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Military Decision Making Process (Mar 08) 3

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Military Decision Making Process (Mar 08) 3

  1. 1. Significant Impacts <ul><li>Why Event Temp? </li></ul><ul><li>Where & When to Shoot, Jam & Maneuver </li></ul><ul><li>What to Shoot, Jam & Maneuver Against </li></ul><ul><li>Form the Basis for Planning Collection Strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Synch Intel with Friendly Operations </li></ul>
  2. 2. High-Value Target (HVT) / High-Payoff Target (HPT) <ul><li>High-value target (HVT) - assets the the threat commander requires for the successful completion of a specific COA </li></ul><ul><li>High-payoff target (HPT) - target whose loss to the threat will contribute to the success of the friendly COA </li></ul>FM 34-130, 1994, p. Glossary-7
  3. 3. 13 Categories of HVTs <ul><li>C3 </li></ul><ul><li>Fire Support </li></ul><ul><li>Maneuver </li></ul><ul><li>Air Defense </li></ul><ul><li>Engineer </li></ul><ul><li>RISTA </li></ul><ul><li>NBC </li></ul><ul><li>EW </li></ul><ul><li>Bulk Fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Ammunition storage sites and distribution points </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance and repair units </li></ul><ul><li>Lift </li></ul><ul><li>Lines of Communication </li></ul>As you identify key assets, group them into one of the 13 categories used to develop target sets.
  4. 4. High Value Targets T-90S / BMP-3K / AMX-10 HOT-3 / PZF3T600 Maneuver 3 2S5 / 2S19 / 2S23 / W87 Fire Support BRM-3K / BMP-3M / MOTORCYCLE / SPF / DISMOUNTED OP ISR 1 System Category Phase T-90S / BMP-3K / PZF3T600 Maneuver BRM-3K / BMP-3M / MOTORCYCLE / SPF / DISMOUNTED OP ISR 2 GMZ / UMZ / BAT-2 / MDK / IMR / PMZ Engineer 2S5 / 2S19 / 2S23 / W87 Fire Support UMZ / GMZ / IMR / BAT / PMZ Engineer GMZ / UMZ / BAT-2 / MDK / IMR / PMZ Engineer 2S5 / 2S19 / 2S23 / W87 Fire Support
  5. 5. Event Matrix Dismounted Squad NAI 10 EN Recon NAI 2 COA 4 CO Sized element Vic EA Smash South Dismounted Squad NAI 9 COA 3 CO sized element Vic EA Smash Center Dismounted Squad NAI 8 3 Armored Vehicles NAI 5 EN Recon NAI 3 COA 2 CO sized element Vic EA Smash North Dismounted Squad NAI 7 3 Armored vehicles NAI 4 EN Recon NAI 3 COA 1 H + 120 H + 90 H + 60 H + 30
  6. 6. Briefing the Initial IPB - Technique <ul><li>Define the battlefield environment. (Initial operations graphics.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify significant characteristics of the environment. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify the area of operations and battle space. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Define the limits of the area of interest. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Describe the battlefield’s effects. (MCOO & blowups, as appropriate.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Describe the battlefield's effect on threat and friendly capabilities and broad courses of action (terrain, weather, other). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Evaluate the threat. (Charts & sketches, as appropriate.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Describe the threat model (doctrinal templates, tactics, HVTs). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Describe capabilities (composition, disposition, strength; capabilities and vulnerabilities; recent activities). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Determine threat courses of action. (SITTEMPs & Event Template.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify likely objectives and desired end state. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Describe likely threat courses of action. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify initial collection requirements (NAIs). </li></ul></ul>FM 34-130, 1994, pp. 2-1 thru 2-2
  7. 7. Determine Specified, Implied, and Essential Tasks <ul><li>Specified tasks - those specifically assigned to a unit by its higher headquarters. </li></ul><ul><li>Implied tasks - those that must be performed to accomplish a specified task, but which are not stated in the higher headquarters’ order. </li></ul><ul><li>Essential task(s) - must be executed to accomplish the mission (task and purpose). </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 3 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-18 thru 3-19
  8. 8. Review Available Assets <ul><li>Examine additions to and deletions from the current task organization, support relationships, and status of all units. </li></ul><ul><li>Determine if assets are sufficient to perform all specified and implied tasks. </li></ul><ul><li>Identify additional resources needed for mission success. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 4 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-19
  9. 9. Determine Constraints <ul><li>Identify and understand constraints. </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints take the form of requirements to do something or a prohibition on action. </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints restrict the freedom of action a subordinate commander has for planning. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 5 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-19
  10. 10. Identify Critical Facts and Assumptions <ul><li>Facts are statements of known data concerning the situation including enemy and friendly dispositions, available troops, unit strengths, and material readiness. </li></ul><ul><li>Assumptions are suppositions about the current or future situation that are assumed to be true in the absence of facts. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>They take the place of necessary, but unavailable facts. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>An assumption is appropriate if it meets the tests of validity and necessity. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Validity means the assumption is likely to be true. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Necessity is whether or not the assumption is essential for planning. </li></ul></ul></ul>Mission Analysis Step 6 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-20
  11. 11. Conduct Risk Assessment <ul><li>When assessing the risk of hazards in operations, the commander and staff must look at two kinds of risk, tactical risk and accident risk . </li></ul><ul><li>Tactical risk is risk associated with hazards that exist due to the presence of the enemy on the battlefield. </li></ul><ul><li>Accident risk includes all operational risk considerations other than tactical risk, and can include activities associated with hazards concerning friendly personnel, equipment readiness, and environmental conditions. </li></ul><ul><li>Risk management steps: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify hazards. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assess hazards. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop controls, determine residual risk, and make risk decision. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Implement controls. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Supervise and evaluate. </li></ul></ul>Mission Analysis Step 7 FM 5-0, 2005, pp. 3-20 thru 3-21
  12. 12. Risk Management Worksheet <ul><li>Identify significant tactical and accident hazards. </li></ul><ul><li>Assess hazards in terms of initial probability, effect, and risk level. </li></ul><ul><li>Develop controls, determine residual risk, and make risk decision. </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-21
  13. 13. Determine Initial CCIR and EEFI <ul><li>CCIR identify information needed by the commander to support his battlefield visualization and to make critical decisions. </li></ul><ul><li>The commander alone decides what information is critical, based on his experience, the mission, and the higher’s intent. </li></ul><ul><li>CCIR are situation dependant and specified by the commander for each operation. </li></ul><ul><li>CCIR include PIR and FFIR. Though EEFI is not CCIR, it is a commander’s priority. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 8 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-21 thru 3-22
  14. 14. Elements of CCIR <ul><li>Priority intelligence requirement (PIR). </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Information about the enemy. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How I see the enemy.* </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Friendly force information requirements (FFIR). </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Information about his or adjacent unit capabilities. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How I see myself.* </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Essential elements of friendly information (EEFI). </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Friendly capabilities or assets which, when location is known by the enemy, provides him an advantage if he interdicts that asset </li></ul></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-8
  15. 15. PIR <ul><li>An intelligence requirement associated with a decision that will affect the overall success of the commander’s mission. </li></ul><ul><li>PIR are prioritized among themselves and may change in priority over the course of the operation’s conduct. </li></ul><ul><li>Can be information about the enemy or terrain. </li></ul><ul><li>Effective PIR . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide intelligence required to support a single decision. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ask only one question. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on a specific fact, event or activity. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Are time sensitive. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Examples. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will the enemy defend on the forward slope of OBJ SAW? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will the enemy counterattack use AA 2? </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Determine Initial ISR Plan <ul><li>Identify gaps in the intelligence available and determine an initial reconnaissance and surveillance plan to acquire information based on available reconnaissance assets. </li></ul><ul><li>Update CCIR and taskings to reconnaissance as they collect information and other intelligence sources fill in gaps. </li></ul><ul><li>Initial ISR annex should contain, as a minimum: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>AO for reconnaissance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mission statement. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Task organization. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reconnaissance objective. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PIR and IR. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LD/LC time. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial NAIs. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Routes to AO and passage of lines instructions. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Communications and logistics support. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fire support measures. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Medical evacuation. </li></ul></ul>Mission Analysis Step 9 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-22 thru 3-23
  18. 18. Update the Operational Timeline <ul><li>Refine the initial plan for the use of available time. </li></ul><ul><li>Compare the time needed to accomplish essential tasks to the higher headquarters’ time line to ensure mission accomplishment is possible in the allotted time. </li></ul><ul><li>Compare the time line to the enemy time line developed during the IPB. </li></ul><ul><li>Determine window of opportunity for exploitation or times when the unit will be at risk from enemy activity. </li></ul><ul><li>Specify when and where for briefings and rehearsals. </li></ul><ul><li>Maximize available planning time by sending additional warning orders as detailed planning develops. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 10 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-23
  19. 19. Write the Restated Mission <ul><li>Prepare a restated mission for the unit based on the mission analysis. </li></ul><ul><li>The restated mission will include on-order missions; be-prepared missions will be in the concept of operation. </li></ul><ul><li>Consists of Who, What, Where, When, Why. </li></ul><ul><li>Along with Commander’s Intent, provides the primary focus for subordinate actions during planning, preparation, execution, and assessing. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 11 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-23 thru 3-26
  20. 20. Conduct a Mission Analysis Brief <ul><li>Given to both the commander and staff, this helps to commander and staff develop a shared vision of the requirements for the upcoming operation. </li></ul><ul><li>Focuses on relevant conclusions reached and staff members only present relevant information the commander needs to develop a situational understanding. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 12 <ul><li>Mission Analysis Brief Outline </li></ul><ul><li>Mission and intent of HQs two levels up. </li></ul><ul><li>Mission, intent, concept of operation, and deception plan/objective of the headquarters one level up. </li></ul><ul><li>Review initial planning guidance. </li></ul><ul><li>Initial IPB products. </li></ul><ul><li>Specified, implied, and essential tasks. </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints . </li></ul><ul><li>Forces available. </li></ul><ul><li>Initial Risk Assessment. </li></ul><ul><li>Recommended initial CCIR and EEFI. </li></ul><ul><li>Recommended time line. </li></ul><ul><li>Recommended collaborative planning sessions. </li></ul><ul><li>Recommended restated mission. </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-26
  21. 21. Approve the Restated Mission <ul><li>Immediately after the mission analysis briefing, the commander approves a restated mission. </li></ul><ul><li>Can be the staff’s recommended restated mission, a modified version of the staff’s recommendation, or one that the commander has developed himself. </li></ul><ul><li>Once approved, the restated mission becomes the unit’s mission. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 13 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-27
  22. 22. Develop the Initial Cdr’s Intent <ul><li>Used to focus planning and gives the commander a means of indirect control of subordinate elements during execution. </li></ul><ul><li>Commander’s intent is a clear concise statement of what the force must do to succeed with respect to the enemy and the terrain and to the desired end state. </li></ul><ul><li>Intent provides the link between the mission and the concept of operation by stating key tasks that, along with the mission, are the basis for subordinates to exercise initiative when unanticipated opportunities arise or when the original concept of operation no longer applies. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 14 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-5,6 & 3-27
  23. 23. Issue the Commander’s Guidance <ul><li>Focuses the staff on COA development, analysis, and comparison. </li></ul><ul><li>Expresses the commander’s visualization, identifies the decisive and shaping operations. </li></ul><ul><li>As a minimum, the commander’s guidance should address . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Specific enemy and friendly COAs to consider or not to consider, and the priority for addressing them. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decisive operation, potential decisive point(s), and potentail key decisions. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CCIR. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ISR guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deception guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fire support guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobility and countermobility guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Security measures to be implemented. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Additional specific priorities for BOS elements. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operational Time line. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Type of order to issue and type of rehearsals to conduct. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborative planning sessions to be conducted. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Any other information the commander wants the staff to consider. </li></ul></ul>Mission Analysis Step 15 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-27 thru 3-28
  24. 24. Issue a Warning Order <ul><li>Immediately after the commander gives his guidance, the staff send subordinate and supporting units a warning order. </li></ul><ul><li>As a minimum, the warning order contains . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Restated mission. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commander’s intent. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Task Organization changes, attachments and detachments. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unit’s AO. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CCIR and EEFI. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reconnaissance to be initiated by subordinate units. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial movement instructions. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Security measures. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deception guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobility and countermobility guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Specific priorities. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Guidance on collaborative events and rehearsals. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Updated operational timeline. </li></ul></ul>Mission Analysis Step 16 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-28 thru 3-29
  25. 25. Review Facts and Assumptions <ul><li>During the rest of the decision-making process, the commander and staff periodically review all available facts and assumptions. </li></ul><ul><li>New facts may alter requirements and analysis of the mission. </li></ul><ul><li>Assumptions may have become facts or may have become invalid. </li></ul><ul><li>Whenever facts or assumptions change, the commander and staff must assess the impact of these changes on the plan and make the necessary adjustments. </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 17 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-29
  26. 26. Mission Analysis Output <ul><li>Updated staff estimates and products. </li></ul><ul><li>Initial IPB </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Enemy SITTEMPs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MCOO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HVT List </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mission analysis briefing. </li></ul><ul><li>Restated mission. </li></ul><ul><li>Initial Commander’s Intent. </li></ul><ul><li>Commander’s Planning Guidance. </li></ul><ul><li>Updated operational time line. </li></ul><ul><li>Warning Order (WARNO #2). </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-16
  27. 27. COA Development <ul><li>The commander’s direct involvement in COA development can greatly aid in producing comprehensive and flexible COAs within the available time. </li></ul><ul><li>COAs must meet the criteria of . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Suitable - accomplishes the mission and complies with the commander’s guidance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Feasible - the unit has the capability to accomplish the mission in terms of available time, space, and resources. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Acceptable - advantage gained by executing the COA justifies the cost in resources, especially casualties. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distinguishable - each COA must differ significantly from others. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Completeness. </li></ul></ul>MDMP Step 3 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-29 thru 3-30
  28. 28. COA Development Steps <ul><li>1. Analyze relative combat power </li></ul><ul><li>2. Generate options </li></ul><ul><li>3. Array forces </li></ul><ul><li>Develop concept of operations </li></ul><ul><li>5. Assign responsibilities </li></ul><ul><li>6. Prepare COA statements and sketches </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-30 thru 3-35
  29. 29. Relative Combat Power Analysis (RCPA) <ul><li>Combat power is the total means of destructive and/or disruptive force that a military unit/formation can apply against the opponent at a given time (FM 1-02) </li></ul><ul><li>Planners compare friendly strengths against enemy weaknesses, and vice versa, for each element of combat power. </li></ul><ul><li>From these comparisons, they may deduce particular vulnerabilities for each force that may be exploitable or may need to be protected. </li></ul><ul><li>These comparisons may provide planners insights into effective force employment and potential decision points. </li></ul>COA Development Step 1 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-30 thru 3-31
  30. 30. Relative Combat Power Analysis (RCPA) <ul><li>Combat power is the total means of destructive and/or disruptive force that a military unit/formation can apply against the opponent at a given time (FM 1-02) </li></ul><ul><li>Planners compare friendly strengths against enemy weaknesses, and vice versa, for each element of combat power. </li></ul><ul><li>From these comparisons, they may deduce particular vulnerabilities for each force that may be exploitable or may need to be protected. </li></ul><ul><li>These comparisons may provide planners insights into effective force employment and potential decision points. </li></ul>COA Development Step 1 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-30 thru 3-31
  31. 31. Analyze Relative Combat Power (1-3) <ul><li>Estimate of both objective and subjective factors. </li></ul><ul><li>Compare the most significant strengths and weakness of each force in terms of combat power: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Friendly capabilities. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Types of operations possible from both enemy/friendly perspectives. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>How/where will enemy be vulnerable. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>How/where friendly forces are vulnerable. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Additional resources required to execute the mission. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>How to allocate existing resources. </li></ul></ul></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, P. 3-30
  32. 32. Analyze Relative Combat Power (2-3) <ul><li>Do not develop and recommend COAs based solely on mathematical force ratios </li></ul><ul><li>Planners combine analysis of force ratios ( comparable companies and platoons ) to intangible aspects of combat power ( strengths/weaknesses ). </li></ul>By comparing friendly strengths against enemy weaknesses, planners deduce vulnerabilities of each force that may be exploitable or may need to be protected. FM 5-0, 2005, P. 3-31
  33. 33. Analyze Relative Combat Power (3-3) <ul><li>Determine what type of operation is feasible by comparing the force ratio with the historical minimum planning ratios for the contemplated combat mission. </li></ul>If the relative combat power of the force produces the effects of the historical minimum-planning ratio then the mission is feasible . FM 5-0, 2005, P. 3-32
  34. 34. Technique for Analyzing Intangibles
  35. 35. Generate Options <ul><li>Each COA should be developed starting at a potential decisive operation identified in the commander’s planning guidance (Purpose). </li></ul><ul><li>Determine shaping operations (Purpose). </li></ul><ul><li>Determine sustaining operations (Purpose). </li></ul><ul><li>Determine essential tasks for each decisive, shaping, and sustaining operation. </li></ul>COA Development Step 2 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-33 thru 3-34
  36. 36. COA Development (Cont’d) <ul><li>Array Forces </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Determine the forces necessary to accomplish the mission and to provide a basis for the scheme of maneuver and then the planners determine the relative combat power required to accomplish each task, starting with the decisive operation and continuing through all shaping operations.. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Develop Concept of Operations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Describes how arrayed forces will accomplish the mission within the commander’s intent. Planners select control measures (graphics) to control subordinate units during the operation. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assign Responsibilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Task organization takes into account the entire battlefield organization. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Generally, a headquarters controls at least two subordinate maneuver units, but not more than five. </li></ul></ul>COA Development Steps 3, 4, & 5 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-34 thru 3-37
  37. 37. Prepare COA Statements & Sketches <ul><li>The COA Statement must clearly portray how the unit will accomplish the mission and explains the concept of operations. </li></ul><ul><li>The sketch provides a picture of the maneuver aspect of the COA. </li></ul><ul><li>Together they cover the who (task organization), What (task), Where, When, and Why (purpose) of subordinate units, and significant risk. </li></ul>COA Development Step 6 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-37 thru 3-41
  38. 38. COA Statement & Sketch <ul><li>Mission Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Intent </li></ul><ul><li>Control Measures </li></ul><ul><li>Prominent Terrain Features </li></ul><ul><li>Legend (if required) </li></ul><ul><li>Task Organization </li></ul><ul><li>COA Statement (technique) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Forms of maneuver or defensive techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decisive point describing the desired result, & why it is decisive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sequential statement of the purposes & tasks of decisive & shaping operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concept of Critical Warfighting Functions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commander’s desired endstate </li></ul></ul>
  39. 39. COA Briefing <ul><li>• An updated IPB </li></ul><ul><li>Possible enemy COAs (event templates) </li></ul><ul><li>• The unit mission statement </li></ul><ul><li>• The commander’s and higher commanders’ intent </li></ul><ul><li>• COA statements and sketches </li></ul><ul><li>• The rationale for each COA, including— </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Considerations that might affect enemy COAs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Critical events for each COA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deductions resulting from the relative combat power analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The reason units are arrayed as shown on the sketch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The reason the staff used the selected control measures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Updated facts and assumptions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>• Recommended evaluation criteria </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-41
  40. 40. Course of Action Analysis <ul><li>Allows the staff to synchronize the WFF for each COA and identify the COA that best accomplishes the mission. </li></ul><ul><li>Helps the commander and staff . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Determine how to maximize combat power against the enemy while protecting the friendly forces and minimizing collateral damage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Further develop a visualization of the battle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Anticipate Battlefield events </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Determine conditions and resources required for success </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Determine when and where to apply the force’s capabilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify coordination requirements to produce synchronized results </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Determine the most flexible course of action </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus IPB on the enemy strengths and weaknesses, and the desired endstate </li></ul></ul>MDMP Step 4 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-42
  41. 41. War-Gaming Process <ul><li>COA Analysis is a DISCIPLINED process. </li></ul><ul><li>The process considers friendly dispositions, strengths, and weaknesses; enemy assets and probable COAs; and characteristics of the AO. </li></ul><ul><li>War gaming tests a COA or improves a developed COA. </li></ul><ul><li>Takes a COA and begins to develop a detailed plan. </li></ul><ul><li>Determines the strengths and weaknesses of each COA. </li></ul><ul><li>Follows an action-reaction-counteraction cycle: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Actions - events initiated by the side with the initiative. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reactions - the other side’s actions in response. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Counteractions - responses to the reactions. </li></ul></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-42 thru 3-50
  42. 42. War-Game Rules <ul><li>Remain objective , not allowing personality or their sensing of “what the commander wants” to influence them. </li></ul><ul><li>Accurately record advantages and disadvantages of each COA as they become evident. </li></ul><ul><li>Continually assess feasibility, acceptability, and suitability of the COA. </li></ul><ul><li>Avoid drawing premature conclusions and gathering facts to support such conclusions. </li></ul><ul><li>Avoid comparing one COA with another during the war game. </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-43
  43. 43. War-Gaming Steps <ul><li>1. Gather the tools. </li></ul><ul><li>2. List all friendly forces. </li></ul><ul><li>3. List assumptions. </li></ul><ul><li>4. List known critical events and decision points . </li></ul><ul><li>5. Determine evaluation criteria. </li></ul><ul><li>6. Select the war-game technique. </li></ul><ul><li>7. Select a method to record and assess the results. </li></ul><ul><li>8. War game the battle and assess the results. </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-45
  44. 44. Gather the Tools <ul><li>War-game on maps, sand tables, or other tools that accurately reflect the nature of the terrain. </li></ul><ul><li>Tools required include, but are not limited to . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current staff estimates. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Event template. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recording method. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Completed COAs, to include maneuver and ISR graphics. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Means to post enemy and friendly unit symbols. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Map of AO. </li></ul></ul>War-Game Step 1 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-44 thru 3-46
  45. 45. List All Friendly Forces <ul><li>Consider all units that can be committed to the operation, paying special attention to support relationships and constrains. </li></ul><ul><li>The friendly force list remains constant for all COAs the staff analyzes. </li></ul>War-Game Step 2 List Assumptions <ul><li>Review previous assumptions for continued validity and necessity. </li></ul>War-Game Step 3 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-46
  46. 46. List Known Critical Events and Decision Points <ul><li>Critical events and decision points must be listed for each enemy COA war-gamed against. </li></ul><ul><li>Critical events are those that directly influence mission accomplishment. They include major events from the unit’s current position through mission accomplishment. </li></ul><ul><li>Decision point is an event, area, or point in the battle space where and when the friendly commander will make a critical decision. </li></ul><ul><li>A decision point will be associated with CCIR that describes what information the commander must have to make the anticipated decision. </li></ul>War-Game Step 4 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-46
  47. 47. H HOUR H + 20 H + 40 H + 120 EA SMASH NAI #1 1 H + 60 TAI #1 TAI #2
  48. 48. Determine Evaluation Criteria <ul><li>Evaluation criteria are those factors the staff uses to measure the relative effectiveness and efficiency of one COA relative to other COAs following the war-game. </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluation criteria change from mission to mission. </li></ul><ul><li>The criteria should look not only at what will create success, but also at what will cause failure. </li></ul><ul><li>Examples of evaluation criteria include . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Doctrinal fundamentals for the kind of operations being conducted. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commander’s guidance and intent. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Level of tactical risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mission accomplishment at a reasonable cost. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Principles of War. </li></ul></ul>War-Game Step 5 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-46 thru 3-47
  49. 49. Select the War-Game Method <ul><li>There are three recommended techniques. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The belt technique divides the battlefield into belts running the width of the area of operations. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The avenue-in-depth technique focuses on one avenue of approach at a time, beginning with the main effort. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The box technique is a detailed analysis of a critical area. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Each one considers the area of interest and all enemy forces affecting the outcome of the operations. </li></ul><ul><li>The methods can be used separately or in combination. </li></ul>War-Game Step 6 FM 5-0, 2005, pp. 3-47 thru 3-48
  50. 50. Select a Method to Record and Display Results <ul><li>Recording the war game’s results provides a record to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Build task organizations. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Synchronize activities. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop decision support templates. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Confirm and refine event templates. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prepare plans or orders. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compare COAs. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Two methods are use to portray the action: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Synchronization matrix. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sketch note. </li></ul></ul>War-Game Step 7 FM 5-0, 2005, pp. 3-48 thru 3-50
  51. 51. Synchronization Matrix Method <ul><li>Synchronization matrix method allows the staff to synchronize the COA across time and space in relation to the enemy COA. </li></ul><ul><li>An advantage of this method is that it can be readily translated into a graphic decision-making product. </li></ul><ul><li>The matrix is developed around selected functional areas or major subordinate commands of the unit. </li></ul><ul><li>Other operations, functions, and units that are to be integrated can be incorporated into the matrix. </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-48
  52. 52. Sketch Note Method <ul><li>Sketch note method uses brief notes concerning critical locations or tasks. </li></ul><ul><li>Notes reference specific locations on the map or relate to general considerations covering broad areas. </li></ul><ul><li>The commander and staff note locations on the map and on a separate wargame worksheet. </li></ul><ul><li>Staff members use sequence numbers to reference the notes to the corresponding location on the map or overlay. </li></ul>FM 101-5-1, MAY 97, p 5-22 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-49 thru 3-50
  53. 53. War-Game the Battle and Assess the Results <ul><li>During war-gaming, the commander and staff . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analyze each selected event by identifying the tasks the force must accomplish one echelon down, using assets two echelons down </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Try to foresee the dynamics of a battle’s action, reaction, and counteraction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify the COA’s strengths and weaknesses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Look at many areas in detail </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conduct risk management ( to include the threat from WMD) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identifies and synchronizes CS and CSS assets required to support the scheme of maneuver </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluate the need for branches to the plan </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The commander can modify the COA based on METT-TC </li></ul>War-Game Step 8 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-50 thru 3-52
  54. 54. War-Game Brief (Optional) <ul><li>Higher headquarters, mission, intent, concept, and deception plan </li></ul><ul><li>Updated IPB (terrain, weather, enemy) </li></ul><ul><li>Enemy COAs war-gamed </li></ul><ul><li>Friendly COAs war-gamed </li></ul><ul><li>Assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>War-gaming technique used </li></ul><ul><li>For each COA war-gamed . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Critical events that were war-gamed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Possible enemy actions and reactions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Modifications to the COA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strengths and weaknesses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Results of the war game </li></ul></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-53
  55. 55. COA Comparison <ul><li>The COA comparison starts with all staff members analyzing and evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of each COA from their perspectives </li></ul><ul><li>The staff compares feasible courses of action to identify the one COA that has the highest probability of success against the most likely enemy COA and the most dangerous enemy COA </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pose the minimum risk to the force and mission accomplishment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Place the force in the best posture for future operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide the most flexibility to meet unexpected threats and opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide maximum latitude for initiative by subordinates </li></ul></ul>MDMP Step 5 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-53
  56. 56. Decision Matrix <ul><li>Evaluation criteria should be those identified during course of action analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Weighting - based on relative importance </li></ul><ul><li>Comparison methods- high/low, +/-, numerical value </li></ul>Recommend COA 2 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-55
  57. 57. Commander’s Decision Briefing <ul><li>After completing its analysis and comparison, the staff identifies its preferred COA and makes a recommendation </li></ul><ul><li>The decision-briefing format includes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Intent of higher commanders one and two level’s up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Current IPB </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Restated mission </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Status of the force and its components </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>COAs considered, including: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Assumptions used in planning </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Results of staff estimates </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Advantages and disadvantages (including risk) of each COA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommended COA </li></ul></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-55 thru 3-56
  58. 58. COA Approval <ul><li>The commander decides on the COA he believes to be the most advantageous </li></ul><ul><li>Once the commander has selected a COA he issues the final planning guidance: </li></ul><ul><li>- A refined commanders intent and new CCIR to support execution </li></ul><ul><li>- Additional guidance on priorities for WFF activities, orders preparation, rehearsal, and preparation </li></ul><ul><li>- Priorities for resources needed to preserve freedom of action and assure continuous sustainment </li></ul><ul><li>- Any risk commanders are willing to accept </li></ul><ul><li>The staff issues a warning order with essential information so that subordinates can refine their plans </li></ul>MDMP Step 6 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-57
  59. 59. Warning Order 3 <ul><li>The WARNO contains the information subordinate units need to refine their plans. It confirms guidance issued in person or by VTC and expand on details not covered by the commander personally. The WARNO issued after COA approval normally contains: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mission </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commanders intent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Updated CCIR and EEFI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concept of operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Principal tasks assigned to subordinate units </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Preparation and rehearsal instructions not included in SOP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Final time line for the operations </li></ul></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-57
  60. 60. Orders Production <ul><li>Based on the commander’s decision and final guidance, the staff refines the COA and completes the plan and prepares to issue the order. </li></ul><ul><li>Finally, the commander reviews and approves orders before the staff reproduces and briefs. </li></ul><ul><li>Order and Annex formats are in Annex G, FM 5-0. </li></ul>MDMP Step 7 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-57
  61. 61. Questions ?

Editor's Notes

  • Summary slide on why develop event templates.