1. Under a business-as-usual scenario, global plastic use is projected to almost triple by 2060, with plastic waste tripling globally and quadrupling in South and East Asia. Short-lived plastics like packaging account for over half of waste generated in the region. 2. Two policy scenarios - Regional Action and Global Ambition - could drastically reduce plastic leakage. The Global Ambition scenario eliminates nearly all mismanaged waste and leakage in South and East Asia by 2060 but costs will be higher for developing countries. 3. Eliminating plastic pollution requires global action across the plastics lifecycle as well as interventions to address existing stocks of plastics in rivers and oceans. International cooperation on issues like financing

1. LESSONS LEARNED
FROM THE GLOBAL
PLASTICS OUTLOOK
3rd Regional Ocean Policy Dialogue
3rd May 2023
Dr. Shardul Agrawala
Head of the Environment and Economy Integration Division
OECD Environment Directorate

2. 2
Outline of this presentation
1. Plastic flows and projections
under business as usual
1. Global overview
2. Regional insights SE Asia
2. Policy scenarios to bend the
plastics curve
3. Efforts required in the South
and East Asia* region and
implementation implications
South and East Asia* excludes China, India, Japan and the Republic of Korea. The Global Plastics Outlook reports refer to this region as “Other non-OECD Asia”.

3. 3
Global use of plastics is growing steadily
In million tonnes (Mt), 1950-2021
156 kg 39 kg
per capita /year in OECD per capita /year in non-OECD
Global Financial
Crisis
COVID-19
“Other Asia” here represents South and East Asia* plus India

4. More than half of plastic waste generated comes from applications with
lifetimes of less than five years
Packaging
40%
Consumer
products
12%
Textiles
11%
Other
applications
37%
4
In 2019, plastic waste generation amounted to 353 Mt

5. Rivers are a key pathway and sink for aquatic leakage
5

6. Under business as usual…
6

7. 7
Global plastics use is on course to almost triple by 2060

8. 8
Plastic waste will triple globally and quadruple in
South and East Asia*
22%
49%
19%
9%
15%
50%
18%
17%
300
0
600
900
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060
Recycled
Incinerated
Landfilled
Mismanaged
45%
42%
4%
9%
23%
51%
11%
15%
0
30
60
90
120
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060
Recycled Incinerated Landfilled Mismanaged
Global S. and E. Asia* (excl. China, India, Japan, RoK)
Half of waste generated will still be landfilled
Almost a quarter will still be mismanaged in South and East Asia*

9. 9
Short-lived plastics account for more than half of waste
generated in South and East Asia*
0
30
60
90
120
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Packaging Consumer products Clothing Other textiles Vehicles
Tyres Construction Electrical/Electronic Other
Mt
52% in 2060

10. 10
The bulk of leakage occurs in non-OECD countries
OECD
Non-OECD
0 1 2 3
Canada
OECD Asia
OECD EU countries
OECD Non-EU countries
OECD Oceania
Other OECD America
USA
China
India
Latin America
Middle East & North Africa
Other Africa
Other EU
Other Eurasia
Other non-OECD Asia
2019 2060
Mt
South and East Asia* will become a major contributor to leakage, in the absence of more
stringent policies

11. 11
How far would we be in 2060 from zero plastic pollution?
Other lifecycle impacts
(e.g. land use, human
toxicity)
GHG emissions
Stocks in aquatic
environments alone
Mismanagement
in dumpsites and
open-pit burning
Leakage to the
environment
44 Mt /year
115 Mt /year
493 Mt by 2060
4.3 Gt /year
Doubling from 2019 levels
Global Plastics Outlook (OECD, 2022b)

12. What policy packages can bend the plastics
curve?

13. Two policy scenarios to eliminate plastic leakage globally
Regional Action: regionally
differentiated action
Global Ambition policy scenario
• Explores a very stringent policy
package to reduce plastic
leakage to near zero by 2060
globally
• assumes shared objectives
and co-ordinated efforts at
the international level.
Figure 3. Policy instruments to end plastic leakage

14. 14
Global Ambition policy scenario:
• Plastic use declines by 1/3
below the baseline by 2060
• Plastics recycling rates reach
60% in 2060
• Waste mismanagement and
plastic leakage to the
environment decline to near
zero levels by 2060

15. 15
In South and East Asia*, the Global Ambition scenario
almost eliminates mismanagement and leakage
38
25
11
3
140
(-18%)
(-35%)
26
7
115
91
110
(-16%)
92
(-34%)
73
(-97%)
<1
(-58%)
12
(-53%)
3
(-89%)
<1
Plastic use Plastic Waste Mismanaged
Plastic Waste
Plastic Leakage
2019
Baseline - 2060 Regional Action - 2060 Global Ambition - 2060 Yearly value in Mt
(percentage change compared to Baseline)

16. Where are efforts required? How much will
they cost?

17. To end leakage, the bulk of interventions will be
required in non-OECD countries
Non-OECD
OECD
plastic
leakage
(Mt)
0
1
2
3
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060
Baseline Global Ambition scenario
0
2
4
6
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060
Baseline Global Ambition scenario
South and East Asia*
0
10
20
30
40
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060
Baseline Global Ambition scenario
➢ Upstream interventions to reduce plastics demand are essential

18. 18
Costs of eliminating plastic leakage globally are
unequally distributed
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
Regional Action Global Ambition

19. • Eliminating leakage requires global action on all aspects of the plastics life-cycle to
restrain demand, enhance circularity and close leakage pathways. Upstream
interventions are essential to reduce impacts and costs.
• Plastic flows to the environment can be drastically reduced, at modest costs overall
• However costs as a share of GDP will be higher for many developing countries, making
a strong case for strengthened international co-operation, including financing and
capacity-building (Session 6).
• Even if leakage is curbed, stocks of plastics in aquatic environments will double, raising
questions of how to identify and prioritise interventions to address legacy plastics.
19
Final takeaways (1/2)

20. • We need a more granular discussion on “plastics”, differentiating by applications,
polymers, stages of the life-cycle, to inform policy intervention and the INC
negotiations.
• At the same time we need to broaden the locus of “plastic pollution” – not just marine
litter, but also rivers, pollution on land, air quality, GHG emissions and toxicity.
• Equally critical is international alignment of design and product policies, trade and
circular economy, and regulation of hazardous substances across plastic value chains
20
Final takeaways (2/2)

21. Thank You
Shardul.Agrawala@oecd.org –
Head of Environment and Economy Integration Division
https://www.oecd.org/environment/plastics/

22. Baseline Global Ambition
2060
2019
Stocks in rivers and oceans
Baseline
493 Mt
Global
Ambition
300 Mt
140 Mt
x2

23. • Countries included:
– All ASEAN countries
– Timor Leste
– Mongolia
– Chinese Taipei
– Rest of East Asia (Macao and Democratic People's Republic of Korea)
– Bangladesh
– Nepal
– Pakistan
– Sri Lanka
– Rest of South Asia (Afghanistan, Bhutan, Maldives)
– Rest of Oceania (islands including New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Papua New Guinea, Wallis and
Futuna)
23
Definition of South and East Asia*