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Table of Contents
1
Section 1 Executive Summary 3
Section 2 Industry Overview 4
Section 3 Company Overview and Positioning 8
Section 4 Valuation Analysis 13
Section 5 Questions 21
Executive Summary
2
 The Oil Drilling and Gas Extraction industry will benefit from strong global
demand and rising prices despite high exploration risks
 Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) possesses a solid asset base with a
unique strategy and innovations to pose a competitive advantage
 We value the company at about $9.19 per share
 We recommend placing Evolution Petroleum Corporation on the Watch List so
future analysts can evaluate its changing risks and growth strategies
Industry Overview
Section 1
3
Industry Overview
 Oil and gas extraction is a mature, stable market in the
United States
 Trends include rising global demand from emerging
economies, increased crude oil output from offshore
drilling, increased natural gas production from new
fields, and pressures from regulations and alternative
energy growth
 New technologies have allowed increased exploration
of previously unattainable resources
 Price volatility and high capital costs continue to
threaten smaller industry players
4
Industry Trends
The oil and gas extraction industry benefits from rising oil and gas prices and strong global demand
Sources:
1. Deutsche Bank Markets Research. “Oil & Gas for Beginners.” 25 January 2013.
2. Credit Suisse. Oil & Gas Primer. September 2011.
3. IBISWorld Industry Reports.
Oil Demand Correlation with Real GDP Growth (1969 – 2008)
Industry Composition
 The oil and gas drilling and extraction industry is worth
$319.5 billion in the United States
 Crude oil makes up 58.4% of the market while natural
gas represents 41.6%
 The United States sends 59% of its oil and gas exports
to Canada and 19% to Mexico
 Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana contain the largest
amount of industry output and revenue in the
continental United States
59.3%18.6%
11.1%
9.3%
1.0% 0.7% Petroleum refining industry
Natural gas distribution industry
Utilities
Industrial users
Oil exports
Gas exports
U.S. Oil & Gas Drilling and Extraction Market Segmentation
Industry Overview
5
Competitive Landscape
 Low concentration due to high geographic dispersion
 Top four competitors account for 28% of industry
revenue
 Economies of scale resulting from large oil and gas
deposits help competitors spread high capital costs
 Largest players practice downstream vertical integration
to guarantee buyers
 Stringent regulations threaten large and small
competitors and increase capital requirements
Dominant Players in Oil & Gas Drilling and Extraction
Sources:
1. Deutsche Bank Markets Research. “Oil & Gas for Beginners.” 25 January 2013.
2. EIA 2014 Report.
3. IBISWorld Industry Reports.
8.2%
7.7%
6.1%
5.8%
72.2%
ConocoPhillips
Chevron Corporation
Royal Dutch Shell PLC
BP PLC
Other
U.S. Production of Crude Oil
The oil and gas drilling and extraction industry features regional dispersion and high revenue volatility
Price Determinants
 Prices remain volatile due to changes in supply and demand
 Global economic recovery increases transportation and
industrial energy demands
 Different grades of oil (heavy, light) typically attract
different prices with lighter oils earning a premium since
they are easier to refine
 Impurities also affect the price of oil with sweet oils, or
those with a low sulfur content, commanding a premium
 High barriers to entry result from security and regulation,
capital investments, and the high risks associated with
exploration
Porter’s Five Forces
6
Sources:
1. Deutsche Bank Markets Research. “Oil & Gas for Beginners.” 25 January 2013.
2. EIA 2014 Report.
3. IBISWorld Industry Reports.
The oil and gas drilling and extraction industry is attractive with the potential for long-term profitability
Bargaining
Power of Buyers
•Few available
substitutes
•Price volatility
can deter
buyers
Bargaining
Power of
Suppliers
•Low
concentration
of industry
players
•Critical
commodity
product
Entry of New
Competitors
•Economies of
scale
•High capital
requirements
•Stringent
regulations
•High risk and
volatility
Rivalry Among
Existing
Competitors
•Limited oil
fields and gas
reserves
•Smaller firms
may share
buyers
•Larger firms
vertically
integrate
Threat of
Substitutes
•Low use of
alternative
energies
•Oil and gas
serve separate
markets
LOW MEDIUM LOW HIGH LOW
Company Overview
Section 2
7
Evolution Petroleum Company (EPM) — Company Overview
8
Firm Overview
 EPM is a petroleum company engaged primarily in
acquisition, exploitation and development of properties
for the production of crude oil and natural gas
 Differentiates through innovative proprietary technology,
reliance on unconventional drilling techniques, and
exploration of previously uneconomical reserves
 Management and employees own 21% of shares
 Market capitalization of $414 million in 2014
Primary Asset Locations
The company has attractive investments and dedicated management that could sustain future growth
MS Lime
Giddings Field
Delhi Field
Customer Relations
 EPM sells commodities so purchasers retain little buying
power in the long term
Purchaser 2013
Plains Marketing L.P. 90.0%
Enterprise Crude Oil LLC 4.0%
Flint Hills 2.0%
DCP Midstream, LP 1.0%
Kinder Morgan 1.0%
Enervest, LLC 1.0%
Orion Exploration Partners, LLC 1.0%
Revenue Growth
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) — Company Overview
9
Enhanced Oil Recovery
 Increase the production and recovery of oil and
natural gas
 Enhanced Oil Recovery from the Holt Bryant Unit in
the Delhi Field in Louisiana
 Purchased in 2003 for $2.8 million
 Operated by Denbury Resources, Inc.
 Owns 7.4% interest and 23.9% revisionary
interest
EPM earns money through Enhanced Oil Recovery, Bypassed Primary Resources, and Unconventional Development.
Carbon Dioxide Oil Recovery at Delhi Field
Bypassed Primary Resources and Unconventional Development
 Focus on horizontal drilling
 Mississippi Lime, North Central Oklahoma
 GARP Artificial Lift Technology
SWOT Analysis
10
Evolution Petroleum Corporation’s reliance on innovative technology and alternative production and exploration
methods differentiate it from the competition and provide a foundation for future growth.
Sources:
1. Company website.
2. EIA 2014 Outlook.
Strengths Weaknesses
Proprietary GARP Artificial Lift technology and patents Depends on a few large clients
Rich in assets and proved reserves Depends on crude oil for revenues
Generates scalable reserves potential at a low unit cost with long-term growth
potential
No presence in growing global markets
Experienced, trained management team with deep experience in innovative oil
and gas exploration and production strategies
Relies on third party operators, marketers, and
technologies
Royalty and interest contracts reduce risk and increase revenues Light debt use may limit exploration opportunities
Opportunities Threats
Delhi Field previously produced millions of barrels of oil indicating future
success
Exposure to commodity risk stemming from changing
world prices of oil and gas
GARP technology provides licensing opportunities Cyclicality of end markets
Increased demand from transportation and industrial sectors Uncertainties inherent in reserve estimations
Cash reserves can help secure future investment opportunities Increased competition from large, vertically-integrated
peers
Increased push for domestic energy output could spur demand Price-elastic, highly competitive environment
Recent Stock Performance
11
Valuation Analysis
Section 3
12
EPM WACC Calculation
13
Risk Free Rate 3.50%
Beta 1.28
MRP 5%
CAPM 9.90%
2-Year Return 35.48%
Annualized 16.40%
Div Yield 3.20%
ROE 19.60%
Weight
CAPM 9.9% 80%
ROE 19.60% 20%
Cost of Equity 11.84%
Return on Equity
CAPM
WACC
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt 4.54% (online source)
Tax Rate 35.00%
After-Tax 2.95%
Cost of PE 8.50% (dividend yield)
WACC 9.84%
Premium 0.5%
Adj WACC 10.34%
Cost of Debt
Cost of Preferred Equity
WACC
Debt 18%
Common Equity 70%
Perferred Equity 12%
100%
Captial Structure
EPM Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
14
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
EBIT 12,504,025$ 16,526,333$ 21,778,393$ 28,631,191$ 37,567,162$
Tax Expense (4,418,764)$ (5,839,278)$ (7,694,018)$ (10,113,972)$ (13,269,478)$
Depreciation 1,264,843$ 1,373,196$ 1,490,995$ 1,619,013$ 1,758,103$
9,350,104$ 12,060,251$ 15,575,370$ 20,136,232$ 26,055,787$
Change in NWC (322,071)$ (1,169,816)$ (3,268,762)$ (2,885,949)$ (1,979,261)$
CapEx (3,320,192) (3,611,775) (3,926,620) (4,267,272) (4,636,332)
FCF 5,707,841$ 7,278,660$ 8,379,988$ 12,983,011$ 19,440,194$
1 2 3 4 5
WACC 10.34% Terminal Growth 3.50%
Terminal Value 294,023,795.75
Discounted FCF 5,172,808$ 5,978,061$ 6,237,446$ 8,757,765$ 179,744,183$
Valuation 205,890,264$
Shares Outstanding 28,205,467
Implied Price 7.30$
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
EPM Sensitivity Analysis
15
7.30$ 2.500% 3.000% 3.500% 4.000% 4.50%
8.34% 9.08 9.88 10.85 12.04 13.54
9.34% 7.56 8.12 8.77 9.54 10.47
10.34% 6.44 6.84 7.30 7.84 8.47
11.34% 5.58 5.88 6.22 6.61 7.06
12.34% 4.90 5.13 5.39 5.69 6.02
Senstivity Analysis
EPM Comparables Analysis
16
P/E Forward P/E EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/B
MC/Proved
reserves
VOC Energy Trust (NYSE:VOC) 8.59 7.18 8.4 8.56 2.2 0.04
ECA Marcellus Trust I (NYSE:ECT) 5.33 6.56 6.6 5.27 0.67 -
Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE:CRT) 13.5 - 13.0 13.38 15.9 0.08
Enduro Royalty Trust (NYSE:NDRO) 8.59 10.1 8.5 8.60 0.73 0.02
Hugoton Royalty Trust (NYSE:HGT) 9.34 8.23 8.5 8.83 3.21 0.09
Synergy Resources Corporation (AMEX:SYRG) 51.5 20.9 13.9 34.99 3.32 0.12
Evolution Petroleum Corp. (AMEX:EPM) 105.3 19.7 18.9 39.52 7.31 0.03
Average 16.14 10.59 9.8 13.27 4.34 0.06
Median 8.97 8.23 8.5 8.72 2.71 0.06
Comparable Companies Analysis
Recent Stock Performance
17
EPM Comparables Analysis Cont.
18
Mean Median Weight Mean Median
P/E 3.39$ 1.88$ 15% 0.51$ 0.28$
Forward P/E 6.78$ 5.26$ 15% 1.02$ 0.79$
EV/Revenue 7.10$ 6.16$ 15% 1.06$ 0.92$
EV/EBITA 4.58$ 3.01$ 15% 0.69$ 0.45$
P/B 7.48$ 4.66$ 15% 1.12$ 0.70$
MC/Proved reserves 26.45$ 27.02$ 25% 6.61$ 6.76$
11.01$ 9.90$
Implied Price 10.46$
Implied Price Weighted Price
EPM Valuation/Recommendation
19
Weight
DCF 7.30$ 40%
Comps 10.46$ 60%
Price 9.19$
Implied Price
Recommendation: Watch List

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Oil and gas investment | Michael Bowen

  • 1. Table of Contents 1 Section 1 Executive Summary 3 Section 2 Industry Overview 4 Section 3 Company Overview and Positioning 8 Section 4 Valuation Analysis 13 Section 5 Questions 21
  • 2. Executive Summary 2  The Oil Drilling and Gas Extraction industry will benefit from strong global demand and rising prices despite high exploration risks  Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) possesses a solid asset base with a unique strategy and innovations to pose a competitive advantage  We value the company at about $9.19 per share  We recommend placing Evolution Petroleum Corporation on the Watch List so future analysts can evaluate its changing risks and growth strategies
  • 4. Industry Overview  Oil and gas extraction is a mature, stable market in the United States  Trends include rising global demand from emerging economies, increased crude oil output from offshore drilling, increased natural gas production from new fields, and pressures from regulations and alternative energy growth  New technologies have allowed increased exploration of previously unattainable resources  Price volatility and high capital costs continue to threaten smaller industry players 4 Industry Trends The oil and gas extraction industry benefits from rising oil and gas prices and strong global demand Sources: 1. Deutsche Bank Markets Research. “Oil & Gas for Beginners.” 25 January 2013. 2. Credit Suisse. Oil & Gas Primer. September 2011. 3. IBISWorld Industry Reports. Oil Demand Correlation with Real GDP Growth (1969 – 2008) Industry Composition  The oil and gas drilling and extraction industry is worth $319.5 billion in the United States  Crude oil makes up 58.4% of the market while natural gas represents 41.6%  The United States sends 59% of its oil and gas exports to Canada and 19% to Mexico  Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana contain the largest amount of industry output and revenue in the continental United States 59.3%18.6% 11.1% 9.3% 1.0% 0.7% Petroleum refining industry Natural gas distribution industry Utilities Industrial users Oil exports Gas exports U.S. Oil & Gas Drilling and Extraction Market Segmentation
  • 5. Industry Overview 5 Competitive Landscape  Low concentration due to high geographic dispersion  Top four competitors account for 28% of industry revenue  Economies of scale resulting from large oil and gas deposits help competitors spread high capital costs  Largest players practice downstream vertical integration to guarantee buyers  Stringent regulations threaten large and small competitors and increase capital requirements Dominant Players in Oil & Gas Drilling and Extraction Sources: 1. Deutsche Bank Markets Research. “Oil & Gas for Beginners.” 25 January 2013. 2. EIA 2014 Report. 3. IBISWorld Industry Reports. 8.2% 7.7% 6.1% 5.8% 72.2% ConocoPhillips Chevron Corporation Royal Dutch Shell PLC BP PLC Other U.S. Production of Crude Oil The oil and gas drilling and extraction industry features regional dispersion and high revenue volatility Price Determinants  Prices remain volatile due to changes in supply and demand  Global economic recovery increases transportation and industrial energy demands  Different grades of oil (heavy, light) typically attract different prices with lighter oils earning a premium since they are easier to refine  Impurities also affect the price of oil with sweet oils, or those with a low sulfur content, commanding a premium  High barriers to entry result from security and regulation, capital investments, and the high risks associated with exploration
  • 6. Porter’s Five Forces 6 Sources: 1. Deutsche Bank Markets Research. “Oil & Gas for Beginners.” 25 January 2013. 2. EIA 2014 Report. 3. IBISWorld Industry Reports. The oil and gas drilling and extraction industry is attractive with the potential for long-term profitability Bargaining Power of Buyers •Few available substitutes •Price volatility can deter buyers Bargaining Power of Suppliers •Low concentration of industry players •Critical commodity product Entry of New Competitors •Economies of scale •High capital requirements •Stringent regulations •High risk and volatility Rivalry Among Existing Competitors •Limited oil fields and gas reserves •Smaller firms may share buyers •Larger firms vertically integrate Threat of Substitutes •Low use of alternative energies •Oil and gas serve separate markets LOW MEDIUM LOW HIGH LOW
  • 8. Evolution Petroleum Company (EPM) — Company Overview 8 Firm Overview  EPM is a petroleum company engaged primarily in acquisition, exploitation and development of properties for the production of crude oil and natural gas  Differentiates through innovative proprietary technology, reliance on unconventional drilling techniques, and exploration of previously uneconomical reserves  Management and employees own 21% of shares  Market capitalization of $414 million in 2014 Primary Asset Locations The company has attractive investments and dedicated management that could sustain future growth MS Lime Giddings Field Delhi Field Customer Relations  EPM sells commodities so purchasers retain little buying power in the long term Purchaser 2013 Plains Marketing L.P. 90.0% Enterprise Crude Oil LLC 4.0% Flint Hills 2.0% DCP Midstream, LP 1.0% Kinder Morgan 1.0% Enervest, LLC 1.0% Orion Exploration Partners, LLC 1.0% Revenue Growth
  • 9. Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) — Company Overview 9 Enhanced Oil Recovery  Increase the production and recovery of oil and natural gas  Enhanced Oil Recovery from the Holt Bryant Unit in the Delhi Field in Louisiana  Purchased in 2003 for $2.8 million  Operated by Denbury Resources, Inc.  Owns 7.4% interest and 23.9% revisionary interest EPM earns money through Enhanced Oil Recovery, Bypassed Primary Resources, and Unconventional Development. Carbon Dioxide Oil Recovery at Delhi Field Bypassed Primary Resources and Unconventional Development  Focus on horizontal drilling  Mississippi Lime, North Central Oklahoma  GARP Artificial Lift Technology
  • 10. SWOT Analysis 10 Evolution Petroleum Corporation’s reliance on innovative technology and alternative production and exploration methods differentiate it from the competition and provide a foundation for future growth. Sources: 1. Company website. 2. EIA 2014 Outlook. Strengths Weaknesses Proprietary GARP Artificial Lift technology and patents Depends on a few large clients Rich in assets and proved reserves Depends on crude oil for revenues Generates scalable reserves potential at a low unit cost with long-term growth potential No presence in growing global markets Experienced, trained management team with deep experience in innovative oil and gas exploration and production strategies Relies on third party operators, marketers, and technologies Royalty and interest contracts reduce risk and increase revenues Light debt use may limit exploration opportunities Opportunities Threats Delhi Field previously produced millions of barrels of oil indicating future success Exposure to commodity risk stemming from changing world prices of oil and gas GARP technology provides licensing opportunities Cyclicality of end markets Increased demand from transportation and industrial sectors Uncertainties inherent in reserve estimations Cash reserves can help secure future investment opportunities Increased competition from large, vertically-integrated peers Increased push for domestic energy output could spur demand Price-elastic, highly competitive environment
  • 13. EPM WACC Calculation 13 Risk Free Rate 3.50% Beta 1.28 MRP 5% CAPM 9.90% 2-Year Return 35.48% Annualized 16.40% Div Yield 3.20% ROE 19.60% Weight CAPM 9.9% 80% ROE 19.60% 20% Cost of Equity 11.84% Return on Equity CAPM WACC Cost of Equity Cost of Debt 4.54% (online source) Tax Rate 35.00% After-Tax 2.95% Cost of PE 8.50% (dividend yield) WACC 9.84% Premium 0.5% Adj WACC 10.34% Cost of Debt Cost of Preferred Equity WACC Debt 18% Common Equity 70% Perferred Equity 12% 100% Captial Structure
  • 14. EPM Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 14 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBIT 12,504,025$ 16,526,333$ 21,778,393$ 28,631,191$ 37,567,162$ Tax Expense (4,418,764)$ (5,839,278)$ (7,694,018)$ (10,113,972)$ (13,269,478)$ Depreciation 1,264,843$ 1,373,196$ 1,490,995$ 1,619,013$ 1,758,103$ 9,350,104$ 12,060,251$ 15,575,370$ 20,136,232$ 26,055,787$ Change in NWC (322,071)$ (1,169,816)$ (3,268,762)$ (2,885,949)$ (1,979,261)$ CapEx (3,320,192) (3,611,775) (3,926,620) (4,267,272) (4,636,332) FCF 5,707,841$ 7,278,660$ 8,379,988$ 12,983,011$ 19,440,194$ 1 2 3 4 5 WACC 10.34% Terminal Growth 3.50% Terminal Value 294,023,795.75 Discounted FCF 5,172,808$ 5,978,061$ 6,237,446$ 8,757,765$ 179,744,183$ Valuation 205,890,264$ Shares Outstanding 28,205,467 Implied Price 7.30$ Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
  • 15. EPM Sensitivity Analysis 15 7.30$ 2.500% 3.000% 3.500% 4.000% 4.50% 8.34% 9.08 9.88 10.85 12.04 13.54 9.34% 7.56 8.12 8.77 9.54 10.47 10.34% 6.44 6.84 7.30 7.84 8.47 11.34% 5.58 5.88 6.22 6.61 7.06 12.34% 4.90 5.13 5.39 5.69 6.02 Senstivity Analysis
  • 16. EPM Comparables Analysis 16 P/E Forward P/E EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/B MC/Proved reserves VOC Energy Trust (NYSE:VOC) 8.59 7.18 8.4 8.56 2.2 0.04 ECA Marcellus Trust I (NYSE:ECT) 5.33 6.56 6.6 5.27 0.67 - Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE:CRT) 13.5 - 13.0 13.38 15.9 0.08 Enduro Royalty Trust (NYSE:NDRO) 8.59 10.1 8.5 8.60 0.73 0.02 Hugoton Royalty Trust (NYSE:HGT) 9.34 8.23 8.5 8.83 3.21 0.09 Synergy Resources Corporation (AMEX:SYRG) 51.5 20.9 13.9 34.99 3.32 0.12 Evolution Petroleum Corp. (AMEX:EPM) 105.3 19.7 18.9 39.52 7.31 0.03 Average 16.14 10.59 9.8 13.27 4.34 0.06 Median 8.97 8.23 8.5 8.72 2.71 0.06 Comparable Companies Analysis
  • 18. EPM Comparables Analysis Cont. 18 Mean Median Weight Mean Median P/E 3.39$ 1.88$ 15% 0.51$ 0.28$ Forward P/E 6.78$ 5.26$ 15% 1.02$ 0.79$ EV/Revenue 7.10$ 6.16$ 15% 1.06$ 0.92$ EV/EBITA 4.58$ 3.01$ 15% 0.69$ 0.45$ P/B 7.48$ 4.66$ 15% 1.12$ 0.70$ MC/Proved reserves 26.45$ 27.02$ 25% 6.61$ 6.76$ 11.01$ 9.90$ Implied Price 10.46$ Implied Price Weighted Price
  • 19. EPM Valuation/Recommendation 19 Weight DCF 7.30$ 40% Comps 10.46$ 60% Price 9.19$ Implied Price Recommendation: Watch List

Editor's Notes

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