CPI inflation in Hungary dropped to 2.2% in October, undershooting expectations and likely to remain below the central bank's 3% target through 2019. Underlying inflation indicators are also declining due to base effects from falling fuel prices and modest wage growth. The central bank is not expected to tighten monetary policy in the near future given low imported inflation and declining price pressures.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése 3% fölé vitte júniusban az inflációt, azonban a jegybanki cél fölötti pénzromlási ütem újabb sokk hiányában nem lesz tartós. Noha az alapfolyamatokból következő árnyomás folyamatosan erősödik majd, a külső tételek (üzemanyag, élelmiszer, hatósági árak, jövedéki adós termékek) egész 2019. végéig 3% alatt tarthatják a fogyasztói árindexet.
A kedvező bevételi folyamatoknak és egyes kiadási tételek visszafogott alakulásának köszönhetően jelentős mozgástér áll rendelkezésre a magyar költségvetésben. A 2018-as költségvetési törvényjavaslat a 2,4%-os hiánycélhoz képest érzékelhető mozgásteret főként az állami beruházások és a dologi kiadások növelésével tölti ki.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése miatt nagyot ugrott májusban az infláció, de a kereslet-vezérelt tételekben is érzékelhető a gyorsulás. Idén nyáron átmenetileg 3% feletti inflációra számítanak az OTP Bank elemzői. Tartósan 2019-ben érheti el a jegybank célját a pénzromlás üteme, sőt, ha a kockázatok realizálódnak, akár jelentősebb gyorsulás is jöhet jövőre.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése 3% fölé vitte júniusban az inflációt, azonban a jegybanki cél fölötti pénzromlási ütem újabb sokk hiányában nem lesz tartós. Noha az alapfolyamatokból következő árnyomás folyamatosan erősödik majd, a külső tételek (üzemanyag, élelmiszer, hatósági árak, jövedéki adós termékek) egész 2019. végéig 3% alatt tarthatják a fogyasztói árindexet.
A kedvező bevételi folyamatoknak és egyes kiadási tételek visszafogott alakulásának köszönhetően jelentős mozgástér áll rendelkezésre a magyar költségvetésben. A 2018-as költségvetési törvényjavaslat a 2,4%-os hiánycélhoz képest érzékelhető mozgásteret főként az állami beruházások és a dologi kiadások növelésével tölti ki.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése miatt nagyot ugrott májusban az infláció, de a kereslet-vezérelt tételekben is érzékelhető a gyorsulás. Idén nyáron átmenetileg 3% feletti inflációra számítanak az OTP Bank elemzői. Tartósan 2019-ben érheti el a jegybank célját a pénzromlás üteme, sőt, ha a kockázatok realizálódnak, akár jelentősebb gyorsulás is jöhet jövőre.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Bank of Canada Decision and Real GDP – Preview
We expect a very close call for the monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) leaving the overnight rate target unchanged at 1.25%.
Since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), several risks to the inflation outlook have begun to materialise. While headline inflation is comfortably within the inflation target band, indications are that we have passed the low point of the current cycle. Developments in the international environment have placed upward pressure on the inflation trajectory, while the domestic growth outlook remains challenging.
Factsheet for Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund- WishfinAnvi Sharma
The scheme aims to maximize long term capital appreciation by investing primarily in equity & equity related securities of companies engaged in banking & financial services. The scheme would invest in banks as well as NBFC's, insurance companies, rating agencies, broking companies, etc.
Ben Bernanke's Opening Press Conference Statement.atul baride
This are the opening remarks before the likely last press conference of over stayed FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke. Ben now driving the Economy Car with Brakes and accelerator. But Where is the steering ..?
"Highlights":
Wage growth continues
Private consumption behind GDP growth
Situation in lending is improving
"In Focus":
The right moment to put the budget in order. Press conference of the Governor of Latvijas Banka (summary) – Ilmārs Rimšēvičs
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
Flash Report - Government Deficit - 6 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2017-ben a kormányzat előzetes bejelentésének megfelelően 2% volt a költségvetés hiánya. Az erős bér- és fogyasztás-bővülés miatt gyorsan nőttek az adóbevételek. A kiadási oldalon a legnagyobb mértékben, 54%-kal a beruházások nőttek, illetve az év végi, diszkrecionális döntéseknek köszönhetően a dologi kiadások. A beruházások várhatóan átmeneti megugrása és az év végi diszkrecionális döntések nélküli egyenleg továbbra is egyensúly közeli. Az államadósság – amely immár az Exim Bank adatait is tartalmazza – a GDP 73.6%-ára mérséklődött az előző évi 76%-ról, dacára annak, hogy az EU-s projektek előfinanszírozása az eredmény-szemléletűnél érdemben magasabb pénzforgalmi deficitet eredményezett. Előretekintve a kockázatok – részben a választásokhoz kötődő bizonytalanság miatt – a deficit növekedése irányába mutatnak.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Bank of Canada Decision and Real GDP – Preview
We expect a very close call for the monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) leaving the overnight rate target unchanged at 1.25%.
Since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), several risks to the inflation outlook have begun to materialise. While headline inflation is comfortably within the inflation target band, indications are that we have passed the low point of the current cycle. Developments in the international environment have placed upward pressure on the inflation trajectory, while the domestic growth outlook remains challenging.
Factsheet for Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund- WishfinAnvi Sharma
The scheme aims to maximize long term capital appreciation by investing primarily in equity & equity related securities of companies engaged in banking & financial services. The scheme would invest in banks as well as NBFC's, insurance companies, rating agencies, broking companies, etc.
Ben Bernanke's Opening Press Conference Statement.atul baride
This are the opening remarks before the likely last press conference of over stayed FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke. Ben now driving the Economy Car with Brakes and accelerator. But Where is the steering ..?
"Highlights":
Wage growth continues
Private consumption behind GDP growth
Situation in lending is improving
"In Focus":
The right moment to put the budget in order. Press conference of the Governor of Latvijas Banka (summary) – Ilmārs Rimšēvičs
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
Flash Report - Government Deficit - 6 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2017-ben a kormányzat előzetes bejelentésének megfelelően 2% volt a költségvetés hiánya. Az erős bér- és fogyasztás-bővülés miatt gyorsan nőttek az adóbevételek. A kiadási oldalon a legnagyobb mértékben, 54%-kal a beruházások nőttek, illetve az év végi, diszkrecionális döntéseknek köszönhetően a dologi kiadások. A beruházások várhatóan átmeneti megugrása és az év végi diszkrecionális döntések nélküli egyenleg továbbra is egyensúly közeli. Az államadósság – amely immár az Exim Bank adatait is tartalmazza – a GDP 73.6%-ára mérséklődött az előző évi 76%-ról, dacára annak, hogy az EU-s projektek előfinanszírozása az eredmény-szemléletűnél érdemben magasabb pénzforgalmi deficitet eredményezett. Előretekintve a kockázatok – részben a választásokhoz kötődő bizonytalanság miatt – a deficit növekedése irányába mutatnak.
Canadian CPI Inflation and Retail Sales
CPI: Total CPI rose by a robust 0.3% m/m in April, in line with market expectations. Gasoline prices (+6.8% m/m) and telephone fees charged by telecom providers (+4.1% m/m) rose sharply. Food prices in restaurants increased by 0.4% in April after surging by 2% during the first three months of 2018; restaurant owners in Ontario are still passing on the steep minimum wage hike to consumers.
Monetary Policy Commentary - March 2017.OTP Bank Ltd.
No change in the central bank’s strategy, monetary conditions left unchanged - OTP Bank comments on latest monetary step of the National Bank of Hungary.
A várakozásokkal összhangban tegnapi ülésén sem változtatott az irányadó kamaton az MNB Monetáris Tanácsa. A három hónapos betét befogadására vonatkozó korlátot azonban a vártnál (600 mrd forint) nagyobb mértékben 750 milliárdról 500 milliárd forintra csökkentették. Olvassa el a teljes elemzést!
LBS Economic Research and Strategy - Canada Real GDP Q2-2017Mark MacIsaac
Bottom Line: Today’s blockbuster GDP report reinforces the need to raise the overnight rate target before the end of
the year. In our view, BoC officials will come up to the conclusion that it is still preferable to stay on the sidelines on
September 6th and hike at the October 25th meeting. Indeed, it seems appropriate to wait after the Federal Reserve’s
September 20th meeting at which time the Fed will give more guidance about how it intends to shrink its balance
sheet and after another possible debt ceiling drama in late September/early October. Moreover, BoC officials should
be in no rush to announce a second 25bps hike since Canadian CPI inflation figures remain well below the 2% target.
A KSH a tegnapi napon publikálta a májusi inflációs adat. A közlés szerint 1,9% volt az áremelkedés üteme. Ez megegyezett a piaci elemzők konszenzusával, viszont meghaladta az OTP Elemzési Központ 1,9%-os várakozását.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
BoC Market Musings: a dovish speech, CPI preview and a lower neutral rate.
BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins gave a dovish speech in NYC last evening. First, Wilkins mentioned that low inflation
was one of many reasons justifying the BoC cautious approach regarding the swift withdrawal of further stimulus. Some of
the key passages that caught our attention are: “There are also times when uncertainty can lead to caution or patience.
Just three weeks ago, the Bank decided to leave the policy rate unchanged… One of the motivations for caution is that
inflation has been in the lower end of the inflation target bands of 1 to 3 per cent for quite some time…the central bank
puts a greater weight on the downside risks when inflation is low to begin with.”
Canadian CPI Preview – July: The Inflation Build-up Continues.
The 0.5% m/m real GDP gain in June and the
54K net job creation in July clearly show that the
Canadian economy has momentum. Our
economy is running at full capacity.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
OTP Bank Report on inflation
1. www.otpresearch.com
REPORT – HUNGARIAN INFLATION
REPORT ON INFLATION
10 November 2017
CPI dropped further and is likely to undershoot the
MNB’s 3% target over its entire forecast horizon
After missing the consensus forecast in September, Hungary CPI was 2.2% YoY, falling short of
the expectations in the polls of Bloomberg, Reuters and portfolio.hu (all indicated 2.3% YoY,
while the MNB predicted 2.4% in its September Inflation Report). Our in-house forecast was
2.1% YoY.
Inflation without volatile items and all government measures (our figure for underlying inflation)
declined to 2.3% from 2.4% a month earlier. We think this indicator is better at capturing
underlying inflationary processes than core inflation (which dropped from 2.8% to 2.7% YoY),
because the latter is not filtered from the effect of indirect tax changes and was recently pushed
up by excise duty hikes on tobacco products. Trend inflation (the aggregate of goods and
market services) declined from 1.6% to 1.3%. Its annualized 3M/3M change (rolling QoQ)
decelerated from 1.8% to 1.7%.
The October data confirmed our view that inflation has topped out. The main driver here is the
base effect of fuel prices, which resulted in 1.3% YoY fuel inflation in October, down from 5.7%
YoY in August. This alone means 0.3 pp decline in the CPI, explaining the majority of the
difference between the 2.2% October and 2.6% August data.
However, it is worth mentioning that beside the obvious effect of fuel prices, all relevant
underlying inflation indicators signal declining price pressure. Core services inflation, trend
inflation, the CSO’s core inflation and processed food inflation indices all dropped to some
extent in October. Cumulative price-setting in the core services inflation is short of the 2014
figure in October, while it had hit the highest levels of this decade in each month earlier this
year.
Please note that three months ago a Focus Economics survey predicted 2.6% average CPI for
2017Q4, and it still suggests 2.4% right now. The most recent rise in oil prices poses upside risk
to our 2017 year-end forecast, though this potential effect on headline CPI is only about 0.3 pp.
If this risk materializes, 2017Q4 CPI is still likely to be close to 2.1% YoY.
As we wrote in our latest report on inflation, we assess the current downturn of the CPI as a
fundamental process. In the lack of any external price shock, given the still very modest
imported inflation, the decelerating ULC growth, the low-kept administered prices and some
base effects, we forecast just a modest, below-market-consensus 1.7% CPI for 2018 (even
though risks are tilted to the upside, due to the strong momentum of domestic demand). The
November issue of Focus Economics survey indicates 2.7% YoY CPI for 2018.
Furthermore, we do not expect the consumer price index to meet the MNB’s 3% target, not even
until the end of 2019. Besides, this year's higher crude oil prices point to lower 2018 fuel
inflation.
As a result, the MNB will not be in hurry to tighten monetary policy conditions. Our baseline
scenario is that the 3M deposit rate will remain 0.9% well into 2019 and the 3M BUBOR (which
can be considered as an effective monetary policy rate now) will be close to zero until 2019.
Furthermore, given the appreciation pressure on the HUF, the MNB indicated that it could
introduce new non-conventional monetary policy tools in order to bring long-term yields down.
The central bank has not published any information yet, though speculations are widespread:
from long-term IRSs through some kind of targeted liquidity providing, or some programmes to
force the financial sector to buy long-term maturity bonds, to the extension of the maturity of the
main policy tool (currently 3M, supposedly to 6M).
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+36 1 288 7561
SoványA@otpbank.hu
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2. www.otpresearch.com
REPORT – HUNGARIAN INFLATION
Chart 1: Summary chart of inflationary processes
(annual changes, %)
1.Chart 2: Core* and trend inflation*
(annual changes, %)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
*: Filtered from indirect tax and visit fee changes, and one-off items
2.
Chart 3: Underlying inflation indicators*
(annualized MoM changes, %)
3.Chart 4: Goods inflation*
(annual changes, %)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
*: Filtered from indirect tax and visit fee changes, and one-off items
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
*: Filtered from indirect tax changes
Chart 5: Core services inflation*
(annualized 3M/3M changes, %)
1. Chart 6: Trend inflation*
(annualized 3M/3M changes, %)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
*: Filtered from indirect tax (including financial transaction tax) and
visit fee changes
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
*: Filtered from indirect tax (including financial transaction tax) and
visit fee changes
3. www.otpresearch.com
REPORT – HUNGARIAN INFLATION
Chart 7: : Market services inflation*
(annual changes, %)
2. Chart 8: Intra-year price setting in core services*
(cumulated, over previous Dec, %, SA)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
*: Filtered from indirect tax (including financial transaction tax) and
visit fee changes
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
*: Filtered from indirect tax (including financial transaction tax) and
visit fee changes
Chart 9: Inflation of food products
(annual changes, %)
3. Chart 10: Inflation forecast*
(YoY, %, NSA)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
*: Filtered inflation reflects to inflation any volatile items as well as
all governmental measures
4. www.otpresearch.com
REPORT – HUNGARIAN INFLATION
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