Lambeth Population Change

1. Demographic change in Lambeth
- The theory is that austerity, the welfare reform and the development in the
London housing market are pushing poorer people out of Lambeth.
- Gentrification observable in places like Brixton (new shops and restaurants, eg
in Brixton Market, threat of eviction of old shops in railway arches, etc)
- Socio-economic conditions, specifically housing (conditions, cost), can
contribute to this change
- However, current available data does not show an accelerated population
turnover in the borough.
- This does not mean that it isn’t happening, but that it may happen at a slower
pace than anticipated OR that we simply do not have the data to show it.

2. Population turnover in Lambeth has remained steady
over the past few years, with nearly equal numbers
coming and going.
-12%
-12%
-12%
-12%
-12%
-13%
-13%
-13%
-13%
-13%
11%
12%
12%
13%
12%
13%
13%
14%
14%
13%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
20010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Inflow and Outflow, total migration as percentage of population, Lambeth 2003/04-
2012/13
Lambeth inflow
Lambeth Outflow
Source: ONS Local Area Migration
Indicators

3. But – has who is coming and going changed?
Generally, national migration into Lambeth is three to four times higher than
international migration. However, more international migrants arrive in Lambeth
than leave, and more British nationals leave than arrive.
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net migration as % of total population
Lambeth International
Lambeth national
This data shows long-term migration patterns, defined as people arriving or leaving the UK for longer than 12 months. Net change shows
the difference between the number of international migrants arriving and leaving Lambeth and the difference between the number of
national migrants arriving and leaving Lambeth. Source: ONS Local Area Migration
Indicators

4. Internal migration has remained largely steady over the past 10 years, whereas
international migration has seen a slight decline.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 20010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Internal migration: population turnover (rate per 100,000 , 2003/4-2012/13 mid year estimates)
Lambeth
London
Source: ONS Local Area Migration
Indicators
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 20010/11 2011/12 2012/13
International migration: population turnover (rate per 100,000, mid-year estimates, 2003/4-2012/13
Lambeth
London
England

5. Source: DWP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
NiNo registration by broad world region, Lambeth
EU
Europe other
Middle and Central Asia
East Asia
South Asia
South East Asia
Subsaharan Africa
North Africa
North America
Central and Southern America
Oceania
Other / unknown
Note: Oceania is
almost exclusively
migrants from
Australia and
New Zealand
New international migrants of working age are generally arriving to Lambeth
from the EU. This trend has accelerated in recent years with changes to the
immigration system.

6. Source: DWP
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
NiNo registrations by top 10 EU countries
Netherlands
Germany
Bulgaria
Ireland
France
Romania
Poland
Portugal
Italy
Spain
Italy
Portugal
Poland
France
Romania
Spain
Within the EU, migrants come mostly from Spain, Italy, Portugal and Poland,
with an increase in arrivals from Romania in the past 2 years.

7. Internal migration: Where do people
come from, and where do they move
to?
Insert: shape of Lambeth with arrow out and arrow in
Data is derived from the NHS patient and the NHS Central register, as well as the higher education
statistics agency. This means that the data includes the student population

8. This is a stable pattern over the years: the age composition of those coming
and going has changed little between 2002 and 2011, with more 20-34 year
olds coming than going.
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0-14
15-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+

9. Compared to 2004, the population has remained relatively stable. There is now a slightly higher proportion of 25-29 year olds,
and of middle- people between 45 and 54. Conversely, there are fewer 15-19 year olds and 35-39 year olds.
ONS Mid year population estimates
-0.2
-0.7
-1.1
-0.3
1.7
0.2
-1.4
-0.5
1.2
1.2
0.5
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0-4 years
5-14 years
Aged 15 - 19 years
Aged 20 - 24 years
Aged 25 - 29 years
Aged 30 - 34 years
Aged 35 - 39 years
Aged 40 - 44 years
Aged 45 - 49 years
Aged 50 - 54 years
Aged 55 - 59 years
Aged 60 - 64 years
Aged 65 - 69 years
Aged 70 - 74 years
Aged 75 - 79 years
Aged 80 - 84 years
Aged 85 and over
Lambeth population change in percentage points 2004-2013
Age group 0-4 years
5-14
years
15 - 19
years
20 - 24
years
25 - 29
years
30 - 34
years
35 - 39
years
40 - 44
years
45 - 49
years
50 - 54
years
55 - 59
years
60 - 64
years
65 - 69
years
70 - 74
years
75 - 79
years
80 - 84
years
85 and
over
Difference
2004/13 in
numbers
2100 2300 -1200 2000 10900 5600 -200 1600 6100 5500 3000 1600 200 0 0 0 500
Age pyramid of the borough

10. Ethnicity
Comparing the 2001 and 2011 census shows that the white population has
decreased by 5.3% and other population groups, particularly mixed race, have
increased accordingly.
-5.3
2.3
2.8
0.1
-0.1
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
White
Asian/Asian British
Mixed ethnicity
Black/Black British
Other
% Change of ethnicity in Lambeth's population, 2001-2011, ONS data
62.4
57.1
4.6
6.9
4.8
7.6
25.8
25.9
2.5
2.4
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2001
2011
Change in ethnicity in Lambeth's population, 2001-2011, %, ONS data
White
Asian/Asian British
Mixed ethnicity
Black/Black British
Other
ONS Census
data

11. The change between 2001 and 2015 has been gradual, with the increase of the ‘black
other’ population suggesting that ethnic groups are mixing. Compared to London, the
share of the white population is declining more slowly, while the ‘black other’
category has increased nearly twice as much.
GLA Ethnicity
projections
-0.14
-0.05
-3.18
5.25
0.34
-0.44
2.85
2.04
0.01
-6.68
0.69
2.17
-0.76
2.68
0.52
0.67
3.06
4.35
0.92
-14.31
-2000% -1500% -1000% -500% 0% 500% 1000%
Bangladeshi
Black African
Black Caribbean
Black Other
Chinese
Indian
Other
Other Asian
Pakistani
White
Change in Ethnicity, percentage points, Lambeth and Greater London, GLA projections, 2001-2015
Greater London Lambeth

12. Looking 10 years ahead, this trend is set to continue: the white population is
increasing much more slowly than the population with backgrounds other
than white. The split will be nearly half-half.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
White Non-white & other
% change
from 2015
base year
3%
23%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Asian Black African Black Caribbean Black Other Other
5%
22%
29%
8%
13%
% change
from 2015
base year
Non-white
population
in detail
GLA Ethnicity
projections

13. Deprivation – the IMD 2015: Lambeth is the 22rd most deprived borough in
England, and the 8th most deprived in London. It remains among the poorest
boroughs in the country.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
IMD, Average Rank
Levelsofdeprivation
Number of boroughs less deprived than Lambeth (rank 22)

14. Housing: between 1991 and 2011, the proportion of people renting privately in Lambeth has increased
two thirds (17 % to 29%), largely driven by a drop in households renting from a social landlord. This
differs from London, where the shift is split between a drop in ownership and a drop in social renting.
Source: ONS Neighbourhood statistics (2001,2011) and Census 1991 from Nomisweb, modified
36%
37%
35%
47%
41%
35%
17%
20%
29%
1% 1%
57% 57%
50%
29%
26%
24%
14%
15%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1991 2001 2011
Owned Lambeth
Social rented Lambeth
Private rented Lambeth
Living rent free Lambeth
Owned London
Social rented London
Private rented London
Living rent free London
NB: living rent free not
available for 1991

15. Qualifications and socio-economic
classifcation
• Lambeth’s adult population is highly qualified,
and its share of people with NVQ4+ could
indicate demographic change.
• There has been an increase in certain professions
accompanied by a decrease in lower qualified
professions. This may be a result of the
retirement of people working in positions that
are not typically located in inner-London
boroughs anymore, or due to an upskilling of the
population.

16. Qualification: The proportion of people with NVQ4 or higher has risen faster than in
London and England, and is also higher.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Jan 2004-
Dec 2004
Jan 2005-
Dec 2005
Jan 2006-
Dec 2006
Jan 2007-
Dec 2007
Jan 2008-
Dec 2008
Jan 2009-
Dec 2009
Jan 2010-
Dec 2010
Jan 2011-
Dec 2011
Jan 2012-
Dec 2012
Jan 2013-
Dec 2013
Jan 2014-
Dec 2014
Lambeth
London
England
Source: APS

17. Socio-economic qualifications fluctuate across the years, but between 2004 and 2014, there has been a 10 percent point increase
(nearly 60% from 17.1 to 27.1%) in associated professional and technical occupations (Class 3), way outstripping London and
national trends. Skilled trade occupations (class 5), process, plant and machine operator jobs (class 8) and elementary
occupations have all declined (9), as have class 1 (managers, directors and senior officials
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Class 1
Class 2
Class 3
Class 4
Class 5
Class 6
Class 7
Class 8
Class 9
England
London
Lambeth

18. School Census: Ethnicity
In primary schools, until 2011, the proportion of white and black pupils declined, with a slight increase in the mixed population
group. Since 2013, there is a slight increase in white primary school pupils, with a concurrent drop in the black student population.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pupils’ ethnicity, % primary schools, Lambeth
Proportions have remained more stable in secondary schools. There is also a minor increase in the ‘mixed’ population,
with a concurrent decline in the black and white populations.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pupils’ ethnicity, % secondary school, Lambeth
White Mixed Asian Black Chinese Any Other Ethnic Group
note: missing %
are 'unclassified‘;
Chinese secondary
pupils n/a in 2005

19. 45 47 47 47 47 48 49 48 49 50 50
55 52 53 53 53 52 51 51 51 50 50
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
First language, primary school, Lambeth
First language other than English, % First language English, %
38 39 39 43 42 40 38 39 40 41 43
62 61 61 57 58 60 62 61 60 59 57
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
First Language, secondary school, Lambeth
First language other than English, % First language English, %
School census: language
In primary school, pupils are nearly evenly split between those who have English as a first language and
those who do not.
In secondary school, there are more students with English a first language, although proportions fluctuate slightly.
Note that these data rely on
reporting from teachers who may
mistake a fluent English speaker as a
native speaker
Missing %: unknown/not
recorded

20. Free school meals in primary schools: There has been a decline since 2004 by 7
percentage points. The tightening of eligibility criteria may be a reason for this, but it
needs to be investigated further.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Note: before 2011, only the number of pupils known to be eligible for free school meals was recorded rather than those who also claimed it.

21. Free school meals in secondary schools: the proportion of pupils eligible for and claiming free
school meals in Lambeth is declining. This may be due to population churn or changing eligibility
criteria.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Note: before 2011, only the number of pupils known to be eligible for free school meals was recorded rather than those who also claimed it.