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NewBase 16 June 2015 - Issue No. 627 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: Natural Gas Imports Surging on Demand, Minister Says
Bloomberg + NewBase
Thse United Arab Emirates, an OPEC member that’s a net importer of natural gas, will need
increasing amounts of the fuel to burn in power plants if demand continues rising at the current
pace, the country’s
energy minister said.
“There is growth of
around 6 percent,
sometimes more, in
energy demand,” Suhail
Mohammed Al Mazrouei
said at a news
conference in Abu
Dhabi. “The concern in
the future is that we will
require huge amounts of
gas primarily coming
from imports,” he said,
without estimating the
amounts needed.
The U.A.E. is also
targeting nuclear power
and renewable sources
such as solar and wind
to create a broader base of energy supply, Mazrouei said. Like other oil-rich Middle Eastern
states, the country is providing subsidized energy to a growing population even as its revenue
from crude sales has declined. Crude prices fell by about half last year amid a supply glut.
The U.A.E. imports about 2 billion standard cubic feet a day of gas by pipeline from Qatar to meet
about 30 percent of its energy requirements, the network’s operator Dolphin Energy Ltd. said in
September. Dubai, the U.A.E.’s largest emirate after Abu Dhabi, imports liquefied natural gas by
ship at a terminal with capacity to expand to 800 million cubic feet a day, according to the
government-run Dubai Supply Authority.
Abu Dhabi plans an LNG terminal in the emirate of Fujairah to receive as much as 9 million tons of
LNG a year, or about 1.2 billion cubic feet a day, once it starts in 2018. The U.A.E. will assess the
need for additional gas imports after building this facility, Mazrouei said. The nation is the third-
biggest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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ENOC to Buy Dragon Oil for $2.6 Billion After raising bid
News Agencies + NewBase
Emirates National Oil Co. agreed to buy Dragon Oil Plc for 1.7 billion pounds ($2.6 billion), gaining
control over wells in Turkmenistan and exploration projects from Algeria to Iraq.
ENOC, which already holds 54 percent of Dubai-based Dragon, will pay 750 pence a share for the
rest, it said Monday in a statement. That’s a 47 percent premium to Dragon’s closing price on
March 13, the business day before their talks were initially disclosed, and 15 pence more than
it proposed in May.
While focused mostly on Turkmenistan, Dragon is working to expand outside Central Asia in a bid
to raise oil production to 100,000 barrels a day by next year from almost 79,000 barrels a day in
2014. The company, which has exploration assets in Iraq, Algeria and the Philippines, also won
consent from the Egyptian authorities last year to search for oil in the Gulf of Suez.
Dragon jumped as much as 9 percent in London trading, and was up 8.1 percent at 724.5 pence
as of 8:25 a.m. local time. The stock has gained more than 40 percent since March 13, valuing the
company at 3.56 billion pounds. ENOC’s offer values it at 3.7 billion pounds.
An independent committee of Dragon’s board has recommended the bid, according to the
statement. ENOC, also based in Dubai, will finance the acquisition from current cash resources.
Dragon reported sales of $1.09 billion last year. The company had free cash flow of $286 million,
25 percent lower than in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It had $1.97 billion of
cash and equivalents as of Dec. 31.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oman: Germany (MDT) wins ORPIC’s Sohar Refinery contract
Oman Observer + NewBase
German power and process engineering solutions provider MAN Diesel & Turbo (MDT) has
secured a multi-million euro contract to support a major maintenance turnaround of Oman Oil
Refineries and Petroleum Industries
Company’s (ORPIC) Sohar refinery
during the Q1-20162016.
Officials at the firm’s Deggendorf plant in
southern German announced in a
statement that they are mobilising a team
of around 100 specialists to carry out a
revamp of the refinery’s centrepiece
Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) process unit planned during the turnaround.
“This is the biggest shutdown project that (MAN Diesel & Turbo) has ever carried out, going for
both order value and the number of hours to be worked in engineering and production, and above
all on site in Oman,” said Max Kilger, Project Head at MDT’s Deggendorf plant.
“The contract with ORPIC is a major milestone in the refinery expertise offered by MAN Diesel &
Turbo SE in Deggendorf,” added Franz Kufner, Head of Apparatus Construction at MAN Diesel &
Turbo in Deggendorf.
“For example the replacement of a huge jellyfish dome will be the world’s largest RFCC revamp till
to date, with a very large diameter and an overall lifting weight of 680 tonnes. As a reference
project, this will be of strategic importance especially in the Arabian oil and gas industry in
particular,” Kufner noted in the statement.
In the 10 months leading up to the turnaround, MAN Diesel & Turbo says it has drawn up a list of
critical long-lead items that are currently being manufactured at its Deggendorf facility for eventual
installation at Sohar during the shutdown maintenance.
The list includes enormous air grids, internal
domes, and a new regenerator head with a
huge diameter and a steel weight of 250
metric tons. All these components will leave
the Deggendorf factory in South Germany in
October 2015 and make their way to Sohar
via the Danube, Black Sea, Bosporus,
Mediterranean, Suez Canal, Red Sea, Gulf
of Aden and Sea of Oman, reaching their
destination in January 2016 to be ready for
installation on site.
According to ORPIC, the revamp of the
RFCC process unit is necessary to sustain the long-term reliability of Sohar Refinery. This is
because the quality of feedstock to the RFCC Unit is expected to worsen (compared to the current
feedstock) post the completion of the turnaround in early 2016. Feedstock destined for the RFCC
Unit is expected to be heavier and more contaminated until the multibillion dollar Sohar Refinery
Improvement Project (SRIP) is completed in 2017.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Turkish minister does not envisage new Kurdish oil pipeline
Reuters
Turkey does not envisage a new pipeline being built for Kurdish oil from Iraq until an existing
pipeline between Kirkuk the Turkish Mediterranean port of
Ceyhan is working at capacity, Energy Minister Taner Yildiz
said.
Yildiz also told reporters Russia's Gazprom had given Turkey
the necessary coordinates for the planned Turkish Stream
natural gas pipeline last week. He said preliminary permission
was needed for the line's construction and that there could be
developments on the issue this week. –
Libya's oil production at 500,000 bpd
Reuters
Libya's oil production at 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to the state-run National Oil
Corporation, the country's Lana news agency reported from Tripoli.
The figure is slightly higher than the 460,000 bpd production reported last week. More than a
dozen fields in central and western Libya have closed due to protests and fighting between two
rival governments, armed factions, or by Islamic State attacks.
Two major oil ports are also closed in the North African Opec producer.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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South Korea’s Iran crude imports soar
Reuters + NewBase
South Korean imports of Iranian crude nearly doubled in May from a year ago, but its shipments
from the Opec country in the first five months of 2015 fell 2% year-on-year, meeting international
sanction requirements. South Korea and other Asian
buyers can import crude from Tehran at sanctions-
reduced rates reached in 2013. The US and five other
world powers face a June 30 deadline for a final deal
with Iran on curbing its nuclear programme.
Seoul imported 541,510 tonnes of crude from Iran last
month, or 128,041 barrels per day (bpd), compared
with 284,327 tonnes, or 67,230 bpd, a year ago,
preliminary customs data from the world’s fifth-largest
crude importer showed yesterday.
Of South Korea’s four refiners, only SK Energy Co and Hyundai Oilbank Co import Iranian oil, and
their imports fluctuate each month. Asia’s No.4 economy brought in 2.46mn tonnes, or 119,395
bpd, of crude from the Middle Eastern country between January and May this year, below 2.51mn
tonnes, or 121,868 bpd, in the same period last year.
South Korean crude
shipments from the Islamic
country in 2014 were 6.2mn
tonnes, or 124,497 bpd, down
7.1% from the 2013 average
of 134,000 bpd. South Korea
imported 136,775 tonnes from
Mexico in May, paying $56
per barrel on average,
according to Reuters
calculations based on the
customs data.
The data showed South Korea’s Mexican crude shipments stood at 688,817 tonnes, or 5mn bpd,
in January-May this year, the volume Mexican state oil company Pemex has said it exported to
two South Korean refiners, Hyundai Oilbank and GS Caltex Corp.
Pemex in May said it had signed another contract to export an additional 5mn barrels to Hyundai
Oilbank in the second half of this year. Separately a spokeswoman at SK Innovation , owner of SK
Energy, said last month that one cargo of Mexican crude was on the way to SK Energy.
From the US, South Korea imported 133,203 tonnes of condensate last month at $59.2 per barrel
on average, Reuters calculations based on the customs data showed. That marked the first
shipment from the US since Seoul brought in a combined 215,994 tonnes in September-
November 2014.
Overall, South Korea imported 12.9mn tonnes of crude last month, or 3.06mn bpd. That was
32.4% higher than the 9.76mn tonnes imported in May 2014, the customs data showed. Final data
for last month’s imports, which will include greater detail, will be available from state-run Korea
National Oil Corp later this month.
A refinery of South Korean oil
company GS Caltex in Seoul. South
Korea imported 541,510 tonnes of
crude from Iran last month.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6
Malaysian LNG Exports Decline Over 13% in April
Platts + NewBase
Malaysian LNG exports were down 13.3 percent on year in April to 1.81 mt of LNG in
April, Plattsreported Monday citing department of statistics data. April exports were down 18
percent from March.
Japan imported a total of 1.13 million mt of Malaysian LNG in April, down 13.7 percent year on
year and a sharp 27.2% drop from March, the data showed. On the receiving side, Malaysia
imported two cargoes into its 3.8 million mt/year LNG receiving terminal in Melaka on
Peninsular Malaysia, from Algeria and Qatar, Platts reported citing the data .
Japanese utilities combined hold slightly more than 13 million mt/year of long-term contracts,
meaning that Japanese buyers receive more than 1 million mt/month of LNG from Malaysia on
term contracts.
However, as of the end of March, Japanese gas utilities were reporting 1.85 million mt of LNG in
stock, a build of 47.7% from a year ago and an increase of 20.7% from February. The high
inventories have prompted Japanese buyers to lower import volumes and decrease spot
purchases. Japan's LNG imports from Malaysia were last lower in July at 881,283 mt.
On the receiving side, Malaysia imported two cargoes into its 3.8 million mt/year LNG receiving
terminal in Melaka on Peninsular Malaysia, from Algeria and Qatar, the data showed. A 67,115-mt
cargo from Algeria was imported at a price of MR123,461,495 ($33.8 million), or $9.75/MMBtu,
and BW GDF Suez Paris on April 1, Platts Flow showed.
A single cargo from Qatar arrived on the Stena Blue Sky on April 22, Platts Flow showed. Based
on Platts earlier analysis, Malaysian imports for April were previously estimated at 130,000 mt.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7
Myanmar Exports Gas Worth $170 mn Every Month
Myanmar Times
Myanmar’s monthly revenues from gas exports amount to $170 million, according to ministry of
energy data. The Southeast Asian nation exports a total of 1.6 billion cubic feet per day
to Thailand and China, Monday citing
the ministry data.
The average monthly income is
based on the average sales for the
year. Myanmar has four offshore gas
fields. Roughly 700 million cubic feet
per day (mmcfd) is exported from the
Yadana project and 325 from the
Yetagun field, both of which are
located in the Andaman Sea.
Around 360mmcfd is exported from
the Shwe gas project in the Bay of
Bengal and 240 from the Zawtika
project in the Gulf of Martaban,
according to the ministry. Myanmar
is the largest gas exporter in
Southeast Asia, with an estimated 70
percent of its output pumped to
Thailand, the newspaper said.
Thailand's GPSC looking to Gas Fired
Power Plant in Myanmar
Global Power Synergy Public
Company Limited (GPSC), part of the
PTT Group, signed a Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) to conduct a
feasibility study for a gas-fired power
generation project in
Thanlyin, Myanmar.
GPSC will partner Marubeni Corporation and
EDEN Group in the exercise, the company said
in a statement Monday. The 400MW power plant
will help support Myanmar’s energy stability in
Yangon, which has seen a significant growth in
energy demand both from the public sector and
the industry .
Such as in the Thilawa Special Economic Zone
(SEZ) and an oil refinery development project
that PTT Group is auctioning for. This project is
another key addition to GPSC’s project
development portfolio in Myanmar, which include a coal-fired and a gas-fired power projects.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8
Tanzania: Orca Exploration to proceed with first phase of the
Songo Songo development programme.. Source: Orca Exploration
Orca Exploration has announced that it is proceeding with the first phase of the Songo Songo
development programme followingWorld Bank board approval of theInternational Finance
Corporation ('IFC') financing.
IFC has received approval by the board
of World Bank for an investment by IFC
of up to US$60 million in the Company's
operating subsidiary, PanAfrican Energy
Tanzania. The investment is currently
contemplated as a subordinated, income
participating loan with flexible repayment
terms and a maximum tenor of approx.
10 years. Completion of the IFC financing
is subject to final agreement of specific
terms and the negotiation and signing of
definitive documentation. Initial
drawdown of the facility will be subject to
a number of terms and conditions,
including satisfaction by IFC of the
sustained payment performance of the
Tanzania state utility,TANESCO, in
respect of ongoing gas deliveries by the
Company.
Subsequent to the approval of the IFC
financing, the Company entered into
a drilling contract with Paragon
Offshore for the use of its M826 Mobile
Drilling Workover Rig, as well the
provision of associated services, in
order to execute the offshore phase of
the development programme for
the Songo Songo gas field. The
Paragon M826 Mobile Drilling Workover
Rig was selected to operate in the somewhat unique shallow water operating environment
around Songo Songo Island . The Company still needs to obtain certain regulatory and
contractual approvals related to certain aspects of the development programme.
The drilling contract provides for a commencement date between 1st August 2015 and 21st
September 2015 , with the exact date being the date the drilling rig arrives at the Company's first
well location in Songo Songo. The contract carries a minimum duration of 90 days and a
minimum financial commitment of US$21 million excluding withholding tax. The Company's
commitments under the drilling contract are not subject to completion of the IFC financing or
funding of such financing.
The Company currently anticipates operations commencing by September 2015 . The operations are
planned to include workovers (being the removal and replacement of production tubing strings) on three
existing wells (SS-5, SS-7 and SS-9) and the drilling of one new well (SS-J). The Company also retains
the option to drill a further two wells, subject to the success of the workovers.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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US:Shell Gets Permit to Disturb
Bloomberg + NewBase
Royal Dutch Shell Plc received U.S. approval to disturb marine mammals as part of its plan to
resume oil exploration off Alaska’s Arctic coast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an “incidental harassment
authorization,” which allows noise from air guns, icebreaking, drilling and anchor handling. The
June 12 permit, which covers July through October, doesn’t allow Shell to injure or kill any marine
life.
Shell earlier received general approval for oil exploration for the coming months from the
Department of Interior. The Hague-based company still must get a specific drilling plan from
Interior’s offshore regulator, and work around ice flows and other vagaries of being 70 miles
offshore Alaska in the Chukchi Sea.
Shell wants to resume work halted in 2012 when its main drilling rig ran aground and was lost. It
also was fined for air-pollution violations.
The Arctic seas contain an estimated 24 billion barrels of oil, according to the U.S. Geological
Survey. Shell, which discovered oil in the same part of the ocean in 1986, is the first major
explorer to return to the region since the last offshore Arctic drilling boom fizzled almost 30 years
ago amid slumping crude prices.
Environmental groups, citing the difficulties in operating in the extreme Arctic, say producing oil
there is a mistake. In addition, they say plans for mammal disturbance show that the risks are too
great to threatened species and native communities that rely on them.
“Many of America’s most beloved marine creatures thrive here, including whales, walrus, seals
and countless birds,” Cindy Shogan, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League, said in a
statement.
Curtis Smith, a spokesman for Shell, didn’t return e-mail or voice mail messages.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oil Price Drop Special Coverage
Oil prices rise as Texas braces for tropical storm
Reuters + NewBae
Crude prices rose after a cautious start today Tuesday 16 June 2015, boosted by warnings that a
tropical storm was about to hit the coast of oil producing state Texas.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a tropical storm warning on Tuesday morning at
0200 GMT (1000 ET) for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to High Island.
"On the forecast track the center ... is expected to make landfall in the warning area along the
Texas coast Tuesday morning and move inland over south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night," the NHC said, adding that strong winds, rain and some flooding were expected.
U.S. crude futures were up 63 cents at $60.15 a barrel at 0538, keeping the contract within a trend
channel of $57-$62 per barrel that has been in place since the beginning of May. Brent rose 29
cents to $64.24 per barrel.
More than 45 percent of U.S. refining capacity is located along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which is also
home to about half of total U.S. natural gas processing capability. The stronger U.S. prices meant
that Brent's premium over American crude has fallen almost 60 percent this year to around $3.70
per barrel.
Analysts said the upside potential for oil prices was limited due to ongoing oversupply. The U.S.
Energy Information Administration estimates global petroleum oversupply at 2.6 million barrels per
day at the end of the second quarter of this year, compared with just 1.05 million barrels per day in
June 2014.
"Most shale oil production in America is $80 or less for breakeven, and if drilling costs are done by
20 percent, they are profitable at $65," said Takayuki Nogami, senior economist at Japan Oil, Gas
and Metals National Corp.
"After July, an Iran deal is likely to be compiled so the market has no room for much upside, and
WTI could go below $50," he said, adding that he expected WTI to trade at $45-$65 through the
winter heating season, with Brent at a premium of around $5.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oil slump to cost GCC $240 billion in assets
BY CLEOFE MACEDA, SENIOR WEB REPORTER + NEWBASE
Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia,
stand to lose $240 billion in hard-earned assets in 2015 if oil prices will remain at low levels, or
average at $55 per barrel, for the rest of the year, an economist at a local bank said.
GCC governments have been urged to find other sources of revenue amid low oil prices, cut
subsidies and budgets, and curtail excessive government spending, to avoid job losses, project
cancellations, low bank liquidity and other economic challenges.
Alp Eke, director and senior
economist at the National Bank of
Abu Dhabi’s (NBAD) economic
department, said the biggest loss
will be incurred by Saudi Arabia,
estimated to be around $160
billion, while the UAE will lose
around $55 billion.
Oman and Bahrain are likely to
face difficulty, as well, with both
expected to sustain fiscal deficits
of -13 per cent and -13.5,
respectively. They are also
forecast to register current account
deficits of -17 per cent and -10 per
cent, respectively.
“Saudi Arabia and UAE will incur
the highest asset depletion.
However, in my opinion, UAE is
much better prepared. There is a storm going on, but UAE is very well sheltered and the economy
is highly diversified and the country does have enough net foreign assets to sustain for a longer
duration than others,” Eke told Gulf News.
“Saudi Arabia is the most vulnerable. It has a population of 31 million, close to 11 per cent national
unemployment rate. Nearly 80 per cent of the Saudi population is less than 40 years old. All these
youth will be in need of education and jobs,” Eke added.
Oil prices have slumped by more than half since September 2014. Prices continued to fall on
Thursday, as the US dollar strengthened and the World Bank slashed this year’s growth forecasts
for the global and developing economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had earlier
projected that GCC earnings from oil and gas exports are likely to drop by about $300 billion due
to the steep decline in prices.
During the oil boom, when the price of oil was still very high, billions of dirhams were pumped into
the coffers of governments in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The net foreign
assets accumulated as a result, estimated to be around $3 trillion last April, have been gradually
diminishing, as revenues from weak oil are falling substantially, while government expenditure
has not slowed down.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Data compiled by Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency (Sama) showed that in the case of Saudi Arabia
alone, the country’s reserves as of April 2015, at $686 billion, are already almost $60 billion down
from August 2014 levels ($746 billion). Saudi government deposits have already started slowing
down.
“In the past couple of years due to high level of oil prices, these countries recorded substantial
asset accumulation. However, if we assume the oil price were to remain at say $55 for the rest of
the year, and no change in planned government spending, GCC nations could experience over
$200 billion of depletion in the collective net foreign assets in 2015 alone,” a report from NBAD
said.
At current rates, Saudi Arabia has only about six years of assets remaining, but the country’s
debt-to-gross domestic product
(GDP) ratio is already quite
low. “After the assets have
been depleted, then KSA has
no option but to borrow, and
debt to GDP ratio will slowly
increase,” said Eke.
Eke noted that while assets
are diminishing, government
spending remains high.
Outgoings in Saudi Arabia,
Oman, Bahrain and UAE, in
particular, are outstripping
revenues. He suggested that
subsidies must be reduced,
budgets need to be cut and
governments should find other
ways to make money.
“GCC nations have one of the lowest oil prices in the world. Wasteful and inefficient subsidies
must be removed. Such subsidies encourage consumers to be careless and wasteful in usage.
Actually, GCC nations have started to make announcements and started to remove them. Qatar
has the lowest rate of subsidies in GCC,” Eke pointed out.
Raghu Mandagolathur, senior vice president for research at Kuwait Financial Centre Markaz,
however, said that, unlike in the past, GCC sovereigns are now in a better position to cope with
the decline in oil revenues.
“Most major Mena (Middle East and North Africa) oil exporters are much better positioned to cope
with a slump in oil prices today than they were in the 1980s and 1990s. Specifically, Saudi Arabia,
the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Algeria have ample resources to continue with their current public
spending plans,” Mandagolathur told Gulf News.
“The oil price drop would imply a large shift in the GCC’s aggregated fiscal balance from a surplus
of 11 per cent in 2013 amounting to $401 billion to a deficit of about 2 per cent in 2015 amounting
to $69 billion according to the Institute of International Finance.”
“It is expected that Kuwait, Qatar and UAE will have a fiscal surplus, albeit smaller than the
previous years. The lower realization from oil and gas exports alone is estimated at around $300
billion in 2015 for the GCC region [according to the IMF.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oil traders lose faith in rally as Opec pump at records
Bloomberg/NewBase
Speculators reduced bullish wagers on oil to the lowest level in eight weeks as Opec’s biggest
members pumped record amounts of crude.
Hedge funds trimmed their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate oil by 3.7% in the seven
days ended June 9, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Longs tumbled to
the lowest in five months. In London, bullish wagers on Brent crude dropped to the lowest in more
than two months.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are pumping record amounts of oil, the
International Energy Agency said last week. While the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting
Countries reiterated its target for the group’s output this month, in reality it has been producing
more than that for a year. The IEA also raised its estimate for non-Opec supply, underscoring
concern that the supply surplus won’t ease any time soon.
“The Opec agreement affirms the established policy, which appears to be that members can pump
as much oil as they want,” Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York,
said by phone June 12. “The IEA also revised non-Opec production because US output has been
a lot more robust than expected.”
Futures fell $1.12 to $60.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the period covered
by the CFTC report, settling at $59.96 June 12. WTI traded in an $8 range the past eight weeks
after tumbling more than $65 from June to March. Futures lost 79 cents to $59.17 at 12:29pm
London time.
The Energy Information Administration increased its outlook for 2015 US supply by 240,000
barrels a day to 9.43mn. Despite a record decline in rigs drilling for oil, first-quarter output was
higher than estimated as producers worked to reduce a backlog of uncompleted wells, the EIA
said June 9.
US drillers have reduced the number of operating oil rigs for a record 27 weeks to the lowest level
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14
in almost five years, according to Baker Hughes. “US production has beat expectations because
we’ve been focused on the weekly drilling rig data,” Evans said. “We’ve not counted on
productivity gains.”
Production will fall from June through early 2016 as supply from shale formations such as North
Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’s Eagle Ford shrinks. Shale output will drop 1.3% this month, the EIA
said June 8.
The net-long position in WTI fell by 9,106 contracts to 235,520 futures and options. Longs slipped
3.2% to 294,157, while shorts dropped 1.1%. The drop in open interest means traders “are less
likely to move the market into new territory,” Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho
Securities USA Inc in New York, said by phone. “We’ve retreated after banging against the top of
the range.”
Money managers curbed net-long positions in Brent crude, the European benchmark, for a fifth
week to their lowest level since March 24. Net-longs in futures and options combined fell by 3.4%
to 201,180 contracts in the week to June 9.
In other markets, net bullish bets on Nymex gasoline dropped 28% to 19,660, the lowest in eight
weeks. Futures rose 0.6% to $2.0771 a gallon on the exchange in the reporting period.
Net bearish wagers on US ultra low sulfur diesel increased 18% to 6,825 contracts. The fuel
slipped 1.4% to $1.9179 a gallon.
Net-short wagers on US natural gas climbed 20% to 98,664. The measure includes an index of
four contracts adjusted to futures equivalents. Nymex natural gas rose 5.5% to $2.846 per million
British thermal units.
A narrowing contango, in which near-term deliveries are cheaper than longer-dated contracts, is
laying the groundwork for a price rally, Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic
Research in Winchester, Massachusetts, said by phone June 12. Rising crude demand at
refineries and an expected decline in US production are the main causes, he said.
Refineries in the US operated at 94.6% of capacity in the week ended June 5, the highest level
since December, EIA data show. That helped shrink crude stockpiles by 6.81mn barrels to the
lowest in 11 weeks.
“Inventories should fall further in the weeks ahead, which should support prices,” Lynch said.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 11 June 2015 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16

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NewBase 627 special 16 June 2015

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 16 June 2015 - Issue No. 627 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: Natural Gas Imports Surging on Demand, Minister Says Bloomberg + NewBase Thse United Arab Emirates, an OPEC member that’s a net importer of natural gas, will need increasing amounts of the fuel to burn in power plants if demand continues rising at the current pace, the country’s energy minister said. “There is growth of around 6 percent, sometimes more, in energy demand,” Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei said at a news conference in Abu Dhabi. “The concern in the future is that we will require huge amounts of gas primarily coming from imports,” he said, without estimating the amounts needed. The U.A.E. is also targeting nuclear power and renewable sources such as solar and wind to create a broader base of energy supply, Mazrouei said. Like other oil-rich Middle Eastern states, the country is providing subsidized energy to a growing population even as its revenue from crude sales has declined. Crude prices fell by about half last year amid a supply glut. The U.A.E. imports about 2 billion standard cubic feet a day of gas by pipeline from Qatar to meet about 30 percent of its energy requirements, the network’s operator Dolphin Energy Ltd. said in September. Dubai, the U.A.E.’s largest emirate after Abu Dhabi, imports liquefied natural gas by ship at a terminal with capacity to expand to 800 million cubic feet a day, according to the government-run Dubai Supply Authority. Abu Dhabi plans an LNG terminal in the emirate of Fujairah to receive as much as 9 million tons of LNG a year, or about 1.2 billion cubic feet a day, once it starts in 2018. The U.A.E. will assess the need for additional gas imports after building this facility, Mazrouei said. The nation is the third- biggest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 ENOC to Buy Dragon Oil for $2.6 Billion After raising bid News Agencies + NewBase Emirates National Oil Co. agreed to buy Dragon Oil Plc for 1.7 billion pounds ($2.6 billion), gaining control over wells in Turkmenistan and exploration projects from Algeria to Iraq. ENOC, which already holds 54 percent of Dubai-based Dragon, will pay 750 pence a share for the rest, it said Monday in a statement. That’s a 47 percent premium to Dragon’s closing price on March 13, the business day before their talks were initially disclosed, and 15 pence more than it proposed in May. While focused mostly on Turkmenistan, Dragon is working to expand outside Central Asia in a bid to raise oil production to 100,000 barrels a day by next year from almost 79,000 barrels a day in 2014. The company, which has exploration assets in Iraq, Algeria and the Philippines, also won consent from the Egyptian authorities last year to search for oil in the Gulf of Suez. Dragon jumped as much as 9 percent in London trading, and was up 8.1 percent at 724.5 pence as of 8:25 a.m. local time. The stock has gained more than 40 percent since March 13, valuing the company at 3.56 billion pounds. ENOC’s offer values it at 3.7 billion pounds. An independent committee of Dragon’s board has recommended the bid, according to the statement. ENOC, also based in Dubai, will finance the acquisition from current cash resources. Dragon reported sales of $1.09 billion last year. The company had free cash flow of $286 million, 25 percent lower than in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It had $1.97 billion of cash and equivalents as of Dec. 31.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Oman: Germany (MDT) wins ORPIC’s Sohar Refinery contract Oman Observer + NewBase German power and process engineering solutions provider MAN Diesel & Turbo (MDT) has secured a multi-million euro contract to support a major maintenance turnaround of Oman Oil Refineries and Petroleum Industries Company’s (ORPIC) Sohar refinery during the Q1-20162016. Officials at the firm’s Deggendorf plant in southern German announced in a statement that they are mobilising a team of around 100 specialists to carry out a revamp of the refinery’s centrepiece Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) process unit planned during the turnaround. “This is the biggest shutdown project that (MAN Diesel & Turbo) has ever carried out, going for both order value and the number of hours to be worked in engineering and production, and above all on site in Oman,” said Max Kilger, Project Head at MDT’s Deggendorf plant. “The contract with ORPIC is a major milestone in the refinery expertise offered by MAN Diesel & Turbo SE in Deggendorf,” added Franz Kufner, Head of Apparatus Construction at MAN Diesel & Turbo in Deggendorf. “For example the replacement of a huge jellyfish dome will be the world’s largest RFCC revamp till to date, with a very large diameter and an overall lifting weight of 680 tonnes. As a reference project, this will be of strategic importance especially in the Arabian oil and gas industry in particular,” Kufner noted in the statement. In the 10 months leading up to the turnaround, MAN Diesel & Turbo says it has drawn up a list of critical long-lead items that are currently being manufactured at its Deggendorf facility for eventual installation at Sohar during the shutdown maintenance. The list includes enormous air grids, internal domes, and a new regenerator head with a huge diameter and a steel weight of 250 metric tons. All these components will leave the Deggendorf factory in South Germany in October 2015 and make their way to Sohar via the Danube, Black Sea, Bosporus, Mediterranean, Suez Canal, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Sea of Oman, reaching their destination in January 2016 to be ready for installation on site. According to ORPIC, the revamp of the RFCC process unit is necessary to sustain the long-term reliability of Sohar Refinery. This is because the quality of feedstock to the RFCC Unit is expected to worsen (compared to the current feedstock) post the completion of the turnaround in early 2016. Feedstock destined for the RFCC Unit is expected to be heavier and more contaminated until the multibillion dollar Sohar Refinery Improvement Project (SRIP) is completed in 2017.
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Turkish minister does not envisage new Kurdish oil pipeline Reuters Turkey does not envisage a new pipeline being built for Kurdish oil from Iraq until an existing pipeline between Kirkuk the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan is working at capacity, Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said. Yildiz also told reporters Russia's Gazprom had given Turkey the necessary coordinates for the planned Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline last week. He said preliminary permission was needed for the line's construction and that there could be developments on the issue this week. – Libya's oil production at 500,000 bpd Reuters Libya's oil production at 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to the state-run National Oil Corporation, the country's Lana news agency reported from Tripoli. The figure is slightly higher than the 460,000 bpd production reported last week. More than a dozen fields in central and western Libya have closed due to protests and fighting between two rival governments, armed factions, or by Islamic State attacks. Two major oil ports are also closed in the North African Opec producer.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 South Korea’s Iran crude imports soar Reuters + NewBase South Korean imports of Iranian crude nearly doubled in May from a year ago, but its shipments from the Opec country in the first five months of 2015 fell 2% year-on-year, meeting international sanction requirements. South Korea and other Asian buyers can import crude from Tehran at sanctions- reduced rates reached in 2013. The US and five other world powers face a June 30 deadline for a final deal with Iran on curbing its nuclear programme. Seoul imported 541,510 tonnes of crude from Iran last month, or 128,041 barrels per day (bpd), compared with 284,327 tonnes, or 67,230 bpd, a year ago, preliminary customs data from the world’s fifth-largest crude importer showed yesterday. Of South Korea’s four refiners, only SK Energy Co and Hyundai Oilbank Co import Iranian oil, and their imports fluctuate each month. Asia’s No.4 economy brought in 2.46mn tonnes, or 119,395 bpd, of crude from the Middle Eastern country between January and May this year, below 2.51mn tonnes, or 121,868 bpd, in the same period last year. South Korean crude shipments from the Islamic country in 2014 were 6.2mn tonnes, or 124,497 bpd, down 7.1% from the 2013 average of 134,000 bpd. South Korea imported 136,775 tonnes from Mexico in May, paying $56 per barrel on average, according to Reuters calculations based on the customs data. The data showed South Korea’s Mexican crude shipments stood at 688,817 tonnes, or 5mn bpd, in January-May this year, the volume Mexican state oil company Pemex has said it exported to two South Korean refiners, Hyundai Oilbank and GS Caltex Corp. Pemex in May said it had signed another contract to export an additional 5mn barrels to Hyundai Oilbank in the second half of this year. Separately a spokeswoman at SK Innovation , owner of SK Energy, said last month that one cargo of Mexican crude was on the way to SK Energy. From the US, South Korea imported 133,203 tonnes of condensate last month at $59.2 per barrel on average, Reuters calculations based on the customs data showed. That marked the first shipment from the US since Seoul brought in a combined 215,994 tonnes in September- November 2014. Overall, South Korea imported 12.9mn tonnes of crude last month, or 3.06mn bpd. That was 32.4% higher than the 9.76mn tonnes imported in May 2014, the customs data showed. Final data for last month’s imports, which will include greater detail, will be available from state-run Korea National Oil Corp later this month. A refinery of South Korean oil company GS Caltex in Seoul. South Korea imported 541,510 tonnes of crude from Iran last month.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Malaysian LNG Exports Decline Over 13% in April Platts + NewBase Malaysian LNG exports were down 13.3 percent on year in April to 1.81 mt of LNG in April, Plattsreported Monday citing department of statistics data. April exports were down 18 percent from March. Japan imported a total of 1.13 million mt of Malaysian LNG in April, down 13.7 percent year on year and a sharp 27.2% drop from March, the data showed. On the receiving side, Malaysia imported two cargoes into its 3.8 million mt/year LNG receiving terminal in Melaka on Peninsular Malaysia, from Algeria and Qatar, Platts reported citing the data . Japanese utilities combined hold slightly more than 13 million mt/year of long-term contracts, meaning that Japanese buyers receive more than 1 million mt/month of LNG from Malaysia on term contracts. However, as of the end of March, Japanese gas utilities were reporting 1.85 million mt of LNG in stock, a build of 47.7% from a year ago and an increase of 20.7% from February. The high inventories have prompted Japanese buyers to lower import volumes and decrease spot purchases. Japan's LNG imports from Malaysia were last lower in July at 881,283 mt. On the receiving side, Malaysia imported two cargoes into its 3.8 million mt/year LNG receiving terminal in Melaka on Peninsular Malaysia, from Algeria and Qatar, the data showed. A 67,115-mt cargo from Algeria was imported at a price of MR123,461,495 ($33.8 million), or $9.75/MMBtu, and BW GDF Suez Paris on April 1, Platts Flow showed. A single cargo from Qatar arrived on the Stena Blue Sky on April 22, Platts Flow showed. Based on Platts earlier analysis, Malaysian imports for April were previously estimated at 130,000 mt.
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Myanmar Exports Gas Worth $170 mn Every Month Myanmar Times Myanmar’s monthly revenues from gas exports amount to $170 million, according to ministry of energy data. The Southeast Asian nation exports a total of 1.6 billion cubic feet per day to Thailand and China, Monday citing the ministry data. The average monthly income is based on the average sales for the year. Myanmar has four offshore gas fields. Roughly 700 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) is exported from the Yadana project and 325 from the Yetagun field, both of which are located in the Andaman Sea. Around 360mmcfd is exported from the Shwe gas project in the Bay of Bengal and 240 from the Zawtika project in the Gulf of Martaban, according to the ministry. Myanmar is the largest gas exporter in Southeast Asia, with an estimated 70 percent of its output pumped to Thailand, the newspaper said. Thailand's GPSC looking to Gas Fired Power Plant in Myanmar Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (GPSC), part of the PTT Group, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to conduct a feasibility study for a gas-fired power generation project in Thanlyin, Myanmar. GPSC will partner Marubeni Corporation and EDEN Group in the exercise, the company said in a statement Monday. The 400MW power plant will help support Myanmar’s energy stability in Yangon, which has seen a significant growth in energy demand both from the public sector and the industry . Such as in the Thilawa Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and an oil refinery development project that PTT Group is auctioning for. This project is another key addition to GPSC’s project development portfolio in Myanmar, which include a coal-fired and a gas-fired power projects.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Tanzania: Orca Exploration to proceed with first phase of the Songo Songo development programme.. Source: Orca Exploration Orca Exploration has announced that it is proceeding with the first phase of the Songo Songo development programme followingWorld Bank board approval of theInternational Finance Corporation ('IFC') financing. IFC has received approval by the board of World Bank for an investment by IFC of up to US$60 million in the Company's operating subsidiary, PanAfrican Energy Tanzania. The investment is currently contemplated as a subordinated, income participating loan with flexible repayment terms and a maximum tenor of approx. 10 years. Completion of the IFC financing is subject to final agreement of specific terms and the negotiation and signing of definitive documentation. Initial drawdown of the facility will be subject to a number of terms and conditions, including satisfaction by IFC of the sustained payment performance of the Tanzania state utility,TANESCO, in respect of ongoing gas deliveries by the Company. Subsequent to the approval of the IFC financing, the Company entered into a drilling contract with Paragon Offshore for the use of its M826 Mobile Drilling Workover Rig, as well the provision of associated services, in order to execute the offshore phase of the development programme for the Songo Songo gas field. The Paragon M826 Mobile Drilling Workover Rig was selected to operate in the somewhat unique shallow water operating environment around Songo Songo Island . The Company still needs to obtain certain regulatory and contractual approvals related to certain aspects of the development programme. The drilling contract provides for a commencement date between 1st August 2015 and 21st September 2015 , with the exact date being the date the drilling rig arrives at the Company's first well location in Songo Songo. The contract carries a minimum duration of 90 days and a minimum financial commitment of US$21 million excluding withholding tax. The Company's commitments under the drilling contract are not subject to completion of the IFC financing or funding of such financing. The Company currently anticipates operations commencing by September 2015 . The operations are planned to include workovers (being the removal and replacement of production tubing strings) on three existing wells (SS-5, SS-7 and SS-9) and the drilling of one new well (SS-J). The Company also retains the option to drill a further two wells, subject to the success of the workovers.
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 US:Shell Gets Permit to Disturb Bloomberg + NewBase Royal Dutch Shell Plc received U.S. approval to disturb marine mammals as part of its plan to resume oil exploration off Alaska’s Arctic coast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an “incidental harassment authorization,” which allows noise from air guns, icebreaking, drilling and anchor handling. The June 12 permit, which covers July through October, doesn’t allow Shell to injure or kill any marine life. Shell earlier received general approval for oil exploration for the coming months from the Department of Interior. The Hague-based company still must get a specific drilling plan from Interior’s offshore regulator, and work around ice flows and other vagaries of being 70 miles offshore Alaska in the Chukchi Sea. Shell wants to resume work halted in 2012 when its main drilling rig ran aground and was lost. It also was fined for air-pollution violations. The Arctic seas contain an estimated 24 billion barrels of oil, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Shell, which discovered oil in the same part of the ocean in 1986, is the first major explorer to return to the region since the last offshore Arctic drilling boom fizzled almost 30 years ago amid slumping crude prices. Environmental groups, citing the difficulties in operating in the extreme Arctic, say producing oil there is a mistake. In addition, they say plans for mammal disturbance show that the risks are too great to threatened species and native communities that rely on them. “Many of America’s most beloved marine creatures thrive here, including whales, walrus, seals and countless birds,” Cindy Shogan, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League, said in a statement. Curtis Smith, a spokesman for Shell, didn’t return e-mail or voice mail messages.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 Oil Price Drop Special Coverage Oil prices rise as Texas braces for tropical storm Reuters + NewBae Crude prices rose after a cautious start today Tuesday 16 June 2015, boosted by warnings that a tropical storm was about to hit the coast of oil producing state Texas. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a tropical storm warning on Tuesday morning at 0200 GMT (1000 ET) for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to High Island. "On the forecast track the center ... is expected to make landfall in the warning area along the Texas coast Tuesday morning and move inland over south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night," the NHC said, adding that strong winds, rain and some flooding were expected. U.S. crude futures were up 63 cents at $60.15 a barrel at 0538, keeping the contract within a trend channel of $57-$62 per barrel that has been in place since the beginning of May. Brent rose 29 cents to $64.24 per barrel. More than 45 percent of U.S. refining capacity is located along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which is also home to about half of total U.S. natural gas processing capability. The stronger U.S. prices meant that Brent's premium over American crude has fallen almost 60 percent this year to around $3.70 per barrel. Analysts said the upside potential for oil prices was limited due to ongoing oversupply. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates global petroleum oversupply at 2.6 million barrels per day at the end of the second quarter of this year, compared with just 1.05 million barrels per day in June 2014. "Most shale oil production in America is $80 or less for breakeven, and if drilling costs are done by 20 percent, they are profitable at $65," said Takayuki Nogami, senior economist at Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp. "After July, an Iran deal is likely to be compiled so the market has no room for much upside, and WTI could go below $50," he said, adding that he expected WTI to trade at $45-$65 through the winter heating season, with Brent at a premium of around $5.
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Oil slump to cost GCC $240 billion in assets BY CLEOFE MACEDA, SENIOR WEB REPORTER + NEWBASE Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, stand to lose $240 billion in hard-earned assets in 2015 if oil prices will remain at low levels, or average at $55 per barrel, for the rest of the year, an economist at a local bank said. GCC governments have been urged to find other sources of revenue amid low oil prices, cut subsidies and budgets, and curtail excessive government spending, to avoid job losses, project cancellations, low bank liquidity and other economic challenges. Alp Eke, director and senior economist at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi’s (NBAD) economic department, said the biggest loss will be incurred by Saudi Arabia, estimated to be around $160 billion, while the UAE will lose around $55 billion. Oman and Bahrain are likely to face difficulty, as well, with both expected to sustain fiscal deficits of -13 per cent and -13.5, respectively. They are also forecast to register current account deficits of -17 per cent and -10 per cent, respectively. “Saudi Arabia and UAE will incur the highest asset depletion. However, in my opinion, UAE is much better prepared. There is a storm going on, but UAE is very well sheltered and the economy is highly diversified and the country does have enough net foreign assets to sustain for a longer duration than others,” Eke told Gulf News. “Saudi Arabia is the most vulnerable. It has a population of 31 million, close to 11 per cent national unemployment rate. Nearly 80 per cent of the Saudi population is less than 40 years old. All these youth will be in need of education and jobs,” Eke added. Oil prices have slumped by more than half since September 2014. Prices continued to fall on Thursday, as the US dollar strengthened and the World Bank slashed this year’s growth forecasts for the global and developing economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had earlier projected that GCC earnings from oil and gas exports are likely to drop by about $300 billion due to the steep decline in prices. During the oil boom, when the price of oil was still very high, billions of dirhams were pumped into the coffers of governments in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The net foreign assets accumulated as a result, estimated to be around $3 trillion last April, have been gradually diminishing, as revenues from weak oil are falling substantially, while government expenditure has not slowed down.
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 Data compiled by Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency (Sama) showed that in the case of Saudi Arabia alone, the country’s reserves as of April 2015, at $686 billion, are already almost $60 billion down from August 2014 levels ($746 billion). Saudi government deposits have already started slowing down. “In the past couple of years due to high level of oil prices, these countries recorded substantial asset accumulation. However, if we assume the oil price were to remain at say $55 for the rest of the year, and no change in planned government spending, GCC nations could experience over $200 billion of depletion in the collective net foreign assets in 2015 alone,” a report from NBAD said. At current rates, Saudi Arabia has only about six years of assets remaining, but the country’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is already quite low. “After the assets have been depleted, then KSA has no option but to borrow, and debt to GDP ratio will slowly increase,” said Eke. Eke noted that while assets are diminishing, government spending remains high. Outgoings in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and UAE, in particular, are outstripping revenues. He suggested that subsidies must be reduced, budgets need to be cut and governments should find other ways to make money. “GCC nations have one of the lowest oil prices in the world. Wasteful and inefficient subsidies must be removed. Such subsidies encourage consumers to be careless and wasteful in usage. Actually, GCC nations have started to make announcements and started to remove them. Qatar has the lowest rate of subsidies in GCC,” Eke pointed out. Raghu Mandagolathur, senior vice president for research at Kuwait Financial Centre Markaz, however, said that, unlike in the past, GCC sovereigns are now in a better position to cope with the decline in oil revenues. “Most major Mena (Middle East and North Africa) oil exporters are much better positioned to cope with a slump in oil prices today than they were in the 1980s and 1990s. Specifically, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Algeria have ample resources to continue with their current public spending plans,” Mandagolathur told Gulf News. “The oil price drop would imply a large shift in the GCC’s aggregated fiscal balance from a surplus of 11 per cent in 2013 amounting to $401 billion to a deficit of about 2 per cent in 2015 amounting to $69 billion according to the Institute of International Finance.” “It is expected that Kuwait, Qatar and UAE will have a fiscal surplus, albeit smaller than the previous years. The lower realization from oil and gas exports alone is estimated at around $300 billion in 2015 for the GCC region [according to the IMF.”
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Oil traders lose faith in rally as Opec pump at records Bloomberg/NewBase Speculators reduced bullish wagers on oil to the lowest level in eight weeks as Opec’s biggest members pumped record amounts of crude. Hedge funds trimmed their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate oil by 3.7% in the seven days ended June 9, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Longs tumbled to the lowest in five months. In London, bullish wagers on Brent crude dropped to the lowest in more than two months. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are pumping record amounts of oil, the International Energy Agency said last week. While the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries reiterated its target for the group’s output this month, in reality it has been producing more than that for a year. The IEA also raised its estimate for non-Opec supply, underscoring concern that the supply surplus won’t ease any time soon. “The Opec agreement affirms the established policy, which appears to be that members can pump as much oil as they want,” Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York, said by phone June 12. “The IEA also revised non-Opec production because US output has been a lot more robust than expected.” Futures fell $1.12 to $60.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the period covered by the CFTC report, settling at $59.96 June 12. WTI traded in an $8 range the past eight weeks after tumbling more than $65 from June to March. Futures lost 79 cents to $59.17 at 12:29pm London time. The Energy Information Administration increased its outlook for 2015 US supply by 240,000 barrels a day to 9.43mn. Despite a record decline in rigs drilling for oil, first-quarter output was higher than estimated as producers worked to reduce a backlog of uncompleted wells, the EIA said June 9. US drillers have reduced the number of operating oil rigs for a record 27 weeks to the lowest level
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 in almost five years, according to Baker Hughes. “US production has beat expectations because we’ve been focused on the weekly drilling rig data,” Evans said. “We’ve not counted on productivity gains.” Production will fall from June through early 2016 as supply from shale formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’s Eagle Ford shrinks. Shale output will drop 1.3% this month, the EIA said June 8. The net-long position in WTI fell by 9,106 contracts to 235,520 futures and options. Longs slipped 3.2% to 294,157, while shorts dropped 1.1%. The drop in open interest means traders “are less likely to move the market into new territory,” Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc in New York, said by phone. “We’ve retreated after banging against the top of the range.” Money managers curbed net-long positions in Brent crude, the European benchmark, for a fifth week to their lowest level since March 24. Net-longs in futures and options combined fell by 3.4% to 201,180 contracts in the week to June 9. In other markets, net bullish bets on Nymex gasoline dropped 28% to 19,660, the lowest in eight weeks. Futures rose 0.6% to $2.0771 a gallon on the exchange in the reporting period. Net bearish wagers on US ultra low sulfur diesel increased 18% to 6,825 contracts. The fuel slipped 1.4% to $1.9179 a gallon. Net-short wagers on US natural gas climbed 20% to 98,664. The measure includes an index of four contracts adjusted to futures equivalents. Nymex natural gas rose 5.5% to $2.846 per million British thermal units. A narrowing contango, in which near-term deliveries are cheaper than longer-dated contracts, is laying the groundwork for a price rally, Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts, said by phone June 12. Rising crude demand at refineries and an expected decline in US production are the main causes, he said. Refineries in the US operated at 94.6% of capacity in the week ended June 5, the highest level since December, EIA data show. That helped shrink crude stockpiles by 6.81mn barrels to the lowest in 11 weeks. “Inventories should fall further in the weeks ahead, which should support prices,” Lynch said.
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 11 June 2015 K. Al Awadi
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16