Nl2040 eindhoven 100909
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The document presents four scenarios for how work in the Netherlands may change by 2040: 1) Talent Towns - Communication technology leads to specialization of tasks and global knowledge exchange, with people working as specialists in small cities. 2) Cosmopolitan Centers - Cities cluster specialized activity in science-based fields like biotech and nanotech through a global division of tasks. 3) Egalitarian Ecologies - Information technology leads to generalization of tasks performed by workers in medium-sized cities catering to local demand. 4) Metropolitan Markets - Breakthroughs in biotech and nanotech drive large firms and research centers to concentrate in metropolises, increasing income inequality
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Nl2040 eindhoven 100909
- 4. 4 New CPB Scenario Study Question How will we earn our daily bread in 2040? Approach Scenarios to deal with uncertainty Answer Smart people Strong cities Policy
- 5. 5 Specialisation of Work … Brainstorm Blueprint Prototype Chips Packaging Retail Retail Retail Retail Production
- 6. 6 Smart People Specialisation Communication technology … … leads to unbundling of tasks … … global knowledge exchange … … and production by specialist workers
- 8. 8 Smart people ... or generalisation Mechanics masters more complex systems Insurance agents with broad portfolio Expert system to diagnose illness Design programmes Write your own emails
- 9. 9 Smart People Specialisation Communication technology … … leads to unbundling of tasks … … global knowledge exchange … … and production by specialist workers Generalisation Information technology … … bundles tasks … … performed by autonomous workers
- 10. 10 Cities Are the Place to Be Stockholm Barcelona Tokyo Dallas Packaging Retail Retail Retail Retail Production
- 11. 11 Concentration of Economic Activity …
- 12. 12 Strong Cities Concentration Economies of scale … … with face-to-face interactions … … to develop new technologies
- 13. 13 … or Scattering of Economic Activity
- 14. 14 Strong Cities Concentration Economies of scale … … with face-to-face interactions … … to develop new technologies Scattering Networks of small cities … … with excellent connections … … facilitated by ICT
- 17. 17 Talent Towns • Communication technology: specialists • Interaction and surroundings: small cities • Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges • High incomes, yet high competition • Low incomes under pressure • Netherlands: business services • Manufacturing to Asia
- 18. 18 Talent Towns • Communication technology: specialists • Interaction and surroundings: small cities • Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges • High incomes, yet high competition • Low incomes under pressure • Netherlands: business services • Manufacturing to Asia
- 19. 19 Cosmopolitan Centers • Bio- and nanotechnology: science based • Communication: global division of tasks • Cities: clusters of specialised activity • Risk: other city takes over • Substantial income inequality • Examples of possible Dutch clusters: • water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative
- 20. 20 Cosmopolitan Centers • Bio- and nanotechnology: science based • Communication: global division of tasks • Cities: clusters of specialised activity • Risk: other city takes over • Substantial income inequality • Examples of possible Dutch clusters: • water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative
- 21. 21 Egalitarian ecologies • Information technology: generalists • Product variation: local demand • Medium-sized cities: quality • Moderate growth of incomes: • Limited technological progress • Wealth to raw materials suppliers • East and south of Netherlands flourish
- 22. 22 Egalitarian ecologies • Information technology: generalists • Product variation: local demand • Medium-sized cities: quality • Moderate growth of incomes: • Limited technological progress • Wealth to raw materials suppliers • East and south of Netherlands flourish
- 23. 23 Metropolitan Markets • Bio- and nanotechnology break through • Large firms: marketable applications • Research centres and face-to-face contact • Metropolis attracts firms and people • Hinterland lags behind • Large income inequality • Netherlands large enough?
- 24. 24 Metropolitan Markets • Bio- and nanotechnology break through • Large firms: marketable applications • Research centres and face-to-face contact • Metropolis attracts firms and people • Hinterland lags behind • Large income inequality • Netherlands large enough?
- 25. 25 The Magic Circle of Policymaking
- 26. 26 Attractors (A) and mobile production factors (M) AMAMIdeas absorbedlocal varietyneeds scaleweakHigh Tech Campus attractor AAMMDemand AMAMWorkers MMEECCTT
- 27. 27 Connections localgloballocal and globalglobalIdeas link to Randstad link to global knowledge part of local infrastructure part of network High Tech Campus limitedcontinentalglobalglobalFinal goods localnationallocal and globalcontinentalWorkers MMEECCTT
- 28. 28 The knowledge economy fundamental and applied, within firms applied and incremental radical, firm-university linkages direct applications, strong competition Innovation large firmsapplied, differentiation GPT research, firm- university specialisation, competition High Tech Campus generalgeneralspecificspecificKnowledge different workers different workers similar workers similar workers Spillovers among application oriented 0research oriented 0GPT MMEECCTT
- 29. 29 Innovation policy 0++++Innovation subsidy 0+0+Innovation credit +++++Intellectual property rights largesmalllargesmallCompany size incumbentsincumbentsbothentrantsCompany market position genericgenericspecificspecificPolicy orientation 00+0Public – private cooperation hardlylimitedhighlimitedPolicy scope MMEECCTT
- 30. 30 High Tech Campus Eindhoven: summary large firmsapplied, differentiation GPT research, firm - university specialisation, competition Knowledge link to Randstad link to global knowledge part of local infrastructure part of networkConnections absorbedlocal varietyneeds scaleweakAttractor IPRIPR, subsidy and credits PPP, IPR, subsidy IPR, subsidy and credits Policy focus hardlylimitedhighlimitedPolicy support MMEECCTT
- 31. 31 www.nl2040.nl