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NewBase Energy News 23 August 2016 - Issue No. 913 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Qatar: Next phase of $2bn power project soon
© The Peninsula 2016 = Mohammad Shoeb
The next phase of Qatar's mega power transmission and distribution project is expected to
start in the current quarter of this year. The estimated $2bn worth project 'Qatar Power
Transmission System Expansion-Phase 13' is scheduled to be completed by the fourth quarter of
2018, a latest report on GCC's power sector revealed.
Qatar, as part of its long-term investment plans for revamping and expanding its power
sector, has earmarked over $10bn, which includes projects in all stages including those
on hold but likely to be activated soon.
Given the sharp growth in population (mainly due to influx of foreign workers), Qatar is
witnessing significant growth in the demand for utilities. The country's peak demand of
electricity in 2015 was about 7,000 megawatt (MW) of electricity and 330 million
gallons per day of water, which is expected to grow by 6-8 percent.
And Qatar is yet to witness the all-time peak demand of utilities in the run-up to the
2020 FIFA games preparations. The Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC),
country's main producer of utilities, is much ahead enhancing the installed capacity
which is always maintaining big surplus than the actual peak demand.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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With the completion of ongoing projects, including the Umm Al Houl plant, the
estimated installed capacity is expected to exceed about 11,000 MW of electricity and
490 MIGD of water by the end of 2018.
When it comes to the combined level of investments of all the GCC countries put
together, the power sector of all the six-member states will require about $50bn of
investment in new power generating capacity, noted the report on GCC Power Market
Overview by Ventures Onsite for Middle East Electricity.
The GCC is expected to add 76.8 gigawatts (GW) of capacity for power generation
between 2016 and 2020, according to Pan-Arab energy investment bank Apicorp
estimates.
The region's electricity consumption is expected to reach 856 terawatt-hours by 2020,
requiring 100 GW of additional power over the next 10 years to meet the demand,
noted the report, citing data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Strong economic and demographic growth in GCC economies such as highly energy-
intensive industrialisation programmes, special economic zones, industrial parks and
warehousing complexes are expected to drive a dramatic surge in power consumption
in these countries, including Qatar. As the demand increases, the GCC countries are
also experiencing significant requirements for power sector infrastructure development.
The GCC countries have collaborated in developing a joint Gulf power grid, to develop
the region's electricity network and also help unify the six countries. The grid has
already led to savings of $3bn in investments, in addition to a savings of $330m of
operating costs and fuel, according to the GCC Interconnection Authority.
The total value of GCC power projects is estimated to be worth $247bn (as of February
7, 2016). Saudi Arabia registered the highest project value among the GCC countries
worth $118bn followed by the UAE and Kuwait, noted the report.
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Iraq ships out third cargo of condensate, 20,000CM from Basrah Gas
Dubai (Platts)--23 May 2016 909 am EDT/1309 GMT
Iraq has exported a new cargo of plant condensate, the third in the two months after the first
export of 10,000 cubic meters on March 20, as it continues its efforts to deliver regular volumes to
global markets, the oil ministry said Sunday.
The 20,000 cu m shipment was exported from the Umm Qasr port in the Persian Gulf, Ahmed
Younis, undersecretary for gas in the ministry, said in a statement Sunday. A second shipment of
10,500 cu m was sold March 30. The latest cargo came from the Shell-led consortium, Basrah
Gas Co., though he did reveal the destination or buyer.
The first two cargoes were shipped to the UAE port of Fujairah, and sources with knowledge of
the matter said the sales were made on a differential to the Mean of Platts Arab Gulf Naphtha
assessments.
The condensates were from associated gas treatment by Basrah Gas, which was established in
2012 to capture and utilize flared gas from the Rumaila, Zubair and West Qurna 1 oil fields for use
in power plants and industrial plants and for export.
The oil ministry has earlier put Iraq's gas processing capacity at 1,100 MMcf/d, which can fully
meet the country's domestic demand. More capacity is being added by Basrah Gas, however,
which will allow more regular supplies to global markets.
Meanwhile, Iraq's LPG production is currently 5,000 mt/day and it plans to start exporting by the
end of this year as it increases its gas processing capacity.
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Qatar:Nakilat upgrades satellite coms for LNG, LPG carriers
Gul Times
Nakilat, the shipping arm of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas sector, has entered into a contract with
Global Eagle Entertainment’s Emerging Markets Communications (EMC) service line to provide
marine VSAT services for its fleet of liqu efied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas
(LPG) carriers.
Under the contract, EMC
will supply global Ku-band
VSAT connectivity and
content to enable a range
of Internet, data, and
voice services for the
vessels and crew.
The installations were
completed recently on
eight Nakilat vessels,
which will ensure
continuous connectivity
for their ships sailing
global routes. The
onboard satellite
communication suite
includes a high-quality
voice-over-IP system for
the corporate network, lowering the costs of voice calls over the satellites. The crew welfare
system provides always-on Internet connectivity to communicate with family and friends at home.
Nakilat administration director Rashid Hamad al-Marri said: “We are delighted to sign this
agreement with EMC, which will significantly contribute to the development of the communication
systems’ infrastructure and facilitate Nakilat’s maritime operations. As the owner of one of the
largest LNG fleets in the world, staying connected while at sea is essential for Nakilat’s global
operations.
“By utilising EMC’s VSAT technology, we are able to ensure real-time information is accessible
and that our personnel can stay in touch with their families during the vessel’s voyage while at the
same time, realise cost savings for the company.”
Gilles Gillesen, president of EMC’s commercial shipping business unit, said: “We are honoured
that Nakilat has chosen EMC to perform this project. Nakilat’s modern LNG and LPG carriers are
highly-sophisticated, specialised ships requiring the highest levels of dependable connectivity for
ships’ business and crew welfare.”
He added: “Our seamless global coverage and network infrastructure, coupled with our suite of
patented technologies, provides an unmatched value proposition enabling customers like Nakilat
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Saudi Arabia to discuss energy cooperation with China, Japan
By Reuters
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, plans to discuss energy cooperation agreements with
China and Japan, the Saudi cabinet said on Monday.
"The cabinet has approved to delegate a number of ministers to discuss with the Chinese side the
following projects: a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to cooperate in the energy sector; an
initial cooperation memorandum in the field of crude storage," a cabinet statement on state news
agency SPA said.
Discussions with Japan for an MOU for cooperating in the energy sector were also approved by
the cabinet, SPA said. Saudi Arabia has traditionally accounted for most of the crude imports by
Asia, the world's biggest oil-consuming region.
But recently OPEC's top producer has lost ground in a number of major markets including Russia
and China, and faces a further threat from Iran, which is ramping up exports after the removal of
Western sanctions.
The kingdom, however, has responded by pumping and shipping more oil, and with knockdown
prices in Asia from state oil giant Saudi Aramco. In 2015, Asia accounted for 65 percent of Saudi
Aramco's oil exports; an increase from 62.3 percent a year earlier.
Aramco has been in talks with China's CNPC and Sinopec for investment opportunities in refining,
marketing and petrochemicals, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier this year. Saudi
and Japanese officials had discussed in June possible Japanese investments into the planned
initial public offering (IPO) of Aramco.
Saudi Arabia's deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, unveiled ambitious plans earlier this
year aimed at ending the country's "addiction" to oil and transforming it into a global investment
power. An IPO of less than 5 percent of state-run Aramco is a centrepiece of that effort.
So big is Aramco given its rights to the crude reserves of Saudi Arabia, that selling even 1 percent
of it would create the world's biggest IPO, Prince Mohammed has said. He expects the IPO will
value Aramco at least at $2 trillion.
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China Turns to Free Markets to Tame Fossil-Fuel Pollution
Bloomberg News
There are at least three good reasons why China is likely to succeed in starting the world’s biggest
carbon-trading market when its efforts to limit pollution kick in next year.
The government wants to put a cost on emissions of toxic smog to control pollution in industrial
cities, starting with Beijing. The market may trade as much as 408 billion yuan ($61 billion) of
certificates a year, a step toward making the economy more transparent to outsiders. And it’s
good public relations, showing China is serious about climate change.
Regardless of the motivation, China’s move marks the biggest yet to use a market-based
approach to control pollution, exceeding the scale of Europe’s $55 billion a year system. It’s the
latest example of Asian nations turning to finance to govern electricity instead of relying on direct
controls. Banks including China Everbright Bank Co. and Industrial Bank Co. as well as China
Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection Group are assessing how to profit from it.
“As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China recognizes it has an important role to play in global
climate policy,” said Lee Levkowitz, a Beijing-based analyst at IHS Markit Energy. “The Chinese
government is also keen to slow down fossil fuel consumption growth to better manage its energy
security.”
Designed to provide economic incentives to cut pollution, carbon trading has lost momentum in
the past decade as prices failed to hit the level of at least $30 a ton that industry says is needed to
spur real change.
In Europe, the cost of a metric ton of carbon offsets has fallen about 80 percent from its peak in
2008 to an average 5.52 euros ($6.25) this year as politicians failed to mop up a surplus created
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when industrial output and pollution plunged. China’s authorities are assuming a similar price for
their credits, estimating the size of their market based on a cost of 40 yuan a ton (5.30 euros).
Whether China’s program forces actual emissions cuts won’t be known for years. There’s also the
question of why China can make trading work when others have failed. To that, proponents say
China may simply be getting in on a growing market.
“Carbon trading is part of the government’s broader effort to tap into the power of markets to
address economic, social and environmental challenges,” said Song Ranping, developing-country
climate action manager at the World Resources Institute. "It demonstrate China’s commitment to
take action."
Chinese officials are optimistic the system will become the world’s leading carbon market. Spot
trades could reach 8 billion yuan ($1.2 billion), resulting eventually in 400 billion yuan in derivative
trades a year, said Chai Qimin, deputy director of strategy at China’s National Center for Climate
Change and International Cooperation.
China is learning from other’s missteps. It established pilot systems in seven regions starting in
2013 to guide what’s coming next year. Industrial Bank, based in Fuzhou, China, has started
developing trading and clearing systems for the market and financing for low-emissions projects,
Xinhua News Agency reported in March, citing Fang Zhiyong, general manager of the
environmental finance department.
The government in Beijing is following the trend toward markets across Asia. South Korea and the
European Union earlier this year initiated a three-year project to support the the Asian country’s
emissions trading system, which started last year. Japan will consider more measures including
carbon trading to ensure 44 percent of its power comes from zero-emission sources by 2030.
In China, authorities have previously ordered factories closed and cars off the street to combat
smog. Trading will cover eight industries, including areas such as papermaking, aviation and
power utilities. They will buy credits covering their emissions and can sell any surplus. A link to
overseas markets may also be possible, giving another way to profit.
For China, carbon trading is part of President Xi Jinping package of emissions cuts promised in a
deal with U.S. President Barack Obama that revived the global climate talks and led to the deal in
Paris in December.
China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, has pledged to cap its emissions around 2030. The
nation aims to derive 20 percent of the energy it uses from clean sources then, while it seeks to
also reduce its reliance on coal power.
China’s market must overcome several hurdles including "the need for emissions monitoring and
reporting at the level of every major emitting facility,” said Frank Jotzo, deputy director of the
Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University.
It also may face an oversupply of permits in the first three years of its program because
allocations are based on years when industrial output and emissions were higher, said Sophie Lu,
a Beijing-based analyst from BNEF.
The difference between the amount of permits to be given and historical data will be "a good sign
to show how serious China is in cutting emissions," she said.
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Pakistan Ending Blackouts Key to Unlocking $5 Billion Inflow
Bloomberg - Kamran Haider
Pakistan is targeting a fourfold jump in foreign direct investments betting that new power plants
coming online will end energy shortages that have stalled inflows into the nation, according to an
aide to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
The government forecasts investments will jump to $5 billion in the year starting July 1, 2017, from
$1.28 billion in the last fiscal year, said Miftah Ismail, who is also chairman of the nation’s Board of
Investment. Direct foreign investment levels have remained flat in the past three years since
Sharif took a $6.6 billion of loan from the International Monetary Fund to avert a balance-of-
payments crisis.
Pakistan is still stymied by power cuts even as Sharif’s administration is on course to complete the
IMF loan program next month. With economic growth around an annual 5 percent, the
government is now targeting a 7 percent rate by 2018 helped by China’s plans to invest about $46
billion in the nation.
“If you don’t give them gas and electricity, how they will run their machines?” Ismail said in an
interview at his office in the capital Islamabad. “Once that energy is given you’ll see a lot of foreign
investment and industry.”
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Currently Pakistan’s average electricity and gas shortages stand at 4,000 megawatts and 2.5
billion cubic feet per day. As part of the IMF program, Sharif has committed to privatizing power
distribution companies in a bid to improve efficiency and cut losses in the energy sector. His
administration has also pledged to add 10,000 megawatts to the national grid by end of the
government’s term in 2018.
Despite the energy deficit, Ismail pointed to Pakistan’s growing car market as an example of
investment interest. The government is expecting a new automobile company to start
manufacturing in the country next year, he said.
Net inflows totaled $3.8 billion in three years since July 2013, the same amount as the preceding
three years, according to central bank data.
Ismail is hoping that bridging the energy gap as new power plants add to the national grid will
bring that figure to close to an annual $5 billion by the next fiscal year starting July 2017.
However, that target may be too ambitious, said Muzaffar Ali Isani, an economics professor at Iqra
University in Karachi.
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US:Future U.S. tight oil and shale gas production depends on
resources, technology, markets … U.S. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
Based on projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook
2016 (AEO2016), U.S. tight oil production is expected to reach 7.08 million barrels per day (b/d),
and shale gas production is expected to reach 79 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2040. These
values reflect Reference case projections, while several side cases with different assumptions of
oil prices, technological advances, and resource availability have different levels of tight oil and
shale gas production.
U.S. production of tight oil and shale gas has increased significantly from 2010 to 2015, driven
by technological improvements that have reduced drilling costs and improved drilling efficiency in
major shale plays, such as the Bakken, Marcellus, and Eagle Ford.
Production from tight oil in 2015 was 4.89 million barrels per day, or 52% of total U.S. crude oil
production. From 2015 to 2017, tight oil production is projected to decrease by 700,000 barrels
per day in the Reference case, mainly attributed to low oil prices and the resulting cuts in
investment.
However, production declines will continue to be mitigated by reductions in cost and
improvements in drilling techniques. The use of more efficient hydraulic fracturing techniques and
the application of multiwell-pad drilling, as well as changes in well completion designs, will allow
producers to recover greater volumes from a single well.
As oil prices recover, oil production from tight formations is expected to increase. By 2019,
Bakken oil production is projected to reach 1.3 million b/d, surpassing the Eagle Ford to become
the largest tight oil-producing formation in the United States.
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The Bakken, which spans 37,000 square miles in North Dakota and Montana, has a technically
recoverable resource of 23 billion barrels of tight oil that can be produced based on current
technology, industry practice, and geologic knowledge. Bakken production is projected to reach
2.3 million barrels per day by 2040, almost a third of the projected U.S. total tight oil production.
Natural gas production from shale gas plays in 2015 accounted for 37.4 billion cubic feet per day
(Bcf/d), or 50% of total U.S. natural gas production. Unlike production from tight oil, which declines
in the near term before increasing later in the forecast period, natural gas production from shale
gas plays is expected to increase through 2040 in the AEO2016 Reference case.
The two Appalachian shale gas plays, the Marcellus and Utica, have factors favorable for
production: shallower geologic formation depths and proximity to consuming markets.
Both Appalachian shale gas plays have remained resilient to the low natural gas prices and are
projected to continue to drive total U.S. production in the long term. Shale gas production in these
plays is expected to reach more than 40 Bcf/d by 2040, providing just over half of U.S. total shale
gas production.
Two oil price side cases illustrate the effect of higher or lower global crude oil prices on production
from tight formations. By 2040, the global benchmark Brent crude oil spot price averages $73/b in
the Low Oil Price case, $136/b in the Reference case, and $230/b in the High Oil Price case.
In the High Oil Price case, drilling activities increase tight oil production through 2026, after which
it begins to decline. The opposite is true in the Low Oil Price case, where tight oil production
declines slightly before increasing after 2026. Production of shale gas increases in both the High
and Low Oil Price cases.
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In the resource and technology side cases, the estimated ultimate recovery for shale gas and tight
oil wells in the United States is 50% higher or 50% lower than in the Reference case. Rates of
technological improvement that reduce costs and increase productivity in the United States are
also 50% higher or 50% lower than in the Reference case. By 2040, these cases result in the
greater differences from Reference case production values than do the alternative oil price cases.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
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NewBase 23 August 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil prices fall as analysts say market still oversupplied
Reuters + Newbase
Oil prices fell early on Tuesday as analysts including Goldman Sachs warned that August's price
rally had been overdone, and that a proposed oil
production freeze at current near record levels would not
help rein in an oversupplied market.
International Brent crude oil futures were trading at $48.98
per barrel at 0032 GMT, down 18 cents from their last
close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 23
cents at $47.18 per barrel.
Analysts said the falls were a result of an overdone price
rally this month which lifted crude by over 20 percent
between the beginning of the month and late last week.
Since then, prices have fallen back by more than 3.5 percent. "The narrative of a rapid re-
balancing of the oil market has ... met a few stumbling blocks. Some of Q2's disrupted supply
returned, OPEC's collective output rose, and U.S. shale oil is being spared the dramatic year-on-
year declines forecast earlier in the year," French bank BNP Paribas said.
Goldman Sachs said a proposal by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) and other producers like Russia to freeze output at current levels "would leave
production at record highs" and therefore do little to bring supply and demand back into balance.
Goldman said it expects crude oil prices of between $45 and $50 per barrel "through next
summer," but warned that "a sustainable pick-up in disrupted production would lead us to lower
our oil price forecast with WTI prices ... to average $45 per barrel."
Oil price special
coverage
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The oil market is stuck in a 'Groundhog Day’ trap
CNBC - Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Associates
While the recent rapid rise in crude oil prices has led some to forecast $60 oil, I think it is more like
Déjà vu all over again. I think over the next several months the oil market will act more like the
movie "Groundhog Day" where the star, and now the oil market, is caught in a time loop.
In late May 23, sweet crude oil futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange traded at about $48
per barrel. On Friday August 19, crude oil futures closed at $48.52. In between, there has been an
OPEC meeting in June and talk of a meeting in Algeria next month to freeze production and crude
has traded over $51 and under $40.
OPEC has expanded its membership to 14 with the recent addition of Indonesia and Gabon. With
the Energy Information Administration reporting U.S. exports hit a record 662,000 barrels per day
in May 2016, perhaps the U.S. should apply for number 15. However the high level of exports is
symptomatic of a world oversupplied with oil and that continues to be the case.
The actions of oil producers speak far louder than words. Saudi Arabia is producing record
amounts of oil and Iraq just announced that it will boost exports by resuming flows form Kirkuk.
Now that Iran has increased production to near pre sanction levels, they may well be inclined to
agree to a production freeze. But what good is a freeze if the target level is set equal to the
maximum production levels of all the participants?
I like to follow the flow of crude oil to see if the market is cleaning up. It isn't. While the U.S. was
exporting its light sweet crude oil off the Gulf Coast To Europe, Asia and South America, it was
actually importing light sweet crude oil from Nigeria and Angola. Exports of Alaskan North Slope
Crude oil are going to Asia at the same time Russian crude oil is coming into the West Coast. In
Europe, Iranian crude oil is being sold into Poland at the same time that Russian crude oil heads
to Asia. Ships passing in the night are a sign of an oversupplied market.
The increased oil production from the Middle East is not OPEC's only worry. It has two members,
Libya and Nigeria where supply disruptions have kept a significant supply of oil off the market.
Should things get better there, it only gets worse for an eventual oil price recovery. The price
recovery will eventually happen as world oil demand continues to grow but I continue to look for
only $50 by January 2017.
There is a lot of oil out there and it still is being moved around and stored which means that the
midstream companies in this business will benefit. I like Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) a
large midstream company focusing on crude oil. Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) continues
to build out crude oil infrastructure in the Houston area while Sunoco Logistics (SXL) has been
adding more pipeline capacity out of the Permian Basin.
Even though prices for oil field services have come down, the recent increase in the rig count
means more demand for frac sand (used in fracking) and that will continue to benefit Hi Crush
Partners (HCLP). As aproduction companies have squeezed out more costs and improved drilling
efficiency, those with large holdings in the Permian Basin stand to benefit:
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY),
• Apache (APA),
• Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and
• Concho Resources(CXO).
But it's going to take some time to see oil prices rise. $60 oil? Maybe 2018.
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 23 August 2016
Qatar to benefit from oil spike in short-term
The Peninsula - Satish Kanady
DOHA: Even as low oil price environment continues to have material, and in some cases
profound, implications for economic growth and the balance sheet of GCC sovereigns, the recent
fluctuations in the oil price are unlikely to have a major impact on GCC sovereigns’
creditworthiness. Credit profiles will remain under stress despite prospects of somewhat higher oil
prices in the near term than expected earlier this year, Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday.
Moody’s expects oil prices to remain low, moving within a $40-$60 per barrel range over the
medium term. In June, Moody’s raised its nearer term oil price estimates for Brent crude to $40
per barrel in 2016 and $45 in 2017.
Moody’s noted that the GCC countries will face some near-term relief from higher oil prices, with
narrower fiscal and current account deficits than it previously expected. In particular, Qatar,
Kuwait, and Oman are set to be the main beneficiaries of higher oil prices in the short term, given
the larger reliance on oil for government revenues. Moody’s now forecasts a deficit of 3.0 percent
of GDP for Kuwait, 5.5 percent for Qatar and 15.1 percent for Oman in 2016.
GCC sovereigns will continue to rely on debt issuance, drawdowns of fiscal reserves, or a
combination of both to finance the fiscal deficits. This will results in a sustained deterioration of
their net asset positions over the near term. “While we have revised upwards our near-term
estimated prices for oil, our medium-term expectation of ‘lower for longer’ oil prices remains
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
unchanged. We therefore expect GCC countries to continue to face economic, fiscal and external
challenges,” says Steffen Dyck, a Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s.
Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE are the most strongly positioned GCC sovereigns in terms of both the
size of their financial assets compared to government spending and low fiscal-breakeven oil
prices, while Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain have higher fiscal break-even oil price along with
much lower financial assets on which to draw, which contributes to the ratings gap.
“We project fiscal gains of around 4-5 percent of GDP for Qatar and 3.5-4.5 percent of GDP for
Oman, and smaller but sizeable gains of 1.5-3 percent of GDP for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and
Bahrain over 2016-17.”, the ratings agency said.
On the debt issuance, the report noted sovereign and non-sovereign bond and sukuk issuance in
the GCC reached a record $33.8bn during the first half of 2016, compared to $22.6bn for the full
year 2015. The sharp increase is driven by higher government issuances to finance large fiscal
deficits in 2016. In 2015, GCC countries primarily drew on foreign exchange reserves and
government deposits in the banking system to finance fiscal and current account deficits.
However, Moody’s sees the funding mix shift more towards debt issuances this year.
“Thus far in 2016, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Oman and Bahrain have issued international bonds or
sukuks tatalling$17.1bn. Other countries looking to issue in the second half of 2016 include Qatar,
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, the latter reportedly preparing a large issuance of up to $15bn divided
into 10-year and 30-year tranches. Qatar raised a $5.5bn five-year syndicated loan in January.
trade surplus in Q2 up by 6% to QR20.56bn
Qatar’s trade balance (which represents the difference between total exports and imports of
goods) during the second quarter of this year (Q2,2016) stood at QR20.56bn, up 6 percent
compared to QR19.38bn of previous quarter (Q1,2016).
However, when compared on year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, the trade surplus is showing a decline of
nearly 53 percent compared to QR43.74bn registered in the same quarter last year (Q2,2015),
data released by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics show.
According to the second quarter edition of the ‘Quarterly Bulletin on Foreign Merchandise’, the
value of Qatar’s total exports (including exports of domestic goods and re-exports) in Q2,2016,
amounted to QR49.4bn, which has decreased by QR23.7bn, or 32.4 percent, compared to
QR73.1bn in Q2,2015.
The y-o-y decline in total exports was mainly due to lower exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and
related materials by QR21.3bn, chemicals and related products by QR1.8bn, and manufactured
goods by about QR600m.
While the value of Qatar’s imports in Q2,2016 stood at QR28.8bn, down by 1.7 percent (or
QR500m), compared to QR29.3bn in Q2,2015. The y-o-y decrease in the value of imports was
attributed to the decline in the imports of machinery and transport equipment by QR1.4bn, and
manufactured goods classified chiefly by material by QR300m.
Asia was the principal destination of Qatar’s exports and the first origin of Qatar’s imports,
representing 70.8 percent and 30.7 percent, respectively, followed by the European Union,
accounting for 11.8 percent and 30.7 percent respectively, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, with
9.8 percent and 17. percent, respectively.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
On a q-o-q basis, Qatar’s total exports in Q2, 2016 declined by QR1.1bn, or 2.1 percent,
compared to QR50.48bn in Q1, 2016.
The y-o-y decline in the total value of exports was mainly driven by the decrease in the exports of
mineral fuels. During the second quarter of this year, Mineral fuels, lubricants and related
materials accounted for 81 percent of total exports. The value of Qatar’s imports during Q2, 2016
declined by QR2.3bn, or 7.3 percent, compared to the previous quarter.
While the y-o-y decrease in imports was mainly driven by decreases in machinery and transport
equipment of QR1.4bn, or 10.5 percent, and Manufactured goods by QR300m, or 6.4 percent.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 26 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 23 August 2016 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19

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New base energy news issue 913 dated 23 august 2016

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 23 August 2016 - Issue No. 913 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Qatar: Next phase of $2bn power project soon © The Peninsula 2016 = Mohammad Shoeb The next phase of Qatar's mega power transmission and distribution project is expected to start in the current quarter of this year. The estimated $2bn worth project 'Qatar Power Transmission System Expansion-Phase 13' is scheduled to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2018, a latest report on GCC's power sector revealed. Qatar, as part of its long-term investment plans for revamping and expanding its power sector, has earmarked over $10bn, which includes projects in all stages including those on hold but likely to be activated soon. Given the sharp growth in population (mainly due to influx of foreign workers), Qatar is witnessing significant growth in the demand for utilities. The country's peak demand of electricity in 2015 was about 7,000 megawatt (MW) of electricity and 330 million gallons per day of water, which is expected to grow by 6-8 percent. And Qatar is yet to witness the all-time peak demand of utilities in the run-up to the 2020 FIFA games preparations. The Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC), country's main producer of utilities, is much ahead enhancing the installed capacity which is always maintaining big surplus than the actual peak demand.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 With the completion of ongoing projects, including the Umm Al Houl plant, the estimated installed capacity is expected to exceed about 11,000 MW of electricity and 490 MIGD of water by the end of 2018. When it comes to the combined level of investments of all the GCC countries put together, the power sector of all the six-member states will require about $50bn of investment in new power generating capacity, noted the report on GCC Power Market Overview by Ventures Onsite for Middle East Electricity. The GCC is expected to add 76.8 gigawatts (GW) of capacity for power generation between 2016 and 2020, according to Pan-Arab energy investment bank Apicorp estimates. The region's electricity consumption is expected to reach 856 terawatt-hours by 2020, requiring 100 GW of additional power over the next 10 years to meet the demand, noted the report, citing data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Strong economic and demographic growth in GCC economies such as highly energy- intensive industrialisation programmes, special economic zones, industrial parks and warehousing complexes are expected to drive a dramatic surge in power consumption in these countries, including Qatar. As the demand increases, the GCC countries are also experiencing significant requirements for power sector infrastructure development. The GCC countries have collaborated in developing a joint Gulf power grid, to develop the region's electricity network and also help unify the six countries. The grid has already led to savings of $3bn in investments, in addition to a savings of $330m of operating costs and fuel, according to the GCC Interconnection Authority. The total value of GCC power projects is estimated to be worth $247bn (as of February 7, 2016). Saudi Arabia registered the highest project value among the GCC countries worth $118bn followed by the UAE and Kuwait, noted the report.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Iraq ships out third cargo of condensate, 20,000CM from Basrah Gas Dubai (Platts)--23 May 2016 909 am EDT/1309 GMT Iraq has exported a new cargo of plant condensate, the third in the two months after the first export of 10,000 cubic meters on March 20, as it continues its efforts to deliver regular volumes to global markets, the oil ministry said Sunday. The 20,000 cu m shipment was exported from the Umm Qasr port in the Persian Gulf, Ahmed Younis, undersecretary for gas in the ministry, said in a statement Sunday. A second shipment of 10,500 cu m was sold March 30. The latest cargo came from the Shell-led consortium, Basrah Gas Co., though he did reveal the destination or buyer. The first two cargoes were shipped to the UAE port of Fujairah, and sources with knowledge of the matter said the sales were made on a differential to the Mean of Platts Arab Gulf Naphtha assessments. The condensates were from associated gas treatment by Basrah Gas, which was established in 2012 to capture and utilize flared gas from the Rumaila, Zubair and West Qurna 1 oil fields for use in power plants and industrial plants and for export. The oil ministry has earlier put Iraq's gas processing capacity at 1,100 MMcf/d, which can fully meet the country's domestic demand. More capacity is being added by Basrah Gas, however, which will allow more regular supplies to global markets. Meanwhile, Iraq's LPG production is currently 5,000 mt/day and it plans to start exporting by the end of this year as it increases its gas processing capacity.
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Qatar:Nakilat upgrades satellite coms for LNG, LPG carriers Gul Times Nakilat, the shipping arm of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas sector, has entered into a contract with Global Eagle Entertainment’s Emerging Markets Communications (EMC) service line to provide marine VSAT services for its fleet of liqu efied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers. Under the contract, EMC will supply global Ku-band VSAT connectivity and content to enable a range of Internet, data, and voice services for the vessels and crew. The installations were completed recently on eight Nakilat vessels, which will ensure continuous connectivity for their ships sailing global routes. The onboard satellite communication suite includes a high-quality voice-over-IP system for the corporate network, lowering the costs of voice calls over the satellites. The crew welfare system provides always-on Internet connectivity to communicate with family and friends at home. Nakilat administration director Rashid Hamad al-Marri said: “We are delighted to sign this agreement with EMC, which will significantly contribute to the development of the communication systems’ infrastructure and facilitate Nakilat’s maritime operations. As the owner of one of the largest LNG fleets in the world, staying connected while at sea is essential for Nakilat’s global operations. “By utilising EMC’s VSAT technology, we are able to ensure real-time information is accessible and that our personnel can stay in touch with their families during the vessel’s voyage while at the same time, realise cost savings for the company.” Gilles Gillesen, president of EMC’s commercial shipping business unit, said: “We are honoured that Nakilat has chosen EMC to perform this project. Nakilat’s modern LNG and LPG carriers are highly-sophisticated, specialised ships requiring the highest levels of dependable connectivity for ships’ business and crew welfare.” He added: “Our seamless global coverage and network infrastructure, coupled with our suite of patented technologies, provides an unmatched value proposition enabling customers like Nakilat
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Saudi Arabia to discuss energy cooperation with China, Japan By Reuters Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, plans to discuss energy cooperation agreements with China and Japan, the Saudi cabinet said on Monday. "The cabinet has approved to delegate a number of ministers to discuss with the Chinese side the following projects: a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to cooperate in the energy sector; an initial cooperation memorandum in the field of crude storage," a cabinet statement on state news agency SPA said. Discussions with Japan for an MOU for cooperating in the energy sector were also approved by the cabinet, SPA said. Saudi Arabia has traditionally accounted for most of the crude imports by Asia, the world's biggest oil-consuming region. But recently OPEC's top producer has lost ground in a number of major markets including Russia and China, and faces a further threat from Iran, which is ramping up exports after the removal of Western sanctions. The kingdom, however, has responded by pumping and shipping more oil, and with knockdown prices in Asia from state oil giant Saudi Aramco. In 2015, Asia accounted for 65 percent of Saudi Aramco's oil exports; an increase from 62.3 percent a year earlier. Aramco has been in talks with China's CNPC and Sinopec for investment opportunities in refining, marketing and petrochemicals, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier this year. Saudi and Japanese officials had discussed in June possible Japanese investments into the planned initial public offering (IPO) of Aramco. Saudi Arabia's deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, unveiled ambitious plans earlier this year aimed at ending the country's "addiction" to oil and transforming it into a global investment power. An IPO of less than 5 percent of state-run Aramco is a centrepiece of that effort. So big is Aramco given its rights to the crude reserves of Saudi Arabia, that selling even 1 percent of it would create the world's biggest IPO, Prince Mohammed has said. He expects the IPO will value Aramco at least at $2 trillion.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 China Turns to Free Markets to Tame Fossil-Fuel Pollution Bloomberg News There are at least three good reasons why China is likely to succeed in starting the world’s biggest carbon-trading market when its efforts to limit pollution kick in next year. The government wants to put a cost on emissions of toxic smog to control pollution in industrial cities, starting with Beijing. The market may trade as much as 408 billion yuan ($61 billion) of certificates a year, a step toward making the economy more transparent to outsiders. And it’s good public relations, showing China is serious about climate change. Regardless of the motivation, China’s move marks the biggest yet to use a market-based approach to control pollution, exceeding the scale of Europe’s $55 billion a year system. It’s the latest example of Asian nations turning to finance to govern electricity instead of relying on direct controls. Banks including China Everbright Bank Co. and Industrial Bank Co. as well as China Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection Group are assessing how to profit from it. “As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China recognizes it has an important role to play in global climate policy,” said Lee Levkowitz, a Beijing-based analyst at IHS Markit Energy. “The Chinese government is also keen to slow down fossil fuel consumption growth to better manage its energy security.” Designed to provide economic incentives to cut pollution, carbon trading has lost momentum in the past decade as prices failed to hit the level of at least $30 a ton that industry says is needed to spur real change. In Europe, the cost of a metric ton of carbon offsets has fallen about 80 percent from its peak in 2008 to an average 5.52 euros ($6.25) this year as politicians failed to mop up a surplus created
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 when industrial output and pollution plunged. China’s authorities are assuming a similar price for their credits, estimating the size of their market based on a cost of 40 yuan a ton (5.30 euros). Whether China’s program forces actual emissions cuts won’t be known for years. There’s also the question of why China can make trading work when others have failed. To that, proponents say China may simply be getting in on a growing market. “Carbon trading is part of the government’s broader effort to tap into the power of markets to address economic, social and environmental challenges,” said Song Ranping, developing-country climate action manager at the World Resources Institute. "It demonstrate China’s commitment to take action." Chinese officials are optimistic the system will become the world’s leading carbon market. Spot trades could reach 8 billion yuan ($1.2 billion), resulting eventually in 400 billion yuan in derivative trades a year, said Chai Qimin, deputy director of strategy at China’s National Center for Climate Change and International Cooperation. China is learning from other’s missteps. It established pilot systems in seven regions starting in 2013 to guide what’s coming next year. Industrial Bank, based in Fuzhou, China, has started developing trading and clearing systems for the market and financing for low-emissions projects, Xinhua News Agency reported in March, citing Fang Zhiyong, general manager of the environmental finance department. The government in Beijing is following the trend toward markets across Asia. South Korea and the European Union earlier this year initiated a three-year project to support the the Asian country’s emissions trading system, which started last year. Japan will consider more measures including carbon trading to ensure 44 percent of its power comes from zero-emission sources by 2030. In China, authorities have previously ordered factories closed and cars off the street to combat smog. Trading will cover eight industries, including areas such as papermaking, aviation and power utilities. They will buy credits covering their emissions and can sell any surplus. A link to overseas markets may also be possible, giving another way to profit. For China, carbon trading is part of President Xi Jinping package of emissions cuts promised in a deal with U.S. President Barack Obama that revived the global climate talks and led to the deal in Paris in December. China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, has pledged to cap its emissions around 2030. The nation aims to derive 20 percent of the energy it uses from clean sources then, while it seeks to also reduce its reliance on coal power. China’s market must overcome several hurdles including "the need for emissions monitoring and reporting at the level of every major emitting facility,” said Frank Jotzo, deputy director of the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University. It also may face an oversupply of permits in the first three years of its program because allocations are based on years when industrial output and emissions were higher, said Sophie Lu, a Beijing-based analyst from BNEF. The difference between the amount of permits to be given and historical data will be "a good sign to show how serious China is in cutting emissions," she said.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Pakistan Ending Blackouts Key to Unlocking $5 Billion Inflow Bloomberg - Kamran Haider Pakistan is targeting a fourfold jump in foreign direct investments betting that new power plants coming online will end energy shortages that have stalled inflows into the nation, according to an aide to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The government forecasts investments will jump to $5 billion in the year starting July 1, 2017, from $1.28 billion in the last fiscal year, said Miftah Ismail, who is also chairman of the nation’s Board of Investment. Direct foreign investment levels have remained flat in the past three years since Sharif took a $6.6 billion of loan from the International Monetary Fund to avert a balance-of- payments crisis. Pakistan is still stymied by power cuts even as Sharif’s administration is on course to complete the IMF loan program next month. With economic growth around an annual 5 percent, the government is now targeting a 7 percent rate by 2018 helped by China’s plans to invest about $46 billion in the nation. “If you don’t give them gas and electricity, how they will run their machines?” Ismail said in an interview at his office in the capital Islamabad. “Once that energy is given you’ll see a lot of foreign investment and industry.”
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Currently Pakistan’s average electricity and gas shortages stand at 4,000 megawatts and 2.5 billion cubic feet per day. As part of the IMF program, Sharif has committed to privatizing power distribution companies in a bid to improve efficiency and cut losses in the energy sector. His administration has also pledged to add 10,000 megawatts to the national grid by end of the government’s term in 2018. Despite the energy deficit, Ismail pointed to Pakistan’s growing car market as an example of investment interest. The government is expecting a new automobile company to start manufacturing in the country next year, he said. Net inflows totaled $3.8 billion in three years since July 2013, the same amount as the preceding three years, according to central bank data. Ismail is hoping that bridging the energy gap as new power plants add to the national grid will bring that figure to close to an annual $5 billion by the next fiscal year starting July 2017. However, that target may be too ambitious, said Muzaffar Ali Isani, an economics professor at Iqra University in Karachi.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 US:Future U.S. tight oil and shale gas production depends on resources, technology, markets … U.S. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Based on projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016), U.S. tight oil production is expected to reach 7.08 million barrels per day (b/d), and shale gas production is expected to reach 79 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2040. These values reflect Reference case projections, while several side cases with different assumptions of oil prices, technological advances, and resource availability have different levels of tight oil and shale gas production. U.S. production of tight oil and shale gas has increased significantly from 2010 to 2015, driven by technological improvements that have reduced drilling costs and improved drilling efficiency in major shale plays, such as the Bakken, Marcellus, and Eagle Ford. Production from tight oil in 2015 was 4.89 million barrels per day, or 52% of total U.S. crude oil production. From 2015 to 2017, tight oil production is projected to decrease by 700,000 barrels per day in the Reference case, mainly attributed to low oil prices and the resulting cuts in investment. However, production declines will continue to be mitigated by reductions in cost and improvements in drilling techniques. The use of more efficient hydraulic fracturing techniques and the application of multiwell-pad drilling, as well as changes in well completion designs, will allow producers to recover greater volumes from a single well. As oil prices recover, oil production from tight formations is expected to increase. By 2019, Bakken oil production is projected to reach 1.3 million b/d, surpassing the Eagle Ford to become the largest tight oil-producing formation in the United States.
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 The Bakken, which spans 37,000 square miles in North Dakota and Montana, has a technically recoverable resource of 23 billion barrels of tight oil that can be produced based on current technology, industry practice, and geologic knowledge. Bakken production is projected to reach 2.3 million barrels per day by 2040, almost a third of the projected U.S. total tight oil production. Natural gas production from shale gas plays in 2015 accounted for 37.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or 50% of total U.S. natural gas production. Unlike production from tight oil, which declines in the near term before increasing later in the forecast period, natural gas production from shale gas plays is expected to increase through 2040 in the AEO2016 Reference case. The two Appalachian shale gas plays, the Marcellus and Utica, have factors favorable for production: shallower geologic formation depths and proximity to consuming markets. Both Appalachian shale gas plays have remained resilient to the low natural gas prices and are projected to continue to drive total U.S. production in the long term. Shale gas production in these plays is expected to reach more than 40 Bcf/d by 2040, providing just over half of U.S. total shale gas production. Two oil price side cases illustrate the effect of higher or lower global crude oil prices on production from tight formations. By 2040, the global benchmark Brent crude oil spot price averages $73/b in the Low Oil Price case, $136/b in the Reference case, and $230/b in the High Oil Price case. In the High Oil Price case, drilling activities increase tight oil production through 2026, after which it begins to decline. The opposite is true in the Low Oil Price case, where tight oil production declines slightly before increasing after 2026. Production of shale gas increases in both the High and Low Oil Price cases.
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 In the resource and technology side cases, the estimated ultimate recovery for shale gas and tight oil wells in the United States is 50% higher or 50% lower than in the Reference case. Rates of technological improvement that reduce costs and increase productivity in the United States are also 50% higher or 50% lower than in the Reference case. By 2040, these cases result in the greater differences from Reference case production values than do the alternative oil price cases. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2016
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 NewBase 23 August 2016 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil prices fall as analysts say market still oversupplied Reuters + Newbase Oil prices fell early on Tuesday as analysts including Goldman Sachs warned that August's price rally had been overdone, and that a proposed oil production freeze at current near record levels would not help rein in an oversupplied market. International Brent crude oil futures were trading at $48.98 per barrel at 0032 GMT, down 18 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 23 cents at $47.18 per barrel. Analysts said the falls were a result of an overdone price rally this month which lifted crude by over 20 percent between the beginning of the month and late last week. Since then, prices have fallen back by more than 3.5 percent. "The narrative of a rapid re- balancing of the oil market has ... met a few stumbling blocks. Some of Q2's disrupted supply returned, OPEC's collective output rose, and U.S. shale oil is being spared the dramatic year-on- year declines forecast earlier in the year," French bank BNP Paribas said. Goldman Sachs said a proposal by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers like Russia to freeze output at current levels "would leave production at record highs" and therefore do little to bring supply and demand back into balance. Goldman said it expects crude oil prices of between $45 and $50 per barrel "through next summer," but warned that "a sustainable pick-up in disrupted production would lead us to lower our oil price forecast with WTI prices ... to average $45 per barrel." Oil price special coverage
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 The oil market is stuck in a 'Groundhog Day’ trap CNBC - Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Associates While the recent rapid rise in crude oil prices has led some to forecast $60 oil, I think it is more like Déjà vu all over again. I think over the next several months the oil market will act more like the movie "Groundhog Day" where the star, and now the oil market, is caught in a time loop. In late May 23, sweet crude oil futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange traded at about $48 per barrel. On Friday August 19, crude oil futures closed at $48.52. In between, there has been an OPEC meeting in June and talk of a meeting in Algeria next month to freeze production and crude has traded over $51 and under $40. OPEC has expanded its membership to 14 with the recent addition of Indonesia and Gabon. With the Energy Information Administration reporting U.S. exports hit a record 662,000 barrels per day in May 2016, perhaps the U.S. should apply for number 15. However the high level of exports is symptomatic of a world oversupplied with oil and that continues to be the case. The actions of oil producers speak far louder than words. Saudi Arabia is producing record amounts of oil and Iraq just announced that it will boost exports by resuming flows form Kirkuk. Now that Iran has increased production to near pre sanction levels, they may well be inclined to agree to a production freeze. But what good is a freeze if the target level is set equal to the maximum production levels of all the participants? I like to follow the flow of crude oil to see if the market is cleaning up. It isn't. While the U.S. was exporting its light sweet crude oil off the Gulf Coast To Europe, Asia and South America, it was actually importing light sweet crude oil from Nigeria and Angola. Exports of Alaskan North Slope Crude oil are going to Asia at the same time Russian crude oil is coming into the West Coast. In Europe, Iranian crude oil is being sold into Poland at the same time that Russian crude oil heads to Asia. Ships passing in the night are a sign of an oversupplied market. The increased oil production from the Middle East is not OPEC's only worry. It has two members, Libya and Nigeria where supply disruptions have kept a significant supply of oil off the market. Should things get better there, it only gets worse for an eventual oil price recovery. The price recovery will eventually happen as world oil demand continues to grow but I continue to look for only $50 by January 2017. There is a lot of oil out there and it still is being moved around and stored which means that the midstream companies in this business will benefit. I like Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) a large midstream company focusing on crude oil. Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) continues to build out crude oil infrastructure in the Houston area while Sunoco Logistics (SXL) has been adding more pipeline capacity out of the Permian Basin. Even though prices for oil field services have come down, the recent increase in the rig count means more demand for frac sand (used in fracking) and that will continue to benefit Hi Crush Partners (HCLP). As aproduction companies have squeezed out more costs and improved drilling efficiency, those with large holdings in the Permian Basin stand to benefit: • Occidental Petroleum (OXY), • Apache (APA), • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and • Concho Resources(CXO). But it's going to take some time to see oil prices rise. $60 oil? Maybe 2018.
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 23 August 2016 Qatar to benefit from oil spike in short-term The Peninsula - Satish Kanady DOHA: Even as low oil price environment continues to have material, and in some cases profound, implications for economic growth and the balance sheet of GCC sovereigns, the recent fluctuations in the oil price are unlikely to have a major impact on GCC sovereigns’ creditworthiness. Credit profiles will remain under stress despite prospects of somewhat higher oil prices in the near term than expected earlier this year, Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday. Moody’s expects oil prices to remain low, moving within a $40-$60 per barrel range over the medium term. In June, Moody’s raised its nearer term oil price estimates for Brent crude to $40 per barrel in 2016 and $45 in 2017. Moody’s noted that the GCC countries will face some near-term relief from higher oil prices, with narrower fiscal and current account deficits than it previously expected. In particular, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman are set to be the main beneficiaries of higher oil prices in the short term, given the larger reliance on oil for government revenues. Moody’s now forecasts a deficit of 3.0 percent of GDP for Kuwait, 5.5 percent for Qatar and 15.1 percent for Oman in 2016. GCC sovereigns will continue to rely on debt issuance, drawdowns of fiscal reserves, or a combination of both to finance the fiscal deficits. This will results in a sustained deterioration of their net asset positions over the near term. “While we have revised upwards our near-term estimated prices for oil, our medium-term expectation of ‘lower for longer’ oil prices remains
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 unchanged. We therefore expect GCC countries to continue to face economic, fiscal and external challenges,” says Steffen Dyck, a Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s. Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE are the most strongly positioned GCC sovereigns in terms of both the size of their financial assets compared to government spending and low fiscal-breakeven oil prices, while Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain have higher fiscal break-even oil price along with much lower financial assets on which to draw, which contributes to the ratings gap. “We project fiscal gains of around 4-5 percent of GDP for Qatar and 3.5-4.5 percent of GDP for Oman, and smaller but sizeable gains of 1.5-3 percent of GDP for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain over 2016-17.”, the ratings agency said. On the debt issuance, the report noted sovereign and non-sovereign bond and sukuk issuance in the GCC reached a record $33.8bn during the first half of 2016, compared to $22.6bn for the full year 2015. The sharp increase is driven by higher government issuances to finance large fiscal deficits in 2016. In 2015, GCC countries primarily drew on foreign exchange reserves and government deposits in the banking system to finance fiscal and current account deficits. However, Moody’s sees the funding mix shift more towards debt issuances this year. “Thus far in 2016, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Oman and Bahrain have issued international bonds or sukuks tatalling$17.1bn. Other countries looking to issue in the second half of 2016 include Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, the latter reportedly preparing a large issuance of up to $15bn divided into 10-year and 30-year tranches. Qatar raised a $5.5bn five-year syndicated loan in January. trade surplus in Q2 up by 6% to QR20.56bn Qatar’s trade balance (which represents the difference between total exports and imports of goods) during the second quarter of this year (Q2,2016) stood at QR20.56bn, up 6 percent compared to QR19.38bn of previous quarter (Q1,2016). However, when compared on year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, the trade surplus is showing a decline of nearly 53 percent compared to QR43.74bn registered in the same quarter last year (Q2,2015), data released by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics show. According to the second quarter edition of the ‘Quarterly Bulletin on Foreign Merchandise’, the value of Qatar’s total exports (including exports of domestic goods and re-exports) in Q2,2016, amounted to QR49.4bn, which has decreased by QR23.7bn, or 32.4 percent, compared to QR73.1bn in Q2,2015. The y-o-y decline in total exports was mainly due to lower exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials by QR21.3bn, chemicals and related products by QR1.8bn, and manufactured goods by about QR600m. While the value of Qatar’s imports in Q2,2016 stood at QR28.8bn, down by 1.7 percent (or QR500m), compared to QR29.3bn in Q2,2015. The y-o-y decrease in the value of imports was attributed to the decline in the imports of machinery and transport equipment by QR1.4bn, and manufactured goods classified chiefly by material by QR300m. Asia was the principal destination of Qatar’s exports and the first origin of Qatar’s imports, representing 70.8 percent and 30.7 percent, respectively, followed by the European Union, accounting for 11.8 percent and 30.7 percent respectively, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, with 9.8 percent and 17. percent, respectively.
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 On a q-o-q basis, Qatar’s total exports in Q2, 2016 declined by QR1.1bn, or 2.1 percent, compared to QR50.48bn in Q1, 2016. The y-o-y decline in the total value of exports was mainly driven by the decrease in the exports of mineral fuels. During the second quarter of this year, Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials accounted for 81 percent of total exports. The value of Qatar’s imports during Q2, 2016 declined by QR2.3bn, or 7.3 percent, compared to the previous quarter. While the y-o-y decrease in imports was mainly driven by decreases in machinery and transport equipment of QR1.4bn, or 10.5 percent, and Manufactured goods by QR300m, or 6.4 percent.
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 26 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 23 August 2016 K. Al Awadi
  • 19. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19