An overview of Montana demographics as presented by Dr. Douglas Young at Lifelong Learning: New Opportunities for Aging Communities on Oct. 4, 2018 in Bozeman, Montana.

1. Montana’s Aging Population
Douglas J Young
Professor Emeritus (Economics)
Montana State University
1
Lifelong Learning: New Opportunities for
Aging Communities
October 4, 2018

2. Prior Work with George
Haynes and Myles Watts
• Blue Cross/Blue Shield
of Montana
• Montana Agricultural
Experiment Station
• Montana Area Agencies
on Aging Association
• Montana Association of
Counties
• Montana Bankers
Association
• Montana Chamber
Foundation
• Montana State
University
• Montana State
University Extension
• NorthWestern Energy
• PPL Montana
• University of Montana
• Montana Council on
Economic Education
(MCEE)
• ONE MONTANA:
Bridging the Rural-Urban Divide
2

3. Outline
1. Montana is Rapidly Aging
2. Aging varies Widely Across the State
3. Migration Plays a Big Role
4. Opportunities and Challenges

4. 1. Montana’s Population
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Age 65+
MT CEIC

5. Montana’s Population (%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Age 65+ Age 18-24

6. 1. Montana is Rapidly Aging
• The Population Age 65+ is
• Growing in Both Absolute terms and as a
Percentage of the Total Population.
• The Population Age18-24
• Has been declining and is not expected to
grow as a Percentage of the Total
Population
• The “Market” for Life Long Learning is
Growing while that for Traditional Age
Learning is Stagnant

7. 2. County Variation - 2010

8. 2. County Variation - 2030

9. 3. Migration
Why People Move:
Economic: Job Opportunities
Retirement: (Grand-) Kids
Other Reasons: Life-Style, Schools
9

10. Measuring Migration
Net Migration =
# of People Who Move Into Montana
minus
# of People Who Move Out of Montana

11. -2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Persons
Age in 2010
Net Migration
2000 to 2010
11
Sources: U.S. Census and CDC

13. -2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Persons
Age in 2010
Net Migration
Western/Southern Montana 2000 to 2010
13Sources: U.S. Census and CDC

14. -500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Persons
Age in 2010
Net Migration
Yellowstone County 2000 to 2010
14Sources: U.S. Census and CDC

15. -2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Persons
Age in 2010
Net Migration
Eastern/Northern Montana 2000 to 2010
15
Sources: U.S. Census and CDC

16. The “Big Seven” Counties in 2030

17. 4. Opportunities and
Challenges
•The Target Population for Life Long
Learning will grow by 40% - more than
100,000 persons – between 2010 and 2030.
•They are Spread across the 4th Largest State
• Sixty Percent of the Target Population will
Reside in Seven Counties: Cascade,
Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis and Clark,
Missoula, Ravalli, Yellowstone

18. Questions?