#NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015

•

4 likes•1,314 views

A new version of the talk that describes what software estimates are used for, and alternatives that might serve you better. (This time with added logs ;)

Software

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
#NoEs5mates
does not mean
“no es5mates!”
Seb Rose
seb@cucumber.io

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Your company
NEEDS
that es5mate

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Why do we es5mate?
Analysis of requirements
Priori5sa5on
Predic5on
Blame!

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Warren Ellis, author & humanist
“I try not to get involved in the  
business of predic'on.
It's a quick way to look like an idiot.”

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
The Cone of Uncertainty in Project Management

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Overconﬁdence

©ClaysnowLimited2014
How long is a piece of string?

©ClaysnowLimited2014
120 cm
100 cm
70 cm
60 cm
40 cm
E.
D.
C.
A.
B.

©ClaysnowLimited2014
... these studies which have for a few
years now given rise to the claim that
"research shows that people are be)er at
rela5ve than absolute es5ma5on" do not
in fact seem to square with that claim.
This doesn't entail that rela5ve
es5ma5on doesn't work -‐ only that it is
not proven.
h)p://guide.agilealliance.org/guide/rela5ve.html

©ClaysnowLimited2014
12 cm
10 cm
7 cm
6 cm
4 cm
E.
D.
C.
A.
B.

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
h)ps://es5ma5on.lunarlogic.io/assets/cards-‐range-‐8fc41b2e3fd282125f4602a712020204.png

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Resource alloca5on
Release planning
How much?
When?

©ClaysnowLimited2014
winnipegagilist.blogspot.com

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Probabilis5c
planning
...uses historical data or a model of
expected capability to build a
forecast of the project outcome

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Priori5sa5on
(or ordering?)

©ClaysnowLimited2014
Cost of delay
http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/
... is a way of communicating the
impact of time on value.

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
“... rather than trying to improve the ini>al project
es>mates, the budgets and deadlines must be set
based on the value of delivery (not the cost).”
h)p://www.gilb.com/dl460
Es5ma5on:
A Paradigm Shig Toward
Dynamic Design-‐to-‐Cost
and
Radical Management

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Shouty!
h)ps://github.com/cucumber-‐ltd/shouty.net

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
"We aren't really bad at
es5ma5ng.
What we are really bad at
is enumera5ng all the
assump5ons that lie
behind our es5mates."
-‐Paul Rook

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Is it small,
or just far away?

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Woody Zuill
h)p://www.agileroots.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/WoodyZuill_2013-‐150x168.png

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
BANG
HEAD
HERE
Observed Cycle
h)p://ajcp.ascpjournals.org/content/134/3/361/F1.large.jpg

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Vasco Duarte
h)p://2013.itakeunconf.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/03/vasco-‐duarte-‐300x400.jpg

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
h)ps://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrink_200_200/p/7/000/2c4/38d/0ea9e25.jpg
Neil Killick

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
h)p://pbs.twimg.com/proﬁle_images/1176417752/Headshot_2.jpg
Glen Alleman

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
The idea behind the #NoEs5mates
approach to sogware development
isn't to eliminate es:mates
[it is] to explore other ways to solve
problems
without speciﬁcally asking,
'How long will it take?'
h)p://www.cio.com/ar5cle/2381167/agile-‐development/-‐no-‐es5mates-‐in-‐ac5on-‐5-‐ways-‐to-‐rethink-‐sogware-‐projects.html

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Giving sogware projects an API
... [is] about
“yes, yes, yes”.
h)p://xprogramming.com/ar5cles/ar5facts-‐are-‐not-‐the-‐problem/

@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Ask yourself whether the value you get from
es5mates jus5ﬁes the cost of producing them.
#NoEs:mates is the banner under which
people look for alterna:ve ways
of gerng
the beneﬁts that they want,
without
the waste that they don’t.
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Often we hear that estimating a project is a must. "We can't make decisions without them" we hear often. In this session I'll present examples of how we can predict a release date of a project without any estimates, only relying on easily available data. I'll show how we can follow progress on a project at all times without having to rely on guesswork, and we will review how large, very large and small projects have already benefited from this in the past. At the end of the session you will be ready to start your own #NoEstimates journey.

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#NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015

1. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io #NoEs5mates does not mean “no es5mates!” Seb Rose seb@cucumber.io

2. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Your company NEEDS that es5mate

3. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Why do we es5mate? Analysis of requirements Priori5sa5on Predic5on Blame!

4. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Predic5on

5. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Warren Ellis, author & humanist “I try not to get involved in the   business of predic'on. It's a quick way to look like an idiot.”

6. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io The Cone of Uncertainty in Project Management

7. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io

8. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Overconﬁdence

9. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io

13. ©ClaysnowLimited2014 ... these studies which have for a few years now given rise to the claim that "research shows that people are be)er at rela5ve than absolute es5ma5on" do not in fact seem to square with that claim. This doesn't entail that rela5ve es5ma5on doesn't work -‐ only that it is not proven. h)p://guide.agilealliance.org/guide/rela5ve.html

16. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk h)ps://es5ma5on.lunarlogic.io/assets/cards-‐range-‐8fc41b2e3fd282125f4602a712020204.png

18. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Why predict?

19. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Resource alloca5on Release planning How much? When?

24. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io

25. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io

26. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Probabilis5c planning ...uses historical data or a model of expected capability to build a forecast of the project outcome

27. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io

28. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Priori5sa5on (or ordering?)

29. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io

30. ©ClaysnowLimited2014 Cost of delay http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/ ... is a way of communicating the impact of time on value.

31. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io “... rather than trying to improve the ini>al project es>mates, the budgets and deadlines must be set based on the value of delivery (not the cost).” h)p://www.gilb.com/dl460 Es5ma5on: A Paradigm Shig Toward Dynamic Design-‐to-‐Cost and Radical Management

32. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Analysis

33. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Shouty! h)ps://github.com/cucumber-‐ltd/shouty.net

34. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io "We aren't really bad at es5ma5ng. What we are really bad at is enumera5ng all the assump5ons that lie behind our es5mates." -‐Paul Rook

35. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Is it small, or just far away?

36. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io #NoEs5mates

37. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Woody Zuill h)p://www.agileroots.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/WoodyZuill_2013-‐150x168.png

38. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io BANG HEAD HERE Observed Cycle h)p://ajcp.ascpjournals.org/content/134/3/361/F1.large.jpg

39. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Vasco Duarte h)p://2013.itakeunconf.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/03/vasco-‐duarte-‐300x400.jpg

40. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io h)ps://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrink_200_200/p/7/000/2c4/38d/0ea9e25.jpg Neil Killick

41. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io h)p://pbs.twimg.com/proﬁle_images/1176417752/Headshot_2.jpg Glen Alleman

42. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io The idea behind the #NoEs5mates approach to sogware development isn't to eliminate es:mates [it is] to explore other ways to solve problems without speciﬁcally asking, 'How long will it take?' h)p://www.cio.com/ar5cle/2381167/agile-‐development/-‐no-‐es5mates-‐in-‐ac5on-‐5-‐ways-‐to-‐rethink-‐sogware-‐projects.html

43. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Giving sogware projects an API ... [is] about “yes, yes, yes”. h)p://xprogramming.com/ar5cles/ar5facts-‐are-‐not-‐the-‐problem/

44. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io Ask yourself whether the value you get from es5mates jus5ﬁes the cost of producing them. #NoEs:mates is the banner under which people look for alterna:ve ways of gerng the beneﬁts that they want, without the waste that they don’t. Finally....

#NoEstimates does not mean "No estimates!" - Agile Cambridge 2015

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