Presented During the second WMO international conference on Indian Ocean TC and climate change تم عرضه خلال المؤتمر الثاني للإعاصير المدارية في المحيط الهندي. نيودلهي الهند، فبراير 2012

1. IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

2.  Introduction (Tropical Cyclone Phet )
 NWP Models at DGMAN
 DGMAN’s NWP forecast during Phet:
 Intensity
 Tracks
 Rainfall
 How was DGMAN’s NWP forecast compared to
others
 Remarks
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

3. 31/5/2010 2:30 UTC 1/6/2010 19:30 UTC
2/6/2010 8:00 UTC 3/6/2010 0:00 UTC
3/6/2010 15:00 UTC 4/6/2010 11:30 UTC
Date:time (UTC) 1:18 2:2 3:00 3:12 4:00 4:4 4:18
classification TC (phet) TC TC TC TC TC TS
Wind speed 75 90 120 90 90 80 55
Note CAT2 CAT3 CAT2 Landfall CAT1
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

4.  Characterized by:
 Followed a rare track in Arabian Sea (1877-2009)
 Longest tracks in recent years
 Long life period
 Two landfall and affected three countries
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

5. Total precipitation and maximum wind speed recorded during 1-5 June 2010
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

6. IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

7. Operational Forecasting Model
Prognostic variables Diagnostic variables
Surface pressure ps
Temperature T Vertical velocity ω
Water vapour qv Geopotential φ
Cloud water qc Cloud cover clc
Cloud ice qi Diffusion coefficients tkvm/h
Horizontal wind u, v
Several surface/soil parameters 2012, New Delhi, India
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb

8. Operational Forecasting Model
Prognostic variables Diagnostic variables
pressure perturbation p‘
Temperature T Total air density
specific humidity qv precipitation fluxes of rain
Cloud water qc and snow.
Cloud ice qi
Horizontal/virtical
wind u, v,w
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

9.  Vertical Layers: 40
 FCT Hours:78-120
 FCT times: 00,12 UTC
 7 – 35.25 N
 30 – 78 E
 Initial/LBC: GME
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

10. Max. wind Speed forecast (kt) (01-Jun) Min. surface pressure forecast (hpa) (01-Jun)
Max. wind Speed forecast (kt) (02-Jun) Min. surface pressure forecast (hpa) (02-Jun)
Max. wind Speed forecast (kt) (03-Jun) Min. surface pressure forecast (hpa) (03-Jun)
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New
Delhi, India

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18. IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

19.  Even though HRM/COSMO are not TC specialized models, both have
given the signal for Phet.
 All model underestimated the intensity of the tropical cyclone
 Both 14_07 and COSMO_07 have signaled 48h rainfall of more than
400mm with reasonable spatial and good amount agreement with the
satellite estimated precipitation.
 2.8km resolution clearly indicated landfall in Oman 24h prior to the
landfall while other model resolution did not forecast the landfall correctly
 The intensity underestimation is believed due to the initialization problem
 There is a need for detailed investigate to understand why all models
failed to forecast Phet??
IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India

20. IOTCCC-2012, 14-17 Feb 2012, New Delhi, India