This document is a newsletter from Q3 2013 that includes the following articles:
- An introduction that looks back at the market recovery since the Great Recession and lessons for investors who stayed invested versus those who withdrew during the downturn.
- An announcement for a holiday party in December 2013.
- An article discussing how dire predictions often don't come true and investors should focus on positive economic factors.
- A piece about managing retirement accounts held outside of the main brokerage to get a full view of clients' finances.
- A section touting the strong economy and job growth in Houston, Texas.
- A brief discussion on whether it's a good time to start investing now rather
This document summarizes a quarterly newsletter from Northland Wealth Management. It discusses recent awards and recognition received by Northland Wealth and its CEO. It then discusses a family that dealt with the loss of their son by creating art calendars featuring his artwork to raise funds for charities. Other topics covered include the impact of lower oil prices, a new approach to low volatility investing, and positive signs for the US economy. The newsletter provides updates on financial markets and wealth management strategies to its clients.
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timessatya saurabh khosla
The author's article that appeared in Business Times, Singapore on Oct 4, 2007 stated that USA Housing, low interest rates and derivatives will lead the global economy into a recession
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Nicola Arnold
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides perspectives on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. It notes that central bank actions have inflated asset prices temporarily but that the large US national debt poses long-term sustainability issues. For Japan, it expects more stimulus measures to weaken the Yen further. The outlook is mostly negative given continued risks from high debt levels and prospects for currency depreciation from monetary easing.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The henley group's market outlook may 13Gary Lansdown
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, commodities, and alternative investments. For equities, it provides views on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. Key points discussed include the weakening Japanese yen, volatility in Japanese government bonds, mixed signals in the US and European economies, and recovering housing markets in the US and UK. Overall it maintains a mostly negative outlook due to ongoing debt and economic challenges while also highlighting some positive signs in selected areas.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
Northland Wealth Management is proud to have won for the 2nd consecutive year Advisor of the Year (Alternative Investments) at the Wealth Professional Canada Awards; the leading awards event for the Canadian wealth management industry.
It is Northland Wealth’s ability to access ‘best in class’ alternative asset managers from around the word which can help to protect and grow each family’s wealth over generations to come. Our extensive and proprietary network is unmatched by the Canadian banks, investment dealers and advisors.
As we celebrate our 8th Anniversary we welcome you to this edition ofThe Artisan. Our lead story “Revisiting the Value of Value” was published in the Financial Post Magazine this past autumn. We then delve into the sometimes complex subject of financial planning “It’s Not Just About the Math”. While the phrase“May You Live in Interesting Times” is sometimes construed as a curse, in this situation we highlight Northland’s efforts and approach into understanding the global risks or potential ‘black swan’ events to better protect each family’s wealth. We hope that you enjoy these insights along with our Quarterly Market Commentary and more.
The document discusses the recent underperformance of gold mining stocks relative to gold prices, as represented by declines in the HUI Index. It analyzes technical indicators that suggest gold stocks may continue to decline in the medium term, potentially retesting support levels from 2015-2016. It also notes threats to continued economic growth like inflation, debt levels, and financial market instability that could support further gains in gold prices.
This document summarizes a quarterly newsletter from Northland Wealth Management. It discusses recent awards and recognition received by Northland Wealth and its CEO. It then discusses a family that dealt with the loss of their son by creating art calendars featuring his artwork to raise funds for charities. Other topics covered include the impact of lower oil prices, a new approach to low volatility investing, and positive signs for the US economy. The newsletter provides updates on financial markets and wealth management strategies to its clients.
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timessatya saurabh khosla
The author's article that appeared in Business Times, Singapore on Oct 4, 2007 stated that USA Housing, low interest rates and derivatives will lead the global economy into a recession
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Nicola Arnold
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides perspectives on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. It notes that central bank actions have inflated asset prices temporarily but that the large US national debt poses long-term sustainability issues. For Japan, it expects more stimulus measures to weaken the Yen further. The outlook is mostly negative given continued risks from high debt levels and prospects for currency depreciation from monetary easing.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The henley group's market outlook may 13Gary Lansdown
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, commodities, and alternative investments. For equities, it provides views on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. Key points discussed include the weakening Japanese yen, volatility in Japanese government bonds, mixed signals in the US and European economies, and recovering housing markets in the US and UK. Overall it maintains a mostly negative outlook due to ongoing debt and economic challenges while also highlighting some positive signs in selected areas.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
Northland Wealth Management is proud to have won for the 2nd consecutive year Advisor of the Year (Alternative Investments) at the Wealth Professional Canada Awards; the leading awards event for the Canadian wealth management industry.
It is Northland Wealth’s ability to access ‘best in class’ alternative asset managers from around the word which can help to protect and grow each family’s wealth over generations to come. Our extensive and proprietary network is unmatched by the Canadian banks, investment dealers and advisors.
As we celebrate our 8th Anniversary we welcome you to this edition ofThe Artisan. Our lead story “Revisiting the Value of Value” was published in the Financial Post Magazine this past autumn. We then delve into the sometimes complex subject of financial planning “It’s Not Just About the Math”. While the phrase“May You Live in Interesting Times” is sometimes construed as a curse, in this situation we highlight Northland’s efforts and approach into understanding the global risks or potential ‘black swan’ events to better protect each family’s wealth. We hope that you enjoy these insights along with our Quarterly Market Commentary and more.
The document discusses the recent underperformance of gold mining stocks relative to gold prices, as represented by declines in the HUI Index. It analyzes technical indicators that suggest gold stocks may continue to decline in the medium term, potentially retesting support levels from 2015-2016. It also notes threats to continued economic growth like inflation, debt levels, and financial market instability that could support further gains in gold prices.
With investor sentiment now showing signs of improvement after a challenging period in emerging markets, our sixth edition of the CSRI Emerging Consumer Survey provides investors timely insights with which to revisit the theme of a fast developing consumer culture shaped by technological innovation. The countries that top our ECS Scorecard are India, China and Saudi Arabia with a key demographic accent on the role of the youthful consumer.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1YnhtyR
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1RQb79r
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
General Stanley McChrystal was fired by President Obama after unflattering comments he made about administration officials were published in Rolling Stone magazine. The article was able to be published because the freelance journalist who wrote it, Michael Hastings, was not constrained by concerns about burning bridges, unlike beat reporters who rely on ongoing access. This highlights how outsiders can sometimes uncover important stories that insiders miss due to fears of jeopardizing relationships and access.
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Agcapita February 2011 Update - Two ways to be fooledPetrocapita
As Kierkegaard elegantly pointed out, "There are two ways to be fooled: One is to believe what isn't so; the other is to refuse to believe what is so." The problem of being fooled "by believing what isn't so" appears to be endemic in mainstream economic circles. Increasingly, we see the panic of central bankers and politicians in the thrall of the mistaken belief that the mere act of printing money can conjure wealth and sustainable growth into existence that this nostrum has stopped working. Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with over $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios.
Global Financial Private Capital is an investment advisory firm located in Sarasota, Florida. They provide investment advisory services for fees and also securities through affiliated companies. The document discusses their analysis of the current US economic environment. It identifies several headwinds, such as healthcare costs and the upcoming elections, but argues that tailwinds like consumer spending and US energy independence will promote continued economic growth overall. While no economy is perfect, the firm believes the tailwinds currently outweigh the headwinds and that growth will remain steady without signs of overheating.
This document summarizes the key findings of the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2015. It finds that while underlying growth in household wealth was positive globally, gains were offset by declines in currency values against the US dollar, resulting in an overall decline of $12.4 trillion in global wealth. The United States and China saw substantial wealth increases, while Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America experienced declines. Financial assets grew as a percentage of total household wealth globally.
Through all the market traumas of recent years, the crises in Greece, slowdown scares in China, US political gridlock, the collapse in oil prices, the wars and the migrant flows, investors prepared to weather short-term volatility have seen handsome returns on developed-economy equities since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, with EUR and USD investors seeing only one modestly down year in 2011. There has also been good performance from high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, the laggards (since 2011) being investments connected to commodities and emerging markets.
Our analysis, set out in this Outlook, suggests that 2016 may deliver a fairly similar pattern. Temporary traumas could emanate from Federal Reserve tightening, reduced bond liquidity, renewed growth scares in China or geopolitics, but behind these is an underlying picture of ongoing expansion. The global economy is neither pushed up against capacity limits nor facing severe slack (except for commodities and energy), banking systems are healthy and debt levels seem more amber than red. Rapid growth seems unlikely, given aging populations (bar Africa and India) and sharing economy technologies that do not generate much Gross Domestic Product, but sensibly-priced assets do not need a booming economy to generate reasonable returns. At the time of writing (in late 2015), high yield and investment grade credits have spreads just above their quarter-century averages, giving them scope to weather gradual Fed tightening. Developed equities have valuations somewhat above historic norms on a price-earnings basis, but not on a price-book basis, and operational leverage (especially in the Eurozone) and consolidating oil prices should allow earnings growth to move from last year's negatives into the mid- to high-single digits. In short, we think developed equities and credits are well placed for another year of reasonable returns, with the dollar likely to be strong again as the Fed leads the monetary cycle. As for emerging markets, and the commodities on which many depend, a convincing general recovery looks some time away, but there is scope for some to move ahead of the pack, as discussed in a special article.
Of course there can always be risks that are not visible and Fed tightening has a habit of teasing these out, although usually not within its first year. But, equally, there could be upside surprises, if the USA finally moves toward solutions on taxing repatriated corporate cash and infrastructure spending or, more simply, the signals of rising confidence already visible in US and European consumer surveys translate into faster spending. We trust our readers will find the Investment Outlook 2016 to be of considerable interest for the coming year.
The document discusses recent market trends and the relationship between two opposing forces - the "Bubble Chain" and the "Deleveraging Chain".
The Bubble Chain refers to rising asset prices driven by central bank liquidity, moving from government bonds to corporate credit to equities. However, a Deleveraging Chain is also occurring, shown through weakness in commodities, emerging markets, and gold. These two chains send inconsistent signals about the economy.
The document argues one chain will have to give way at some point, allowing for a realignment. It also analyzes gold's recent sharp decline, putting forward several hypotheses for what triggered it and what implications it could have. The author remains uncertain about which
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilationMichael Durante
- The document is a letter from Western Reserve Capital Management providing a review of 2009 and outlook for 2010. It discusses the opportunities that arose from the financial crisis and delays in addressing issues like mark-to-market accounting.
- It argues that mark-to-market accounting exaggerated fear and uncertainty during the crisis in ways that were not reflective of the underlying cash flows and credit performance of financial institutions. This created a historic buying opportunity for fundamentally-driven investors.
- Large US banks have recovered strongly but remain undervalued relative to their fundamentals and adjusted book values, presenting continued opportunities according to the analysis.
Managing Expectations: Anticipate Before You Participate in the MarketU.S. Global Investors
Here at U.S. Global Investors, we strive to serve our clients to the best of our abilities by detecting and accounting for
trends and patterns not just in the market but also the world at large. That includes everything from changes in monetary and fiscal policy, both domestic and foreign; the weather; lifecycles of mines; and advances in technology .
The document discusses different types of computer memory modules including 30 Pin SIMM, 72 Pin SIMM, 168 Pin DIMM, DDR1 Modules, and the differences between DDR1 and DDR2. It explains that SDR RAM is also called SDR SDRAM and DDR RAM is called DDR SDRAM. The main difference is speed, with DDR transferring data at about twice the speed of SDR. It also provides details on SDR SDRAM flavors like PC66, PC100, PC133 and DDR SDRAM flavors like PC2100 and PC3200.
Financial Synergies Q2 2015 Newsletter discusses many aspects of the current market conditions and our Financial Times recognition as one of the top 300 RIAs in the nation.
With investor sentiment now showing signs of improvement after a challenging period in emerging markets, our sixth edition of the CSRI Emerging Consumer Survey provides investors timely insights with which to revisit the theme of a fast developing consumer culture shaped by technological innovation. The countries that top our ECS Scorecard are India, China and Saudi Arabia with a key demographic accent on the role of the youthful consumer.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1YnhtyR
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1RQb79r
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
General Stanley McChrystal was fired by President Obama after unflattering comments he made about administration officials were published in Rolling Stone magazine. The article was able to be published because the freelance journalist who wrote it, Michael Hastings, was not constrained by concerns about burning bridges, unlike beat reporters who rely on ongoing access. This highlights how outsiders can sometimes uncover important stories that insiders miss due to fears of jeopardizing relationships and access.
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Agcapita February 2011 Update - Two ways to be fooledPetrocapita
As Kierkegaard elegantly pointed out, "There are two ways to be fooled: One is to believe what isn't so; the other is to refuse to believe what is so." The problem of being fooled "by believing what isn't so" appears to be endemic in mainstream economic circles. Increasingly, we see the panic of central bankers and politicians in the thrall of the mistaken belief that the mere act of printing money can conjure wealth and sustainable growth into existence that this nostrum has stopped working. Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with over $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios.
Global Financial Private Capital is an investment advisory firm located in Sarasota, Florida. They provide investment advisory services for fees and also securities through affiliated companies. The document discusses their analysis of the current US economic environment. It identifies several headwinds, such as healthcare costs and the upcoming elections, but argues that tailwinds like consumer spending and US energy independence will promote continued economic growth overall. While no economy is perfect, the firm believes the tailwinds currently outweigh the headwinds and that growth will remain steady without signs of overheating.
This document summarizes the key findings of the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2015. It finds that while underlying growth in household wealth was positive globally, gains were offset by declines in currency values against the US dollar, resulting in an overall decline of $12.4 trillion in global wealth. The United States and China saw substantial wealth increases, while Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America experienced declines. Financial assets grew as a percentage of total household wealth globally.
Through all the market traumas of recent years, the crises in Greece, slowdown scares in China, US political gridlock, the collapse in oil prices, the wars and the migrant flows, investors prepared to weather short-term volatility have seen handsome returns on developed-economy equities since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, with EUR and USD investors seeing only one modestly down year in 2011. There has also been good performance from high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, the laggards (since 2011) being investments connected to commodities and emerging markets.
Our analysis, set out in this Outlook, suggests that 2016 may deliver a fairly similar pattern. Temporary traumas could emanate from Federal Reserve tightening, reduced bond liquidity, renewed growth scares in China or geopolitics, but behind these is an underlying picture of ongoing expansion. The global economy is neither pushed up against capacity limits nor facing severe slack (except for commodities and energy), banking systems are healthy and debt levels seem more amber than red. Rapid growth seems unlikely, given aging populations (bar Africa and India) and sharing economy technologies that do not generate much Gross Domestic Product, but sensibly-priced assets do not need a booming economy to generate reasonable returns. At the time of writing (in late 2015), high yield and investment grade credits have spreads just above their quarter-century averages, giving them scope to weather gradual Fed tightening. Developed equities have valuations somewhat above historic norms on a price-earnings basis, but not on a price-book basis, and operational leverage (especially in the Eurozone) and consolidating oil prices should allow earnings growth to move from last year's negatives into the mid- to high-single digits. In short, we think developed equities and credits are well placed for another year of reasonable returns, with the dollar likely to be strong again as the Fed leads the monetary cycle. As for emerging markets, and the commodities on which many depend, a convincing general recovery looks some time away, but there is scope for some to move ahead of the pack, as discussed in a special article.
Of course there can always be risks that are not visible and Fed tightening has a habit of teasing these out, although usually not within its first year. But, equally, there could be upside surprises, if the USA finally moves toward solutions on taxing repatriated corporate cash and infrastructure spending or, more simply, the signals of rising confidence already visible in US and European consumer surveys translate into faster spending. We trust our readers will find the Investment Outlook 2016 to be of considerable interest for the coming year.
The document discusses recent market trends and the relationship between two opposing forces - the "Bubble Chain" and the "Deleveraging Chain".
The Bubble Chain refers to rising asset prices driven by central bank liquidity, moving from government bonds to corporate credit to equities. However, a Deleveraging Chain is also occurring, shown through weakness in commodities, emerging markets, and gold. These two chains send inconsistent signals about the economy.
The document argues one chain will have to give way at some point, allowing for a realignment. It also analyzes gold's recent sharp decline, putting forward several hypotheses for what triggered it and what implications it could have. The author remains uncertain about which
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilationMichael Durante
- The document is a letter from Western Reserve Capital Management providing a review of 2009 and outlook for 2010. It discusses the opportunities that arose from the financial crisis and delays in addressing issues like mark-to-market accounting.
- It argues that mark-to-market accounting exaggerated fear and uncertainty during the crisis in ways that were not reflective of the underlying cash flows and credit performance of financial institutions. This created a historic buying opportunity for fundamentally-driven investors.
- Large US banks have recovered strongly but remain undervalued relative to their fundamentals and adjusted book values, presenting continued opportunities according to the analysis.
Managing Expectations: Anticipate Before You Participate in the MarketU.S. Global Investors
Here at U.S. Global Investors, we strive to serve our clients to the best of our abilities by detecting and accounting for
trends and patterns not just in the market but also the world at large. That includes everything from changes in monetary and fiscal policy, both domestic and foreign; the weather; lifecycles of mines; and advances in technology .
The document discusses different types of computer memory modules including 30 Pin SIMM, 72 Pin SIMM, 168 Pin DIMM, DDR1 Modules, and the differences between DDR1 and DDR2. It explains that SDR RAM is also called SDR SDRAM and DDR RAM is called DDR SDRAM. The main difference is speed, with DDR transferring data at about twice the speed of SDR. It also provides details on SDR SDRAM flavors like PC66, PC100, PC133 and DDR SDRAM flavors like PC2100 and PC3200.
Financial Synergies Q2 2015 Newsletter discusses many aspects of the current market conditions and our Financial Times recognition as one of the top 300 RIAs in the nation.
The document describes a personal experience where the author's 4-month-old daughter Caitlin developed a fever. In a panic, the author and his wife took Caitlin to the emergency room. The ER doctor recognized they were panicked new parents and calmed them down, explaining that fevers are common in children and not always serious. The parents were embarrassed to learn Caitlin's fever was actually low-grade. They realized they overreacted and caused unnecessary stress. The author says this taught them not to panic over temporary situations and that downturns in the stock market, like fevers, are normal and temporary.
The document discusses maintaining a long-term perspective during periods of market volatility. It argues that trying to time the market is difficult and investors are better off remaining invested through downturns. While volatility can be unsettling, markets have historically delivered returns over long periods. The document advocates for diversification, rebalancing, and having patience as the best strategies for long-term investors.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of
stock and bond asset classes in the US and
international markets.
The report also illustrates the performance of globally diversified portfolios.
The document provides a summary of global market performance in the third quarter of 2015. Major stock markets experienced negative returns, with emerging markets faring the worst. REITs in the US performed strongly. Commodity prices broadly declined, led by falls in oil and other energy products. The report also includes performance data on asset classes and geographic markets over various time periods.
The recent American election continues to have the world on edge. Seemingly every media outlet and investment manager around the world continues to hammer away at the bad or good that will be created by the actions of the new President.
This is a mistake.
While the entire world continues to be focused on President Trump and American Politics, it has become completely distracted as to what is happening in Europe.
Europe remains a pile of timber and in this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we describe how dramatic swings in politics and interest rates will be the spark that reignites the crisis in the old world.
Eliminate worry and anxiety over market volatility by eliminating market risk. Grows tax-free, loans are tax-free and need not be repaid; distributions before or after retirement are tax-free and do not count toward social security threshold income.
How to set up a retirement plan alternative which eliminates market risk, has potential to earn up to 15% tax-free, provides for tax-free loans which need not be repaid and allows tax-free distributions at any age. It removes worry and anxiety caused by market volatility by locking in the annual high-water cash value. It's imaginative, innovative and outside-the-box and it's approved by IRS rule 7702
How to eliminate market risk with the potential to earn up to 15% per year tax-free, have the option to borrow tax-free with no need to repay the loan and take monies out tax-free before or after retirement.
Master Investor Magazine February 2016 - What NowMaria Psarra
This document is a February 2016 issue of the Master Investor magazine. It includes articles on various investment topics such as commodities, oil, shale, lithium, currencies, and junior mining stocks. One article interviews Justin Urquhart Stewart of Seven Investment Management to get his views on the recent market downturn. Another article profiles trader Robbie Burns and what stocks he has been buying in the sell-off. The issue also includes the regular sections on trading diaries, opportunities, economics, and company profiles.
She adores hats. She is always very polite and respectful of others. She waves to everyone, and consistently avoids conflict. She is a lady; she is The Queen.
Without a doubt, Queen Elizabeth lives a life quite unlike everyone else in the World – after all, royalty does have its privileges. Yet, when it comes to investing, the Queen is swimming in the same pool of stock market sharks as us common people.
Like everyone else, she pours through her quarterly statements to see how she’s fared. And like everyone else, she loves to make money and simply deplores negative returns. It was rumored that the 2008 crisis hit her particularly hard – over USD 40 million in stock market losses.
This experience must have jilted something, as when The Queen was visiting the esteemed London School of Economics she asked the professor a rather “un-queen” like question – why did economists fail to predict the biggest global recession since the Great Depression?
Years ago, the seeds were sown.
Governments began an untenable trend of consistently spending more money than they collected in taxes. The difference of course, was made up by borrowing. As the years and deficits rolled along, so too did the amount of money owing. Governments responded by borrowing even more.
Meanwhile, global economies inevitably experienced varying crises. Governments and central banks always responded the same way - even more spending (and borrowing), and lower interest rates to stimulate growth.
Today, we've reached a dead-end.
Governments continue to borrow, but only because interest rates have been reduced to 0% AND because they are borrowing from themselves by printing money.
This dead-end is also compounded by a slowing global economy caused by the reluctance of private investors to spend.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we prepare investors for a collision between:
a slowing economy,
0% and negative% interest rates,
an unsustainable debt binge.
What happens next hasn't occurred before in our lifetime - and this is why many investors will be blindsided.
The document discusses several financial challenges facing Americans, including rising healthcare costs, increased longevity, challenges with Social Security and Medicare funding, and large federal budget deficits. It argues that individuals need to take a proactive approach to planning for retirement and protecting their savings, rather than relying only on "safe" low-yield investments or reacting to short-term concerns. Accumulating supplemental retirement income and choosing products that can help protect savings, such as life insurance or annuities, are presented as ways for individuals to better prepare for retirement and unexpected expenses.
Don Meredith • Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp.
- The Millennial obsession by David Wismer
- Global decline in oil prices leads to “Fracklog”
- VIX ETFs not right for investors by Tom McClellan
- A generational shift in target marketing (Bryce Winkel, Transamerica Financial Advisors Inc.)
The document provides a seasonal market outlook and review of global markets in Q4 2014 and for the year as a whole. Key points:
- Global stock markets fell sharply in mid-December due to falling commodity prices but recovered by Christmas. The FTSE 100 ended 2014 down 2.7%.
- Mining stocks and food retailers struggled while utility companies performed well, benefiting from growing demand for income and declining rate expectations.
- Commodity prices are expected to remain weak in 2015 due to slowing demand from Europe and China and increased supply, particularly of oil from US shale production.
The document discusses the current economic cycle and signs that the economy may be slowing down after nearly a decade of growth. It notes that while economic numbers have been strong, interest rates have risen several times in recent years and indicators like the CAPE ratio suggest the market may be overvalued. Rather than trying to time the market, the document recommends investors hedge risks by taking advantage of tax laws to protect assets and reduce downside if a market correction occurs.
Healthcare and biotech has put in a phenomenal performance over the past few years, driven by some very powerful structural demographic trends, but also by some very exciting advances in technology. Is there more to come? Master Investor Magazine has assembled some of the leading minds in healthcare and biotech to get a better picture of where the sector is heading. Master Investor Magazine is the UK's leading free investment publication. Download previous editions of the magazine at https://masterinvestor.co.uk/magazine
Reinventing Your Retirement New Realities For New Challenges For Clear ViewSteve Stanganelli
This presentation is part of the Transition Assistance Plan workshop series offered through Salem Works.
While many things in life are uncertain, we can control how we make better decisions. This presentation highlights the fundamental approach needed for short-term fixes and getting back on track long-term.
The document discusses the business opportunity available through Synergy Financial Partners. It outlines three categories of people who may be interested in the opportunity - business owners, self-employed/dual career individuals, and clients. It then discusses SFP's mission to change how Americans plan for their financial future and their vision to build the best consumer financial education company. The rest of the document focuses on explaining the problems Americans face financially, how SFP's solutions address these problems, and the business opportunity available through SFP.
This document summarizes 10 common and costly pension mistakes that many British people make. These mistakes include not saving enough for retirement, delaying saving which reduces the power of compound returns, failing to regularly check pension pots and investments, ignoring fees which can significantly reduce the overall value of a pension, relying too heavily on inheritances to fund retirement, not taking advantage of employer pension contributions, opting out of company pension schemes which forfeits employer matching contributions, assuming the state pension will be sufficient, not using pensions to save tax through tax relief on contributions, and accessing pensions early which incurs penalties. The document stresses that pension mistakes can be very expensive due to the long time horizon over retirement savings have to grow. It provides examples to
This document is a speech given by Phil Edmands, Managing Director of Rio Tinto, at the Minerals Week 2014 conference. Some key points:
- Rio Tinto employs over 22,000 people in Australia and interacts with thousands more. Regaining competitiveness is about helping people's livelihoods.
- Australia faces challenges to its competitiveness from both emerging and developed economies. Issues like taxes, industrial relations, and regulations must be addressed urgently through reform to attract investment and jobs.
- Rio Tinto paid nearly $5.7 billion in taxes to Australian governments in 2013. However, taxes are too high for industries like coal currently, and Australia risks losing investments if taxes are not balanced
Meltdown presentation atca full master Mike HaywardEd Dodds
Mike Hayward: With the help of DK, I have redrafted my Meltdown presentation to be suitable for an International Audience and it is attached below. I have already given this talk at several UK universities with more to come. It is designed multidisciplinary audiences so it is not too technical and is richly illustrated. Please feel free to use and adapt the presentation to suit your own needs and viewpoint. My name is not mentioned in the presentation. The subject is too important to claim authorship or credit.
Summary...... The global debt mountain, peak oil, population growth, resource depletion, population growth, the pension time bomb and climate change are all interconnected.
Meltdown did not occur in October 2008, but we were within 4 hours of it happening. It has only been deferred. Remember, only 3 dozen economists correctly predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, out of a profession of 20,000 members. Not one of the World politicians and Central Bankers saw the crisis coming, but all of them claim to know the remedy. The reasons for the 2008 crash have not gone away. The US housing market is still in freefall and US and European Banks are becoming increasingly insolvent, although they won't admit it. Economic growth will be stifled by rising oil prices. The bailouts are not working. World Politicians, Bankers and Economists are trying to maintain the status quo but they are losing control. Fundamentally, the real systemic causes of the crisis are rarely discussed with transparency and have not been addressed. Fractional Reserve Banking and universal public ignorance of banking practices are the cause of all the our global problems.
The collapse will happen within the next couple of years. The Eurozone or USA will most probably be the epicentre. The interconnectivity of the financial system means we will all be affected. What happens next after the collapse is impossible to predict. History is replete with examples but not on a Global scale. Massive political unrest will prevail. There will be a rise in popularity of extreme left and right political parties.
The document discusses how companies can anticipate, act on, and adjust to changes in the business environment based on a presentation by Ravi Parmeswar of Citigroup. It emphasizes the need for strategic agility, continuous sensing of changes on the periphery, collaboration, and forgetting past strategies that no longer apply in today's dynamic world. Companies must anticipate trends, act quickly through agile execution, and regularly adjust plans based on real-time feedback to stay ahead of the competition in the "new normal" global economic environment.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
The document discusses challenges facing Social Security and potential reforms. By 2034, Social Security's trust fund is projected to become depleted, requiring an automatic 20% benefits cut or 25% payroll tax increase. Several reform options are outlined, including gradually increasing taxes or reducing benefits, but none fully address the shortfall. The document emphasizes that earlier Congressional action allows for more gradual changes and planning. It also reviews the economy and financial markets in 2023, noting strong returns despite challenges. Five insights for 2024 markets are provided, including the potential for further gains if inflation stabilizes and rates are cut. The importance of staying invested through changing conditions is stressed.
The document provides information on three key topics:
1. The three pillars of retirement - how much one saves, withdraws, and how well their portfolio performs. Saving adequately and avoiding excessive withdrawals are emphasized.
2. Harry Markowitz and his pioneering work developing Modern Portfolio Theory in the 1950s, which revolutionized investing through diversification and analyzing risk and return.
3. How artificial intelligence and new technologies can boost productivity and economic growth over the long run, though their impacts are often overestimated in the short term. Maintaining a level-headed perspective on new technologies is advised for investors.
The document provides a summary of global market performance in 2020. The US stock market outperformed other major markets, returning 20.89%. International developed markets returned 7.59% while emerging markets returned 18.31%. Within international stocks, Denmark and Sweden saw the best returns among developed markets, while Korea and Taiwan led emerging markets. Bond markets also posted gains, with the US bond market returning 7.51%.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
The document provides information about the next six months from the perspective of a financial advisor. It discusses the turbulent past six months due to the COVID-19 pandemic and hopes the next six months will be better. It then analyzes the impact past US presidents have had on markets and the economy during their terms, noting both positive and negative impacts. It concludes that a Biden or Trump presidency will likely have a mixed impact, and that investors should stay the course and focus on long-term investing rather than trying to time markets based on who is president.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
- US stocks outperformed international developed and emerging markets in Q3 2019, with value outperforming growth. Small caps underperformed large caps in the US.
- International developed markets underperformed the US but outperformed emerging markets in Q3. Small caps outperformed large caps internationally.
- Emerging markets significantly underperformed both the US and international developed markets in Q3. Value underperformed growth in emerging markets.
This report features world capital market performance and a
timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global
overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset
classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified
portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
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Q3 2013 Newsletter
1. Q3 2013
Looking Back in
Shock and Awe
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
ƒƒ
ƒƒ
ƒƒ
ƒƒ
ƒƒ
ƒƒ
ƒƒ
LOOKING BACK
1
HOLIDAY EVENT ANNOUNCEMENT
1
WORST CASE SCENARIOS
2
YOUR OUTSIDE ASSETS
2
HOUSTON IS THE PLACE TO BE
3
IS NOW A GOOD TIME TO INVEST?
4
FOUR WAYS TO INCREASE LIFE
EXPECTANCY5
ƒƒ OTHER ANNOUNCEMENTS
6
“SCIENCE CAN PREDICT THE NEXT ECLIPSE OF THE SUN YEARS IN ADVANCE, BUT CANNOT PREDICT THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.”
- ANONYMOUS
By Mike Booker, CFP®, ChFC, CFS®
Remember 2008? Yes, I know. Thinking back on the traumatic market downturn evokes memories of anxiety and uncertainty. But
after every dark night, a sunrise. In fact, since the “darkest night” of the Great Recession (March 9, 2009), investors who stayed
the course have not only recovered their losses, but they have stacked up impressive gains as the SP 500 has staged a meteoric
recovery of 173.98% (3/9/09 – 9/30/13). Sadly, many investors cashed out in the first quarter of 2009. With the benefit of hindsight, this was clearly a very bad move.
A study earlier this year from Fidelity highlights what happened to those who went to cash in the first quarter of 2009 and
those who stayed the course. As you might imagine, the disparity of results were quite dramatic. Pre-retirees (age 55 and older)
who dropped stocks from their 401(k) by the first quarter of 2009 and never rebalanced saw their balances grow by just 25.9%
through the first quarter of 2013. Their average balance rose during this period from $80,200 to only $101,000. Those who stayed
put are doing better…much better.
The average pre-retiree 401(k) balance has nearly doubled since the recovery began in March of 2009, rising
from $130,700 to $255,000. According to the president of Fidelity Investments’ Workplace Investing, James
MacDonald, “There is a valuable lesson to be learned from the minority of pre-retirees who abandoned equities altogether and experienced significantly less progress. It underscores the combined importance of a
proper asset allocation and savings behavior as they planned for retirement within all that life entails.”
For those who endured the market downturn and were rewarded with the subsequent recovery, the bad news
is that the average 401(k) balance of $255,000 is only about enough to pay for health care expenses alone in
retirement. But for those that took their 401(k) accounts to cash and waited until “things looked better”, things
couldn’t look worse.
Save the Date!
3rd Annual Holiday Event
December 5th, 2013
Please join us at 6pm at the Alley Theatre for a
catered reception followed by a presentation of
Charles Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol - A Ghost Story of Christmas”
2. “DIRE PREDICTIONS ARE A DIME A DOZEN THESE DAYS”
Worst Case
Scenarios
By Mike Booker, CFP®, ChFC, CFS®
Negativity has permeated our society of late. Predictions of disastrous consequences from the federal debt ceiling impasse abound.
Some pundits worry that inflation arising from dramatic increases in the monetary supply will surely diminish our future lifestyles. European sovereign debt crises will eventually contaminate the American banking system, and global warming will cause our coastal cities
to flood, etc.
Not everything is wonderful, I admit. But it is pretty clear to me that the dire predictions we read every day may, like so many previous
dire predictions, turn out to be laughably wrong. A few of my favorites:
· 2011 - Japanese Tsunami will cause breakdown in world supply chains, economic calamity and total market collapse.
· 2005 - Asian bird flu to trigger 1930s-style economic catastrophe.
· 1974 - Jimmy Carter warns that we will use up all the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade. In 1970,
the world had 550 billion barrels of proven reserves. Between 1970 and 1990 we actually used 600 billion barrels, so theoretically, we
should have already run out. Instead, actual U.S. crude oil production is expected to exceed Saudi Arabia’s somewhere out in 2015 or
so.
The list goes on and on, but you get the point. Dire predictions are a dime a dozen these days and most are overblown or just wrong.
In an article written in Advisor Perspectives this past August by Bob Veres, advisor to financial advisors, he notes that “Clients and the
world at large give inordinate attention to downside scenarios, and nobody is calling our attention to the much larger upside of our
business and investment landscape. The human brain amplifies this effect, because it is hardwired to notice threats much more than
opportunities.” He notes how important it is for investors to look beyond the negative headlines to see the positive economic stories
out there.
For example, Veres quotes David Sterns of Sterns Financial Services in the article, “The natural gas situation could hardly be more favorable. Within three to five years, the U.S. will become the largest natural gas exporter in the world. It is estimated that the U.S. will be
totally energy-independent within five years, perhaps sooner.”
Sterns believes this will lead to other beneficial effects that are the exact opposite of the discouraging projections
you see in the papers. “Manufacturers are quietly bringing their plants back into the U.S., and using natural gas
to run them,” says Stearns. “This gives them a more stable energy footprint, and in some cases even a lower-cost
footprint. I sit in on a lot of those meetings with companies,” Stearns adds, “and I can tell you, they want stable even
more than they want cheap.”
So, while there is always something to wring our hands about, let’s not forget to notice the beneficial economic
forces that are building while we are hand wringing. There is a lot of good stuff coming our way. Sometimes you
just have to look for it.
Are your outside assets getting the attention they deserve?
In today’s fast paced world it’s easy to neglect outside accounts like your 401(k) or deferred compensation plan. We are pleased
to announce that we now have the ability to help you manage your 401(k) (or any investment account) held outside of Charles
Schwab for a nominal fee. We believe that a comprehensive understanding of our client’s financial lives is essential when providing
sound advice. We’ve always offered our clients asset allocation recommendations for these “held-away” accounts. However, only
now do we have the technology in place to help our clients with the ongoing management of accounts held outside of Charles
Schwab Co.
In addition to making investment recommendations, we can also provide detailed performance reporting, assistance with trading
and rebalancing, daily account monitoring, and online access through finsyn.com, just as we do now for your managed Schwab
accounts.
We strive to provide our clients with cutting edge service offerings. If you would like ongoing professional guidance with your
401(k), 403(b) or any other account held outside of Charles Schwab Co., please feel free to give us a call.
2
3. “I LOVE THIS CITY”
Houston Is
The Place to Be
By Mike Minter, CFP®, CFS®
It is probably no surprise that Houston’s economy is strong, but sometimes I take for granted how blessed I am to live in such a prosperous city. The U.S. economy is clawing its way back to normalcy and there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but there are still parts of
the country where things look bleak, e.g. Detroit. And here I am in Houston, TX where the future has never looked brighter.
Houston has become an undisputed leader in domestic and international business, with economic ties reaching across the globe. The
city benefits from a highly skilled workforce and has one of the largest concentrations of engineering talent generated from its energy,
aerospace, and medical industries. People from around the globe are flocking to Houston to fill the growing needs of the region.
Strong GDP Growth
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Houston’s economic activity accelerated last year.
Adjusted for inflation, the city’s gross domestic
product (GDP) grew by 5.7% in 2012. In 2011 GDP
grew by 3.7%. In both years Houston’s growth rate
was more than double the U.S. growth rate.
As illustrated below, Houston’s GDP growth for
2011 - 2012 was second fastest among the nation’s
major metro cities; topped only by San Francisco.
Energy Industry Dominance
Obviously a major contributor to Houston’s economic
success is the energy industry. Houston is the country’s energy headquarters and the international center
for every segment of the oil and gas industry including
exploration, production, transmission, marketing, and
technology.
More than 3,700 energy-related companies are located
in the Houston Metro area, including 40 of the nation’s
145 publicly traded oil and gas exploration and production firms. Houston simply dominates the energy
industry, and there is not a more promising sector of
the U.S. economy.
The people
And beyond the strong economy and job market, the people of this great city are the icing on the cake. We
meet with clients and business associates from all over the country and they all have one thing to say about
Houston – everyone is just so nice!
I cannot think of anywhere else in the world I’d rather call home. I love this city.
*Source: Greater Houston Partnership
3
4. Is Now a Good Time
to Start Investing?
By Heath Hightower, CFP®
“Is now a good time to start investing?” It’s a simple question, but
it’s almost impossible to answer because it requires a market prediction. Most people agree that trying to predict the market is impossible, but it’s human nature to try to buy at the “right time.”
Of course, waiting to invest your money has an opportunity cost.
Over the last several years, some investors have kept their portfolios
in cash, waiting for things to look better. Unfortunately these investors missed out on one of the greatest market recoveries in history.
For instance, in 2009 many investors felt the market was too risky and chose to sit on the sidelines until the financial crisis subsided.
In 2010, it was the recession. In 2011, investors held cash because of the Japanese nuclear disaster turmoil in the European banking system. In 2012, the crisis du jour was the election and fiscal cliff. Today, the primary reason that some people prefer to hold
cash rather than stocks is the government shutdown and the ongoing debt ceiling debate.
Some investors have been waiting to buy at the “right time” for several years. Sadly, waiting to invest their portfolios has cost them
dearly. Here’s what the SP 500 has done over the last 5 calendar years:
Year 2009:
+26%
Year 2010:
+15%
Year 2011:
+2%
Year 2012:
+16%
2013 YTD:
+20%
What matters more is where
the market is when you need to sell.
Total Compounded Return from 2009 – 2013, 3rd Quarter: 106.49%*
History lessons aside, the question is always the same… “Is now a good time to start investing?” Rather than trying to predict how
the market will react to the latest political whirlwind (which is impossible to do), I’d rather answer the question by reframing the
conversation. Here’s how the conversation typically goes…
Client: I’m really worried about this (insert latest crisis here) that I saw on the evening news last night. Do you really think that it’s a
good time to start investing? It’s scary out there!
Advisor: That depends on how soon you might need this money. Do you plan on investing it to fund your long term goals like retirement, or do you plan on needing this money over the next 1 – 5 years to buy a car, take a vacation, etc.?
Client: My objectives are long term and my primary goal is to make sure that I don’t outlive my money. I need this money to grow
over the long term so that it can produce an income for me when I retire. I don’t plan on touching it until then and I hope to supplement my income from the portfolio once I’m retired. I’m just spooked by all of the talking heads on the news. You’d think it was
Armageddon every single night!
Advisor: That’s a great point. The nightly news can be quite dramatic; however, it’s important not to lose sight of your long term
objectives. In your case, it really doesn’t matter what the market does in response to the (insert latest crisis here). What matters more
is where the market is when you need to sell. Do you think the market will be higher or lower when that time comes?
Client: I suspect it will be higher since we’re talking about 5, 10, or even 15 years down the road. I’m only 60 years
old, so I might need my portfolio to support my living expenses for another 30+ years.
Advisor: I agree. Over the long term markets tend to go up. Rather than basing your investment plan on unpredictable short term market movements, let’s design a diversified portfolio around your specific long term goals
and objectives. And remember, we also tailor the plan to minimize your risk exposures to the (insert latest crisis
here) by diversifying into multiple asset classes like stocks, bonds, hard assets and alternatives. As time goes on,
we’ll make changes to the portfolio as your investment time horizon and risk tolerance change.
Client: That makes sense.
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5. Four Ways You Can Increase Your
Life Expectancy
By Bryan Zschiesche, CFP®, MBA
At a recent event, I was introduced to a book called Living to 100. The book explores many of the factors that contribute
to longevity and is based on research performed by the New England Centenarian Study. As you probably know, a centenarian is a person who has lived beyond the age of 100. The subject of longevity interests me for a couple of reasons.
First, as a financial advisor, life expectancy plays a major role in the planning process and is a critical factor to consider
when planning for the distribution phase of one’s life.
The second and more personal reason is that longevity runs in my family. My father’s paternal grandmother (“Granny
Zschiesche”) lived to the age of 100, and my mother’s paternal grandmother (“Nana”) lived to 94. We often asked both of
these incredible women to what they attributed their long lives. My favorite response always came from Nana, a devout
Catholic, who credited her long life to her daily consumption of two glasses of red wine: one during her “happy hour”
and one during her “holy hour.”
The New England Centenarian Study originally began in 1995 with all centenarians living in eight towns in the Boston
area. According to the latest data on Boston University’s website, the study now includes approximately 1,600 centenarians, including 107 “supercentenarians” (people age 110 and over). The study focuses extensively on genetic and
behavioral drivers of longevity. Given that we have no control over our genes, my interest today lies in the behavioral
factors that contribute to a long, healthy life.
Here are four factors which, according to the study, have the potential to increase life expectancy:
Flossing your teeth daily adds 1 year. I must admit, this one surprised me. According to the study, “Recent scientific
evidence reveals that chronic gum disease leads to the release of inflammatory, toxic substances and certain bacteria
into the bloodstream, which leads to plaque formation in arteries and ultimately to heart disease.”
Taking one 81 mg aspirin daily adds 2 years. It probably goes without saying that you should consult your doctor
before taking any medication, but studies have shown that low doses of aspirin improve heart and brain health and can
reduce the likelihood of heart attack or stroke.
Limiting your consumption of red meat adds 3 years. Keeping your weekly consumption of red meat to 1 – 2 days
limits your iron intake. Evidence suggests that elevated iron levels can lead to the formation of arterial plaque.
Quitting smoking adds 22 years. I debated whether or not to even include this one since the effects of smoking are
so widely known. But more than any other lifestyle habit, smoking has the highest chance of reducing life expectancy.
Approximately 400,000 deaths annually are attributed to smoking.
This is just a sampling of some of the behavioral changes that have the potential in increase longevity. Keeping your weight at a healthy level, exercising frequently and checking blood sugar, cholesterol and blood pressure regularly can all have an impact. If you’re interested in completing a
questionnaire to estimate your own life expectancy and see which factors may benefit you, visit the
site www.livingto100.com.
And if you were wondering whether or not the study mentions anything about the effect of “holy
hour,” you may be interested to know that, “Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with
decreased heart disease risk.” Our dear Nana may have been on to something.
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