This document summarizes an assessment of Myanmar's 2015 general election presented by Thet Aung Min Latt. It outlines the key players in the election including the military, ruling USDP party, opposition NLD party, and ethnic political parties. It also discusses the potential outcomes of the election, including a likely coalition government formed in 2016 between multiple parties. Issues of instability from ethnic conflicts, proposed constitutional changes, and the roles of permanent secretaries and chief ministers are also covered.

1. MYANMAR 2015 AND BEYOND
Thet Aung Min Latt
Managing Director
Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd
www.diamondconsultantgroup.co
m
Offshore E&P Summit Myanmar 2015

2. AGENDA
 An assessment of the Myanmar General elections, key players
 Analysis on the general elections impact on Myanmar business
community
 When major initiatives will happen and why?
 Radical movement
 Ethnic Politics
 Different scenario in 2015 Myanmar general election

3. THE KEY PLAYERS
 The Military
 USDP
 NLD
 Ethnic political parties

4. THE MILITARY
 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
 General Wai Lwin
 General Mya Tun Oo

5. USDP
 U Thein Sein – current president
 U Thura Shwe Mann – current speaker of the house
 U Htay Oo – Vice chairman of USDP

6. NLD
 Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

7. ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES
 Rakhine National Party
U Aung Thar Aung
 Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (white tiger)
Sai Ai Pao
 SNLD
 Khun Htun Oo

8. THE ELECTION
 USDP
 NLD
 The Military (25% and former General)
 Ethnic political parties

9. USDP
 West policy
 Party Congress (President and MPs)
 Rebuilding image
 Controversial Ministers, MPs
 Collective vision
 Minor business interest conflict

10. NLD
 NLD congress
 Lack of MPs for election BIG challenge
 The management committee
 Would like to choose Youth and Women

11. ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES
 Likely to win major vote in ethnic region
 Shan, Rahkine and Mon
 UNA don’t have agreement with NLD

12. THE MILITARY
 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
 Recent visit
Last year – Korea, Japan
This year – Pakistan, Serbia, UAE
 Good relationship with Thai army
 Building diplomatic image
 Rebuild Myanmar army image during Kokant conflict

13. PERMANENT SECRETARY
www.moi.gov.mm

14. PERMANENT SECRETARY
 permanent secretaries will run the government
 During prepare for election and after the election

15. THE GOVERNMENT AFTER
ELECTION
 President
 Vice President
 Speaker of the house
 Commander in Chief
* [ One vice president as National Energy Planning committee ]

16. MAJOR INITIATIVES
 2015
 2016 – Very likely to become coalition government
USDP, NLD, ethnic parties
 2017 – Likely to prove new bills, effective government

17. INSTABILITY - INTERNAL
 Rise of Labor Union – example Zawtika project

18. INSTABILITY – EXTERNAL
 Arakan army current conflict with army
 Anti Muslim movement
 New tension in Kayah with KNPP

19. Photo from bnionline.net

20. IN RAKHINE
 Rakhine party and armed group interest
 2008 Constitution Appendix I and II changes
 Their resources for their region
 Their region with their leader as Chief Minister

21. WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS
DOING
 Stability
 Electricity for Rakhine state
 Not accepting yet AA, TNLA, MNDAA in NCA

22. THE ARMED CONFLICT
 KNU 1988 to 2012
 KIA Ceasefire 1994 to 2011
 MNDAA 1989 to 2009, 2015
 AA 2009
East and West conflict zones

23. ETHNIC ARMY
 Ethnic arm group conference request
 AA, TNLA, MNDAA in NCA

24. 2008 CONSTITUTION CHANGES
 10 June 2015 proposed by USDP MP

25. PROPOSING 2008 CHANGES 59
 (d) shall be well acquainted with the affairs of the Union such as
political, administrative, economic and military;
 (d) shall be well acquainted with the affairs of the Union such as
political, administrative, economic and defense;

26. PROPOSING 2008 CHANGES 59
 (f) shall he himself, one of the parents, the spouse, one of the
legitimate children or their spouses not owe allegiance to a
foreign power, not be subject of a foreign power or citizen of a
foreign country. They shall not be persons entitled to enjoy the
rights and privileges of a subject of a foreign government or
citizen of a foreign country;
Removed: one of the legitimate children or their spouses

27. PROPOSING 2008 CHANGES 436
75% to 70%

28. PROPOSING 2008 CHANGES 62 63
64
 The President or the Vice-Presidents shall not be representative
of any Hluttaw.
 If the President or the Vice-Presidents are Hluttaw
representatives, they shall be deemed to have resigned from their
seats in that Hluttaw, and if the President or the Vice- Presidents
are the Civil Services personnel, they shall be deemed to have
resigned or retired from their offices from the day of their election.
 64. If the President or the Vice-Presidents are members of a
political party, they shall not take part in its party activities during
their term of office from the day of their election.

29. PROPOSING 2008 CHANGES 261
 Chief Minister of the Region or State will be elected by vote of
their MPs of representative parliament.

30. PROPOSING 2008 CHANGES
1,2,3,5
 SCHEDULE ONE
Union Legislative List
 SCHEDULE TWO
Region or State Legislative List
 SCHEDULE THREE List of Legislation of the Leading Body of Self-
Administered Division or Self-Administered Area
 SCHEDULE FIVE Taxes Collected by Region or States

31. RECOMMENDATION
 Effective CSR
 Environmental
 Employee
 Emergency plan review
 External Communication (PR)

32. THANKS
 Q&A
Thet Aung Min Latt
Managing Director
Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd
www.diamondconsultantgroup.com