Climate Change Adaptation within the Purview of National Security and Sustainable Development
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION In the Purview of National Security FRANCISCO ASHLEY ACEDILLO Senior Consultant, NSC Consultant for Pol. Affairs, OST
SCOPE Preliminaries International Consensus on Climate Change Why Climate Change is a MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUE Policy Environment for CCA & SD in the PHLOpportunities for Local Action via NSTP/NRSC
Where I’m coming from…I AM NOT A CLIMATOLOGIST. Nor AM I A SCIENTIST.
Where I’m coming from…As an Air Force officer, and pilot, for 9 years WE DID HAVE EXTENSIVE EXPOSURE TO METEOROLOGY. As a Management Consultant since 2008, My FOCUS has been on STRATEGY MANAGEMENT.
Where I’m coming from… And since 2010, I have beenSENIOR CONSULTANT to the National Security Adviser / NSC. From 2010 to 2011, I was involved in drafting the country’s first-ever NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY (NSP) since 1999.
INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS• The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earths climate system is unequivocally warming, and it is more than 90% certain that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels. - Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their conclusions were: 1. The global average surface temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and 0.17 °C per decade in the last 30 years.
INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their conclusions were: 1. The global average surface temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and 0.17 °C per decade in the last 30 years. 2. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities, in particular emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane.
INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their conclusions were: 3. If greenhouse gas emissions continue the warming will also continue, with temperatures projected to increase by 1.4 °C to 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100. Accompanying this temperature increase will be increases in some types of extreme weather and a projected sea level rise.
INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS No scientific body of national or international standing has pushed forward any formal opinion dissenting from any of these three main points.
World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2013• The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.• Global Risks 2013 report is based on an extensive survey of over 1,000 experts worldwide. The report – now in its eighth edition (since 2006) – serves to orient and inform decision-makers as they seek to make sense of an increasingly complex and fast-changing world.
2011 Economic Losses Related to Selected Natural Catastrophes
World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2013• Economic and environmental systems are simultaneously under stress worldwide, and this is testing resilience at the global and national levels.• Meanwhile, the impact of climate change is more evident as temperature rises and more frequent extreme weather events loom on the horizon.
World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2013• The 2013 report identified the failure of climate change adaptation and rising greenhouse gas emissions as among those global risks considered to be the most likely to materialize within a decade. Compared to last year’s survey, the failure to adapt to climate change replaced rising greenhouse gas emissions as the most systemically critical.• This change in the data mirrors a wider shift in the conversation on the environment from the question of whether our climate is changing to the questions of “by how much” and “how quickly”.
U.S. NIC’s Critical Uncertainties by 2025“…A lack of national leadership in tackling climatechange further damages America’s internationalstanding as it fails to lead by example. The charge that thecurrent US policy is short-sighted and disconnected fromthe scientific evidence means that America is sowing theseeds for more environmental and economic damage inthe future.”
U.S. NIC’s Critical Uncertainties by 2025“..But in a world living on borrowed time, there is nosense of urgency associated with the problem of climatechange, except for those most likely to feel its effects.”- Global Scenarios to 2025, U.S. National Intelligence Council
NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITY• The United Nations (UN) Report of the Secretary General’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change 2004, “A More Secured World: Our Shared Responsibility,” defined six clusters of threats with which the world must be concerned with for the 21st century, foremost among them: Economic and social threats, including poverty, infectious disease and environmental degradation.
NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITYThe United Nations (UN) Report of the SecretaryGeneral’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges andChange 2004, “A More Secured World: Our SharedResponsibility” - 5 of 6 other clusters of threats:Inter-State conflictInternal conflict, including civil war, genocide and other large-scale atrocitiesNuclear, radiological, chemical and biological weaponsTerrorismTransnational organized crime
NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITYIn defining Economic and Social Threats, including poverty,infectious disease and environmental degradation, the UNsaid that:“Environmental degradation has enhanced thedestructive potential of natural disasters and insome cases hastened their occurrence. The dramaticincrease in major disasters witnessed in the last 50years provides worrying evidence of this trend… “
NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITYIn defining Economic and Social Threats, including poverty,infectious disease and environmental degradation, the UNsaid that:“.. More than two billion people were affected bysuch disasters in the last decade, and in the sameperiod the economic toll surpassed that of theprevious four decades combined. If climate changeproduces more acute flooding, heat waves,droughts and storms, this pace may accelerate.”
NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITY Poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradation and war feed one another in a deadly cycle. Disease and poverty, in turn, are connected to environmental degradation; climate change exacerbates the occurrence of such infectious disease as malaria and dengue fever. Environmental stress, caused by large populations and shortages of land and other natural resources, can contribute to civil violence.
NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITY Poverty ( as measured by per capita gross domestic product (GDP)) is strongly associated with the outbreak of civil war
The NSP 2011-2016• It is an open-source document, available for download from our Official Gazette at: http://www.gov.ph/2011/08/18/national-security- policy-2011-2016/• In it, the NSP posits that: “Climate change is expected to hit developing countries the hardest. Its effects – higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, more frequent weather-related disasters, pose risks to agriculture, food and water supplies…”
NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITY• (cont’d): “.. At stake are the Philippines’ recent gains in the fight against poverty, hunger and disease, and in protecting the lives and livelihood of our people.”
CCA & SD in the Philippines• After the first meeting of the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) in 1992 (Rio 1992), the PHL gov’t. established the PCSD under NEDA.• FVR’s “Philippines 2000” strategic plan was heavily influenced by Rio 21.• Succeeding versions of the MTPDP (now PDP) have incorporated SD as a concept and basis for action plans
CCA & SD in the Philippines• In 2009, PHL passed RA 9729 or the Climate Change Act, leading to creation of Climate Change Commission and adoption of National Framework Strategy on Climate Change.• In 2012, RA 10174 was passed, amending RA 9729 and setting up a Php 1 billion People’s Survival Fund (PSF) annually to implement local climate change action plans and make communities more resilient to climate-induced disasters.
CCA & SD in the Philippines• Relatedly, PHL also passed RA 10121 or the “Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010,” abolishing the NDCC and reconstituting it into a NDRRMC.• This law also recognized the critical effects of climate change on disasters and calamities in the country, and called for a “Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction Management” (CBDRRM) system
The PCSD’s Agenda 21 recognizes theimportance of raising our citizens’ civic- mindedness – their ability for goodcitizenship – in promoting SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT.
From Agenda 21 (Rio 1992) Children and Youth Indigenous Women People Non-Farmers Governmental Organizations Major Groups Scientific and Local Technological Authorities Community Business Workers and and Trade Unions Industry
Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21:GOAL:Making sustainable development a way of life for civilsociety STRATEGY:Integrating SD principles into people’s values andlifestylesSTRATEGY OWNER:PCSD-Civil Society counterpart
Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21 call for:1.Pushing for the integration of SD principles and parameters into the education curricula at all levels• Move towards the Integration of SD modules into the business and allied curricula in all schools, colleges and universities
Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21 call for:2. Harnessing the power of media, academe, and church-based organizations by establishing partnerships and coalitions in implementing SD programs and projects3. Coordinating the development of a living sustainable community model
Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21 call for:4. Linking up with academe and other major groups on reviewing all relevant laws for consistency with SD5. Defining a transparent operational framework and plan for wider civil society engagement in SD efforts, such as the youth and other major groups
Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?Study, review and give inputs to:1) The Climate Change Commission’s National Strategy Framework for Climate Change2) The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan3) The ACTION PLANS on Climate Change of DILG, DENR, Dept. of Agriculture4) Or even the National Security Policy, and others
Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?Agencies for potential tie ups: a. DENR (for watersheds, mangrove areas, mining area communities) b. Climate Change Commission c. Office of Civil Defense, DND d. Municipal/City, Provincial and Regional DRMMCs
Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?Focus areas for action: 1. Watersheds 2. Mangroves 3. Coastal living communities 4. Urban living communities along river banks, canals and esteros
Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?Focus areas for action: 5. Communities living within mining areas 6. Typhoon-proofing of houses and school buildings 7. Organizing school clubs that promote climate change awareness, sustainable development and disaster and risk mitigation and preparedness
As NSTP trainors/implementers, or as West Point leadership professor Col. Eric Kial would say:“…As leaders, you have a choice: You can makeassumptions about the next generation or you can invest in them the way that others have invested in you.”
As NSTP trainors/implementers, or as West Point leadership professor Col. Eric Kial would say: “To truly guide and develop the younger generation, we need to practice transformational and authentic leadership.”
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION In the Purview of National Security THANK YOU! FRANCISCO ASHLEY ACEDILLO Senior Consultant, NSC Consultant for Pol. Affairs, OST