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NAACP BATTLEGROUND
         POLL

____________________________
              _
      Ben Jealous, President & CEO, NAACP
      Silas Lee, PhD Silas Lee and Associates
      Matt A. Barreto, PhD Principal Latino
      Decisions
                 November 8, 2012
2012 African American Election Eve
    Poll
Four States

1,600 African
American Voters

400 per state

November 1-5

Live callers,
landline & cells
SUPPORT FOR OBAMA
AND BLACK INFLUENCE
STATES



  93% were “enthusiastic” about the President, 79% “very
  enthusiastic”
African American Vote for President
Obama in Four States
 100
       98       99   97   97   98
  80
  60
  40
  20
   0
African American Impact in 2012
   Growth in Black vote since 2004 was crucial
African American Impact in 2012
   Growth in Black vote since 2004 was crucial
African American Impact in 2012
Additional states
where Black vote
exceeds the
Obama margin

Even more states
where Blacks +
Latinos create a
minority influence
bloc
ISSUES IN THE 2012
ELECTION
Most Important Issues among African
Americans

What are the        60%
                                       63%                       63%
                                                     59%
most important                 55%
issues facing the                                                         Jobs/Econo
                                                                          my
African                                                                   Education
American
                                                                          Health Care
community that
politicians
should address?
                      23%        22% 24%   22% 23%
                                                       24%         24%
                                                                         23%
                         22%                               19%

•   Jobs!
Is there a Federal Role in Protecting
   Minority Interests?
                                 Definitely Yes   Yes   No    Definitely No
Despite 81% of
African          Voting Rights             65%                     28%    4%1%
American
voters
embracing            Public
                                            67%                    29%        2%1%
norms of self-      Education
reliance, they
strongly see a     Housing
                                         57%                  35%         4% 1%
role for the     Opportunities
Federal
Government.        Affirmative
                                        52%                  36%         5% 1%
                     Action
RELATIONSHIP TO THE
POLITICAL PARTIES
African American Trust in Parties on Civil
Rights

 Are the parties
 working hard to
 address civil        Republica
 rights and                       7%       32%                     55%
                         ns
 equality?
 1)   Working Hard
                                       Working Hard    Just talk   Don't care at all
 2)   Just saying
      what
      minorities
      want to hear
                      Democrat
                                                 71%                       18%    2%
 3)   Don’t care at      s
      all…
Comparing the Parties on
   Issues…
                                                                             Republica
                                                                             ns
African             Working Hard on Poverty    7%                            Democrat
                                                                65%          s
Americans
see little            Working Hard on Publc         15%
effort from                      Education                             78%
Republicans
                                                11%
on issues of    Working Hard on Health Care
                                                                            84%
importance.
                        Working Hard on Job         14%
                               Opportunities                          74%

               Working Hard to Reduce Mass     6%
                               Incarceration              30%
SUPPORTING CIVIL
RIGHTS FOR ALL
AMERICANS
Strong African American Support for
contemporary civil rights issues
        Strongly support   Support       DK     Oppose      Strongly Oppose

                     DREAM Act                   71%               21%       2%3%


    Comprehensive Immigration
                                               53%           27%        7%8%
    Reform w/ Path to Citizenship

     Same Sex Marriage Equality          27%     23%         9%        31%


     Same Sex Marriage Equality
                                         34%          23%         7%   24%
      (w/ Religious Exemption)

                                    0%    20%        40%    60%    80% 100%
Strong African American Support for
contemporary civil rights issues
Support Same Sex Marriage with Religious Exemption –
by Age

                Net support     Net oppose      Edge
All              57%             31%            +26
18-30            67%             26%            +41
31-44            62%             25%            +37
45-65            55%             35%            +20
66 plus          48%             39%            +09

Support will only increase as younger voters come into the
LOOKING TO THE
FUTURE
Democrats Without Obama?
                                               Very enthusiastic
Projected                                      Somewhat enthusiastic
enthusiasm for
Democrats in
2016 AFTER          2012 - With Obama                79%               14%     5%
Obama is
significantly
lower, suggesti
ng a challenge
                  2016 - Without Obama         47%           32%         18%
for Democrats
and opportunity
for
                                         0%   20%    40%    60%    80%       100%
Republicans.
Would you be more likely to vote GOP
if:
                     GOP took a stand for civil rights/equality    GOP nominated Colin Powell
VOTES ON
THE TABLE:                                        19%
With a better
                                            15%                                     15%
record or the     14%    14%                               14%
                                                                  13%   13%               13%
right
                                                                              11%
nominee, GOP
could attract
significantly
more African
American
votes.
                Four State Total              Florida      Georgia       Ohio       Virgina
NAACP BATTLEGROUND
         POLL

____________________________
              _
      Ben Jealous, President & CEO, NAACP
      Silas Lee, PhD Silas Lee and Associates
      Matt A. Barreto, PhD Principal Latino
      Decisions
                 November 8, 2012

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NAACP 2012 Battleground Poll

  • 1. NAACP BATTLEGROUND POLL ____________________________ _ Ben Jealous, President & CEO, NAACP Silas Lee, PhD Silas Lee and Associates Matt A. Barreto, PhD Principal Latino Decisions November 8, 2012
  • 2. 2012 African American Election Eve Poll Four States 1,600 African American Voters 400 per state November 1-5 Live callers, landline & cells
  • 3. SUPPORT FOR OBAMA AND BLACK INFLUENCE STATES 93% were “enthusiastic” about the President, 79% “very enthusiastic”
  • 4. African American Vote for President Obama in Four States 100 98 99 97 97 98 80 60 40 20 0
  • 5. African American Impact in 2012  Growth in Black vote since 2004 was crucial
  • 6. African American Impact in 2012  Growth in Black vote since 2004 was crucial
  • 7. African American Impact in 2012 Additional states where Black vote exceeds the Obama margin Even more states where Blacks + Latinos create a minority influence bloc
  • 8. ISSUES IN THE 2012 ELECTION
  • 9. Most Important Issues among African Americans What are the 60% 63% 63% 59% most important 55% issues facing the Jobs/Econo my African Education American Health Care community that politicians should address? 23% 22% 24% 22% 23% 24% 24% 23% 22% 19% • Jobs!
  • 10. Is there a Federal Role in Protecting Minority Interests? Definitely Yes Yes No Definitely No Despite 81% of African Voting Rights 65% 28% 4%1% American voters embracing Public 67% 29% 2%1% norms of self- Education reliance, they strongly see a Housing 57% 35% 4% 1% role for the Opportunities Federal Government. Affirmative 52% 36% 5% 1% Action
  • 12. African American Trust in Parties on Civil Rights Are the parties working hard to address civil Republica rights and 7% 32% 55% ns equality? 1) Working Hard Working Hard Just talk Don't care at all 2) Just saying what minorities want to hear Democrat 71% 18% 2% 3) Don’t care at s all…
  • 13. Comparing the Parties on Issues… Republica ns African Working Hard on Poverty 7% Democrat 65% s Americans see little Working Hard on Publc 15% effort from Education 78% Republicans 11% on issues of Working Hard on Health Care 84% importance. Working Hard on Job 14% Opportunities 74% Working Hard to Reduce Mass 6% Incarceration 30%
  • 15. Strong African American Support for contemporary civil rights issues Strongly support Support DK Oppose Strongly Oppose DREAM Act 71% 21% 2%3% Comprehensive Immigration 53% 27% 7%8% Reform w/ Path to Citizenship Same Sex Marriage Equality 27% 23% 9% 31% Same Sex Marriage Equality 34% 23% 7% 24% (w/ Religious Exemption) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
  • 16. Strong African American Support for contemporary civil rights issues Support Same Sex Marriage with Religious Exemption – by Age Net support Net oppose Edge All 57% 31% +26 18-30 67% 26% +41 31-44 62% 25% +37 45-65 55% 35% +20 66 plus 48% 39% +09 Support will only increase as younger voters come into the
  • 18. Democrats Without Obama? Very enthusiastic Projected Somewhat enthusiastic enthusiasm for Democrats in 2016 AFTER 2012 - With Obama 79% 14% 5% Obama is significantly lower, suggesti ng a challenge 2016 - Without Obama 47% 32% 18% for Democrats and opportunity for 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Republicans.
  • 19. Would you be more likely to vote GOP if: GOP took a stand for civil rights/equality GOP nominated Colin Powell VOTES ON THE TABLE: 19% With a better 15% 15% record or the 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% right 11% nominee, GOP could attract significantly more African American votes. Four State Total Florida Georgia Ohio Virgina
  • 20. NAACP BATTLEGROUND POLL ____________________________ _ Ben Jealous, President & CEO, NAACP Silas Lee, PhD Silas Lee and Associates Matt A. Barreto, PhD Principal Latino Decisions November 8, 2012