marketing signal measurement will continue to evolve as the core data and reporting
foundation for marketers
• Enhanced data collection, customization, harmonization, exploration and visualization
• Reconciliation for attribution and MMM
• Data exhaust as fuel for mix modeling
2. Attribution and MMM advancements will address historical shortcomings
• Better integration for offline and mobile data
• Reduced focus on “crediting,” and more on providing a unified view of the customer journey
• Convergence of multiple capabilities (e.g., attribution, MMM, testing, ad tech, etc.)
• Blended analytical approaches will become the new norm

26. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.26
About Origami Logic
Helping Global Brands Master
Their Marketing Performance
Tier-1 Investors
Experienced Leaders
& Domain Expertise
Rapid Deployment
with Smart Services
Agility with
Daily Insights
Search and
Organize with
Dynamic Data Model
Unify All Campaign
Performance Data
Our Platform

27. © Origami Logic, Inc. Proprietary and confidential. Not for redistribution.27
Thank You
www.origamilogic.com | info@origamilogic.com