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Ohio Demographics & their Impact on Townships
The Greater Ohio Policy Center is a nonprofit organization that works to revitalize Ohio's urban cores and promote sustainable redevelopment. It focuses on issues like urban regeneration, transportation infrastructure, and regional economic growth. The organization develops research and policy solutions, assists communities, and builds partnerships to create change. Ohio faces challenges like slow population growth, an aging population, poverty, and land consumption outpacing growth. But the state also has opportunities from growing diversity, millennials moving to cities, and strong economic regions. Regional collaboration and sustainable development can help communities attract residents and businesses.
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Ohio Demographics & their Impact on Townships
- 1. Alison D. Goebel,PhD Associate Director Greater Ohio Policy Center June 5, 2015
- 2. ABOUT GREATER OHIOPOLICY CENTER An outcome-oriented statewide non-profit that champions revitalization and sustainable redevelopment in Ohio: • Revitalize Ohio’s urban cores and metropolitan regions • Achieve sustainable land reuse and economic growth
- 3. ABOUT GREATER OHIOPOLICY CENTER: SUBJECT AREA EXPERTISE Urban regeneration Sustainably revitalize urban cores and neighborhoods Transportation & infrastructure modernization Develop improved & modern infrastructure Regional growth Promote regional economic development & collaborative governance structures
- 4. ABOUT GREATER OHIOPOLICY CENTER: HOW WE DO OUR WORK • Develop and publish research • Use research to advocate for practical policy solutions at the state level • Assist communities through strategic assistance and dissemination of best practices • Build collaborative partnerships to extend our reach and ability to impact change
- 6.
- 7. OHIO’S POPULATION GROWTHHAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 1970S Exhibit 1-1. Total Population, 1910-2014 14,000,000 12,000,000 11,594,163 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2014 State Total Population Estimates
- 8. OHIO’S PROJECTED POPULATIONGROWTH FOR NEXT 25 YEARS IS MINIMAL 2015-2040: Population growth Ohio: expected to grow 0.04% per year (bringing state’s total population to ~11,678,970 by 2040) • Ohio 2014 population: 11,594,163 United States: expected to grow 0.69% per year (adding nearly 60 million people to the populace) • US 2014 population: 318,857,056
- 9. OHIO IS AGING;OLDER COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTING YOUNGER COHORTS TO REPLACE AGING RESIDENTS 2015: population age 55+ Projected overall population growth 2015-2040
- 10. OHIOANS IN HOUSEHOLDSEARNING LESS THAN 120% AREA MEDIAN INCOME (2014): NOT JUST AN URBAN CHALLENGE
- 11. OHIO’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATES(2014): RURAL OHIO FACING GREATER CHALLENGES Statewide unemployment rate in 2014: 5.7%
- 12. LAND CONSUMPTION INOHIO HAS OUTPACED POPULATION GROWTH • Ohio is 8th in land conversion but only 45th in population growth, nationally • Ohio’s rate of development of acres outpaced its population growth by almost 6 times in last thirty years
- 13. COUNTY POPULATION CHANGEOUTSIDE CENTRAL CITY, 1950-2010 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Summit Stark Hamilton Cuyahoga Franklin Montgomery Lucas Youngstown
- 14. POPULATION INCREASE INEX-URBAN COUNTIES, BUT NOT UNIFORMLY ACROSS STATE Darker blue=most population growth Darkest red=greatest loss of population
- 15. AS POPULATIONS SHIFTAROUND THE METRO, HOUSING IS LEFT VACANT, RAISING LIKELIHOOD OF BLIGHT, MAKING IT THAT MUCH HARDER TO MAINTAIN AN ATTRACTIVE, COMPETITIVE COMMUNITY Note: Ottawa Co. in NW Ohio has high rates of vacancy due to number vacation homes that are used only part of the year
- 16. CHALLENGES WITH POPULATIONSTAGNATION AND AGING COMMUNITIES 1. Physical decline—blighted houses, shuttered businesses, outdated commercial and industrial facilities 2. Rising Legacy Costs and Declining Tax Base • Ohio will need over $25 billion to maintain and upgrade aging water infrastructure over the next 20 years. • Tax base shrinking with population loss. 3. Persistent Poverty and Inequity • Neighborhoods in decline are disproportionately affecting low income populations • Remaining economic/racial disparities that bring down the rest of the region
- 17. GOPC’S STATE POLICYRECOMMENDATIONS 1. Create a loan program that links small business lending with neighborhood improvement efforts 2. Develop programming the connects entrepreneurs with vacant commercial buildings 3. Establish innovative financing programs that support infrastructure modernization and fund brownfield redevelopment 4. Align ODOT administrative regions with state business growth efforts to improve economic development strategies
- 18.
- 19. OHIO IS BECOMINGMORE RACIALLY/ETHNICALLY DIVERSE: THIS IS A GOOD TREND
- 20. OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES25-34) The Millennials (those aged 25-34) are the largest age cohort, nationally. • In Ohio they made up 13% of 2013 state population, still smaller than 45-54 age cohort Under 5 years 6% 5 to 9 years 6% 10 to 14 years 7% 15 to 19 years 7% 20 to 24 years 7% 25 to 34 years 13% 35 to 44 years 12% 45 to 54 years 14% 55 to 59 years 7% 60 to 64 years 6% 65 to 74 years 8% 75 to 84 years 5% 85 years and over 2% Ohio 2013 pop distribution
- 21. OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES25-34) 91% of Ohio’s millennials with college degrees live in the state’s 8 largest metros
- 23. Ohio: A Stateof Regions. Local prosperity rides on regional
- 24. OHIO’S METROS ARETHE ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF OUR STATE AND THE KEY ENGINES TO OUR ECONOMY ARE OUR URBAN CORES 1. Toledo 2. Sandusky 3. Cleveland Elyria Lorain 4. Akron 5. Warren Youngstown 6. Lima 7. Mansfield 8. Canton 9. Steubenville 10. Dayton Piqua 11. Springfield 12. Columbus Lancaster Newark 13. East Liverpool 14. Cincinnati Hamilton Middletown 15. Ironton 16. Marietta
- 25. THE VAST MAJORITYOF OHIOANS LIVE IN A METRO Almost every single Ohioan lives within an hour’s drive of an urbanized area. Clockwise: Piqua; Mansfield; Cincinna 81% of all Ohioans live in 1 of 16 metro regions Ohio’s 16 metro regions hold 84% of the state’s jobs Ohio’s 16 metro regions produce 87% of the state’s GDP Half of the state’s population lives within 10 miles of an urban core.
- 26. OHIO’S MAJOR URBANCOUNTIES CONTAIN THE JOBS THAT EMPLOY THE METRO REGION Green=“inflow of workers” (i.e. county receives workers commuting from another county) Blue=“outflow of workers” (i.e. residents leave county for their job)
- 27. WHY REGIONS MATTERFOR ECONOMIC REGROWTH • Municipalities, suburbs, and townships and their regions are economically interdependent • Regional development and regional attraction will be the only way to economically thrive, in the long term
- 28. Cleveland Akron Canton Youngstown Lorain Northeast OHIO: five legacycities embedded in a single region of over 5,000 mi2 REGIONAL INITIATIVES: LONG TERM ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY Urban centers, suburbs, and rural townships are embedded in larger economic regions, which is how other areas of the country are succeeding
- 29. REGIONAL INITIATIVES: COMMUNITYSUSTAINABILITY Central Ohio’s insight2050
- 30. INTERGOVERNMENTAL COLLABORATION & COOPERATIONIS CRITICAL Local Government Metropolitan Planning Organizations Education Service Centers County Engineers County Executive or County Commissioners Major cities
- 31. COLLABORATION, COOPERATION, ANDSELECTIVE CONSOLIDATION LEADS TO: Economies of scale Improved local government accountability Equalization of service quantity and quality Coordinated economic competitiveness Ability to retain local community character and flavor
- 32. REGIONAL UPSHOT Looking beyondjurisdictional boundaries allows communities to maximize resources and identify new markets Multi-faceted public/private partnerships are capable of driving sustained regeneration, on a regional basis Effective ties between cities and their regions to foster stronger economic growth for both
- 33.
- 34. OPPORTUNITIES TO LEVERAGEAND ATTRACT RESIDENTS IN KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Nationally, the market is seeking walking able neighborhoods that are denser and are mixed-use. Millennials and Baby Boomers are returning to cities and older suburbs. Baby boomer, as they age, may have fewer options and lower desire to live in ex-urban areas as driving becomes untenable for some Immigrants, significant contributors to population growth and economic regeneration, are less interested in suburban-style communities
- 35. STRATEGIES THAT AREMAKING AN IMPACT 1. Target resources in viable neighborhoods, especially neighborhoods facing economic challenges but that can “tip back” to health 2. Focus on rebuilding the downtown or core of community 3. Leverage economic assets to build competitive advantages 4. Repurpose vacant land and buildings for new uses
- 36. ASSETS TO LEVERAGEIN OLDER COMMUNITIES • Great “bones” – historic buildings, cultural assets, eds and meds, existing infrastructure • Lifestyle and affordability • Inherent walkability – “streetcar suburbs” • Sense of Community • Excess land ripe for redevelopment
- 37. THE MARKET ISDESIRING WALKABLE NEIGHBORHOODS AND THEY ARE COST EFFECTIVE! Walkable neighborhoods with transportation options save money and resources Downtown Mansfield, Mansfield Ohio from http://www.hivelocitymedia.com/cities/Mansfield/
- 38. WHAT IS SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT Sustainable Development: is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. In Ohio this means building urban, suburban and rural communities with housing and transportation choices near jobs, shops and schools. More compact development puts existing capacity to work, lowers infrastructure costs per capita, and helps ensure infrastructure is maintained before repairs get expensive.
- 39. SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ISCOST EFFECTIVE In general, sustainable growth development costs one-third less for upfront infrastructure, such as: new construction of roads, sewers, and water lines. Source: “Building Better Budgets: A National Examination of the Fisca Benefits of Smart Growth Development,” Smart Growth America, May 2013
- 40. SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ISCOST EFFECTIVE Sustainable growth development saves taxpayers an average of 10 percent on ongoing delivery of services, such as police, ambulance, and fire service costs, by reducing distances service vehicles must drive. Source: “Building Better Budgets: A National Examination of the Fiscal Benefits of Smart Growth Development,” Smart Growth America, May 2013
- 41. CRITICAL NEXT STRATEGIES:STRATEGIC INCREMENTALISM FOR OHIO’S COMMUNITIES • Requires a coherent vision of the future. Clear long- term goals grounded in small, but achievable steps • Small, medium, and large sized cities and communities have unique assets that appeal to new generations • Be creative in identifying assets in your community and leverage them • Set clear long-term goals and identify small, achievable steps to get you there • Look beyond jurisdictional boundaries maximize resources and identify new markets
- 42. Progress – bigpicture Pockets of success Building on physical assets Downtown repopulation New urban forms Private sector investment Challenges Connecting the pockets Retaining a middle class Racial/economic disparities Vacancy and abandonment Regional decline Aging infrastructure Small, medium-sized cities Political divide Workforce retraining/training POSITIONING OHIO’S COMMUNITIES FOR FUTURE GROWTH: MIXED PICTURE
- 43. STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS •Create the Service Station Clean-Up fund that will provide grants to communities to remediate abandoned gas stations (in current state budget proposal) • Implement a statewide Safe Streets policy to ensure safety of all users and encourage economic development • Increase state funding and federal funds flexed for transit • Improve communities’ ability to revitalize vacant and abandoned buildings
- 44. GOPC RESEARCH TOBE RELEASED • Study of Opportunity neighborhoods in Ohio • Analysis of what gives some small and medium-sized cities their competitive edge • Commercial vacant property webinars June, July, August, September
- 45. Alison D. Goebel,PhD Associate Director Greater Ohio Policy Center agoebel@greaterohio.or g @alisongoebelOH www.greaterohio.org 614-224-0187
Editor's Notes
- #3 Who is GOPC? : We are an outcome-oriented statewide non-profit that champions revitalization and sustainable redevelopment in Ohio : Our aim is to make Ohio economically competitive by promoting sustainable land use. In particular we want to revitalize our urban cores and metropolitan regions to make them attractive to current and prospective residents and businesses. Non-partisan, non-profit, primarily foundation-funded We carefully maintain a bi-partisan, nonpartisan reputation and are perceived by policymakers as “middle of the road.” GOPC has a bipartisan board and advances data-driven recommendations that transcend party lines
- #4 We are a “think and do” tank that focuses on 3 policies areas that we think will help the state become economically competitive in the future. 1. Encourage redevelopment of walkable neighborhoods and central business districts to generate the density that produces higher taxes, more entrepreneurial creativity and offers a range of amenities 2. Address spatial mismatch between where we work, play and live. We want to see increased resources for these improvements and consideration of options that don’t include highways. For example, more robust transit systems. 3. Reduce competition between local governments and the fragmentation in our state’s regions will help regions to economically compete as unified fronts GOPC’s interest is in Removing barriers that make it hard for local government leaders, nonprofit officials and/or the private sector to revitalize their communities. Establishing new policies that make it easier, cheaper or faster for leaders to revitalize communities Aligning state policy with local needs and action Attracting private sector interest and investment to neighborhoods and cities that are beginning to backslide or have experienced disinvestment
- #5 To champion revitalization we write research reports, analyses and white papers that are used by state and local policy makers, reporters, local nonprofits and the private sector. We advocate for pragmatic policies at the statehouse and with executive offices We offer advice to local officials and often act as a liaison between local stakeholders and state policymakers We conduct local pilot or demonstrations projects in individual neighborhoods or cities to test the efficacy and value of proposed policy reforms
- #10 Looking from a county perspective : Ohioans aged 55+ comprise over 25% of state’s population but comprise 30%+ in many eastern and rural counties BROWN/GREEN Map: (lighter the county, the fewer 55+) BLUE/WHITE MAP: (darker the county, greater the expected population growth) Ohio’s population growth will not be evenly distributed
- #13 why we are concerned with land consumption and usage: Ohio’s population growth is stagnant, but we continue to consume land by building further and further out on the edges of our metro regions. This leads to basically same amount of people is leading to fewer people paying for the same amount of services More land consumption with the same number of residents means that our economic activity dissipates and that the cost of supporting that developed land increases for all taxpayers, including businesses. Costs of land development include new roads, new sewer and water lines, the lost cost of agricultural production, the lost cost of worker productivity due to increased commuting times, and the increased public health costs the can occur if people are not living in an environment that supports active lifestyles. The cost of sprawl is felt especially heavily by cities which is where many of our facilities remain and have been the longest in operation
- #14 In major urban counties, suburban population has more or less flatlined. Suburban population has increased but not hugely But with the exception of Cuyahoga Co, population has increased over time in the suburbs
- #20 The more diverse a community, the more welcoming it is perceived by people of color and immigrants. For future population growth and economic growth, Ohio will have to rely on people moving in. Immigrants and younger people have different expectations of their communities that what the community was previously used to: Walkable High quality transit
- #21 Nationally, millennials surpassed Baby Boomers in raw numbers in 2013
- #25 The cities and small towns that made Ohio strong in the 20th century have become the metropolitan regions that will power it in the 21st century.
- #26 In 2008 we undertook a huge study that resulted in a well received 2010 report. This report, Restoring Prosperity to Ohio , confirmed that cities matter to Ohio. In 2010 we found: 81% of all Ohioans live in one of the state’s 16 metropolitan areas These metros hold: 84% of the state’s jobs Produce 87% of the state GDP These numbers have likely increased in the 4 years since we completed the study.
- #28 Ohio is a state of metros. That’s the reality
- #30 insight2050 is a collaborative initiative among MORPC, Columbus 2020, ULI Columbus, and a stakeholder committee consisting of public and private partners. The initiative aims to help Central Ohio communities proactively plan for development and population growth over the next 30+ years, which is expected to be dramatically different from the past. The first phase of insight2050 is a regional analysis that provides data for decision makers to understand the impact of future land use policies on specific factors influencing the region’s quality of life. The Scenario Results Report is now available online at www.getinsight2050.org. The regional growth scenarios that reflect different types of development patterns were informed by the latest data and projections and then compared utilizing a variety of metrics, such as land consumption, infrastructure costs, air pollution, household expenses for transportation and utilities, as well as public health and safety costs, to arrive at an assessment of their relative impacts.
- #31 Too much is at risk with going it alone. There are more benefits to working together than solo
- #32 Economic benefits of collaboration outweigh ‘going it alone” Organically happening at the local level State is encouraging shared services This is the future
- #33 To Sum up:
- #35 Townships, especially suburban and ex-urban townships have received many of the residents that moved out of the county’s or metro’s largest city, but new market trends suggest that a renewed interest for urban and urban-esque amenities and living
- #38 SGA study Looked at 17 studies from across the county that compared sustainable growth development with conventional suburban development DEFINITION OF TERMS SG Development: buildings located closer to each other; more walkable neighborhoods; streets with better connections among destinations; a greater mix of home types; more transportation options. Conventional Suburban Development: siting buildings farther away from each other; designing neighborhoods primarily for driving; creating a less-connected street system with longer distances between destinations; providing fewer public transportation options.
- #40 SGA’s survey concluded that smart growth development saves an average of 38 percent on upfront costs for new construction of roads, sewers, water lines and other infrastructure. Many studies have concluded that this number is as high as 50 percent.
- #44 Amend public nuisance statute Make it harder to scrap metal from residential properties Increase recordation of responsible party contact information for real estate recordings to cut down