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Online Communities:
The Future of Business
Organization Value
USC Annenberg Program in Online Communities
January 2009
ETHAN BAULEY
ETHANBAULEY.COM
@ETHANBAULEY
ETHANBAULEY@GMAIL.COM
Who can explain what the
Internet is?


                           © Ethan Bauley
Who owns the Internet?

  • Nobody!
  • The Internet itself is quot;open sourcequot;/quot;peer
      producedquot; (TCP/IP)
  • These characteristics inform the shape of
      productive strategies



worldofends.com                                  © Ethan Bauley
Commons-based peer
production
• Who owns it?
• quot;No single person has exclusive control
  over the use and disposition of any
  particular resource in the
  commons.quot; (TWoN, 61)
• General Public License: derivative works
  must be available under same license


                                             © Ethan Bauley
Open-source software


• What is it? (anyone can contribute)
• Economic characteristics of information
  (code, video, text, audio, etc)




                                            © Ethan Bauley
Open-source software

• Why do people contribute?
• Why do people like it?
• What are some examples?



                              © Ethan Bauley
Google vs. Yahoo

• Yahoo! Directory v. Link structure of the
  Web
• What are the differences between the
  two?
• How does this relate to F/OSS & peer
  production?


                                              © Ethan Bauley
Markets, Networks,
Communities
• More efficient than individual firms
• These forms of organization have cheap
  coordination costs, are geo-agnostic
• Examples



                                           © Ethan Bauley
Wikipedia v. Britannica


• Nature comparison
• Wikipedia: community design (pillars,
  editors, etc)




                                          © Ethan Bauley
Craigslist v. Classifieds




                            © Ethan Bauley
Apache v. Microsoft




                      © Ethan Bauley
SETI@home v. Big Blue




                        © Ethan Bauley
P2P v. Akamai




                © Ethan Bauley
Peer-to-Peer
Communication

• How it used to be
• How it is in the networked world
• Velocity



                                     © Ethan Bauley
Designing communities
• Wikipedia policy
• Slashdot
• Hacker News
• Usenet
• Avoiding situations wherein individual
  rationality hurts the common good


                                           © Ethan Bauley
Game Theory

• Mathematics of social science
• Beautiful Mind
• Cold War
• Rigorous analysis of conflict...aka
  quot;interactionquot;


                                        © Ethan Bauley
Game Theory

• Volunteer's dilemma: free riders
• Prisoner's dilemma: individual rationality
  hurts the common good
• Backward induction paradox



                                               © Ethan Bauley
Game Theory & Community
• Historically, a principal source of
  advantage is information asymmetry
• What happens when all players have full
  information?
• Connectivity (broadband, social media,
  social needs of people) drives awareness,
  which drives strategy


                                              © Ethan Bauley
Game Theory & Connectivity

• A perpetual state of peer review (student
  blog example)
   - Does it change behavior?
• Backward induction, connected
  consumers & lemons



                                              © Ethan Bauley
Game theory of connectivity

 You may work together in the future;
 everyone else sees how you played your
 last move (and all moves beforehand).
 This is a powerful incentive towards quot;goodquot;
 behavior (and is why quot;Be Goodquot; is razor
 sharp strategy).


                                               © Ethan Bauley
Game theory + open source
= Cooperative advantage
• Cooperative advantage: Life is not a zero-
  sum game. We can grow the pie by
  working together.
• Goal is to be the quot;most desirable
  collaboration partnerquot;
• You can't do everything
• Business networks (not quot;chainsquot;)

                                               © Ethan Bauley
Source of advantage

• Talent (a.k.a. human capital + social
  capital)
• In a world of increasingly rapid change,
  disruption is the new equilibrium
• Only sustainable source of advantage is:
  ability to learn faster than competition


                                             © Ethan Bauley

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Open Source, Game Theory, and Social Media

  • 1. Online Communities: The Future of Business Organization Value USC Annenberg Program in Online Communities January 2009 ETHAN BAULEY ETHANBAULEY.COM @ETHANBAULEY ETHANBAULEY@GMAIL.COM
  • 2. Who can explain what the Internet is? © Ethan Bauley
  • 3. Who owns the Internet? • Nobody! • The Internet itself is quot;open sourcequot;/quot;peer producedquot; (TCP/IP) • These characteristics inform the shape of productive strategies worldofends.com © Ethan Bauley
  • 4. Commons-based peer production • Who owns it? • quot;No single person has exclusive control over the use and disposition of any particular resource in the commons.quot; (TWoN, 61) • General Public License: derivative works must be available under same license © Ethan Bauley
  • 5. Open-source software • What is it? (anyone can contribute) • Economic characteristics of information (code, video, text, audio, etc) © Ethan Bauley
  • 6. Open-source software • Why do people contribute? • Why do people like it? • What are some examples? © Ethan Bauley
  • 7. Google vs. Yahoo • Yahoo! Directory v. Link structure of the Web • What are the differences between the two? • How does this relate to F/OSS & peer production? © Ethan Bauley
  • 8. Markets, Networks, Communities • More efficient than individual firms • These forms of organization have cheap coordination costs, are geo-agnostic • Examples © Ethan Bauley
  • 9. Wikipedia v. Britannica • Nature comparison • Wikipedia: community design (pillars, editors, etc) © Ethan Bauley
  • 10. Craigslist v. Classifieds © Ethan Bauley
  • 11. Apache v. Microsoft © Ethan Bauley
  • 12. SETI@home v. Big Blue © Ethan Bauley
  • 13. P2P v. Akamai © Ethan Bauley
  • 14. Peer-to-Peer Communication • How it used to be • How it is in the networked world • Velocity © Ethan Bauley
  • 15. Designing communities • Wikipedia policy • Slashdot • Hacker News • Usenet • Avoiding situations wherein individual rationality hurts the common good © Ethan Bauley
  • 16. Game Theory • Mathematics of social science • Beautiful Mind • Cold War • Rigorous analysis of conflict...aka quot;interactionquot; © Ethan Bauley
  • 17. Game Theory • Volunteer's dilemma: free riders • Prisoner's dilemma: individual rationality hurts the common good • Backward induction paradox © Ethan Bauley
  • 18. Game Theory & Community • Historically, a principal source of advantage is information asymmetry • What happens when all players have full information? • Connectivity (broadband, social media, social needs of people) drives awareness, which drives strategy © Ethan Bauley
  • 19. Game Theory & Connectivity • A perpetual state of peer review (student blog example) - Does it change behavior? • Backward induction, connected consumers & lemons © Ethan Bauley
  • 20. Game theory of connectivity You may work together in the future; everyone else sees how you played your last move (and all moves beforehand). This is a powerful incentive towards quot;goodquot; behavior (and is why quot;Be Goodquot; is razor sharp strategy). © Ethan Bauley
  • 21. Game theory + open source = Cooperative advantage • Cooperative advantage: Life is not a zero- sum game. We can grow the pie by working together. • Goal is to be the quot;most desirable collaboration partnerquot; • You can't do everything • Business networks (not quot;chainsquot;) © Ethan Bauley
  • 22. Source of advantage • Talent (a.k.a. human capital + social capital) • In a world of increasingly rapid change, disruption is the new equilibrium • Only sustainable source of advantage is: ability to learn faster than competition © Ethan Bauley