This document discusses Bayes' theorem and its potential application to finding the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. It provides background on Bayes' theorem, including how it is used to update beliefs based on new evidence. It notes that Bayes' theorem was successfully used to locate the black box of Air France flight 447, which crashed in the Atlantic Ocean, much faster than other methods. However, experts believe it is unlikely Bayes' theorem is being applied in the search for MH370. The document argues that applying Bayes' theorem systematically based on past experiences could help locate the missing plane, rather than relying on inconclusive theories or traditional search methods.