Lag plot of studentized residuals




                                                      3
                        2




                                             1

                                                               12
studentized_residuals

                        1




                                  7                         16              10
                                                                                 15   11
                                                                            14
                                              5                     27
                                                                                               28
                                            23
                        0




                                                            18
                                                             20     26
                                                          21          13
                                                                17
                                                                19
                                                               2522
                                                                        4
                        -1




                                                                                 9
                                                                                 6         2
                                                          24
                        -2




                                                  8

                             -4       -2                            0                      2        4

                                                                    lag 1
Linear regression model for wins - MLB 2000-2012
                       90
Team Wins Per Season




                       80




                       70




                            65     70                       75                        80   85
                                   16.571 + 429.75 wOBA - 19.184 xFIP + 0.01007 UZR
Normal QQ plot of studentized residuals




         2




         1
sample




         0




         -1




         -2



              -2       -1             0             1        2
                                  theoretical
Histogram of studentized residuals
        4




        3
count




        2




        1




        0

            -2    -1           0             1        2   3
                         studentized residuals
2002 MLB Season
                     0.6




                     0.5
On-Base Percentage




                                                                                        oakland
                     0.4                                                                   FALSE
                                                                                           TRUE




                     0.3




                     0.2

                           0.0e+00   5.0e+06    1.0e+07             1.5e+07   2.0e+07
                                                 Salary (Dollars)
Payroll




                        0e+00
                                5e+07
                                                                 1e+08
             Angels

              Astros

            Athletics

           Blue Jays

             Braves

            Brewers

           Cardinals

               Cubs

          Devil Rays

       Diamondbacks

            Dodgers

              Expos

              Giants

             Indians

           Mariners




Team
             Marlins

               Mets

             Orioles
                                                                         Payroll 2002 MLB Season




             Padres

             Phillies

             Pirates

            Rangers

            Red Sox

               Reds

            Rockies

             Royals

              Tigers

              Twins

          White Sox

           Yankees
                                                       oakland


                                        TRUE
                                               FALSE
The relative importance of fielding, hitting, and pitching

                              4




                              3
wins per standard deviation




                              2




                              1




                              0

                                     UZR                    wOBA                    xFIP
Run-Sequence Plot of Studentized Residuals




                        2
Studentized Residuals




                        1




                        0




                        -1




                        -2



                             0      10                               20       30
                                                   index
Run-Sequence Plot of Studentized Residuals




                        2
Studentized Residuals




                        1




                        0




                        -1




                        -2



                             0      10                               20       30
                                                   index
Player Fielding and Hitting Effectiveness MLB 2010 Season




       0.4




                                                                         salary
       0.3                                                                   3e+07
wOBA




                                                                             2e+07

                                                                             1e+07




       0.2




                 -25              0                25
                                      UZR.150
2002: Oakland's Moneyball Season


       100




        90




                                                                           oakland
Wins




        80                                                                    FALSE
                                                                              TRUE



        70




        60




             5.00e+07           7.50e+07             1.00e+08   1.25e+08
                                      Payroll
MLB 2010 Season (Most MLB Players are Fungible)
                         8




                         6
Wins Above Replacement




                         4




                         2




                         0




                             1e+06                                            1e+07
                                                          Salary

Mlb graphs slide deck

  • 1.
    Lag plot ofstudentized residuals 3 2 1 12 studentized_residuals 1 7 16 10 15 11 14 5 27 28 23 0 18 20 26 21 13 17 19 2522 4 -1 9 6 2 24 -2 8 -4 -2 0 2 4 lag 1
  • 2.
    Linear regression modelfor wins - MLB 2000-2012 90 Team Wins Per Season 80 70 65 70 75 80 85 16.571 + 429.75 wOBA - 19.184 xFIP + 0.01007 UZR
  • 3.
    Normal QQ plotof studentized residuals 2 1 sample 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 theoretical
  • 4.
    Histogram of studentizedresiduals 4 3 count 2 1 0 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 studentized residuals
  • 5.
    2002 MLB Season 0.6 0.5 On-Base Percentage oakland 0.4 FALSE TRUE 0.3 0.2 0.0e+00 5.0e+06 1.0e+07 1.5e+07 2.0e+07 Salary (Dollars)
  • 6.
    Payroll 0e+00 5e+07 1e+08 Angels Astros Athletics Blue Jays Braves Brewers Cardinals Cubs Devil Rays Diamondbacks Dodgers Expos Giants Indians Mariners Team Marlins Mets Orioles Payroll 2002 MLB Season Padres Phillies Pirates Rangers Red Sox Reds Rockies Royals Tigers Twins White Sox Yankees oakland TRUE FALSE
  • 7.
    The relative importanceof fielding, hitting, and pitching 4 3 wins per standard deviation 2 1 0 UZR wOBA xFIP
  • 8.
    Run-Sequence Plot ofStudentized Residuals 2 Studentized Residuals 1 0 -1 -2 0 10 20 30 index
  • 9.
    Run-Sequence Plot ofStudentized Residuals 2 Studentized Residuals 1 0 -1 -2 0 10 20 30 index
  • 10.
    Player Fielding andHitting Effectiveness MLB 2010 Season 0.4 salary 0.3 3e+07 wOBA 2e+07 1e+07 0.2 -25 0 25 UZR.150
  • 11.
    2002: Oakland's MoneyballSeason 100 90 oakland Wins 80 FALSE TRUE 70 60 5.00e+07 7.50e+07 1.00e+08 1.25e+08 Payroll
  • 12.
    MLB 2010 Season(Most MLB Players are Fungible) 8 6 Wins Above Replacement 4 2 0 1e+06 1e+07 Salary