The document provides an economic and market outlook from LPL Financial Research for the first half of 2011 and beyond. It notes that the first half saw patches of economic ups and downs and expects continued modest growth for the full year. Key themes discussed include the transition from stimulus to more normal monetary and fiscal policy, signs of reflation in rising commodity prices and bond yields and a weaker dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties from events in the Middle East and Japan.
- The document analyzes the recent stock market decline and concludes it was relatively minor compared to past downturns.
- U.S. companies are currently in better financial shape than during previous downturns and several economic indicators do not currently signal a recession.
- While stocks are volatile in the short-term, they have consistently outperformed other asset classes over long periods and diversification helps reduce risk.
The Determinants of Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds’ (JGBs) Low Nominal Y...pkconference
1) The document analyzes the determinants of low nominal yields on long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs), despite Japan's high government debt levels.
2) It argues that Japan's monetary sovereignty and ability to issue debt in yen allows it to always service yen-denominated debt. Low short-term interest rates, set by the Bank of Japan, are the main driver of low long-term JGB yields.
3) Persistent low inflation and deflationary pressures, as well as sluggish economic growth, have also contributed to keeping JGB nominal yields low, while high public debt ratios have not pushed yields up as conventional theories predict.
The document discusses how the Federal Reserve responded to financial crises, including after 9/11 and the 2008 mortgage crisis. It describes actions the Fed took to increase liquidity and prevent panic, such as allowing banks to borrow more and purchasing government securities. This massive response after 9/11 helped prevent a financial panic. During the 2008 crisis, the Fed announced new programs to purchase corporate debt and extend loans to money market funds under pressure. These actions demonstrated the Federal Reserve's role as lender of last resort during times of financial distress.
The document summarizes that:
1) The recent summer stock market decline was relatively small compared to past corrections.
2) The US economy and company fundamentals do not indicate an impending recession.
3) Stock valuations remain reasonable given long-term market trends of volatility followed by growth.
The document discusses monetary policy tools and their effects. It begins by outlining the Federal Reserve's main tools: open market operations, the reserve requirement, and the discount rate. It then explains how open market operations work to expand or contract the money supply by purchasing or selling bonds. The document also discusses quantitative easing and how it was used during the Great Recession. It analyzes the short-run effects of expansionary and contractionary monetary policy on real GDP, unemployment, and inflation. Finally, it notes limitations to monetary policy, including its lack of long-run effects as prices adjust and how expectations and behavior can reduce its impact.
The document summarizes a presentation given at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on November 20, 2009. The presentation covered global and domestic economic conditions, the real estate crisis, financial markets, monetary policy challenges, a monetary policy recommendation, and a draft FOMC policy directive. The presentation considered three potential economic recovery scenarios - a rapid "V-shaped" recovery, a slow "L-shaped" recovery, or a double-dip "W-shaped" recovery. The recommendation was to maintain the target federal funds rate at 0-0.25% at the next FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve System uses three main tools of monetary policy: open market operations, reserve requirements, and the discount rate. Open market operations, through which the Fed buys and sells government bonds, are the most important tool as they allow the Fed to quickly adjust bank reserves. By expanding or contracting bank reserves through open market operations, the Fed can lower or raise interest rates, stimulating or slowing investment and economic growth. The goal of monetary policy is to achieve full employment and price stability.
- The document analyzes the recent stock market decline and concludes it was relatively minor compared to past downturns.
- U.S. companies are currently in better financial shape than during previous downturns and several economic indicators do not currently signal a recession.
- While stocks are volatile in the short-term, they have consistently outperformed other asset classes over long periods and diversification helps reduce risk.
The Determinants of Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds’ (JGBs) Low Nominal Y...pkconference
1) The document analyzes the determinants of low nominal yields on long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs), despite Japan's high government debt levels.
2) It argues that Japan's monetary sovereignty and ability to issue debt in yen allows it to always service yen-denominated debt. Low short-term interest rates, set by the Bank of Japan, are the main driver of low long-term JGB yields.
3) Persistent low inflation and deflationary pressures, as well as sluggish economic growth, have also contributed to keeping JGB nominal yields low, while high public debt ratios have not pushed yields up as conventional theories predict.
The document discusses how the Federal Reserve responded to financial crises, including after 9/11 and the 2008 mortgage crisis. It describes actions the Fed took to increase liquidity and prevent panic, such as allowing banks to borrow more and purchasing government securities. This massive response after 9/11 helped prevent a financial panic. During the 2008 crisis, the Fed announced new programs to purchase corporate debt and extend loans to money market funds under pressure. These actions demonstrated the Federal Reserve's role as lender of last resort during times of financial distress.
The document summarizes that:
1) The recent summer stock market decline was relatively small compared to past corrections.
2) The US economy and company fundamentals do not indicate an impending recession.
3) Stock valuations remain reasonable given long-term market trends of volatility followed by growth.
The document discusses monetary policy tools and their effects. It begins by outlining the Federal Reserve's main tools: open market operations, the reserve requirement, and the discount rate. It then explains how open market operations work to expand or contract the money supply by purchasing or selling bonds. The document also discusses quantitative easing and how it was used during the Great Recession. It analyzes the short-run effects of expansionary and contractionary monetary policy on real GDP, unemployment, and inflation. Finally, it notes limitations to monetary policy, including its lack of long-run effects as prices adjust and how expectations and behavior can reduce its impact.
The document summarizes a presentation given at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on November 20, 2009. The presentation covered global and domestic economic conditions, the real estate crisis, financial markets, monetary policy challenges, a monetary policy recommendation, and a draft FOMC policy directive. The presentation considered three potential economic recovery scenarios - a rapid "V-shaped" recovery, a slow "L-shaped" recovery, or a double-dip "W-shaped" recovery. The recommendation was to maintain the target federal funds rate at 0-0.25% at the next FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve System uses three main tools of monetary policy: open market operations, reserve requirements, and the discount rate. Open market operations, through which the Fed buys and sells government bonds, are the most important tool as they allow the Fed to quickly adjust bank reserves. By expanding or contracting bank reserves through open market operations, the Fed can lower or raise interest rates, stimulating or slowing investment and economic growth. The goal of monetary policy is to achieve full employment and price stability.
The document provides an economic summary for Q2 2010. Key points include:
- The economic recovery continued but slowed significantly, with a series of "W-patterns" expected due to ongoing risks.
- Consumer confidence and small business sentiment increased modestly while unemployment remained high.
- Volatility returned to global markets as the Euro crisis threatened the EU. The Euro declined against the dollar while other currencies like the GBP fluctuated.
- Mortgage rates hit record lows but housing indicators like new home sales remained weak, though a tax credit was extended.
Ben Bernanke faced a novel housing crisis as Federal Reserve Chairman in 2007-2008. The document discusses the Federal Reserve's tools for implementing monetary policy through open market operations and adjusting interest rates. It also explains how monetary policy affects investment, output, and international trade by changing interest rates and currency exchange rates.
1) The document summarizes the outlooks of various experts on the Asian G3 bond markets in the coming year, with outlooks ranging from -1 (most negative) to 2 (most positive).
2) While some experts are positive due to attractive valuations and supportive economic growth, others express concerns about rising leverage, high supply, tightening conditions, and volatility due to tapering of US QE.
3) Most experts have neutral or cautious outlooks, expecting continued volatility but also opportunities for selective investors. Concerns include slowing growth, tighter global financial conditions, and uncertainty around US monetary policy.
This document discusses investment and financial markets. It defines key terms related to investment such as accelerator theory, nominal and real interest rates, and Q-theory of investment. It also describes the role of financial intermediaries in facilitating investment by channeling funds from savers to investors, and how innovations like securitization have created new risks when subprime mortgages were securitized and the housing market declined.
JPM Prime Brokerage Global Hedge Fund Trends May 2013.pdfBrian Shapiro
- Hedge funds posted positive returns in April as equity markets increased. Global macro and relative value strategies performed strongest.
- Gross leverage across hedge funds rose slightly from 1.88 to 1.89 as risk appetite increased. Net exposure and leverage also increased for equity funds.
- Sector exposures shifted as long positions grew in Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, and Technology, while shorting declined in Non-sector ETFs and Basic Materials.
The document discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in regulating the money supply. It explains that the Federal Reserve was created to control inflation and recession by increasing or decreasing the money supply through monetary policy. The Federal Reserve uses tools like changing the discount rate and reserve requirements to encourage or discourage bank lending, which impacts the money supply and the overall economy. The goal is to maintain stable prices, full employment, and economic growth.
The Federal Reserve controls the money supply through monetary policy to maintain stable prices, full employment, and economic growth. It can increase the money supply by lowering interest rates and reserve requirements for banks, encouraging more lending. Conversely, it can decrease the money supply by raising interest rates and reserve requirements, discouraging lending. The Federal Reserve was created to regulate the money supply and prevent inflation and recession.
This presentation discusses interest rate policy in the US. It covers three main topics: the federal funds rate, the discount rate, and the zero interest rate policy. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend balances held at Federal Reserve to other banks overnight. The discount rate is the interest charged to banks borrowing from the Federal Reserve's discount window. The zero interest rate policy means setting rates near zero to encourage growth when inflation is low and unemployment is high. Regular adjustments are made to short-term rates to manage economic growth and inflation.
The money supply and inflation ppt @ bec domsBabasab Patil
1. China is experiencing high inflation which can be explained by increases in the money supply.
2. The central bank, called the Federal Reserve, controls the money supply through open market operations and by adjusting reserve requirements and interest rates.
3. When the money supply increases, either the price level rises or output increases as shown by the Quantity Theory of Money equation.
The US economy grew at a decreasing rate in the third quarter of 2010, with GDP growth estimated to fall between 1.5-1.7% and average GDP growth for the year downgraded to 2.5-2.7%. While businesses have healthy balance sheets and cash reserves, uncertainty around taxes, regulations, and health care have discouraged hiring and investment. The Federal Reserve is expected to pursue further quantitative easing to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. However, the main issues remain lack of business investment due to policy uncertainty and weakness in the housing market, with the unemployment rate remaining high at 9.7%. Upcoming midterm elections could improve optimism if they result in a Republican-controlled House and split Senate.
The document summarizes the Reserve Bank of India's mid-year monetary policy review for 2011-12. It discusses the state of the global and domestic economies, outlook and projections, policy stance, and monetary measures. Key points include slowing growth in advanced economies and high inflation globally and domestically. The RBI revised down India's GDP growth projection to 7.6% while projecting inflation to ease to 7% by March 2012. The RBI raised its policy repo rate by 25 basis points while keeping an anti-inflationary stance. The review also covered interest rate policy, financial markets, stability, and credit delivery measures.
Equity Market - What to expect in August 2021?Vinod Prajapati
- The equity markets in India performed well in July 2021, with mid and small-cap stocks outperforming. Realty and metals sectors saw the highest gains, while auto and energy declined.
- Fund managers expect some market consolidation in the near term due to high valuations but remain positive for the long term given economic recovery. Select sectors like financials, IT, and consumption are favored.
- A mix of large, mid, and small-cap funds is recommended to benefit from opportunities across market caps.
The document summarizes monetary policy in India. It discusses how the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) uses various monetary policy tools like open market operations, cash reserve ratio, statutory liquidity ratio, bank rate, repo rate, and reverse repo rate to control money supply and maintain price stability. It notes that RBI recently cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% due to falling inflation. The rate cut led to gains in the stock market and currency. Further cuts are expected pending the government's budget and stance on fiscal consolidation.
This document provides an overview of various macroeconomic indicators that can impact stock prices, including inflation rates, interest rates, purchasing managers' indexes, index of industrial production, foreign investment, currency rates, and more. It discusses how changes in these economic factors can affect businesses and consumer behavior, influencing stock market performance. Sample data is presented for several Indian macroeconomic indicators from 2012 to 2014, such as declining CPI and WPI inflation, interest rates, and purchasing manager index readings for services and manufacturing.
The document discusses the role and tools of monetary policy in the United States. It describes how Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke served as chairs of the Federal Reserve and how the Fed aims to manage monetary policy to achieve full employment and price stability. It outlines the Fed's main tools of monetary policy, including open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements, and how these tools can be used to either ease or tighten the money supply.
As we expected, markets in 2014 have been less
influenced by politics and policymakers than in 2013
and more dependent upon growth. Growth is an
essential characteristic of all living things, and in
2014, growth is vital to our outlook for the economy
and markets. Our notes from the field contain
key observations and reaffirm our forecasts. Read the entire report.
February 2012 "State of the Debt Capital Markets"Brian Schofield
The document summarizes recent economic trends in the United States. It notes that while uncertainties remain regarding fiscal policy and the European debt crisis, the Federal Reserve has provided stability by communicating its plans to keep interest rates low until 2014. The U.S. economy showed signs of strength in 2011, with improving consumer spending and sentiment as well as job growth. Barring major setbacks, the outlook for continued growth in the U.S. economy remains positive in 2012.
The document discusses the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) conduct of monetary policy. It outlines the BSP's objectives of maintaining price stability and inflation targeting framework. The BSP uses various monetary policy tools like open market operations, reserve requirements, and rediscounting to influence money supply and inflation. Recent inflation trends have remained within target. Large capital inflows from advanced economies pose challenges to managing inflation risks.
This document is a recipe for Universitarios that repeats the word "Universitarios" multiple times without providing any other context or instructions. It does not contain enough information to summarize in 3 sentences or less.
J6A-AA MSW Perspectives, Attitudes, and Belifs about HIV/AIDS in High-Crime, ...kparker6
The document summarizes a qualitative research study that explored views and behaviors related to HIV/AIDS among African American men in a high-risk area. The study identified four major themes: 1) challenging living conditions in the area related to drugs, violence and crime, 2) limited knowledge and awareness of HIV/AIDS, 3) beliefs promoting risky sexual behaviors, and 4) acceptance of promiscuity and infidelity among men. The findings suggest a need for more community-specific interventions addressing gender roles, power dynamics, and basic needs that influence HIV risk in this population.
The document provides an economic summary for Q2 2010. Key points include:
- The economic recovery continued but slowed significantly, with a series of "W-patterns" expected due to ongoing risks.
- Consumer confidence and small business sentiment increased modestly while unemployment remained high.
- Volatility returned to global markets as the Euro crisis threatened the EU. The Euro declined against the dollar while other currencies like the GBP fluctuated.
- Mortgage rates hit record lows but housing indicators like new home sales remained weak, though a tax credit was extended.
Ben Bernanke faced a novel housing crisis as Federal Reserve Chairman in 2007-2008. The document discusses the Federal Reserve's tools for implementing monetary policy through open market operations and adjusting interest rates. It also explains how monetary policy affects investment, output, and international trade by changing interest rates and currency exchange rates.
1) The document summarizes the outlooks of various experts on the Asian G3 bond markets in the coming year, with outlooks ranging from -1 (most negative) to 2 (most positive).
2) While some experts are positive due to attractive valuations and supportive economic growth, others express concerns about rising leverage, high supply, tightening conditions, and volatility due to tapering of US QE.
3) Most experts have neutral or cautious outlooks, expecting continued volatility but also opportunities for selective investors. Concerns include slowing growth, tighter global financial conditions, and uncertainty around US monetary policy.
This document discusses investment and financial markets. It defines key terms related to investment such as accelerator theory, nominal and real interest rates, and Q-theory of investment. It also describes the role of financial intermediaries in facilitating investment by channeling funds from savers to investors, and how innovations like securitization have created new risks when subprime mortgages were securitized and the housing market declined.
JPM Prime Brokerage Global Hedge Fund Trends May 2013.pdfBrian Shapiro
- Hedge funds posted positive returns in April as equity markets increased. Global macro and relative value strategies performed strongest.
- Gross leverage across hedge funds rose slightly from 1.88 to 1.89 as risk appetite increased. Net exposure and leverage also increased for equity funds.
- Sector exposures shifted as long positions grew in Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, and Technology, while shorting declined in Non-sector ETFs and Basic Materials.
The document discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in regulating the money supply. It explains that the Federal Reserve was created to control inflation and recession by increasing or decreasing the money supply through monetary policy. The Federal Reserve uses tools like changing the discount rate and reserve requirements to encourage or discourage bank lending, which impacts the money supply and the overall economy. The goal is to maintain stable prices, full employment, and economic growth.
The Federal Reserve controls the money supply through monetary policy to maintain stable prices, full employment, and economic growth. It can increase the money supply by lowering interest rates and reserve requirements for banks, encouraging more lending. Conversely, it can decrease the money supply by raising interest rates and reserve requirements, discouraging lending. The Federal Reserve was created to regulate the money supply and prevent inflation and recession.
This presentation discusses interest rate policy in the US. It covers three main topics: the federal funds rate, the discount rate, and the zero interest rate policy. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend balances held at Federal Reserve to other banks overnight. The discount rate is the interest charged to banks borrowing from the Federal Reserve's discount window. The zero interest rate policy means setting rates near zero to encourage growth when inflation is low and unemployment is high. Regular adjustments are made to short-term rates to manage economic growth and inflation.
The money supply and inflation ppt @ bec domsBabasab Patil
1. China is experiencing high inflation which can be explained by increases in the money supply.
2. The central bank, called the Federal Reserve, controls the money supply through open market operations and by adjusting reserve requirements and interest rates.
3. When the money supply increases, either the price level rises or output increases as shown by the Quantity Theory of Money equation.
The US economy grew at a decreasing rate in the third quarter of 2010, with GDP growth estimated to fall between 1.5-1.7% and average GDP growth for the year downgraded to 2.5-2.7%. While businesses have healthy balance sheets and cash reserves, uncertainty around taxes, regulations, and health care have discouraged hiring and investment. The Federal Reserve is expected to pursue further quantitative easing to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. However, the main issues remain lack of business investment due to policy uncertainty and weakness in the housing market, with the unemployment rate remaining high at 9.7%. Upcoming midterm elections could improve optimism if they result in a Republican-controlled House and split Senate.
The document summarizes the Reserve Bank of India's mid-year monetary policy review for 2011-12. It discusses the state of the global and domestic economies, outlook and projections, policy stance, and monetary measures. Key points include slowing growth in advanced economies and high inflation globally and domestically. The RBI revised down India's GDP growth projection to 7.6% while projecting inflation to ease to 7% by March 2012. The RBI raised its policy repo rate by 25 basis points while keeping an anti-inflationary stance. The review also covered interest rate policy, financial markets, stability, and credit delivery measures.
Equity Market - What to expect in August 2021?Vinod Prajapati
- The equity markets in India performed well in July 2021, with mid and small-cap stocks outperforming. Realty and metals sectors saw the highest gains, while auto and energy declined.
- Fund managers expect some market consolidation in the near term due to high valuations but remain positive for the long term given economic recovery. Select sectors like financials, IT, and consumption are favored.
- A mix of large, mid, and small-cap funds is recommended to benefit from opportunities across market caps.
The document summarizes monetary policy in India. It discusses how the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) uses various monetary policy tools like open market operations, cash reserve ratio, statutory liquidity ratio, bank rate, repo rate, and reverse repo rate to control money supply and maintain price stability. It notes that RBI recently cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% due to falling inflation. The rate cut led to gains in the stock market and currency. Further cuts are expected pending the government's budget and stance on fiscal consolidation.
This document provides an overview of various macroeconomic indicators that can impact stock prices, including inflation rates, interest rates, purchasing managers' indexes, index of industrial production, foreign investment, currency rates, and more. It discusses how changes in these economic factors can affect businesses and consumer behavior, influencing stock market performance. Sample data is presented for several Indian macroeconomic indicators from 2012 to 2014, such as declining CPI and WPI inflation, interest rates, and purchasing manager index readings for services and manufacturing.
The document discusses the role and tools of monetary policy in the United States. It describes how Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke served as chairs of the Federal Reserve and how the Fed aims to manage monetary policy to achieve full employment and price stability. It outlines the Fed's main tools of monetary policy, including open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements, and how these tools can be used to either ease or tighten the money supply.
As we expected, markets in 2014 have been less
influenced by politics and policymakers than in 2013
and more dependent upon growth. Growth is an
essential characteristic of all living things, and in
2014, growth is vital to our outlook for the economy
and markets. Our notes from the field contain
key observations and reaffirm our forecasts. Read the entire report.
February 2012 "State of the Debt Capital Markets"Brian Schofield
The document summarizes recent economic trends in the United States. It notes that while uncertainties remain regarding fiscal policy and the European debt crisis, the Federal Reserve has provided stability by communicating its plans to keep interest rates low until 2014. The U.S. economy showed signs of strength in 2011, with improving consumer spending and sentiment as well as job growth. Barring major setbacks, the outlook for continued growth in the U.S. economy remains positive in 2012.
The document discusses the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) conduct of monetary policy. It outlines the BSP's objectives of maintaining price stability and inflation targeting framework. The BSP uses various monetary policy tools like open market operations, reserve requirements, and rediscounting to influence money supply and inflation. Recent inflation trends have remained within target. Large capital inflows from advanced economies pose challenges to managing inflation risks.
This document is a recipe for Universitarios that repeats the word "Universitarios" multiple times without providing any other context or instructions. It does not contain enough information to summarize in 3 sentences or less.
J6A-AA MSW Perspectives, Attitudes, and Belifs about HIV/AIDS in High-Crime, ...kparker6
The document summarizes a qualitative research study that explored views and behaviors related to HIV/AIDS among African American men in a high-risk area. The study identified four major themes: 1) challenging living conditions in the area related to drugs, violence and crime, 2) limited knowledge and awareness of HIV/AIDS, 3) beliefs promoting risky sexual behaviors, and 4) acceptance of promiscuity and infidelity among men. The findings suggest a need for more community-specific interventions addressing gender roles, power dynamics, and basic needs that influence HIV risk in this population.
This document appears to be a family tree showing three generations of women: Mom at the top, Grandma below her, and Great-Grandma at the bottom, indicating their generational relationship. The simple visual uses only text to depict the familial connections between these three female family members across generations.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for 2011. It predicts the economy and markets will see modest single-digit returns, with stocks in the high single digits and bonds in the low single digits. Several factors like monetary policy, fiscal policy, inflation, commodity prices, geopolitical events, and defaults are discussed as having an influence in a period of transition and uncertainty in the markets during the second half of the year.
The document summarizes LPL Financial Research's economic and market outlook for 2011. They expect the economy and markets to be range-bound with GDP growth between 2-4% and modest single-digit returns for stocks. Bonds may see below average but positive returns of 0-5% while volatility remains elevated. Foreign policy issues may also impact markets.
Neither bulls nor bears in 2011, LPL Financial Research expects the economy and the markets will be range-bound in 2011. Bound by economic and fiscal forces that will restrain and not reverse growth, we believe the markets will provide modest single-digit rates of return.
In 2011, business leaders, policymakers, and investors will play important roles in shaping the investing environment.
Olympic Wealth Fund Javelin Class 'A' April Fact sheetRichard Baxter
The Javelin Global Fund Fact Sheet provides information on the fund's performance and holdings for Class A shares as of April 2015. The fund aims to provide capital appreciation over the medium to long term using a focus investing approach similar to Warren Buffett. Historically the fund focused on UK stocks but has expanded globally. For the period shown, a $10,000 investment since inception in July 2011 has grown to $18,981, a return of 90%. Top holdings include companies like Monster Beverage Corp, Mosaic Company, and Suncor Energy. In April 2015, the fund added Monster Beverage Corp to its portfolio and continues monitoring positions for opportunities.
Markets Corrects Amidst Economic Uncertainty Aug 5 2011ll19046
The document summarizes a market correction that occurred in early August 2011 due to fears about the global economy and Europe's debt crisis. Investors grew nervous and stock markets declined, erasing year-to-date gains. While economic data didn't indicate an imminent double dip recession, macro concerns were overriding market fundamentals in the short term. The author recommends keeping a long term perspective, as volatility creates opportunities and market fundamentals will ultimately prevail.
The document discusses the impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. It analyzes key economic indicators like unemployment, wages, and inflation that the Federal Reserve uses to determine monetary policy. Based on strong recent economic data, the document predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September for the first time since 2006. It recommends overweighting investments in the United States due to its stronger economy relative to other countries and the divergence in monetary policies globally. The interest rate hike will impact asset classes differently, with stocks expected to perform well and commodities dipping as the dollar rises.
Brian Nash presented on global markets and the economic outlook. Key points include:
- Global growth was slow to start 2016 but recovered, supported by a steady US economy.
- Inflation is expected to rise gradually in many countries due to base effects from low commodity prices.
- China's economy is slowing but more stimulus measures are expected to support stabilization.
- US economic growth remains mixed with mid- and late-cycle dynamics, supporting stocks overall.
- Emerging markets rebounded in Q1 after weakness, while a weaker dollar provided a boost to returns.
Current Conditions Index - Dec16 2009 LplMattGorham
The LPL Financial Research Current Conditions Index (CCI) is a weekly index that tracks the current economic environment. It is composed of 10 economic indicators, including initial jobless claims, business lending, retail sales, and stock market volatility. The CCI is tracking toward LPL's base case forecast for 2009, which anticipates a recession in the first half of the year followed by economic recovery in the second half. The CCI provides a fact-based measure of current conditions to help assess the likelihood of different economic scenarios.
- Financial conditions have tightened significantly since early 2018 due to rising LIBOR rates from tax code changes and higher Treasury issuance, increasing borrowing costs globally. While systemic risk has not increased like in 2008, higher costs will slow economic growth.
- Stretched equity and bond valuations, ongoing trade tensions, and tightening financial conditions have increased downside risks to asset prices. Global central banks aim to continue reducing stimulus but investors assume intervention if stocks fall sharply.
- Several leading indicators are rolling over as global macro data weakens, suggesting peak growth has passed and corporate earnings forecasts for the rest of 2018 will likely be revised lower against a deteriorating backdrop.
J.T. Mullen is the Chief Investment Strategist at Fairport Asset Management, bringing over 30 years of experience. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at The Cleveland Foundation for 23 years, growing their endowment from $400 million to $1.8 billion. John Silvis is the Director of Investments at Fairport and oversees the research team and investment decisions. Richard D'Amico is the Manager of Investments and oversees fixed income models and alternative investments.
This document provides BlackRock's outlook for 2015 global markets and economies. It identifies divergence as a key theme, with the US and UK tightening monetary policy while other regions maintain stimulus. Volatility is expected to increase from low levels as valuations are high and investor confidence in monetary policy is stretched. Geopolitical risks also remain. The outlook calls for active risk management and hedging given low potential returns and the diminished ability of bonds to offset equity declines.
Olympic Wealth Fund Javelin Class 'A' Fact sheet November endOlympic Wealth Fund
The Javelin Global Fund Fact Sheet provides performance and holdings information for the Class A shares as of November 2014. Over the 3 year period the fund has returned 69.30% and since its July 2011 inception has returned 62.11%. For 2014 year to date the return was 121.58%. The top five holdings are in the financial sector and based in the UK and US. The fund has a diversified portfolio with 73% in quoted equities and 27% in private equity holdings.
This document provides an outlook and forecasts for the US and global economies and markets for 2021 from LPL Financial. It discusses expectations that the new economic expansion may continue for years, earnings are poised for a sharp rebound in 2021-2022 which may fuel solid stock market gains, and Treasury yields are expected to rise over the next year. The outlook presents LPL Financial's views that the recovery remains uneven but global growth should rebound as the COVID threat diminishes.
Outlook 2021 for Elements Wealth ManagementJake Engel
This document provides an outlook and forecasts for the US and global economies and markets for 2021 from LPL Financial. It discusses expectations that the new economic expansion may continue for years, earnings are poised for a sharp rebound in 2021-2022 which may fuel solid stock market gains, and Treasury yields are projected to rise over the next year. The outlook presents LPL Financial's views that the recovery remains uneven but global growth should rebound as the COVID threat diminishes.
Advice for the Wise - August 2015
• The investor behaviour, bordering on split personality is probably why it is apt to call our times ‘interesting
• Diversification is not merely ‘sensible’, it is an absolute must
• Equity markets were broadly range bound for the month of July; with mid caps showing better strength compared to large cap stocks.
• Global markets got a scare from plummeting Chinese stocks as large number of local investors had to unwind their leveraged positions on account of margin calls getting triggered.
• The rate-cut cycle seems certain and one can anticipate interest rates to converge with the inflation rate in next 5-6 quarters
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
The document summarizes the performance of the Froley Revy Alternative Strategies Offshore Fund for June 2008. The fund aims to generate returns through credit, equity, convertible and option trades while preserving capital. In June, the fund avoided losses by steering clear of small, illiquid convertible bonds and maintained a portfolio weighted towards larger, more liquid names, most with high deltas. However, the fund suffered from its exposure to financial stocks. Going forward, the manager remains constructive on financial convertibles due to embedded calls but recognizes credit risk from high leverage in the sector.
The document provides an agenda for an LGIP quarterly meeting and conference call. It includes discussions on LGIP and endowment performance, new LGIP products, endowment distribution formulas, state cash flow, and an Arizona economic update. A special presentation will be given by Alex Roever of JP Morgan Securities on the US short-term credit outlook. Time will also be provided for questions.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and market performance. It notes that while stock prices doubled from early 2009 lows, the underlying economy has seen only modest growth with issues like high unemployment and government debt. It discusses PIMCO's view that advanced economies will see sluggish growth and high unemployment for the next 3-5 years, while emerging markets prosper, which is playing out. The latest economic data is keeping policymakers up at night as they try to stimulate the economy amid an end to QE2 and fiscal policy difficulties in Congress.
Russell Napier presented on why US equities may rise over 30% despite fears of a double dip recession. Key reasons included US equities being as cheap as in the last 50 years based on bond yields, and strong corporate cash balances and growth in bank lending signaling stability in earnings. Napier expects the current early bear market in bonds to not deter equities in the next 2-3 years as long as credit and balances continue growing and inflation stays below 4-5.5%. However, he maintains a cautious view on Indian markets as currently overvalued based on FIIs.
The report *State of D2C in India: A Logistics Update* talks about the evolving dynamics of the d2C landscape with a particular focus on how brands navigate the complexities of logistics. Third Party Logistics enablers emerge indispensable partners in facilitating the growth journey of D2C brands, offering cost-effective solutions tailored to their specific needs. As D2C brands continue to expand, they encounter heightened operational complexities with logistics standing out as a significant challenge. Logistics not only represents a substantial cost component for the brands but also directly influences the customer experience. Establishing efficient logistics operations while keeping costs low is therefore a crucial objective for brands. The report highlights how 3PLs are meeting the rising demands of D2C brands, supporting their expansion both online and offline, and paving the way for sustainable, scalable growth in this fast-paced market.
Adani Group's Active Interest In Increasing Its Presence in the Cement Manufa...Adani case
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Cover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SUmsthrill
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2. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
The first half of 2011 can be characterized as having
experienced patches of clouds and sun with some ups
and downs in the economy and markets.
Neither bulls nor bears, we continue to expect the
economy and the markets will be range-bound in 2011.
Bound by economic and fiscal forces that will restrain
growth, but not reverse it, we adhere to our prior
forecast for modest single-digit rates of return: high
single-digits for stocks and low single-digits for bonds.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
3. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
U.S. Private Job Growth by Month
Source: LPL Financial, Bloomberg 06/01/11 LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 2
4. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Fed Balance Sheet Near Peak as QE2 Ends ($ billions)
Source: LPL Financial, Bloomberg 06/01/11
Quantitative easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other
securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased
lending and liquidity. LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 3
5. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Weekly Money Flows to Domestic Stock Funds ($ billions)
Source: LPL Financial, Investment Company Institute data 06/01/11
Mutual Fund investing involves risk which may include loss of principal. LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 4
7. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Our outlook for the year is based on our
belief that many counterbalancing forces will
keep the markets on a path of moderate
growth accompanied by the return of
volatility. We adhere to our outlook, detailed
late last year, that the pace of gains will slow
into the high single-digits for U.S. stocks
after a powerful 2009 and 2010.
11. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Beginning in late 2007, both monetary policy
conducted by the Federal Reserve Board and fiscal
policy conducted by the U.S. Congress have been
unusually focused towards stimulating economic
growth. The transition from the stimulative to a
restrictive fiscal and monetary policy environment has
implications for financial markets and the economy.
14. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
The Fed is combating deflation by directly inflating
the money supply through QE1 and QE2, all else
equal, means that with more dollars in the system,
the value of the dollar goes down and prices in dollar
terms go up, resulting in a faster pace of inflation. We
have termed this return of deflated prices to a more
desirable level, reflation.
15. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Reflation Evident in CPI
Source: LPL Financial, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 06/22/11
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer
goods and services. LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 14
16. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Commodities Have Benefited from Fed Stimulus
Source: LPL Financial, CRB, FRB/Haver 06/22/11
The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings. LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 15
17. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Reflation Leads to Rising Bond Yields
10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant Maturity
Average, % p.a.
3.75
3.50
3.25
3.00
2.75
2.50
2.25
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 11
Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics 06/30/11 LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 16
18. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Reflation Means Weaker US Dollar
Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of US$ vs. Major Currencies
3/73=100
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
11
Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics 06/30/11 LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 17
19. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Geopolitical and foreign policy conflicts along with
regional violence escalated in the first half of
2011. Geopolitical events have shaped the
markets in the first half with popular uprisings
toppling governments in North Africa and the
defeat of Osama bin Laden with his death at the
hands of U.S. forces.
20. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
North African Unrest
Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing
$/Barrel
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
JAN 11 FEB 11 MAR 11 APR 11 MAY 11 JUN 11
Source: Wall Street Journal /Haver Analytics 06/30/11 LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 19
21. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
The Defeat of Bin Laden
US Active Duty Military Personnel
thousands
1440
1420
1400
1380
1360
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Department of Defense /Haver Analytics 06/30/11 LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 20
22. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
The second half of 2011 will be a time of
transition. The uncertainty this creates is
compounded by the already long list of
uncertainties that include the lingering aftermath
of the earthquake in Japan, devastating
tornadoes and floods in the central and southern
portions of the United States, turmoil in the
Middle East, and elevated energy prices.
23. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Commodities Asset Classes & Commodity Sensitive Stocks
Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, AM Fix
US$/Troy oz
1575
1500
1425
1350
1275
1200
1125
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
11
Source: Wall Street Journal /Haver Analytics 05/30/11
The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings. LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 22
Precious metal investing is subject to substantial fluctuation and potential for loss.
24. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Declining Defaults and Yield Spreads Support
High-Yield Bonds
Barclays High-Yield Spread vs. Moody’s 12-Month Trailing Default Rate
Source: Barclays, Moody’s, LPL Financial 05/31/11
The Barclays High-Yield Index is an unmanaged index, which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
High-Yield spread is the yield differential between the average yield of high-yield bonds and the average yield of comparable maturity Treasury bonds.
LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 23
25. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Treasuries Expensive
Source: Bloomberg, LPL Financial 05/31/2011
Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a
fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of a fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods
and services. LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 24
26. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Important Disclosures
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or
recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance
referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and are subject to availability and change in price.
Quantitative easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market.
Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.
International and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.
Spread is the difference between the bid and the ask price of a security or asset.
High-Yield spread is the yield differential between the average yield of high-yield bonds and the average yield of comparable maturity Treasury bonds.
The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.
Mutual Fund investing involves risk which may include loss of principal.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and
services.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in
the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The Barclays Aggregate Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate
bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.
The CRB Commodities Index is a measure of price movements of 22 sensitive basic commodities whose markets are presumed to be among the first to be influenced by
changes in economic conditions. As such, it serves as one early indication of impending changes in business activity.
LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 25
27. LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH
Important Disclosures
Commodity Prices – While retail sales captures end user demand for goods, commodity prices reflect the demand for the earliest stages of production of goods. Commodity
prices can offer an indication of the pace of economic activity. The CRB Commodity Index includes copper, cotton, etc. A rise in commodity prices acts as a positive on the CCI.
Mortgage Applications – The weekly index measuring mortgage applications provides an indication of housing demand. With much of the credit crisis tied to housing, keeping
tabs on real-time buying activity can offer insight on how the crisis is evolving. A rise in the index of mortgage applications acts as a positive on the CCI.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.
The LPL Financial family of affiliated companies includes LPL Financial and UVEST Financial Services Group, Inc., each of which is a member of FINRA/SIPC.
To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes
no representation with respect to such entity.
Tracking #742885 | Exp. (07/11)
LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC 26
28. Thank You For Your Business
LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC