Mobile handset population data was collected from Finnish mobile operators from 2005-2011. Nokia dominated the handset market with an 81% share in 2011, though its share decreased 5% from 2010. The share of smartphones increased significantly from 6% in 2005 to 33% in 2011. Feature diffusion was forecasted to be relatively slow, with WCDMA predicted to reach 80% penetration in 3 years and WLAN in 4 years.

1. Mobile Handset Population in
Finland 2005-2011
MoMIE project report
May 15th, 2012
Network Economics Antti Riikonen
Research Group Timo Smura

2. MoMIE project: Comprehensive view
on mobile service usage
MoMIE RESEARCH:
Handset population
data collection • Surveys on handset panel
• Handset monitoring
• Mobile operator
accounting systems
• IP traffic measurements
• Web analytics
Source: Modified from Kivi, 2009
Slide 2

3. Data collection: handset population
• Mobile operators’ accounting systems
– Data from end of Q3, annually 2005–2011
– Feature information: GfK and public sources
• Represents 80-99% of devices in use in Finnish mobile
networks (~98% in 2011)
– Data from DNA, Elisa, and TeliaSonera
– Includes devices observed at operators’ network
– Some error due to
• No full data on Apple iPhone from 2005-2010 >> available in 2011
• Mobile subscriber churn during observation period
• Differences in operator-specific data sets
• Unidentified devices and missing feature-data of handset models
Slide 3

4. Growth in data terminals continues
10
Millions
2%
2%
8 2% 19 % * Other device types (e.g. desktop
13 % phones) excluded from the rest
1% 8% Other/Unknown * of the analysis. Unknown
Number of devices
2% 5% devices included in estimation
6 8% of error margins.
2% 2% Data terminal **
1% 1%
Handset ** USB modems, data cards,
4 tablets, embedded data
91 % 85 % 79 % modules
94 %
96 %
97 % 91 %
2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
• Size of the active device population depends on definition
– Relative shares of handsets and data terminals based on MoMIE measurements
– Here, active device population assumed to equal the total number of subscriptions in
Finland, as reported by the operators in public
• USB modems major data terminal category
– large scale introduction during fall 2007
Slide 4

5. Fragmentation of handset population
Cumulative share of top handsets
100 % • Early signs of slowdown
in fragmentation visible
80 % – Amount of available models
Cumulative share of all handsets
has remained rather stable
since 2008
2005
60 %
2006
2007 • Cumulative share of
40 % 2008 – Top 1 model
2009 • 14% (2005)
2010 • 3% (2011)
20 %
2011 – Top 10 models
• 50% (2005)
0% • 24% (2011)
1 10 100
Top handset models (log)
Slide 5

6. Top handset models in use in Finland
All mobile handsets: Smartphones:
Share of all Change Packet Share of all Change
Rank Model name Rank Model name
handsets from 2010 data* handsets from 2010
1 Nokia 2760 2,8% Yes (2G) 1 (2) Nokia 5230 2,7%
2 Nokia 5230 2,7% Yes (3G) 2 (9) Nokia C5-00 2,1%
3 Nokia 2730 Classic 2,7% Yes (3G) 3 (11) Apple iPhone 4 2,1% -
4 Nokia 3720 Classic 2,6% Yes (2G) 4 (15) Nokia E7-00 1,3%
5 Nokia 7230 2,6% Yes (3G) 5 (19) Nokia E52 1,2%
6 Nokia 3120 Classic 2,4% Yes (3G) 6 (21) Nokia C7-00 1,2%
7 Nokia 3710 Fold 2,3% Yes (3G) 7 (22) Nokia N8-00 1,2%
8 Nokia 1100 2,2% No 8 (25) Apple iPhone 3GS 1,0% -
9 Nokia C5-00 2,1% Yes (2G) 9 (26) Nokia C6-00 0,9%
10 Nokia 2330 Classic 2,1% Yes (2G) 10 (27) Nokia E75 0,9%
11 Apple iPhone 4 2,1% - ** Yes (3G)
12 Nokia C2-01 2,0% Yes (3G)
13 Nokia 2720 Fold 2,0% Yes (2G)
14 Samsung GT-S5230 1,3% Yes (2G)
15 Nokia E7-00 1,3% Yes (3G)
* All 2G devices have GPRS/EDGE capability,
all 3G devices have GPRS/EDGE/WCDM A capability
** No data on Apple iPhone in 2010
Slide 6

7. Nokia dominates handset population
Mobile handsets by manufacturer 2005-2011
1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% Others • Others
5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0%
3% Apple * – HTC 1%
2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%
0%
BenQ/Siemens – ZTE 1%
2%
2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% Sony/Ericsson
10%
Samsung
• Samsung
Nokia
– Share growing
– > 2/3 of Samsung
devices with proprietary
Samsung OS
90% 88% 89% 88% 89% 86%
81%
• Nokia
– Decrease of 5% points
– Detailed analysis next
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
* No full data on Apple 2007-2010
No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified manufacturers neglected from the analysis
Slide 7

8. Mobile handsets by operating system
10% 11% 10% 12% 11% 13%
19% Others
4% 0% 1% Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
2%
0%
9%
8%
14%
0%
6% Others S60 5. ed.
Symbian
Others S60 3.ed
• Others 2011:
3% 7% 17% OthersSymbian^3 / Anna/Belle
4% Symbian
3% 5% 18%
7% Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian OS 5. ed.
S60
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle – Mobile phones 10%
2% 1% 3% Symbian S60 5. ed.
1% OthersSymbian S60 3.ed
32%
0%
10% 0% 2%
Symbian S60 5. S80 (+90,UIQ)
ed.
13% Symbian OS 3.ed
Symbian S60 40, 6. ed.
Symbian^3 / Series
Symbian S60Anna/Belle
OthersNokia 3.ed
– Smartphones 9%
8%
Symbian OS (+90,UIQ)
Symbian S80
Symbian S60Anna/Belle5. ed.
1% Nokia 5. ed.
Symbian^3 / Series 40,
OS
34% 21% 7% Others S80 (+90,UIQ)
Symbian
14% S60 3.ed
Nokia (+90,UIQ)
5. ed. 6.
Symbian S80Series 40, 3. ed.
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
31%
23%
14% Nokia Series ed. 5. ed.
Symbian OS 3.ed 40,
Nokia Series 40, 6. 40
S60
Symbian S60 40,ed. ed.
5.
Nokia Series 40, 5.
Nokia Series ed. 3. ed.
S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series OS 5.
Symbian OS 40,
• Total shares 2011:
Symbian S60 40,
3.ed
12%
Nokia Nokia Series ed. 3. ed.
Symbian S80Series 40
Nokia 40, 6.
Series (+90,UIQ)
3. – Symbian 26%
23% Symbian OS 40
Nokia Series
20% Nokia OS 5. ed.
40,
Nokia Series 40 6.
15% 8%
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia OS 3. ed.
Nokia OS 40, 5.
Series
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
– Series 40 45%
52% 40
9% Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
5%
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
39% Nokia OS 40
6% Series
30% Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
23% Nokia OS
18% Nokia Series 40
13% 10% Nokia OS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified operating systems neglected from the analysis
Slide 8

9. Share of smartphones increasing
• Smartphone definition: 40%
Shares of smarpthone operating systems
– Possibility to install native
applications
Others
– e.g. Symbian, iOS, Android, 3%
Windows Phone, Maemo, iOS
30%
MeeGo 5% Android
Share out of all handsets
1%
• Share of smartphones 4% Symbian^3, Anna, Belle
from 6% (’05) to 33% (’11) 20%
Symbian 1.-5. ed.
– Smartphone share in sales
~56% in September 2011
26%
22% 22%
10% 20%
19%
13%
Note:
- No data on iOS from 2007-2010 6%
- Nokia Windows Phone not yet 0%
available in Finland during 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified operating systems neglected from the analysis
Slide 9

10. Nokia Series 40 and Symbian diffusion:
Substitution between OS generations
40% Nokia Series 40 diffusion
Share of all handsets 35%
30%
25% Series 40, 1.-2. ed.
20% Series 40, 3. ed.
15% Series 40, 5. ed.
10% Series 40, 6. ed.
5%
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
20% Symbian diffusion
Share of all handsets
15%
S80 (+90,UIQ)
S60 1.-2. ed.
10% S60 3.ed
S60 5. ed.
5% ^3 / Anna / Belle
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Slide 10

11. Diffusion of radio interfaces stable
Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (1)
100% • Many features close
to saturation
80%
– Low-end
population limits
penetration
60% – Saturation level
for FM radio?
40%
• Some features
20% spreading fast
– Inclusion to mid-
range?
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
N = 4-6.5 Millions Upper and lower error margins presented with
Slide 11

12. Display technologies and input
methods
Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (2)
100%
• Diffusion of TFT
slowed down
80%
– Competition between
high-end TFT and
60%
AMOLED displays
40% • Touch screen diffusing
fast
– One of the fastest
20%
growing features ever
– Also in comparison to
0% QWERTY
B/W CSTN TFT AMOLED / Other 3x4 KEY QWERTY TOUCH
(MSTN) SUPER DISP.
AMOLED TYPE
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3x4 KEY = numeric keypad
QWERTY = QWERTY keyboard
N = 4-6.5 Millions TOUCH = Touch screen
Slide 12

13. Forecasting feature diffusion: Logic
Combination of handset sales and installed base data
• Mobile handset sales
data from GfK
– Used to calculate the
share of features in sales
• Unit replacement
parameters calculated
using sales and installed
base data
• Forecast made for share
of features in future sales
• Model calculates the
share of features in base
Slide 13

14. Forecasting feature diffusion: First results
• Forecasts of feature
shares in sales based
on expert opinion
• Features diffuse in
bundles
– Certain features found
together in feature
phones, other features
in smartphones
• Diffusion of features
relatively slow
– WCDMA will reach
80% penetration in
three years, WLAN in
four
Slide 14

15. Conclusions
• Typical handset manufactured by Nokia (81%)
– Other manufacturers begun to gain market share
• Smartphones (33%) and advanced features spread fast
– With increasing share of handsets possible to consume
advanced services & content
– Touch screen diffusing fast, substituting numeric keypad
• Forecasts predict stable growth of key features
Slide 15

16. Further information
• Contact:
– Antti Riikonen, researcher
– Timo Smura, project manager
– firstname.lastname (at) aalto.fi
• MoMIE project:
– Modeling of Mobile Internet Ecosystem
– http://momie.comnet.aalto.fi/
Slide 16