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Media’s Rapidly Evolving Competitive Landscape
Wednesday, March 12, at 2:00 PM EDT
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Disclaimer
This webcast is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer, solicitation, or
recommendation for the purchase or sale of a financial instrument or to effect a transaction. The
information contained within this webcast has been obtained from and is based upon sources believed to be
reliable. General Electric Capital Corporation and any of its affiliates (collectively “GECC”) do not guarantee
the accuracy or completeness of the information and make no express or implied representations, but
reasonable steps have been taken to determine the accuracy and completeness of the information. All
opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the authors as of the date of the webcast
and are subject to change without notice. Market rates, valuations and availability of financial instruments
also are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained within the materials constitutes financial,
legal, tax, accounting or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely
based on this webcast. You should obtain advice from qualified experts before making any investment
decision.
This webcast is produced separately from any other activity of GECC and was completed without access to
non-public information that may have been received by other units of GECC. This webcast may not be
reproduced or redistributed in any form without prior written permission from GECC. The use of this webcast
in connection with the writing, marketing or promotion of any financial instruments, services or products is
prohibited.
Intended use for participants on Webinar
3
Ben Abramovitz
CFA
Senior Research Analyst
GE Capital, Americas
Today’s Speaker
Rob Podorefsky
Managing Director &
Interest Rate Strategist
GE Capital, Americas
4
Today’s Discussion
- Achieving faster growth
- The Fed’s policy dilemma
- Fiscal situation improves
- Media landscape over time
- How consumers spend their media time
- A closer look at digital, TV and radio
Intended use for participants on Webinar 5
The Economy
Slightly faster growth expected amid low
inflation
Annual Growth - Nominal US GDP
-1%
3%
7%
11%
15%
Dec-65 Dec-77 Dec-89 Dec-01 Dec-13
Data sources: FRB,BEA & GE IRM
(*) '14 GDP projection from Dec 18 FOMC forecast plus Price Deflator of 2.0%
6.8% = 50-year average
(*) '14
4.7% = 25-year average
Is moderate growth behind us?
Intended use for participants on Webinar 7
Quarterly Change
in US Residential Mortgages Outstanding
Bn's of $
-175
-50
75
200
325
Sep-02 Jun-06 Mar-10 Dec-13
Data source: Federal Reserve
Peak, Q1 '06: + 311 Bn
Latest, Q4 '13: - 23 Bn
GDP’s grown despite dramatic change
Intended use for participants on Webinar 8
Data source: BEA
Personal
consumption
67.9% vs
67.2% Q4 '07
Private
investment,
16.7% vs
17.4% Q4 '07
Net exports,
-2.4% vs -
4.1% Q4 '07
Gov't
spending,
18.0% vs
19.6% Q4 '07
U.S. RealGDP
$16 Tn
Q4 2013
GDP mix, mild differences 6 yrs later
Intended use for participants on Webinar 9
Q4 2013 vs 2006 average
Non Durables: 21.9% (22%)
Food & beverage: 8%
Clothing & footware: 3%
Gasoline/other energy: 3%
Other: 8%
Services: 65.7% (67%)
Housing & utilities: 18%
Health care: 16.6% (15.5%)
Financial & insurance: 7%
Restaurant & hotel: 6%
Recreation: 4%
Transportation: 3%
Other: 11% (12%)
Durable Goods: 12.6% (11%)
Recreational goods: 4.3% (2.7%)
Vehicles & parts: 4%
Furnishings/household equip: 3%
Other: 2%
Personal spending … how $10.8 Tn gets spent
Intended use for participants on Webinar 10
in millions
110
114
118
122
Oct-03 May-06 Dec-08 Jul-11 Feb-14
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Household Data
24
26
27
29
Full-time workers (left axis)
Part-time workers (right axis)
Labor markets slowly improve
Intended use for participants on Webinar 11
-3.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
Sep-00 Jan-04 May-07 Sep-10 Jan-14
Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Disposable Personal Income (YOY)
2000 to 2007 average of 3.1%
2013 avg: 0.8%
2012 avg: 2.0%
2011 avg: 2.4%
Amid lackluster income growth
Intended use for participants on Webinar 12
US GDP - Real Personal Consumption
-4.6%
-2.3%
0.0%
2.3%
4.6%
Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13
Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Total: $10.8 Tn Spent on services: $7.1 Tn
2.6%
2.2%
Upside potential … consumer spending
Intended use for participants on Webinar 13
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
'89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13
Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Realpersonalspending growth - left axis
Spending on gasoline as a % of personal spending
Steadier gasoline prices should help
Intended use for participants on Webinar 14
US Public Equity Market Capitalization
Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Index
in trillions of dollars
$16
$9
$12
$13 $13
$15
$19.7 $20.1
Oct-07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '14 so
far
Data source :Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Pre-crisis
high
Wealth is being restored
Intended use for participants on Webinar 15
Data sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & The Conference Board
9
11
13
15
17
Feb-07 Nov-08 Aug-10 May-12 Feb-14
20
43
66
89
112
US auto sales, annual pace in mn's - left axis
US consumer confidence index - right axis
Intended use for participants on Webinar
Sentiment’s choppy climb to continue
16
Change in Real Private Business Investment
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13
Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Quarterly outcome - annualized
Half-year outcome - annualized
Year over year outcome 7%
6%
3%
Since recession officially ended:
18 qtrs: Real Bus. Investment + 24%
Upside potential … business investment
Intended use for participants on Webinar 17
US Monetary Policy
Paring back asset purchases, even a little,
was a big deal … complex issues ahead
Per FOMC's December Forecast
Appropriate Timing of Policy
Firming per FOMC members
3
2
12
2014 2015 2016
number of FOMC participants
New leadership matters
-Janet Yellen faces a delicate balancing act
-Several new voting members this year
Intended use for participants on Webinar 19
US Fiscal Realities
YOY growth in the public debt has slowed
Washington must limit fiscal
uncertainties
US Budget Deficit as % of GDP
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Data sources: BEA, US Treasury & CBO
2014 - 2023 CBO
Estimate Feb '14
Making progress, will it continue?
Intended use for participants on Webinar 21
Media
Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, Economy.com, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and GE Capital
Ad Landscape
Post dot.com bubble
correlation has
diminished likely due to
shift toward Internet ad
spending
Ad spend historically
trended around 2% of
GDP, likely due to high
proportion of GDP
derived from consumer
spending/private
investments and as
company ad budgets
are derived as a % of
sales
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
YoYGrowth
High Correlation Between Growth of Advertising &
Economy
Advertising GDP
Economy & advertising spending is highly
correlated
Intended use for participants on Webinar
23
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Media&EntertainmentSpend(Bn.)
Media & Ent Dollars Spent Media & Ent Spend Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & GE Capital Analysis
Ad Landscape
Consumers spent nearly $392 billion on media
& entertainment in 2013
Intended use for participants on Webinar
24
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Y-O-YChange
Revenues(Bn.)
US Advertising
Revenues YoY Change
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2003 2008 2013
Revenues(Bn.)
US Advertising Over the Past
Decade
Revenues
Rising only 3% in 10 years
Source: SNL Kagan, December 2013
Ad Landscape
….and US advertisers spent $223 billion, largely
unchanged in the past decade
Intended use for participants on Webinar
25
16%
16%
20%
9%
18%
7%
3%
2%
4%
3% 1%
US Advertising Share 2013
3%
8%
22%
23%
19%
9%
6%
5%
3% 2%
Internet Cable TV Direct Mail Newspapers
Broadcast TV Radio Mobile Yellow Pages
Magazines Outdoor Business Publications
US Advertising Share 2003
Source: SNL Kagan, December 2013, GECA Analysis
Share of the spend has shifted over the decade
Ad Landscape
Intended use for participants on Webinar
26
-50% 0% 50% 100%
Internet
Cable TV
Direct Mail
Newspapers
Broadcast TV
Radio
Mobile
Yellow Pages
Magazines
Outdoor
Business Publications
Satellite Radio
5-Year Revenue CAGR by Segment
13-'18 08-'13
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
Revenues(Bn.)
2011 2012 2013E
Source: SNL Kagan, December 2013
Ad Landscape
Internet, cable and now mobile are taking Ad
share & should continue growing
27
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2010 2011 2012 2013
% of Time Spent per Day by Adults
with Major Media
Digital TV Radio Print Other
* Digital primarily represents online & mobile with the growth
driver 2010-2013 entirely contributed by non-voice mobile
Source: eMarketer, July 2013
Source: Nielsen, Cross Platform Report, December 2013
% of Time Spent by Platform
by Hour
Ad Landscape
Because spending is shifting as time spent with
each medium is shifting
Intended use for participants on Webinar
28
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
TV Radio News/Info Scl Media Tot Intrnt
Users
Percentage of Time Spent Online
Using Media by Platform
PC Smartphone Tablet
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013
Percentage of Time Spent on
Each Mobile Device
Smartphone Tablet Feature Phone
Source: eMarketer, September 2013Source: eMarketer, July 2013
Ad Landscape
Tablets and smartphones are altering our
method of media consumption
Intended use for participants on Webinar
29
Ad Landscape
The 3 Largest Sub-Segments
Internet Mobile Television Radio
Digital
Intended use for participants on Webinar
30
• 2013 Estimated Ad Dollars Spent:
• $42.7 Billion
• Percentage of Ad Dollars Spent in
2013:
• Internet: 16%
• Mobile: 3%
• Time Spent Digital Viewing per Day:
• 5 Hours 16 Minutes
• Percentage Digital Time vs All
Major Media: 44%
Digital
Quick look at digital stats
Intended use for participants on Webinar
31
Source: Yankee Group Global Mobile Forecast, December 2013; Tablet Projections - SNL Kagan, July 2013
Digital
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
ConsumerHandsetsInUse(Mn.)
Adoption of Advanced Mobile Handsets
2G 3G 3.5G 4G Tablets
Faster mobile internet access in the US should
help drive higher advertising revenue
Intended use for participants on Webinar
32
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Y-O-YChange
Spending(Bn.)
Internet Advertising
Total U.S. Online Advertising Revenues Y-O-Y Change
Digital
Source: SNL Kagan, September 2013
Internet Ad revenues have outpaced other
segments in recent years
Intended use for participants on Webinar
33
Digital
Source: SNL Kagan, September 2013
46% 48% 49% 49% 49% 49% 48%
3%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
6% 6% 7% 9% 11% 12% 14%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Internet Advertising Revenue Breakdown
Search Sponsorship Banner
Classified Online Video Lead Generation
Other Rich Media
Online video ads driven
by increased premium
video viewing
Traditional search
advertising to lose
market share to mobile
search
Shifts in spending to online video & mobile
Intended use for participants on Webinar
34
• 2013 Ad Dollars Spent: $75.5 Billion
• Percentage of Ad Dollars Spent in 2013:
• Broadcast TV: 18%
• Cable TV: 16%
• Time Spent Television Viewing per Day:
• 4 Hours 31 Minutes
• Percentage TV Time vs All Major Media: 37%
• Authenticated Viewing Rising Rapidly
• Ad Rolls per Minute of Content Viewing Continues to
Rise
• Dynamic Ad Insertion (DAI) Improves the Advertising
Economics for VOD
• Time Shift Viewing Continues Rising as E-M-P
Improves
• 50% DVR Penetration of Households by 2017,
including Cloud-based DVR
TV
Look at television stats & changing landscape
Intended use for participants on Webinar
35
Source: Freewheel-Video Monetization Report Q3 2013
• Short-form (0-5 minutes) – video clips, music videos, made for web content
• Mid-form (5-20 minutes) – web series, extended clips, interviews
• Long-form (20+ minutes) – linear TV shows, movies, sporting events
5.00%
7.10%
8.30%
14.20%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013
%ofTotalVideoAdViews
TV
Authenticated viewing is rising rapidly, comprising
14% of Ad views on long form (20 min+) content
Intended use for participants on Webinar
36
The rapid growth in ad views per minute of content risks alienating users
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Avg. Desktop Content Minutes Viewed Per
Ad Minute
Source: comScore; SNL Kagan, January 2014
TV
Online Ad minutes to content minutes approaches
TV parity
Intended use for participants on Webinar
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OccupiedHHswithDVR
TotalDVRHouseholds(Mn.)
DVR Penetration
Total DVR Households Occupied HHs with DVR
Broader introduction of network or cloud-
based storage expected to largely
supplement rather than replace set-top
DVRs
Time shift viewing more broadly accepted
as ability to EMP increases
VOD users watch more of a 30-minute
program
TV
Source: SNL Kagan, October 2013
20
23
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Live DVR VOD
Minutes
On-demand viewers indexed highest on
commercial viewing (likely attributable to the
fact that fast-forwarding is often disabled).
Source: Nielson, December 2013 Study
50% of households in the U.S. expected to have
DVRs by 2017
Intended use for participants on Webinar
38
Radio
• 2013 Estimated Ad Dollars Spent: $15.5 Billion
• Percentage of Ad Dollars Spent in 2013: 7%
• Time Spent Radio Listening per Day:
• 1 Hour 26 Minutes
• Percentage Radio Time vs All Major Media: 12%
• Radio Reaches over 90% of the Population
Quick look at Radio stats
Intended use for participants on Webinar
39
Source: Revenue Advertising Bureau
Streaming Services Examples
Pandora
Spotify
Clear Channel’s iHeart Radio
Rdio
Daisy/MOG
Apple
Google
Amazon
Caveats for Streaming Radio Providers
• Overcoming the benefits to advertisers
from the “local” effect of broadcast
radio
• Royalty payment pressure to providers
as streaming has impacted artist
revenue from digital downloads
• Considering significant use on mobile,
carrier data plans could play a role in
future adoption
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
$0
$40
$80
$120
$160
$200
$240
$280
3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13
%ofTerrestrialRadioRevenues
QuarterlyRevenues(Mn.)
Digital Revenues % of Terrestrial Radio Revenues
Radio
Streaming freemium a threat to broadcast radio?
Intended use for participants on Webinar
40
eMarketer estimates that digital radio listeners represents just more than half
of the population and nearly two-thirds of internet users
Radio
Source: eMarketer, February 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Y-O-YChange
Monthlydigitalradiolisteners(Mn.)
Monthly digital radio listeners (Mn.)
Monthly digital radio listeners (Mn.) % of internet users % of population
Digital Radio - a rapidly growing space
Intended use for participants on Webinar
41
- Advertising Spending -----> Growing faster than GDP
- Digital Evolution -----> Mobile drives growth
- TV everywhere & VOD -----> Dynamic ad insertion alters landscape
- Radio evolves -----> Authenticated radio improves EMP
- Mortgage debt increase -----> More spending potential
- Gov’t spending/investment -----> Less fiscal drag
- Full-time job gains -----> Likelihood for higher pay
- Spending on services -----> Discretionary spending sign
- Business investment -----> Uneven, pent-up demand
Summary – what to watch for
Intended use for participants on Webinar
42
Questions?
Intended use for participants on Webinar
If you would like to receive our GE Capital Telecom or Media Quarterly, send your request to:
Ben.abramovitz@ge.com OR call 646-428-7129
Ben Abramovitz
CFA
Senior Research Analyst
GE Capital, Americas
Rob Podorefsky
Managing Director &
Interest Rate Strategist
GE Capital, Americas

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Medias_Rapidly_Evolving_Competitive_Landscape_3-12-2014

  • 1. Dial-in Info: 1-888-634-4837 Conference ID 30368010 Thanks for joining us! The webinar will begin shortly Media’s Rapidly Evolving Competitive Landscape Wednesday, March 12, at 2:00 PM EDT
  • 2. Digital Solutions Live & On Demand Webinars Multi-Customer Summits One-on-One Engagements Access GE Sharing what we do and what we learned
  • 3. Disclaimer This webcast is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for the purchase or sale of a financial instrument or to effect a transaction. The information contained within this webcast has been obtained from and is based upon sources believed to be reliable. General Electric Capital Corporation and any of its affiliates (collectively “GECC”) do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and make no express or implied representations, but reasonable steps have been taken to determine the accuracy and completeness of the information. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the authors as of the date of the webcast and are subject to change without notice. Market rates, valuations and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained within the materials constitutes financial, legal, tax, accounting or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on this webcast. You should obtain advice from qualified experts before making any investment decision. This webcast is produced separately from any other activity of GECC and was completed without access to non-public information that may have been received by other units of GECC. This webcast may not be reproduced or redistributed in any form without prior written permission from GECC. The use of this webcast in connection with the writing, marketing or promotion of any financial instruments, services or products is prohibited. Intended use for participants on Webinar 3
  • 4. Ben Abramovitz CFA Senior Research Analyst GE Capital, Americas Today’s Speaker Rob Podorefsky Managing Director & Interest Rate Strategist GE Capital, Americas 4
  • 5. Today’s Discussion - Achieving faster growth - The Fed’s policy dilemma - Fiscal situation improves - Media landscape over time - How consumers spend their media time - A closer look at digital, TV and radio Intended use for participants on Webinar 5
  • 6. The Economy Slightly faster growth expected amid low inflation
  • 7. Annual Growth - Nominal US GDP -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% Dec-65 Dec-77 Dec-89 Dec-01 Dec-13 Data sources: FRB,BEA & GE IRM (*) '14 GDP projection from Dec 18 FOMC forecast plus Price Deflator of 2.0% 6.8% = 50-year average (*) '14 4.7% = 25-year average Is moderate growth behind us? Intended use for participants on Webinar 7
  • 8. Quarterly Change in US Residential Mortgages Outstanding Bn's of $ -175 -50 75 200 325 Sep-02 Jun-06 Mar-10 Dec-13 Data source: Federal Reserve Peak, Q1 '06: + 311 Bn Latest, Q4 '13: - 23 Bn GDP’s grown despite dramatic change Intended use for participants on Webinar 8
  • 9. Data source: BEA Personal consumption 67.9% vs 67.2% Q4 '07 Private investment, 16.7% vs 17.4% Q4 '07 Net exports, -2.4% vs - 4.1% Q4 '07 Gov't spending, 18.0% vs 19.6% Q4 '07 U.S. RealGDP $16 Tn Q4 2013 GDP mix, mild differences 6 yrs later Intended use for participants on Webinar 9
  • 10. Q4 2013 vs 2006 average Non Durables: 21.9% (22%) Food & beverage: 8% Clothing & footware: 3% Gasoline/other energy: 3% Other: 8% Services: 65.7% (67%) Housing & utilities: 18% Health care: 16.6% (15.5%) Financial & insurance: 7% Restaurant & hotel: 6% Recreation: 4% Transportation: 3% Other: 11% (12%) Durable Goods: 12.6% (11%) Recreational goods: 4.3% (2.7%) Vehicles & parts: 4% Furnishings/household equip: 3% Other: 2% Personal spending … how $10.8 Tn gets spent Intended use for participants on Webinar 10
  • 11. in millions 110 114 118 122 Oct-03 May-06 Dec-08 Jul-11 Feb-14 Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Household Data 24 26 27 29 Full-time workers (left axis) Part-time workers (right axis) Labor markets slowly improve Intended use for participants on Webinar 11
  • 12. -3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% Sep-00 Jan-04 May-07 Sep-10 Jan-14 Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Disposable Personal Income (YOY) 2000 to 2007 average of 3.1% 2013 avg: 0.8% 2012 avg: 2.0% 2011 avg: 2.4% Amid lackluster income growth Intended use for participants on Webinar 12
  • 13. US GDP - Real Personal Consumption -4.6% -2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 4.6% Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13 Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Total: $10.8 Tn Spent on services: $7.1 Tn 2.6% 2.2% Upside potential … consumer spending Intended use for participants on Webinar 13
  • 14. -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13 Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Realpersonalspending growth - left axis Spending on gasoline as a % of personal spending Steadier gasoline prices should help Intended use for participants on Webinar 14
  • 15. US Public Equity Market Capitalization Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Index in trillions of dollars $16 $9 $12 $13 $13 $15 $19.7 $20.1 Oct-07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '14 so far Data source :Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Pre-crisis high Wealth is being restored Intended use for participants on Webinar 15
  • 16. Data sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & The Conference Board 9 11 13 15 17 Feb-07 Nov-08 Aug-10 May-12 Feb-14 20 43 66 89 112 US auto sales, annual pace in mn's - left axis US consumer confidence index - right axis Intended use for participants on Webinar Sentiment’s choppy climb to continue 16
  • 17. Change in Real Private Business Investment -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13 Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarterly outcome - annualized Half-year outcome - annualized Year over year outcome 7% 6% 3% Since recession officially ended: 18 qtrs: Real Bus. Investment + 24% Upside potential … business investment Intended use for participants on Webinar 17
  • 18. US Monetary Policy Paring back asset purchases, even a little, was a big deal … complex issues ahead
  • 19. Per FOMC's December Forecast Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming per FOMC members 3 2 12 2014 2015 2016 number of FOMC participants New leadership matters -Janet Yellen faces a delicate balancing act -Several new voting members this year Intended use for participants on Webinar 19
  • 20. US Fiscal Realities YOY growth in the public debt has slowed Washington must limit fiscal uncertainties
  • 21. US Budget Deficit as % of GDP -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Data sources: BEA, US Treasury & CBO 2014 - 2023 CBO Estimate Feb '14 Making progress, will it continue? Intended use for participants on Webinar 21
  • 22. Media
  • 23. Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, Economy.com, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and GE Capital Ad Landscape Post dot.com bubble correlation has diminished likely due to shift toward Internet ad spending Ad spend historically trended around 2% of GDP, likely due to high proportion of GDP derived from consumer spending/private investments and as company ad budgets are derived as a % of sales -15% -5% 5% 15% 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 YoYGrowth High Correlation Between Growth of Advertising & Economy Advertising GDP Economy & advertising spending is highly correlated Intended use for participants on Webinar 23
  • 24. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Media&EntertainmentSpend(Bn.) Media & Ent Dollars Spent Media & Ent Spend Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & GE Capital Analysis Ad Landscape Consumers spent nearly $392 billion on media & entertainment in 2013 Intended use for participants on Webinar 24
  • 25. -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Y-O-YChange Revenues(Bn.) US Advertising Revenues YoY Change $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 2003 2008 2013 Revenues(Bn.) US Advertising Over the Past Decade Revenues Rising only 3% in 10 years Source: SNL Kagan, December 2013 Ad Landscape ….and US advertisers spent $223 billion, largely unchanged in the past decade Intended use for participants on Webinar 25
  • 26. 16% 16% 20% 9% 18% 7% 3% 2% 4% 3% 1% US Advertising Share 2013 3% 8% 22% 23% 19% 9% 6% 5% 3% 2% Internet Cable TV Direct Mail Newspapers Broadcast TV Radio Mobile Yellow Pages Magazines Outdoor Business Publications US Advertising Share 2003 Source: SNL Kagan, December 2013, GECA Analysis Share of the spend has shifted over the decade Ad Landscape Intended use for participants on Webinar 26
  • 27. -50% 0% 50% 100% Internet Cable TV Direct Mail Newspapers Broadcast TV Radio Mobile Yellow Pages Magazines Outdoor Business Publications Satellite Radio 5-Year Revenue CAGR by Segment 13-'18 08-'13 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 Revenues(Bn.) 2011 2012 2013E Source: SNL Kagan, December 2013 Ad Landscape Internet, cable and now mobile are taking Ad share & should continue growing 27
  • 28. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2010 2011 2012 2013 % of Time Spent per Day by Adults with Major Media Digital TV Radio Print Other * Digital primarily represents online & mobile with the growth driver 2010-2013 entirely contributed by non-voice mobile Source: eMarketer, July 2013 Source: Nielsen, Cross Platform Report, December 2013 % of Time Spent by Platform by Hour Ad Landscape Because spending is shifting as time spent with each medium is shifting Intended use for participants on Webinar 28
  • 29. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% TV Radio News/Info Scl Media Tot Intrnt Users Percentage of Time Spent Online Using Media by Platform PC Smartphone Tablet 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Percentage of Time Spent on Each Mobile Device Smartphone Tablet Feature Phone Source: eMarketer, September 2013Source: eMarketer, July 2013 Ad Landscape Tablets and smartphones are altering our method of media consumption Intended use for participants on Webinar 29
  • 30. Ad Landscape The 3 Largest Sub-Segments Internet Mobile Television Radio Digital Intended use for participants on Webinar 30
  • 31. • 2013 Estimated Ad Dollars Spent: • $42.7 Billion • Percentage of Ad Dollars Spent in 2013: • Internet: 16% • Mobile: 3% • Time Spent Digital Viewing per Day: • 5 Hours 16 Minutes • Percentage Digital Time vs All Major Media: 44% Digital Quick look at digital stats Intended use for participants on Webinar 31
  • 32. Source: Yankee Group Global Mobile Forecast, December 2013; Tablet Projections - SNL Kagan, July 2013 Digital 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 ConsumerHandsetsInUse(Mn.) Adoption of Advanced Mobile Handsets 2G 3G 3.5G 4G Tablets Faster mobile internet access in the US should help drive higher advertising revenue Intended use for participants on Webinar 32
  • 33. -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Y-O-YChange Spending(Bn.) Internet Advertising Total U.S. Online Advertising Revenues Y-O-Y Change Digital Source: SNL Kagan, September 2013 Internet Ad revenues have outpaced other segments in recent years Intended use for participants on Webinar 33
  • 34. Digital Source: SNL Kagan, September 2013 46% 48% 49% 49% 49% 49% 48% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% 6% 7% 9% 11% 12% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Internet Advertising Revenue Breakdown Search Sponsorship Banner Classified Online Video Lead Generation Other Rich Media Online video ads driven by increased premium video viewing Traditional search advertising to lose market share to mobile search Shifts in spending to online video & mobile Intended use for participants on Webinar 34
  • 35. • 2013 Ad Dollars Spent: $75.5 Billion • Percentage of Ad Dollars Spent in 2013: • Broadcast TV: 18% • Cable TV: 16% • Time Spent Television Viewing per Day: • 4 Hours 31 Minutes • Percentage TV Time vs All Major Media: 37% • Authenticated Viewing Rising Rapidly • Ad Rolls per Minute of Content Viewing Continues to Rise • Dynamic Ad Insertion (DAI) Improves the Advertising Economics for VOD • Time Shift Viewing Continues Rising as E-M-P Improves • 50% DVR Penetration of Households by 2017, including Cloud-based DVR TV Look at television stats & changing landscape Intended use for participants on Webinar 35
  • 36. Source: Freewheel-Video Monetization Report Q3 2013 • Short-form (0-5 minutes) – video clips, music videos, made for web content • Mid-form (5-20 minutes) – web series, extended clips, interviews • Long-form (20+ minutes) – linear TV shows, movies, sporting events 5.00% 7.10% 8.30% 14.20% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 %ofTotalVideoAdViews TV Authenticated viewing is rising rapidly, comprising 14% of Ad views on long form (20 min+) content Intended use for participants on Webinar 36
  • 37. The rapid growth in ad views per minute of content risks alienating users 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Avg. Desktop Content Minutes Viewed Per Ad Minute Source: comScore; SNL Kagan, January 2014 TV Online Ad minutes to content minutes approaches TV parity Intended use for participants on Webinar 37
  • 38. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 OccupiedHHswithDVR TotalDVRHouseholds(Mn.) DVR Penetration Total DVR Households Occupied HHs with DVR Broader introduction of network or cloud- based storage expected to largely supplement rather than replace set-top DVRs Time shift viewing more broadly accepted as ability to EMP increases VOD users watch more of a 30-minute program TV Source: SNL Kagan, October 2013 20 23 28 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Live DVR VOD Minutes On-demand viewers indexed highest on commercial viewing (likely attributable to the fact that fast-forwarding is often disabled). Source: Nielson, December 2013 Study 50% of households in the U.S. expected to have DVRs by 2017 Intended use for participants on Webinar 38
  • 39. Radio • 2013 Estimated Ad Dollars Spent: $15.5 Billion • Percentage of Ad Dollars Spent in 2013: 7% • Time Spent Radio Listening per Day: • 1 Hour 26 Minutes • Percentage Radio Time vs All Major Media: 12% • Radio Reaches over 90% of the Population Quick look at Radio stats Intended use for participants on Webinar 39
  • 40. Source: Revenue Advertising Bureau Streaming Services Examples Pandora Spotify Clear Channel’s iHeart Radio Rdio Daisy/MOG Apple Google Amazon Caveats for Streaming Radio Providers • Overcoming the benefits to advertisers from the “local” effect of broadcast radio • Royalty payment pressure to providers as streaming has impacted artist revenue from digital downloads • Considering significant use on mobile, carrier data plans could play a role in future adoption 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% $0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $280 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 %ofTerrestrialRadioRevenues QuarterlyRevenues(Mn.) Digital Revenues % of Terrestrial Radio Revenues Radio Streaming freemium a threat to broadcast radio? Intended use for participants on Webinar 40
  • 41. eMarketer estimates that digital radio listeners represents just more than half of the population and nearly two-thirds of internet users Radio Source: eMarketer, February 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y-O-YChange Monthlydigitalradiolisteners(Mn.) Monthly digital radio listeners (Mn.) Monthly digital radio listeners (Mn.) % of internet users % of population Digital Radio - a rapidly growing space Intended use for participants on Webinar 41
  • 42. - Advertising Spending -----> Growing faster than GDP - Digital Evolution -----> Mobile drives growth - TV everywhere & VOD -----> Dynamic ad insertion alters landscape - Radio evolves -----> Authenticated radio improves EMP - Mortgage debt increase -----> More spending potential - Gov’t spending/investment -----> Less fiscal drag - Full-time job gains -----> Likelihood for higher pay - Spending on services -----> Discretionary spending sign - Business investment -----> Uneven, pent-up demand Summary – what to watch for Intended use for participants on Webinar 42
  • 43. Questions? Intended use for participants on Webinar If you would like to receive our GE Capital Telecom or Media Quarterly, send your request to: Ben.abramovitz@ge.com OR call 646-428-7129 Ben Abramovitz CFA Senior Research Analyst GE Capital, Americas Rob Podorefsky Managing Director & Interest Rate Strategist GE Capital, Americas