This document outlines three scenarios for the forecasted rollout of gigabit broadband services in the UK by 2020 and 2025. Scenario 1 predicts Openreach will deliver FTTP to 2 million premises by 2020 and 5 million by 2025, while G.fast reaches 10 million and 7 million homes respectively. Scenario 2 increases Openreach's FTTP coverage to 6 million by 2020 and 8 million by 2025. Scenario 3 has the highest FTTP rollout by Openreach, reaching 10 million homes by 2020 and 13 million by 2025. All scenarios assume additional coverage from altnets such as CityFibre, though with varying levels of overlap between providers.

1. Supporting the gigabit services – the spread of
superfast and ultrafast
November 2017
www.point-topic.com

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Introducing Point Topic
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To provide the best source of broadband market
information available
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Europe

3. Altnets and others
Coverage in UK

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All inputs gratefully received

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Virgin Media – keeping it metro
Virgin Media digs H1 2017 Virgin Media digs 2016

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Forecasts – how to impact the future
Scenario 1,2,3 – min, mid, max – coverage and the impact of growth rates
on the take-up numbers
Scenario 1:
 By 2020 - FTTP from Openreach to 2M premises G.fast to 10M. FTTP/B
AltNets manage 5M but with significant overbuild (80%) of other
ultrafast (cable, FTTP and G.fast). Project Lightning gets VM footprint
to 17.6M
 By 2025 – 5M from Openreach for FTTP, 7M Gfast (assumes switchover
model – where there is FTTP from them there is no Gfast) 5M from
CityFibre/Vodafone and additional 3M from other altnets. Overbuild at
70% from CF and 80% from other altnets.

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Scenario 2:
 By 2020 – Openreach FTTP 6M, Gfast 6M. Altnets 5M with 80%
overbuild of other ultrafast. Project Lightning gets VM footprint to
17.6M
 By 2025 – 8M from Openreach for FTTP, 4M Gfast (assumes
switchover model – where there is FTTP from them there is no
Gfast) 5M from CityFibre/Vodafone and additional 3M from other
altnets. Overbuild at 70% from CF and 80% from other altnets.

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Scenario 3:
 By 2020 – Openreach FTTP 10M, Gfast 2M. Altnets 5M
with 80% overbuild of other ultrafast. Project Lightning
gets VM footprint to 17.6M
 By 2025 – 13M from Openreach for FTTP, 1M Gfast
(assumes switchover model – where there is FTTP from
them there is no Gfast) 6M from CityFibre/Vodafone and
additional 4M from other altnets. Overbuild at 70% from
CF and 80% from other altnets.

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What’s enough when?

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What’s enough when?

14. Oliver Johnson, Chief Executive
oliver.johnson@point-topic.com
020 3301 3303
www.point-topic.com