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A Chart Book On Benchmark,
Sectors, Global Market and Inter Market Analysis
Monthly
Technical Outlook
4th March 2024
Fresh Bullish Breakout In Nifty; Short Term Target 22600-22700
Ascending Triangle Projects Positional Target of 23000-23100
Nifty Weekly Chart
Triangle Target 23000-23100
Bullish MACD
Bullish RSI
Ascending Triangle
Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms on Nifty Monthly Chart
Expanded MACD From Its Signal Line Indicates Rising Momentum
Nifty Monthly Chart
Higher Bottoms
Higher Tops
Bullish MACD
Bullish RSI
Above 47650 BankNifty Could March Towards All Time Highs & Beyond
Support Shifts Up To 46000
Bullish Reversal from
Trend Line
Breakout Above 47650
42105
27 Oct 2023
32290
17 June 2022
MACD Above Equilibrium Line
RSI Bullish Crossover
BankNifty Weekly Chart
Below 1 Long To Short Ratio To Lead Further Short Covering By FIIs
0.53
0.54
0.83
0.84
0.82
0.78
0.80
0.73
0.69
0.65
0.62
0.57
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.52
0.49
0.52
0.60
0.57
0.48
0.46
0.42
0.32
0.33
0.28
0.94
0.87
0.85
0.88
0.96
1.18
1.90
1.94
1.73
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1-Mar
29-Feb
28-Feb
27-Feb
26-Feb
23-Feb
22-Feb
21-Feb
20-Feb
19-Feb
16-Feb
15-Feb
14-Feb
13-Feb
12-Feb
9-Feb
8-Feb
7-Feb
6-Feb
5-Feb
2-Feb
1-Feb
31-Jan
30-Jan
29-Jan
25-Jan
24-Jan
23-Jan
20-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
FIIS LONG TO SHORT RATIO IN INDEX FUTURES
FII Still Carrying More Shorts than Longs In Index
March Month Has Been Good For Nifty In Last 15 Years;
Except 2020(Covid Year),March Yielded Positive Returns in Last 6 Years
Midcap and Smallcap Indices Caught in to Narrow Consolidation
Nifty MidCap 100 Index Weekly Chart Nifty SmallCap 100 Index Weekly Chart
MACD Losing Momentum
From All Time High Levels
MACD Losing Momentum
From All Time High Levels
Midcap Index Stuck in Narrow
Range for Last Four Weeks
Smallcap Index Stuck in Narrow
Range for Last Four Weeks
Negative Divergence in Stocks Above 200 DMA Against Nifty500 Index
Expect Broader Markets to Underperform Nifty in the Short-Term
Nifty500 Weekly Chart
Falling % Of Stocks Above 200 DMA
Rising Nifty500 Index
Expect Private Sector Banks To Outperform Nifty From Here
At Long Term Support
Private Bank Index v/s Nifty
Monthly Ratio Chart
Nifty Offers Better Risk Reward Against NSE500 At Current Levels
Nifty v/s NSE500 Monthly Ratio Chart
At All Time Low
RSI in Extreme Oversold Zone
Expect Bullish Reversals in Commodities
Bloomberg Commodity Index Monthly Chart
Major Weights : Comex Gold, Brent Crude, Nymex Crude, Natural Gas
At Long Term Support
World Market Indices Registers All Time High
MSCI ACWI Index Monthly Chart MSCI World Index Monthly Chart Life Highs
Life Highs
India Politics : Elections, Markets and Seasonality
For the last five consecutive Loksabha elections, 6 months before the announcement of election results, Nifty has rallied
between 10-32% going into the day of election result announcement.
We entered those six months period beginning of Nov’23 and Since then Nifty has already gained more than 17% till date. If
we were to take optimistic scenario based on the history of Lok Sabha elections, we can expect extension of the gains even
from the current levels. Up move of 5% from the current levels will take Nifty towards 23500 odd levels. Every period had its
own contextual shades but broadly for 25 years, last 5 LS elections and looking at the current technical setup of Indian
benchmark indices, we can not rule out the possibility of healthy returns in the Nifty from here.
Impact Of War On Indian Markets
From the recent war which we saw in Oct 2023, Nifty has risen 17% till now and if we were to take conservative 1 year post war return of
21.6% seen after Russia-Ukraine War, Target levels for Nifty comes at 23200 odd levels.
NSE Auto : Amazing rally and no signs of any tiredness at the highs.
NSE Consumer Durables : Decisive upside breakout of the crucial hurdle.
➢ Sharp rally. No sign of any reversal yet at the highs.
➢ Formation of higher tops and bottoms.
➢ Bullish Trendline is offering strong supports so far.
➢ Continuously tagging Upper BB band
➢ Stocks with Positive Bias: M&M, BAJA AUTO. MARUTI.
NSE AUTO Weekly Chart
➢ Decisive upside breakout of overhead resistance.
➢ Larger degree higher tops and bottoms formation.
➢ Stocks with Positive Bias: VGUARD. Dixon, BLUESTARCO,
Havells and Titan.
NSE Consumer Durables Weekly Chart
NSE Metal : Placed at the edge of moving above the consolidation.
NSE Oil & Gas : Sharp up trended movement. Formation of bullish pattern.
➢ Consistent upmove as per higher tops and higher
bottoms. No sign of any reversal yet at the highs.
➢ Presence of strong support of weekly 10 EMA.
➢ Formation of long lower shadows in weekly
candle. Signaling emergence of buying at lows.
➢ Bullish weekly RSI indication.
➢ Stocks with Positive Bias: Tata Steel, SAIL, Jindal
Steel and JSW Steel.
NSE Metal Weekly Chart
➢ Sharp trended upmove without showing any major downward
corrections in the last few months
➢ Formation of bullish higher highs and lows as per weekly chart.
➢ Last two week’s consolidation seems to have ended with bullish
candlestick formation on the weekly chart.
➢ The sector is ready to continue further upside.
➢ Stocks with Positive Bias: Reliance Industries, GAIL, Oil India
and ONGC.
NSE Oil & Gas Weekly Chart
Global Market Update : FTSE and NASDAQ
➢ Breakout has been witnessed some
time back.
➢ Volatile throwback fall has ended.
➢ Bullish momentum would pickup in
coming days.
➢ Stochastic shows positive sign.
➢ Registered a new record high after two plus
years.
➢ Trading at uncharted territory.
➢ Uptrend would continue.
➢ MACD placed with bullish signal.
Technical Observations
➢ In the month of February, Nifty rose 1.80% and registered a fresh all time high of 22297. BankNifty underperformed Nifty
by limiting its gain to 0.27%. Nifty Midcap 100 and Small cap 100 Indices also underperformed the Nifty by falling 0.48%
and 0.31% respectively. Indices like PSU Bank, Oil & Gas, CPSE, Realty, Auto and Pharma gained the most from sectoral
indices, while Media, Private banks and FMCG indices underperformed the Nifty by closing in red.
➢ In the starting of the current month, Nifty registered a fresh all time high of 22419.
➢ During the last week, Nifty found support on the upward sloping trend line adjoining the swing lows of 24th Jan 2024 and
14th Feb 2024. After finding support, Nifty has broken out from the ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart, which
indicates continuation of an uptrend.
➢ Nifty has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the monthly charts, which indicates bullish structure on
medium term time frame.
➢ Indicators and oscillators like MACD and RSI have turned bullish on the weekly and monthly charts.
➢ Short term resistance for Nifty is seen at 22600-22700. However ascending triangle pattern projects the upside target of
23100 in the short term. Supports for the Nifty is seen at 22200, while positional support remains at 21800.
Technical Observations
➢ Percentage of stocks above 200 DMA in NSE500 index have been falling despite the rise in the Nifty500 Index. This shows
the negative divergence and sign some caution in the Midcap and Smallcap space. Traders needs to be vigilant and
selective while trading in Midcap and Smallcap space. We can expect broader markets to underperform the Nifty.
➢ FIIs still carrying more shorts than longs in index futures, which could ignite further short covering in the index.
➢ Seasonality chart of last 15 years indicates that March has been good month for Nifty in terms of monthly returns.
➢ Monthly ratio chart of Nifty vs Nifty500 has reached to an all time low levels, which indicates the good chances of mean
reversion to happen. Expect Nifty to outperform broader markets from here.
➢ Monthly ratio chart of private sector bank vs Nifty has reached long term support of horizontal trend line and we expect
private banks to outperform the Nifty from here.
➢ Bloomberg commodity index has reached long term support of horizontal trend line, which indicates good chances of
Gold, Crude and Natural Gas to rise from current levels.
➢ Loksabha election trends in last 25 years, suggests possibility of Nifty doing very well till election results coming in May
2024.
➢ Geopolitical issues especially wars turned out to be an investment opportunity historically in India and Indian markets
seems to have absorbed the supply which came in October and already yielded 17% since then. Going by that data, even
conservative estimates could take Nifty towards 23100-23200 levels
➢ World Market indices like MSCI World and ACWI have registered fresh all time highs which augers well for Indian markets
➢ Considering the evidences discussed above, we believe that bullish trend of the Indian market will continue and dips
should be utilized to go long. Nifty could extend its uptrend towards next resistances of 22600-22700 followed by 23000-
23100. Supports for the Nifty are seen at 22200 and 21800.
Actionable:
❑ Trading Strategy: Utilize Dips to Accumulate Longs.
Action Points Nifty (CMP 22378.40 ) Bank Nifty (CMP 47297.50)
Short Term Trend Bullish Bullish
Medium Term Trend Bullish Bullish
Short Term Resistance 22600-22700 47650
Short Term Support 22200 46000
Positional Resistance 23100-23200 50000
Positional Support 21800 45660
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is solely for information of the recipient only. The report must not be used as a singular basis of any investment decision. The views herein are of a general nature and do not consider the risk appetite or
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and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or
implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete. HSL is not
obliged to update this report for such changes. HSL has the right to make changes and modifications at any time.
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This document is not, and should not, be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report should not be construed as an invitation or solicitation to do business with HSL. HSL may from time to
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Monthly Technical Outlook 4 March 2024.pdf

  • 1. A Chart Book On Benchmark, Sectors, Global Market and Inter Market Analysis Monthly Technical Outlook 4th March 2024
  • 2. Fresh Bullish Breakout In Nifty; Short Term Target 22600-22700 Ascending Triangle Projects Positional Target of 23000-23100 Nifty Weekly Chart Triangle Target 23000-23100 Bullish MACD Bullish RSI Ascending Triangle
  • 3. Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms on Nifty Monthly Chart Expanded MACD From Its Signal Line Indicates Rising Momentum Nifty Monthly Chart Higher Bottoms Higher Tops Bullish MACD Bullish RSI
  • 4. Above 47650 BankNifty Could March Towards All Time Highs & Beyond Support Shifts Up To 46000 Bullish Reversal from Trend Line Breakout Above 47650 42105 27 Oct 2023 32290 17 June 2022 MACD Above Equilibrium Line RSI Bullish Crossover BankNifty Weekly Chart
  • 5. Below 1 Long To Short Ratio To Lead Further Short Covering By FIIs 0.53 0.54 0.83 0.84 0.82 0.78 0.80 0.73 0.69 0.65 0.62 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.52 0.49 0.52 0.60 0.57 0.48 0.46 0.42 0.32 0.33 0.28 0.94 0.87 0.85 0.88 0.96 1.18 1.90 1.94 1.73 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1-Mar 29-Feb 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb 21-Feb 20-Feb 19-Feb 16-Feb 15-Feb 14-Feb 13-Feb 12-Feb 9-Feb 8-Feb 7-Feb 6-Feb 5-Feb 2-Feb 1-Feb 31-Jan 30-Jan 29-Jan 25-Jan 24-Jan 23-Jan 20-Jan 19-Jan 18-Jan 17-Jan 16-Jan 15-Jan 12-Jan FIIS LONG TO SHORT RATIO IN INDEX FUTURES FII Still Carrying More Shorts than Longs In Index
  • 6. March Month Has Been Good For Nifty In Last 15 Years; Except 2020(Covid Year),March Yielded Positive Returns in Last 6 Years
  • 7. Midcap and Smallcap Indices Caught in to Narrow Consolidation Nifty MidCap 100 Index Weekly Chart Nifty SmallCap 100 Index Weekly Chart MACD Losing Momentum From All Time High Levels MACD Losing Momentum From All Time High Levels Midcap Index Stuck in Narrow Range for Last Four Weeks Smallcap Index Stuck in Narrow Range for Last Four Weeks
  • 8. Negative Divergence in Stocks Above 200 DMA Against Nifty500 Index Expect Broader Markets to Underperform Nifty in the Short-Term Nifty500 Weekly Chart Falling % Of Stocks Above 200 DMA Rising Nifty500 Index
  • 9. Expect Private Sector Banks To Outperform Nifty From Here At Long Term Support Private Bank Index v/s Nifty Monthly Ratio Chart
  • 10. Nifty Offers Better Risk Reward Against NSE500 At Current Levels Nifty v/s NSE500 Monthly Ratio Chart At All Time Low RSI in Extreme Oversold Zone
  • 11. Expect Bullish Reversals in Commodities Bloomberg Commodity Index Monthly Chart Major Weights : Comex Gold, Brent Crude, Nymex Crude, Natural Gas At Long Term Support
  • 12. World Market Indices Registers All Time High MSCI ACWI Index Monthly Chart MSCI World Index Monthly Chart Life Highs Life Highs
  • 13. India Politics : Elections, Markets and Seasonality For the last five consecutive Loksabha elections, 6 months before the announcement of election results, Nifty has rallied between 10-32% going into the day of election result announcement. We entered those six months period beginning of Nov’23 and Since then Nifty has already gained more than 17% till date. If we were to take optimistic scenario based on the history of Lok Sabha elections, we can expect extension of the gains even from the current levels. Up move of 5% from the current levels will take Nifty towards 23500 odd levels. Every period had its own contextual shades but broadly for 25 years, last 5 LS elections and looking at the current technical setup of Indian benchmark indices, we can not rule out the possibility of healthy returns in the Nifty from here.
  • 14. Impact Of War On Indian Markets From the recent war which we saw in Oct 2023, Nifty has risen 17% till now and if we were to take conservative 1 year post war return of 21.6% seen after Russia-Ukraine War, Target levels for Nifty comes at 23200 odd levels.
  • 15. NSE Auto : Amazing rally and no signs of any tiredness at the highs. NSE Consumer Durables : Decisive upside breakout of the crucial hurdle. ➢ Sharp rally. No sign of any reversal yet at the highs. ➢ Formation of higher tops and bottoms. ➢ Bullish Trendline is offering strong supports so far. ➢ Continuously tagging Upper BB band ➢ Stocks with Positive Bias: M&M, BAJA AUTO. MARUTI. NSE AUTO Weekly Chart ➢ Decisive upside breakout of overhead resistance. ➢ Larger degree higher tops and bottoms formation. ➢ Stocks with Positive Bias: VGUARD. Dixon, BLUESTARCO, Havells and Titan. NSE Consumer Durables Weekly Chart
  • 16. NSE Metal : Placed at the edge of moving above the consolidation. NSE Oil & Gas : Sharp up trended movement. Formation of bullish pattern. ➢ Consistent upmove as per higher tops and higher bottoms. No sign of any reversal yet at the highs. ➢ Presence of strong support of weekly 10 EMA. ➢ Formation of long lower shadows in weekly candle. Signaling emergence of buying at lows. ➢ Bullish weekly RSI indication. ➢ Stocks with Positive Bias: Tata Steel, SAIL, Jindal Steel and JSW Steel. NSE Metal Weekly Chart ➢ Sharp trended upmove without showing any major downward corrections in the last few months ➢ Formation of bullish higher highs and lows as per weekly chart. ➢ Last two week’s consolidation seems to have ended with bullish candlestick formation on the weekly chart. ➢ The sector is ready to continue further upside. ➢ Stocks with Positive Bias: Reliance Industries, GAIL, Oil India and ONGC. NSE Oil & Gas Weekly Chart
  • 17. Global Market Update : FTSE and NASDAQ ➢ Breakout has been witnessed some time back. ➢ Volatile throwback fall has ended. ➢ Bullish momentum would pickup in coming days. ➢ Stochastic shows positive sign. ➢ Registered a new record high after two plus years. ➢ Trading at uncharted territory. ➢ Uptrend would continue. ➢ MACD placed with bullish signal.
  • 18. Technical Observations ➢ In the month of February, Nifty rose 1.80% and registered a fresh all time high of 22297. BankNifty underperformed Nifty by limiting its gain to 0.27%. Nifty Midcap 100 and Small cap 100 Indices also underperformed the Nifty by falling 0.48% and 0.31% respectively. Indices like PSU Bank, Oil & Gas, CPSE, Realty, Auto and Pharma gained the most from sectoral indices, while Media, Private banks and FMCG indices underperformed the Nifty by closing in red. ➢ In the starting of the current month, Nifty registered a fresh all time high of 22419. ➢ During the last week, Nifty found support on the upward sloping trend line adjoining the swing lows of 24th Jan 2024 and 14th Feb 2024. After finding support, Nifty has broken out from the ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart, which indicates continuation of an uptrend. ➢ Nifty has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the monthly charts, which indicates bullish structure on medium term time frame. ➢ Indicators and oscillators like MACD and RSI have turned bullish on the weekly and monthly charts. ➢ Short term resistance for Nifty is seen at 22600-22700. However ascending triangle pattern projects the upside target of 23100 in the short term. Supports for the Nifty is seen at 22200, while positional support remains at 21800.
  • 19. Technical Observations ➢ Percentage of stocks above 200 DMA in NSE500 index have been falling despite the rise in the Nifty500 Index. This shows the negative divergence and sign some caution in the Midcap and Smallcap space. Traders needs to be vigilant and selective while trading in Midcap and Smallcap space. We can expect broader markets to underperform the Nifty. ➢ FIIs still carrying more shorts than longs in index futures, which could ignite further short covering in the index. ➢ Seasonality chart of last 15 years indicates that March has been good month for Nifty in terms of monthly returns. ➢ Monthly ratio chart of Nifty vs Nifty500 has reached to an all time low levels, which indicates the good chances of mean reversion to happen. Expect Nifty to outperform broader markets from here. ➢ Monthly ratio chart of private sector bank vs Nifty has reached long term support of horizontal trend line and we expect private banks to outperform the Nifty from here. ➢ Bloomberg commodity index has reached long term support of horizontal trend line, which indicates good chances of Gold, Crude and Natural Gas to rise from current levels. ➢ Loksabha election trends in last 25 years, suggests possibility of Nifty doing very well till election results coming in May 2024. ➢ Geopolitical issues especially wars turned out to be an investment opportunity historically in India and Indian markets seems to have absorbed the supply which came in October and already yielded 17% since then. Going by that data, even conservative estimates could take Nifty towards 23100-23200 levels ➢ World Market indices like MSCI World and ACWI have registered fresh all time highs which augers well for Indian markets ➢ Considering the evidences discussed above, we believe that bullish trend of the Indian market will continue and dips should be utilized to go long. Nifty could extend its uptrend towards next resistances of 22600-22700 followed by 23000- 23100. Supports for the Nifty are seen at 22200 and 21800.
  • 20. Actionable: ❑ Trading Strategy: Utilize Dips to Accumulate Longs. Action Points Nifty (CMP 22378.40 ) Bank Nifty (CMP 47297.50) Short Term Trend Bullish Bullish Medium Term Trend Bullish Bullish Short Term Resistance 22600-22700 47650 Short Term Support 22200 46000 Positional Resistance 23100-23200 50000 Positional Support 21800 45660
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