Mauldin unsustainability wcc
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This document is a presentation by John Mauldin on unsustainability and transition. It discusses how things that are unsustainable will change. It identifies areas of current unsustainability as including high debt levels, unbalanced government entitlement programs, and pension and healthcare costs in countries like Japan, Europe, and the US. It advocates investing in areas that are sustainable, like technologies that create abundance at lower costs and serve basic human needs in adaptable ways. The presentation covers economic theories around sustainability and transitioning to a new paradigm.
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The fund returned -10.8% in February, underperforming its benchmark. The short equity book and long equity book both made negative contributions after currency hedging. Within the short book, negative contributions came from Anglo American, Las Vegas Sands, and Royal Dutch Shell. Within the long book, negative contributions came from Nokia, Sky, and Bank of America. Elsewhere, active currencies returned -0.4% while government bonds and commodities returned +0.1% and +1.4% respectively. The manager remains convinced markets will continue to struggle without credit expansion and believes central banks have limited options to address slowing growth and falling productivity.
Q1 2016-credit third avenue
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
Oei dec-15
The document discusses the performance of the Odey European Inc fund in December 2015. It summarizes the positive and negative contributions from various long and short equity positions. It then analyzes economic and market conditions, including concerns about bubbles in China, falling oil prices, and central banks' responses to risky lending behaviors through interest rate policies. The document warns that markets may be fragile given high valuations and falling corporate profits, and that a significant market correction is possible in the coming year.
Oei dec-15
The document discusses the performance of the Odey European Inc fund in December 2015. It summarizes the positive and negative contributions from various long and short equity positions. It then analyzes economic and market conditions, including concerns about bubbles in China, falling oil prices, and central banks' responses to risky lending behaviors through interest rate policies. The document warns that markets may be fragile given high valuations and falling corporate profits, and that a significant market correction is possible in the coming year.
Swan aug-15
The fund returned +6.6% in August compared to -8.3% for the MSCI Europe index. Positive performance came from holdings in consumer discretionary (+4.2%), energy (+1.4%), and materials (+0.9%). Las Vegas Sands (+1.3%) and Sands China (+0.9%) were top performers, while Sky (-0.8%) and LM Ericsson Telefon (-0.4%) underperformed. The manager believes developed markets face earnings risk with high valuations and sees further global economic adjustments ahead, rather than the crisis being over, as China addresses debt, competitiveness and slowing growth issues in a deflationary environment.
Gdc FI-mayo-2015
El documento resume la evolución del fondo Gestión del Ciclo FI en mayo de 2015. Retrocedió un -0,22% en mayo debido a las caídas generalizadas en casi todos los activos. Sin embargo, su rentabilidad acumulada en 2015 sigue siendo del +5,65%, por encima de la media de su categoría. La liquidez, posiciones inversas en deuda alemana y estadounidense, y el oro ayudaron a limitar las pérdidas en mayo.
Oei apr-15
The fund lost money significantly in April (-19.3%) due to losses from its long USD position (-11.6%), short equity book (-7%), and Australian government bond positions (-0.9%). Positive individual stock positions such as Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Kellogg Company were outweighed by losses from stocks like Seadrill Ltd. and BG Group Plc. The document discusses challenges faced by the fund, changes made to reduce risk, and the manager's views on current market conditions and outlook.
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3
Bill Gross provides a lengthy outlook on the current state of investment markets and the economy. He argues that after 35 years, the great bull market that began in 1981 is showing signs of ending, with asset prices reaching unsustainable levels. While declines may not be imminent, future returns will likely be low. Investors should recognize the current "sense of an ending" and shift to more defensive strategies focusing on income rather than capital gains to better weather the changing environment.
Resultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembre
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Bass cognitive dissonance
This document provides a summary of major systemic risks in the global economy as seen by the author. It discusses how systemic risk was transferred from the private sector to governments and how investors are engaging in "cognitive dissonance" by acknowledging past excesses but preventing rational deleveraging. The author outlines several fault lines including aggressive monetary policies, the risks of zero interest rate policies, the limits of deficit spending, and debt levels around the world. While opportunities still exist, the author advises exercising caution given expected volatility in 2011.
Greif inc (spruce point capital)
- Greif, Inc. (GEF) has engaged in a large acquisition spree over the past decade, spending over $1.2 billion to acquire 40 companies. However, GEF has provided limited disclosure to investors about these acquisitions.
- GEF appears to have obfuscated and revised the financial performance and costs of its acquisitions. In one example, it increased the reported purchase price of 2010 acquisitions by $98 million through a misleading presentation.
- With high acquisition debt on its balance sheet, GEF may be vulnerable in a weaker economic environment. It derives around 55% of sales from foreign markets, exposing it to currency risks from a stronger US dollar.
Third point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoi
This letter summarizes Third Point LLC's investment results and outlook for 2015. In 2014, Third Point achieved mid-single digit returns due to poor performance during market volatility and prematurely exiting some positions. Already in 2015, markets have been highly volatile. Third Point is focusing on companies with strong cash flows and consistent growth, and looking to take advantage of market dislocations. The letter discusses two of Third Point's largest equity positions - Amgen and Fanuc.
Oei 2014-12
The document summarizes the performance of the Odey European fund for December 2014. The fund returned +11.7% for the month compared to the MSCI Europe return of -1.4%. Active currency positions contributed significantly to returns, particularly positions in AUD/USD and USD/ZAR. Short equity positions also contributed positively, while long equity positions made a smaller but still significant contribution. The manager believes a slowdown in the Chinese economy and falling commodity prices will negatively impact commodity-producing economies and their trading partners, leading to a global recession. Central banks have limited ability to counter this downturn through monetary policy. The manager remains short-biased on equities and bearish on commodity-related sectors and EM
Skagen global noviembre 14
- The SKAGEN Global fund underperformed its benchmark index in November, rising 1.1% compared to the index's 2.4% gain. Weak Russian and oil-related stocks contributed to the underperformance.
- Year-to-date the fund has gained 7.2%, lagging the benchmark index by 10.4%.
- Samsung Electronics was the top positive contributor in November while Weatherford was the largest detractor.
- The fund managers continued reducing smaller positions and increasing the concentration of larger holdings in the top 10.
Lessons of oil by howard marks
- The document discusses lessons that can be learned from recent fluctuations in oil prices, specifically how few predicted the large decline in prices.
- It notes that consensus forecasts often only make small incremental changes rather than considering order-of-magnitude shifts, and few foresaw how low oil could fall.
- The author outlines various direct and indirect consequences of lower oil prices across many industries and economies to illustrate how difficult it is to anticipate all potential impacts and ramifications.
Odey absolute return octubre 2014
The fund returned 2.4% in October, outperforming the MSCI World Index which returned 2%. Long positions positively contributed, notably in Plus500, Regus, and Ethan Allen. Short positions in 10-year Treasury futures and Australian banks detracted from performance. Overall, the fund has outperformed its benchmark since inception with a net annualized return of 21.3% compared to 12.6% for the index.
Odey absolute return octubre 2014
The fund returned 2.4% in October, outperforming the MSCI World Index which returned 2%. Long positions positively contributed, notably in Plus500, Regus, and Ethan Allen. Short positions in 10-year Treasury futures and Australian banks detracted from performance. Overall, the fund has outperformed its benchmark since inception with a net annualized return of 21.3% compared to 12.6% for the index.
Gmo qtly letter_3q14_full
This document is a quarterly letter from GMO discussing potential investment environments and their implications. It presents two potential scenarios - "Purgatory" where interest rates rise gradually from very low levels, and "Hell" where rates remain near zero forever.
Under the "Hell" scenario of permanently low rates, traditional stock and bond allocations would still be reasonable investments. However, expected returns would be lower across all assets. Under the "Purgatory" scenario, current valuations would need to fall as rates rise, so returns over the next 7 years would be worse than in "Hell" though better over the long-run. The appropriate portfolio depends on the scenario, with lower allocations to stocks and bonds in
Estadistica anual definitiva 2013
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30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3
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Mauldin unsustainability wcc
- 1. 2013 Unsustainability and Transition A Presentation by John Mauldin Author of ENDGAME and Editor of www.JohnMauldin.com www.JohnMauldin.com
- 2. Unsustainability If something cannot be sustained, it will change. www.JohnMauldin.com
- 3. What is Unsustainable? A world in which expenses rise faster than income www.JohnMauldin.com
- 4. It’s the End of the World As We Know It, and I Feel Fine No, Better Than Fine— I Am Excited! www.JohnMauldin.com
- 5. 1 Debt The End of the Developed World Debt Supercycle www.JohnMauldin.com
- 6. 2 Unbalanced Entitlement Promises, Primarily Pension and Health Care (Think Demographics!) www.JohnMauldin.com
- 7. The World and Especially Progress is NOT Linear What is NOT Unsustainable Food, Energy, Technological Change, Human Adaptation and Most Importantly Growth www.JohnMauldin.com
- 8. Where are the Current Sources of Unsustainability? 1. Japan 2. Europe 3. The US 4. Maybe China www.JohnMauldin.com
- 9. Japan: A Bug In Search of a Windshield Ja www.JohnMauldin.com
- 10. Public Debt/GDP Projections SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements www.JohnMauldin.com
- 11. France is the New Greece SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements www.JohnMauldin.com
- 12. A Thought About Austerity Of Course it Doesn’t “Work” www.JohnMauldin.com
- 13. One Bubble to Rule Them All www.JohnMauldin.com
- 14. The Great Experiment Keynes VS von Mises VS Fisher VS Friedman www.JohnMauldin.com
- 15. Enter the New Economic Paradigm The World of Schumpeter and Minsky Stability, Instability and Creative Destruction Joseph Schumpeter and Hyman Minsky www.JohnMauldin.com
- 16. 4 The Millennium Wave: A World of Accelerating Change and Abundance www.JohnMauldin.com
- 17. 2013 The Transition to Sustainability Investment Theme: Avoid What is Negatively Affected by the Unsustainable and Choose What Is Sustainable www.JohnMauldin.com
- 18. What is The Characteristics of Sustainable? 1. It Serves Basic Human Needs -Food, Clothing, Housing, Social Networks!?!? 2. It is Adaptable and Antifragile -Technology, Communications 3. It Creates Ever Increasing Abundance at Lower Costs - Biotechnology, Robotics, Nanotechnology, Etc. www.JohnMauldin.com
- 19. For more information visit JohnMauldin.com www.JohnMauldin.com