NWP forecast at Oman Met. Dep. During Phet Tropical Cyclone توقعات التنبؤات العددية العمانية خلال الإعصار المداري فيت

2.  Introduction
 NWP Models at DGMAN
 Study Domain and Configurations
 Evaluating Forecasted:
 Intensity
 Tracks
 Rainfall
 How was our forecast compared to others
 Conclusion & future work

3. 31/5/2010 2:30 UTC 1/6/2010 19:30 UTC
2/6/2010 8:00 UTC 3/6/2010 0:00 UTC
3/6/2010 15:00 UTC 4/6/2010 11:30 UTC
Date:time (UTC) 1:18 2:2 3:00 3:12 4:00 4:4 4:18
classification TC (phet) TC TC TC TC TC TS
Wind speed 75 90 120 90 90 80 55
Note CAT2 CAT3 CAT2 Landfall CAT1

4. Total precipitation and maximum wind speed recorded during 1-5 June 2010

6. Operational Forecasting Model
Prognostic variables Diagnostic variables
Surface pressure ps
Temperature T Vertical velocity ω
Water vapour qv Geopotential φ
Cloud water qc Cloud cover clc
Cloud ice qi Diffusion coefficients tkvm/h
Horizontal wind u, v
Several surface/soil parameters

7. Operational Forecasting Model
Prognostic variables Diagnostic variables
pressure perturbation p‘
Temperature T Total air density
specific humidity qv precipitation fluxes of rain
Cloud water qc and snow.
Cloud ice qi
Horizontal/virtical
wind u, v,w

8.  ie: 193
 je:114
 i3e: 40
 FCT Hours:78
 FCT times: 00,12 UTC
 7 – 35.25 N
 30 – 78 E
 Initial/LBC: GME

9.  ie: 241
 je: 241
 I3e: 40
 FCT Hours:78
 FCT times: 00,12 UTC
 14.0 – 29.0 N
 48.5 – 63.5 E
 Initial/LBC: GME

14. Max. wind Speed forecast (kt) (01-Jun) Min. surface pressure forecast (hpa) (01-Jun)
Max. wind Speed forecast (kt) (02-Jun) Min. surface pressure forecast (hpa) (02-Jun)
Max. wind Speed forecast (kt) (03-Jun) Min. surface pressure forecast (hpa) (03-Jun)

15. •TRRM Observation
B) HRM 14km
C) COSMO 7km

18. mm

19. mm

20.  GME (driving model) miss located Gonu center and underestimated the
associated wind and pressure drop.
 Clear dependency between GME forecast quality and HRM/COSMO
forecast quality.
 Even though HRM/COSMO are not TC specialized models, both have
given the signal for Gonu.
 COSMO_07 were able to forecast Gonu as Severe Cyclonic Storm starting
from 12UTC run of 4th June 2007.
 On average COSMO shows 5% improvement of track forecast and 3% on
the wind intensity over HRM.
 Both HRM_07 and COSMO_07 have signaled 48h rainfall of more than
900mm starting at June 5th with reasonable spacial and good amount
agreement with the recorded rainfall.

21.  Both HRM & COSMO are not specialized TC models, Testing the new “TC
bogussing” scheme developed on the HRM community.
 Testing the effect of introducing Data Assimilation system for the HRM
model.
 Plan to introduce SREF system, and test the performance.