This document shows implied natural gas price settlement probabilities for 2017 through 2020. It provides percentages for different price ranges (between $3-$8 per million British thermal units) and percentiles (5th, 25th, 75th, 95th) on specific dates from 2017 to 2020. The probabilities decrease as the price increases and become steadier for later years.

1. scenarioknow@gmail.com
2.47
1.92
1.70 1.61
2.76
2.45
2.24 2.16
3.00 2.99
2.84 2.78
3.21
3.43
3.30 3.27
3.60
4.37 4.37 4.40
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2017 2018 2019 2020
IMPLIED HH NATURAL GAS PRICE SETTLEMENT PROBABILITIES, 08-18-17
5th Percentile 25th Percentile Futures 75th Percentile 95th Percentile

2. IMPLIED HH NATURAL GAS PRICE SETTLEMENT PROBABILITIES, 08-18-17
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
0% 0% 0% 7% 53% 56% 99% 90% 100% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
0% 0% 14% 18% 63% 65% 91% 91% 98% 98% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
0% 7% 53% 56% 99% 90% 100% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
14% 18% 63% 65% 91% 91% 98% 98% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
53% 49% 99% 83% 100% 92% 100% 93% 100% 93% 100% 93%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
49% 48% 77% 73% 84% 80% 86% 82% 86% 82% 86% 82%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
46% 34% 47% 43% 47% 44% 47% 44% 47% 44%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
28% 25% 35% 33% 36% 34% 37% 34% 37% 34%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
0% 8% 0% 10% 0% 10% 0% 10%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
7% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
2017 2018 2017 2018
0% 0% 0% 0%
2019 2020 2019 2020
0% 0% 0% 0%
2017 2018
0% 0%
2019 2020
0% 0%
$3 $4 $5 $6
B
E
T
W
E
E
N
AND
$4
$5
$6
$7
$7 $8
$0
$1
$2
$3
$1 $2
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