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Nexant Germany
Introduction
March 2019
The leading advisor in the energy and chemicals sectors. Nexant has been offering insight
and excellence globally for more than 50 years.
We are a world-class management consultancy; with presence in the DACH region, for large and ‚Mittelstand‘
companies. Our clients range from multinational oil and gas majors and chemicals companies to investors,
financial institutions, governments, development agencies and law firms.
Consulting, Market Inteligence, Technology Evaluation and Training
Global expertise for the energy, fuels, refining and chemicals sectors –
independent and authoritative
March 2019
Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory
Bespoke consulting services, training and customised reports to the energy & chemicals sectors globally
March 2019
Technical and Market
Training
Commercial and
Market Analysis
Technology Evaluation
and Management
Project Finance & Lenders Advisor
Merger and Acquisition
Transaction Support
Expert Witness and
Litigation Support
Technical and
Market Reports
Strategic Planning
Project Screening and
Feasibility Studies
2Nexant Germany Introduction
• Nexant was engaged as lenders independent technical consultant to review an expansion
programme for a European bioethanol producer, who was considering additional operations in
the Netherlands, GB and Germany.
• Nexant provided commercial due diligence services to support the acquisition of a German
‘Mittelstand’ specialty chemicals contract manufacturer.
• Nexant delivered commercial and technical due diligence to support the €12 billion sale of the
Akzo Nobel specialty chemicals business.
• Nexant provided technical and EHS due diligence services to an oil & gas sector major to evaluate
the acquisition of an privately owned storage terminal in Germany.
• Nexant was engaged to undertake a high level review of the Gunvor refinery at Ingolstadt in Bavaria,
covering technical performance, commercial and market issues to support a potential acquisition.
• Nexant provided technical and EHS due diligence services to an overseas investor to evaluate the
acquisition of refinery and storage assets in Europe owned by an international downstream operator.
Section 1 Nexant overview
Global knowledge and regional expertise
Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory has over 120 consultants, providing global knowledge and regional expertise
Our people
▪ Our consultants blend strategic,
commercial, operational and technical
expertise with deep energy and
chemicals sector knowledge
Proven track record
▪ For over 50 years we have been
enabling management teams,
investors and lenders in these
industries to make better decisions
Nexant customers recognize our:
▪ Accuracy of information
▪ Current market knowledge
▪ Technical insight
▪ Global coverage
▪ Independence
▪ Credibility with lenders and financial
institutions
March 2019 6Nexant Germany Introduction
San Francisco
Houston
London
Bahrain
Tokyo
Seoul
Kuala Lumpur
Bangkok
White Plains, N.Y.
Buenos Aires
La Paz
Rio de Janeiro
Washington, DC
Headquarters
Main Offices
Representative Offices
Project Offices
Pretoria
Pune
Beijing
Shanghai
Munich
Nexant GmbH was founded in 2013
Nexant is presence in Germany, near Munich, providing services to the DACH region
Strategic, commercial and technical consulting
Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory is a privately owned, independent, broad service offer consultancy
 Established in 1964 as “Chem
Systems”
 Nexant founded in 2000 as spinoff from
Bechtel
 Chem Systems acquired by Nexant in
2001
 Nexant GmbH founded in 2013
 Other Nexant divisions include Utility
services and Energy Software
 Nexant is privately owned by venture
capital firm TeleSoft Partners
 Nexant has over 500 employees
globally
Nexant corporate overview Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory
 Oil, gas & chemical companies
 Financial institutions & banks
 Investors & private equity
 Governments
 Law firms
 Completed thousands of client assignments
 Successful projects in over 100 countries
 150 expert consultants located worldwide
 Coverage in Asia, Americas & EMEA
Energy &
Chemicals
Advisory
 Business advisory services across the entire value chain
 Technical, strategic and market consulting services
 Market intelligence, profitability and technical reports
 Industry, market and technology insights training
Expertise
Nexant Introduction June 2018 7
Credibility
Clients
Expertise across the energy and chemicals value chains
Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory is an industry focused consultancy with a broad service offer to these sectors
March 2018
 Grid Management
 Distribution Software
 Energy Efficiency
 Demand Side
Management
 Renewables
• Solar
• Biomass
• Municipal Waste
• Wind
• Clean Coal
• Hydrogen
 Gas Monetization
 LNG
 Gas Pipelines
 Regulatory
Frameworks
 PSA Review
 Reliability
 Petroleum Refining
 Storage & Distribution
 Biofuels
 Oxygenates
 Coal to Liquids
 Gas to Liquids
 Base Oils
 Lubricants
 Ammonia
 Urea
 Melamine
 Ammonium Nitrates
 Phosphate & NPK
Fertilizers
 Methanol
 Formaldehyde
 Acetyls
 Other syngas
derivatives
POWER & RENEWABLES GAS & UPSTREAM
C1 CHEMICALS &
FERTILIZERS
DOWNSTREAM OIL
BASE PETROCHEMICALS
& POLYMERS
INTERMEDIATE &
SPECIALITY CHEMICALS
Energy Chemicals
 Olefins
 Aromatics
 Polyolefins
 Vinyls
 Styrenics
 Polyesters
 Polyamides
 Acrylates
 Rubbers
 Other olefin and
aromatic derivatives
 Surfactants
 Oleochemicals
 Engineering &
Speciality Polymers
 Coatings, Adhesives,
Sealants &
Elastomers (CASE)
 Polyurethanes
 Resins
 Biochemicals
 Speciality & Fine
Chemicals
8Nexant Germany Introduction
Infrastructure capabilities including bulk storage, terminals and pipelines
Section 2 Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory services
Providing confidence to industry & finance sector professionals
Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory delivers key insights to energy and chemical companies, investors and lenders
Consulting Services
Market & Technical
Reports
Training
Focus Area Services Provided
▪ Comprehensive analytics
▪ Forecasts and insights regarding markets, technology and economics
▪ Breadth of coverage across the energy and chemicals sectors
▪ World-class training courses
▪ Support career progression & executive development
▪ Provide insight into the energy chemicals sectors
▪ Independent analysis and insight to assist with strategic planning
▪ Technology evaluation, feasibility and market studies
▪ Business and asset reviews
▪ Transaction due diligence support for M&A and project financing
▪ Litigation support and expert witness
March 2019Nexant Germany Introduction 10
11Nexant Germany Introduction
Intelligence and insight through market and technical reports
Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory produces and publishes over 100 reports each year
Markets
and Profitability
Technology
and Costs
Detailed technology analyses and
process economics for existing, new
technologies.
▪ Business intelligence
▪ Competitive technology analysis
▪ Cost curve analysis
Market, profitability and pricing
analysis tracking 60 chemicals,
refined products and fertilizers with
forecasts to 2035.
▪ Market analytics
▪ Competitive insights
▪ Historic and forecast profitability
Special Reports
Special Reports address issues of
topical importance to the energy
and chemicals sectors.
▪ Renewables
▪ Plastics recycling
▪ Hydrogen energy
www.NexantSubscriptions.com is our Client Delivery Portal – providing access to subscription content,
individual reports purchases and Online Database access.
March 2019
Training for professionals inside and around the industry
Helping energy and chemicals industry professionals to develop depth of understanding and insight
www.training.nexant.com
Nexant Training overview
• Nexant has trained over ten thousand chemical industry professionals globally for over 30 years
• Highly acclaimed global chemical, agrochemical, petrochemical and refining industry courses
• Helping industry participants to understand the basic interactions between technology, economics and markets
• Widely recognized as the original and most comprehensive training courses in the chemical industry
Superior delivery
• Unique blend of broad picture and specific details
• Engaging style combining data, videos, samples, animations and discussion so that the products become tangible and the industry comes to life
• Courses offered in public settings or as in-house training that can be tailored specifically to participants needs
Depth of understanding
• Examine the value chains, from oil and gas to the basic building blocks and through to the intermediates, polymers and end-uses
• Understand the external environment – how the macroeconomic and the energy fundamentals affect the chemical industry
Career development
• New professionals and young graduates joining the industry, who can experience the course as an introduction to the chemical business
• Technical personnel moving into business, strategy & financial functions, such as marketing, planning, controlling and business leadership
Executive development
• Experienced professionals and executives who wish to broaden their industry knowledge and understand how the industry is connected
• Executives, corporate strategy professionals and business analysts getting involved in M&A transactions or dealing with external analysts
Industry insights
• Experienced professionals joining the industry from the financial sectors, consulting companies, legal firms and research institutions
• Finance industry professionals and investors working on project finance and M&A transactions in the energy & chemicals sectors
March 2019
12
Nexant Germany Introduction
Breadth of bespoke consulting services to support decision making
Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory is a broad-service consultancy - helping our clients make high quality decisions
March 2019
Differentiation
Strategic
Planning
Market &
Commercial
Analysis
M&A
Transaction
Support
Technology
Assessment
Independent
Legal Expert
▪ Corporate strategy development and business planning; master planning
▪ Strategy analysis – portfolio analysis, market segmentation, feasibility studies
▪ Strategic options and screening – innovation strategy, market entry, company
and product acquisition screening, corporate vision development, management
workshops
▪ Market assessment – including supply/demand projections, trade-flow
forecasts, price modelling, value chain analysis
▪ Competitor analysis, market research market participant interviews
▪ Financial modelling and valuations
▪ Corporate development – buy-side due diligence; vendor due diligence
▪ Private equity commercial and technical due diligence support
▪ Project finance – lenders’ independent market, technical and environmental
consultant roles
▪ Technology and operational benchmarking
▪ Cost of production modelling and benchmarking
▪ Technology evaluation and screening
▪ Expert advisor/witness
▪ Litigation support
▪ Deep industry
knowledge
▪ Able to identify
commercially viable
strategic options
▪ In-house database
with a proven
methodology
▪ Accepted by boards
and banks
▪ High-quality risk and
value focused
approach
▪ Deep market and
technical insight
▪ Engineers with deep
understanding of
chemicals process
technology
▪ Highly experienced
and credible
Nexant proposition
13Nexant Germany Introduction
Competitive advantage in merger & acquisition transactions
Project finance, buy-side and sell-side support - technical, EH&S and commercial due diligence
March 2019
Acquisition and
Post-Acquisition
Support
Initial Target
Screening
 Commercial and technical due diligence and evaluation for
seller, acquirer and/or lending banks
 Post merger integration support
 Commercial and product benchmarking and optimisation
 Raw materials, supply chain and procurement
 Portfolio development & restructuring - M&A
Vendor Sales
Support
Acquisition Support
Post M&A
Business Appraisal for
Financial/Industrial Buyers
Synergy Analysis for
Industrial Buyers
 In-depth industry analysis and company positioning
 Independent commercial appraisal and objective customer
feedback
 Synergy profit analysis to drive valuations higher
 Tailoring sales process to target key buyers
 Proactive deal origination and screening
 Reactive target appraisal
14Nexant Germany Introduction
Project finance and lenders advisor
Extensive experience advising lenders in major energy and chemical sector investments & refinancing
▪ Active as lenders advisor since 1977
▪ Highly qualified experts with extensive
experience advising on investments
▪ Credible advice on technical, market and
environmental issues in the energy and
chemicals sectors
▪ Familiar with project execution timelines
▪ Supporting sponsors at initiation of financing
through to monitoring project performance
during construction and operation
▪ Known and trusted by Export Credit
Agencies and Commercial Lenders
▪ Independent business, commercial and
technical review for lending banks &
refinancing
▪ Nexant has acted as advisor in over $100bn
worth of successfully financed engagements
15Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019
Independent expert witness and litigation support
Energy and chemicals sector: commercial, contractual, IP, competition and environmental cases
Intellectual
Property
Infringement
▪ Litigation and arbitration support in patent cases
▪ Patent valuation
▪ Extensive technology capabilities and experience to provide
expert reports and expert testimony
Environment
▪ Assess validity of claims for air, water or soil contamination by
various pollutants
Competition
▪ Independent assessment of price-fixing allegations based on
thorough knowledge of market dynamics and industry
pricing/profitability
▪ Independent advice to government authorities to assess M&A
competition issues
Contract
Disputes
▪ Contract, quantity, quality and pricing disputes
▪ Cargo contract disputes
▪ EPC contract claims for non-performance or delay
▪ Contract review from industry benchmarking perspective
▪ Trade and lender claims in bankruptcy proceedings
▪ Historical face and damage reviews as well as valuation aspects
of litigation support
▪ Economic damage assessments
Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019 16
Strategic consulting to create competitive advantage
Industry insight, technical expertise and market intelligence combine to deliver superior strategic advice
March 2019
Industry and Market Expertise
and Nexant Databases
Market Economics
Technology Financial
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.5 1
Supply
Demand
0
0
2010 2020 2030
Consider:
◼ Cost Position
◼ Technology
◼ Size
◼ Integration
◼ Differentiation
COST CURVE
Capacity
CashCost
Target ROCE
Date
Percent
ROCE
CFROA
Strategy Experience
and Methodology
Business Attractiveness
▪ Market growth and size
▪ Ability to differentiate
▪ Competitive pressures
▪ Customer pressures
▪ Entry barriers
▪ Threat of substitutes
Low High
PROFITABILITY (ROCE, %)
LowHigh
MARKETGROWTHRATE
SPECIAL
RESINS
COMPOUNDS
PP
HDPE AROMATICS
FILM
PIPE
OLEFINS
INVEST OR FIX REINVEST
FIX CASH
STRATEGIC
DEVELOPMENT
AND
PERFORMANCE
Strategic Position
17Nexant Germany Introduction
Section 3 Nexant commercial and technical due diligence methodology and approach
Commercial due diligence
Nexant has a proven methodology and the industry knowledge to provide deep market insight
How are the target’s
markets likely to evolve?
Where is the Target’s revenue and margin
generated?
 Evaluate revenue / margin contribution by
market segment, product and geography.
What is the outlook for the Target’s markets?
 Independent assessment of the growth trends
for the Target’s addressable markets:
− Identify the drivers of demand and provide a
Nexant view of future growth
− Identify and assess the main end-markets
driving product demand (coatings,
construction, automotive etc.)
− Assess the resilience / volatility of this market
to changes in the business cycle
 Identify alternative products in the market and
assess the risk of future substitution.
 Supply, demand and average operating rates.
Compare consumption trends against new
supply and the implication on future operating
rates.
How are prices and margins expected to
develop?
 Comment on historical and future pricing and
margin trends – how do prices move with
feedstock costs and how well-placed is the
target to implement price increases.
 Prepare proprietary pricing and margin models.
How competitive is the target?
What is the Target’s competitive position and is
this sustainable?
 Calibrate the Target’s competitive position, e.g.,
market share and profitability relative to its
peers.
 Identify the sources of competitive advantage
and how well-positioned the Target is versus its
competitors.
 Conclude on the evolution of the industry
structure
− Level of consolidation / fragmentation
− Comment on the competitive intensity of
existing players and how this is likely to
evolve
− Assess the threat of new entrants to this
market and entry barriers (technology,
formulation, end-market approval processes,
regional cost differentiation)
How cost competitive is the Target’s
production?
 Relative cost of production
− Backward integration to raw materials
− Plant scale
− Yield generated by technology
− Location cost factors (utilities, labour, capital
costs)
− Ownership of proprietary process technology
/ patents
How realistic is the vendor’s
financial model?
How realistic are management’s assumption
underpinning the financial projections?
 What are management's underlying
assumptions supporting revenue and margin
projections?
− Volume and price projections?
− Raw material cost expectations?
− New product / technology development?
 Provide Nexant’s view on the reasonableness of
the Target’s financial and / or operational
targets.
What are the main commercial terms of the
Target’s supply and offtake agreements?
 Review the competitiveness of offtake and
supply agreements and how they are reflected in
the business plan.
What other considerations are needed for the
transaction?
 What are the carve-out issues to consider?
 What are the areas of upside / downside to
management’s forecasts?
 What synergy benefits may be realised from the
acquisition?
 Assessment and scenarios of competitive
reaction to the transaction and impact on
customers.
March 2019Nexant Germany Introduction 19
Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019
Technical due diligence - led by experienced engineers
For over 40 years, Nexant has deployed a well-established methodology for technical DD to support acquisitions
Technical due diligence process
▪ Nexant will conduct interviews with the site management team and visual inspect the site, plants and equipment
▪ The work will be led by chemical engineers with relevant operational experience
20
Technical due diligence - past performance and future potential
Nexant will consider required cost outlays, maintenance, capex and project risks
Nexant Germany Introduction
In a business plan, technical assumptions are made by the target company. For
example: product portfolio, capacity expansions, production volumes and export
capabilities are the basis for the projected revenue streams
▪ Is the asset capable of producing the product mix suggested in the business plan?
▪ Is the asset capable of processing the feed slate suggested in the business plan?
▪ Does it have installed export capacity to cover future capacity expansions?
▪ Are the levels of projected capital investment and maintenance spend adequate?
A detailed operational assessment of the historical performance of the asset can help
support projected revenue or identify potential challenges
▪ Did the asset have stable operations? What were the underlying causes of disruption to
past output?
▪ How good is the product quality? Level of customer complaints?
▪ Are the projected production volumes aligned with the industry norms?
▪ How competitive is the installed process technology?
▪ State-of-the-art or obsolete?
▪ Is it a well-maintained asset?
▪ Is there potential for asset rationalisation or any operational improvements?
▪ Are there environmental, health and safety concerns with the current operations?
The normal operation of most chemical companies is intrinsically dependent on the
performance of third parties. Hence, it is important to assess these interfaces and
their role in facilitating capacity expansion, portfolio diversification and overall cost
competitiveness
▪ How reliant is the asset on third-party performance? Alternative suppliers or off-takers?
▪ Is the storage capacity adequate for the projected product volumes in the business plan?
▪ How robust is the logistics infrastructure?
March 2019
Technical due diligence
Validation of business plan
Asset competitiveness
Operational assessment
Third parties dependencies
Storage and logistics
21
Section 4 Experience and credentials
Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019
Selection of recent due diligence experience
Nexant provided commercial
due diligence services to
support a private equity
investor with the acquisition
of a European melamine
resins business
2017
Private equity client
(acquisition did not proceed)
Confidential target
[Target logo]
Nexant provided commercial
and technical due diligence
services to support a
strategic buyer’s evaluation
of Williams’ ethylene cracker
complex and related assets
2017
Confidential client
(acquisition did not proceed)
23
Commercial due diligence
services to support a
strategic investor’s proposed
acquisition of a fine
chemicals CMO
2017
Confidential client
(acquisition did not proceed)
Nexant undertook an
independent review of the
MMA and polycarbonate
markets to support
Charlesbank’s sale of
Plaskolite
2018 2017
Nexant acted as industry
market consultant to support
the $900m IPO of Lotte
Chemical
Nexant undertook an
independent review of the
BDO market to support
Ashland’s proposed
divestment of this business
2018
Nexant provided vendor
commercial due diligence
services to support Synergo
with the sale of Bozzetto
2017
Nexant provided vendor
commercial and technical
due diligence services to
support the €12bn sale of
AkzoNobel Specialty
Chemicals
2018
Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019
Selection of recent due diligence experience
24
[Target logo]
Nexant provided commercial
and technical due diligence
services to support Oman
Oil’s $2.4bn acquisition of
Oxea
2013
Nexant provided commercial
due diligence services to
support Cross Equity’s
acquisition of Buhler
Thermal Processes AG
2013
[Target logo]
Nexant provided commercial
due diligence services to
support an Asian strategic
investor evaluate Clariant’s
paper chemicals business
2012
Confidential client
(acquisition did not proceed)
2012
Nexant provided commercial
and operational due diligence
services to support a global
private equity investor
evaluate Perstorp
Confidential client
Nexant provided commercial
due diligence services to
support Bridgepoint Private
Equity acquire CABB
20112012
Nexant provided commercial
and technical due diligence
services to support Sun
Capital’s acquisition of
INEOS’s ABS business
based in Tarragona
Nexant acted as industry
market consultant to support
Bayer with the €1.5bn IPO of
Covestro
2015
Nexant provided commercial
due diligence services to
support a private equity
investor with the acquisition
of a global elastomers
producer
2015
Private equity client
(acquisition did not proceed)
Nexant Germany
Kranzlstraße 21
Geretsried OT Gelting
82538
Bayern
Deutschland
Stephen B. Harrison
Principal, Germany
T: +49 (0) 8171 24 64 954
M: +49 (0) 1721 710 720
sbharrison@nexant.com
www.nexant.com
© Nexant 2019
Nexant, Inc.
San Francisco
New York
Houston
Washington
London
Munich
Bahrain
Bangkok
Shanghai
Kuala Lumpur
Kranzlstraße 21
Geretsried OT Gelting
82538
Bayern
Deutschland
T: +49 (0) 8171 24 64 954
M: +49 (0) 1721 710 720
E. sbharrison@nexant.com
Energy & Chemicals Advisory
Stephen Harrison
Principal, Germany

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Leading Energy and Chemicals Consultancy in Germany

  • 2. The leading advisor in the energy and chemicals sectors. Nexant has been offering insight and excellence globally for more than 50 years. We are a world-class management consultancy; with presence in the DACH region, for large and ‚Mittelstand‘ companies. Our clients range from multinational oil and gas majors and chemicals companies to investors, financial institutions, governments, development agencies and law firms. Consulting, Market Inteligence, Technology Evaluation and Training Global expertise for the energy, fuels, refining and chemicals sectors – independent and authoritative March 2019
  • 3. Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory Bespoke consulting services, training and customised reports to the energy & chemicals sectors globally March 2019 Technical and Market Training Commercial and Market Analysis Technology Evaluation and Management Project Finance & Lenders Advisor Merger and Acquisition Transaction Support Expert Witness and Litigation Support Technical and Market Reports Strategic Planning Project Screening and Feasibility Studies 2Nexant Germany Introduction
  • 4. • Nexant was engaged as lenders independent technical consultant to review an expansion programme for a European bioethanol producer, who was considering additional operations in the Netherlands, GB and Germany. • Nexant provided commercial due diligence services to support the acquisition of a German ‘Mittelstand’ specialty chemicals contract manufacturer. • Nexant delivered commercial and technical due diligence to support the €12 billion sale of the Akzo Nobel specialty chemicals business.
  • 5. • Nexant provided technical and EHS due diligence services to an oil & gas sector major to evaluate the acquisition of an privately owned storage terminal in Germany. • Nexant was engaged to undertake a high level review of the Gunvor refinery at Ingolstadt in Bavaria, covering technical performance, commercial and market issues to support a potential acquisition. • Nexant provided technical and EHS due diligence services to an overseas investor to evaluate the acquisition of refinery and storage assets in Europe owned by an international downstream operator.
  • 6. Section 1 Nexant overview
  • 7. Global knowledge and regional expertise Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory has over 120 consultants, providing global knowledge and regional expertise Our people ▪ Our consultants blend strategic, commercial, operational and technical expertise with deep energy and chemicals sector knowledge Proven track record ▪ For over 50 years we have been enabling management teams, investors and lenders in these industries to make better decisions Nexant customers recognize our: ▪ Accuracy of information ▪ Current market knowledge ▪ Technical insight ▪ Global coverage ▪ Independence ▪ Credibility with lenders and financial institutions March 2019 6Nexant Germany Introduction San Francisco Houston London Bahrain Tokyo Seoul Kuala Lumpur Bangkok White Plains, N.Y. Buenos Aires La Paz Rio de Janeiro Washington, DC Headquarters Main Offices Representative Offices Project Offices Pretoria Pune Beijing Shanghai Munich Nexant GmbH was founded in 2013 Nexant is presence in Germany, near Munich, providing services to the DACH region
  • 8. Strategic, commercial and technical consulting Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory is a privately owned, independent, broad service offer consultancy  Established in 1964 as “Chem Systems”  Nexant founded in 2000 as spinoff from Bechtel  Chem Systems acquired by Nexant in 2001  Nexant GmbH founded in 2013  Other Nexant divisions include Utility services and Energy Software  Nexant is privately owned by venture capital firm TeleSoft Partners  Nexant has over 500 employees globally Nexant corporate overview Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory  Oil, gas & chemical companies  Financial institutions & banks  Investors & private equity  Governments  Law firms  Completed thousands of client assignments  Successful projects in over 100 countries  150 expert consultants located worldwide  Coverage in Asia, Americas & EMEA Energy & Chemicals Advisory  Business advisory services across the entire value chain  Technical, strategic and market consulting services  Market intelligence, profitability and technical reports  Industry, market and technology insights training Expertise Nexant Introduction June 2018 7 Credibility Clients
  • 9. Expertise across the energy and chemicals value chains Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory is an industry focused consultancy with a broad service offer to these sectors March 2018  Grid Management  Distribution Software  Energy Efficiency  Demand Side Management  Renewables • Solar • Biomass • Municipal Waste • Wind • Clean Coal • Hydrogen  Gas Monetization  LNG  Gas Pipelines  Regulatory Frameworks  PSA Review  Reliability  Petroleum Refining  Storage & Distribution  Biofuels  Oxygenates  Coal to Liquids  Gas to Liquids  Base Oils  Lubricants  Ammonia  Urea  Melamine  Ammonium Nitrates  Phosphate & NPK Fertilizers  Methanol  Formaldehyde  Acetyls  Other syngas derivatives POWER & RENEWABLES GAS & UPSTREAM C1 CHEMICALS & FERTILIZERS DOWNSTREAM OIL BASE PETROCHEMICALS & POLYMERS INTERMEDIATE & SPECIALITY CHEMICALS Energy Chemicals  Olefins  Aromatics  Polyolefins  Vinyls  Styrenics  Polyesters  Polyamides  Acrylates  Rubbers  Other olefin and aromatic derivatives  Surfactants  Oleochemicals  Engineering & Speciality Polymers  Coatings, Adhesives, Sealants & Elastomers (CASE)  Polyurethanes  Resins  Biochemicals  Speciality & Fine Chemicals 8Nexant Germany Introduction Infrastructure capabilities including bulk storage, terminals and pipelines
  • 10. Section 2 Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory services
  • 11. Providing confidence to industry & finance sector professionals Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory delivers key insights to energy and chemical companies, investors and lenders Consulting Services Market & Technical Reports Training Focus Area Services Provided ▪ Comprehensive analytics ▪ Forecasts and insights regarding markets, technology and economics ▪ Breadth of coverage across the energy and chemicals sectors ▪ World-class training courses ▪ Support career progression & executive development ▪ Provide insight into the energy chemicals sectors ▪ Independent analysis and insight to assist with strategic planning ▪ Technology evaluation, feasibility and market studies ▪ Business and asset reviews ▪ Transaction due diligence support for M&A and project financing ▪ Litigation support and expert witness March 2019Nexant Germany Introduction 10
  • 12. 11Nexant Germany Introduction Intelligence and insight through market and technical reports Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory produces and publishes over 100 reports each year Markets and Profitability Technology and Costs Detailed technology analyses and process economics for existing, new technologies. ▪ Business intelligence ▪ Competitive technology analysis ▪ Cost curve analysis Market, profitability and pricing analysis tracking 60 chemicals, refined products and fertilizers with forecasts to 2035. ▪ Market analytics ▪ Competitive insights ▪ Historic and forecast profitability Special Reports Special Reports address issues of topical importance to the energy and chemicals sectors. ▪ Renewables ▪ Plastics recycling ▪ Hydrogen energy www.NexantSubscriptions.com is our Client Delivery Portal – providing access to subscription content, individual reports purchases and Online Database access. March 2019
  • 13. Training for professionals inside and around the industry Helping energy and chemicals industry professionals to develop depth of understanding and insight www.training.nexant.com Nexant Training overview • Nexant has trained over ten thousand chemical industry professionals globally for over 30 years • Highly acclaimed global chemical, agrochemical, petrochemical and refining industry courses • Helping industry participants to understand the basic interactions between technology, economics and markets • Widely recognized as the original and most comprehensive training courses in the chemical industry Superior delivery • Unique blend of broad picture and specific details • Engaging style combining data, videos, samples, animations and discussion so that the products become tangible and the industry comes to life • Courses offered in public settings or as in-house training that can be tailored specifically to participants needs Depth of understanding • Examine the value chains, from oil and gas to the basic building blocks and through to the intermediates, polymers and end-uses • Understand the external environment – how the macroeconomic and the energy fundamentals affect the chemical industry Career development • New professionals and young graduates joining the industry, who can experience the course as an introduction to the chemical business • Technical personnel moving into business, strategy & financial functions, such as marketing, planning, controlling and business leadership Executive development • Experienced professionals and executives who wish to broaden their industry knowledge and understand how the industry is connected • Executives, corporate strategy professionals and business analysts getting involved in M&A transactions or dealing with external analysts Industry insights • Experienced professionals joining the industry from the financial sectors, consulting companies, legal firms and research institutions • Finance industry professionals and investors working on project finance and M&A transactions in the energy & chemicals sectors March 2019 12 Nexant Germany Introduction
  • 14. Breadth of bespoke consulting services to support decision making Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory is a broad-service consultancy - helping our clients make high quality decisions March 2019 Differentiation Strategic Planning Market & Commercial Analysis M&A Transaction Support Technology Assessment Independent Legal Expert ▪ Corporate strategy development and business planning; master planning ▪ Strategy analysis – portfolio analysis, market segmentation, feasibility studies ▪ Strategic options and screening – innovation strategy, market entry, company and product acquisition screening, corporate vision development, management workshops ▪ Market assessment – including supply/demand projections, trade-flow forecasts, price modelling, value chain analysis ▪ Competitor analysis, market research market participant interviews ▪ Financial modelling and valuations ▪ Corporate development – buy-side due diligence; vendor due diligence ▪ Private equity commercial and technical due diligence support ▪ Project finance – lenders’ independent market, technical and environmental consultant roles ▪ Technology and operational benchmarking ▪ Cost of production modelling and benchmarking ▪ Technology evaluation and screening ▪ Expert advisor/witness ▪ Litigation support ▪ Deep industry knowledge ▪ Able to identify commercially viable strategic options ▪ In-house database with a proven methodology ▪ Accepted by boards and banks ▪ High-quality risk and value focused approach ▪ Deep market and technical insight ▪ Engineers with deep understanding of chemicals process technology ▪ Highly experienced and credible Nexant proposition 13Nexant Germany Introduction
  • 15. Competitive advantage in merger & acquisition transactions Project finance, buy-side and sell-side support - technical, EH&S and commercial due diligence March 2019 Acquisition and Post-Acquisition Support Initial Target Screening  Commercial and technical due diligence and evaluation for seller, acquirer and/or lending banks  Post merger integration support  Commercial and product benchmarking and optimisation  Raw materials, supply chain and procurement  Portfolio development & restructuring - M&A Vendor Sales Support Acquisition Support Post M&A Business Appraisal for Financial/Industrial Buyers Synergy Analysis for Industrial Buyers  In-depth industry analysis and company positioning  Independent commercial appraisal and objective customer feedback  Synergy profit analysis to drive valuations higher  Tailoring sales process to target key buyers  Proactive deal origination and screening  Reactive target appraisal 14Nexant Germany Introduction
  • 16. Project finance and lenders advisor Extensive experience advising lenders in major energy and chemical sector investments & refinancing ▪ Active as lenders advisor since 1977 ▪ Highly qualified experts with extensive experience advising on investments ▪ Credible advice on technical, market and environmental issues in the energy and chemicals sectors ▪ Familiar with project execution timelines ▪ Supporting sponsors at initiation of financing through to monitoring project performance during construction and operation ▪ Known and trusted by Export Credit Agencies and Commercial Lenders ▪ Independent business, commercial and technical review for lending banks & refinancing ▪ Nexant has acted as advisor in over $100bn worth of successfully financed engagements 15Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019
  • 17. Independent expert witness and litigation support Energy and chemicals sector: commercial, contractual, IP, competition and environmental cases Intellectual Property Infringement ▪ Litigation and arbitration support in patent cases ▪ Patent valuation ▪ Extensive technology capabilities and experience to provide expert reports and expert testimony Environment ▪ Assess validity of claims for air, water or soil contamination by various pollutants Competition ▪ Independent assessment of price-fixing allegations based on thorough knowledge of market dynamics and industry pricing/profitability ▪ Independent advice to government authorities to assess M&A competition issues Contract Disputes ▪ Contract, quantity, quality and pricing disputes ▪ Cargo contract disputes ▪ EPC contract claims for non-performance or delay ▪ Contract review from industry benchmarking perspective ▪ Trade and lender claims in bankruptcy proceedings ▪ Historical face and damage reviews as well as valuation aspects of litigation support ▪ Economic damage assessments Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019 16
  • 18. Strategic consulting to create competitive advantage Industry insight, technical expertise and market intelligence combine to deliver superior strategic advice March 2019 Industry and Market Expertise and Nexant Databases Market Economics Technology Financial 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.5 1 Supply Demand 0 0 2010 2020 2030 Consider: ◼ Cost Position ◼ Technology ◼ Size ◼ Integration ◼ Differentiation COST CURVE Capacity CashCost Target ROCE Date Percent ROCE CFROA Strategy Experience and Methodology Business Attractiveness ▪ Market growth and size ▪ Ability to differentiate ▪ Competitive pressures ▪ Customer pressures ▪ Entry barriers ▪ Threat of substitutes Low High PROFITABILITY (ROCE, %) LowHigh MARKETGROWTHRATE SPECIAL RESINS COMPOUNDS PP HDPE AROMATICS FILM PIPE OLEFINS INVEST OR FIX REINVEST FIX CASH STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AND PERFORMANCE Strategic Position 17Nexant Germany Introduction
  • 19. Section 3 Nexant commercial and technical due diligence methodology and approach
  • 20. Commercial due diligence Nexant has a proven methodology and the industry knowledge to provide deep market insight How are the target’s markets likely to evolve? Where is the Target’s revenue and margin generated?  Evaluate revenue / margin contribution by market segment, product and geography. What is the outlook for the Target’s markets?  Independent assessment of the growth trends for the Target’s addressable markets: − Identify the drivers of demand and provide a Nexant view of future growth − Identify and assess the main end-markets driving product demand (coatings, construction, automotive etc.) − Assess the resilience / volatility of this market to changes in the business cycle  Identify alternative products in the market and assess the risk of future substitution.  Supply, demand and average operating rates. Compare consumption trends against new supply and the implication on future operating rates. How are prices and margins expected to develop?  Comment on historical and future pricing and margin trends – how do prices move with feedstock costs and how well-placed is the target to implement price increases.  Prepare proprietary pricing and margin models. How competitive is the target? What is the Target’s competitive position and is this sustainable?  Calibrate the Target’s competitive position, e.g., market share and profitability relative to its peers.  Identify the sources of competitive advantage and how well-positioned the Target is versus its competitors.  Conclude on the evolution of the industry structure − Level of consolidation / fragmentation − Comment on the competitive intensity of existing players and how this is likely to evolve − Assess the threat of new entrants to this market and entry barriers (technology, formulation, end-market approval processes, regional cost differentiation) How cost competitive is the Target’s production?  Relative cost of production − Backward integration to raw materials − Plant scale − Yield generated by technology − Location cost factors (utilities, labour, capital costs) − Ownership of proprietary process technology / patents How realistic is the vendor’s financial model? How realistic are management’s assumption underpinning the financial projections?  What are management's underlying assumptions supporting revenue and margin projections? − Volume and price projections? − Raw material cost expectations? − New product / technology development?  Provide Nexant’s view on the reasonableness of the Target’s financial and / or operational targets. What are the main commercial terms of the Target’s supply and offtake agreements?  Review the competitiveness of offtake and supply agreements and how they are reflected in the business plan. What other considerations are needed for the transaction?  What are the carve-out issues to consider?  What are the areas of upside / downside to management’s forecasts?  What synergy benefits may be realised from the acquisition?  Assessment and scenarios of competitive reaction to the transaction and impact on customers. March 2019Nexant Germany Introduction 19
  • 21. Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019 Technical due diligence - led by experienced engineers For over 40 years, Nexant has deployed a well-established methodology for technical DD to support acquisitions Technical due diligence process ▪ Nexant will conduct interviews with the site management team and visual inspect the site, plants and equipment ▪ The work will be led by chemical engineers with relevant operational experience 20
  • 22. Technical due diligence - past performance and future potential Nexant will consider required cost outlays, maintenance, capex and project risks Nexant Germany Introduction In a business plan, technical assumptions are made by the target company. For example: product portfolio, capacity expansions, production volumes and export capabilities are the basis for the projected revenue streams ▪ Is the asset capable of producing the product mix suggested in the business plan? ▪ Is the asset capable of processing the feed slate suggested in the business plan? ▪ Does it have installed export capacity to cover future capacity expansions? ▪ Are the levels of projected capital investment and maintenance spend adequate? A detailed operational assessment of the historical performance of the asset can help support projected revenue or identify potential challenges ▪ Did the asset have stable operations? What were the underlying causes of disruption to past output? ▪ How good is the product quality? Level of customer complaints? ▪ Are the projected production volumes aligned with the industry norms? ▪ How competitive is the installed process technology? ▪ State-of-the-art or obsolete? ▪ Is it a well-maintained asset? ▪ Is there potential for asset rationalisation or any operational improvements? ▪ Are there environmental, health and safety concerns with the current operations? The normal operation of most chemical companies is intrinsically dependent on the performance of third parties. Hence, it is important to assess these interfaces and their role in facilitating capacity expansion, portfolio diversification and overall cost competitiveness ▪ How reliant is the asset on third-party performance? Alternative suppliers or off-takers? ▪ Is the storage capacity adequate for the projected product volumes in the business plan? ▪ How robust is the logistics infrastructure? March 2019 Technical due diligence Validation of business plan Asset competitiveness Operational assessment Third parties dependencies Storage and logistics 21
  • 23. Section 4 Experience and credentials
  • 24. Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019 Selection of recent due diligence experience Nexant provided commercial due diligence services to support a private equity investor with the acquisition of a European melamine resins business 2017 Private equity client (acquisition did not proceed) Confidential target [Target logo] Nexant provided commercial and technical due diligence services to support a strategic buyer’s evaluation of Williams’ ethylene cracker complex and related assets 2017 Confidential client (acquisition did not proceed) 23 Commercial due diligence services to support a strategic investor’s proposed acquisition of a fine chemicals CMO 2017 Confidential client (acquisition did not proceed) Nexant undertook an independent review of the MMA and polycarbonate markets to support Charlesbank’s sale of Plaskolite 2018 2017 Nexant acted as industry market consultant to support the $900m IPO of Lotte Chemical Nexant undertook an independent review of the BDO market to support Ashland’s proposed divestment of this business 2018 Nexant provided vendor commercial due diligence services to support Synergo with the sale of Bozzetto 2017 Nexant provided vendor commercial and technical due diligence services to support the €12bn sale of AkzoNobel Specialty Chemicals 2018
  • 25. Nexant Germany Introduction March 2019 Selection of recent due diligence experience 24 [Target logo] Nexant provided commercial and technical due diligence services to support Oman Oil’s $2.4bn acquisition of Oxea 2013 Nexant provided commercial due diligence services to support Cross Equity’s acquisition of Buhler Thermal Processes AG 2013 [Target logo] Nexant provided commercial due diligence services to support an Asian strategic investor evaluate Clariant’s paper chemicals business 2012 Confidential client (acquisition did not proceed) 2012 Nexant provided commercial and operational due diligence services to support a global private equity investor evaluate Perstorp Confidential client Nexant provided commercial due diligence services to support Bridgepoint Private Equity acquire CABB 20112012 Nexant provided commercial and technical due diligence services to support Sun Capital’s acquisition of INEOS’s ABS business based in Tarragona Nexant acted as industry market consultant to support Bayer with the €1.5bn IPO of Covestro 2015 Nexant provided commercial due diligence services to support a private equity investor with the acquisition of a global elastomers producer 2015 Private equity client (acquisition did not proceed)
  • 26. Nexant Germany Kranzlstraße 21 Geretsried OT Gelting 82538 Bayern Deutschland Stephen B. Harrison Principal, Germany T: +49 (0) 8171 24 64 954 M: +49 (0) 1721 710 720 sbharrison@nexant.com www.nexant.com © Nexant 2019 Nexant, Inc. San Francisco New York Houston Washington London Munich Bahrain Bangkok Shanghai Kuala Lumpur Kranzlstraße 21 Geretsried OT Gelting 82538 Bayern Deutschland T: +49 (0) 8171 24 64 954 M: +49 (0) 1721 710 720 E. sbharrison@nexant.com Energy & Chemicals Advisory Stephen Harrison Principal, Germany