SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Navigating Uncertainty
when Launching New Ideas
keithhopper.com/uncertainty
@khopper
Uncertainty doesn’t stop success
#1: Know your purpose
#2: Know your risks
#3: Know your mindset
#4: Know how to plan
#5: Know yourself
#6: Know how to fail
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
#1: Know your purpose
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
“We need to stop users from abandoning our
shopping cart”
“We want more customers to go paperless”
“Our online advertising rates are plummeting
and we need revenue to support content
production.”
Articulate a clear problem statement
Knowing your purpose permits
different solution approaches
without losing your way.
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
#2: Know your risks
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
Desirability
(human)
Feasibility
(technical)
Viability
(business)
Risks hide inside bad assumptions
“Very few startups fail for lack of
technology. They almost always fail
for lack of customers”
- Steve Blank
“There’s one thing that kills startups:
not making something users want”
- Paul Graham
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
Prioritize your assumptions
Test your assumptions
Knowing your risks lets you
unravel them early.
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
#3: Know your mindset
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
target customer
market needs
solution shape
communication
scale
reliability
infrastructure
predictability
safety
maintenance
cost
insights
evidence
hypotheses
unknowns
what-ifs
assumptions
surprises
EXPLORER
MINDSET
BUILDER
MINDSET
VS.
Knowing your mindset helps suggest
the appropriate actions to take.
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
*
#4: Know how to plan
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
Take your position regularly and course-correct
VALUE
TIME
Re-plan to eliminate diminishing value
Knowing how to plan allows for
course-corrections and helps ensure
you hit your destination.
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
#5: Know yourself
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
Small teams ensure shared values
Use a learning framework. Be deliberate.
REFLECT
IDENTIFY
IMPROVEMENT
ENACT
CHANGE
ASSESS
RESULTS
When the team knows itself
anything is possible.
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
*
#6: Know how to fail
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
All startups know disappointment
Anything is possible
“Success is going from
failure to failure without
a loss of enthusiasm”
Knowing how to fail ensures you
get back up.
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
#1: Knowing your purpose permits different solution
approaches without losing your way.
#2: Knowing your risks lets you unravel them early.
#3: Knowing your mindset helps suggest the appropriate
actions to take.
#4: Knowing how to plan allows for course-corrections
and helps ensure you hit your destination.
#5: When the team knows itself anything is possible.
#6: Knowing how to fail ensures you get back up.
SIX SECRETS TO NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
keithhopper.com/uncertainty
'Installation (Banana Peel)', Adriana Lara, 2008

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Start Writing Groovy
Start Writing GroovyStart Writing Groovy
Start Writing Groovy
Evgeny Goldin
 
LA Chef for OpenStack Hackday
LA Chef for OpenStack HackdayLA Chef for OpenStack Hackday
LA Chef for OpenStack Hackday
Matt Ray
 
Thinking Mobile First
Thinking Mobile FirstThinking Mobile First
Thinking Mobile First
Jordan Harper
 
BioBankCloud: Machine Learning on Genomics + GA4GH @ Med at Scale
BioBankCloud: Machine Learning on Genomics + GA4GH  @ Med at ScaleBioBankCloud: Machine Learning on Genomics + GA4GH  @ Med at Scale
BioBankCloud: Machine Learning on Genomics + GA4GH @ Med at Scale
Andy Petrella
 
Presentación taller 1
Presentación taller 1Presentación taller 1
Presentación taller 1
Carlos Ríos Lemos
 
Brief Encounter: London Zoo
Brief Encounter: London ZooBrief Encounter: London Zoo
Brief Encounter: London Zoo
Earnest
 
Understanding the Big Picture of e-Science
Understanding the Big Picture of e-ScienceUnderstanding the Big Picture of e-Science
Understanding the Big Picture of e-Science
Andrew Sallans
 
Parvat Pradesh Mein Pavas
Parvat Pradesh Mein PavasParvat Pradesh Mein Pavas
Parvat Pradesh Mein Pavas
zainul2002
 
Ngan hang-thuong-mai 2
Ngan hang-thuong-mai 2Ngan hang-thuong-mai 2
Ngan hang-thuong-mai 2
Nguyễn Ngọc Phan Văn
 
Icsi transformation 11-13 sept - agra
Icsi transformation   11-13 sept - agraIcsi transformation   11-13 sept - agra
Icsi transformation 11-13 sept - agraPavan Kumar Vijay
 
The Clientshare Academy Briefing - Gold Membership - by Practice Paradox
The Clientshare Academy Briefing - Gold Membership - by Practice ParadoxThe Clientshare Academy Briefing - Gold Membership - by Practice Paradox
The Clientshare Academy Briefing - Gold Membership - by Practice Paradox
Practice Paradox
 
Britney spears
Britney spearsBritney spears
Britney spearstcaple
 
F.Blin IFLA Trend Report English_dk
F.Blin IFLA Trend Report English_dkF.Blin IFLA Trend Report English_dk
F.Blin IFLA Trend Report English_dk
Frederic Blin
 
Our changing state: the realities of austerity and devolution
Our changing state: the realities of austerity and devolutionOur changing state: the realities of austerity and devolution
Our changing state: the realities of austerity and devolution
Browne Jacobson LLP
 
Ivc filter lawsuits slideshare
Ivc filter lawsuits slideshareIvc filter lawsuits slideshare
Ivc filter lawsuits slideshare
Melanie Kross
 
Alex CV Short Selection_email
Alex CV Short Selection_emailAlex CV Short Selection_email
Alex CV Short Selection_emailAlex Matovic
 
Créer et afficher une tag list sur scoop.it
Créer et afficher une tag list sur scoop.itCréer et afficher une tag list sur scoop.it
Créer et afficher une tag list sur scoop.itThierry Zenou
 
Urn nbn fi_jyu-201001221061
Urn nbn fi_jyu-201001221061Urn nbn fi_jyu-201001221061
Urn nbn fi_jyu-201001221061Maarit Marttila
 
Geo aumentaty
Geo aumentatyGeo aumentaty
Geo aumentaty
ecordoba7
 
Nailing a Job Interview
Nailing a Job InterviewNailing a Job Interview
Nailing a Job Interview
Brian Junyor
 

Viewers also liked (20)

Start Writing Groovy
Start Writing GroovyStart Writing Groovy
Start Writing Groovy
 
LA Chef for OpenStack Hackday
LA Chef for OpenStack HackdayLA Chef for OpenStack Hackday
LA Chef for OpenStack Hackday
 
Thinking Mobile First
Thinking Mobile FirstThinking Mobile First
Thinking Mobile First
 
BioBankCloud: Machine Learning on Genomics + GA4GH @ Med at Scale
BioBankCloud: Machine Learning on Genomics + GA4GH  @ Med at ScaleBioBankCloud: Machine Learning on Genomics + GA4GH  @ Med at Scale
BioBankCloud: Machine Learning on Genomics + GA4GH @ Med at Scale
 
Presentación taller 1
Presentación taller 1Presentación taller 1
Presentación taller 1
 
Brief Encounter: London Zoo
Brief Encounter: London ZooBrief Encounter: London Zoo
Brief Encounter: London Zoo
 
Understanding the Big Picture of e-Science
Understanding the Big Picture of e-ScienceUnderstanding the Big Picture of e-Science
Understanding the Big Picture of e-Science
 
Parvat Pradesh Mein Pavas
Parvat Pradesh Mein PavasParvat Pradesh Mein Pavas
Parvat Pradesh Mein Pavas
 
Ngan hang-thuong-mai 2
Ngan hang-thuong-mai 2Ngan hang-thuong-mai 2
Ngan hang-thuong-mai 2
 
Icsi transformation 11-13 sept - agra
Icsi transformation   11-13 sept - agraIcsi transformation   11-13 sept - agra
Icsi transformation 11-13 sept - agra
 
The Clientshare Academy Briefing - Gold Membership - by Practice Paradox
The Clientshare Academy Briefing - Gold Membership - by Practice ParadoxThe Clientshare Academy Briefing - Gold Membership - by Practice Paradox
The Clientshare Academy Briefing - Gold Membership - by Practice Paradox
 
Britney spears
Britney spearsBritney spears
Britney spears
 
F.Blin IFLA Trend Report English_dk
F.Blin IFLA Trend Report English_dkF.Blin IFLA Trend Report English_dk
F.Blin IFLA Trend Report English_dk
 
Our changing state: the realities of austerity and devolution
Our changing state: the realities of austerity and devolutionOur changing state: the realities of austerity and devolution
Our changing state: the realities of austerity and devolution
 
Ivc filter lawsuits slideshare
Ivc filter lawsuits slideshareIvc filter lawsuits slideshare
Ivc filter lawsuits slideshare
 
Alex CV Short Selection_email
Alex CV Short Selection_emailAlex CV Short Selection_email
Alex CV Short Selection_email
 
Créer et afficher une tag list sur scoop.it
Créer et afficher une tag list sur scoop.itCréer et afficher une tag list sur scoop.it
Créer et afficher une tag list sur scoop.it
 
Urn nbn fi_jyu-201001221061
Urn nbn fi_jyu-201001221061Urn nbn fi_jyu-201001221061
Urn nbn fi_jyu-201001221061
 
Geo aumentaty
Geo aumentatyGeo aumentaty
Geo aumentaty
 
Nailing a Job Interview
Nailing a Job InterviewNailing a Job Interview
Nailing a Job Interview
 

Similar to Navigating Uncertainty when Launching New Ideas

PRINCIPLES OF SALES GREATNESS
PRINCIPLES  OF  SALES GREATNESSPRINCIPLES  OF  SALES GREATNESS
Top 10 Errors To Avoid In Marketing Research
Top 10 Errors To Avoid In Marketing ResearchTop 10 Errors To Avoid In Marketing Research
Top 10 Errors To Avoid In Marketing Research
MarketResearch.com
 
18 Reasons Why You Should Quantify Your Enterprise Risks
18 Reasons Why You Should Quantify Your Enterprise Risks18 Reasons Why You Should Quantify Your Enterprise Risks
18 Reasons Why You Should Quantify Your Enterprise RisksAndrew Koh
 
SLEEPING LION BUSINESS TOOLKIT 2019
SLEEPING LION BUSINESS TOOLKIT 2019SLEEPING LION BUSINESS TOOLKIT 2019
SLEEPING LION BUSINESS TOOLKIT 2019
Sarah Duncan
 
12 Principles of Sales Greatness
12 Principles of Sales Greatness12 Principles of Sales Greatness
12 Principles of Sales Greatness
Ungkool Wongkolthoot
 
Casro presentation v2
Casro presentation v2Casro presentation v2
Casro presentation v2
Steve Henke
 
How to avoid Startup Failure?
How to avoid Startup Failure?How to avoid Startup Failure?
How to avoid Startup Failure?
Triin Linamagi
 
Ten Top Tips seminar
Ten Top Tips seminarTen Top Tips seminar
Ten Top Tips seminar
squaremealvande
 
Startup Secrets - Roadmap to Success
Startup Secrets - Roadmap to SuccessStartup Secrets - Roadmap to Success
Startup Secrets - Roadmap to Success
Michael Skok
 
The Ultimate Sales Machine - Chet Holmes
The Ultimate Sales Machine - Chet HolmesThe Ultimate Sales Machine - Chet Holmes
The Ultimate Sales Machine - Chet Holmes
Canny Digital
 
Fit 7 mistakes_gold_traders_make
Fit 7 mistakes_gold_traders_makeFit 7 mistakes_gold_traders_make
Fit 7 mistakes_gold_traders_make
Hochleitner Marine
 
Why the hell do we need strategy?
Why the hell do we need strategy? Why the hell do we need strategy?
Why the hell do we need strategy?
Eline Goethals
 
Original investors idea ; startup level survival education funding strategy, ...
Original investors idea ; startup level survival education funding strategy, ...Original investors idea ; startup level survival education funding strategy, ...
Original investors idea ; startup level survival education funding strategy, ...
www.securitysystems.best
 
Strategy vs. Tactics
Strategy vs. TacticsStrategy vs. Tactics
Strategy vs. Tactics
Ella Paterno
 
New Media Women Entrepreneurs Summit
New Media Women Entrepreneurs SummitNew Media Women Entrepreneurs Summit
New Media Women Entrepreneurs Summit
Ju-Don Roberts
 
Money mindset secrets 4 -- Money mirrors
Money mindset secrets 4 -- Money mirrorsMoney mindset secrets 4 -- Money mirrors
Money mindset secrets 4 -- Money mirrors
Susan Crutcher
 
Why International marketers fail 2013
Why International marketers fail 2013Why International marketers fail 2013
Why International marketers fail 2013
doubletriple-fbm
 
The father of all demos: how to make a product demo that stands out
The father of all demos: how to make a product demo that stands out The father of all demos: how to make a product demo that stands out
The father of all demos: how to make a product demo that stands out
Moriya Kassis
 
Success after success|adv dr rajkumar adukia
Success after success|adv dr rajkumar adukiaSuccess after success|adv dr rajkumar adukia
Success after success|adv dr rajkumar adukia
CA. (Dr.) Rajkumar Adukia
 
Sales Mastery Training
Sales Mastery TrainingSales Mastery Training

Similar to Navigating Uncertainty when Launching New Ideas (20)

PRINCIPLES OF SALES GREATNESS
PRINCIPLES  OF  SALES GREATNESSPRINCIPLES  OF  SALES GREATNESS
PRINCIPLES OF SALES GREATNESS
 
Top 10 Errors To Avoid In Marketing Research
Top 10 Errors To Avoid In Marketing ResearchTop 10 Errors To Avoid In Marketing Research
Top 10 Errors To Avoid In Marketing Research
 
18 Reasons Why You Should Quantify Your Enterprise Risks
18 Reasons Why You Should Quantify Your Enterprise Risks18 Reasons Why You Should Quantify Your Enterprise Risks
18 Reasons Why You Should Quantify Your Enterprise Risks
 
SLEEPING LION BUSINESS TOOLKIT 2019
SLEEPING LION BUSINESS TOOLKIT 2019SLEEPING LION BUSINESS TOOLKIT 2019
SLEEPING LION BUSINESS TOOLKIT 2019
 
12 Principles of Sales Greatness
12 Principles of Sales Greatness12 Principles of Sales Greatness
12 Principles of Sales Greatness
 
Casro presentation v2
Casro presentation v2Casro presentation v2
Casro presentation v2
 
How to avoid Startup Failure?
How to avoid Startup Failure?How to avoid Startup Failure?
How to avoid Startup Failure?
 
Ten Top Tips seminar
Ten Top Tips seminarTen Top Tips seminar
Ten Top Tips seminar
 
Startup Secrets - Roadmap to Success
Startup Secrets - Roadmap to SuccessStartup Secrets - Roadmap to Success
Startup Secrets - Roadmap to Success
 
The Ultimate Sales Machine - Chet Holmes
The Ultimate Sales Machine - Chet HolmesThe Ultimate Sales Machine - Chet Holmes
The Ultimate Sales Machine - Chet Holmes
 
Fit 7 mistakes_gold_traders_make
Fit 7 mistakes_gold_traders_makeFit 7 mistakes_gold_traders_make
Fit 7 mistakes_gold_traders_make
 
Why the hell do we need strategy?
Why the hell do we need strategy? Why the hell do we need strategy?
Why the hell do we need strategy?
 
Original investors idea ; startup level survival education funding strategy, ...
Original investors idea ; startup level survival education funding strategy, ...Original investors idea ; startup level survival education funding strategy, ...
Original investors idea ; startup level survival education funding strategy, ...
 
Strategy vs. Tactics
Strategy vs. TacticsStrategy vs. Tactics
Strategy vs. Tactics
 
New Media Women Entrepreneurs Summit
New Media Women Entrepreneurs SummitNew Media Women Entrepreneurs Summit
New Media Women Entrepreneurs Summit
 
Money mindset secrets 4 -- Money mirrors
Money mindset secrets 4 -- Money mirrorsMoney mindset secrets 4 -- Money mirrors
Money mindset secrets 4 -- Money mirrors
 
Why International marketers fail 2013
Why International marketers fail 2013Why International marketers fail 2013
Why International marketers fail 2013
 
The father of all demos: how to make a product demo that stands out
The father of all demos: how to make a product demo that stands out The father of all demos: how to make a product demo that stands out
The father of all demos: how to make a product demo that stands out
 
Success after success|adv dr rajkumar adukia
Success after success|adv dr rajkumar adukiaSuccess after success|adv dr rajkumar adukia
Success after success|adv dr rajkumar adukia
 
Sales Mastery Training
Sales Mastery TrainingSales Mastery Training
Sales Mastery Training
 

Recently uploaded

The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
awaisafdar
 
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products NewsletterApril 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
NathanBaughman3
 
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
Kumar Satyam
 
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesPremium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
SynapseIndia
 
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptxSet off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
HARSHITHV26
 
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
zoyaansari11365
 
Lookback Analysis
Lookback AnalysisLookback Analysis
Lookback Analysis
Safe PaaS
 
Role of Remote Sensing and Monitoring in Mining
Role of Remote Sensing and Monitoring in MiningRole of Remote Sensing and Monitoring in Mining
Role of Remote Sensing and Monitoring in Mining
Naaraayani Minerals Pvt.Ltd
 
Digital Transformation in PLM - WHAT and HOW - for distribution.pdf
Digital Transformation in PLM - WHAT and HOW - for distribution.pdfDigital Transformation in PLM - WHAT and HOW - for distribution.pdf
Digital Transformation in PLM - WHAT and HOW - for distribution.pdf
Jos Voskuil
 
Project File Report BBA 6th semester.pdf
Project File Report BBA 6th semester.pdfProject File Report BBA 6th semester.pdf
Project File Report BBA 6th semester.pdf
RajPriye
 
BeMetals Presentation_May_22_2024 .pdf
BeMetals Presentation_May_22_2024   .pdfBeMetals Presentation_May_22_2024   .pdf
BeMetals Presentation_May_22_2024 .pdf
DerekIwanaka1
 
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
tjcomstrang
 
anas about venice for grade 6f about venice
anas about venice for grade 6f about veniceanas about venice for grade 6f about venice
anas about venice for grade 6f about venice
anasabutalha2013
 
Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...
Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...
Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...
PaulBryant58
 
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxationchapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
AUDIJEAngelo
 
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfUnveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Sam H
 
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBdCree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
creerey
 
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop.com LTD
 
Search Disrupted Google’s Leaked Documents Rock the SEO World.pdf
Search Disrupted Google’s Leaked Documents Rock the SEO World.pdfSearch Disrupted Google’s Leaked Documents Rock the SEO World.pdf
Search Disrupted Google’s Leaked Documents Rock the SEO World.pdf
Arihant Webtech Pvt. Ltd
 
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfEnterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
KaiNexus
 

Recently uploaded (20)

The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
 
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products NewsletterApril 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
 
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
 
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesPremium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
 
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptxSet off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
 
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
 
Lookback Analysis
Lookback AnalysisLookback Analysis
Lookback Analysis
 
Role of Remote Sensing and Monitoring in Mining
Role of Remote Sensing and Monitoring in MiningRole of Remote Sensing and Monitoring in Mining
Role of Remote Sensing and Monitoring in Mining
 
Digital Transformation in PLM - WHAT and HOW - for distribution.pdf
Digital Transformation in PLM - WHAT and HOW - for distribution.pdfDigital Transformation in PLM - WHAT and HOW - for distribution.pdf
Digital Transformation in PLM - WHAT and HOW - for distribution.pdf
 
Project File Report BBA 6th semester.pdf
Project File Report BBA 6th semester.pdfProject File Report BBA 6th semester.pdf
Project File Report BBA 6th semester.pdf
 
BeMetals Presentation_May_22_2024 .pdf
BeMetals Presentation_May_22_2024   .pdfBeMetals Presentation_May_22_2024   .pdf
BeMetals Presentation_May_22_2024 .pdf
 
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
 
anas about venice for grade 6f about venice
anas about venice for grade 6f about veniceanas about venice for grade 6f about venice
anas about venice for grade 6f about venice
 
Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...
Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...
Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...
 
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxationchapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
 
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfUnveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
 
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBdCree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
 
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
 
Search Disrupted Google’s Leaked Documents Rock the SEO World.pdf
Search Disrupted Google’s Leaked Documents Rock the SEO World.pdfSearch Disrupted Google’s Leaked Documents Rock the SEO World.pdf
Search Disrupted Google’s Leaked Documents Rock the SEO World.pdf
 
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfEnterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
 

Navigating Uncertainty when Launching New Ideas

Editor's Notes

  1. * Story of 2 products at NPR * 1 Complex platform for launching custom news sites - several years to build * 2 Standalone, stripped down mobile site - a few months * Success: 200 newsrooms; thousands edits, millions users * Dismal Failure: no newsrooms; killed product line * Too difficult to port content; mobile apps * 1st was well understood, mobile (at the time) was new= uncertainty - around users, needs, technology, messaging. All this was new to us. -> Two big takeaways 1. Products go astray when they have too many uncertainties – too many unknowns 2. You can’t just treat all product development the same way. If you’re working on something w/ lots of unknowns, you need to take a different approach
  2. Since working on these two products, I’ve got to work with dozens of new product teams, Some at NPR Dozens of startups at techstars, where I’ve been a mentor for going on 5 classes of startups At at Olin college, where I teach engineers how to launch new products and I’ve learned some secrets to manage all these unknowns, these uncertainties
  3. The secret lies in turning uncertainty into certainty Knowing your unknowns Each one will unlock a little uncertainty And I’ll show you how
  4. * Silly to ask “why are we launching this?” – should be obvious, right * Ask team; ask those at top = different answers - generate revenue? make customers happy? Solve specific user problem? Explore biz opportunity? * Dangerous to maintain ambiguity W/ so much uncertainty, one place need to lock down
  5. * Ideal purpose = well-articulated problem statement * Clear problem statements hard to get right * For example, we may inadvertently limit solution possibilities; like w/ 3rd example here - “fix our advertising” = band aid w/ new ad format rather than exploring new revenue streams * Ideal when team hits snag - stop, assess right approach; address underlying problem? * Startups call this pivot * Example EdTrips
  6. * Saw inefficiencies w/ school field trips * Teachers didn’t have a burning need here. Too infrequent. No direct incentive for them to fix it. * Venues felt differently - pivot solution for venues * If problem statement was around helping teachers, give up deep knowledge, tech infrastructure and partners in the field trip space
  7. 1st = some risks are going to be obvious and easy to avoid. You should avoid them. - IOW: wear your seatbelt - Corporate example: brand
  8. Turns out to be kind of hard to spot your assumptions, so you need to go hunting for them There’s three places they hide - D: Assuming that customers have a meaningful enough problem & are you’re addressing it effectively - F: Assuming the solution is technically possible based on your capabilities and resources - V: Assuming that bringing to market helps your business thrive
  9. When hunting for the biggest risks, you should look to desirability
  10. Understand assumptions get you in trouble and prioritize them You want to address these uncertainties
  11. * You’ve found the risks you can avoid. You’ve identified the rest. You’ve prioritized them, now you test them * Fortunately, this is what the lean startup movement is all about * I recommend you read this book, so I won’t be going into it here WITH ONE EXCEPTION * Assumptions testing is hard - Hard: craft a good experiment; be conclusive; identify true causation * Sometimes is best to just get in front of customers with something and see what you learn
  12. Either by getting rid of them, mitigating them, or revealing ones you weren’t aware of
  13. At their core of these uncertain projects are a search for something that works Search for target market, biz problem, set features, biz model, form factor, distribution channel in short, things to make your idea succeed And this takes a particular mindset But this isn’t always the default way that orgs tend to think
  14. So let’s look at two different mindsets on a project Builders concern themselves with… * Explorers have goals, needs, approach of someone on the hunt for evidence and insight * If you see yourself a builder of things, this will feel weird and unfamiliar * Not jettisoning needs of builders, just knowing when to introduce them and how they should be prioritized
  15. Purpose helps figure out WHAT to accomplish Your mindset helps you figure out HOW to do it i.e. should we take the actions of an explorer or of a builder?
  16. Boston -> London Setting a compass heading and hoping in 1-2 weeks you’ll land in london harbor is a bad strategy Instead, sailors use dead reckoning
  17. Get a fix (absolute position) & monitor speed and direction over time to develop a relative position But the secret is to regularly take new absolution positions You then can course correct for wind, current and small inaccuracies that build up over time This is exactly what you need to do in highly uncertain project environments Pause regularly and take a fix: where are we? What have we learned? Then course-correct as necessary towards achieving the team’s ultimate purpose – Manifests as changes in specific product development activities Equivalent BTW of setting a single compass heading up front is creating the master project plan With schedules, dependencies, action items, specifications and so on Often, these are built to create a sense of safety, but ultimately they can postpone setting sail or worse, Create anchor that the team won’t question, even when new information emerges to challenge Not PLAN or NOT PLAN, there benefits figuring out up front – you wouldn’t set sail without crew, food and lifeboats
  18. After an initial plan, value diminishes slowly over time (intuitively) : starts w/ core features becomes bells, whistles, polishing = not know where line is The way to solve this is by regularly re-planning. Agile Scrum methodology provides one way to do this * Scrum forces pausing regularly, assess progress and re-plan= ensure highest value items get worked on * By incorporating what learning = get significantly more value over time (reveal) * Interestingly: Diminishing value problem doesn’t go away, but it’s continuously pinched off
  19. One of most powerful shared values on a team is a willingness to learn or to know yourself - not just yourself as an individual, but for the team to understand how they work together
  20. * Big teams = develop political factions; difficult make decisions; require exponentially larger number of interactions to manage communications * Small teams by contrast quickly develop shared values * Amazon = two-pizza teams
  21. Best way to learn is to use a learning framework REFLECT: WWW / EBI IDENTIFY IMPROVEMENT: Team chooses one improvement to make ENACT CHANGE: As part of enacting change, the team articulates not just what to do but the desired results * Reflect back after pre-determined amount of time - did team perform improvement? - did it have desired results? * Seems obvious. Do we need a framework? Shouldn’t we improve naturally? = NO Secret = be deliberate & do steps. (reason for “pick only one”) Oddly difficult to be deliberate here => Like watching yourself on video. We wouldn’t choose to do it.
  22. * When team consistently identifies, tackles & acknowledges ability to solve problems = shifts perspective * Creates collective self-efficacy = a belief in themselves and ability to solve problems. - self-efficacy starts small but can be applied big
  23. * Participated in my fair share of projects that some point felt discouraging. * I suspect we all know what this feels like * I assumed = team dysfunction or bad exec decisions * Teaching students helped me form different opinion * Almost every team at some point - if risky enough - gets discouraged
  24. * I’m not only one who sees * Paul graham YCombinator describes it this way - timeline w/ emotional state on vertical axis Reason this is funny is because it’s true When things don’t go well it sucks. It’s discouraging to be wrong.
  25. * The weird part is that we don’t really talk about it The first approach I propose is that we simply acknowledge the fact that it’s part of most risky projects Discouragement manifests differently for different people Most common are denial, blame & apathy - What to do? 1. Acknowledge something gone wrong and feels crappy 2. Try and get at underlying problem by asking why? - likely problem is not the normal reactions of blame and dysfunction, but some underlying problem - perhaps evidence has started to appear that team was wrong in some of their assumptions & product success is at risk 3. If so, now would be a good time to revisit the team purpose - are you on the right track? Is there something important going on here?
  26. * Another method for addressing failure = cultivating resilience, Significantly Harder * One way is to celebrate failure * Org cultures where this exists = engineers w/o borders = annual failure report = rare * Start small team or individual level first * Celebrating failure isn’t just cheering => recognizing important lessons w/ what happened - lead to future success - prevented team from going forward false assumptions for months (maybe lesson learned in weeks) = that’s worth celebrating * Trick here is to invert “made mistake learned something” into “we learned something critical to our success and all it cost us was two weeks”
  27. The simple answer to how to navigate uncertainty is when you can, remove it. And when you cant, respond to it effectively. --- Wrap up with a story about my most recent class teaching engineering students to launch new products. This will take us through all six insights. good bets - inspired by the ALS ice bucket challenge friends challenge each other for money - loser pays to charity instead of the friend Purpose - helping charities? process more efficient? more fun? Risk – great ways to play test w/ paper and pencil Mindset – this balance between builder and explorer – they tried to code an app Plan – reflect on what they had learned from playtesting to have the challenger pay rather than the person who was challenged The team did regular reflections and saw they weren’t going to get their app built So they had the guts to throw away some of their work and focus on a stripped down app based on what they had learned