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NewBase Energy News 01 June 2016 - Issue No. 862 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Saudi energy minister shows he takes OPEC seriously
REUTERS
When the oil producer group holds its half-yearly meetings, what time the ministers arrive in
Vienna, how they speak and which hotel they stay in - anything will be analysed in an attempt to
predict its policies.
So it was seen as a sign that new Saudi Energy
Minister Khalid al-Falih takes OPEC seriously
when he turned up in the Austrian capital on
Monday, three days before the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries' upcoming
discussions.
But Falih will have little opportunity to see fellow
ministers ahead of Thursday's meeting. Many of
them, including those from Iran and Venezuela,
won't show up in Vienna until midday or even late
on Wednesday.
For veteran OPEC watcher Gary Ross, founder of New York-based consultancy PIRA, that
signals expectations should be low as far as OPEC policy is concerned. "These guys are not
exactly getting along these days," Ross said. "OPEC is becoming far less important. We are
entering an era when market management will be non-existent".
One exception to the later arrivals was UAE Oil Minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, who
told journalists in Vienna on Tuesday that he was happy with the oil market, suggesting OPEC
should refrain from action at this week's meeting.
"We need to wait. The market will fix itself to a price that is fair to the consumers and the
producers," Mazroui said. "This year is a year of correction. The rules of the market, that is supply
and demand, are working and I think that is the essence of this policy."
OPEC last decided to change output in December 2008, when it cut supply amid slowing demand
due to a global financial crisis. By contrast, between 1998 and 2008, OPEC made 27 changes to
output.
For decades, Saudi Arabia, Vienna-based OPEC's largest producer and de facto leader, had a
preferred range for oil prices and, if unhappy, would try to orchestrate a group-wide production cut
or increase.
But a technology-driven spike in non-OPEC output such as that of U.S. shale and growing fuel
efficiency led Riyadh to conclude that the era of fast oil growth might be ending.
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In the past two years, Riyadh has stuck to a strategy of fighting for market share, thinking that
pumping more oil now at low prices is better than producing less in the future.
"We think continuity will carry the day at the June OPEC meeting in Vienna. The only real
uncertainty is how divisive the meeting will be and how much discord will be put on public display,"
said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
FIGHT FOR SHARE
Unlike his predecessor, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi, Falih has a much larger portfolio
overseeing energy, industry, mining, atomic power and renewables.
On Tuesday, Falih visited OPEC headquarters to meet Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri,
staying for 90 minutes in a clear display that despite being a busy man, he has time for the
producer group.
"There are times when you need OPEC and when you don't. You only need OPEC when you
have major oversupply and OPEC doesn't want prices to crash any further," Ross said. Oil prices
have recovered to around $50 per barrel in recent weeks from their lowest in a decade of $27 per
barrel in January - but are still far below the $115 seen in June 2014.
Prices crashed after Saudi Arabia increased production to an all-time high to fight for market share
with higher-cost producers, including U.S. shale firms. The drop in prices also badly hurt fellow
OPEC members, with production declining from Nigeria to Venezuela.
Iraq and Iran, however, kept pushing production higher as Baghdad sees recent investments by
oil majors pay off and Tehran regains market share after the lifting of some Western sanctions in
January.
Falih's ultimate boss, Saudi Deputy Crown Price Mohammad bin Salman, has said Saudi Arabia
may raise production further if other members don't restrain their output increases.
"As long as Mohammed bin Salman is in charge, I don't think anything reasonable (OPEC action)
can happen. This policy has hurt not only the exporting countries, but companies and the
industry," a non-Gulf delegate said.
OPEC Policy
OPEC’s policy of giving the market time to balance itself has proven to work but it still needs some
time for proper balance, UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei said on Twitter after his arrival in Vienna.
“The market is still in correction mode and the signs are positive.”
The oil market is “doing good,” Emmanuel Ibe
Kachikwu, Nigeria’s minister of state for petroleum
resources, said on arrival in Vienna on Tuesday.
However, it is “too early” to say whether oil prices are
recovering.
Nigeria is “absolutely” confident about its candidate to
replace OPEC Secretary General Abdulla El-Badri.
Nigeria’s candidate, Mohammed Barkindo, briefly
headed the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. and was
OPEC’s acting secretary-general in 2006 after serving
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for a number of years as one of the country’s representatives to the producers’ group.
OPEC will consider whether West African oil producer Gabon should rejoin the group at its
meeting on Thursday, according to three people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be
identified. Gabon was a member of OPEC from 1975-1994. The country pumped 215,000 barrels
a day of crude oil in October, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, which would make it
OPEC’s smallest producer.
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Libya: Technip awarded major natural gas field development
contract in Mediterranean Sea ,, Source: Technip
Technip has been awarded a major contract to develop the Bahr Essalam, Phase II
development in the Central Mediterranean Sea. This natural gas field development, which is
operated by Mellitah Oil & Gas Libyan Branch, a consortium between National Oil
Corporation and ENI North Africa, will be tied back to the Sabratha platform, which is situated
approx. 110km off the Libyan coast in a water depth of approx. 190m.
From concept to project delivery, Technip will build on its integrated model combining its subsea
and offshore capabilities. The overall scope of work will see Technip perform the overall design,
detailed engineering and deliver the project management, as well as procurement, installation, tie-
ins, pre-commissioning and commissioning.
This will be associated with the provision of a gas gathering system, comprised of production
pipelines, subsea isolation valve (SSIV), umbilicals, as well as extensive diving and installation
campaigns. It will also include modifications to the Sabratha platform regarding the topsides. All
offshore mobilisations will be undertaken from Malta.
Offshore installation is scheduled for the second half of 2017 through to the second half of 2018. A
range of vessels from the Group’s fleet will be involved, including Deep Energy Pipelay vessel,
Deep Arctic Diving Support Vessel, and G1200 S-Lay vessel.
Thierry Pilenko, Chairman and CEO, commented:
'We are proud of this contract award, which is a strong recognition of Technip’s broad capabilities
across a variety of areas. It is also testament to our team’s ability to adapt to the challenging
market environment, and to provide solutions that still enable field developments.
We very much look forward to working with Mellitah to safely and successfully deliver this large
project, by leveraging our strong know-how and experience in high-quality product manufacturing
and subsea installation.'
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India:Westinghouse to get new site for nuclear plant, More plans
Reuters
Toshiba’s Westinghouse Electric will relocate a planned project to build six nuclear reactors in
India, said officials, bringing the first deal stemming from a US-India civil nuclear accord struck
over a decade ago closer to reality.
The six AP-1000 reactors
would be built in the southern
state of Andhra Pradesh, after
the original site proposed for
the multi-billion-dollar project,
in prime minister Narendra
Modi’s home state of Gujarat,
faced local opposition.
The breakthrough comes
ahead of a June 7-8 visit by
Mr Modi to Washington,
where he will be hosted by
president Barack Obama for a
final summit before the US
presidential election in
November, and will address
both houses of Congress.
US lawmakers ratified the civil
nuclear accord three years
after it was struck in 2005, as
part of an attempt to deepen
the strategic relationship with
India, but have expressed
growing dismay over its
failure to yield follow-on deals
for US-based reactor makers
like Westinghouse.
One obstacle was bringing
India’s liability rules into line
with international norms,
which require the costs of an
accident to be channelled to
the operator rather than the
maker of a nuclear power station.
But, following the announcement of a “breakthrough understanding" on
nuclear cooperation during Mr Obama’s visit to India in January 2015,
this issue has been resolved to the satisfaction of the US government
and it is down to commercial partners to nail down a deal.
India wants to dramatically increase its nuclear capacity to 63,000MW
by 2032 to meet growing demand and restrict its reliance on fossil fuels,
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and has struck a series of accords with other countries to help meet that goal.
Russia’s Rosatom operates two reactors at Kudankulam, in Tamil Nadu, while France’s EDF
signed a preliminary deal with the state-owned Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) in
January to build six reactors at Jaitapur, Maharashtra.
Indian federal and state officials confirmed that NPCIL, which would operate the plants, had made
a down payment on 2,000 acres of land in the eastern coastal district of Shrikakulam.
“The land acquisition was stuck for over a decade, but now it’s coming to a conclusion," Ajay Jain,
energy secretary of Andhra Pradesh, said, adding the purchase would close this year.
“Construction can begin in 2017."
Ninety per cent of local farmers had agreed to sell their land, they were being well compensated
and no court cases were pending, Mr Jain added.
Two sources, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, confirmed that the site was
being acquired for Westinghouse, which plans to build six AP-1000 pressurised water reactors,
each with a design capacity of around 1,100 megawatts.
Westinghouse did not respond to requests for comment, while senior executives at NPCIL were
not available.
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Malaysia:SapuraKencana Petroleum Makes Significant Gas Discoveries
Natural Gas Asia
SapuraKencana Petroleum has made two significant gas discoveries from its three well 2015
drilling campaign within the Block SK408, offshore Malaysia.
The first well, Jerun-1 is located about 5km north of the 2014 Bakong gas discovery. The well has
an interpreted gross gas column of approximately 800m in the primary target reservoir and is a
multi-TCF gas discovery, the company said Tuesday.
Jeremin-1, the second well, located approximately 15km west of the F9 gas field encountered a
104m gross gas column. Putat-1, located about 20km north of the Cili Padi gas field is confirmed
as a dry hole.
These two wells, Jerun-1 and Jeremin-1 together with the earlier five discoveries within the SK408
block are close to existing infrastructure supplying gas to one of the world’s largest LNG facilities
at Bintulu, Sarawak.
SapuraKencana is the operator with a 40 percent working interest with partners PETRONAS
Carigali 30 percent and Sarawak Shell 30 percent holding the remaining interest.
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China’s diesel exports grow, driven by changes in its economy
and refining industry.Source: U.S. EIA, based on China General Administration of Customs and Bloomberg
Chinese exports of diesel began to increase rapidly in 2015, driven by a structural shift in China's
economy—which is reducing diesel demand—and by reforms in China's refining sector, which are
contributing to increased refinery utilization and diesel production. These two factors have pushed
Chinese net diesel exports higher, to more than 300,000 barrels per day in April.
Current low prices in global diesel markets can be attributed to slow demand growth, high
inventories as a result of reduced winter heating demand in the United States and Europe, and
from new or expanded refinery capacity in the Middle East designed to maximize diesel
production.
Particularly relevant to the Asia-Pacific market is the emergence of China as a growing net
exporter of diesel. China was a key driver of diesel demand growth over the past several decades
but is now a net diesel exporter, contributing to the growing oversupply in global diesel markets.
China's economy is gradually shifting from heavy manufacturing to commercial services and
personal domestic consumption. As part of this transition, demand for gasoline and jet fuel has
grown more than the demand for diesel.
Chinese refineries—which tend to have high diesel yields—increased refinery runs to meet
demand for gasoline. Slower demand growth for diesel combined with increased coproduction of
diesel has resulted in high inventories and increased supply in China.
China is currently reforming its refining sector by liberalizing import and export restrictions on
crude oil and petroleum products. This reform allows increased competition in the domestic
transportation fuels market.
Most of China's refining capacity is run by two large state-owned enterprises (SOEs), PetroChina
and Sinopec, which together account for 72% of China's total refining capacity. The remaining
refining capacity is controlled by independent regional companies that often run small, less-
complex refineries, commonly known as teapots or teakettles.
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To improve the efficiency of these independent refineries and to increase competition in its
domestic fuels markets, China began granting crude oil import licenses to some of the
independent regional companies in July 2015.
Previously, independent refiners mainly imported and processed heavy fuel oil, a lower-quality
feedstock compared to crude oil, and had limited access to some domestically produced crudes.
Many of China's independent refineries are located in northeastern Shandong province and
receive crude oil imports from the port city of Qingdao.
Qingdao's crude oil imports as a share of total Chinese crude oil imports reached 31% in April,
the highest share since data became available in 2011.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on China General Administration of Customs and Bloomberg
Refining crude oil instead of fuel oil allows the independent refineries to improve efficiency and to
produce a slate of higher-value products, such as gasoline and jet fuel. Higher output of these
products is increasing competition with the SOE refineries and decreasing SOE market share in
regions with independent
refineries.
The supplies of diesel produced
at SOE refineries, which would
normally have been delivered to
serve those regions, must now
find alternative markets through
exports. To alleviate the over-
supply situation, China began to
increase the export quota for all
petroleum products in 2015, with
the most recent quota
announcements for 2016 at
double the amount allowed
during the same period last year.
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China Oil Refinery lists Name Capacity
(bbl/day)
State
SINOPEC Anqing Company Refinery 110000 Anhui
SINOPEC Beijing Yanshan Company Refinery 165000 Beijing
CNCP (PetroChina) Lanzhou Refinery 112000 Gansu
SINOPEC CPCC Guangzhou Branch Refinery 150000 Guangdong
SINOPEC Maoming Company Refinery 265000 Guangdong
SINOPEC Beihai Company Refinery 12000 Guangxi Zhuang
SINOPEC Cangzhou Company Refinery 70000 Hebei
CNCP (PetroChina) Daqing Petrochemical Refinery 122000 Heilongjiang
SINOPEC Luoyang Company 100000 Henan
SINOPEC Jingmen Company 100000 Hubei
SINOPEC Wuhan Company Refinery 80000 Hubei
SINOPEC CPCC Changling Company Refinery 100000 Hunan
SINOPEC Jinling Company Refinery 265000 Jiangsu
SINOPEC Jiujiang Company Refinery 98000 Jiangxi
CNCP (PetroChina) Jilin Chemical Refinery 115000 Jilin
CNCP (PetroChina) Dalian Petrochemical Refinery 144000 Liaoning
CNCP (PetroChina) Fushun Petrochemical Refinery 186000 Liaoning
CNCP (PetroChina) Jinxi Refinery 112000 Liaoning
CNCP (PetroChina) Jinzhou Petrochemical Refinery 112000 Liaoning
WEPEC Dalain Refinery 200000 Liaoning
SINOPEC Jinan Company 21000 Shandong
SINOPEC Qilu Company Refinery 195000 Shandong
SINOPEC Shanghai Gaoqiao Oil Refinery 220000 Shanghai
SINOPEC Tianjin Company Refinery 100000 Tianjin
CNCP (PetroChina) Dushanzi Refinery 120000 Xinjiang Uygur
CNCP (PetroChina) Urumqi Petrochemical 101000 Xinjiang Uygur
SINOPEC Zhenhai Refinery 345000 Zhejiang
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NewBase 01 June 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil prices fall on rising Middle East output, China demand concerns
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices fell early on Wednesday as production from the major Middle East exporters was
expected to remain high or even increase just as concerns over the state of China's economy
weighed on its fuel demand outlook.
International benchmark Brent crude oil futures were trading at $49.59 per barrel at 0041
GMT, down 30 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last settlement. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures were down 23 cents, or 0.47 percent, at $48.87 a barrel.
Traders said that the dips were a result of the prospect of rising output from Middle East members
of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which meets this week in
Vienna to discuss its market policy, which most analysts say will continue to focus on defending
market share instead of propping up prices by controlling output.
"Many OPEC members ... have plans to grow, so cutting supply now may interfere with those
objectives," Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients.
Many Middle East oil producers, including top exporter Saudi Arabia but also Iraq, Iran and the
United Arab Emirates have ramped up their supplies to Asia in an aggressive fight for market
share.
But on the demand side, Morgan Stanley said that it was worried about China's economic health.
"Our economists’ worry that April data showed China may be slowing ... The oil demand data from
China should reinforce those concerns," the U.S. bank said.
Oil price special
coverage
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British bank Barclays said that there were also signs of "investor fatigue" in oil markets following
months of heavy inflows.
A Reuter’s poll this week showed that most oil investors expect only limited potential for further
price gains this year as production continues to outpace demand.
Despite this, oil prices have risen over 20 percent, or almost $10 dollar per barrel, since early
April, largely because of supply disruptions across the globe, and especially in Africa and Canada,
and as overall demand remains strong despite China's slowing economy.
In the United States, the world's top oil consumer, demand increased by 2 percent in March,
compared to the same month last year, to 19.6 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest seasonal
level since 2008, according to Barclays.
Oil Set for Longest Losing Streak in 6 Weeks Before OPEC Meeting
Bloomberg - Stephen Stapczynski sstapczynski
Oil slipped a fourth day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers
gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. Futures fell as
much as 0.7 percent in New York, after declining 0.9 percent the previous three sessions.
Canadian oil-sand producers, including Suncor Energy Inc., began resuming operations after
wildfire threats eased, while supply disruptions continued to reduce output in Nigerian and Libya.
The global oversupply that caused prices to slump since 2014 is correcting itself, the United Arab
Emirates oil minister said in Vienna on Tuesday.
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Oil has surged about 85 percent since touching a 12-year low in February on signs the global
surplus is easing amid declining output. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is
unlikely to reach an agreement limiting production this week as the group sticks with Saudi
Arabia’s strategy of squeezing out rivals, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
“There is very low expectations for anything constructive to come out of this meeting,” Angus
Nicholson, a markets analyst in Melbourne at IG Ltd., said by phone. “The base-case scenario will
be a continuation of Saudi Arabia’s recent announcement where they refuse to commit to any sort
of supply freeze if Iran is not party to it.”
West Texas Intermediate for July delivery fell as much 35 cents to $48.75 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange and was at $48.99 at 11:09 a.m. Tokyo time. The contract dropped 23
cents to close at $49.10 on Tuesday. Total volume traded was 46 percent below the 100-day
average.
Renewed Optimism
Brent for August settlement fell as much as 0.7 percent to $49.53 a barrel on the London-based
ICE Futures Europe exchange. The July contract expired Tuesday after slipping 7 cents to $49.69
a barrel. The global benchmark crude traded at a 31-cent premium to WTI for August.
U.A.E. Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei’s comments -- the first by an OPEC minister this week
ahead of their meeting on Thursday -- suggest renewed optimism among producers. He also said
on Twitter OPEC’s policy of giving the market time to balance itself has proven to work but it still
needs some time for proper balance.
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 01 June 2016
Is Opec relevant in an oil market of falling prices and overproduction?
The Guardian- Debbie Carlson
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ inability to reach consensus amid low point
in commodity cycle comes under question before 2 June meeting
The two biggest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, have stood firm on retaining market share
rather than setting prices by adjusting production. Photograph: Hasan Jamali/AP
As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meets on 2 June, questions are
rising about the oil cartel’s continuing relevance.
Many Opec members have suffered as the oil price has
collapsed and countries, most notably Saudi Arabia and
Iran, have fought to retain market share rather than set
prices by adjusting production.
Crude-oil prices briefly fell under $30 a barrel for both Brent
and West Texas Intermediate earlier this year, but have
rebounded, with values touching $50 for Brent Thursday.
Unarguably the price war has hurt the US shale industry as
many Opec members had wanted. Increased demand because of the low prices is adding to their
optimism that the price war has worked. The higher prices mean oil producers can breathe a little
easier, although even at $50 those prices aren’t making money.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said Opec’s mission to grab market
share is working. Opec can say that the fundamental outlook is improving and that there isn’t
much they need to do to balance the market, he added.
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Opec isn’t expected to change their stated quota of is 31.5m barrels a day, although it is routinely
pumping extra 1m barrels daily above target. The two biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and Iran,
are likely to stand firm on their production goals.
Iran has repeatedly said it wants to return to the previous output levels it had prior to the west’s
sanctions on its nuclear activity. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to cut its daily output of about 9.5m
barrels since other Opec members are also overproducing.
“Expectations are that there will be no agreement. There won’t suddenly be a coming of minds
between Saudi Arabia and Iran ... But it’s a consensus group and there’s no consensus to do
anything,” said Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citi Research.
The lack of consensus has many in the oil market questioning whether Opec remains relevant any
more, especially as non-Opec producers like the US are a big part of the global oil market now.
“My thought has been that Opec has less control over oil prices than they have any time in the
past 40 years. And circumstances emerged that make it very difficult for them to agree on pricing
policy because of what has resulted from investments over the last decade,” Morse said, referring
to shale-oil production from hydraulic fracturing.
John England, vice-chairman, US and Americas oil and gas leader for Deloitte, said the global oil
surplus created by Opec overproduction and US shale output left Opec in a tricky position.
“Suppliers have more power in times of scarcity. Right now we’re perceived to be in a time of
abundance in terms of oil supply ... The inability to reach consensus has limited their ability to
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impact the market the way they have in the past. So I think they’ve been less relevant,” England
said. But Opec is not dead, he adds, noting they have weathered commodity cycles before.
Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank, agreed that for now the cartel seems
obsolete, but when total supply and demand become balanced, Opec may become important
again.
A balanced market could
happen by year’s end, they
said. US production is
forecast to fall 8.5% this
year from 2015’s record
level of 9.4m barrels daily,
the US Department of
Energy’s statistical arm,
Energy Information Service,
said. By 2017, EIA
forecasts output will be
down 13% from 2015’s high
because of lower prices
brought on by the supply
glut.
The EIA sees the excess global supply reaching 1m barrels a day this year, but falling to 200,000
in 2017 as consumption rises and supply falls.
Because of falling US production and rising demand, analysts lifted their oil-price forecasts, with
Commerzbank estimating average 2016 Brent and WTI prices at $50, and Citi in the mid-$50s for
Brent.
Even with more global oil players, Melek dismissed ideas that Opec is no longer relevant.
“The fact that they’ve made statements that they’re pursuing market share and these types of
polices have made them incredibly important. They’ve moved the market. It’s just that we didn’t
see the prices go up, we saw them go down. It doesn’t diminish their power,” he said.
2 June will be the first meeting for Khalid al-Falih, the new Saudi oil minister. He is unlikely to
deviate from the current market-share policy, as Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown price Mohammed
bin Salman seems to be calling the shots with his recently announced Vision 2030 plan for the
kingdom to move away from oil dependency.
“Saudi Arabia doesn’t want to become a failed petrostate. That’s the stated objective, to find a way
for the economy to prosper, even in a low-price environment,” Morse said.
That means Saudi Arabia may want to pump as much as it can as it transforms its economy.
“(If) you can see the end of the life of petroleum in the world economy, then maximizing production
makes sense because the more you hold oil in the ground, the less value it will have over time,”
he said.
Opec may have won the latest price war but with even Saudi Arabia thinking of a life beyond
petroleum, its future looks far from certain.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 01 June 2016 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18

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New base energy news issue 863 dated 01 june 2016

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 01 June 2016 - Issue No. 862 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Saudi energy minister shows he takes OPEC seriously REUTERS When the oil producer group holds its half-yearly meetings, what time the ministers arrive in Vienna, how they speak and which hotel they stay in - anything will be analysed in an attempt to predict its policies. So it was seen as a sign that new Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih takes OPEC seriously when he turned up in the Austrian capital on Monday, three days before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' upcoming discussions. But Falih will have little opportunity to see fellow ministers ahead of Thursday's meeting. Many of them, including those from Iran and Venezuela, won't show up in Vienna until midday or even late on Wednesday. For veteran OPEC watcher Gary Ross, founder of New York-based consultancy PIRA, that signals expectations should be low as far as OPEC policy is concerned. "These guys are not exactly getting along these days," Ross said. "OPEC is becoming far less important. We are entering an era when market management will be non-existent". One exception to the later arrivals was UAE Oil Minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, who told journalists in Vienna on Tuesday that he was happy with the oil market, suggesting OPEC should refrain from action at this week's meeting. "We need to wait. The market will fix itself to a price that is fair to the consumers and the producers," Mazroui said. "This year is a year of correction. The rules of the market, that is supply and demand, are working and I think that is the essence of this policy." OPEC last decided to change output in December 2008, when it cut supply amid slowing demand due to a global financial crisis. By contrast, between 1998 and 2008, OPEC made 27 changes to output. For decades, Saudi Arabia, Vienna-based OPEC's largest producer and de facto leader, had a preferred range for oil prices and, if unhappy, would try to orchestrate a group-wide production cut or increase. But a technology-driven spike in non-OPEC output such as that of U.S. shale and growing fuel efficiency led Riyadh to conclude that the era of fast oil growth might be ending.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 In the past two years, Riyadh has stuck to a strategy of fighting for market share, thinking that pumping more oil now at low prices is better than producing less in the future. "We think continuity will carry the day at the June OPEC meeting in Vienna. The only real uncertainty is how divisive the meeting will be and how much discord will be put on public display," said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. FIGHT FOR SHARE Unlike his predecessor, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi, Falih has a much larger portfolio overseeing energy, industry, mining, atomic power and renewables. On Tuesday, Falih visited OPEC headquarters to meet Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri, staying for 90 minutes in a clear display that despite being a busy man, he has time for the producer group. "There are times when you need OPEC and when you don't. You only need OPEC when you have major oversupply and OPEC doesn't want prices to crash any further," Ross said. Oil prices have recovered to around $50 per barrel in recent weeks from their lowest in a decade of $27 per barrel in January - but are still far below the $115 seen in June 2014. Prices crashed after Saudi Arabia increased production to an all-time high to fight for market share with higher-cost producers, including U.S. shale firms. The drop in prices also badly hurt fellow OPEC members, with production declining from Nigeria to Venezuela. Iraq and Iran, however, kept pushing production higher as Baghdad sees recent investments by oil majors pay off and Tehran regains market share after the lifting of some Western sanctions in January. Falih's ultimate boss, Saudi Deputy Crown Price Mohammad bin Salman, has said Saudi Arabia may raise production further if other members don't restrain their output increases. "As long as Mohammed bin Salman is in charge, I don't think anything reasonable (OPEC action) can happen. This policy has hurt not only the exporting countries, but companies and the industry," a non-Gulf delegate said. OPEC Policy OPEC’s policy of giving the market time to balance itself has proven to work but it still needs some time for proper balance, UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei said on Twitter after his arrival in Vienna. “The market is still in correction mode and the signs are positive.” The oil market is “doing good,” Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria’s minister of state for petroleum resources, said on arrival in Vienna on Tuesday. However, it is “too early” to say whether oil prices are recovering. Nigeria is “absolutely” confident about its candidate to replace OPEC Secretary General Abdulla El-Badri. Nigeria’s candidate, Mohammed Barkindo, briefly headed the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. and was OPEC’s acting secretary-general in 2006 after serving
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 for a number of years as one of the country’s representatives to the producers’ group. OPEC will consider whether West African oil producer Gabon should rejoin the group at its meeting on Thursday, according to three people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified. Gabon was a member of OPEC from 1975-1994. The country pumped 215,000 barrels a day of crude oil in October, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, which would make it OPEC’s smallest producer.
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Libya: Technip awarded major natural gas field development contract in Mediterranean Sea ,, Source: Technip Technip has been awarded a major contract to develop the Bahr Essalam, Phase II development in the Central Mediterranean Sea. This natural gas field development, which is operated by Mellitah Oil & Gas Libyan Branch, a consortium between National Oil Corporation and ENI North Africa, will be tied back to the Sabratha platform, which is situated approx. 110km off the Libyan coast in a water depth of approx. 190m. From concept to project delivery, Technip will build on its integrated model combining its subsea and offshore capabilities. The overall scope of work will see Technip perform the overall design, detailed engineering and deliver the project management, as well as procurement, installation, tie- ins, pre-commissioning and commissioning. This will be associated with the provision of a gas gathering system, comprised of production pipelines, subsea isolation valve (SSIV), umbilicals, as well as extensive diving and installation campaigns. It will also include modifications to the Sabratha platform regarding the topsides. All offshore mobilisations will be undertaken from Malta. Offshore installation is scheduled for the second half of 2017 through to the second half of 2018. A range of vessels from the Group’s fleet will be involved, including Deep Energy Pipelay vessel, Deep Arctic Diving Support Vessel, and G1200 S-Lay vessel. Thierry Pilenko, Chairman and CEO, commented: 'We are proud of this contract award, which is a strong recognition of Technip’s broad capabilities across a variety of areas. It is also testament to our team’s ability to adapt to the challenging market environment, and to provide solutions that still enable field developments. We very much look forward to working with Mellitah to safely and successfully deliver this large project, by leveraging our strong know-how and experience in high-quality product manufacturing and subsea installation.'
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 India:Westinghouse to get new site for nuclear plant, More plans Reuters Toshiba’s Westinghouse Electric will relocate a planned project to build six nuclear reactors in India, said officials, bringing the first deal stemming from a US-India civil nuclear accord struck over a decade ago closer to reality. The six AP-1000 reactors would be built in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, after the original site proposed for the multi-billion-dollar project, in prime minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, faced local opposition. The breakthrough comes ahead of a June 7-8 visit by Mr Modi to Washington, where he will be hosted by president Barack Obama for a final summit before the US presidential election in November, and will address both houses of Congress. US lawmakers ratified the civil nuclear accord three years after it was struck in 2005, as part of an attempt to deepen the strategic relationship with India, but have expressed growing dismay over its failure to yield follow-on deals for US-based reactor makers like Westinghouse. One obstacle was bringing India’s liability rules into line with international norms, which require the costs of an accident to be channelled to the operator rather than the maker of a nuclear power station. But, following the announcement of a “breakthrough understanding" on nuclear cooperation during Mr Obama’s visit to India in January 2015, this issue has been resolved to the satisfaction of the US government and it is down to commercial partners to nail down a deal. India wants to dramatically increase its nuclear capacity to 63,000MW by 2032 to meet growing demand and restrict its reliance on fossil fuels,
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 and has struck a series of accords with other countries to help meet that goal. Russia’s Rosatom operates two reactors at Kudankulam, in Tamil Nadu, while France’s EDF signed a preliminary deal with the state-owned Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) in January to build six reactors at Jaitapur, Maharashtra. Indian federal and state officials confirmed that NPCIL, which would operate the plants, had made a down payment on 2,000 acres of land in the eastern coastal district of Shrikakulam. “The land acquisition was stuck for over a decade, but now it’s coming to a conclusion," Ajay Jain, energy secretary of Andhra Pradesh, said, adding the purchase would close this year. “Construction can begin in 2017." Ninety per cent of local farmers had agreed to sell their land, they were being well compensated and no court cases were pending, Mr Jain added. Two sources, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, confirmed that the site was being acquired for Westinghouse, which plans to build six AP-1000 pressurised water reactors, each with a design capacity of around 1,100 megawatts. Westinghouse did not respond to requests for comment, while senior executives at NPCIL were not available.
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Malaysia:SapuraKencana Petroleum Makes Significant Gas Discoveries Natural Gas Asia SapuraKencana Petroleum has made two significant gas discoveries from its three well 2015 drilling campaign within the Block SK408, offshore Malaysia. The first well, Jerun-1 is located about 5km north of the 2014 Bakong gas discovery. The well has an interpreted gross gas column of approximately 800m in the primary target reservoir and is a multi-TCF gas discovery, the company said Tuesday. Jeremin-1, the second well, located approximately 15km west of the F9 gas field encountered a 104m gross gas column. Putat-1, located about 20km north of the Cili Padi gas field is confirmed as a dry hole. These two wells, Jerun-1 and Jeremin-1 together with the earlier five discoveries within the SK408 block are close to existing infrastructure supplying gas to one of the world’s largest LNG facilities at Bintulu, Sarawak. SapuraKencana is the operator with a 40 percent working interest with partners PETRONAS Carigali 30 percent and Sarawak Shell 30 percent holding the remaining interest.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 China’s diesel exports grow, driven by changes in its economy and refining industry.Source: U.S. EIA, based on China General Administration of Customs and Bloomberg Chinese exports of diesel began to increase rapidly in 2015, driven by a structural shift in China's economy—which is reducing diesel demand—and by reforms in China's refining sector, which are contributing to increased refinery utilization and diesel production. These two factors have pushed Chinese net diesel exports higher, to more than 300,000 barrels per day in April. Current low prices in global diesel markets can be attributed to slow demand growth, high inventories as a result of reduced winter heating demand in the United States and Europe, and from new or expanded refinery capacity in the Middle East designed to maximize diesel production. Particularly relevant to the Asia-Pacific market is the emergence of China as a growing net exporter of diesel. China was a key driver of diesel demand growth over the past several decades but is now a net diesel exporter, contributing to the growing oversupply in global diesel markets. China's economy is gradually shifting from heavy manufacturing to commercial services and personal domestic consumption. As part of this transition, demand for gasoline and jet fuel has grown more than the demand for diesel. Chinese refineries—which tend to have high diesel yields—increased refinery runs to meet demand for gasoline. Slower demand growth for diesel combined with increased coproduction of diesel has resulted in high inventories and increased supply in China. China is currently reforming its refining sector by liberalizing import and export restrictions on crude oil and petroleum products. This reform allows increased competition in the domestic transportation fuels market. Most of China's refining capacity is run by two large state-owned enterprises (SOEs), PetroChina and Sinopec, which together account for 72% of China's total refining capacity. The remaining refining capacity is controlled by independent regional companies that often run small, less- complex refineries, commonly known as teapots or teakettles.
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 To improve the efficiency of these independent refineries and to increase competition in its domestic fuels markets, China began granting crude oil import licenses to some of the independent regional companies in July 2015. Previously, independent refiners mainly imported and processed heavy fuel oil, a lower-quality feedstock compared to crude oil, and had limited access to some domestically produced crudes. Many of China's independent refineries are located in northeastern Shandong province and receive crude oil imports from the port city of Qingdao. Qingdao's crude oil imports as a share of total Chinese crude oil imports reached 31% in April, the highest share since data became available in 2011. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on China General Administration of Customs and Bloomberg Refining crude oil instead of fuel oil allows the independent refineries to improve efficiency and to produce a slate of higher-value products, such as gasoline and jet fuel. Higher output of these products is increasing competition with the SOE refineries and decreasing SOE market share in regions with independent refineries. The supplies of diesel produced at SOE refineries, which would normally have been delivered to serve those regions, must now find alternative markets through exports. To alleviate the over- supply situation, China began to increase the export quota for all petroleum products in 2015, with the most recent quota announcements for 2016 at double the amount allowed during the same period last year.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 China Oil Refinery lists Name Capacity (bbl/day) State SINOPEC Anqing Company Refinery 110000 Anhui SINOPEC Beijing Yanshan Company Refinery 165000 Beijing CNCP (PetroChina) Lanzhou Refinery 112000 Gansu SINOPEC CPCC Guangzhou Branch Refinery 150000 Guangdong SINOPEC Maoming Company Refinery 265000 Guangdong SINOPEC Beihai Company Refinery 12000 Guangxi Zhuang SINOPEC Cangzhou Company Refinery 70000 Hebei CNCP (PetroChina) Daqing Petrochemical Refinery 122000 Heilongjiang SINOPEC Luoyang Company 100000 Henan SINOPEC Jingmen Company 100000 Hubei SINOPEC Wuhan Company Refinery 80000 Hubei SINOPEC CPCC Changling Company Refinery 100000 Hunan SINOPEC Jinling Company Refinery 265000 Jiangsu SINOPEC Jiujiang Company Refinery 98000 Jiangxi CNCP (PetroChina) Jilin Chemical Refinery 115000 Jilin CNCP (PetroChina) Dalian Petrochemical Refinery 144000 Liaoning CNCP (PetroChina) Fushun Petrochemical Refinery 186000 Liaoning CNCP (PetroChina) Jinxi Refinery 112000 Liaoning CNCP (PetroChina) Jinzhou Petrochemical Refinery 112000 Liaoning WEPEC Dalain Refinery 200000 Liaoning SINOPEC Jinan Company 21000 Shandong SINOPEC Qilu Company Refinery 195000 Shandong SINOPEC Shanghai Gaoqiao Oil Refinery 220000 Shanghai SINOPEC Tianjin Company Refinery 100000 Tianjin CNCP (PetroChina) Dushanzi Refinery 120000 Xinjiang Uygur CNCP (PetroChina) Urumqi Petrochemical 101000 Xinjiang Uygur SINOPEC Zhenhai Refinery 345000 Zhejiang
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 NewBase 01 June 2016 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil prices fall on rising Middle East output, China demand concerns Reuters + NewBase Oil prices fell early on Wednesday as production from the major Middle East exporters was expected to remain high or even increase just as concerns over the state of China's economy weighed on its fuel demand outlook. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures were trading at $49.59 per barrel at 0041 GMT, down 30 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last settlement. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 23 cents, or 0.47 percent, at $48.87 a barrel. Traders said that the dips were a result of the prospect of rising output from Middle East members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which meets this week in Vienna to discuss its market policy, which most analysts say will continue to focus on defending market share instead of propping up prices by controlling output. "Many OPEC members ... have plans to grow, so cutting supply now may interfere with those objectives," Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients. Many Middle East oil producers, including top exporter Saudi Arabia but also Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have ramped up their supplies to Asia in an aggressive fight for market share. But on the demand side, Morgan Stanley said that it was worried about China's economic health. "Our economists’ worry that April data showed China may be slowing ... The oil demand data from China should reinforce those concerns," the U.S. bank said. Oil price special coverage
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 British bank Barclays said that there were also signs of "investor fatigue" in oil markets following months of heavy inflows. A Reuter’s poll this week showed that most oil investors expect only limited potential for further price gains this year as production continues to outpace demand. Despite this, oil prices have risen over 20 percent, or almost $10 dollar per barrel, since early April, largely because of supply disruptions across the globe, and especially in Africa and Canada, and as overall demand remains strong despite China's slowing economy. In the United States, the world's top oil consumer, demand increased by 2 percent in March, compared to the same month last year, to 19.6 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest seasonal level since 2008, according to Barclays. Oil Set for Longest Losing Streak in 6 Weeks Before OPEC Meeting Bloomberg - Stephen Stapczynski sstapczynski Oil slipped a fourth day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. Futures fell as much as 0.7 percent in New York, after declining 0.9 percent the previous three sessions. Canadian oil-sand producers, including Suncor Energy Inc., began resuming operations after wildfire threats eased, while supply disruptions continued to reduce output in Nigerian and Libya. The global oversupply that caused prices to slump since 2014 is correcting itself, the United Arab Emirates oil minister said in Vienna on Tuesday.
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Oil has surged about 85 percent since touching a 12-year low in February on signs the global surplus is easing amid declining output. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to reach an agreement limiting production this week as the group sticks with Saudi Arabia’s strategy of squeezing out rivals, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. “There is very low expectations for anything constructive to come out of this meeting,” Angus Nicholson, a markets analyst in Melbourne at IG Ltd., said by phone. “The base-case scenario will be a continuation of Saudi Arabia’s recent announcement where they refuse to commit to any sort of supply freeze if Iran is not party to it.” West Texas Intermediate for July delivery fell as much 35 cents to $48.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $48.99 at 11:09 a.m. Tokyo time. The contract dropped 23 cents to close at $49.10 on Tuesday. Total volume traded was 46 percent below the 100-day average. Renewed Optimism Brent for August settlement fell as much as 0.7 percent to $49.53 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The July contract expired Tuesday after slipping 7 cents to $49.69 a barrel. The global benchmark crude traded at a 31-cent premium to WTI for August. U.A.E. Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei’s comments -- the first by an OPEC minister this week ahead of their meeting on Thursday -- suggest renewed optimism among producers. He also said on Twitter OPEC’s policy of giving the market time to balance itself has proven to work but it still needs some time for proper balance.
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 01 June 2016 Is Opec relevant in an oil market of falling prices and overproduction? The Guardian- Debbie Carlson The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ inability to reach consensus amid low point in commodity cycle comes under question before 2 June meeting The two biggest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, have stood firm on retaining market share rather than setting prices by adjusting production. Photograph: Hasan Jamali/AP As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meets on 2 June, questions are rising about the oil cartel’s continuing relevance. Many Opec members have suffered as the oil price has collapsed and countries, most notably Saudi Arabia and Iran, have fought to retain market share rather than set prices by adjusting production. Crude-oil prices briefly fell under $30 a barrel for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate earlier this year, but have rebounded, with values touching $50 for Brent Thursday. Unarguably the price war has hurt the US shale industry as many Opec members had wanted. Increased demand because of the low prices is adding to their optimism that the price war has worked. The higher prices mean oil producers can breathe a little easier, although even at $50 those prices aren’t making money. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said Opec’s mission to grab market share is working. Opec can say that the fundamental outlook is improving and that there isn’t much they need to do to balance the market, he added.
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Opec isn’t expected to change their stated quota of is 31.5m barrels a day, although it is routinely pumping extra 1m barrels daily above target. The two biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, are likely to stand firm on their production goals. Iran has repeatedly said it wants to return to the previous output levels it had prior to the west’s sanctions on its nuclear activity. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to cut its daily output of about 9.5m barrels since other Opec members are also overproducing. “Expectations are that there will be no agreement. There won’t suddenly be a coming of minds between Saudi Arabia and Iran ... But it’s a consensus group and there’s no consensus to do anything,” said Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citi Research. The lack of consensus has many in the oil market questioning whether Opec remains relevant any more, especially as non-Opec producers like the US are a big part of the global oil market now. “My thought has been that Opec has less control over oil prices than they have any time in the past 40 years. And circumstances emerged that make it very difficult for them to agree on pricing policy because of what has resulted from investments over the last decade,” Morse said, referring to shale-oil production from hydraulic fracturing. John England, vice-chairman, US and Americas oil and gas leader for Deloitte, said the global oil surplus created by Opec overproduction and US shale output left Opec in a tricky position. “Suppliers have more power in times of scarcity. Right now we’re perceived to be in a time of abundance in terms of oil supply ... The inability to reach consensus has limited their ability to
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 impact the market the way they have in the past. So I think they’ve been less relevant,” England said. But Opec is not dead, he adds, noting they have weathered commodity cycles before. Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank, agreed that for now the cartel seems obsolete, but when total supply and demand become balanced, Opec may become important again. A balanced market could happen by year’s end, they said. US production is forecast to fall 8.5% this year from 2015’s record level of 9.4m barrels daily, the US Department of Energy’s statistical arm, Energy Information Service, said. By 2017, EIA forecasts output will be down 13% from 2015’s high because of lower prices brought on by the supply glut. The EIA sees the excess global supply reaching 1m barrels a day this year, but falling to 200,000 in 2017 as consumption rises and supply falls. Because of falling US production and rising demand, analysts lifted their oil-price forecasts, with Commerzbank estimating average 2016 Brent and WTI prices at $50, and Citi in the mid-$50s for Brent. Even with more global oil players, Melek dismissed ideas that Opec is no longer relevant. “The fact that they’ve made statements that they’re pursuing market share and these types of polices have made them incredibly important. They’ve moved the market. It’s just that we didn’t see the prices go up, we saw them go down. It doesn’t diminish their power,” he said. 2 June will be the first meeting for Khalid al-Falih, the new Saudi oil minister. He is unlikely to deviate from the current market-share policy, as Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown price Mohammed bin Salman seems to be calling the shots with his recently announced Vision 2030 plan for the kingdom to move away from oil dependency. “Saudi Arabia doesn’t want to become a failed petrostate. That’s the stated objective, to find a way for the economy to prosper, even in a low-price environment,” Morse said. That means Saudi Arabia may want to pump as much as it can as it transforms its economy. “(If) you can see the end of the life of petroleum in the world economy, then maximizing production makes sense because the more you hold oil in the ground, the less value it will have over time,” he said. Opec may have won the latest price war but with even Saudi Arabia thinking of a life beyond petroleum, its future looks far from certain.
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 01 June 2016 K. Al Awadi
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18