Ian Corden from Plum Consulting at INCA's Edinburgh 'Future Digital Infrastructure' seminar 31/5/2018

1. Plum Consulting London LLP | +44 (0)20 7047 1919 | www.plumconsulting.co.uk | 10 Fitzroy Square, London, W1T 5HP.
Wireless broadband: an opportunity for rural 5G
Ian Corden PhD BSc(Hons) PgD CEng FIET
INCA Conference - Future Digital Infrastructure Workshop
Edinburgh, 31 May 2018

2. Study purpose and approach
 Independent study commissioned by UKWISPA and INCA jointly
・ Commercial reality (not R&D) focus, supported by stakeholder dialogue May 2018
 Update on potential benefits with FWA
・ Review background, developing UK Government policy (incl. USO), and Ofcom
positioning, relevant studies, 5G context
・ Assess performance and spectrum requirements
- 5G spectrum unlikely to be used in rural areas by mobile players, and could be
exploited with growing FWA need
・ Review cost structure and roll-out rates: FWA and FTTC/P
・ Examine spectrum management options
 Present findings to DCMS and key stakeholders
1© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.

3. UK USO set at 10Mbps + ongoing review
 2016/17: Ofcom USO studies – preliminary cost analyses
 UK broadband USO, Government’s response to consultation on design,
March 2018:
・ 10Mbps download speed
・ 1Mbps upload speed
・ 50:1 contention ratio
・ medium latency (200mS)
・ minimum 100GB data allowance
・ https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/broadband-universal-service-
obligation-consultation-on-design
 Ofcom to implement, target year 2020
・ No public funding at UK level (excepting Scottish R100)
・ Industry expected to deliver
2© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.

4. c. 0.9 – 16m premises still remain unserved in UK
 But, between 0.9m – 16m remain unserved (Ofcom: Jan. 2018 data)
・ 10 Mbps (‘decent’ broadband, per DCMS USO spec.), 0.925m (3%) UK premises [0.46m/yr];
・ 24 Mbps (DCMS definition of ‘superfast’), 1.5m (5%) UK premises [0.75m/yr];
・ 30 Mbps (Ofcom definition of ‘superfast’), 2m (7%) UK premises [1m/yr]; and
・ 300 Mbps (‘ultrafast’), 16m (55%) UK premises [8m/yr].
 Many of these lie in rural areas
 To meet the USO 2020 target, roll-out rates will need to exceed current
levels
3© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.

5. FWA and FTTC both being pursued, but …
 FWA and FTTC present different cost structures
 Over 100 FWA operators in the UK today
 5G must be developed as an ecosystem, serving various market needs
 FWA is largely constrained to 5 GHz bands, with limited Tx power (36 dBm)
 DCMS upholds technology neutrality principle
4© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.

6. Modern FWA solutions can offer attractive costs
 Cost structure varies according to deployment conditions
 Modern FWA solutions, meeting or exceeding the USO spec, can offer
attractive investment cost levels, esp. in rural areas
 But, performance depends on access to the ‘right’ spectrum …
5© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.
Bottom-up cost model Cost modelling results: FTTC - FWA

7. But, performance depends on radio spectrum
 If radio links are compromised, solution forced into ‘coverage limited design’
 Solution: more cost (to solve coverage issue), or
 Access to ‘better’ spectrum
 Opportunity exists with forthcoming 3.6-3.8 and 3.8-4.2 GHz awards
6© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.
Variation of line cost with carrier frequency (under-served area case)

8. Opportunity for UK to lead, if innovation embraced
 Both FWA and FTTC/P have a place in the market, depending on conditions
 5G must be seen as an ecosystem
・ Unlikely that 3 GHz bands will be used by mobile players in rural areas
・ FWA players need access to ‘decent’ spectrum
・ Not just about the USO. ‘Service neutral’ 5G solutions also important
 Modern FWA solutions can meet or exceed USO targets, with attractive
costs and roll-out rates
 Innovative means for spectrum management should be considered and
developed (and are in other regions, e.g. US)
・ e.g. dynamic shared access, regional licensing, CBRS
・ Recognised, but not yet acted upon by Ofcom
・ Unlikely to impact ‘national value’ of spectrum
 Opportunity exists for UK leadership in broadband roll-out …
7© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.

9. Please contact me for a copy of the full report
8© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.

10. Contact details:
Ian Corden
Director
Plum Consulting London LLP
10 Fitzroy Square
London, W1T 5HS
E: ian.corden@plumconsulting.co.uk
M +44 (0) 7399 581 978
T +44 (0) 20 7047 1919
W www.plumconsulting.co.uk
9© Plum Consulting 2018. All rights reserved.
Ian Corden is a Director with Plum, based in London.
Previously with PwC TMT Strategy Consulting London,
Coopers & Lybrand Telecoms Consulting London, Lucent Bell
Labs Systems Engineering and Business Modelling divisions,
Nokia New Systems division, and Oracle Telecommunications
Strategy Consulting, he brings over 25 years of UK and
international experience in telecommunications fixed and
wireless systems engineering research and product
development, technology programmes management, plus
international strategy and policy consulting.
He has advised operators, regulators, governments, vendors,
investors, and legal firms across technology, commercial, and
financial domains.
Most recently, he advised Ofcom in providing a detailed review
of its Wholesale Local Access (WLA) bottom-up and top-down
LRIC models for FTTC charge control in the UK. Previously, he
has held NGN programme director and CTO roles for operators
in Europe, with accountability for c. €10m cost savings on a
€300m network programme.
Ian holds PhD and BSc(1st Class Hons) degrees in electronic
engineering, PgD in management and finance, UK C.Eng and
FIET, and is Vice-Chair of the techUK Communications
Infrastructure Council.

11. 10
Copyright © 2018 Plum Consulting. All rights reserved.
This material may not be reproduced, distributed, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from Plum Consulting.
‘Plum’ and ‘Plum Consulting’ refer to Plum Consulting London LLP, United Kingdom.
Plum Consulting London LLP is a Limited Liability Partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC377350 and registered offices at 10 Fitzroy Square,
London, W1T 5HP.