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Market Outlook 2019
Financial Goals
Asset Allocation Behavioural Finance
ReturnsThe Big Picture
Disruptive technologies
• Licensed as IC Across Canada
• Manage $6.1-Billion ( 2200 families )
• Focus – Private Wealth Management of
Families, Foundations and Trusts
• Integrated Financial advice for professionals,
executives and business owners
• 18 Professional asset managers
• 38 Advisors with CFPs
• 190 total staff
Second Step Third Step
First Step
• What rate of return have you earned after fees for the last 1,3 5 and
10 years?
• Is your compensation the most tax effective it could be?
• What tax rates are you paying on non registered assets?
• What is the tax liability in your estate?
• What income is being generated annually by your current portfolio?
What percentage is that of your retirement income needs?
• What is the most tax efficient way to build investment capital?
• How will you best monetize the equity in your practice ?
What To Do
What’s on Your Bucket List?
Family Legacy
Recreational Property Travel
Avocations
Philanthropy
What impacts the plan?
Returns after fees
and inflation
Size of the estate you
Want to create
How much do you want
to give away and when?
Gifts to Children and Grandkids
Now, later, or never?
Lifestyle
Create a plan before selling or investing
What else impacts the plan?
Tax reform –impact
on compensation and
investment s
Asset Allocation
Future ReturnsThe Big Picture
Your Behaviour
How are you doing ?????
Source: Nicola Wealth Sample Client
Net Worth Retirement and
Estate projections
How Much Can I Spend?
Assumptions:
• $5 Million investable assets after business/practice sale
• 15% average tax rate on retirement income
• Returns between 2% and 5% after inflation and fees
• Preserve capital after inflation
Impact of Returns on Spending
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
After Tax income
$110,000
$153,000
$200,000
$240,000
2%
3%
4%
5%
3% more return =125% more
spendable income
Capital Required to Earn $200,000 After-
tax Income
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,300,000
$7,000,000
$5,300,000
$4,300,000
2
%
3% more return = $6M less capital
required (58%)
Assumptions
• $200,000/year after tax
• 15% average Tax rate
• Preserve capital after
inflation
Achieve these outcomes and there is
more capital for the Bucket List
Achieve Your Bucket List
Where is America?
Three Themes
Demographics
Shale Oil
U.S. Isolationism
Demographics are destiny?
Baby Bust
We need immigration
Senior Moments
Demographics
Demographics
It’s
windy
today.
No,iit’s
Thursday.
So am I,
let’s get a
beer.
More
Saving
Less
Spending
Peak
Spending
Age 50
Is this deflationary?
+60% gas production
-65% oil imports
Will the U.S. need any foreign energy?
60% drop in 4 years ( average =$35/barrel)
It is now
about
technology
Transportation as a Service (TaaS)
• By 2030, 95% of all Passenger Miles will be
by Automated Electric Vehicles (AEVs)
• This will add about $5600 per family in
discretionary spending (10% of income or
$1 trillion)
• There will be minimal production of
Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) or
individual ownership of cars.
• IO cars will be 40% of the fleet, but 5% of
passenger miles
• AEVs will have a lifetime mileage capacity
between 500,000 and 1 million miles
Transportation as a Service (TaaS)
• TaaS will be 4 to 10 times cheaper than
traditional owner driving
• Pre-TaaS companies (Uber and Lyft) drove
500,000 passengers per day in NYC in 2016
• By 2030 passenger cars in the US will drop
from 237 million to 44 million
• 70% fewer cars manufactured annually
• 50% more passenger miles in total at a cost
of $400 billion vs. $1.5 trillion today
Transportation as a Service (TaaS)
• Oil demand would drop to 70 million BPD
from what is predicted by the IEA at 110 million
BPD
• Price of oil could drop to $25 and make 50% or
more of North American Oil uncommercial but
still leave us energy independent
• Keystone and Dakota Access Pipeline would be
stranded
• Energy requirements would drop by 80% and
emissions by 90%
• Huge impact on oil industry, autos/trucks, auto
insurance
• Big geopolitical outcomes (impact on Canada?)
39% Saudi Arabia
15% Russia
1% US
5% Canada
Oil Dependency
Cheaper oil
Who needs oil?
10M+ Barrels/Day
• When will this occur?
• Winners/Losers?
• Impact on related
products and services?
• Impact on portfolio
mix?
Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy
3x US And
Growing
36
Solar Power
More potential close to people
What Will Get in the Way?
This needs this
Who Sells Oil?
36Countries+100,000 BPD
136 Countries net oil imports
Oil or Batteries?
Peak Oil demand 2031-2036
Fossil Fuels=77% energy
When Will Oil Peak?
• Rate of economic growth
• Adoption of Evs
• Battery prices
• Natural Gas substitution
Estimates run from earliest 2023 to
After 2040.
Peak Oil demand has already occurred
in the developed world
Marketing Trump
The Polarizing of Politics
Anywheres vs. Somewheres
90% higher
40% lower
The 1%
Fair Trade?
Huge US tax cuts lead Americans to buy more imported goods
Observations
• Demographics matters and in this case
the US wins
• Shale oil is a game changer
• Globalization is under pressure
• The US is more independent then
perhaps any other single country
• Russia is aging and in decline
• The Euro shows how hard it is to have
a monetary union without a fiscal one
• Populism could be here for a while
Where are markets going?
Many Happy Returns (1870-2015)
Asset Class Returns 1870-2015 (NBER)
4.6%
6.1%
11.1% 10.8%
3.3%
8.9%
10.7%
22.8%
T-Bills Bonds Real Estate Equities
Nominal Return Volatility
Same Return
Liquidity and
behaviour
Many Happy Returns?
Can a 4% real rate of return be achieved without
significant increase in risk?
Cape Shiller 10-Year PE (peaks)
1929
1936
1966
2000
2008
2018
Higher than 1929
0.2%
-0.8%
-2.2%
-0.9%
2.3%
-0.3%
4.0%
1929 1937 1966 2000 2008 Average Goal
No real return
for five years
5 Year 60/40 Balanced
After Inflation and Fees After CAPE Peak
Source: Morningstar
The American Position
Why?
• Increased regulation and
compliance
• Mergers and Acquisitions
• PE and VC firms reduce
need for public listings
• Can raise new capital
privately
What is Real Estate?
Real
Latin – Realis
(actual, existing, true)
(relating to things)
Estate
Latin – Stare
(to be, exist)
(status or standing –
a measure of wealth)
What is Real Estate?
Investment >$100Tr.
Source: Savills 2017
Multi Family
20%
Commercial
11%
Farm/Timber
11%
Public Equities
23%
Securitised Debt
33%
Gold
2%
42%
Global Investable Assets
Why would this
be 60-75% of an
Investment Portfolio?
Source: Savills 2017
75% stocks
No real estate
21st Century Investing
0%
5%
10%
15%
S&P 500 TSX IPD Real
estate
3.7% 3.5% 3.4%
5.7% 6.1%
9.9%
Price Total
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
S&P 500 TSX IPD Real
estate
$2,890,000
$3,050,000
$5,900,000
Cash flow from $1,000,000 invested in Jan/ 2000
( Dividends reinvested )
$50000
2000
$11,200
2018 2000
$12,800
$85,000
2018
$253,000
$78,000
2000 2018
21st Century Investing
0
5
10
15
20
S&P 500 TSX IPD Real
estate
16 15
42 2.5
1
Price volatility Income volatility
Is this the right model?
Was it the right model?
Annual returns since January 2000 after inflation
1.8% 2.2%
1.9%
Asset Allocation
Asset Allocation for HNW Investors Globally
How Pensions Are Investing
Most investors close to
100%
Our Asset Allocation
CDN/US
CDN /
Foreign
(Private &
Public)
Bonds
Mortgages
Private Debt
Hedge Funds
Precious Metals
Real Estate
24%
Equity
36%
Fixed
Income
35%
Alternative
5%
9.0%
8.1%
10-year Annual Returns to 2018
Better returns with less than half the volatility
17.2%
-2.0%
50.0%
-42.0%
Best year Worst year
Actual real estate transactions
Per IPD data 2005-2018
TSX REIT index less fees
2005-2018
Cash Flow is King
Capital Growth
-12% to +12%
Income return 5% to 8.5%
2/3rds of total
Return is incom
( Rents)
-2.1%
-0.1%
-1.1%
4.0%
5.1%
3.1%
4.1% 4.0%
2000 2008 Average Goal
60/40 vs. Core Net of Inflation and Fees
5 Years After CAPE Peak
Nicola Wealth Core Composite: 1yr: 3.04% 3yr: 6.34% 5yr: 6.40% 10yr: 7.50% Since Inception 6.89% 60/40 Source: Morningstar
Where has the low
hanging fruit gone?
Getting harder
all the time2%< historical
Still expensive
How low can they go?
Where has the low
hanging fruit gone?
Private debt (mortgages
and corporate lending)2%< historical
Still expensive
How low can they go?
Asset allocation
Covered writing
Value investing
Dividend growth
Build to own
Value add
Modest leverage
Market Cycles
Markets more expensive
Lower probability for above
average future returns
Markets less expensive
Market Timing
Should you try and time this?
No
Should you focus on your tactics ?
Yes
Asset Allocation
Rebalancing
Defensive Cash flow assets
3.17% +74%
14%
Less
The S&P 500 ® Dividend
Aristocrats ® Index, constructed
and maintained by S&P Dow
Jones Indices LLC, targets
companies that are currently
members of the S&P 500 ® ,
have increased dividend
payments each year for at least
25 years, and meet certain
market capitalization and
liquidity requirements.
2.3%/yr.
75% more -
24years
Active vs.Passive Investing
How Do ETFs Compare Over 10 Years?
10% 10%
22%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Canadian equities Canadian Bonds S&P 500 MSCI
ETF
1st and 2nd quartile over ten years
Passive vs. Active“ . . . the most active stock pickers have been able to
add value to their investors, beating the
benchmark indices by about 1.26% per year after all
fees and expenses . . . . Closet indexers
have essentially just matched their benchmark index
performance before fees, which has
produced consistent underperformance after fees.
Economically, this means that there are some
inefficiencies in the market that can be exploited by
active stock selection.”
Shrinking from 60% to 20% in 30 years
Active vs. Passive Investing
What is an Active Manager?
• 2007 Yale Study (Updated 2013 FAJ)
• Cremers and Petajisto
• Focused positions (example Oakmark
Select with 20 positions)
• Not always within the benchmark
• Different trading strategies and not
market weighted
Rising Interest Rates
The impact on returns
2.7% 2.75%
2.57%
1.93%
1.74%
0.18%
0.91%
-0.22%
0.62%
-0.10%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Then 12/13 Now
AMERICA
Then 12/13 Now
GERMANY
Then 12/13 Now
SWITZERLAND
Then 12/13 Now
JAPAN
Then 12/13 Now
CANADA
When are they going to rise?
10-Year Bond Yields 2013 vs. 2019
10 years
from
now
97 SF
Inverted yield Curves
10 year bond rates less 2 yr.
Recession
??????
Current spread
is 21 bps.
Recession
Recession
Recession
2%/yr.
o 60 Professionals
o Over $6-Billion invested
o Started 1969
Who Manages Private Equity
16.6%
18.8%
7.8%
9.8%
13.9%
17.1%
14.2%
21.3%
3 years 5 years 10 years 20 years
S&P500 Northleaf PE Global Program
Bull Market
Long-Term Difference
Northleaf PE Returns vs. S&P 500
Returns to June 30, 2014. Northleaf returns gross of Northleaf fees.
Issues
• Illiquid asset class
• Hard to diversify
• Significant minimum
investment
• Higher fees on committed
capital
• Due diligence on managers
• Fund of funds likely best
option
A Genius Bromance
Daniel Kahneman
• Introvert
• Holocaust Survivor
• Psychologist
• Taught at UBC
• Nobel Prize 2002 in
Economics
Amos Tversky
• Extrovert
• Israeli Sabra
• Psychologist
• Taught at Stanford
• Died before Nobel prize
Loss Avoidance
Win
85%
Lose
15%Guaranteed Win Majority
Guaranteed Loss
Win
15%Lose
85%Majority
Seven Habits of Highly
Ineffective Investors
We’re in the
Gifted Program
80% Think they are in the top 50%
Over-Optimism
What if everyone is above average ?
2006 Survey of 300 Fund managers -76% said they were
Above average – the other 24% said they were average .
100% were average or better ???????
Gambling with House Money
Can we up the
minimum bet?
Investors increase their
aggressiveness when they win first.
Increase risk when
market rises
Reduce risk when
market drops
Gambling with House Money
Can we up the
minimum bet?
The Emotional Investor
Minsky Moment
The longer things grow or remain stable
The greater the
Fall will be in the
Minsky Moment
3-5% annual loss of return
The Impact of Emotion in Investing
Emotional Investing
5.8%
1.8%
Fund Investor
Vanguard Value Fund
10-year return (01/2017) Name Fund Investor
Vanguard Growth
Stock
Index
8.1% 5.3%
Vanguard
Small Cap
Value Index
7.5% 4.2%
Vanguard
Small Cap Growth
index
8.1% 7.2%
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-
ideas/strategy-lab/index-investing/how-factor-based-
investors-take-bigger-risks/article34179810/
-2.8%
-0.9%
-3.2%
Behavioural Finance
Can you sell when you are
winning and buy when you
are losing ?
Managing Assets More Efficiently
Alternative Strategies,
15.0%
High Yield Bonds, 7.3%
Preferred Shares, 4.5%
Canadian equitries ,
17.0%
Real Estate, 20.0%
Mortgages, 11.0%
Bonds, 9.0%
Foreign Bonds, 5.4%
Cash, 4.0%
Foreign Equities, 12.1%
4.6%
Re-Balance
-2.3%
2.3% for 2018
(Morningstar Neutral
Balanced =-4.7%)
Spock or Homer ????
• Know thyself ( avoid overconfidence )
• Embrace Uncertainty( Minsky Moments )
• Play the Odds ( Avoid Loss Aversion)
• Diversification in asset classes but focus within them
• Accept pain ( necessary path for growth )
Behaving Well
Higher Taxes
Actual and Possible
Results 2016
• 4% higher marginal tax over $200,000
• Overall tax on first $200,000 lower
• Reduced TFSAs to $5500
• No Income splitting of salaries
• Stock options fully taxed over $100,000 per
year (may have different rules for CCPCs)
• Change of tax rates for professional
corporations and ability to income split?
• 4% higher corporate tax on passive income
Tax Reform 2017
Actual and Possible
Results 2016
• 4% higher marginal tax over $200,000
• Overall tax on first $200,000 lower
• Reduced TFSAs to $5500
• No Income splitting of salaries
• Stock options fully taxed over $100,000 per
year (may have different rules for CCPCs)
• Change of tax rates for professional
corporations and ability to income split?
• 4% higher corporate tax on passive income
Resurrected
and improved
The rest of the story
n
25% swing in 100 years
10 developed countries
either less upwardly mobile
or less equal in income than
us or both
Rising since the 70’s
Who are the 1%
Who are the 1%?
• 135,000 Households
• Average income $500,000+( based on $458,000 for 2013)
• Entry level $260,000 ( $225,000 in 2013)
• Investable Net worth about $4Million
• Currently pay 20% of all personal income tax in Canada
• Equal to 11% of all businesses in Canada and 5% of self-
employed
• Assuming 2/3rds of the 1% are professionals or
business owners then about 7% of all incorporated
entities are owned by the 1%
What Else is in the Rest of the story?
The Dentist and The Civil Servant
• Bob graduates with
B Comm. and joins
civil service age 25
• Entry level salary is
$40,000/year
• Gets MBA at age 30
• Moves up the ranks
to ADM by age 50
• Retires age 60 with
salary of $200,000
per year
• Indexed pension at
age 60 is
$133,000/year
• Cheryl finishes dental
school at age 27
• Starts as associate with
student debt of $175,000
• Buys practice with loan of
$400,000 at age 32
• Practice grosses $900,000
per year
• Overhead is 65%
• Starts taking salary to
maximize RRSP’s
• Is able to leave $50,000
per year in Dentco to
save for retirement and
future maternity leaves
and payoff student debt.
What Else Do We Need to Know?
• Bob’s pension is fully guaranteed . No investment risk .
• To fund Bob’s pension at 4% real rate of return is takes 50%+ of career
income . If Bob’s option is RRSP or DC pension his maximum
contribution employer / employee is 18% of his salary or 36% of what
his pension will be .
• The tax rate on this additional saving is 0% when earned and 0% when
accumulating
• Medcos tax rate is 12% when earned and 50% when accumulating .
• Cheryl funds 100% of savings for retirement and accepts risk on returns
• Expected RRSP balance for Cheryl age 60 is $1.4M . Value of Dentco
savings $1.3M. Practice is worth $600,000 Total $3.5M or 100% of the
value of Bob’s pension.
• Cheryl has to fund 100% of sick pay, holiday pay, maternity leave , health
benefits .
• When Bob retires he lowers his tax by splitting pension income with his
spouse before age 65.
Trust Fund Buddies
Tax Reform 2017
What’s Being Plucked?
• Income splitting of dividends from private corporations
• Increase tax on passive corporate income that could reach 71% when paid
out as dividends
• Pipeline planning that converts dividends to capital gains is prevented
How is the Goose Doing Now?
• Income splitting allowed over age 65 with a spouse
• Otherwise no, unless labour or financial contribution
• Passive rules stay the same except reduction in SBD if passive income over
$50,000/year; more expensive to recover RDTOH in some cases
• Integrated tax on passive income can be as high as 59% in Ontario
Tax Reform 2018
Before Tax Reform
• Dividend compensation if SBD
• Income split using dividends and trust
• Accumulate passive assets in CCPC
and recover RDTOH when dividends
paid
• SBD not impacted by passive assets
After Tax Reform
• Salary or Dividend situation
dependent
• Over 65 on with spouse otherwise
labour or capital
• CCPC still better but try and
minimize taxable passive income
• Start losing SBD at $50,000 of
passive income. 100% gone at
$150,000. Does it make much
difference?
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000 $50,000
$25,000
$60,000
$30,000
$50,000
$7,500 $10,000 $12,500
Passive Tax Analysis
125% of New
Passive income
If Passive income rises from $50,000 to $150,00 or and increase of
$100,000 then Corporate taxes will increase by $125,000
Tax Reform 2018
Observations and general guidelines
• Can make sense to now maximize CPP depending on assumptions
and incremental benefits
• Blend of salary and dividends may be ideal
• GRIP is salary to maximize RRSP/IPP .
• Likely better to not try and recover RDTOH and wait until lower
income years or no active business income ( means current income
would be all T4)
• Look for guidance on maximum salaries for spouses
Individual
Pension Plans
New IPP Age 60: Maximum Income & Past Service
ContributionsNew IPP in 2018 – 60-Year Old
$ 400000
$ 750,000
2017 Terminal Funding
Total funding available
40,0002017 Current Service Contribution
$ 310,000Employer Past Service Contribution
(490,000)Transfer From Employee’s RRSP
$ 800,000Value of Pension (1991 – 2017)
IPP vs. RRSP: Terminal Funding at 60
$26,000 $40,000
$310,000
$400,000
$750,000
RRSP IPP current IPP past serviceTerminal funding IPP total
Total funding
$750,000
IPP yes or no?
• When income received it can be split with
spouse .
• Future earnings to age 71 can be tax
deferred .
• Contributions tax deductible ?
• Offset high rate tax on passive income
after retirement ???
• Amortize funding over 10 years if
required.
• Trigger pregnant gains in the year IPP
funding occurs?
• Generally better than RRSP’s after age 50
• Shelter proceeds from asset sale
Issues
• Limited to RRSP eligible
assets
• Fully taxable in estate on
second death( insured
version is an option)
• Restricted Liquidity
Tax Reform 2018
What about CCPC’s with $10M plus in investable assets
• Likely lose 100% of SBD
• If they have active business income at 27% could be best ot isolate
all passive income into holdco
• Transfer as many expenses to holdco as possible ( salaries???, IPP
funding , interest expense ( especially leveraged life insurance ) ,
donations
• Residual taxable income at 50.7% less RDTOH at 30.7% but taxed as
ineligible dividend
• Use annual CDA to fund income to trusts or to income split with
spouse if under age 65
Tax Reform 2018
How RDTOH would work in GRIP environment
Taxable Passive Income $100,000
Tax Payable corporately $50,700
RDTOH $30,700
Dividend required to recover RDTOH $80,800
Personal Tax @43.7% ( was 31.7%) $35,300
Net Corporate tax $20,000
Total tax $55,300
Personal tax on $100,000 Bonus $49,400 ($5900 less)
Tax Reform 2018
Impact of waiting until after age 65 or when no active business income
Assumptions:
RDTOH has been accumulating annually and is now at $380,000
Couple age 65 and no other income
Spending needs are $200,000 annually after tax
Dividends paid from CCPC to each $125,000
Tax Payable $24,000
RDTOH recovered $47,500
Net Tax paid -$23,500
Average tax rate on dividend income 19%
RDTOH fully recovered within four years
Cdn Equities
25%
Foreign
Equities
15%
Real Estate
35%
Life Insurance
10%
Pref. Shares
5%
Private Equity
5%
Alternatives
5%
Asset Allocation for Taxable Private Corporation
Historical Tax Analysis
11.5%
9.7%10.1%
5.0% 4.6% 5.4% 5.9%
9.3%
Annual Returns
53.0%
41.0%
17.0%
0.0%
75.0%
20.0%
5.0%
30.0%
% Taxable
15.2% Tax)
Asset Allocation for Registered Plans and Foundations
Interest Bearing
Tax deferred in
registered accts.
A tale of two Taxpayers
Expected Return 6% Expected Return 7.5%
• $2.2M portfolio in
private company
• Qualifies for SBD
What is overall tax and
tax rate going forward ?
$0
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
$160,000
$200,000
$170,000
$50,000
$23,500
$0 $0
$23,500
$0
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
$160,000
$140,000
$72,000
$34,200
$110,000
$16,500
$50,700
21% more return 54% less tax
13.8%
36.2%
Planning Factors
• Corporate assets
• Age
• Business Income
• Spending needs
Planning needs to be customized and will change over time.
The Ideal Tax Haven
Low Tax rates
Good health Care
Great weather
Good food and wine
Low Tax rates
Good health Care
Grim weather
Timbits and Icewine
Paying Less Tax On Cash Flow
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
Non Taxable
Taxable
100%
10%
67%
70%
50% % Taxable
Income Split
$20,000
$130,000
Tax
Spendable
Individual Tax Position
13% Tax
$185,000
$115,000
Taxable
Non Taxable
How Much For The Taxman?
Tax Free Cash Flow or Credits
1. Prescribed annuities vs. Bonds
2. Dividends taxed at about 67% of
interest
3. Rental income partial tax deferment
4. Income split equally (trusts, RRIFs and
Hold Cos)
Nice tax haven
…eh?!
Why and How Does This Work?
13% Tax
The 4% Rule
50% success
A Couple’s Tale
Bob and Linda are both age 60 . In good health and
considering retirement . Here are the other facts
• Bob is a lawyer and Linda a dentist.
• They are both incorporated and have personal ,
registered and corporate portfolios of $2M each
• Bob’s portfolio is best represented by
Morningstar’s Balanced Index.
• Linda’s portfolio is invested with us in a Core
model
• They want to know the likely impact of
withdrawing 4% of their capital annually and
adjusting that to inflation.
• We recreate that model for them going from
January 2000 to December 2018
A Couple’s Tale
Results by December 31st /2018
• Both have taken out income of $1,827,245. Starting with $80,000 in
2000 and ending with $114,260 in 2018 .
• Bob’s capital has dropped to $1,711,000 ( about 85% of original capital )
• Linda’s capital is now $3,740,000 ( 187% of original capital and 120
more than Bob’s )
How does the 4% rule work
A Couple’s Tale
What happened?
• Bob’s indexed income greater than his overall
return
• 85% of Linda’s return from cash flow so less
volatility and no need to sell assets during
negative years such as 2008 .
• SWP have greater negative impact in losing years
Planning Options
Tax Efficient Asset Allocation
IPP vs. RRSP
Over Age 50
Prescribed Rate
Loans
Insurance With or
Without Leverage
Thank You
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments contain risk and may gain or lose value. Returns are net of fund expenses charged to date.
This is not a sales solicitation. This investment is generally intended for tax residents of Canada who are accredited investors. Some residency restrictions may
apply. All investments contain risk and may gain or lose value. Please read the relevant documentation for additional details and important disclosure
information, including terms of redemption and limited liquidity. Please speak to your Nicola Wealth advisor for advice based on your unique circumstances.
Nicola Wealth is registered as a Portfolio Manager, Exempt Market Dealer and Investment Fund Manager with the required provincial securities’ commissions.
Nicola Crosby is a subsidiary of Nicola Wealth Management.
*The Nicola Wealth Composite Returns represent the total returns of Cdn. dollar denominated accounts of all fee-paying portfolios with a Nicola Wealth
Composite mandate. The composite includes clients who are both fully discretionary and nondiscretionary. Historical net of fee composite performance returns
are calculated using individual realized time-weighted client returns net of fees and is presented before tax. The Nicola Wealth inclusion policy is based on
clients’ weights at calendar month end. The composite returns are asset-weighted based upon ending monthly market value. The Nicola Wealth Composite
mandate may change throughout time. Additional information regarding policies for calculating and reporting returns is available upon request. The composite
returns presented represent past performance and is not a reliable indicator of future results, which may vary. Nicola Composite Portfolio past performance is
not indicative of future results. Returns are net of fund expenses. Please refer to the Nicola Wealth Funds disclosure document for additional details and
important disclosure information. The Nicola Core Portfolio Fund Asset Mix takes into consideration only the primary asset class of the aggregated funds but
does not take into consideration the underlying fund’s holdings of other asset classes. For example, the Nicola Primary Mortgage Fund is allocated in its entirety

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Nicola Wealth - Pacific Dental Conference - John Nicola

  • 1.
  • 2. Market Outlook 2019 Financial Goals Asset Allocation Behavioural Finance ReturnsThe Big Picture Disruptive technologies
  • 3. • Licensed as IC Across Canada • Manage $6.1-Billion ( 2200 families ) • Focus – Private Wealth Management of Families, Foundations and Trusts • Integrated Financial advice for professionals, executives and business owners • 18 Professional asset managers • 38 Advisors with CFPs • 190 total staff
  • 4. Second Step Third Step First Step • What rate of return have you earned after fees for the last 1,3 5 and 10 years? • Is your compensation the most tax effective it could be? • What tax rates are you paying on non registered assets? • What is the tax liability in your estate? • What income is being generated annually by your current portfolio? What percentage is that of your retirement income needs? • What is the most tax efficient way to build investment capital? • How will you best monetize the equity in your practice ? What To Do
  • 5. What’s on Your Bucket List? Family Legacy Recreational Property Travel Avocations Philanthropy
  • 6. What impacts the plan? Returns after fees and inflation Size of the estate you Want to create How much do you want to give away and when? Gifts to Children and Grandkids Now, later, or never? Lifestyle Create a plan before selling or investing
  • 7. What else impacts the plan? Tax reform –impact on compensation and investment s Asset Allocation Future ReturnsThe Big Picture Your Behaviour
  • 8. How are you doing ????? Source: Nicola Wealth Sample Client
  • 9. Net Worth Retirement and Estate projections
  • 10. How Much Can I Spend? Assumptions: • $5 Million investable assets after business/practice sale • 15% average tax rate on retirement income • Returns between 2% and 5% after inflation and fees • Preserve capital after inflation
  • 11. Impact of Returns on Spending $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 After Tax income $110,000 $153,000 $200,000 $240,000 2% 3% 4% 5% 3% more return =125% more spendable income
  • 12. Capital Required to Earn $200,000 After- tax Income $0 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,300,000 $7,000,000 $5,300,000 $4,300,000 2 % 3% more return = $6M less capital required (58%) Assumptions • $200,000/year after tax • 15% average Tax rate • Preserve capital after inflation
  • 13. Achieve these outcomes and there is more capital for the Bucket List Achieve Your Bucket List
  • 14.
  • 18. Baby Bust We need immigration
  • 23.
  • 24. +60% gas production -65% oil imports Will the U.S. need any foreign energy?
  • 25. 60% drop in 4 years ( average =$35/barrel) It is now about technology
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. Transportation as a Service (TaaS) • By 2030, 95% of all Passenger Miles will be by Automated Electric Vehicles (AEVs) • This will add about $5600 per family in discretionary spending (10% of income or $1 trillion) • There will be minimal production of Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) or individual ownership of cars. • IO cars will be 40% of the fleet, but 5% of passenger miles • AEVs will have a lifetime mileage capacity between 500,000 and 1 million miles
  • 29. Transportation as a Service (TaaS) • TaaS will be 4 to 10 times cheaper than traditional owner driving • Pre-TaaS companies (Uber and Lyft) drove 500,000 passengers per day in NYC in 2016 • By 2030 passenger cars in the US will drop from 237 million to 44 million • 70% fewer cars manufactured annually • 50% more passenger miles in total at a cost of $400 billion vs. $1.5 trillion today
  • 30. Transportation as a Service (TaaS) • Oil demand would drop to 70 million BPD from what is predicted by the IEA at 110 million BPD • Price of oil could drop to $25 and make 50% or more of North American Oil uncommercial but still leave us energy independent • Keystone and Dakota Access Pipeline would be stranded • Energy requirements would drop by 80% and emissions by 90% • Huge impact on oil industry, autos/trucks, auto insurance • Big geopolitical outcomes (impact on Canada?)
  • 31. 39% Saudi Arabia 15% Russia 1% US 5% Canada Oil Dependency Cheaper oil Who needs oil? 10M+ Barrels/Day
  • 32. • When will this occur? • Winners/Losers? • Impact on related products and services? • Impact on portfolio mix?
  • 34.
  • 35. Renewable Energy 3x US And Growing
  • 36. 36 Solar Power More potential close to people
  • 37. What Will Get in the Way? This needs this
  • 38. Who Sells Oil? 36Countries+100,000 BPD 136 Countries net oil imports
  • 40. Peak Oil demand 2031-2036 Fossil Fuels=77% energy
  • 41. When Will Oil Peak? • Rate of economic growth • Adoption of Evs • Battery prices • Natural Gas substitution Estimates run from earliest 2023 to After 2040. Peak Oil demand has already occurred in the developed world
  • 43. The Polarizing of Politics
  • 44.
  • 47. Fair Trade? Huge US tax cuts lead Americans to buy more imported goods
  • 48. Observations • Demographics matters and in this case the US wins • Shale oil is a game changer • Globalization is under pressure • The US is more independent then perhaps any other single country • Russia is aging and in decline • The Euro shows how hard it is to have a monetary union without a fiscal one • Populism could be here for a while
  • 50. Many Happy Returns (1870-2015)
  • 51. Asset Class Returns 1870-2015 (NBER) 4.6% 6.1% 11.1% 10.8% 3.3% 8.9% 10.7% 22.8% T-Bills Bonds Real Estate Equities Nominal Return Volatility Same Return Liquidity and behaviour
  • 52. Many Happy Returns? Can a 4% real rate of return be achieved without significant increase in risk?
  • 53. Cape Shiller 10-Year PE (peaks) 1929 1936 1966 2000 2008 2018 Higher than 1929
  • 54. 0.2% -0.8% -2.2% -0.9% 2.3% -0.3% 4.0% 1929 1937 1966 2000 2008 Average Goal No real return for five years 5 Year 60/40 Balanced After Inflation and Fees After CAPE Peak Source: Morningstar
  • 56. Why? • Increased regulation and compliance • Mergers and Acquisitions • PE and VC firms reduce need for public listings • Can raise new capital privately
  • 57. What is Real Estate? Real Latin – Realis (actual, existing, true) (relating to things) Estate Latin – Stare (to be, exist) (status or standing – a measure of wealth)
  • 58. What is Real Estate?
  • 60. Multi Family 20% Commercial 11% Farm/Timber 11% Public Equities 23% Securitised Debt 33% Gold 2% 42% Global Investable Assets Why would this be 60-75% of an Investment Portfolio? Source: Savills 2017
  • 62. 21st Century Investing 0% 5% 10% 15% S&P 500 TSX IPD Real estate 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 5.7% 6.1% 9.9% Price Total $0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 S&P 500 TSX IPD Real estate $2,890,000 $3,050,000 $5,900,000
  • 63. Cash flow from $1,000,000 invested in Jan/ 2000 ( Dividends reinvested ) $50000 2000 $11,200 2018 2000 $12,800 $85,000 2018 $253,000 $78,000 2000 2018
  • 64. 21st Century Investing 0 5 10 15 20 S&P 500 TSX IPD Real estate 16 15 42 2.5 1 Price volatility Income volatility
  • 65. Is this the right model? Was it the right model? Annual returns since January 2000 after inflation 1.8% 2.2% 1.9% Asset Allocation
  • 66. Asset Allocation for HNW Investors Globally
  • 67. How Pensions Are Investing
  • 69. Our Asset Allocation CDN/US CDN / Foreign (Private & Public) Bonds Mortgages Private Debt Hedge Funds Precious Metals Real Estate 24% Equity 36% Fixed Income 35% Alternative 5%
  • 70. 9.0% 8.1% 10-year Annual Returns to 2018 Better returns with less than half the volatility 17.2% -2.0% 50.0% -42.0% Best year Worst year Actual real estate transactions Per IPD data 2005-2018 TSX REIT index less fees 2005-2018
  • 71. Cash Flow is King Capital Growth -12% to +12% Income return 5% to 8.5% 2/3rds of total Return is incom ( Rents)
  • 72. -2.1% -0.1% -1.1% 4.0% 5.1% 3.1% 4.1% 4.0% 2000 2008 Average Goal 60/40 vs. Core Net of Inflation and Fees 5 Years After CAPE Peak Nicola Wealth Core Composite: 1yr: 3.04% 3yr: 6.34% 5yr: 6.40% 10yr: 7.50% Since Inception 6.89% 60/40 Source: Morningstar
  • 73. Where has the low hanging fruit gone? Getting harder all the time2%< historical Still expensive How low can they go?
  • 74. Where has the low hanging fruit gone? Private debt (mortgages and corporate lending)2%< historical Still expensive How low can they go? Asset allocation Covered writing Value investing Dividend growth Build to own Value add Modest leverage
  • 75. Market Cycles Markets more expensive Lower probability for above average future returns Markets less expensive
  • 76. Market Timing Should you try and time this? No Should you focus on your tactics ? Yes Asset Allocation Rebalancing Defensive Cash flow assets
  • 78. The S&P 500 ® Dividend Aristocrats ® Index, constructed and maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, targets companies that are currently members of the S&P 500 ® , have increased dividend payments each year for at least 25 years, and meet certain market capitalization and liquidity requirements. 2.3%/yr. 75% more - 24years
  • 80. How Do ETFs Compare Over 10 Years? 10% 10% 22% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Canadian equities Canadian Bonds S&P 500 MSCI ETF 1st and 2nd quartile over ten years
  • 81. Passive vs. Active“ . . . the most active stock pickers have been able to add value to their investors, beating the benchmark indices by about 1.26% per year after all fees and expenses . . . . Closet indexers have essentially just matched their benchmark index performance before fees, which has produced consistent underperformance after fees. Economically, this means that there are some inefficiencies in the market that can be exploited by active stock selection.” Shrinking from 60% to 20% in 30 years
  • 82. Active vs. Passive Investing What is an Active Manager? • 2007 Yale Study (Updated 2013 FAJ) • Cremers and Petajisto • Focused positions (example Oakmark Select with 20 positions) • Not always within the benchmark • Different trading strategies and not market weighted
  • 83. Rising Interest Rates The impact on returns
  • 84. 2.7% 2.75% 2.57% 1.93% 1.74% 0.18% 0.91% -0.22% 0.62% -0.10% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Then 12/13 Now AMERICA Then 12/13 Now GERMANY Then 12/13 Now SWITZERLAND Then 12/13 Now JAPAN Then 12/13 Now CANADA When are they going to rise? 10-Year Bond Yields 2013 vs. 2019 10 years from now 97 SF
  • 85. Inverted yield Curves 10 year bond rates less 2 yr. Recession ?????? Current spread is 21 bps. Recession Recession Recession
  • 87. o 60 Professionals o Over $6-Billion invested o Started 1969 Who Manages Private Equity
  • 88. 16.6% 18.8% 7.8% 9.8% 13.9% 17.1% 14.2% 21.3% 3 years 5 years 10 years 20 years S&P500 Northleaf PE Global Program Bull Market Long-Term Difference Northleaf PE Returns vs. S&P 500 Returns to June 30, 2014. Northleaf returns gross of Northleaf fees.
  • 89. Issues • Illiquid asset class • Hard to diversify • Significant minimum investment • Higher fees on committed capital • Due diligence on managers • Fund of funds likely best option
  • 90. A Genius Bromance Daniel Kahneman • Introvert • Holocaust Survivor • Psychologist • Taught at UBC • Nobel Prize 2002 in Economics Amos Tversky • Extrovert • Israeli Sabra • Psychologist • Taught at Stanford • Died before Nobel prize
  • 91. Loss Avoidance Win 85% Lose 15%Guaranteed Win Majority Guaranteed Loss Win 15%Lose 85%Majority
  • 92. Seven Habits of Highly Ineffective Investors
  • 93. We’re in the Gifted Program 80% Think they are in the top 50% Over-Optimism
  • 94. What if everyone is above average ? 2006 Survey of 300 Fund managers -76% said they were Above average – the other 24% said they were average . 100% were average or better ???????
  • 95. Gambling with House Money Can we up the minimum bet? Investors increase their aggressiveness when they win first.
  • 96. Increase risk when market rises Reduce risk when market drops Gambling with House Money Can we up the minimum bet?
  • 98. Minsky Moment The longer things grow or remain stable The greater the Fall will be in the Minsky Moment
  • 99. 3-5% annual loss of return The Impact of Emotion in Investing
  • 100. Emotional Investing 5.8% 1.8% Fund Investor Vanguard Value Fund 10-year return (01/2017) Name Fund Investor Vanguard Growth Stock Index 8.1% 5.3% Vanguard Small Cap Value Index 7.5% 4.2% Vanguard Small Cap Growth index 8.1% 7.2% http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment- ideas/strategy-lab/index-investing/how-factor-based- investors-take-bigger-risks/article34179810/ -2.8% -0.9% -3.2%
  • 101. Behavioural Finance Can you sell when you are winning and buy when you are losing ?
  • 102. Managing Assets More Efficiently Alternative Strategies, 15.0% High Yield Bonds, 7.3% Preferred Shares, 4.5% Canadian equitries , 17.0% Real Estate, 20.0% Mortgages, 11.0% Bonds, 9.0% Foreign Bonds, 5.4% Cash, 4.0% Foreign Equities, 12.1% 4.6% Re-Balance -2.3% 2.3% for 2018 (Morningstar Neutral Balanced =-4.7%)
  • 103. Spock or Homer ????
  • 104. • Know thyself ( avoid overconfidence ) • Embrace Uncertainty( Minsky Moments ) • Play the Odds ( Avoid Loss Aversion) • Diversification in asset classes but focus within them • Accept pain ( necessary path for growth ) Behaving Well
  • 105. Higher Taxes Actual and Possible Results 2016 • 4% higher marginal tax over $200,000 • Overall tax on first $200,000 lower • Reduced TFSAs to $5500 • No Income splitting of salaries • Stock options fully taxed over $100,000 per year (may have different rules for CCPCs) • Change of tax rates for professional corporations and ability to income split? • 4% higher corporate tax on passive income
  • 106. Tax Reform 2017 Actual and Possible Results 2016 • 4% higher marginal tax over $200,000 • Overall tax on first $200,000 lower • Reduced TFSAs to $5500 • No Income splitting of salaries • Stock options fully taxed over $100,000 per year (may have different rules for CCPCs) • Change of tax rates for professional corporations and ability to income split? • 4% higher corporate tax on passive income Resurrected and improved
  • 107. The rest of the story
  • 108. n 25% swing in 100 years 10 developed countries either less upwardly mobile or less equal in income than us or both Rising since the 70’s
  • 109. Who are the 1% Who are the 1%? • 135,000 Households • Average income $500,000+( based on $458,000 for 2013) • Entry level $260,000 ( $225,000 in 2013) • Investable Net worth about $4Million • Currently pay 20% of all personal income tax in Canada • Equal to 11% of all businesses in Canada and 5% of self- employed • Assuming 2/3rds of the 1% are professionals or business owners then about 7% of all incorporated entities are owned by the 1%
  • 110. What Else is in the Rest of the story?
  • 111. The Dentist and The Civil Servant • Bob graduates with B Comm. and joins civil service age 25 • Entry level salary is $40,000/year • Gets MBA at age 30 • Moves up the ranks to ADM by age 50 • Retires age 60 with salary of $200,000 per year • Indexed pension at age 60 is $133,000/year • Cheryl finishes dental school at age 27 • Starts as associate with student debt of $175,000 • Buys practice with loan of $400,000 at age 32 • Practice grosses $900,000 per year • Overhead is 65% • Starts taking salary to maximize RRSP’s • Is able to leave $50,000 per year in Dentco to save for retirement and future maternity leaves and payoff student debt.
  • 112. What Else Do We Need to Know? • Bob’s pension is fully guaranteed . No investment risk . • To fund Bob’s pension at 4% real rate of return is takes 50%+ of career income . If Bob’s option is RRSP or DC pension his maximum contribution employer / employee is 18% of his salary or 36% of what his pension will be . • The tax rate on this additional saving is 0% when earned and 0% when accumulating • Medcos tax rate is 12% when earned and 50% when accumulating . • Cheryl funds 100% of savings for retirement and accepts risk on returns • Expected RRSP balance for Cheryl age 60 is $1.4M . Value of Dentco savings $1.3M. Practice is worth $600,000 Total $3.5M or 100% of the value of Bob’s pension. • Cheryl has to fund 100% of sick pay, holiday pay, maternity leave , health benefits . • When Bob retires he lowers his tax by splitting pension income with his spouse before age 65.
  • 114. Tax Reform 2017 What’s Being Plucked? • Income splitting of dividends from private corporations • Increase tax on passive corporate income that could reach 71% when paid out as dividends • Pipeline planning that converts dividends to capital gains is prevented How is the Goose Doing Now? • Income splitting allowed over age 65 with a spouse • Otherwise no, unless labour or financial contribution • Passive rules stay the same except reduction in SBD if passive income over $50,000/year; more expensive to recover RDTOH in some cases • Integrated tax on passive income can be as high as 59% in Ontario
  • 115. Tax Reform 2018 Before Tax Reform • Dividend compensation if SBD • Income split using dividends and trust • Accumulate passive assets in CCPC and recover RDTOH when dividends paid • SBD not impacted by passive assets After Tax Reform • Salary or Dividend situation dependent • Over 65 on with spouse otherwise labour or capital • CCPC still better but try and minimize taxable passive income • Start losing SBD at $50,000 of passive income. 100% gone at $150,000. Does it make much difference?
  • 116. $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $50,000 $25,000 $60,000 $30,000 $50,000 $7,500 $10,000 $12,500 Passive Tax Analysis 125% of New Passive income If Passive income rises from $50,000 to $150,00 or and increase of $100,000 then Corporate taxes will increase by $125,000
  • 117. Tax Reform 2018 Observations and general guidelines • Can make sense to now maximize CPP depending on assumptions and incremental benefits • Blend of salary and dividends may be ideal • GRIP is salary to maximize RRSP/IPP . • Likely better to not try and recover RDTOH and wait until lower income years or no active business income ( means current income would be all T4) • Look for guidance on maximum salaries for spouses
  • 119. New IPP Age 60: Maximum Income & Past Service ContributionsNew IPP in 2018 – 60-Year Old $ 400000 $ 750,000 2017 Terminal Funding Total funding available 40,0002017 Current Service Contribution $ 310,000Employer Past Service Contribution (490,000)Transfer From Employee’s RRSP $ 800,000Value of Pension (1991 – 2017)
  • 120. IPP vs. RRSP: Terminal Funding at 60 $26,000 $40,000 $310,000 $400,000 $750,000 RRSP IPP current IPP past serviceTerminal funding IPP total Total funding $750,000
  • 121. IPP yes or no? • When income received it can be split with spouse . • Future earnings to age 71 can be tax deferred . • Contributions tax deductible ? • Offset high rate tax on passive income after retirement ??? • Amortize funding over 10 years if required. • Trigger pregnant gains in the year IPP funding occurs? • Generally better than RRSP’s after age 50 • Shelter proceeds from asset sale Issues • Limited to RRSP eligible assets • Fully taxable in estate on second death( insured version is an option) • Restricted Liquidity
  • 122. Tax Reform 2018 What about CCPC’s with $10M plus in investable assets • Likely lose 100% of SBD • If they have active business income at 27% could be best ot isolate all passive income into holdco • Transfer as many expenses to holdco as possible ( salaries???, IPP funding , interest expense ( especially leveraged life insurance ) , donations • Residual taxable income at 50.7% less RDTOH at 30.7% but taxed as ineligible dividend • Use annual CDA to fund income to trusts or to income split with spouse if under age 65
  • 123. Tax Reform 2018 How RDTOH would work in GRIP environment Taxable Passive Income $100,000 Tax Payable corporately $50,700 RDTOH $30,700 Dividend required to recover RDTOH $80,800 Personal Tax @43.7% ( was 31.7%) $35,300 Net Corporate tax $20,000 Total tax $55,300 Personal tax on $100,000 Bonus $49,400 ($5900 less)
  • 124. Tax Reform 2018 Impact of waiting until after age 65 or when no active business income Assumptions: RDTOH has been accumulating annually and is now at $380,000 Couple age 65 and no other income Spending needs are $200,000 annually after tax Dividends paid from CCPC to each $125,000 Tax Payable $24,000 RDTOH recovered $47,500 Net Tax paid -$23,500 Average tax rate on dividend income 19% RDTOH fully recovered within four years
  • 125. Cdn Equities 25% Foreign Equities 15% Real Estate 35% Life Insurance 10% Pref. Shares 5% Private Equity 5% Alternatives 5% Asset Allocation for Taxable Private Corporation
  • 126. Historical Tax Analysis 11.5% 9.7%10.1% 5.0% 4.6% 5.4% 5.9% 9.3% Annual Returns 53.0% 41.0% 17.0% 0.0% 75.0% 20.0% 5.0% 30.0% % Taxable 15.2% Tax)
  • 127. Asset Allocation for Registered Plans and Foundations Interest Bearing Tax deferred in registered accts.
  • 128.
  • 129. A tale of two Taxpayers Expected Return 6% Expected Return 7.5% • $2.2M portfolio in private company • Qualifies for SBD What is overall tax and tax rate going forward ?
  • 131.
  • 132. Planning Factors • Corporate assets • Age • Business Income • Spending needs Planning needs to be customized and will change over time.
  • 133. The Ideal Tax Haven Low Tax rates Good health Care Great weather Good food and wine Low Tax rates Good health Care Grim weather Timbits and Icewine
  • 134. Paying Less Tax On Cash Flow $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 Non Taxable Taxable 100% 10% 67% 70% 50% % Taxable
  • 135. Income Split $20,000 $130,000 Tax Spendable Individual Tax Position 13% Tax $185,000 $115,000 Taxable Non Taxable How Much For The Taxman?
  • 136. Tax Free Cash Flow or Credits 1. Prescribed annuities vs. Bonds 2. Dividends taxed at about 67% of interest 3. Rental income partial tax deferment 4. Income split equally (trusts, RRIFs and Hold Cos) Nice tax haven …eh?! Why and How Does This Work? 13% Tax
  • 137.
  • 138. The 4% Rule 50% success
  • 139. A Couple’s Tale Bob and Linda are both age 60 . In good health and considering retirement . Here are the other facts • Bob is a lawyer and Linda a dentist. • They are both incorporated and have personal , registered and corporate portfolios of $2M each • Bob’s portfolio is best represented by Morningstar’s Balanced Index. • Linda’s portfolio is invested with us in a Core model • They want to know the likely impact of withdrawing 4% of their capital annually and adjusting that to inflation. • We recreate that model for them going from January 2000 to December 2018
  • 140. A Couple’s Tale Results by December 31st /2018 • Both have taken out income of $1,827,245. Starting with $80,000 in 2000 and ending with $114,260 in 2018 . • Bob’s capital has dropped to $1,711,000 ( about 85% of original capital ) • Linda’s capital is now $3,740,000 ( 187% of original capital and 120 more than Bob’s )
  • 141. How does the 4% rule work
  • 142. A Couple’s Tale What happened? • Bob’s indexed income greater than his overall return • 85% of Linda’s return from cash flow so less volatility and no need to sell assets during negative years such as 2008 . • SWP have greater negative impact in losing years
  • 143. Planning Options Tax Efficient Asset Allocation IPP vs. RRSP Over Age 50 Prescribed Rate Loans Insurance With or Without Leverage
  • 145. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments contain risk and may gain or lose value. Returns are net of fund expenses charged to date. This is not a sales solicitation. This investment is generally intended for tax residents of Canada who are accredited investors. Some residency restrictions may apply. All investments contain risk and may gain or lose value. Please read the relevant documentation for additional details and important disclosure information, including terms of redemption and limited liquidity. Please speak to your Nicola Wealth advisor for advice based on your unique circumstances. Nicola Wealth is registered as a Portfolio Manager, Exempt Market Dealer and Investment Fund Manager with the required provincial securities’ commissions. Nicola Crosby is a subsidiary of Nicola Wealth Management. *The Nicola Wealth Composite Returns represent the total returns of Cdn. dollar denominated accounts of all fee-paying portfolios with a Nicola Wealth Composite mandate. The composite includes clients who are both fully discretionary and nondiscretionary. Historical net of fee composite performance returns are calculated using individual realized time-weighted client returns net of fees and is presented before tax. The Nicola Wealth inclusion policy is based on clients’ weights at calendar month end. The composite returns are asset-weighted based upon ending monthly market value. The Nicola Wealth Composite mandate may change throughout time. Additional information regarding policies for calculating and reporting returns is available upon request. The composite returns presented represent past performance and is not a reliable indicator of future results, which may vary. Nicola Composite Portfolio past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns are net of fund expenses. Please refer to the Nicola Wealth Funds disclosure document for additional details and important disclosure information. The Nicola Core Portfolio Fund Asset Mix takes into consideration only the primary asset class of the aggregated funds but does not take into consideration the underlying fund’s holdings of other asset classes. For example, the Nicola Primary Mortgage Fund is allocated in its entirety