Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion
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Professor Schneider is actively involved with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and specializes in projecting global climate change and related impacts for the future. He is also dedicated to communicating science to the public.
![Stephen H. Schneider * Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor, Department of Biology Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment Stanford University Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion SWISSNEX, Meeting the Energy Challenge Wednesday, March 17, 2010 7:30-8:30pm *[Website for more info: climatechange.net.]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/swissnex-sanfran-schneider-100318123042-phpapp01/85/Motivating-Game-Changing-Actions-In-an-Era-of-Spin-and-Confusion-1-320.jpg)
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Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion
- 1. Stephen H. Schneider * Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor, Department of Biology Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment Stanford University Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion SWISSNEX, Meeting the Energy Challenge Wednesday, March 17, 2010 7:30-8:30pm *[Website for more info: climatechange.net.]
- 4. Falsifies Global Warming?? Going to Hell in a Handbasket??
- 16. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
- 17. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
- 18. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming Non linear “tipping points” matter!
- 19. Greenland Ice Melt, 1992 vs. 2002
- 21. More snow Fast melting
- 24. Moulin Creating a “tipping point”?
- 25. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
- 26. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) High tech NASA attempts to discover Greenland tipping point??
- 29. Competing Explanations Tipping Global Warming
- 30. Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1 to 1.5°C (11.4%; 1 in 9 odds) 1.5 to 2°C (20.6%; 1 in 5 odds) 2 to 2.5°C (22.5%; 1 in 4 odds) 2.5 to 3°C (16.8%; 1 in 6 odds) 3 to 4°C (16.2%; 1 in 6 odds) 4 to 5°C (4.6%; 1 in 22 odds) >5°C (3.8%; 1 in 26 odds)
- 31. NASA After Schaer et al., 2004 Switzerland Summer T, 1860-2003 Extreme Events: Heat
- 32. IPCC, 2007 Extreme Events: Heat
- 33. Wildfires Frequency increased four fold in last 30 years . Source: Westerling et al. 2006 Western US area burned
- 34. Extreme Events: Wildfires Late Snowmelt Years Early Snowmelt Years Fewer, smaller fires More, larger fires Westerling
- 36. Adaptation??
- 37. Adaptation Move up (or polerward); plant (or develop) warmer varieties; or... abandon
- 38. Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1 to 1.5°C (11.4%; 1 in 9 odds) 1.5 to 2°C (20.6%; 1 in 5 odds) 2 to 2.5°C (22.5%; 1 in 4 odds) 2.5 to 3°C (16.8%; 1 in 6 odds) 3 to 4°C (16.2%; 1 in 6 odds) 4 to 5°C (4.6%; 1 in 22 odds) >5°C (3.8%; 1 in 26 odds) Little adaptive capacity
- 40. Need Behavior Change Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
- 41. Need Behavior Change Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
- 61. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
- 62. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
- 63. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline --mitigation for changes beyond what we can adapt to 2-Performance 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
- 64. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
- 67. If a KWh is $0.15, then 40,000 GWh hours per year is a savings of about $6 billion per year!
- 68. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation -IT Opportunity ) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
- 74. Out of the box thinking : combined wind, solar thermal with storage, smart grids and uses for “dumped "energy when system overproduces
- 76. Figure 1. Concept of low-temperature pyrolysis bio-energy with biochar sequestration. Typically, about 50% of the pyrolyzed biomass is converted into biochar and can be returned to soil. Source: Johannes Lehmann, 2007
- 77. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
- 78. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
- 79. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
- 80. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
- 81. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
- 82. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
Editor's Notes
- Here is an outline of the structure of my talk. First I’ll discuss some of the key findings of a recent Intergovernmental report that investigated the nature and causes of climate change. Then I’ll define some terms that I’ll be using in my talk. Next I’ll try to give you some indication of the principal advances that have been made in our knowledge of the causes of climate change. Most of the talk will focus on discussion of one example of a so-called “fingerprint” study - a statistical comparison of patterns of climate change in observed data and in model predictions. Finally, in my concluding remarks, I’ll point out some of the key uncertainties in this type of work, and tell you why I believe that we all have a stake in advancing the science.
- In the context of vulnerability, vulnerability is generally higher to extreme events, because we are less adapted to cope with extreme conditions, especially as they move beyond what we have seen previously
- Expected to be one of the near-term challenges of climate change, since small changes in average conditions can create large changes in the incidence of extremes.
- 1972 - 2003, NPS, USFS & BIA Fires over 1000 acres
- Here is an outline of the structure of my talk. First I’ll discuss some of the key findings of a recent Intergovernmental report that investigated the nature and causes of climate change. Then I’ll define some terms that I’ll be using in my talk. Next I’ll try to give you some indication of the principal advances that have been made in our knowledge of the causes of climate change. Most of the talk will focus on discussion of one example of a so-called “fingerprint” study - a statistical comparison of patterns of climate change in observed data and in model predictions. Finally, in my concluding remarks, I’ll point out some of the key uncertainties in this type of work, and tell you why I believe that we all have a stake in advancing the science.