NewBase 26 January 2024 Energy News issue - 1693 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed.pdf

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NewBase Energy News 26 January 2024 No. 1693 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: Veolia, TotalEnergies to launch major recycling initiative
TradeArabia News Service + NewBase
In a significant step towards boosting recycling capacities of the country, French utility major Veolia
has forged a new partnership with TotalEnergies Marketing Middle East (TEMME), a unit of global
multi-energy company TotalEnergies, to launch its new recycling initiative in UAE.
For the key sustainability initiative, Veolia will be deploying its digital recycling solution Recapp in
bid to help TotalEnergies optimize its end-of-life product recovery and recycling process at its TMME
service centres, thus enabling the company to contribute positively to the environment.
This collaborative effort will involve recycling of over 40,000 lubricant containers per year through
shredding with oil containment separation process, followed by processing, grinding and
transforming them into recycled High Density Polyethylene (rHDPE) recycled plastics, ready as
secondary raw material produced by eCyclex - a Dubai Municipality approved recycling facility.
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

This initiative is first-of-its-kind in the automotive industry and aligns with TotalEnergies’ sustainable
development approach, it stated.
According to Veolia, it is a pilot project, with plans to extend the concept to a larger array of service
centres in the future.
It contributes to global efforts on transformation toward circularity and closing the plastic loop. In
particular, it contributes to UAE's efforts to curb plastic pollution. UAE recently launched an
integrated program to monitor plastic waste in the marine and coastal environment of the country,
and shall be imposing a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags starting January 2024.
Jérôme Viricel, General Manager of Recapp at Veolia Near & Middle East, said: "We are thrilled to
formalise this important partnership and launch our new recycling initiative. While utilizing Recaap's
years of expertise in the field, the initiative will further promote the recyclability of empty plastic
lubricant containers sold by TotalEnergies' service center partners by helping to divert these
containers from landfills and repurpose them in a new way, boosting broader recycling initiatives in
the country."
"It’s an important step towards promoting sustainable practices and addressing environmental
challenges in the UAE, particularly as the country observed 2023 as the Year of Sustainability and
hosted COP28 two months ago," he stated.
Thomas Vigneron, Managing Director at TotalEnergies Marketing Middle East, said: "As a
responsible multi-energy company, TotalEnergies continuously strives to encourage the adoption
of responsible waste management practices."
"With Recapp, TotalEnergies aims to work with our network of service centers to promote a circular
economy for plastics, optimize waste management in the region and align with the UAE Circular
Economy Policy 2021 – 2031," he added.

Bharain’s Alba inks 10-year gas supply deal with Bapco Energies
Staff Writer, TradeArabia
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), one of the largest smelters in the world, today (January 23) signed a 10-
year gas supply agreement with Bapco Upstream, a fully owned subsidiary of Bapco Energies, the
integrated energy company leading the energy transition in the kingdom.
A blue-chip asset of the Kingdom of Bahrain, Alba produces high-quality aluminium products and
boasts a 1.62 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) production capacity.
It has more than 50 years of excellence in Operations, Safety, Environment and Socio-Economic
Development. "Securing a 10-year natural gas supply agreement marks a significant chapter for
Alba", said Khalid Al Rumaihi, the Chairman of the Alba Board at the signing ceremony held at Al
Dana Hall.
It was attended by Alba’s Chairman Khalid Al Rumaihi, Bapco Upstream’s Chairman Engineer
Faisal Al Mahroos, Alba’s CEO, Ali Al Baqali, Bapco Upstream’s CEO Johann Pleininger and other
Alba officials. This agreement supersedes all previous agreements and serves as a continuation
of Alba's current natural gas requirements under one contract, stated Al Rumaihi.
Adding further to mark this milestone, Al Rumaihi said: "Five years of stable gas price are just the
foundation. This partnership with Bapco Energies lays the groundwork for a future where
collaboration and transparency will fuel our sustainable growth."
Another key highlight of this agreement is the fixed price structure for the first 5-year period at $4
per million British thermal units (MMBTU) post which the price will be determined by the Competent
Authority, he added.
the fixed price structure for the first 5-year period at $4 per million
British thermal units (MMBTU)

Qatar Ordering World’s Largest LNG Carriers from China
BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE
QatarEnergy is reported to be moving forward with the expansion plans for the LNG carrier fleet
with an agreement reached for the construction of the world’s largest carriers. According to reports
from China, Hudong-Zhonhua Shipbuilding has reached terms with Qatar for eight of its QMAX
designs.
China is reporting that the deal will involve eight of the massive carriers with a capacity to transport
271,000 cbm. Confirmation of the contract and full details were not provided but it is believed the
ships would be delivered in 2028 and 2029 using a new design developed by the divisions of China
State Shipbuilding Corporation.
Hudong-Zhonhua Shipbuilding released details on its design last fall reporting the ships would have
the same overall dimensions as the current largest ships but an increased carry capacity. By
keeping the vessel at 1,128 feet (344 meters) in length, the yard highlighted that it would be able to
dock at more than 70 terminals around the world.
Qatar has been rumored to be wanting to add several of the giant carriers to its overall fleet
expansion program. The majority of the vessels in the program so far have been the standard size
of 179,000 cbm.
In addition to the eight mega-sized vessels to be built in China, reports are a second tranche will
be ordered in South Korea. Qatar has been splitting its orders between China and Korea as part of
an overall program started in 2020 that reserved spots for up to approximately 100 new ships.
The contract would be an extension of a relationship between Qatar and CSSC. The Hudong-
Zhonhua yard already has orders for a dozen LNG carriers tied to Qatar.

Chinese media highlights a large order backlog at the yard and the all-out effort to build LNG
carriers. Historically, China has been a distance second to the Korean shipyard as a builder of LNG
carriers.
There is no word yet on who the charterer or operator would be for these giant vessels. Qatar
currently has agreements with many leading shipping companies including Mitsui, NYK, K Line, and
MISC. While most of the current vessels are standard size, Qatar starting in 2008 also introduced
a total of 14 of the larger QMax carriers. The largest of the current carriers by comparison has a
capacity of 266,000 cbm.
Earlier this week, Qatar's LNG transport operator, Nakilat, reported that it had ordered two standard-
sized LNG carriers and four very large ammonia/LPG carriers from South Korea’s HD Hyundai
Industries. It expanded on the 17 LNG carriers already on order at Hyundai tied to Qatar.
Additional orders have been expected but reports in the Korean media said the talks with both
Samsung Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean have become bogged down over price.
All the orders are timed to coincide with Qatar’s expansion with the development of the massive
North Field. When the new region goes online, it will be the largest LNG field in the world. Qatar has
said between 2025 and 2027 it will ramp production to 126 million tonnes per annum (mpta) up from
the current 77 mpta.
Qatar looks to secure its position as the largest exporter of LNG. Last year, the U.S. held the
leadership passing Australia and while U.S. production is expanding it will not be able to keep pace
with Qatar.

U.S: World’s First Ethanol-to-Sustainable Jet Fuel Plant Opens
SOURCE LanzaJet
LanzaJet, a leading sustainable fuels technology company and sustainable fuels producer, today
joined government officials, industry leaders, partners, and supporters to open LanzaJet
Freedom Pines Fuels, the world's first ethanol to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production facility.
LanzaJet's technology is recognized as the pioneering ethanol to SAF production process and
pathway. This ethanol-based technology is the world's first viable next-generation SAF
technology capable of scaling production to the levels needed to decarbonize aviation through
widely available and sustainable feedstock, emerging commercial waste-based feedstock
solutions, and promising economic conditions.
Located in Soperton, Georgia, LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels represents one of the most
promising SAF technologies in nearly a decade to reach commercial readiness, and will produce
10 million gallons of SAF and renewable diesel per year from low carbon, sustainable, and
certified ethanol which meets U.S. and global standards.
LanzaJet's technology enables current and future supply volume to support a scaled SAF industry
as well as the White House's SAF Grand Challenge, which calls for a supply of at least 3 billion
gallons of SAF annually by 2030 to tangibly reduce aviation emissions.
With its proprietary ethanol to SAF technology, LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels serves as a
blueprint for utilizing first-of-its-kind innovation to scale SAF production and combat the
worsening climate crisis.
LanzaJet's Freedom Pines Fuels plant represents the culmination of a history of firsts within the
SAF industry, dating back to its origin in 2010 as the first ethanol to SAF technology to have

derived in collaboration with the Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL). The technology's first
commercial flights were completed with Virgin Atlantic and All Nippon Airways (ANA) in 2018 and
2019, respectively.
"Today is testament to the conviction required by industry, government, and funders to advance
innovation and stretch the boundaries of what is achievable to address decarbonization and
tackle climate change.
This is a historic milestone in a long history of firsts for LanzaJet, the United States, and the SAF
industry globally," said LanzaJet CEO Jimmy Samartzis. "Our novel LanzaJet ethanol to SAF
process technology is now deployed at our commercial plant in Georgia which will convert
ethanol into drop-in SAF.
As we start-up the plant, we will continue to refine our technology, while launching our efforts to
advance new sustainable fuels projects globally. Between feedstock versatility, efficiency, and
economics that enable scale in the US and globally, we stand ready to meet aviation's
decarbonization goals established at the United Nations and country ambitions, such as the U.S.
SAF Grand Challenge."
LanzaJet was joined at Wednesday's event by U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, U.S.
Deputy Secretary of Energy David Turk, Georgia Public Service Commissioner Tim
Echols, Treutlen County Commissioner Phil Jennings, and Soperton Mayor John Koon.
"The Biden-Harris Administration is committed to harnessing the full potential of SAF as we
continue to build a strong economy that is sustainable, resilient, competitive, and keeps rural
places thriving," said U.S.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. "As we transition to SAF, this will not only create new climate
smart commodity markets for American producers, but it will also help American companies such
as LanzaJet corner the market of a valuable, emerging industry, while revitalizing rural

communities like Soperton with agriculture front and center in the effort. LanzaJet's facility will
help accelerate the SAF industry and provide new economic opportunities for producers for a
more sustainable future."
Additionally, the opening of Freedom Pines Fuels also featured LanzaJet shareholders
International Airlines Group (IAG), LanzaTech, Mitsui & Co, Shell, and Suncor Energy and
investors such as the Microsoft Climate Innovation Fund, Breakthrough Energy, British Airways,
and All Nippon Airways (ANA).
"LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels is proof of the energy transition accelerating in real time,"
said Jennifer Holmgren, LanzaJet Board Director and Chief Executive of LanzaTech. "We are
demonstrating the ability to establish secure supply chains domestically, create new jobs locally,
and produce sustainable aviation fuel globally. This historic facility is an important pillar of a
growing SAF economy in the United States and is a significant decarbonization milestone in the
world."
The SAF produced by LanzaJet in Soperton, Georgia will be used immediately as drop-in fuel for
existing aircraft in an aviation industry, which contributes two to three percent of all global
greenhouse gas emissions from humans.
The technology used at LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels will reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by more than 70 percent and produced from a variety of sustainable feedstocks, such as
agricultural waste, municipal solid waste, energy crops, carbon captured from industrial
processes, and more.
LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels is fully funded and has committed offtake agreements for all fuel
produced in the next 10 years. Located in Treutlen County, Georgia and less than 100 miles from
Savannah, the facility will have created more than 250 total jobs and generate an estimated $70
million in annual economic activity for the local economy.

U.S. monthly N.Gas production set a new record in Dec. 2023
Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
U.S. dry natural gas production in the Lower 48 states reached an all-time monthly high of 105.5
billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in December 2023, according to data from S&P Global Commodity
Insights.
In 2023, Lower 48 dry natural gas production increased 3.7% (3.6 Bcf/d) from 2022. Dry natural gas
production increased 3.8 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter of 2023 (4Q23) compared with the average for
the first three quarters of 2023.
The Appalachia region, the Permian region, and the Anadarko region combined accounted for 89%
of the increased production in the Lower 48 states.
Production in the Appalachia region, the largest natural gas-producing region in the United States,
increased by an average of 1.5 Bcf/d in 4Q23 compared with September, helped by the expansion
of natural gas transportation capacity from the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Continued increases in crude oil and associated natural gas production in the Permian region—the
second-largest natural gas-producing region in the United States—grew its natural gas production
by 1.2 Bcf/d in 4Q23 compared with September. Production in the Anadarko region in Oklahoma
rose from recent summer lows, increasing by 0.7 Bcf/d in the same months.

Despite recent increases in Lower 48 dry natural gas production and the overall record-high annual
production average of 102.2 Bcf/d in 2023, production grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022. The
annual growth rate in Lower 48 dry natural gas production was 5.3% (4.9 Bcf/d) in 2022, compared
with 3.7% (3.6 Bcf/d) in 2023, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

NewBase January 26 -2024 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil prices steady Brent above $82 line ; set to post weekly gains
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices eased in early trading on Friday, but were set to close higher for the week on positive
economic data from the United States and China and a draw in U.S. crude stocks.
Brent crude futures eased 19 cents, or 0.23%, to $82.124a barrel by 01:15 GMT. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude fell 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $77.03. The Brent benchmark was set to close 4.5%
higher for the week, while the U.S. benchmark was set to rise 4.8%. Both were on track for their
second straight week of gains.
Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red
Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, sources said, in a
move that helped ease worries of potential supply disruption.
The Houthis would continue targeting ships linked to Israel until aid reaches the Palestinian people
in Gaza, the group's leader said on Thursday.
Oil price special
coverage

Boosting prices for the week, however, were a larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories,
strong economic data from the United States and China, and worries of supply disruption after a
Ukrainian drone attack on an oil refinery in southern Russia this week.
U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 9.2 million barrels after winter weather hit crude production, the
Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
On the demand side, supporting prices this week, data showed that the U.S. economy grew more
quickly than expected in the fourth quarter and China announced a deep cut to bank reserves to
spur growth.
Traders also piled on bets that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates from April as they
took the view that policymakers are growing more comfortable with the inflation outlook. Lower
borrowing costs can boost economic growth and oil demand.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –January 26 -2024
CLEAN ENERGY
Gas and LNG: global and regional predictions for 2024 -
Wood Mackenzie
Source: Wood Mackenzie
The global gas and LNG market rebalanced in 2023 – perhaps more than many expected. What
key themes will define 2024? And how will regional dynamics differ?
The global gas and LNG industry has faced unprecedented challenges in the wake of Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine. But, after many twists and turns, the market rebalanced throughout 2023.
Weak demand has been the biggest driver, further depressed by benign weather dynamics.
European gas demand dropped 7%, while the rebound in Asian LNG demand was weaker than
many expected.
But momentum for LNG investments and contracting activity remains strong as players continue to
position for a market with limited Russian gas to Europe and increasing Asian LNG demand.
So, what does 2024 hold for the global gas and LNG industry? Will it be another disappointing year
for demand? What’s the outlook for prices? Is an LNG shipping oversupply on the cards? Can
investments in new LNG projects hold their pace – and who will be driving the deals?
We tackle these questions and more in Global gas and LNG: 5 things to look out for in 2024. Drawing
on unique insight from Lens Gas & LNG, we explore the themes we'll be watching closely – and
offer some predictions for the year ahead:
 Gas/LNG prices to soften further, but volatility set to remain
 Global gas demand growth to remain limited
 Spot charter rates will soften, but risks remain – expect volatility
 LNG contracting and FID activity to ease
 Pace of energy transition will face challenges, providing risk to Asian LNG demand growth
potential.
he global gas and LNG market has rebalanced throughout 2023, perhaps more than many would have anticipated. Weak
demand has been the biggest driver, further depressed by benign weather dynamics. But momentum for LNG investments
andcontracting activity has remained strong as players continue to position for a market with limited Russian gas to Europe
and increasing Asian LNG demand.
What does 2024 hold for the global gas and LNG industry? In this insight we highlight 5 things
we'll be watching closely – andoffer our predictions.

1) Gas/LNG prices to soften further, but volatility set to remain
Market sentiment has turned bearish. Risks to supply disruption across Norway, Algeria and
Egypt are seemingly gone. Storagelevels are at record highs across Europe and Asia, also
because of a mild start to winter. The TTF contract for delivery in February has dropped around
45% in the past
3 months and now trades close to Euro 30 MWh (or US$10/mmbtu). Will the bearish sentiment
continue in 2024? And is volatility going to reduce?
We’ve been forecasting lower 2024 prices for much of this year, especially compared to forward
curves. Global LNG supply growth will remain limited (14 Mt) but with Asian LNG demand still
weak, competition for LNG is unlikely to heat up. Subdued European demand and higher
Norwegian and Algerian production mean the European balance should be in a relatively
comfortable position throughout 2024. Our view is that storage levels could end up at around
50% by the end of March and reach levels in excess of 95% by the end of October. Summer
2024 might look much like the oversupplied summer the marketwent through this year.
However, many risks remain. Despite most meteorologists forecasting a warm winter, cold
spells could yet materialize, and these would pull gas from storage and send prices higher.
Russian pipeline and LNG imports could yet be banned, or curtailed,resulting in Europe having
to compete for more LNG. And supply disruptions globally, or just the risk of them, will continue
to have disproportionate effects on prices. The global gas and LNG market is in a seemingly
comfortable balance, but supply availability remains limited. Expect continued volatility
throughout 2024 and beyond.
2) lobal gas demand growth to remain limited
2023 has been another difficult year for gas demand in Europe and Asia. European gas demand
dropped 7%, following a 12% drop in 2022. The anticipated rebound in Asian LNG demand has
been weaker than many expected, with total LNG demand still15 Mt, or 6%, lower than the levels
reached in 2021. Is 2024 set to be another disappointing year for gas and LNG demand?
Quite possibly. The economic outlook for Europe is expected to improve and this should
support to gas demand by adding momentum to the somewhat timid rebound recently seen in
industrial demand. Under normal weather conditions gas demandfor heating should be higher
too, considering both last winter and this winter (so far) have been warmer than average. But
weexpect gas demand into power to decline, as nuclear production in France will continue
recovering and renewable supply will grow by more than 100 TWh. Our view is that European
gas demand will remain relatively flat.

It’s a different story for Asia, where LNG demand is expected to continue growing, but it remains
unlikely demand will reach levels achieved in 2021. Nuclear production will continue to ramp up
in Japan and South Korea, resulting in demand recoveringonly 3 Mt of the 8 Mt reduction seen
this year and subject to normal weather conditions. China LNG demand growth will remain
constrained by growth in domestic production and pipe imports from Russia. While relatively
high prices will continue to limit LNG demand growth across South and Southeast Asia. Our
view is that Asian LNG demand will grow by 12.5 Mt, or 5% compared to 2023, but 2024 demand
will still be almost 3 Mt lower than levels in 2021.
Economic performance and weather dynamics will obviously be key to gas demand, providing
both upside and downside risksto our view. Demand elasticity to prices will also be important,
particularly the attitude of European households to use heating and the appetite of Asian buyers
to import LNG as spot prices remain relatively high. But overall, the risk to gas demand for
2024 is lower compared to what the market has had to deal with in the past two years.
Prediction: European gas demand to remain flat. Asian LNG demand to increase by 5%.
3) Spot charter rates will soften, but risks remain – expect volatility
2023 has been another roller-coaster year for spot LNG freight rates. Prices for standard Tri-
Fuel Diesel Electric (TFDE) carriers have ranged from the US$34,000/day in summer to
US$166,000/day in October, averaging around US$90,000/day for the year.Meanwhile, freight
rates for newer Two-Stroke carriers have averaged US$122,000/day, well above the
US$87,000/day required to build new ships.
However, with 60 LNG carriers scheduled to be added to the fleet in 2024 – more than ever
before – is the shipping marketabout to turn into oversupply?
On the face of it, yes - the orderbook presents a bearish outlook for spot rates in 2024. Altogether,
the 60 new vessels equate to
10.4 million m3 of LNG shipping capacity, sufficient to move 54 mmtpa of LNG between the
US Gulf Coast and Europe. Therewill be limited organic LNG supply growth and the bulk of US
LNG it’s still expected to be routed to Europe, rather than Asia, limiting demand for shipping.
But several other factors will influence how the shipping market will balance through 2024,
making forecasting charter rates more complex. These include the timing of LNG supply
growth, restrictions at the Panama Canal and how players will optimisetheir fleet.

Growth in both LNG supply and shipping is weighted to the second half of the year. We
forecast 30 mmtpa of new supply capacity will be added in 2024, but we hold a risked view
on when these projects start up and how quickly they ramp up, meaning we only forecast year
on year LNG supply growth of 14 Mt. Our supply view includes the first train at Arctic LNG -
2,Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3, while latest guidance on
Golden Pass now suggests an H1 25 start. If export projects hit their delivery milestones and
supply surprises to the upside, demand for shipping would also be higher.
Utilization of the Panama Canal will also play a pivotal role. A key passageway for US-Asia LNG
trade, transits through the Canal have reduced sharply in response to drought-enforced
restrictions. We anticipate Asian LNG demand to grow by 12.5 Mtin 2024, meaning that much
of the new US LNG addition will likely be going to Asia, adding to shipping demand. And if Canal
restrictions extend deep into 2024, shipping demand would further increase as US offtakers will
be faced with the question: riskdelays or congestions at the Panama Canal, or deliver into Asia
via a longer (and more expensive) route through the Cape of Good Hope? The extent of
continued restrictions at Panama Canal will be a key factor defining shipping market dynamics
in 2024.
Finally, fleet optimisation. Floating storage has been a feature of the market in recent years, as
players have defered deliveriesof cargoes to capitalise on the contango emerging at the end of
the summer – amplified by the winter risk premium (driven by limited LNG supply availability).
Floating storage has constrained ship availability, driving spot charter rate peaks. The duration
and materiality of LNG (and European) spot price contango in Q3 2024 will be a key dynamic
influencing how the shipping market will balance.
Spot charter rates are expected to soften in 2024, but risks remain that could yet support
prices, as recent concerns aroundtransits via the Suez Canal suggest. Expect continued
volatility.
Prediction: Spot charter rate for TFDE carriers to average US$80,000/day in 2024
4) LNG contracting and FID activity to ease
2023 has been another strong year for LNG contracting activity and LNG projects FIDs. More
than 60 mmtpa of binding dealshave been signed year to date, just short of the record 70
mmtpa signed in the previous year. And 54 mmtpa of new LNG project capacity has been
sanctioned (including Qatar’s North Field South Project which awarded EPC but has not
formally announced FID). Will momentum continue into 2024?

Portfolio players have been the major driver of LNG activity over the two past years, signing
72 mmpta of long-term contracts.But with the Qatari equity deals now finalised and with only
one US LNG deal signed by a Major in 2023, portfolio players will likely feel comfortable with
their positions and be more selective in building their portfolio further.
Activity from end-users is expected to ease too. Contracting activity from Chinese buyers has
already slowed down, following the spree of contracts signed in 2021 and 2022 from the US and
Qatar. And while we expect some European buyers to sign up for more LNG, significant
European contracting is unlikely. Meanwhile, South Korean buyers have signalled they are
happy withtheir medium-term spot exposure and are unlikely to be in the market for new long-
term contracts.
But some buyers might take a more opportunistic approach. Low Henry Hub prices could push
US independent players to seekmore exposure to global LNG prices by taking long-term LNG
capacity positions. Japanese buyers may look to replace some expiring contracts. And we might
see more activity from emerging Asian buyers, particularly in Thailand and India, if contract
prices soften – although much more activity will have to wait until the contracting market loosens
further. Our expectation is thatoverall contracting activity will soften in 2024 compared to the
huge number of deals we saw signed in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Investments in new LNG projects are also set to slow down. With 200 mmtpa of LNG currently
under construction a consensusis emerging that the market is now well supplied in the second
half of the decade. But some projects still look well positioned togo ahead in 2024. In North
America, some projects are well advanced in their marketing activity, including Saguaro Energia
Phase 1, Corpus Christi Mid-Scale Trains 8&9, the first phase at CP2 LNG and one or two of
the Delfin FLNG vessels. Key to watch here will be decisions by the Department of Energy on
the granting of new or extensions of non-FTA export licences, thesubject of recent lobbying by
European and Asian buyers. A backlog has recently built up and the pace at which future
licenceswill be granted is becoming unclear.
Elsewhere, Papua LNG and the Coral Norte FLNG in Mozambique also continue to make
progress as their sponsors look to beef up their portfolios with LNG supply close to Asian
markets. We also expect development of Eni’s recently discovered GengNorth field, which will
backfill Bontang, to move forward quickly. But overall, the outlook for FIDs looks less promising
than in 2023.

Predictions:
Contracting activity: less than 40 mmtpa of long-term binding deals
Project FIDs: less than 30 mmtpa
5) Pace of energy transition will face challenges, providing risk
to AsianLNG demand growth potential
Those who have been looking at COP28 for signposts to understand the role that gas could play
in the energy transition will feelconfused. On the one hand, COP28 will be remembered for
governments’ agreement to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in
energy systems”, including gas. On the other hand, the final agreement makes reference to the
role of “transitional fuels” in facilitating the shift to lower-carbon technologies while ensuring
energy security – which many have interpreted as a reference togas. How will policymakers
interpret the outcome of COP28 and what will it mean for future gas demand?
Beyond the compromise on the wording reached in Dubai and the seemingly renewed focus on
sustainability, governments willcontinue to prioritize security of supply and affordability as they
set up policies throughout 2024. This will take different shape and forms across different regions
as governments strive to find a balance within the Energy Trilemma. And will have different
implications for future gas demand.
In Europe, which has been at the forefront of low carbon policies, affordability is becoming
increasingly important as growing public awareness of the costs of low-carbon technologies
(e.g., heat pumps) has entered the political debate. Some governments have already scaled
back subsidies for low-carbon technologies and energy efficiencies (i.e., Germany and Italy)
while others have revised targets to ban gas boilers (i.e., UK, France and the Netherlands). The
outcome of the European Parliament elections in June 2024 will be a key marker to understand
the pace at which the European Commission and memberstates will be pushing the energy
transition agenda. RePowerEU, the flagship EU policy to achieve decarbonization targets and
reduce dependency on Russian gas, has been seen by many as overly ambitious. Expect a
softening on some of the targets, providing more longevity to gas demand.
Affordability and security of supply will also be at the forefront of policies across Asia, particularly
in emerging markets where growth in energy availability is key to support economic growth. But,
unlike for Europe, this might be detrimental for the perspective of gas demand growth. This is
because many emerging markets in Asia continue to rely on coal, which is cheaper than gas
and often available domestically. It is only through an increased focus on sustainability and the

development of policiesthat support gas and renewable at the expenses of coal, that gas can
unlock its full growth potential in these markets. This will require the implementation of carbon
taxes and/or outright restrictions on coal generation. But gas/LNG prices might have to fallfurther
for carbon policies to be adopted in Asia, as governments remain concerned about the cost that
these policies could have on consumers and economic growth potential.

NewBase Energy News 26-January - Issue No. 1693 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
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About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

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