Abstract from MARCH 2012 fasanara 'fat tail risk hedging programs' FTRHPsFasanara Capital ltd
This document discusses portfolio hedging strategies, including security-specific hedging, macro overlay hedging, and Fat Tail Risk Hedging Programs. It provides examples of strategies to hedge various tail risks, such as short positions in Japanese equities and currency to hedge risks of a credit crunch or default scenario. Short positions in shipping companies and rates are discussed to hedge risks associated with a decline in China's commodity imports. Purchasing out of the money options on currencies like the Swiss Franc and Danish Krone are presented as ways to hedge against an EU break up scenario. Short positions in Japanese rates and long gold are discussed as hedges against an inflation scenario. Declining Chinese export growth is cited as
Global Research
1) Global rebalancing will weigh on risk assets like equities over the coming years as current account imbalances continue to narrow.
2) European and Asian equities excluding Japan are preferred to US equities for 2016.
3) Overweight defensive equity sectors, underweight government bonds, and prefer investment grade over high yield credit.
http://pwc.to/11CB1Xq
Dans son étude « Working Capital Survey 2013 », PwC montre que la performance BFR (Besoin en Fonds de Roulement, soit la trésorerie mobilisée par l’activité) des entreprises mondiales s'est dégradée de 2 % par rapport à l'année dernière. Seule exception, les sociétés européennes ont amélioré leur situation, démontrant une corrélation entre PIB et niveaux de BFR.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
Moneyweb Investment Focus, with Discovery Invest (November 2009)moneyweb
The new normal - Alec Hogg, Moneyweb / Panning for gold in muddy waters - Kerrin Howard, Discovery Invest / Lessons learned from the collapse of Lehman Brothers - David Shapiro, Sasfin
Business 502 Term Project - Investment BrochureKawin Koh
The document is an investor newsletter that discusses investment opportunities in international economies. It summarizes the following:
1) It divides countries into three categories for investment purposes: high-income countries, middle-income countries, and low-income countries. Each category has different growth and risk profiles that may not be suitable for all investors.
2) It analyzes the historical GDP growth and risk ratings of countries in each category over the past 30 years. GDP has grown consistently across all categories, while risk ratings have remained stable or improved.
3) It compares the recent performance and characteristics of each country category, such as average annual returns, GDP composition, population growth, and standard of living. High-income countries
Abstract from MARCH 2012 fasanara 'fat tail risk hedging programs' FTRHPsFasanara Capital ltd
This document discusses portfolio hedging strategies, including security-specific hedging, macro overlay hedging, and Fat Tail Risk Hedging Programs. It provides examples of strategies to hedge various tail risks, such as short positions in Japanese equities and currency to hedge risks of a credit crunch or default scenario. Short positions in shipping companies and rates are discussed to hedge risks associated with a decline in China's commodity imports. Purchasing out of the money options on currencies like the Swiss Franc and Danish Krone are presented as ways to hedge against an EU break up scenario. Short positions in Japanese rates and long gold are discussed as hedges against an inflation scenario. Declining Chinese export growth is cited as
Global Research
1) Global rebalancing will weigh on risk assets like equities over the coming years as current account imbalances continue to narrow.
2) European and Asian equities excluding Japan are preferred to US equities for 2016.
3) Overweight defensive equity sectors, underweight government bonds, and prefer investment grade over high yield credit.
http://pwc.to/11CB1Xq
Dans son étude « Working Capital Survey 2013 », PwC montre que la performance BFR (Besoin en Fonds de Roulement, soit la trésorerie mobilisée par l’activité) des entreprises mondiales s'est dégradée de 2 % par rapport à l'année dernière. Seule exception, les sociétés européennes ont amélioré leur situation, démontrant une corrélation entre PIB et niveaux de BFR.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
Moneyweb Investment Focus, with Discovery Invest (November 2009)moneyweb
The new normal - Alec Hogg, Moneyweb / Panning for gold in muddy waters - Kerrin Howard, Discovery Invest / Lessons learned from the collapse of Lehman Brothers - David Shapiro, Sasfin
Business 502 Term Project - Investment BrochureKawin Koh
The document is an investor newsletter that discusses investment opportunities in international economies. It summarizes the following:
1) It divides countries into three categories for investment purposes: high-income countries, middle-income countries, and low-income countries. Each category has different growth and risk profiles that may not be suitable for all investors.
2) It analyzes the historical GDP growth and risk ratings of countries in each category over the past 30 years. GDP has grown consistently across all categories, while risk ratings have remained stable or improved.
3) It compares the recent performance and characteristics of each country category, such as average annual returns, GDP composition, population growth, and standard of living. High-income countries
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
For many, the investment world can be a confusing place. Banks, mutual finds, stocks, bonds, currencies, insurance, inflation, taxes, economies - it's no wonder the majority have glossed eyes.
And sitting on top of this confusion pie are central banks.
Each country has its own central bank which is responsible for setting overnight interest rates and the amount of money in that country's financial system.
Yet, there is one central bank that is the most important, sits on top of the world, and all of its actions impact not only their local country, but also every other country in the world.
This central bank is the US Federal Reserve.
In this latest IceCap Global Outlook we share how actions by the US Federal Reserve are always reactive to a crisis which, ironically, it helped create in the first place.
Today's central banks are once again, trying to thread the financial needle, and rescue us from the crisis that was born from the depths of the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis.
The crisis is happening, yet there is good news - the crisis is creating opportunities to not only preserve your hard earned savings, but to capitalize too.
This section examines the relationship between the Japanese yen and the US dollar over a 12-month period. It finds that the yen appreciated against the dollar, reaching a 14-year high in November 2009, but declined at various points when the Japanese government intervened verbally or through monetary policy to devalue the yen. Key factors that influenced the currency fluctuations included differences in price inflation and interest rates between the two economies, as well as shifting market psychology. The yen's appreciation has economic implications for Japan, such as making exports less competitive and posing challenges for monetary policy effectiveness.
- Global gross financial assets grew 4.9% in 2015 to EUR 155 trillion, the weakest rate since 2011, as monetary policy becomes less effective.
- Securities performed best (+6.1%), while growth of insurance/pension funds lagged (+3.3%) due to low interest rates.
- Asia (excl. Japan) grew fastest (+15%), while growth slowed in other regions, especially developed countries like Western Europe (+3.2%) and North America (+2.6%).
- Household debt grew 4.5% globally, stable from 2014, though growth varied regionally with increases in Asia and declines in Latin America and Eastern Europe.
"GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND IT'S IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY"Somnath Pagar
In the subsequent parts of the research report, several issues will be discussed which will provide a detailed account of the origin of the crisis (2008-spiraled mortgage crisis, starting in the United States) and the ripple effect of economic downturn of the world„s largest economy which engulfed even the fast growing emerging economies into the crisis. The main aim of the study is to find relevant answers to questions like:
Why and how India has been hit by the crisis?
How the Indian economy and the Reserve Bank of India have responded to the crisis?
Which are the opportunities arisen from the crises?
etc.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
2017 T. Rowe Price Global Economic OutlookT. Rowe Price
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economy from the perspective of Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist. It notes that global growth quickened in mid-2016 but post-crisis headwinds could limit further recovery. Developed markets are experiencing slower growth than emerging markets. U.S. expansion still has potential but recession risk is low in the near term. Debt levels remain high globally but are decreasing in some developed nations and increasing in others. Inflation is below central bank targets in most nations. Monetary policies continue to diverge between nations as some central banks further reduce rates while others consider reducing stimulus. Political risks remain in key countries and regions in 2017.
Global imbalances have declined since the financial crisis due to changes in demand and output in deficit and surplus countries. Real exchange rates do not fully explain changes in trade balances, as many other macroeconomic, financial, and structural factors are also at play. Assessing real exchange rates and current accounts requires analyzing exchange rate fundamentals in the context of external balances and net foreign asset positions over time. This is a complex task with different considerations for countries like China, the United States, and emerging markets experiencing large capital inflows. A multilateral approach is needed for sustainable global rebalancing.
The document discusses the need for a planned rollback of economic stimulus packages as economies show signs of recovery. It notes that while stimulus was needed to boost economies, prolonged reliance on stimulus can undermine sustainable growth and fiscal stability. A gradual, coordinated reduction in stimulus by governments and central banks is necessary to transition economies off artificial support. However, full recovery is not yet assured given remaining risks, so stimulus withdrawal needs careful management.
The document discusses Japan's economic bubble from 1986 to 1990, which led to a "Lost Decade" from 1990 to 2000. During the bubble, real estate and stock prices greatly inflated but then collapsed, with stock prices bottoming in 2003. During the Lost Decade, Japan's economic growth plunged, unemployment rose, and deflation occurred. The Lost Decade was caused by the bursting of the economic bubble and exacerbated by inadequate domestic policies. Japan struggled to stimulate domestic consumption and implement structural reforms to recover from this economic crisis.
Contagion fears flowing through markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It notes that politics are driving market moves with increased geopolitical risks. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be watched closely. Analysis is provided on major currency pairs, stock indexes, commodities and bonds. Risks are elevated and political factors like trade disputes are impacting demand concerns and contributing to volatility.
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
www.mycwmusa.com
The document discusses Japan's economic crisis in the 1990s known as the "Lost Decade". It began with the bursting of an asset price bubble in the late 1980s that led to a prolonged period of deflation and stagnation. Real estate and stock prices declined dramatically. GDP growth slowed and wages stagnated as unemployment rose. The economy struggled for over a decade to recover from this crisis, which was characterized by over-lending, an asset price collapse, and deflation that the government and central bank had difficulty addressing.
The document provides a quarterly analysis of market conditions from a senior analyst. It finds that while technical indicators are moderately bullish, sentiment has shifted to pessimism after the market correction. Liquidity remains sufficient due to central bank intervention, but credit growth is modest and not very productive. The fundamentals are concerning as economic reports have disappointed and earnings warnings have increased, suggesting growth needs to pick up in the second half for a positive outlook.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
The document discusses highlights for 2012 including:
1) An upward bias for stocks in the range of 1,100 to 1,550 and low bias for interest rates in the first half of 2012, though headwinds and uncertainty may arise quickly.
2) 2012 will be a significant time of historical transformations as pressures build from unresolved issues like high global debt and political unrest, similar to the 1970s-1980s.
3) TSWM will maintain a well-thought-out asset allocation plan and conservative balance to mitigate emotional decision-making as volatility increases, relying on sound portfolio principles.
The document discusses how sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have emerged as major players in global financial markets due to a shift in the global economic landscape driven by globalization. SWFs now influence the global financial system as their investments have reversed traditional capital flows. Their long term investment horizons and risk tolerances differentiate them from other institutional investors. The rise of SWFs reflects a secular shift in global wealth from developed to developing economies and those with natural resources.
1. The document discusses Erwin Rode's presentation on economic prospects for South Africa and the world.
2. Rode predicts that world and European growth will remain poor for many years, around 10 years, due to the ongoing financial crisis.
3. For South Africa, Rode forecasts lower growth in the coming years as a result of weak global growth and infrastructure constraints domestically, although China may provide some support. Taxes and tariffs are also expected to rise.
The document is a report from First National Bank (FNB) that provides an analysis of property market trends in South Africa. It summarizes data on house prices, commercial property values, construction costs, demand and supply factors, and investment returns. The report finds that while house prices and commercial property values increased in recent years, the market is showing signs of weakness, with high supply, falling demand, and lengthening times for properties to sell. Total property returns have also started declining again in 2011.
Wayne McCurrie on Fixed Income and Cash Investingmoneyweb
Fixed income and cash investing were to be discussed. The agenda included introductions to fixed income markets and cash investing, as well as broad asset allocations. Fixed income includes government, agency, corporate and municipal bonds. Cash investing provides capital preservation but returns are typically lower than inflation over time. Relative valuations of fixed income versus equities were to also be reviewed.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
For many, the investment world can be a confusing place. Banks, mutual finds, stocks, bonds, currencies, insurance, inflation, taxes, economies - it's no wonder the majority have glossed eyes.
And sitting on top of this confusion pie are central banks.
Each country has its own central bank which is responsible for setting overnight interest rates and the amount of money in that country's financial system.
Yet, there is one central bank that is the most important, sits on top of the world, and all of its actions impact not only their local country, but also every other country in the world.
This central bank is the US Federal Reserve.
In this latest IceCap Global Outlook we share how actions by the US Federal Reserve are always reactive to a crisis which, ironically, it helped create in the first place.
Today's central banks are once again, trying to thread the financial needle, and rescue us from the crisis that was born from the depths of the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis.
The crisis is happening, yet there is good news - the crisis is creating opportunities to not only preserve your hard earned savings, but to capitalize too.
This section examines the relationship between the Japanese yen and the US dollar over a 12-month period. It finds that the yen appreciated against the dollar, reaching a 14-year high in November 2009, but declined at various points when the Japanese government intervened verbally or through monetary policy to devalue the yen. Key factors that influenced the currency fluctuations included differences in price inflation and interest rates between the two economies, as well as shifting market psychology. The yen's appreciation has economic implications for Japan, such as making exports less competitive and posing challenges for monetary policy effectiveness.
- Global gross financial assets grew 4.9% in 2015 to EUR 155 trillion, the weakest rate since 2011, as monetary policy becomes less effective.
- Securities performed best (+6.1%), while growth of insurance/pension funds lagged (+3.3%) due to low interest rates.
- Asia (excl. Japan) grew fastest (+15%), while growth slowed in other regions, especially developed countries like Western Europe (+3.2%) and North America (+2.6%).
- Household debt grew 4.5% globally, stable from 2014, though growth varied regionally with increases in Asia and declines in Latin America and Eastern Europe.
"GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND IT'S IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY"Somnath Pagar
In the subsequent parts of the research report, several issues will be discussed which will provide a detailed account of the origin of the crisis (2008-spiraled mortgage crisis, starting in the United States) and the ripple effect of economic downturn of the world„s largest economy which engulfed even the fast growing emerging economies into the crisis. The main aim of the study is to find relevant answers to questions like:
Why and how India has been hit by the crisis?
How the Indian economy and the Reserve Bank of India have responded to the crisis?
Which are the opportunities arisen from the crises?
etc.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
2017 T. Rowe Price Global Economic OutlookT. Rowe Price
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economy from the perspective of Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist. It notes that global growth quickened in mid-2016 but post-crisis headwinds could limit further recovery. Developed markets are experiencing slower growth than emerging markets. U.S. expansion still has potential but recession risk is low in the near term. Debt levels remain high globally but are decreasing in some developed nations and increasing in others. Inflation is below central bank targets in most nations. Monetary policies continue to diverge between nations as some central banks further reduce rates while others consider reducing stimulus. Political risks remain in key countries and regions in 2017.
Global imbalances have declined since the financial crisis due to changes in demand and output in deficit and surplus countries. Real exchange rates do not fully explain changes in trade balances, as many other macroeconomic, financial, and structural factors are also at play. Assessing real exchange rates and current accounts requires analyzing exchange rate fundamentals in the context of external balances and net foreign asset positions over time. This is a complex task with different considerations for countries like China, the United States, and emerging markets experiencing large capital inflows. A multilateral approach is needed for sustainable global rebalancing.
The document discusses the need for a planned rollback of economic stimulus packages as economies show signs of recovery. It notes that while stimulus was needed to boost economies, prolonged reliance on stimulus can undermine sustainable growth and fiscal stability. A gradual, coordinated reduction in stimulus by governments and central banks is necessary to transition economies off artificial support. However, full recovery is not yet assured given remaining risks, so stimulus withdrawal needs careful management.
The document discusses Japan's economic bubble from 1986 to 1990, which led to a "Lost Decade" from 1990 to 2000. During the bubble, real estate and stock prices greatly inflated but then collapsed, with stock prices bottoming in 2003. During the Lost Decade, Japan's economic growth plunged, unemployment rose, and deflation occurred. The Lost Decade was caused by the bursting of the economic bubble and exacerbated by inadequate domestic policies. Japan struggled to stimulate domestic consumption and implement structural reforms to recover from this economic crisis.
Contagion fears flowing through markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It notes that politics are driving market moves with increased geopolitical risks. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be watched closely. Analysis is provided on major currency pairs, stock indexes, commodities and bonds. Risks are elevated and political factors like trade disputes are impacting demand concerns and contributing to volatility.
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
www.mycwmusa.com
The document discusses Japan's economic crisis in the 1990s known as the "Lost Decade". It began with the bursting of an asset price bubble in the late 1980s that led to a prolonged period of deflation and stagnation. Real estate and stock prices declined dramatically. GDP growth slowed and wages stagnated as unemployment rose. The economy struggled for over a decade to recover from this crisis, which was characterized by over-lending, an asset price collapse, and deflation that the government and central bank had difficulty addressing.
The document provides a quarterly analysis of market conditions from a senior analyst. It finds that while technical indicators are moderately bullish, sentiment has shifted to pessimism after the market correction. Liquidity remains sufficient due to central bank intervention, but credit growth is modest and not very productive. The fundamentals are concerning as economic reports have disappointed and earnings warnings have increased, suggesting growth needs to pick up in the second half for a positive outlook.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
The document discusses highlights for 2012 including:
1) An upward bias for stocks in the range of 1,100 to 1,550 and low bias for interest rates in the first half of 2012, though headwinds and uncertainty may arise quickly.
2) 2012 will be a significant time of historical transformations as pressures build from unresolved issues like high global debt and political unrest, similar to the 1970s-1980s.
3) TSWM will maintain a well-thought-out asset allocation plan and conservative balance to mitigate emotional decision-making as volatility increases, relying on sound portfolio principles.
The document discusses how sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have emerged as major players in global financial markets due to a shift in the global economic landscape driven by globalization. SWFs now influence the global financial system as their investments have reversed traditional capital flows. Their long term investment horizons and risk tolerances differentiate them from other institutional investors. The rise of SWFs reflects a secular shift in global wealth from developed to developing economies and those with natural resources.
1. The document discusses Erwin Rode's presentation on economic prospects for South Africa and the world.
2. Rode predicts that world and European growth will remain poor for many years, around 10 years, due to the ongoing financial crisis.
3. For South Africa, Rode forecasts lower growth in the coming years as a result of weak global growth and infrastructure constraints domestically, although China may provide some support. Taxes and tariffs are also expected to rise.
The document is a report from First National Bank (FNB) that provides an analysis of property market trends in South Africa. It summarizes data on house prices, commercial property values, construction costs, demand and supply factors, and investment returns. The report finds that while house prices and commercial property values increased in recent years, the market is showing signs of weakness, with high supply, falling demand, and lengthening times for properties to sell. Total property returns have also started declining again in 2011.
Wayne McCurrie on Fixed Income and Cash Investingmoneyweb
Fixed income and cash investing were to be discussed. The agenda included introductions to fixed income markets and cash investing, as well as broad asset allocations. Fixed income includes government, agency, corporate and municipal bonds. Cash investing provides capital preservation but returns are typically lower than inflation over time. Relative valuations of fixed income versus equities were to also be reviewed.
Rayjay Ambekar on valuations, asset allocation and marketsmoneyweb
The seminar discussed how the world still faces significant debt problems despite crisis being averted. It noted that debt levels remain too high relative to GDP in places like the US, and that saving rates are still low. Charts were presented showing rising debt levels in the US over time as well as declining private and public saving rates. Issues in Europe were also discussed along with how central bank balance sheets continue expanding. It was argued that loose monetary policies have helped drive up stock prices.
Erwin Rode on Prospects for Property (Cape Town presentation)moneyweb
The document summarizes Erwin Rode's presentation at a Moneyweb seminar on October 6, 2011. It indicates that below-average economic growth is expected in South Africa for many years, residential property remains overpriced, shopping center cash flows face ongoing pressure, quality non-residential properties have moderate oversupply nationally but are not overpriced, listed funds' distributions over the next 3 years will slow to around 4% annually and may be negatively re-rated along with long-term bonds.
The document summarizes key points from Warren Buffett's annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting. It discusses Buffett's views on the financial crisis, stocks he favors, and things he dislikes. It also provides an overview of Berkshire Hathaway's succession plans and Buffett's thoughts on what should be taught in business schools.
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides views on specific regions including the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, and other emerging markets. It notes recent price movements and economic indicators. For most areas it expresses a negative or cautious outlook given ongoing challenges and risks in the global economy.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Nicola Arnold
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides perspectives on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. It notes that central bank actions have inflated asset prices temporarily but that the large US national debt poses long-term sustainability issues. For Japan, it expects more stimulus measures to weaken the Yen further. The outlook is mostly negative given continued risks from high debt levels and prospects for currency depreciation from monetary easing.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The henley group's market outlook may 13Gary Lansdown
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, commodities, and alternative investments. For equities, it provides views on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. Key points discussed include the weakening Japanese yen, volatility in Japanese government bonds, mixed signals in the US and European economies, and recovering housing markets in the US and UK. Overall it maintains a mostly negative outlook due to ongoing debt and economic challenges while also highlighting some positive signs in selected areas.
Everyone enjoys a nice surprise - especially the ones that cause you to grin ear to ear, smile non-stop and wish the moment will never end.
There can also be bad surprises - and these are not the least bit enjoyable.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we explain how governments are about to experience a bad surprise. And their reaction to these surprises will be significantly higher taxes for everyone.
There will also be a good surprise - adjusting your portfolios in anticipation of the bad surprise will allow you to not only preserve your capital, but also have you grinning ear to ear.
We invite you to read more.
1. The portfolio manager discusses the market performance in Q2 2014, with the Canadian equity markets outperforming other global regions.
2. He explains that central bank monetary policies, particularly from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, have been a key driver for the stock market rally over the past few years by keeping interest rates low.
3. The portfolio manager reiterates his advice to investors to stick to their customized plans and not be deterred by short-term market fluctuations, as the plans are designed to navigate periods of volatility.
The global markets were volatile in Q1 2014 due to inconsistent economic data, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, and fears of slowing growth in China. Canadian markets performed best, gaining 6.2%, while US, European, and emerging markets also posted strong returns. The portfolio manager recommends sticking to a diversified plan and not making hasty decisions during periods of market uncertainty. Maintaining a balanced portfolio with stocks, bonds, and cash helps reduce risk and smooth returns over the long run.
This document discusses myths and realities about the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the markets and economy. It notes that while the speed of the market decline has been unprecedented, markets have recovered from deeper drawdowns historically. Government stimulus and an end to widespread shutdowns will determine the pace of economic and market recovery. Once containment measures are lifted and information becomes available, markets will recover from their oversold levels, creating a buying opportunity. Investors are advised to maintain discipline and long-term perspectives, rather than trying to time short-term volatility.
This report has been prepared by Cushman & Wakefield to provide an overview of the world’s key commercial real estate investment markets in 2014 and an indication of performance in 2015.
12:1:14 Global-Macro Trading SimulationPaul D. Kim
This document provides an analysis of currency and equity market trends from June 2014 through November 2014. It summarizes performance data showing gains in equity/futures and FX currency accounts compared to benchmark indexes. Charts are presented analyzing long-term trends in the US dollar index, euro-dollar exchange rate, and dollar-yen exchange rate, suggesting a breakout in the US dollar. Positions are listed that are expected to benefit from this US dollar strengthening and emerging market weakness.
The document provides an overview of markets and investment outlook from various managers in the last quarter. Key points include:
- Markets performed well despite initial Brexit reaction, with UK and international equities rising. Bonds and commodities also rose.
- Managers are assessing economic outlooks, seeing potential for US growth but concerns in Europe. Some see opportunities from coordinated fiscal plans.
- Managers have mixed views on regions like Japan, Europe, and property exposure. Bonds are largely held for safety over yield.
- The outlook discusses navigating uncertainty after Brexit through diversification. Unemployment rates suggest the UK economy remains stronger than Eurozone economies.
The document provides an overview of markets and investment outlook from various managers in the last quarter. Key points include:
- Markets performed well despite initial Brexit reaction, with UK and international equities rising. Bonds and commodities also rose.
- Managers are assessing economic outlooks, seeing potential for US growth but concerns in Europe. Some see opportunities from coordinated fiscal plans.
- Managers have mixed views on regions like Japan, Europe, and property exposure. Bonds are largely held for safety over yield.
- The outlook discusses navigating uncertainty after Brexit through diversification. Unemployment rates suggest the UK economy remains stronger than Eurozone economies.
The portfolio manager provides a summary of market performance in 2012, an outlook for 2013, and commentary on portfolio strategy. Key points include: global markets gained over 10% in 2012 despite concerns over Europe and the US fiscal cliff; volatility is expected to continue in 2013 due to unresolved debt issues; the portfolio is diversified across regions and maintains an appropriate level of risk for clients through its asset allocation model.
This document discusses the global financial crisis that began in 2007-2008 and its impacts. It provides background on how the crisis started with the US housing market collapse and spread globally. It then summarizes recent news headlines reflecting ongoing issues and debates around global economic recovery efforts. Charts on international trade flows and GDP statistics by country are also presented.
OFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living Dangerouslybwoyat
- The document provides a quarterly commentary from OceanForest Investment Partners on market performance in Q4 2011 and their outlook.
- Key events from 2011 included political upheaval in North Africa/Middle East, natural disasters, and economic turmoil. The US stock market gained 1.99% while other markets declined.
- The portfolio managers expect more volatility globally in 2012. Their portfolios are positioned defensively with cash levels from 12-19% depending on the mandate. They remain focused on high-quality dividend-paying stocks.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
- Global stock markets rose strongly in the third quarter of 2010, with the S&P 500 experiencing its best September performance since 1939 due to gains in the telecommunications sector.
- Commodity prices also increased, with base metal prices leading gains, while bond markets were boosted by strong investor demand that pushed yields lower.
- By the end of the third quarter, fears of a slowdown in China's economy, a double-dip recession in the US, and the European sovereign debt crisis all subsided, helping fuel the stock market rebound.
Piet Viljoen presented a Moneyweb seminar in October 2011. He discussed various topics related to investing such as quotes from Warren Buffett and JK Galbraith about remaining calm during periods of market madness. He provided suggestions for asset allocation splits between South African and offshore assets with a higher allocation to equities in developed offshore markets. Viljoen also commented on the relative valuations of different geographic equity markets, noting that Japan appeared very cheap at that time while the US still had potential for further declines.
Moneyweb Investment Seminars - Peter Majormoneyweb
Volatility provides opportunities rather than representing risk alone. It allows multiple chances to gain from price movements by magnifying returns through leverage, though it also magnifies losses. While some assets like cash and bonds have relatively low historic volatility, equities and property have exhibited higher volatility but also higher long-term returns over periods of 20 years or more. Successful investing requires understanding how macroeconomic factors influence different asset classes in order to identify assets priced outside their norms and adjust allocations accordingly based on goals, rather than following the general market. Performance is the ultimate measure of an investment, not promises or explanations.
Moneyweb Investment Seminars - David Shapiromoneyweb
The document discusses the current state of the global economy and financial markets. It notes that while the light can be seen at the end of the tunnel, the global economy is still within it due to uncertainties persisting in developed economies like high unemployment and weak housing markets in the US. Emerging markets are forecasted to grow faster than advanced economies. The document also provides investment ideas and stock picks that may perform well in the difficult market environment.
Moneyweb Investment Seminars - Wayne McCurriemoneyweb
Portfolio construction involves balancing risk and return through diversification. The document discusses constructing portfolios using a combination of stocks to reduce overall risk compared to holding individual stocks. It provides examples showing how a portfolio with 50% allocation to two stocks achieves lower risk than either stock individually due to diversification. The document emphasizes diversifying across industries and stocks with low correlations to benefit from diversification and achieve more stable returns.
The document summarizes Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's advice on navigating the Great Recession from their annual shareholder meeting in 2009. Some key points they discussed include:
- Only buy when others are panicked during times of crisis, as Berkshire Hathaway is following Andrew Carnegie's playbook of investing to build businesses during downturns.
- Understand the durable competitive advantages of businesses and whether they will withstand downturns.
- Develop emotional stability and independent thinking to be a good long-term investor.
The document also reviews economic conditions and investment opportunities in developing markets like China, India, and South Africa compared to developed countries as they were seen to lead the
Report from WEF Davos 2009 - Presentation by Alec Hogg, Moneywebmoneyweb
The World Economic Forum is committed to improving the global state and holds annual meetings in Davos to set the year's economic agenda. The 2009 meeting saw record attendance from CEOs and government leaders. Speakers discussed the state of the global recession and opportunities emerging from the economic crisis, emphasizing the need for global collaboration on issues like climate change, infrastructure development, and renewable energy. While some leaders expressed optimism that the economic downturn would be temporary, others warned that the worst impact may still be coming and that significant financial sector reforms would be needed. Overall the forum called for a renewed spirit of global cooperation and shared values to guide the world's response.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
Confirmation of Payee (CoP) is a vital security measure adopted by financial institutions and payment service providers. Its core purpose is to confirm that the recipient’s name matches the information provided by the sender during a banking transaction, ensuring that funds are transferred to the correct payment account.
Confirmation of Payee was built to tackle the increasing numbers of APP Fraud and in the landscape of UK banking, the spectre of APP fraud looms large. In 2022, over £1.2 billion was stolen by fraudsters through authorised and unauthorised fraud, equivalent to more than £2,300 every minute. This statistic emphasises the urgent need for robust security measures like CoP. While over £1.2 billion was stolen through fraud in 2022, there was an eight per cent reduction compared to 2021 which highlights the positive outcomes obtained from the implementation of Confirmation of Payee. The number of fraud cases across the UK also decreased by four per cent to nearly three million cases during the same period; latest statistics from UK Finance.
In essence, Confirmation of Payee plays a pivotal role in digital banking, guaranteeing the flawless execution of banking transactions. It stands as a guardian against fraud and misallocation, demonstrating the commitment of financial institutions to safeguard their clients’ assets. The next time you engage in a banking transaction, remember the invaluable role of CoP in ensuring the security of your financial interests.
For more details, you can visit https://technoxander.com.
4. Major theme #1 Bank bashing Sarkozy leads the charge in his official opening address Implication Banking shares appear to be high risk investment right now, but…
5. Major theme #2 Rise of China Front and centre in every discussion; represented by rising star, Vice President Li Keqiang Implication Megatrend of power shift from West to East gaining momentum, aided by Crisis
6. Major theme #3 European problems mounting Greek President George Papandreou trying his best but massive gap in credibility exists Implication Ancient problems of waste, corruption, state crowding, poor competitiveness in spotlight; Major realignment of currencies
7. Major theme #4 Climate change Despite Copenhagen’s failure, political will created through voter concern at threat to mankind Implication Massive investment in alternatives to fossil fuels; realignment of costs to increase incentives for innovation
8. Major theme #5 African awakening Continent attracting serious interest as an investment destination; IMF forecasts it is the third growth story after China and India Verdict South Africa the continental gateway, but Chinese won’t be the only competition for local firms
10. Investment pointers Bank bashing to hurt ST but re-rate sector long-term China is re-writing rules for commoditised businesses West’s structural problems to cause revaluation of subsidy distorted assets and currencies; but also lead to much increased competition globally Climate change will unleash human potential to solve energy problems – challenge fossil fuel dominance
11. More info? Subscribe to Boardroom Talk via www.moneyweb.co.za Contact alec@moneyweb.co.za Follow daily updates via www.twitter/alechogg “Friend” me at www.facebook/alechogg Listen in nightly at 6pm on SAFM (104-107FM)
14. Navigating choppy waters: Staying the course through market uncertainty It is tempting for nervous investors to make short-term moves out of uncertain markets and plan to re-enter when things are calmer However, it is very difficult to time the moves out of and back into the market, and you could end up taking needless losses and missing out on significant gains
15. Navigating choppy waters: Staying the course through market uncertainty Investors sell at the bottom – When Bad News prevails And buy at the top – When Good News prevails Therefore essential to have some sort of guidance as to what to expect from markets Where we have been – where we are now – and where are we going to be in two years time
16. The Classic Investor Cycle MAXIMUM RISK This is the best thing I have ever done !! What a good choice I made !! FUND INFLOWS This is a really good investment EUPHORIA Don’t worry the market is consolidating THINGS CANT GET BETTER DOUBT Look at last years good return Temporary setback I am a long term investor ANXIETY EXCITEMENT Maybe I panicked ! DENIAL REVIVAL Why did I ever buy this ? FEAR OPTIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC MAXIMUM REWARD DOUBT DEPRESSION I really got bad advice Was it right to sell ?? THINGS CANT GET WORSE PANIC I will not do this again !! DESPONDENT MARKET CYCLE CAPITULATE DESPERATE I must get out. Cash is King FUND OUTFLOWS
17. Markets are NOT STUPID – THEY KNOW the existing news and circumstances Quite frankly – the market is not ALL THAT interested in the current news Markets are (basically) only interested in what is GOING TO HAPPEN, not what is actually happening Markets will discount future anticipated events That is why markets move sometimes contrary to expectations – They go up in bad time and down in good times. MARKETS MOVE ON THE DRUMBEATS OF TOMORROW HUMANS move on the drumbeats of yesterday and today
18. The Investment Clock Getting Guidance – “Road map” Markets and the economy ARE related (intricately) Therefore studying the economy and forecasting the future is VITAL in understanding markets MARKETS MOVE ON THE DRUMBEATS OF TOMORROW HUMANS move on the drumbeats of yesterday and today
19. Navigating choppy waters: The economic cycle PEAK SLOWDOWN BOTTOM RECOVERY MAXIMUM RISK GOOD NEWS STRONG GROWTH INFLATION LOW INTEREST RATES LOW THINGS CAN’T GET ANY BETTER START OF DOWN TURN INFLATION RISING INTEREST RATES RISING INFLATION MODERATING INTEREST RATES AT PEAK ECONOMY IN TROUBLE THINGS CAN’T GET ANY WORSE INFLATION FALLING INTEREST RATES DOWN GROWTH INPROVING MAXIMUM REWARD
20. The investment clock – the basic economic cycle Peak Expansion Slowdown Bottom 20
21. The investment clock – inflation and growth FallingInflationRising Peak Expansion FallingInflation Rising Slowdown Bottom FallingInflationRising 21
22. The investment clock – inflation and growth FallingInflationRising Peak Expansion FallingGrowthRising FallingGrowth Rising FallingGrowthRising Slowdown Bottom FallingInflationRising 22
23. The investment clock – asset returns FallingInflationRising Neutral Equity Peak Expansion Sell Sell Max Underweight Equity Max Overweight Equity FallingGrowthRising FallingGrowthRising Buy Buy Bottom Slowdown Neutral Equity FallingInflationRising 23
25. Inflation falling rising Overheat Recovery rising Growth falling Contraction Stagflation Average return during the relevant phase since 1960 Average annual asset class return since 1960 Investment clock – back-tested asset class returns since 1960 25
34. …instead Global equities recovered strongly since March 2009 MSCI World Index (in US$) (1133.3) The MSCI World gained 31% in 2009 and the MSCI EM gained a record 79%. Source: I-Net Bridge
35. The US market has recovered astonishingly quickly….. Source: Macquarie Research; Quarterly Strategy, 27 January 2010
36. 2009 highlights Central banks and governments threw money at the credit crisis Governments increased spending Governments cut taxes and provided subsidies for the purchase of houses, cars and household appliances Central banks bought government bonds (Quantitative Easing) Source: Slate; Plexus Asset Management
37. 2009 highlights China helped pull the rest of the world out of recession GDP growth “recovered” from 6.1% in the 1st quarter to 10.7% in the 4th quarter and is forecast to grow 9.4% in 2010 China overtook Germany to be the world’s largest exporter China overtook the US to become the world's largest car market Source: JP Morgan
38. 2009 highlights The global recession ended in the 3rd quarter The recession in the developed world ended in the 3rd quarter but unemployment remains high at 9.7% in the US, 10.0% in Europe and 24.3% in SA Source: Plexus Asset Management
39. 2009 highlights The dollar came under pressure The dollar weakened on declining risk aversion and a resumption of the carry trade as the Fed drove rates down to 0.25% Commodities rallied with the oil price doubling and the gold price hitting a new high of $1220 Commodity currencies also benefitted with the Brazillian Real up 33%, the Rand up 28%, the Aussie Dollar up 24% and the Norwegian Krone up 20% Source: Appraisal News Online, Plexus Asset Management
40. Commodity fund flow - December 2009 Cumulative inflows by year US$ billions Source: JPMorgan and Bloomberg
41. ... but copper looks vulnerable to rising inventories Source: Citigroup Global Markets; 8 January 2010
44. No surprises here - the market has leaped upward! The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (in ZAR) (26764.6) The JSE rose more than 100% in US$ since the beginning of March 2009 to December 2009 -45.4% 47.4% Source: I-Net Bridge
45. So we better see some earnings come through! Trailing PE: 17.4x EPS-growth: 30%* Forward PE: 13.4x Exit PE 14.5x Expected Return: 12% (3% DY) SA Equities: Earnings GrowthSince 1960 to end February 2010, Rolling 12-month %-change * I-Net consensus Source: I-Net Bridge
46. Markets can go sideways for an extended period Dow Jones: 1975 to 1982
47. Increased volatility offers opportunities for stock pickers Dow Jones: 1975 to 1982 Cum.% p.a. % Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway 676% 34% Sequoia Fund (Bill Ruane) 415% 28%
48. Increased volatility offers opportunities for stock picking Number of Doubles or Greater Over Rolling One-Year Period (Top 500 Companies) Number of Doubles or Greater Over Rolling Three-Year Periods (Top 500 Companies) Number of Doubles or Greater Over Rolling Three-Year Periods (Top 500 Companies) Source: Empirical Research Partners, Legg Mason Capital Management
49. Discovery Equity FundTop 10 Equity Holdings (% of fund) ….the fund is VERY DIFFERENT to the market and the average fund
50. Discovery Equity Fund Cumulative performance as at 31 January 2010 Source: Morningstar Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income reinvested.
51.
52. Summary – steadily shifting back into cautious mode “The central principle of investment is to go contrary to the general opinion” JM Keynes We anticipate a great environment for stock picking We are buying quality and under-valued laggards We are attracted to stocks with resilient, depressed or below average profit margins We remain underweight Resources (except for paper, gold, energy and a fledgling position in steel) We are positioning for Rand weakness and are most attracted to non-commodity Rand hedges We remain concerned about the current momentum Risk-premia across a variety of stocks and asset classes are way too low and investors should be more discerning from this point forward Equities should outperform bonds and cash. However, on a prospective basis, the return for equities could prove disappointing relative to current expectations
53. Equity markets almost always peak when rates are low, so moving in desperation away from low rates into substantially overpriced equities always ends badly Jeremy Grantham
55. Disclaimer All information and opinions provided are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. No one should act upon such information or opinion without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of a particular situation. We endeavour to provide accurate and timely information but we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the correctness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions. We do not undertake to update, modify or amend the information on a frequent basis or to advise any person if such information subsequently becomes inaccurate. Any representation or opinion is provided for information purposes only. Investec Asset Management will not be held liable or responsible for any direct or consequential loss or damage suffered by any party as a result of that party acting on or failing to act on the basis of the information provided by or omitted from this document. This document may not be amended, reproduced, distributed or published without the prior written consent of Investec Asset Management. In the event that specific collective investment schemes in securities (unit trusts) are mentioned please refer to the relevant fact sheet in order to obtain all the necessary information in regard to that unit trust. Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long-term investments. The value of participatory interests may go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. CIS are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from the company/scheme. Commission and incentives may be paid and if so, would be included in the overall costs. Forward pricing is used. Certain Investec Asset Management funds are offered as long-term insurance policies issued by Investec Assurance Limited, a registered insurer in terms of the Long-term Insurance Act. Investec Asset Management is an authorised financial services provider.