Talk by Danny Dorling and Benjamin Hennig at the Sheila McKechnie Foundation (SMK), London, January 15, 2013. Read more at http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?p=3229

1. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
MEGACITY LONDON
Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
Danny Dorling & Benjamin Hennig
University of Sheffield
Sheila McKechnie Foundation, London
January 15, 2013

2. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
Area
Area
London is a megacity. 1,570 km2
But not because of its large area… 607 mi2

3. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released July 2012
Population
…but because of its population size Population
of over 5 million people. 8,173,194

4. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released July 2012
Population
While the ‘old’ megacities in the wealthy parts of the world
stagnate in population, London is unique it its continuing
growth and specific demography.

5. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released July 2012
An Anti-ageing Megacity?
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Inner London is a magnet for the younger age groups
full of aspirations and hopes

6. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
(Fading) Aspirations
From 1970 to 2000, area rates of poverty
and wealth in Britain have changed in
significant ways. More households have
become poor, but fewer are very poor.
Areas already wealthy have tended to
become disproportionately wealthier, and
we are seeing some evidence of
increasing polarisation.
In some of the centres of London and 2000
other cities, over half of all households
have become breadline poor in that
period.
What has changed since then? 1980
•Dorling, D., Rigby, J., Wheeler, B., Ballas, D., Thomas, B., Fahmy, E., Gordon, D., and
Lupton, R. (2007): Poverty, wealth and place in Britain, 1968 to 2005. Bristol: Policy Press.
http://www.dannydorling.org/?page_id=0463
•Office for National Statistics (2012): The 2011 Census.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/

7. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
Poverty, wealth and place in Britain
• Core poor: people who are income poor, materially
deprived and subjectively poor
• Breadline poor: people living below a relative poverty
line, and, as such, excluded from participating in the
norms of society
• Asset wealthy: estimated using the relationship between
housing wealth and the contemporary inheritance tax
threshold
• Exclusive wealthy: people with so much wealth that they
can exclude themselves from the norms of society
We calculate these groups from an approach developed for the 2001 Census (published in
2007). Once the full data of the new Census is published, these equations will need to be
adjusted and updated. The following equations explain, how the different indicators are
weighted to calculate the total number of households in each group.

8. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
Breadline Poor
The number of exclusive breadline poor households in each borough
follows the equation:
58% of overcrowded households (more than one person per room)
+ 36% of households renting from local authority or housing association
+ 32% of lone-parent households
+ 30% of households with an unemployed household reference person
+ 18% of households with no car
+ 17% of households renting from a private landlord
+ 16% of households with a member with a limiting long-term illness
+ 14% of households with no central heating or not having sole use
of amenities
+11% of households with household reference person in NS-SEC category
6, 7 or 8 (semi-routine occupations, routine occupations, never worked and long-term
unemployed according to the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification)

9. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
Exclusive Wealthy
The number of exclusive wealthy households in each
borough follows the equation:
3.1% of high social class households*
+ 1.5% of owner-occupied households
+ 4.3% of households with no dependent children
+ 2.2% of households where the head of household was in work
+ 1.6% of households with seven or more rooms**
+ 2.9% of households with two or more cars.
* with head of household in social class I or II (Working as managers and senior officials or in professional
occupations)
** left out in the following data as the data is not yet available for the 2011 Census
The 2011 Census based estimate is crude, but uses identical methods to those used in 2001. In practise this group
can be thought of as people able to afford each year to use at least two items from the following list: expensive new
car, private health insurance or care, private school fees, private domestic servants, and expenditure on a second
home.

10. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
The ‘Middle’?
We look at the changing fortunes of people by comparing
the changes of Breadline Poor, Exclusive Wealthy and
those outside these two groups, hereafter labelled as
‘Middle’.
The Middle group describes those neither poor nor
exclusively wealthy, but includes the Asset Wealthy who
are not so wealthy that they can exclude themselves from
the norms of society by dint of their wealth.

11. Own calculations based on data from the 2001 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released in 2002
Poverty, wealth and place in 2001
Breadline Poor Exclusive Wealthy
Exclusive Middle Breadline Core Poor*
Wealthy Poor
Middle
London 6.5% 48.6% 44.9% 16.7%
Inner London 6.3% 35.2% 58.5% 21.7%
Outer London 6.7% 57.6% 35.7% 13.3%
* Subset of
Breadline Poor

12. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Poverty, wealth and place in 2011
Breadline Poor Exclusive Wealthy
Exclusive Middle Breadline Core Poor*
Wealthy Poor
Middle
London 6.7% 43.8% 49.5% 16.7%
Inner London 6.6% 35.0% 58.4% 21.7%
Outer London 6.7% 50.3% 43.0% 15.5%
* Subset of
Breadline Poor

13. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Poverty, wealth and place 2001-2011
Breadline Poor Exclusive Wealthy
Excl. Middle Breadline Core Poor
Wealthy change Poor change change*
change
Middle
+0.2% -4.7% +4.5% +1.2%
Absolute differences to 2001: London
Inner London +0.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0.5%
10.8% increase in exclusive wealth; 19.2% increase in Outer London +0.0% -7.4% +7.4% +2.2%
breadline poverty; 2.1% decline in Middle households * Subset of
Breadline Poor

14. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Poverty, wealth and place 2011
Breadline Poor Exclusive Wealthy
Middle
This highlights the differences, but poor, rich and average
people and still found in significant numbers in every borough
– a direct comparison gives a better impression…

15. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Exclusive Wealthy
2011
Total (2011): 196,821
Change to 2001: +0.1%
Highest number: Barnet (9,064)

16. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Middle
2011
Total (2011): 1,432,802
Change to 2001: -4.7%
Highest number: Bromley (81,014)

17. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Breadline Poor
2011
Total (2011): 1,615,216
Change to 2001: +4.5%
Highest number: Southwark (75,597)

18. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released June 2012
Households
2011
Total (2011): 3,266,173
Change to 2001: +8.3%
Highest number: Croydon (145,010)

19. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Households NS-Sec 6, 7 or 8
2011
Total (2011): 1,594,003
Difference 2001-2011: +28.1%
Highest number: Newham (83,761)

20. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
One person in household with a long-
term health problem or disability, 2011
Total (2011): 732,552
Difference 2001-2011: -7.2%
Highest number: Croydon (33,106)

21. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Households with no adults in employment
2011
Total (2011): 920,435
Difference 2001-2011: -5.0%
Highest number: Croydon (41,516)

22. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Households with no central heating
2011
Total (2011): 92,411
Difference 2001-2011: +2.4%
Highest number: Westminster (4,664)

23. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Households privately rented
2011
Total (2011): 775,591
Difference 2001-2011: +9.4%
Highest number: Westminster (39,732)

24. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Households with an occupancy rating of
-1 or less, 2011
Total (2011): 707,437
Difference 2001-2011: +4.3%
Highest number: Newham (35,431)

25. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Households with no cars
2011
Total (2011): 1,357,251
Difference 2001-2011: +4.1%
Highest number: Lambeth (75,214)

26. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Households renting from Local Authority
2011
Total (2011): 439,727
Difference 2001-2011: +3.7%
Highest number: Southwark (37,628)

27. Data: UK 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Households in Breadline Poverty
2011
Total (2011): 1,615,216
Difference 2001-2011: +4.5%
Highest number: Southwark (75,597)

28. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 Census
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012
Increase in Breadline Poverty Rank of change in proportions
(blue=highest proportional change)
2001-2011
Total change 2001-2011: +260,271
Highest decline: City of London (-40)
Highest increase: Enfield (16,587)

29. Data: ONS, 2011
Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?
Deprivation
Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2010

30. Conclusion
London is unusual. London is becoming
more youthful. By April 2011, the middle
aged and those who are poor, but not
desperately poor, are being squeezed out.
Graduates from the rest of Britain and the
rest of the world flow in ever greater
numbers and require ever higher degrees
of optimism. Many fail to achieve their
aspirations. Above them a few are
becoming ever richer. Below them, as
privately rented and social housing
becomes too expensive for huge numbers
of lowly paid families and many leave, a
new poor may be growing, less well
See these slides and additional content online:
documented, less well protected, with
www.viewsoftheworld.net
even less to lose.
Another future is possible.