Estimates are often inaccurate and cause more problems than they solve. They can lead teams to game the system and focus on meeting estimates rather than delivering value. Instead of estimating, teams should focus on selecting high-value work, breaking it into small chunks, delivering iteratively, and observing outcomes to continuously improve their process. By focusing on delivery over plans and estimates, teams can build trust with customers and gain a stable, self-regulating development flow.

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2. #NoEstimates
Robert Weißgraeber
TYPO3 Conference 2013
Stuttgart, 30st Oct
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3. communication. content. consulting.
/me
Robert Weißgraeber
Principal @ aexea
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4. #foodkoma
/me
@robert_we
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coffee image: epsos.de

5. #NoEstimates as a hashtag
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7. why do we estimate?
(1)
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8. typical questions to be
answered
"when will it be finished?"
"when do you have feature X ready?"
"what does it cost?"
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9. abstraction
need to know about cost to make decision
need to know some numbers to make a plan
customer value?
how can we do it?
how can we do better?
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10. (2)
why estimates cause problems.
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11. time vs. effort:
your mileage may vary
time, as in effort of a task, can not be compared
between people
individual productivity may vary
duration depends on lots of factors: resources, task-switching
requirements get stale
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12. „Work expands
so as to fill
the time
available for its
completion.“
Parkinsown‘s Law
Cyril Northcote Parkinson, 1955
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13. estimates are muda (waste)
a number has no intrinsic value for your software
Lean: „...any human activity that absorbs resources but
creates no value.“
Principles behind the Agile Manifesto: „Simplicity – the art of
maximizing the amount of work not done – is essential.“
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15. gaming the system
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17. gaming the system
People turn estimates into targets. Meeting the target
becomes the de facto goal and the de facto method. Meeting
needs fades in priority.
People construe estimates as promises. No one can predict
the future, but many people treat estimates as guarantees.
Failed predictions fan blame. Trust and openness suffer.
http://www.estherderby.com/2012/03/estimating-is-oftenhelpful-estimates-are-often-not.html
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18. story points
& velocity
story points instead of time!
Photos: DieselDemon, Kyle May, CC-by via flickr
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19. Lake Wobegon effect
aka Illusory Superiority
aka „above average effect“
people misestimate their own ability
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20. survivorship bias
„... is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things
that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking
those that did not because of their lack of visibility.“
look at all your projects
even those, which didn‘t happen
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21. no estimates!
(3)
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22. productivity by estimation strategy
1985, Jeffery-Lawrence
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23. people are already doing this!
story count gives a more stable prediction than story point
velocity
by Vasco Duarte using Scrum (@duarte_vasco)
various different projects
http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjectsDB
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24. focus on value
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25. Customer collaboration over
contract negotiation.
Responding to change over
following a plan
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27. requirements are not stable
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28. abstraction
use value as primary decision criteria
be better at executing, delivering – the in comparison to the
real world, not some plan
arbitrary plan
cost-driven decision
ignore youre potential
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29. what to do?
(4)
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30. simple!
1.
select the most important
part of work that has to be
done
2.
break it down into small
chunks (risk neutral,
commitable...)
3.
deliver it
4.
iterate and refactor
(by Vasco Duarte)
Photo: mtshaw, CC-by via flickr
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31. observe and predict
observe & measure
think about your indicators
do not put guesses in
predict the future
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32. stable development process
you need a stable development flow, system, people
you can concentrate on improving this
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33. self-regulating prediction
number of stories instead of arbitrary guess
size of stories may change over time
observed outcome changes -> changes prediction
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34. kanban anyone?
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35. new
ready
doing
delivered
done
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36. new
ready
doing
delivered
done
• lead time
• cycle time
• flow
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37. scrum
“stories of size 1“
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38. chaordic/chaotic:
no estimation, focus on delivering?
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39. Price?
but... what is the price for the customer?
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40. be Agile!
do not be trapped in a plan
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41. focus on value
highest value first
how many features in your projects do not deliver value?
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42. Trust.
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43. Iterate, don‘t estimate.
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44. what not to do!
(5)
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45. do not refuse
to answer
estimation
requests.
but…
Photo: jcolman, CC-by via flickr
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46. large projects, unbreakable
chunks
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47. woman in
pastoral
setting
not large, monolithic projects
increment & iterate & deliver
Photo: Steven Thomas
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48. Wrap Up
(6)
Guessing + Estimates are bad
value and cost are not related
focus on value, focus on better delivering, gain trust
stop estimating
look at your process to get #BeyondEstimates
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49. #BeyondEstimates
thank you.
#NoProjects
thank you. discuss!
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