See how Moore’s Law and the convergence of science and technology (info + bio + nano + neuro) affects the future of healthcare, and learn about the market drivers & inhibitors.

1. By Wayne Caswell
The FUTURE of
Health Care
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

2. From FutureMed University
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

3. WHICH Future?
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

4. Social
Media
Rising
Costs
Digital
Sensors
Telemedicine
Telepresence
Wireless
Broadband
Aging
Boomers
Smartphones
& Tablets
Modern
Health
Talk
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

6. © 2013, Modern Health Talk
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989
Live Births per Year (Millions)
Baby Bust
(41 Million)
Baby Boom
(76 Million)
Echo Boom
(64 Million)
World Population more than doubled in 65 years.
Average Lifespan up 30 years over last century.
Living for 1,000 years is possible, futurists say.
As 10,000 Boomers turn 65/day, 90,000 Doctor Shortfall.
Governments, Cities & Homes aren’t ready.
Unpaid Family Caretakers pick up slack.

7. IBM Mainframe computer, circa 1972
(System/370 Model 158-3)
Apple smartphone, Christmas 2011
(iPhone 4S)
COST: ~$3.5 million ($19M in 2011 dollars) COST: $200-$400 with 2 year contract
PERFORMANCE: 1 MIPS
(million instructions per second)
PERFORMANCE: 5,000 MIPS (1 GHz dual-core
processor rated at 2.5 DMIPS/MHz per core)
MEMORY: 4 MB max MEMORY: 512 MB standard
STORAGE: typical 1.5 GB (200 MB/drive) STORAGE: 16, 32 or 64 GB © Modern Health Talk

8. IBM Mainframe computer, circa 1972
(System/370 Model 158-3)
My Toothbrush
(Philips Sonicare)
COST: ~$3.5 million ($19M in 2011 dollars) COST: $69.99
PERFORMANCE: 1 MIPS
(million instructions per second)
PERFORMANCE: 10 MIPS
(Zilog Z8 embedded microprocessor)
MEMORY: 4 MB max
STORAGE: typical 1.5 GB (200 MB/drive) © 2013, Modern Health Talk

9. SENSORS in Homes measure:
PHONE for REMOTE ACCESS
• Contact,
• Temperature,
• Light,
• Motion,
• Acceleration,
• Smell (CO2, off-gassing),
• Pressure (pulse, blood pressure),
• Moisture,
• Chemicals
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

10. SENSORS in Homes, Cars and Clothing measure:
PHONE as HEALTH GATEWAY
• Contact,
• Temperature,
• Light,
• Motion,
• Acceleration,
• Smell (CO2, off-gassing),
• Pressure (pulse, blood pressure),
• Moisture,
• Chemicals
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

11. Minimally Invasive, Continuous Monitoring
Monitor Trends to Avoid Lows & Highs
Understand Context of Readings
Guardian Glucose Monitor
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

12. FDA cleared for licensed medical professionals and prescribed patients
to record, display, store and transfer single-channel electrocardiogram
(ECG) rhythms.
Use AliveCor iPhone case to take ECG every day for a year for less than $1/test.
Captures more info than a typical ECG at the doctor’s office and costs less.
Send 365 ECGs to the doctor for less than the cost to have one done at the hospital.
Monitor trends, know context of deviations, and predict (and avoid) problems.
$199 AliveCor Heart Monitor
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

13. Capsule Endoscopy
A disposable capsule with video camera can examine parts of the small
intestine that standard scopes can’t reach. Video images are received by a
recorder work on a belt and then downloaded to a computer for analysis.
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

14. Sensors as Temporary Tattoo
The devices can pick up heartbeats when stuck on the chest, skeletal
muscle activity when on the leg, and brainwaves when on the forehead.
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

15. 3D Printed Body Parts
LIVER EARS
BONES
Also:
• bladder,
• trachea,
• cartilage,
• urine tubes,
• spinal cords
But it’s still
just Research
It is now possible to use 3D printers to print cells that can multiply into
actual fully printed tissues used in medical research… and to create organs.
© Modern Health Talk

16. Brain-Computer Interface
It’s now possible to Command a Robot or Fly a Helicopter with your thoughts.
And bulky sensor are no loner needed.

17. TeleHEALTH & TeleMEDICINE
At Home, at the Office,
on the Go, at a Kiosk
© Modern Health Talk

18. © 2013, Modern Health Talk

20. Genes,
Proteins &
Chemicals
Cells &
Atoms
Cognitive
Science
Bits &
Networks
INFO
NEURO
BIO
NANO
21st Century
Medicine
Science & Tech Convergence

21. Peter Pan Homes
Governments,
Cities & Builders
are Not Ready.
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

22. GREED
And the Corrupting Power
of Money in Politics
• Immensely Profitable Industry
• Patients as Paying Customers
• FFS: Treat Symptoms
• Resistant to Change
• Lobbying Influence
• Hospitals
• Insurers
• Drug Companies
• Testing Companies
• Equipment Providers
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

23. “You have a rare condition
called „Good Health.” Frankly,
I‟m not sure how to treat it.”
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

24. WATSON
Now being applied to Health Care & Medical Research.
Watson can parse & analyze 300 M books in 3 seconds.
Medical Knowledge Doubles every 5 Years.
250x faster and 8x smaller.
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

25. By 2013, a Supercomputer will exceed the computational &
analytical power of the Human Brain. (Ray Kurzweil)
By 2023, a $1,000 computer will; and
by 2037, a $0.01 computer will.
By 2049, a $1,000 computer will exceed the computational
& analytical power of the Human Race.
And by 2059 a $0.01 computer will.
What IMPLICATIONS: Health, Career, Inequality, Political?
Technology is advancing . . .
EXPONENTIALLY
© 2013, Modern Health Talk

26. Is the Future Half Empty?
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
1. Too many People
2. Too many Elderly
3. Fossil Fuel driven Economy
4. Climate Change
5. Widening Income Gap
6. Greed
7. Education Never Over
8. Already Invented
9. Growth Limits