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GE Capital
Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 1
• The overall domestic ad spend growth rate
remained strong in 3Q although the
aggregate growth rate for consumer spending
on media & entertainment declined to less
than 1%, primarily due to the decline in
expenditures on Internet access.
• Internet advertising continues to grow at a
double-digit pace, far outpacing growth of the
broader ad sector, driven by rising mobile
advertising.
• Monthly unique visitors to Internet sites, from
PCs, remains higher, despite increasing mobile
access capturing additional traffic and
negatively impacting monthly average visits
from a PC.
• Radio broadcasters’ revenues remain
effectively flat in the past few years while
digital revenues continued to grow double
digit, but longer term growth is threatened by
growing Internet substitutes.
• Tracked TV broadcasters’ revenues grew
primarily driven by strong M&A activity and
retransmission fees. Organic ad growth
appears to be closer to flat to very low single
digit.
• Disclosures from public companies indicated
Y/Y revenue in outdoor advertising rose 2.5%.
Lamar reported occupancy levels for bulletins
and posters were up slightly Y/Y but bulletin
pricing remains lower.
Key Developments
Overall Spend
Organic Domestic Growth for Ad Agency Holding Companies
Organic domestic growth rates of the major
ad agency holding companies in the US grew
by a median of 4.7% in 3Q14, marking a third
quarter of improvement in the growth rate,
driven by high single digit US organic growth
at both Omnicom and Interpublic. Advertising
spending has historically had a high
correlation to overall GDP growth.3.1%
3.7%
0.9%
2.7%
4.5%
3.2%
4.8% 4.8% 4.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
OrganicRevenueGrowth
Source: Quarterly earnings presentations from Havas, Interpublic Group, Omnicom,
PublicisandWPP; GE Capital analysis
Industry Research Update
Media
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GE Capital
Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 2
33.2 32.8
44.3
21.6
42.7
15.5
6.0
9.7
6.6
35.1 34.4
43.3
19.9
40.2
15.3
4.9
9.5
7.0
36.6 36.7
42.2
18.9
44.0
15.4
4.1
9.2
7.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Internet
CableTV
DirectMail
News.
BcastTV
Radio
YellowPgs
Magazines
Outdoor
Revenues(Billions)
2012
2013
2014
Source: SNL
5.8%
7.6%
8.1%
6.9% 7.1%
5.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoYGrowth
Source: Bureau of EconomicAnalysis
& GE Capital analysis
Overall Spend (cont.)
Cable TV and Internet advertising continue to
grow (with mobile now boosting Internet ad
growth), while TV broadcasters benefitted in
2012 from Olympic and political spending
and direct mail and radio have held up fairly
well in the short term despite longer-term
forecasts that expect declines.
Based upon data from the Bureau of
Economic Analysis, consumers’ media and
entertainment expenditures, on a seasonally
adjusted annualized rate basis, totaled $407
billion in 3Q14, up less than .5% from
1Q13. The decline in annual growth during
the past several quarters has been solely
related to PCE declines in Internet access
spending.
Aggregate Growth for Consumer Spending on Media & Entertainment
Breakout of Ad Spend
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GE Capital
Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 3
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
YoYGrowth(Real)
Advertising GDP
Source: Bureau of EconomicAnalysis, VSS, GE Capital
Overall Spend (cont.)
Overall ad spending and GDP have an 83%
correlation with each other.
Ad Spending Closely Correlated to GDP
Breakout of Consumer Spend on Media & Entertainment (Billions $, SAAR)
Media and entertainment expenditures have
been divided into eight broad categories.
Compared to 5 years ago, seven are up, with
CAGRs ranging from -1.8% for home video to
a high of 9.4% for periodicals. Overall,
spending has improved at a 5.3% CAGR over
the past 5 years.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
LiveEntertain.
Movies
HomeVideo
Music
Periodicals
Books
PayTV
InternetAccess
Revenues(Billions,SeasonallyAdjusted)
3Q09
3Q14
Source: Bureau of EconomicAnalysisand GE Capital analysis
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GE Capital
Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 4
86
74 74 74 73 73 69 71
-18%
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
0
20
40
60
80
100
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoYChange
AverageMonthlyVisitsperVisitor
Average Monthly Visits per Visitor YoY Change
Source: comScore
221 223 224 225 224
227 228 226
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
180
190
200
210
220
230
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
%ofPopulation
MonthlyUniqueVisitors(Millions)
Monthly Unique Users % of Population
Source: comScore
171.4
128.0
86.5
56.1
36.1 19.8 10.5 5.9
93.8
129.1
139.0
141.9
122.9
93.5
70.7
51.4 74.3
90.0
83.6
72.2
78.0
124.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MobileSubscribers(Millions)
2G 3G 3.5G 4G
Source: 451 Research
146.6 158.1 164.4
143.5 134.2
81.6
52.2
37.3
45.3 70.9
130.3
158.1 180.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MobileHandsetsinUse(Millions)
Advanced OS Smart Feature Basic Tier
Source: 451 Research
27.5 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.5
40.4 43.0 45.8 47.9 49.8
3.6 3.6 3.73.1
3.8
4.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ConsumerBroadbandSubs(Millions)
Fixed Wireless & Satellite FTTH Cable DSL
Source: SNL Kagan & GECA Estimates
Internet access continues migrating to wireline broadband and next-gen wireless. Service providers are evolving
customer plans to capitalize on the migration. Average monthly visits to Internet sites via a PC have declined in
recent years, cannibalized by mobile, although monthly unique visitors continue improving.
Consumer Broadband Subscribers
Consumer Mobile Handsets
Consumer Mobile Subscriptions
Monthly Unique Visitors
• Broadband customer connections increased 4.1% to 87.6 million
in 2013 and are expected to have increased an additional 3.3%
to 90.5 in 2014. Wireless broadband is becoming an increasingly
competitive substitute for DSL in rural markets and operators
have petitioned regulators for relief from using copper based
technology to offer carrier-of-last-resort services. AT&T’s FTTN
strategy is included as DSL, as last mile remains copper based.
• Consumer mobile phone handsets are expected to have
rebounded in 2014, after declining by roughly 2 million during
2013, even as customers migrated to faster networks. Operators
continue to alter pricing plans to become more data centric and
device agnostic to encourage overall usage increases.
• Average monthly visits to the top100 websites from a PC
continued to deteriorate YoY in 3Q14, likely attributable to
cannibalization from mobile Internet access. However, unique
visitors have continued to increase.
Average Monthly Visits
Internet Access and Use
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Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 5
32% 32% 33% 35% 38% 35% 32% 31%
2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 6% 10% 16%
40% 39%
45% 47% 46% 47% 46% 43%
18% 20% 13% 10% 10% 8% 7% 6%8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%ofInternetAdvertisingRevenues
Lead Gen. Class. & Directories Search Mobile, Email & Other Display
Source: Interactive AdvertisingBureauand
PricewaterhouseCoopers(PWC)
0.0%
-1.2%
63.3%
13.0% 11.4%
-15.6%-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
AOL eBay Facebook Google Microsoft Yahoo!
YoYGrowth
Source: IDC
9.3
10.3 9.6 10.3 10.6
12.1 11.4 11.7 12.4
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoYChange
QuarterlyAdRevenues(Billions)
Internet Ad Revenues YoY Change
Source: Interactive AdvertisingBureauand
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC)
Internet advertising grew 17% in 3Q14 to $12.4 billion, far outpacing overall domestic ad revenue growth, led by
growth at Facebook and growth in mobile advertising. E-Commerce revenues grew 16% in 3Q14, continuing to gain
market share on traditional retail. Mobile ad revenues are rapidly garnering increased market share of total spending
as consumer habits evolve.
Internet Ad Revenues
Net Advertising Revenues for Major Players (Excluding TAC)
Shifting Composition of Internet Advertising Revenues
3Q14 Net Advertising Growth for Major Players
E-Commerce Revenues
17.6%
16.1% 16.7%
18.6% 17.9%
15.7% 15.5% 15.8% 16.1%
4.3% 3.9%
3.3%
4.0% 4.0%
3.2%
1.7%
3.8% 3.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoyChange
E-Commerce Traditional Retail
Source: US Census Bureau, GE Capital analysis
E-Commerce Growth
57.0 59.9 61.9 64.8 67.3 69.2 71.5 75.1 78.1
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
%ofTotalRetail
E-CommerceRevenues(Billions)
E-Commerce % of Total Retail
Source: US Census Bureau, GE Capital analysis
Internet Monetization
0.22 0.27 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.30 0.24 0.24 0.24
0.74 0.79 0.79 0.82 0.81 0.85 0.82 0.83 0.80
0.55 0.59 0.52 0.68 0.79 1.01 0.98 1.11 1.29
3.80
4.18 4.04 4.07 4.23
4.75 4.59 4.60 4.78
0.64
0.62 0.64 0.64 0.64
0.75
0.60 0.53
0.54
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
NetAdRevenuesinUS(Billions)
Yahoo! Google Facebook eBay AOL
Source: IDC
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GE Capital
Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 6
850 843 877 917
961 939 904
856
799
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
200
400
600
800
1,000
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMEBITDA(Millions)
LTM EBITDA Margin
Source: Company filings forten mid-sizedadvertising-supported
public companies; GE Capital analysis
3,324 3,422 3,504 3,582 3,631 3,625 3,660 3,666 3,702
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMGrossProfits(Millions)
LTM Gross Profits Margin
Source: Company filingsforten mid-sizedadvertising-supported
public companies; GE Capital analysis
Based on analysis of mid-sized public
Internet companies’, LTM gross profits
continue improving, driven by double-digit
revenue increases as well as margin
improvement to over 64%. Internet
advertising revenues have surpassed
ad dollars generated by broadcast television
on an annual basis.
Aggregate LTM EBITDA has been under
pressure primarily due to declines at IAC
Interactive following mid-2013 policy
changes at Google with regard to search
monetization, which lead to lower CPC.
Internet Advertising LTM EBITDA
Internet Advertising LTM Gross Profits
LTM untaxed and unlevered FCF for the 10
publicly traded mid-sized operators was
$629 million in 3Q14, down again
sequentially. IAC Interactive was the largest
contributor to the sequential decline in LTM
EBITDA. Beginning in 3Q13 IAC has seen
revenue shortfalls which were fueled by
search and monetization algorithm changes
at Google that impacted revenue in their
Search & Applications segment.
Internet Advertising LTM EBITDA – LTM Capital Expenditures
686 683 693 726 764 746 729
681
629
8%
10%
12%
14%
100
300
500
700
900
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMEBITDA-Capex(Millions)
LTM EBITDA - CAPEX Margin
Source: Company filingsforten mid-sizedadvertising-supported
public companies; GE Capital analysis
Internet Advertising EBITDA Remains Under Pressure
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Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 7
2.1
0.9
2.1
0.7
3.0
1.0 1.0
0.9
6.0x
9.0x
12.0x
15.0x
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD-
Sept 14
AverageCFMultiple
M&ADealVoume(Billions)
Deal Volume Average CF Multiple
Source: SNL
205 206
179
222
244 244
207
242
271
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
%ofTerrestrialRadioREvenues
QuarterlyRevenues(Millions)
Digtial Revenues % of Terrestrial Radio Revenues
Source: Radio AdvertisingBureau
4.2 4.3
3.5
4.4 4.3 4.3
3.5
4.3 4.3
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoYGrowth
QuarterlyRevenues(Billions)
Radio Industry Revenues YoY Change
Source: RadioAdvertisingBureau
Radio industry revenues continue to remain essentially flat, according to the Radio Advertising Bureau, reflecting
continued underperformance annually against the broader advertising industry. Digital continues to take a larger
share of radio revenue but remains a small portion of total revenue with heightened concerns about competitive
pressures from Internet radio.
Radio Industry Revenues
Digital Revenues
M&A Deal Volume
• Radio industry revenues were essentially flat for 2013 and
remained there for the majority of 2014. Digital revenues
continue to improve Y/Y at a brisk pace.
• Following a resurgence of deal activity in 2011, with $3 billion
of total deal volume (most notably Cumulus Media’s $2.3
billion purchase of Citadel Broadcasting), deal activity has
returned to a more modest pace for the past few years,
closer to $1 billion.
Radio Broadcasting
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Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 8
605
539 533 545 534 513 512 493 463
20%
24%
28%
32%
36%
40%
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMEBITDA(Millions)
LTM EBITDA Margin
Source: Company filingsforBeasley Broadcast, Cumulus, Radio One,
Salem Communications, SagaCommunications; GE Capital analyses
761
702 692 696 687 723 728 714 682
35%
38%
41%
44%
47%
50%
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMGrossProfits(Millions))
LTM Gross Profits Margin
Source: Company filingsforBeasley Broadcast, Cumulus, Radio One, Salem
Communications, SagaCommunications; GE Capital analyses
575
508 503 512 504 475 472 448 415
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMEBITDA-Capex(Millions)
LTM EBITDA - CAPEX Margin
Source: Company filingsforBeasley Broadcast, Cumulus, RadioOne, Salem
Communications, Saga Communications; GE Capital analyses
Based on analysis of select public radio
companies’ financial filings, LTM gross profits
remained roughly flat in 2013 as the
boost from the auto ad spending recovery
and two large acquisitions were completed.
Gross profit declines, which began in 4Q13
are largely attributed to Cumulus’ divestiture
of nearly 70 radio stations to Townsquare
Media.
LTM EBITDA for public radio companies has
been a bit choppy, however the majority of
the decline are related to Cumulus
divestitures which have negatively impacted
reported LTM EBITDA.
LTM Radio EBITDA
LTM Radio Gross Profits
LTM Radio EBITDA – LTM Capital Expenditures
Radio Broadcasting Profits
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Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 9
2.8
8.4
9.9
0.6 0.6
0.2
1.2
2.0
11.4
7.0
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
0
3
6
9
12
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD-
Sept
14
AverageCFMultiple
M&ADealVoume(Billions)
Deal Volume Average CF Multiple
Source: SNL
36.7%
56.0%
26.6% 24.4%
22.5%
9.9%
31.0% 30.2%
36.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoYGrowth
Source: Earningstranscripts for
Nexstar, Sinclair, LIN, Gray
25.0%
7.0%
5.4%
4.0% 4.3%
5.7%
4.0% 4.0%
-3.5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoYGrowth
Auto Advertising
Source: SNL, Earningstranscripts for Nexstar, Sinclair, LIN
and Gray
30.0%
34.0%
38.0%
40.0% 40.1%
49.3%
39.9%
37.5% 38.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoYGrowth
Source: SNL, GE Capital estimate
Television broadcasting revenue continued to grow at a modest pace in 3Q14, as numerous acquisitions and
retransmission revenue continue to boosts results. Organic ad revenue growth is likely in the low single digits. Secular
growth of retransmission fees continues unabated. Auto ad revenue growth indicated YoY declines in 3Q. Declining
audiences and changing viewer habits pose a threat to the business model and M&A has notably increased.
Television Broadcasting Revenue Growth
Retransmission Fee Growth
Automotive Advertising Growth
M&A Deal Volume
• Tracked broadcast television stations reported revenue
improvement in 3Q14 but low organic ad revenue growth
has been boosted by robust retransmission revenue and
M&A activity. Essentially all of Y/Y growth is due to
acquisitions, primarily by Sinclair. Retransmission fees and
digital have also been a large contributor to improvement. If
we attempt to back out acquired growth, we estimate organic
growth close to the 1-2% range.
• Auto advertising growth was down 3.5% in 3Q14, as auto ad
spending has been pared back across several mediums
including radio and TV.
Television Broadcasting Stations
Retransmission Fee Projected Growth
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Growth
RetranmissionRevenue(Millions)
Retransmission Fees Growth Rate
Source: SNLKagan, GE Capital Analysis
•Retransmission fees grew 38.8% in 3Q14. Retransmission fees
continue to increase at significant rates as broadcasters seek
additional broadcast rights for content. GECA industry research
expects distributors to seek increased surcharges for higher cost
content to recoup some expenses even as they prepare for an
increasingly OTT world.
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GE Capital
Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 10
781
953 974 995 983
919
969
1,023
1,126
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMEBITDA(Millions)
LTM EBITDA Margin
Source: Company filingsforNexstar Broadcast, SinclairBroadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE
Capital analysis
673
836 853 861 845
781
824
873
951
26%
30%
34%
38%
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMEBITDA-CapitalExpenditures(Millions)
LTM EBITDA - CAPEX
Margin
Source: Company filingsforNexstar Broadcast, SinclairBroadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE
Capital analysis
1,297
1,515 1,586 1,654 1,700 1,684 1,785 1,890
2,037
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMGrossProfits(Millions)
LTM Gross Profits Margin
Source: Company filingsforNexstar Broadcast, SinclairBroadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE
Capital analysis
Based on our analysis of public TV station
owners’ financial filings, LTM gross profits
improved 7.8% sequentially in Q3, driven by
retransmission increases around renewals.
LTM gross profit increased 20% over Q3
2013, with the increase primarily related to
acquisitions in 2013 and retransmission fee
increases.
LTM EBITDA for public TV stations owners
increased 10% sequentially to $1.126 billion
in 3Q14 as the comparison period gets
easier and high margin incremental revenue
continues to flow to the cash flow line.
TV Broadcasting Stations’ EBITDA
TV Broadcasting Stations’ Gross Profits
LTM EBITDA less capital expenditures (our
proxy measure for untaxed and unlevered
FCF) continued to rebound, up 12.5% year
over year.
TV Broadcasting Stations’ EBITDA – Capital Expenditures
Television Broadcasting Station Profits
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Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 11
$350
$370
$390
$410
$430
$450
$470
$490
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Quarterly earnings
presentations from Lamar Advertising
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Quarterly earnings
presentations from Lamar Advertising
45%
60%
75%
90%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Bulletins Posters
Source: Quarterly earnings
presentationsfrom Lamar Advertising
1.6 1.6 1.7
2.2
1.6 1.6 1.5
2.2
1.6
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
YoYGrowth
QuarterlyRevenues(Billions)
Outdoor Industry Revenues YoY Change
Source: Outdoor Advertising
Associationof America
3Q14 represented another difficult quarter for the outdoor industry, as changing contract terms and increased digital
by national advertisers impact revenue. While occupancy levels for posters and bulletins at Lamar were slightly better
YoY, poster pricing improved but bulletin pricing was closer to 2009 levels.
Outdoor Industry Revenues
Pricing for Posters
Occupancy Levels
Pricing for Bulletins
• Lamar’s quarterly conference call indicated occupancy levels
for bulletins and posters were up slightly Y/Y but bulletin
pricing remains subdued.
• Revenues from outdoor industry public companies
including Lamar, Clear Channel Outdoor and Outdoor
Media (previously CBS Outdoor) indicate a 2.5% Y/Y
revenue increase in 3Q. Clear Channel has been impacted
by offline digital assets as well as national advertisers
beginning to push shorter more –flexible contract terms
similar to advertising on social media.
Outdoor
Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas
© 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
GE Capital
Winter 2014-2015
Industry Research Update: Media 12
1,223 1,233
1,300 1,307 1,290 1,290 1,265 1,247
15%
20%
25%
30%
500
650
800
950
1,100
1,250
1,400
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMEBITDA-CapitalExpenditures(Millions)
LTM EBITDA - CAPEX Margin
Source: Company filingsfor Clear Channel Outdoor, Lamar Advertising,
Outdoor Media; GE Capital analysis
1,643 1,640 1,661 1,657 1,655 1,653 1,648 1,646
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Margin
LTMEBITDA(Millions)
LTM EBITDA Margin
Source: Company filingsforClearChannel Outdoor, Lamar Advertising, Outdoor
Media; GE Capital analysis
Based on public outdoor companies’
financial filings, LTM EBITDA was down
slightly to the same period last year at
$1.646 billion.
LTM EBITDA less capital expenditures (our
proxy for unlevered, pre-tax FCF) declined
slightly, based on lower EBITDA and higher
capex, to $1.247 billion.
Outdoor LTM EBITDA – Capital Expenditures
Outdoor LTM EBITDA
Outdoor Advertising Profits
Ben Abramovitz, CFA
Telecommunications & Media
Ben.Abramovitz@ge.com
646-428-7129
GE Capital
Industry Research Contact
GE Capital is an extension of GE’s rich heritage of building and supporting growth. Investing in the sectors we know
best, we can provide more than just financing: We bring insight, knowledge and expertise to every loan. And as a
result, businesses that finance with GE Capital benefit from the global know-how and expertise of GE.
gecapital.com
This publication provides general information and should not be used or taken as business, financial, tax, accounting,
legal or other advice. It has been prepared without regard to the circumstances and objectives of anyone who may
review it; therefore, you should not rely on this publication in place of expert advice or the exercise of your independent
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Media_ IRM_Update

  • 1. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 1 • The overall domestic ad spend growth rate remained strong in 3Q although the aggregate growth rate for consumer spending on media & entertainment declined to less than 1%, primarily due to the decline in expenditures on Internet access. • Internet advertising continues to grow at a double-digit pace, far outpacing growth of the broader ad sector, driven by rising mobile advertising. • Monthly unique visitors to Internet sites, from PCs, remains higher, despite increasing mobile access capturing additional traffic and negatively impacting monthly average visits from a PC. • Radio broadcasters’ revenues remain effectively flat in the past few years while digital revenues continued to grow double digit, but longer term growth is threatened by growing Internet substitutes. • Tracked TV broadcasters’ revenues grew primarily driven by strong M&A activity and retransmission fees. Organic ad growth appears to be closer to flat to very low single digit. • Disclosures from public companies indicated Y/Y revenue in outdoor advertising rose 2.5%. Lamar reported occupancy levels for bulletins and posters were up slightly Y/Y but bulletin pricing remains lower. Key Developments Overall Spend Organic Domestic Growth for Ad Agency Holding Companies Organic domestic growth rates of the major ad agency holding companies in the US grew by a median of 4.7% in 3Q14, marking a third quarter of improvement in the growth rate, driven by high single digit US organic growth at both Omnicom and Interpublic. Advertising spending has historically had a high correlation to overall GDP growth.3.1% 3.7% 0.9% 2.7% 4.5% 3.2% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 OrganicRevenueGrowth Source: Quarterly earnings presentations from Havas, Interpublic Group, Omnicom, PublicisandWPP; GE Capital analysis Industry Research Update Media
  • 2. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 2 33.2 32.8 44.3 21.6 42.7 15.5 6.0 9.7 6.6 35.1 34.4 43.3 19.9 40.2 15.3 4.9 9.5 7.0 36.6 36.7 42.2 18.9 44.0 15.4 4.1 9.2 7.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Internet CableTV DirectMail News. BcastTV Radio YellowPgs Magazines Outdoor Revenues(Billions) 2012 2013 2014 Source: SNL 5.8% 7.6% 8.1% 6.9% 7.1% 5.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoYGrowth Source: Bureau of EconomicAnalysis & GE Capital analysis Overall Spend (cont.) Cable TV and Internet advertising continue to grow (with mobile now boosting Internet ad growth), while TV broadcasters benefitted in 2012 from Olympic and political spending and direct mail and radio have held up fairly well in the short term despite longer-term forecasts that expect declines. Based upon data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumers’ media and entertainment expenditures, on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, totaled $407 billion in 3Q14, up less than .5% from 1Q13. The decline in annual growth during the past several quarters has been solely related to PCE declines in Internet access spending. Aggregate Growth for Consumer Spending on Media & Entertainment Breakout of Ad Spend
  • 3. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 3 -15% -5% 5% 15% 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 YoYGrowth(Real) Advertising GDP Source: Bureau of EconomicAnalysis, VSS, GE Capital Overall Spend (cont.) Overall ad spending and GDP have an 83% correlation with each other. Ad Spending Closely Correlated to GDP Breakout of Consumer Spend on Media & Entertainment (Billions $, SAAR) Media and entertainment expenditures have been divided into eight broad categories. Compared to 5 years ago, seven are up, with CAGRs ranging from -1.8% for home video to a high of 9.4% for periodicals. Overall, spending has improved at a 5.3% CAGR over the past 5 years. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 LiveEntertain. Movies HomeVideo Music Periodicals Books PayTV InternetAccess Revenues(Billions,SeasonallyAdjusted) 3Q09 3Q14 Source: Bureau of EconomicAnalysisand GE Capital analysis
  • 4. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 4 86 74 74 74 73 73 69 71 -18% -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 0 20 40 60 80 100 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoYChange AverageMonthlyVisitsperVisitor Average Monthly Visits per Visitor YoY Change Source: comScore 221 223 224 225 224 227 228 226 68% 69% 70% 71% 72% 180 190 200 210 220 230 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 %ofPopulation MonthlyUniqueVisitors(Millions) Monthly Unique Users % of Population Source: comScore 171.4 128.0 86.5 56.1 36.1 19.8 10.5 5.9 93.8 129.1 139.0 141.9 122.9 93.5 70.7 51.4 74.3 90.0 83.6 72.2 78.0 124.0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MobileSubscribers(Millions) 2G 3G 3.5G 4G Source: 451 Research 146.6 158.1 164.4 143.5 134.2 81.6 52.2 37.3 45.3 70.9 130.3 158.1 180.8 0 50 100 150 200 250 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MobileHandsetsinUse(Millions) Advanced OS Smart Feature Basic Tier Source: 451 Research 27.5 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.5 40.4 43.0 45.8 47.9 49.8 3.6 3.6 3.73.1 3.8 4.6 0 20 40 60 80 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ConsumerBroadbandSubs(Millions) Fixed Wireless & Satellite FTTH Cable DSL Source: SNL Kagan & GECA Estimates Internet access continues migrating to wireline broadband and next-gen wireless. Service providers are evolving customer plans to capitalize on the migration. Average monthly visits to Internet sites via a PC have declined in recent years, cannibalized by mobile, although monthly unique visitors continue improving. Consumer Broadband Subscribers Consumer Mobile Handsets Consumer Mobile Subscriptions Monthly Unique Visitors • Broadband customer connections increased 4.1% to 87.6 million in 2013 and are expected to have increased an additional 3.3% to 90.5 in 2014. Wireless broadband is becoming an increasingly competitive substitute for DSL in rural markets and operators have petitioned regulators for relief from using copper based technology to offer carrier-of-last-resort services. AT&T’s FTTN strategy is included as DSL, as last mile remains copper based. • Consumer mobile phone handsets are expected to have rebounded in 2014, after declining by roughly 2 million during 2013, even as customers migrated to faster networks. Operators continue to alter pricing plans to become more data centric and device agnostic to encourage overall usage increases. • Average monthly visits to the top100 websites from a PC continued to deteriorate YoY in 3Q14, likely attributable to cannibalization from mobile Internet access. However, unique visitors have continued to increase. Average Monthly Visits Internet Access and Use
  • 5. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 5 32% 32% 33% 35% 38% 35% 32% 31% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 6% 10% 16% 40% 39% 45% 47% 46% 47% 46% 43% 18% 20% 13% 10% 10% 8% 7% 6%8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 %ofInternetAdvertisingRevenues Lead Gen. Class. & Directories Search Mobile, Email & Other Display Source: Interactive AdvertisingBureauand PricewaterhouseCoopers(PWC) 0.0% -1.2% 63.3% 13.0% 11.4% -15.6%-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% AOL eBay Facebook Google Microsoft Yahoo! YoYGrowth Source: IDC 9.3 10.3 9.6 10.3 10.6 12.1 11.4 11.7 12.4 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoYChange QuarterlyAdRevenues(Billions) Internet Ad Revenues YoY Change Source: Interactive AdvertisingBureauand PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) Internet advertising grew 17% in 3Q14 to $12.4 billion, far outpacing overall domestic ad revenue growth, led by growth at Facebook and growth in mobile advertising. E-Commerce revenues grew 16% in 3Q14, continuing to gain market share on traditional retail. Mobile ad revenues are rapidly garnering increased market share of total spending as consumer habits evolve. Internet Ad Revenues Net Advertising Revenues for Major Players (Excluding TAC) Shifting Composition of Internet Advertising Revenues 3Q14 Net Advertising Growth for Major Players E-Commerce Revenues 17.6% 16.1% 16.7% 18.6% 17.9% 15.7% 15.5% 15.8% 16.1% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3% 4.0% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 3.8% 3.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoyChange E-Commerce Traditional Retail Source: US Census Bureau, GE Capital analysis E-Commerce Growth 57.0 59.9 61.9 64.8 67.3 69.2 71.5 75.1 78.1 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 %ofTotalRetail E-CommerceRevenues(Billions) E-Commerce % of Total Retail Source: US Census Bureau, GE Capital analysis Internet Monetization 0.22 0.27 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.30 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.74 0.79 0.79 0.82 0.81 0.85 0.82 0.83 0.80 0.55 0.59 0.52 0.68 0.79 1.01 0.98 1.11 1.29 3.80 4.18 4.04 4.07 4.23 4.75 4.59 4.60 4.78 0.64 0.62 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.75 0.60 0.53 0.54 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 NetAdRevenuesinUS(Billions) Yahoo! Google Facebook eBay AOL Source: IDC
  • 6. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 6 850 843 877 917 961 939 904 856 799 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 200 400 600 800 1,000 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMEBITDA(Millions) LTM EBITDA Margin Source: Company filings forten mid-sizedadvertising-supported public companies; GE Capital analysis 3,324 3,422 3,504 3,582 3,631 3,625 3,660 3,666 3,702 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMGrossProfits(Millions) LTM Gross Profits Margin Source: Company filingsforten mid-sizedadvertising-supported public companies; GE Capital analysis Based on analysis of mid-sized public Internet companies’, LTM gross profits continue improving, driven by double-digit revenue increases as well as margin improvement to over 64%. Internet advertising revenues have surpassed ad dollars generated by broadcast television on an annual basis. Aggregate LTM EBITDA has been under pressure primarily due to declines at IAC Interactive following mid-2013 policy changes at Google with regard to search monetization, which lead to lower CPC. Internet Advertising LTM EBITDA Internet Advertising LTM Gross Profits LTM untaxed and unlevered FCF for the 10 publicly traded mid-sized operators was $629 million in 3Q14, down again sequentially. IAC Interactive was the largest contributor to the sequential decline in LTM EBITDA. Beginning in 3Q13 IAC has seen revenue shortfalls which were fueled by search and monetization algorithm changes at Google that impacted revenue in their Search & Applications segment. Internet Advertising LTM EBITDA – LTM Capital Expenditures 686 683 693 726 764 746 729 681 629 8% 10% 12% 14% 100 300 500 700 900 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMEBITDA-Capex(Millions) LTM EBITDA - CAPEX Margin Source: Company filingsforten mid-sizedadvertising-supported public companies; GE Capital analysis Internet Advertising EBITDA Remains Under Pressure
  • 7. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 7 2.1 0.9 2.1 0.7 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 6.0x 9.0x 12.0x 15.0x 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD- Sept 14 AverageCFMultiple M&ADealVoume(Billions) Deal Volume Average CF Multiple Source: SNL 205 206 179 222 244 244 207 242 271 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 %ofTerrestrialRadioREvenues QuarterlyRevenues(Millions) Digtial Revenues % of Terrestrial Radio Revenues Source: Radio AdvertisingBureau 4.2 4.3 3.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.5 4.3 4.3 -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoYGrowth QuarterlyRevenues(Billions) Radio Industry Revenues YoY Change Source: RadioAdvertisingBureau Radio industry revenues continue to remain essentially flat, according to the Radio Advertising Bureau, reflecting continued underperformance annually against the broader advertising industry. Digital continues to take a larger share of radio revenue but remains a small portion of total revenue with heightened concerns about competitive pressures from Internet radio. Radio Industry Revenues Digital Revenues M&A Deal Volume • Radio industry revenues were essentially flat for 2013 and remained there for the majority of 2014. Digital revenues continue to improve Y/Y at a brisk pace. • Following a resurgence of deal activity in 2011, with $3 billion of total deal volume (most notably Cumulus Media’s $2.3 billion purchase of Citadel Broadcasting), deal activity has returned to a more modest pace for the past few years, closer to $1 billion. Radio Broadcasting
  • 8. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 8 605 539 533 545 534 513 512 493 463 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMEBITDA(Millions) LTM EBITDA Margin Source: Company filingsforBeasley Broadcast, Cumulus, Radio One, Salem Communications, SagaCommunications; GE Capital analyses 761 702 692 696 687 723 728 714 682 35% 38% 41% 44% 47% 50% 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMGrossProfits(Millions)) LTM Gross Profits Margin Source: Company filingsforBeasley Broadcast, Cumulus, Radio One, Salem Communications, SagaCommunications; GE Capital analyses 575 508 503 512 504 475 472 448 415 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMEBITDA-Capex(Millions) LTM EBITDA - CAPEX Margin Source: Company filingsforBeasley Broadcast, Cumulus, RadioOne, Salem Communications, Saga Communications; GE Capital analyses Based on analysis of select public radio companies’ financial filings, LTM gross profits remained roughly flat in 2013 as the boost from the auto ad spending recovery and two large acquisitions were completed. Gross profit declines, which began in 4Q13 are largely attributed to Cumulus’ divestiture of nearly 70 radio stations to Townsquare Media. LTM EBITDA for public radio companies has been a bit choppy, however the majority of the decline are related to Cumulus divestitures which have negatively impacted reported LTM EBITDA. LTM Radio EBITDA LTM Radio Gross Profits LTM Radio EBITDA – LTM Capital Expenditures Radio Broadcasting Profits
  • 9. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 9 2.8 8.4 9.9 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.2 2.0 11.4 7.0 0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 0 3 6 9 12 15 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD- Sept 14 AverageCFMultiple M&ADealVoume(Billions) Deal Volume Average CF Multiple Source: SNL 36.7% 56.0% 26.6% 24.4% 22.5% 9.9% 31.0% 30.2% 36.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoYGrowth Source: Earningstranscripts for Nexstar, Sinclair, LIN, Gray 25.0% 7.0% 5.4% 4.0% 4.3% 5.7% 4.0% 4.0% -3.5% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoYGrowth Auto Advertising Source: SNL, Earningstranscripts for Nexstar, Sinclair, LIN and Gray 30.0% 34.0% 38.0% 40.0% 40.1% 49.3% 39.9% 37.5% 38.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoYGrowth Source: SNL, GE Capital estimate Television broadcasting revenue continued to grow at a modest pace in 3Q14, as numerous acquisitions and retransmission revenue continue to boosts results. Organic ad revenue growth is likely in the low single digits. Secular growth of retransmission fees continues unabated. Auto ad revenue growth indicated YoY declines in 3Q. Declining audiences and changing viewer habits pose a threat to the business model and M&A has notably increased. Television Broadcasting Revenue Growth Retransmission Fee Growth Automotive Advertising Growth M&A Deal Volume • Tracked broadcast television stations reported revenue improvement in 3Q14 but low organic ad revenue growth has been boosted by robust retransmission revenue and M&A activity. Essentially all of Y/Y growth is due to acquisitions, primarily by Sinclair. Retransmission fees and digital have also been a large contributor to improvement. If we attempt to back out acquired growth, we estimate organic growth close to the 1-2% range. • Auto advertising growth was down 3.5% in 3Q14, as auto ad spending has been pared back across several mediums including radio and TV. Television Broadcasting Stations Retransmission Fee Projected Growth 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Growth RetranmissionRevenue(Millions) Retransmission Fees Growth Rate Source: SNLKagan, GE Capital Analysis •Retransmission fees grew 38.8% in 3Q14. Retransmission fees continue to increase at significant rates as broadcasters seek additional broadcast rights for content. GECA industry research expects distributors to seek increased surcharges for higher cost content to recoup some expenses even as they prepare for an increasingly OTT world.
  • 10. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 10 781 953 974 995 983 919 969 1,023 1,126 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMEBITDA(Millions) LTM EBITDA Margin Source: Company filingsforNexstar Broadcast, SinclairBroadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE Capital analysis 673 836 853 861 845 781 824 873 951 26% 30% 34% 38% 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMEBITDA-CapitalExpenditures(Millions) LTM EBITDA - CAPEX Margin Source: Company filingsforNexstar Broadcast, SinclairBroadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE Capital analysis 1,297 1,515 1,586 1,654 1,700 1,684 1,785 1,890 2,037 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,400 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMGrossProfits(Millions) LTM Gross Profits Margin Source: Company filingsforNexstar Broadcast, SinclairBroadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE Capital analysis Based on our analysis of public TV station owners’ financial filings, LTM gross profits improved 7.8% sequentially in Q3, driven by retransmission increases around renewals. LTM gross profit increased 20% over Q3 2013, with the increase primarily related to acquisitions in 2013 and retransmission fee increases. LTM EBITDA for public TV stations owners increased 10% sequentially to $1.126 billion in 3Q14 as the comparison period gets easier and high margin incremental revenue continues to flow to the cash flow line. TV Broadcasting Stations’ EBITDA TV Broadcasting Stations’ Gross Profits LTM EBITDA less capital expenditures (our proxy measure for untaxed and unlevered FCF) continued to rebound, up 12.5% year over year. TV Broadcasting Stations’ EBITDA – Capital Expenditures Television Broadcasting Station Profits
  • 11. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 11 $350 $370 $390 $410 $430 $450 $470 $490 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Quarterly earnings presentations from Lamar Advertising $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 $1,150 $1,200 $1,250 $1,300 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Quarterly earnings presentations from Lamar Advertising 45% 60% 75% 90% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Bulletins Posters Source: Quarterly earnings presentationsfrom Lamar Advertising 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.2 1.6 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 YoYGrowth QuarterlyRevenues(Billions) Outdoor Industry Revenues YoY Change Source: Outdoor Advertising Associationof America 3Q14 represented another difficult quarter for the outdoor industry, as changing contract terms and increased digital by national advertisers impact revenue. While occupancy levels for posters and bulletins at Lamar were slightly better YoY, poster pricing improved but bulletin pricing was closer to 2009 levels. Outdoor Industry Revenues Pricing for Posters Occupancy Levels Pricing for Bulletins • Lamar’s quarterly conference call indicated occupancy levels for bulletins and posters were up slightly Y/Y but bulletin pricing remains subdued. • Revenues from outdoor industry public companies including Lamar, Clear Channel Outdoor and Outdoor Media (previously CBS Outdoor) indicate a 2.5% Y/Y revenue increase in 3Q. Clear Channel has been impacted by offline digital assets as well as national advertisers beginning to push shorter more –flexible contract terms similar to advertising on social media. Outdoor
  • 12. Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas © 2014 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. GE Capital Winter 2014-2015 Industry Research Update: Media 12 1,223 1,233 1,300 1,307 1,290 1,290 1,265 1,247 15% 20% 25% 30% 500 650 800 950 1,100 1,250 1,400 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMEBITDA-CapitalExpenditures(Millions) LTM EBITDA - CAPEX Margin Source: Company filingsfor Clear Channel Outdoor, Lamar Advertising, Outdoor Media; GE Capital analysis 1,643 1,640 1,661 1,657 1,655 1,653 1,648 1,646 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Margin LTMEBITDA(Millions) LTM EBITDA Margin Source: Company filingsforClearChannel Outdoor, Lamar Advertising, Outdoor Media; GE Capital analysis Based on public outdoor companies’ financial filings, LTM EBITDA was down slightly to the same period last year at $1.646 billion. LTM EBITDA less capital expenditures (our proxy for unlevered, pre-tax FCF) declined slightly, based on lower EBITDA and higher capex, to $1.247 billion. Outdoor LTM EBITDA – Capital Expenditures Outdoor LTM EBITDA Outdoor Advertising Profits Ben Abramovitz, CFA Telecommunications & Media Ben.Abramovitz@ge.com 646-428-7129 GE Capital Industry Research Contact GE Capital is an extension of GE’s rich heritage of building and supporting growth. Investing in the sectors we know best, we can provide more than just financing: We bring insight, knowledge and expertise to every loan. And as a result, businesses that finance with GE Capital benefit from the global know-how and expertise of GE. gecapital.com This publication provides general information and should not be used or taken as business, financial, tax, accounting, legal or other advice. It has been prepared without regard to the circumstances and objectives of anyone who may review it; therefore, you should not rely on this publication in place of expert advice or the exercise of your independent judgment. The views expressed in this publication reflect those of the authors and contributors and not necessarily the views of General Electric Capital Corporation or any of its affiliates (together, “GE”). GE does not guarantee that the information contained in this publication is reliable, accurate, complete or current, and GE assumes no responsibility to update or amend the publication. GE makes no representation or warranties of any kind whatsoever regarding the contents of this publication, and accepts no liability of any kind for any loss or harm arising from the use of the information contained in this publication. “GE,” “General Electric Company,” “General Electric,” “General Electric Capital Corporation,” the GE Logo, and various other marks and logos used in this publication are registered trademarks, trade names and service marks of General Electric Company. You may not use, reproduce, or redistribute this publication, any part of this publication, or any trademark or trade name without the written permission of GE. Disclaimer: Although General Electric Capital Corporation (“GE”) believes that the information contained in this newsletter has been obtained from and is based upon sources GE believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. GE makes no representation or warranties of any kind whatsoever in respect of such information. GE accepts no liability of any kind for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this newsletter. This newsletter is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of your independent judgment or legal advice.