For mobile network

1. 1
1
Dennis Roberson
SVP – CTO
3G and Hot Spot
Networking

2. 2
2
1 Billion +
Subscribers
World Market Trend (circ fall 2000)
1 Billion
Subscribers
INTERNET
380 Million Subscribers
WIRELESS
580 Million Subscribers
2000 2004
“WIRELESS
INTERNET”
Market
Size
Source: Commerce Net Research, NUA.NET, Motorola

3. 3
3
Advertising in The Economist
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec 94 Dec 95 Dec 96 Dec 97 Dec 98 Dec 99
with Web address

4. 4
4
Wireless Will Surpass Wired Access
Source: Salomon Smith Barney, Motorola Estimates.
Wireless
Internet
Wired
Internet
Wireless
Voice
Wired
Voice
*Estimate
1
10
100
1000
10000
1997 1998 1999 2000* 2001* 2002* 2003* 2004* 2005*
Subscribers
[Millions]

5. 5
5
Worldwide Cumulative Subscribers
Source: Motorola Forecast
2G
1G
3G
2.5G
2G
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Cumulative
Subscribers
(Millions)

6. 6
6
3G Candybar
Voice, Data
3G Candybar
Voice, Data, Video
Voice Voice/Data Voice/Data/Image/
Video
3G Clam
Voice
Data
Data/Voice
3G Clam
Voice, Data
iMode
Voice, Data
Mini Computer
Data
PDA/PHS
Data, Voice
2-Way Communicator
Data/voice
Card
Phone
Electronic
Wallet
Embedded
3G Candybar
Voice
New devices are being introduced
Enhanced Devices

7. 7
7
3G
2.5G
2G
Data Transmission Speed - kbps 9.6 32 64 128 144 384 2,000 20->200K
Still Imaging
Video Streaming
Voice
Audio Streaming
Text Messaging
E-mail
Mobile Radio
Mobile
Television
Mobile Video
Conferencing
E-Commerce
Video On Demand
Increasing
Value
Wireless bandwidth is increasing...
3.5G
4G
Shared Environments

8. 8
8
Technology Evolution
GSM
IS-95A
PDC
IS-136
cdma2000
iDEN
1xEV-DV
(1XTREME)
IS-95B
1xEV-DO
(HDR)
GPRS EDGE
W-CDMA HSPDA
2G 2.5G 3G
world
Japan
U.S.
U.S.
U.S./Asia
NTT DoCoMo
A
T
&
T
Korea
iDEN
packet data

9. 9
9
0
32
64
9.6
128
144
384
2,000 1G 2G 3G
Voice
Text Messaging
Video Streaming
Still Imaging
Audio Streaming
Data
Transmission
Speed
-
k
bps
Electronic
Newspaper
Remote
Medical
Service
(image)
Video
Conference
(High quality)
Telephone
(Voice)
Voice
Mail
E-Mail
Fax
Electronic
Publishing Karaoke
Video
Conference
(Lower quality)
JPEG
Still Photos
Mobile
Radio
Viideo Surveillance,
Video Mail, Travel
Image
Audio
Voice-driven Web Pages
Streaming Audio
Data
Weather, Traffic, News,
Sports, Stock updates
Mobile TV
E-Commerce
Video on
Demand:
Sports, News
Weather
The Promise of 3G

10. 10
10
0
32
64
9.6
128
144
384
2,000 1G 2G 3G
Voice
Text Messaging
Video Streaming
Still Imaging
Audio Streaming
Data
Transmission
Speed
-
k
bps Technology Data Rates
cdma2000
GSM, IS-136, IS-95A
GPRS
EDGE
WCDMA

11. 11
11
User Peak Data Rate
171.0 64.0
2072.0
614.2 473.0
2400.0
10000.0
5180.0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
kbps
GPRS (1,1,3) IS-95B
(1,3,1)
WCDMA
(1,3,1)
cdma2000
(1,3,1)
EDGE(1,3,3)
(Mixed
FR,HR)
1xEV-DO
(1,3,1)
WCDMA-
HSDPA
(1,3,1)
1xEV-DV
(1,3,1)

12. 12
12
What has happened to 3G Expectations?
Spain
Licensing
With early TTM
Bumper UK
Licensing
Bumper
German
Licensing
Limited WAP
Success
Slippage
Of
commercial
GPRS
Italian + Swiss
Auction Failures
Terminal
Restrictions
Huge New
Entrant Interest
Industry
Financial
Impact
Expectations
For Early
3G Deployment
High
Low
Dec
Jul
Jan
2000

13. 13
13
Evolution driven by…

14. 14
14
3G Challenges…

15. 15
15
2G Cellular Volume Deterioration
Shipments
[Millions]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
ARC (06/01)
Cahners (07/01)
Gartner/Dataquest (08/01)
Duetche Bank (08/01)
Merrill Lynch (09/01)
UBS Warburg (09/01)
Lehman Brothers (09/01)
Motorola

16. 16
16
Cellular Subscriber Growth
USA
China
Estimates
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Cellular
Subscribers
[M]
Mexico UnitedStates France Germany
Italy NordicCountries Spain U.K.
Russia India China Japan
India
Japan
Germany
Italy / UK

17. 17
17
3G Spectrum Costs
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Italy
Netherlands
Netherlands
Belgium
Switzerland
Denmark
Portugal
Sweden
Austria
Austria
Spain
Norway
Finland
Estimated
Cost per
Licence
in $Bn
= Already Issued
Before Forecast
Auction
Hybrid
Beauty Contest
Raised Half
Of expectations
Actual Raised
Raised only 20%
Of expectations
Postponed
Because of
lack of interest
Baskerville Forecast: Q200
Raised only 33% of
Expectations

18. 18
18
ITU
Japan
Europe
China
USA
3G
3G
3G
3G
3G
3G
3G
1885
1885
1885
2025
2025
2025
2025
2110
2110
2110
2110
2110
2200
2200
2200
2200
2200
MSS
MSS
1850
DECT
1880 1900
1895 1918.1
PHS
1980 2010
1980 2010
Broadcast
Auxiliary
1930
1910 1930 1990
PCS
PCS Unl.
PCS
Reserve
MSS MSS
All Frequencies in MHz
* Region 2
MSS MSS
3G
MSS
MSS*
MSS*
2170
2120
2170
1996 2010 2186
2150
MSS
DCS
1800
DCS
1800
1710 1785 1805
A D B E F C A D B E F C
3G Spectrum Availability

19. 19
19
3G - Operator Slippages
Original Plan Latest Plan Slippage Publicly announced reason
Vodafone UK Nov-01 Nov-02 12-16 months Handsets
SK Telecom May-02 May-03 12 months Handsets, infrastructure
Telefonica Aug-01 Jul-02 11 months Licensing relaxation
Japan Telecom Nov-01 Oct-02 8-11 months Gain 3GPP standards
BT Cellnet Dec-01 Sep-02 10 months Infrastructure
France Telecom Feb-02 H2-02 5-10 months Handsets
NTT May-01 Oct-01* 6 months Handsets, software, interference
BT Cellnet
SK Telecom
Japan Telecom
Vodafone UK
Telefonica
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Planned Launch Revised Launch
May May
Nov
Nov
Nov
Aug
2001 2002 2003
Q3
July
Oct
Dec Sep
France Telecom Feb Sep/Oct
NTT Oct*
Delay in Roll Out

20. 20
20
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Bandwidths Trends Compared
(early adopters, highest bandwidths)
bps
Office LAN
Home/WAN
Personal Wireless
Internet Backbone
WLAN

21. 21
21
Bandwidth Trends - Personal Wireless
(Mobile/Portable)
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
bps
GPRS
3G
4G
2G
3.5G

22. 22
22
Wireless Data Trends
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Max
Data
Rate
(Kbps) Wide Area
B’tooth/802.15.3
HiperLAN2
Median2
IEEE 802.11
W-CDMA
EDGE
GPRS
HSCD
WLAN (~Fixed)
WAN (Fully Mobile)
PAN (Nomadic)

23. 23
23
Key WLAN / PAN Radio Technologies
Enterprise
Broadband
Home
Nomadic
2000 2003
2002
2001 2004
802.11b
HomeRF2 or 802.11a/e or HL2
Bluetooth/802.15.1 802.15.3
Speed: 11 - 22Mbps
Technology: 2.4GHz, DSS
Speed: 22 - 100Mbps
Technology: 5.XGHz, OFDM
Speed: 1.1 Mbps
Technology: 2.4GHz, FH
Speed: 10 - 22 – 54 Mbps
Technology: 5.XGHz, OFDM
Speed: 700Kbps
Technology: 2.4GHz, FH
Speed: 20+ Mbps
Technology: 2.4 GHz
Strategy: Transistion to
5GHz WPAN; UWB
Products: Set-top box, etc
Driver: Reduce setup costs
new markets/services
Products: Cell-phones, etc
Driver: Competition,
new markets & products
All Speeds at RAW bandwidth. Delivered
payload varies
Products: Vertical
Driver: Competition
Bluetooth2
Speed: 2-10 Mbps
Technology: 2.4GHz FH
*Hotspots may use Enterprise or Nomadic technologies
802.11a or HiperLAN2
HomeRF

24. 24
24
Wide Area coverage
Provided by 2G
Carriers
Greater Washington DC Area
Broadband
802.11x
Pentagon, coverage
provided by “US
Military Telecom”
2.5G GPRS
Broadband
802.11x
Reagan Airport,
coverage provided
by 3rd Party Vendor
Broadband
802.11x
Mall area coverage
provided by Verizon
Requires a multi-mode device
(GPRS and 802.11)
Requires a new
billing model
Broadband “Island” Scenario
slide courtesy of Les Eastwood

25. 25
25
Enterprise Wireless Mobility Model
Campus
R
Level 3 - Regional Low
Speed Wireless (56Kbps)
Level 2 - Campus High
Speed Wireless LANs
(100Mbps)
Level 1 - Personal
Area Network (.5-
10Mbps)

26. 26
26
WLANs and PANs Enhance Cellular
• Timeliness: 11Mbps available now
• Low Cost for Operator/Owner and User
– Free Spectrum: 300-500MHz of unlicensed spectrum
– Low equipment cost
– Enables low cost/flat fee Wireless to consumer
• Superior End User Experience
– 54Mb/s vs. 1-2Mb/s
– All existing and future Internet applications already work
slide courtesy of Les Eastwood
(and Could Threaten 3G)

27. 27
27
Wireless
Internet
Local Access & Control
Data Only
No Roaming
Private Network
WLAN Today
High Speed – Point Coverage
Technologies
Geared toward
Data in the
Enterprise
Slow Data Rates
Global Roaming
High Speed Mobility
Cellular Today
Low Data Rate – Wide Coverage
Technologies
Geared toward
Consumer Voice
and Data
WLAN & Cellular Convergence
Is there opportunity here?

28. 28
28
802.11
Or Any
WLAN
Technology
Internet
Benefits:
Local Access, Common Control
Data & Voice
Point to Point Roaming
VPN over Public Network
Increasing Data Rates in More
Places
Seamless Roaming and Billing
High Speed Mobility …
Integrate Cellular with WLAN
Common Features/Capabilities
• Authentication
• Billing
• Preferences/Call Control
• Access Capable (802.11, BT, Cellular)
iMGW
Platform
Technology Tailored for a Seamless Solution
Enterprise or Hot Spot
Nomadic
Home

29. 29
29
Beyond 3G (B3G)
1G
WLAN
Hotspots
GPRS
+802.11
3G 4G
2G
1980’s 2000’s 2010’s
UMTS +
HiperLAN
Cellular+
WLAN+
Bdcast
GPRS
+DVB
 B3G key attributes:
 interworking and cooperation
between different Radio Networks
 user as the focus, opportune
delivery of the content/services
 multi-mode terminals free to
camp on any available network
fully IP based
disruptive technology
 potentially complementary to 3G
 potentially competitive to 3G
1990’s

30. 30
30
DVB-T
UMTS
GPRS
Hiperlan2
AP
Ipv6
Backbone(s)
Internet
IPv4IPv6
Services
Management domain
A moving IP- subnet
B3G Vision
Composite Radio
Ressource
management
(Spectrum utilization,
links/traffic
optimization)
Composite Domain
Management
(mobility, QoS,
multicast, AAA)
Composite Service
Delivery management
(Billing, …)
Management
Functions
Main Attributes:
Core network IPv6 based
Better support of mobility, security and “unlimited” address space
Wireless access points become IP gateways
Different radio access technologies deployed within a domain
Optimization of the radio resources

31. 31
31
US
Japan
Europe
BRAN/Hiperlan
U-NII U-NII
5200 5400 5600 5800
5100 5300 5500 5700
MMAC
5.15 - 5.35
5.15 - 5.35 5.725 -5.825
5.470 - 5.725
BRAN/Hiperlan
5.15 - 5.25
Unlicensed
300 MHz
License-
exempt
455 MHz
100 MHz
Spectrum Allocation at 5 GHz
200mW 1W
1W
50mW
50mW 250mW

32. 32
32
WLAN Standards & Technologies
HiperLAN
2
802.11b
2.4 GHz
4ch.
(80MHz)
5 GHz
US: 12 ch.
(300MHz)
EU: 19 ch.
(455MHz)
JP: 5 ch.
(100MHz)
•54 Mbps/channel net bit rate
•Simple and adapted to corporate apps
•“Wireless Ethernet", no QoS, limited for multimedia
•Future 802.11e, h incl. QoS, DFS+TPC, security, roaming
•54 Mbps/channel net bit rate
•Multimedia ready (supports QoS, Ethernet, ATM, 1394)
•Not widely adopted - pushed by Europe
•Better suited to Home & Multimedia applications
•11Mbs/channel net bit rate
•First on market, market education
•Limited in data rate, and capacity (spectrum, interference)
802.11a
• 802.11a+e+h ≈ HL2
• Japan is going 11a for Corporate, and HiSWAN (NTT) for Home & Public
IEEE802.11a evolutionary approach ↔ HiperLAN2 support of multimedia

33. 33
33
Forces affecting the Future of 5 GHz WLAN
Economy/Industry Downturn
Consumer Confusion
22 Mbps 2.4 GHz solutions
Technical Challenges
Enabling Applications
Cost
Capacity collapse 2.4GHz
Speed/Media needs
Quality of Service
2.4 GHz interference
Security
Range
V
O
L
U
M
E
T I M E

34. 34
34
Wireless System Landscape
Data Rate to the User
High Mobility
speech, some
data
Limited Mobility:
Speech, data
Fixed Access,
High speed data
In-Home /
In-Building
3G
Mobility,
Functions
WLAN / PAN
4G
1Kbps 10Kbps 100Kbps 1Mbps 10Mbps 100Mbps
2G
1G