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How Data is Driving
the Transport Revolution
- pg. 40
L A C U N A R A D A R
Q U A R T E R LY
4TH EDITIONFEBRUARY
2016
2016
Mobile Banking Reaches
1 Billion Clients
- pg. 24
The Big Binge: Watching
All the Screens All the Time
- pg. 84
Shoppertainment:
Buying into
Experimental Retail
- pg. 48
INDUSTRIES UNDER DISRUPTION
The Dawn of Lucrative
Solar Power
- pg. 11
Digital Storytelling Leaves
No Moment Unbranded
- pg. 65
Confectionery Comes
Clean: People Demand
Honest Food
- pg. 56
Connected Fashion is
the Next XXL Thing
- pg. 76
The Information Age
Decentralises Health
and Wellness
- pg. 34
Proud Pluralism
and the New ‘Normal’
- pg. 16
FROM THE EDITOR//003
CONTENTS FROM THE EDITOR
Healthy or Frankenfood.
Combustion engines or battery-powered cars.
Artificial intelligence or human creativity.
Hyper capitalism or social co-operativism.
The way we look at the world changes the future we choose.
Disruptive Times Ahead
In this edition of Lacuna Radar
Quarterly, we look forward with new
trends for 2016 and some of the key
shifts underway as we transit through
one of the most disruptive times in
human history.
But first, looking back on 2015, it was
an eventful year in every sense of the
word. Besides all kinds of developments
and disruptions taking place around
the world, a few significant things
also happened beyond our planet’s
atmosphere. NASA confirmed water on
Mars, astronauts ate food they grew in
space and the year closed with plans on
track for space colonisation. We seem
destined to leave the Earth, regardless
of whether we succeed in being
stewards of this spaceship.
As far as climate change is concerned,
with the recent adoption of the Paris
Agreement in December, multinational
brands are intensifying the search for
ways to become more innovative
around water, renewable energy and
supply chain issues. We see water
(and protein) becoming a luxury and
the concept of waste food recycled
into imperfect produce. It is common
sense that with a finite supply of land
and a growing population to feed,
there may not be enough to go round.
The key question is: What will be
different in your business by 2020 if
the agreement’s goals are met and
carbon levels are kept to a minimum?
As a critical mass of revolutionary
ideas form around the new-world
thinking of Millennial and Gen Z
startups, we are reaching the tipping
point of a paradigm shift. Increasingly,
companies are balancing the modern
consumer’s desire for novelty with a
commitment to ethics, transparency
and health. We are hopeful of a social
renewal led by Gen Z - and welcome
the rise in pluralism and gender
fluidity that accompanies them.
INDUSTRIES UNDER DISRUPTION
OUR RADAR: INTERVIEW WITH ISAAC MATSA//090
ENVIRONMENT//006
>> Climate Change Enters Our Everyday Lives
>> Switching to Renewables Becomes Profitable
SOCIETY//014
>> Pluralism
>> Slowing Down
FINANCIAL ECONOMY//022
>> A Bank in Your Pocket
>> Decentralising Trust
HEALTH ECONOMY//030
>> A Power Shift to Patients
>> Re-evaluating Lifestyle Choices
TRANSPORTATION//038
>> The Death of the Car as we Know it
>> From A to B with Ease
RETAIL//046
>> Beyond the Bricks
>> Purchasing Convenience
FOOD & DRINK//054
>> We Are What We Eat
>> Reducing Harm
MARKETING & ADVERTISING//062
>> Leveraging the Digital Ecosystem
>> Emphasis on Customer Experience
INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY//070
>> Making Artificial Intelligence Accessible
>> Mobile is the New Sun
>> The Connected World Wakes Up
MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT//080
>> Multi-Channel Fluidity
>> Access Over Ownership
>> Tailored Consumer Experiences
paymentweek.comcdn.thepennyhoarder.comdigitaltrends.com
AFFORDABLE
ENERGY STORAGE
010
SUBSCRIPTION
ON DEMAND
086
APPLE PAY
E-WALLET
050
02 FEBRUARY2016
Contents Contents
03FEBRUARY2016
It certainly appears that the more
this generation gets its way, the
more Fortune 500 brands are being
thrown into mid-life crisis. With the
exponential growth of the knowledge
economy, new ideas are accelerating
in every direction, like an outwardly
accelerating universe, and forming
new constellations of concepts that are
redefining the way we live, work, play
and learn – from banking, to beauty and
mobility, waste, food and more.
With today’s youth consumer being
more creative, curious and expressive,
they value novel, sensorial and
immersive experiences and are willing
to pay a premium for it. In 2016,
experiential education and experiential
marketing will expand against the
bigger backdrop of a global experience
economy. To adapt to evolving
consumer demands and meet unmet
needs, retailers are using multi-channel
personalisation to leverage ways for the
virtual and real space to feed off each
other.
In finance, it is interesting to see
that while digital is changing the
mechanisms by which we create,
store, transact and protect value, its
first principles - trust and security -
remain the same. In transport, there are
unprecedented advances taking place
with new combinations of technology
- such as the big data that powers
driverless vehicles - transforming
how we get from A to B.
In 2016’s media landscape, we will
see mass adoption of smartphones
leading to almost total global population
penetration and we’ll say goodbye to
TV as we know it. Video-quakes and
multichannel fluidity have turned the
box into a dinosaur.
While many thought leaders agree
that the worst may be very probable in
2016 at Lacuna we believe innovators
will unlock new pathways of hope and
disrupt the future of the future.
New Trend Content Plans
We wrap up this edition with an
interview with Isaac Matsa, Lacuna
Radar’s New Business Development
Head, to hear about the new trend
content plans in Finance, Food and
Beverage, and Packaging – as well
as the launch of our new African
TrendStar 2016.
We hope you will enjoy reading this
edition as much as we enjoyed creating
it. Please share it with your colleagues,
tweet @lacuna_innovate, and use the
hashtag #africantrendstar to keep up
with our African Trends conversation.
You can also like our new Facebook
page, Lacuna Radar Trends and
Innovation Community Forum, and
follow us on Slideshare or join in our
discussions on LinkedIn.
Merle O’Brien
Foresight and Innovation
Thoughtleadership
@merleobrien
@lacuna _ innovate
#africantrendstar
04 FEBRUARY2016
Editor’s Letter
ENVIRONMENT
It is no longer mother nature that
governs the flow of our ecosystems.
Scientists point to humans instead,
who are now taking over this role
as we enter what geologists and
ecologists call the epoch of the
Anthropocene. Events formerly seen
as just acts of nature, or related
to ordinary natural disasters are
increasingly being viewed as the
consequences of humans’ impact on
the environment. Climate change,
refugees, water scarcity, mass
extinction and food security are
all topics one hears and reads about
more these days. These happenings
will only appear more and more in
our newsfeeds in 2016. Amidst all
the doom and gloom, the good news
is that such a surging awareness
of our large-scale impact on nature
is shifting people’s mindsets.
Governments, businesses and the
man on the street are realising that
a wave will soon hit us. A wave of
change that is about to shake up the
planet and our lives. Simultaneously,
advances in renewable energy
technologies and innovations show
that a more sustainable future is both
possible and profitable.
ENVIRONMENT
wwf.panda.org
06 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Environment
The days of global warming being
something scientists talk about in a
vague future are gone. Today people
can see its effects with their own eyes
and climate experts are linking more
and more environmental catastrophes to
global warming. This is sparking off new
approaches to how we as individuals,
businesses and nations set our
priorities. Global warming has already
caused major Global Migration.
The major concern across all global
regions when it comes to global
warming, however, is drought and
water shortages. As carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases continue
to be pumped into the atmosphere,
freshwater supplies are endangered
by the resulting droughts, floods, and
disappearing glaciers. These changes
are all making water a frighteningly
scarce resource.
CLIMATE
CHANGE
ENTERS OUR
EVERYDAY LIVES
Water as Luxury, as we call it, has
huge repercussions on global Food
Security as agriculture is the biggest
water consumer, and as droughts are
becoming more frequent and severe.
Business leaders and governments
are pushing for the advancement of
technologies that can decrease our
impact and dependence on nature.
Another trend predominantly driven
by humans’ impact on the planet
is Mass Extinction. Scientists are
talking about us leading to the sixth
mass extinction, due to land clearing,
climate change, ocean acidification
and the destruction of ecosystems.
Species are now disappearing up
to about 100 times faster than the
normal rate between previous mass
extinctions. The conservation of
threatened species, the battle against
global warming and the move towards
a sustainable global economy should
therefore be top priorities not only for
governments, but also for industries
and individuals.
According to a report by the
UN, more than one in five
residents of at least one Pacific
island nation say they have had
to leave their homes because
of climate change. About 22.5
million people were displaced
annually between 2008 and
2014 due to sudden-onset,
weather-related hazards. Some
scientists have even linked the
conflict in Syria to climate
change. They say that global
warming intensified the region’s
worst ever drought, occurring
between 2006 and 2010,
which led 1.5 million people
to migrate to urban areas,
resulting in cultural clashes.
i
Roughly 1,000 animals have gone extinct over the last 500 years.
Scientists say the rate of extinction is quickening at a pace that
could lead to a loss of nearly 40% of all animal species by 2050.
i
Water use has been growing at
more than twice the rate of
population increase in the last
century. By 2025, 1.8 billion
people will be living in regions
with critical water scarcity,
and two-thirds of the world’s
population could be living
under stressed conditions.
i
Nebia is an innovative shower
head that uses 70% less water
than conventional shower
heads. Its founders have seen
major investments by Apple’s
CEO Tim Cook, Google’s Eric
Schmidt and other major
Silicon Valley investors.static.guim.co.uk
financialtribune.com
techburgh.com
mashable.com
Industries Under Disruption | Environment
08 FEBRUARY2016
After initial resistance, communities
and businesses are seeing the creation
of low-carbon emission processes and
products as less of a burden and more
of an opportunity. Continuing to rely on
fossil fuels doesn’t make financial or
environmental sense in a world where
costs of Renewable Energy are falling.
More and more businesses are aiming
to go carbon neutral within the next
decade or so, by implementing large-
scale sustainable technology systems
and investing in clean tech initiatives.
SWITCHING TO
RENEWABLES
BECOMES
PROFITABLE
One sustainable energy source
stands out in particular: solar energy.
Due to government incentives and
technological advances, the prices
of solar panels have been falling
tremendously over the last couple of
years. In some regions, solar energy is
already price competitive with energy
generated from fossil fuels. Within the
next decade, we are set to experience
a Solar Sunrise, as the cost of solar
energy drops to a fraction of the cost
of fossil fuel alternatives.
Hot on the heels of these
developments come major advances
and cost reductions in battery
technology, leading to opportunities
for Affordable Energy Storage. A
shift towards renewable energies,
a more efficient energy network
and e-mobility is only possible, and
also driven by, advances in battery
technology. In 2016, we will see
increasing buzz and competition
around home energy storage systems,
as homeowners consider the prospects
of being self-sufficient in terms of
energy generation.
According to the International
Energy Association (IEA),
switching from the current
fossil fuel energy system to a
low-carbon system by 2050
would cost $44 trillion. This
is less than 1% of global GDP
until then, and the associated
efficiency gains as well as
the economic benefits of not
having extreme climate change
make this an attractive, if not
necessary, investment choice.
i
Joe Kaeser, the CEO of
Siemens, recently said that
“taking [climate] action is not
just prudent – it’s profitable.”
Siemens declared that it will
become carbon neutral by
2030 (relating to emissions
directly linked to its own
economic activities) by
investing €110 million into
energy efficiency – with many
of its own technologies. It
expects a five-year payback
time, with energy savings of
€20 million per year
i
Barely a week after Tesla
announced its home battery,
called Powerwall, its stock
was sold out until mid-2016.
The Powerwall comes in two
designs, priced at USD $3,000
and $3,500 respectively.
Sonnenbatterie, a German
competitior of Tesla, offers
a full home solar power and
storage system at €9,000-
13,000 (approximately
$10,000-14,000)
comicvine.com
cdn.phys.org
digitaltrends.com
Graph:Bloomberg
10 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Environment
sweden.se
What if developing countries leapfrogged
fossil-fuel-based energy sources and
focused entirely on renewables to drive
growth and reduce energy poverty?
Africa is currently accounting for only 2.5% of global CO2 emissions.
Most of the continent is struggling with energy poverty and the energy
networks in place are just too inefficient. At the same time, Africa has
one of the greatest potential for renewables, especially solar energy. An
ambitious, concentrated focus on developing and deploying renewable
energies could enable Africa to become the global leader in low-carbon
development, while driving economic growth and prosperity.
What if there was a tax on carbon
emissions? Which businesses would
thrive, which ones would go bankrupt?
Prominent economists say that a carbon tax would be the best solution
in order for developed countries to transition to a low-carbon economy. In
today’s economics, carbon emissions that lead to global warming are still
seen as negative externalities that don’t have to be factored in. If there
were a carbon tax, governments would have the necessary monetary
resources to finance advances in renewable energies.
What if traditional energy grids become
redundant as everyone becomes
energy independent due to affordable
renewables and energy storage systems?
More and more companies are offering attractive investment options to
go fully energy independent. By investing in photovoltaic panels on one’s
roof and battery storage in the garage, home owners can become self-
sufficient, or even sell energy to neighbours. Such schemes look quite
financially attractive as technology costs plummet and more companies
enter the market, driving competition.
WHAT IF?
?
?
?
12 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Environment
Demographic shifts, technology and
broadening diversity are driving fast
changes in society, resulting in a world
that is more pluralistic than ever. In
2016 we can expect a continuation of
rapid changes in consumer behavior;
both a rebellion against and an
embracing of aspects of technology.
We will see the continued rise of
empathy, the intensification of efforts
to bring about equality, as well as a
redefinition of aspects of culture that
have always been deemed traditional,
and therefore often gone unchecked or
unquestioned. Millennials are moving
into their prime years, and the first
generation with no recollection of life
before Google and social networking
are entering tertiary education, and the
jobs market.
SOCIETY
SOCIETY
amazonaws.com
14 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Society
In 2016, the celebration of women’s
achievements, their intelligence and
cultural significance is a marked
shift from a culture that has always
sought to objectify them. It’s a
notion underscored by the decline of
patriarchy in what has been referred
to as the female century and the rise
of the woman redefined outside of the
patriarchal definition.
While the patriarchal era has been
defined by a lack of empathy, this has
been declining over recent years, and
younger generations – the Millennials
and Generation Z – appear poised to
bring about change in how things are
done. We are likely to see the ongoing
rise of a more empathetic society
where difference is embraced and
discrimination is increasingly frowned
upon. Intersectional thinking becomes
the standard of interpersonal relations
in a world where identity itself has
become pluralised, as a result of the
pluralism borne out of the last few
decades of globalisation.
PLURALISM
Demands for Provenance and
Transparency are also expected to
gain greater momentum. Consumers
want to know that the products they buy
are from ethical producers that care
more about things like animals and the
environment. Millennials will especially
be concerned about this as they enter
their parenting years.
The rising acceptance of Gender
Fluidity, and the decline of rigid
ideas of beauty - evident in the
rise in visibility for those who are
unconventionally beautiful - are also
manifestations of increased empathy
as Millennials – and their liberalism
– become parents and Generation Z –
the “founder generation” – grow older.
Intersectionality is defined
as “the view that women
experience oppression
in varying configurations
and in varying degrees of
intensity. Cultural patterns
of oppression are not only
interrelated, but are bound
together and influenced by
the intersectional systems
of society. Examples of this
include race, gender, class,
ability, and ethnicity.”
i
The 2016 Pirelli Calendar
for the first time celebrated
women for their intelligence
and cultural significance.
Among those featured are
actors Amy Schumer and
Yao Chen, musicians Yoko
Ono and Patti Smith, athlete
Serena Williams and author
Fran Leibovitz. Annie Leibovitz
shot the calendar’s pictures, in
what has been recognised by
commentators as a shift in how
society views women, and how
they view themselves.
“Gender fluidity is not really feeling like you’re at one end of the
spectrum or the other. For the most part, I definitely don’t identify
as any gender. I’m not a guy; I don’t really feel like a woman,
but obviously I was born one. So, I’m somewhere in the middle,
which -- in my perfect imagination -- is like having the best of
both sexes. I have a lot of characteristics that would normally be
present in a guy and then less that would be present in a woman.”
– Actress Ruby Rose, ELLE Magazine
Findings in an MTV Insights
survey show that Generation Z
is the most diverse generation
in history. 90% of participants
said they are going to start
a new society with more
acceptance of race, religion
and sexuality. – The New Yorker
i
“I’ve heard that statement my
entire life. Being a dark-skinned
black woman — you hear it
from the time you get out
of the womb. Classically not
beautiful is a fancy term of
saying ugly, and denouncing
you, erasing you. Now it worked
when I was younger; it no
longer works for me now.
Because really at the end of the
day, you define you.” – Actress
Viola Davis, in response to a NY
Times article describing her as
‘less classically beautiful’.
fastcompany.com
iStock
abc30.com
digitalistmag.com
sanfrancisco.informermg.com
16 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Society
The modern person’s time poverty and
fast-living approach to life is fuelling
a growing urge for more meaningful
connections and is further entrenching
the slow living movement. Slow
Living becomes a status symbol as
a result. This is not unrelated to our
desire to lead healthier lives, and to
therefore begin exploring better ways
of eating, living, and buying products
that relieve us from the relentless pace
of busy lives, technology and the like.
Interestingly, because of our desire
to slow down, intuitive tech will be a
welcome development for consumers
seeking to do more with what little time
they have.
This renewed interest in living better
– and perhaps even longer – is
quite evident in the reinvention of
age that is seeing the baby boomer
generation redefining what it means to
grow older. This paired with younger
people growing increasingly obsessed
with body image, is a boon for the
cosmetic surgery beauty industries
and providers of nutritional care.
SLOWING
DOWN
There is a rising emphasis on natural
products, and therefore a concern for
Provenance and Transparency.
Consumers are showing more
interest in taking back control of the
environment, and one can expect
the 2016 USA presidential election to
become the battlefield for conflicting
ideas on climate change. Adding to
that, water is becoming more and
more of a global concern, globally,
and the stage is set for Mainstream
Environmentalism.
In 2016 consumers will continue to
seek better value, investing more in
local concerns and generally exhibiting
a heightened sense of concern in their
decision making.
The slow movement advocates
a cultural shift towards slowing
down in a fast-living culture.
According to Wikipedia: “It
began with Carlo Petrini’s
protest against the opening
of a McDonald’s restaurant in
Piazza di Spagna, Rome in 1986,
and sparked the creation of
the slow food movement.”
i
80-year-old author Joan
Didion, singer Joni Mitchell
and actress Jessica Lange
were among a sorority of
seniors who were tapped by
luxury fashion brands like
Celine, Saint Laurent and
Marc Jacobs Beauty to front
their campaigns during 2015, a
marker of the reinvention of
age by baby boomers.
cool-food-photo.com
betterafter50.com
YouGlo.co.uk
Industries Under Disruption | Society
19FEBRUARY2016
cdn.wccftech.com
What if the refugee crisis turns out
to be a good thing for Europe?
With an ageing population and an influx of young refugees, what could
this mean for Europe? A younger labour force, younger consumers and
cultural diversity on an unprecedented scale? What will the continent
look like in, say, 10 to 15 years?
What if the dystopian future we see
in movies is closer than we think?
Granted, Generation Z is a pluralistic generation, but what if world events
like the current refugee crisis lead to a continued surge of right wing
sentiment and nationalism? Might this not open societies up to increased
government control and the kind of protectionism we see in dystopian
movie futures?
As the baby boomers reinvent ageing,
what if there was a way for humans to
preserve their cognitive functions, and
continue living beyond the confines of
the physical body?
The development of technology, such as embeddable chips and the like,
suggests that in the future we can escape death – or even ageing – by
downloading our cognitive functions and perhaps uploading them into an
external body. An AI, maybe? Could this see the rise of transhumanism?
WHAT IF?
?
?
?
20 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Society
With very little change to the dominant
structures and distribution of power
since its origins in Babylon and China,
millennia BC, the Financial Services
Industry remains one of the most
mediated industries in the world.
In the next few months and years
however, all of that is set to change!
Global demographic changes, rising
uncertainty and digitalisation have
finally hit the financial world and are
leading to a rethinking of how money,
banking and insurance can and should
be provided. Big Data technologies,
advances in Artificial Intelligence
and the continued dissemination
of smartphones is leading to new
possibilities and consumer demands,
with rewards increasingly being
reaped by disruptive, well-funded
fintech startups. What consumers
need – in terms of the creation,
storage, transaction and the protection
of value – hasn’t changed, but how
we can get it certainly has, with banks
and other financial service institutions
increasingly losing relevance and
purpose.
As Bill Gates says, “We need banking,
but we don’t need banks anymore”.
FINANCIAL
ECONOMY
FINANCIAL ECONOMY
“Your kids will not
know what money is.”
– Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, during an
address to university students in Britain
anz.com
22 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Financial Economy
The world is fast becoming mobile: in a
few years almost everyone on this earth
who does not yet own a smartphone
will get one. The impact this is having
on the world is huge and nowhere more
disruptive than in the banking sector.
Mobile Banking, for example, has
just surpassed the 1 billion user mark
as we are seeing a growing number
of digital-only banks being funded,
launched and expanded. These so-
called Virtual Banks are basically only
accessible through an app or website,
merging together a secure traditional
savings account with sophisticated
real-time transactions, financial advice,
free-to-use credit cards, simple P2P-
payment services and very intuitive
user interfaces.
With app-based banks and fintech
solutions on people’s phones, Mobile
Wallets will become a basic feature of
smartphones. And, as retailers adopt
new point-of-sale systems that accept
mobile payments, the number of people
using their phone to pay for goods and
services will dramatically increase.
A BANK IN
YOUR POCKET
Virtual Banks are increasingly popular with
younger consumers: for 41% of Gen Z, mobile
banking is essential. In the US, for example,
experts forecast a staggering 210% growth in
the total value of mobile payment transactions.
A Capgemini European Financial
Marketing Association report
reveals that only half of the
banking clients surveyed want
to go to a physical branch
to buy banking products – an
expensive channel to maintain
to serve just 1 in 2 customers.
Number26: Europe’s first
completely Virtual Bank
Account. Well-funded by
top Silicon Valley investors, it
provides customers with an app
and a free credit card, including
features such as money
management, P2P payments
and more. The service is set to
expand across Europe in 2016.
trendingtopics.at
followmyvote.com
24 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Financial Economy
We are witnessing a shift of attention
from Crypto Currencies like Bitcoin
to their underlying technologies:
distributed transaction databases
such as Blockchain. This technology
lets people who have no particular
confidence in each other collaborate
without having to go through a neutral
central authority. The Blockchain
therefore is a tool to create trust
without needing any third party.
Traditional channels for value transfer
are complex and involve many
institutions. The Blockchain could
enable a frictionless, secure, quick
and low-cost alternative for our
increasingly digital and fast-moving
world. Rising interest in the technology,
but also rising concerns about how
it could make some incumbents
redundant, is prompting a spike in
investments in startups providing
Blockchain solutions.
Being a very recent, still emerging
trend – 13 financial services firms
made their first investments in
Blockchain technology in just the
last five months – further growth and
implementation of this technology is
expected in 2016.
DECENTRALISING
TRUST
Ethereum Blockchain as a Service
Microsoft, ConsenSys and
Ethereum partner to launch
Blockchain as a service platform
for the financial services
industry on the Microsoft cloud
service Microsoft Azure.
R3 CEV, a startup specialising
in cryptographic technologies
for the financial world, has
seen major investments from
leading banks and venture
capitalists – 25 banks
Satoshi Nakamoto, the
mysterious, pseudonymous
creator of Bitcoin, has been
nominated for the Nobel Prize
for Economics.
The Blockchain is a distributed, cryptographic database that contains the
payment history of every bitcoin in circulation, which provides proof of
who owns what at any given juncture. This distributed ledger is replicated
on thousands of computers around the world and is publicly available. Its
security and trustworthiness is guaranteed by a mixture of mathematical
subtlety and computational brute force.
Trust in Banking Organisations is Eroding-
Number of consumers who trust:
Retail banks 32%
Investment banks 15%
Financial advisers 28%
Insurance providers 27%
utbank.co.uk
warranteer.com
motherboard.vice.com
wikimedia.org
26 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Financial Economy
paymentscardandmobile.com
What if there was no more cash, and
every transaction would be digital?
How would one establish trust?
Instead of focusing on actual banks to establish trust, focusing on the
technology used could better win the trust of clients. Better technology
could speed up settlement times, reduce costs and cut counterparty
risks. Banks were built in the last century for the physical distribution of
paper money in a localised network based on buildings and humans. To
manage that physical structure, people’s identities, proofs and store of
value had to be validated by centralised authorities trusted to provide
these identifiers, such as banks and governments. Today, this world is
being left for a digital one, and so the role of banks changes.
Given the Decline of Trust in
governments and banks in recent years,
what if there was a way to create more
transparency to improve a bank’s image?
Would it be worthwhile to test it?
As the benefits of the Blockchain are obvious, it becomes only a
matter of awareness and willingness to invest in the technology.
What if my piggy bank, my savings
account, my credit card, my mum who
always reminds me to save money, all
my friends, and a professional financial
advisor could all be in my pocket?
Moving banking to a smartphone app creates the opportunity to offer many
more value-adding features, such as data analytics, personalisation,
frequent updates, and adding new fintech innovations on the fly. The
bank would then also be at the customer’s location all the time - namely
in his or her pocket.
WHAT IF?
?
?
?
28 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Financial Economy
The revolution in digitalisation
and software hasn’t quite hit the
Health Economy in the scale it has
hit other industries. In the Health
Economy, power has always been
with healthcare providers and their
lawmakers. Today we are slowly
but steadily seeing a shift of this
relationship due to new technologies
and patient expectations. The Health
Economy is progressing into an era of
patient-centric health systems. New
software solutions are being adopted
by healthcare providers to implement
seamless, personalised care and to
give the patient more tools to monitor
his or her own health.
Technology, however, is a double-
edged sword. We are realising that
our increasing nexus with technology
also has its downsides. In the last
decades, we have seen completely
new technology-related illnesses that
predominantly hamper the health and
wellbeing of young people, as we
see ourselves being swamped by the
digitalisation of our world.
HEALTH
ECONOMY
HEALTH ECONOMY
rauland.com
30 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Health Economy
The healthcare industry is about to
experience a shift in its distribution
of power. Advances in information
and communication technologies are
leading to new possibilities regarding
healthcare provisioning, shifting the
power from healthcare providers to
patients. We are entering the age of
360 Healthcare.
Today when you get sick, the internet is
usually the first source of information,
as it offers benefits that traditional
healthcare providers lack: it is available
24/7, it is full of individuals with
similar conditions that can offer useful
information, and it can be accessed
from anywhere – even on the go.
So it appears the DIY Health trend
is booming. More and more people
are using fitness trackers and apps
to monitor their health and nutrition,
or just go online to look for the best
treatment – especially when it comes
to minor illnesses. Some new devices
even offer self diagnosis options.
A POWER
SHIFT TO
PATIENTS
This trend is opening the door for
new entrants from industries such as
retail, telecommunications, technology,
wellness and fitness. All of this is
putting lots of pressure on healthcare
providers to implement more patient-
centric health systems. In 2016 we are
likely to see more and more platforms
emerging that connect these different
health-related services with traditional
healthcare providers, in order to
offer an all-encompassing, seamless
healthcare provision.
Furthermore, the tremendous surge
in healthcare data, whether gathered
from patients themselves or from
traditional healthcare providers, is
leading to new opportunities - making
healthcare personal. Advancements in
data analytics and machine learning
are about to transform healthcare into
a preventative, personalised, instantly
accessible and always-on offering.
Oscar Health, in New York, is
disrupting traditional healthcare
companies by designing and
building platforms with vastly
superior user interfaces.
WellPath is a health supplement
company that provides
personalised nutritional
supplements based on a
customer’s health profile. Now
it is partnering with genetics
company 23andMe and
fitness tracker player Fitbit to
provide health supplements
personalised to a customer’s
genetic and activity data.
More than 40% of consumers
say that information found via
social media affects the way
they deal with their health.
(Mediabistro)
72% of internet users say
they looked online for health
information within the past year.
77% of online health seekers say
they began their last session at
a search engine such as Google,
Bing, or Yahoo.
Healthcare analytics has tremendous potential. The market has
been estimated to be worth over US $20 billion by the year 2020,
according to industry research firms. ( Market and Markets, iQ4i)
i
i
i
aspiciohealth.com
kreativeyedesign.com
androidheadlines.com
cainsnewyork.com
xtechnews.com
32 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Health Economy
Advances in technology have brought
about a world in which we increasingly
spend our waking lives in front of
screens, mostly while sitting and being
indoors. Every day we are bombarded
by a tsunami of emails, social media
notifications and news tickers. Every
month a major tech company or startup,
fuelled by the talent of top-notch IT
personnel and creatives, develops a
new electronic device that shackles us
even more to the digital wonderland.
While we appreciate the benefits of our
progressively technological and digital
world, we are realising its downsides.
A growing number of people suffer from
Lifestyle Disease: technology-related
mental and physical health problems
such as internet addiction, social media
depression, back pain, computer vision
syndrome or short-sightedness. These
problems are leading us to recognise
the need for us to re-evaluate our
lifestyles, and people want solutions
that help them prevent these diseases.
RE-EVALUATING
LIFESTYLE
CHOICES
Rather than seeking remedies for the
ailments technology causes, some
companies are looking to another
strategy altogether: Switching Off.
A plethora of marketing campaigns
are, while using the benefits of digital
distribution, stressing the importance
of re-evaluating our relationship with
nature, our body and mind. In addition,
the Mindful Living movement is
increasingly becoming mainstream and
global, integrating activities such as
ancient Buddhist meditation practises
into our daily lives. 2016 will see more
solutions come to light that change the
way we interact with technology, giving
birth to more comfortable and intuitive
relationships with our devices.
Sitting for too long at your desk? Get Refold, a portable standing
desk. Working on the laptop late at night? Get f.lux, an app that
adapts the colour of your laptop screen to the time of the day.
Headspace is a digital health
platform that provides
guided meditation sessions
and mindfulness training. The
platform, accessible via a web
and mobile app, has about 2
million active users from over
150 countries.
The average Briton, for example,
now spends around 1.8 hours
a day sitting looking at mobile
technology, 3.7 hours using a
laptop or desktop computer,
1.4 hours gaming and 2.8 hours
watching television or films.
Short-sightedness Epidemic:
60 years ago, 10–20% of the
Chinese population was short-
sighted. Today, up to 90% of
teenagers and young adults are.
In South Korea’s capital Seoul,
even 96.5% of 19-year-old men
are short-sighted. In the USA
and Europe, half of young adults
are affected — double the
prevalence of half a century
ago. By some estimates, one-
third of the world’s population
— 2.5 billion people — could be
affected by short-sightedness
by the end of this decade.
i
i
fastcompany.net
businessinsider.com
insidecxm.com
Moyan Brenn
34 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Health Economy
inbioveritas.com
What if we found out that smartphone-
related wireless technology is bad for
our health? What new consumer-oriented
solutions would be demanded?
Many studies already show that our current usage of technology can
directly be linked to specific illnesses. Nonetheless, when looking at the
data, we see our technological devices becoming perpetually ingrained
in our lives. While people become increasingly addicted to the digital
world, they are also starting to realise what it means to be always on. As
greater emphasis is placed on health and wellbeing, healthcare-related
programs that help people to switch off from the digital realm and connect
them with the “now” and the real world could have the upper hand.
What if healthcare would start the
moment you are born and never stop?
It could predict likely diseases, suggest
optimal nutrition and activities by
constantly monitoring your health
throughout your lifetime?
We are witnessing a shift in healthcare from a focus on diagnosis and
treatment to a focus on prevention and constant monitoring. This is
driven by new DIY Health technologies such as activity trackers and
self diagnosis tools. There are also more affordable gene sequencing
solutions and more knowledge about the sources of specific diseases
due to big data analytics.
WHAT IF?
What if your doctor, your insurance,
a medicine delivery service and
thousands of other people with similar
health problems where all seamlessly
accessible 24/7 via a platform?
Why can’t healthcare provision be similar to a delivery or ridesharing
service? The technology to make this happen is already there and
people’s demand for such a solution is there too. It is only a question
of time that we will see such integrated, seamless, digitally-enhanced
services. Thus, for healthcare providers and regulatory bodies it is only
about shifting their views and committing themselves to a new world.
?
?
?
36 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Health Economy
The transport industry is being
disrupted right in front of our eyes.
Top industry players are having to shift
gears as technological advances and
changing consumer demands lead
to new realities. Surprised by new
entrants and large-scale scandals,
automakers are increasingly realising
the limitations of the environmentally-
harmful combustion engine and are
moving towards electromobility.
But it is not only the car that is
changing, consumer demand is
transforming as well. Millennials in
western countries are increasingly
losing interest in car ownership.
The times when masses of young
professionals looked forward to
buying their own car after securing
their first job are gone. To achieve a
sense of self and freedom nowadays,
young people rather look to the digital
world where Instagram, Snapchat or
YouTube offers them free platforms to
express who they are.
In addition to these new paradigm
shifts, we are also seeing a growing
number of transport-sharing services,
as well as the approach of a driverless
car revolution poised to change the
way we commute. The near future
will be a world with a truly connected,
smart and intermodal mobility system.
TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION
europeanceo.com
38 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Transportation
“Twenty years from now, the smell of
exhaust will be as rare (in cities) as
the smell of cigarette smoke is in a
restaurant today.” Sir Richard Branson
The automobile industry is about
to experience a pace of change it
has never seen before. The glory
decades of the combustion engine
have come to an end, and there
is little room for the technology to
improve. Its efficiency has peaked
and Volkswagen’s ‘dieselgate’ scandal
was just the tip of the iceberg of an
unsustainable technology that is about
to be overtaken.
Over the last couple of years, the
automobile market has been stirred
up by new disruptive elements and
an ever-growing choice of electric
vehicles – predominantly made for
the more affluent consumer.
In 2016 however, Electromobility
will become the hottest trend in the
transportation industry, as electric
cars move from luxury to affordability.
Electromobility is partly spurred on
by governments all around the world
trying to boost their sustainability
THE DEATH OF
THE CAR AS
WE KNOW IT
efforts. These efforts can include
passing stricter environmental
regulations, such as low emission
requirements, as well as providing
more attractive incentives for electric
vehicles. In addition, more and
more carmakers are jumping on the
e-mobility train as electric vehicle
batteries become better, cheaper and
enable longer driving distances.
In addition, there is another trend
moving rapidly from science-fiction
movies into everyday reality: the
Driverless Car. Long seen as
something impossible to do, or as still
far off in the future, carmakers and
IT companies from Silicon Valley, via
Germany, through to China are all
lifting the curtain on their autonomous
vehicle initiatives. Some have even
introduced their first limited autopilot
features, letting car owners take their
hands off of the steering wheel while
on a highway, for example. It won’t be
long till the first truly autonomous cars
are driving on our roads.
BMW is aiming to convert all its
models to electric drivetrains or
hybrids over the next decade.
In addition, it plans to notably
reduce vehicle weights and to
improve aerodynamics.
Carmaker and industry disruptor
Tesla will unveil its Model 3
in March 2016 – a smaller and
cheaper sedan for $35,000
with a battery range of more
than 320km. Norway has the world’s most
persuasive national program for
boosting e-mobility. It exempts
e-vehicles from all non-recurring
vehicle fees, such as 25% VAT
on purchase, annual road tax,
toll fees, all public parking
fees and e-cars are allowed
to use bus lanes. This has led
to electric cars accounting
for 22.2% of all new car
registrations in 2015, up from
almost 0% four years before.
bmwblog.com
wikimedia.org
Lithium-Ion Batteries become
cheaper and cheaper:
2010: Nissan Leaf 		 - $1,000/kWh
2013: Tesla Model S 	 - $400/kWh
2016: GM Bolt 		 - $145/kWh
2020: Tesla forecasts 	 - $100/kWh
i
ecoautoninja.com
autoevolution.com
40 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Transportation
The digitalisation wave is changing
transportation. Not only the vehicles
themselves, but also how we
access them. In 2016 we will dive
deeper into the world of Connected
Mobility, consisting of smart cars,
interconnected public transport,
Transport Sharing as well as many
new interfaces that merge these
different networks.
In recent years cars, buses, trains
and - to an extent - even bicycles
have become more intelligent, being
equipped with an expanding amount
of sensors. New car models boast
smartphone-to-car technology,
next-generation entertainment
systems, smart vehicle monitoring,
navigation and smart assistance
control systems. In the coming years
we are likely to see the first debut
of truly Driverless Cars hitting the
road. Already today some cars offer
assisted parking and an autopilot
mode for highways. It is therefore,
for the most part, only a matter of
programming and data analytics to
make these cars fully autonomous.
FROM A TO
B WITH EASE
The Connected Mobility trend, as
described above, also includes more
efficient, intermodal transportation
networks. Besides the convenience
of being able to quickly share a car
or bicycle, more and more services
let us have our own drivers by simply
tapping our smartphone screens.
Furthermore, public transit agencies
are slowly joining the movement by
making their data freely available. This
is leading to a surge in services and
platforms that merge data gathered
from the crowd and public transit
systems with transport sharing, as
well as other traditional transportation
services. These platforms then aim
to create a far more pleasurable,
cheaper, sustainable and convenient
travel experience.
Shuddle and HopSkipDrive are
Ride-sharing services specifically
designed for kids. These
startups let parents set up
pre-scheduled pick-up times
for their kids with trusted,
thoroughly vetted drivers to
help get kids around town for
when their parents are too busy.
Ford, Opel and BMW are among
the first car manufacturers to
let car owners earn money by
renting out their new vehicles
to other drivers. While several
big carmakers have already
launched business-to-consumer
(B2C) car-sharing services, this
is the first attempt by major
industry players to jump into
the peer-to-peer (P2P) car-
sharing business.
In Spring 2016, Switzerland
will debut the world’s first
autonomous bus route in
the city of Sion. The busses
will be manufactured by a
French company called Narva,
while the system behind the
autonomous bus network will
be provided by Swiss startup
BestMile.
Moovel is a transport aggregator app that helps travellers get from A to
B without any hassle. It shows real-time information of all transportation
options nearby (bus, subway, taxi, car- or bike-share), compares prices
and lets you book the best transportation mode, directly within one
platform. In order to expand to the North American market, Moovel
recently acquired a similar USA-based service called RideScout.
getmobility.de
fastcompany.net
today.com
sustainabledevelopmentmagazine.com
42 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Transportation
phys.org
What if today’s car models can already
be made autonomous by only updating
their systems? What new opportunities
could arise for car-owners, and what new
businesses could be founded to grasp
some of these?
Tesla introduced its autopilot mode through a software update in 2015.
Tesla owners can just download the new update and use the driverless
mode on highways. As today’s cars are already packed with 60-200
sensors and more than 100 million lines of codes, a more sophisticated
update of that code structure could in many cases bridge the gap
between current cars and full autonomous driving capabilities.
What if people preferred a subscription
service with the ability to try out many
different cars, and switch between
renting cars and an ridesharing service
instead of traditional car ownership?
Subscription service Clutch lets you flexibly choose between different
cars, depending on your daily needs, as an alternative to car ownership
and leasing. On the other hand, Uber CEO Travis Kalanick has publicly
stated that Uber plans to introduce self-driving cars as soon as the
technology is ripe enough. Also, many surveys indicate that when it
comes to cars, especially people belonging to the younger generations
are less keen on owning a car and rather opt for car-sharing models or
public transportation.
WHAT IF?
What if developing countries leapfrogged
a broader adoption of the combustion
engine technology and went all electric?
China has been implementing ambitious e-mobility plans, providing
government incentives for e-vehicles, stricter regulations within its urban
areas and other laws. Similar plans are underway in India and Brazil.
Developing or emerging countries are increasingly seeing the benefits of
them leapfrogging other technologies, such as the landline phone with
mobile technology, and are attracted by new leapfrogging opportunities.
? ?
?
44 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Transportation
The marketplace is increasingly
becoming multichannel, with
information only a screen tap away
and products easily sellable through
social media. In 2016, technology
is driving retail towards utility and
relevance, putting the consumer
at the centre of innovation. The
consumer experience becomes
key to any brand’s survival.
Technology presents retailers with
the opportunity to improve the
customer’s shopping experience.
On- and offline are converging.
Retailers need to recognise this,
and seize the opportunity to merge
data on both sides to deliver a better
service to consumers, as the lines
between brick-and-mortar stores
and online continue to blur. Mobile
is a big theme for 2016, offering
consumers more payment options,
and retailers the perfect synergy
between payments, loyalty and
customer engagement.
RETAIL
RETAIL
shopsee.co.uk
46 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Retail
Gamified marketplace WinUru motivates shoppers to purchase
frome-tailersbyofferingafun,engagingandrewardingplatform
where brands can tell their stories and engage consumers.
i
The concept of multichannel retail
will be further entrenched in 2016, as
leading retailers and brands embrace
a new shopper experience, spurred by
digital innovation. Retailers must be
able to improve on the brick-and-mortar
formats while ensuring that they satisfy
the customer across all channels; from
in-store, to online, to mobile apps,
telesales, etc. Naturally, omni-channel
engagement across mediums – from
mobile, to in-store, television, radio,
catalogue, etc. – remains an important
part of retailing across platforms.
Uber and Spotify joined forces,
enabling riders to remotely
control the music that plays
through an Uber car’s speakers.
For Spotify, the collaboration
provides an incentive for users
to upgrade to its premium
level and a unique offering that
competitors Pandora, iTunes
or YouTube don’t provide. For
Uber, it further personalises the
customer experience.
Facebook partnered with
e-commerce service Shopify
to enable merchants to sell
their products directly through
Facebook. Pinterest was the
first social media platform
to introduce the ‘Buy’ button.
Twitter has followed suit.
BEYOND
THE
BRICKS Going forward, retailers will have to
think of innovative ways to utilise the
physical retail space. Increasingly,
experiential retail – shoppertainment
– has become an important part of
retaining foot traffic. In 2016, it goes
beyond the physical retail space and
crosses over into a gamified online
retail experience.
Social goes commercial, following
the introduction of ‘buy now’ buttons
on networks like Facebook, Twitter and
Pinterest. This presents retailers with
a new outlet, and the opportunity to
extract the big data that comes from
consumer interactions on social media.
i.ytimg.com
wire.co.uk
48 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Retail
Consumers want convenience and
mobile gives brands the opportunity
to add value to the consumer
experience by meeting this expectation.
As mobile penetration grows, this,
coupled with the adoption of connected
wearables – smartwatches in particular
– will accelerate the adoption of new
payment systems.
By next year, analysts predict that the
mobile sector, known as m-commerce,
will process US$ 800 billion globally. A
key driver of this is the un(der)banked
in developing economies.
In addition to m-commerce and other
forms of payments, social media pay
buttons are another example of recent
developments that are changing the
way we shop and pay.
PURCHASING
CONVENIENCE
Subscription shopping,
collaboration with other brands that
can add value to the consumer’s
experience, pricing flexibility and
mobile apps are all examples of how
retailers can meet the consumer’s
expectations of convenience.
Starbucks reports that about
15% of purchases in its USA
stores were paid through its
mobile app. By the end of
2015 the company launched a
Mobile Order program across
the United States so customers
can pre-order — avoiding long
queues and waiting time.
Apple’s iPhone 6 comes
equipped with an e-wallet
called Apple Pay that stores
payment information and lets
customers pay for items by
holding the iPhone in front of a
reader and placing a finger over
the fingerprint sensor.
H&M teamed up with high-end
luxury brand Balmain to offer
a limited-edition range. This
helped to drive traffic into
stores, while leveraging the
association with a luxury brand.
For Balmain, the collaboration
serves to increase brand
awareness and to forge a
bond with a new generation of
potential future customers.
paymentweek.com
imore.com labelsandlove.eu
50 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Retail
sport-locker.net
What if consumers could use a virtual
assistant to research products and
compare prices in real-time?
Consumers want convenience and, as virtual assistants like Apple’s Siri
improve, consumers will be able to do their product research in real-
time. Brands will have to consider how they can add value to this, and
reconfigure their businesses. For example, what does the job of a store
associate become when consumers have access to a virtual assistant?
What does this mean for your business?
What if malls were virtual and consumers
could have an immersive shopping
experience through Virtual Reality?
Virtual Reality is going mainstream this year with several brands putting
out VR products. If a consumer can have the mall experience from the
comfort of their couch, what happens to the brick-and-mortar store?
What if an entire store could be
personalised and tailored for
every individual customer?
As consumers increasingly seek more personalised services, how much
more personal could it get than a virtual store tailored to every individual
customer’s tastes? This could include specifications such as clothing
sizes, and colour preferences.
WHAT IF?
?
?
?
52 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Retail
Consumers are increasingly turning
to food products that offer desirable
health benefits. Natural ingredients,
back-to-basics preparation methods,
and a willingness to pay more for what
consumers consider beneficial to their
health are all trends that show no sign
of slowing down in 2016.
Meanwhile, as the effects of global
warming become harder to ignore, a
realisation about the meat industry is
spreading: that it is as much a threat to
the environment as our consumption of
fossil fuels is. This is one factor fuelling
the rise of more environmentally
friendly and sustainable food trends.
From the popularity of superfoods to
the consumption of alternative foods
that many would have considered
inedible, the threat of global warming
is about to considerably alter how we
source our food.
FOOD
& DRINK
FOOD & DRINK
huffingtonpost.com
54 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Food & Drink
WE ARE
WHAT
WE EAT
The healthy consumer is one that is
increasingly informed about what they
eat. Research shows that consumers
all over the world are much more
conscious of the effects of diet on
health and wellness than ever before.
Not only are consumers aware, but
they are taking matters into their own
hands, using food as medicine,
snacking on healthier indulgences
and eating more ethically in general.
Grains and superfoods are winning
more popularity, natural and alternative
preservation and processing methods
are trending, as is the consumption
of Imperfect Produce. Clean Eating
and Flexi-Diets – such as part-time
vegetarianism – is finding more favour
with consumers who are not only
aware of their diet’s effect on their
health and the environment, but are
increasingly proactive about changing
the way they eat.
New versions of old diet fads aren’t the
only upcoming trends, however. It now
seems that the reduced cost of DNA
testing will see an early adoption of
diets based on nutrigenomics – the
study of the effects of foods and food
constituents on gene expression.
South African company
DNAlysis Biotechnology is
marketing a DNA diet to
consumers, which includes
testing for 13 genetic variations
associated with obesity and
a tailored diet to match their
genetics. The University of
Toronto has established a
startup, Nutrigenomix, which
aims to improve health through
personalised nutrition using
DNA. They currently have
2,000 authorised providers of
this service around the world.
– Mail & Guardian/The Guardian
Nielsen’s Global Health and
Wellness Survey found that
an overwhelming number of
young people across the globe
prefer healthier options and
clean food. This is especially
true for Generation Z – people
younger than 20 – almost half
of whom said they are willing
to pay premium prices for
healthier products.
In 2014, France’s third
largest supermarket chain,
Intermarché, launched a
campaign that sought to
put an end to food waste.
Known as Inglorious Fruits
and Vegetables, the campaign
celebrates the ‘ugly’ produce
that is often considered unfit
for consumption and therefore
thrown out by growers. In
the USA, a start-up known
as Imperfect Produce sells
“cosmetically challenged” fruits
and vegetables. – nytimes.com
straight.com
onegreenplanet.org
investopedia.com
i
goodthingsguys.com
A New York Times poll
conducted last year found that
an overwhelming majority of
Americans are concerned about
genetically modified food.
93 percent of respondents
want labelling to reflect the
product’s engineered nature.
Their concerns range from fear
that such foods can cause
cancer or allergies, in spite of
the fact that scientific studies
have consistently shown there
is no added risk.
i
56 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Food & Drink
REDUCING
HARM
Many consumers pay attention to
how their buying choices affect the
environment, and they are therefore
looking for ways of enjoying food
with the least possible impact. The
consumption of imperfect produce,
the movement towards clean eating
and flexitarianism, for instance, are
examples of the consumer’s desire
to reduce the environmental impact
caused by our consumption habits.
These concerns about the
environment and sustainability will
be further entrenched as engineered
food infiltrates the marketplace.
In 2016, it is most likely that food
activists will seek popular support
to oppose the engineering of food,
or demand strict labelling, at best.
Expect this to drive consumers
even more towards veganism,
flexitarianism and other health-
conscious ways of eating. Over
the years alternative diets like the
paleo and raw diets have gained a
following, and veganism is now more
mainstream than ever.
Seeking to re-establish itself in
the natural foods movement,
Kashi, an American food brand
owned by Kellogg’s, made
moves last year to regain the
trust of finicky consumers
who want produce that is
sustainably produced. Smaller,
upstart brands are often
perceived by consumers as
healthier and more authentic,
which is where consumers are
increasingly migrating. – Ad Age
Preservation methods that rely on salt, sugar, brine or bacteria
have taken off in restaurants, but freezing is the tried-and-
tested method of preserving food, that finds most favour with
chefs, according to Paul Verica of Heritage Food & Drink. The
chef of the award-winning restaurant in Waxham, USA, says
this is because freezing doesn’t change the way food tastes.
– Nytimes.com
i
nutritionmythbuster.blogspot.com
Dr Mark Hyman of the
Cleveland Clinic Center for
Functional Medicine coined
the term “pegan” to describe
the trend of mixing the vegan
and paleo diets. Paleo (also
known as the caveman diet)
consists of meats, nuts, fish
and vegetables, while grain
products and processed foods
are avoided. Veganism is rich in
fruit and grain, but it doesn’t
incorporate animal products.
Combining the best elements
of both, Hyman says, results in
a balanced and healthy diet.
– ABC News
Other alternative sources of nutrition
heading towards the mainstream, given
momentum by growing awareness
of the unsustainable global meat
industry, are things like 3D-printed
food. 3D Printing is already a reality
in a lot of industries, and it’s on its
way to a plate near you too. Trends
like Western Entomophagy mean
you can also expect to see meatballs
made from insects, or crispy-fried
crickets - generally, food that is as
environmentally friendly and sustainable
as it is scary to fathom consuming. We
are bound to see the Farm-to-table
trend intensifying, from restaurants that
want to appeal to the ethical foodie, to
services offering farm-fresh produce
delivered to your door.
Shutterstock
58 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Food & Drink
thechinainvestors.com
If more and more people turn to healthy
ways of eating – superfoods, grains and
the like – how does this affect those
crops, the farming industry and food
security in general?
If everyone is using coconut oil, for example, this creates a surge in
demand. When does this outstrip supply, and what happens when this
occurs? How can the growth of these crops be sustained?
What if the provision of food becomes
increasingly personalised?
What happens to the retailer?
If people are increasingly looking for ways to tailor their diets to match
their DNA, how can businesses adapt to cater to this? The retail model
will have to change, and the employment of nutritionists at store level, for
example, may be called for.
What if genetically modified foods don’t
take off with Millennials and Generation
Zers being so concerned about health?
Brands will have to think of innovative ways of delivering what consumers
need without compromising the consumer’s desire for healthy, sustainably
raised or grown foods.
WHAT IF?
?
?
?
60 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Food & Drink
The increased pace of mobile
adoption is making it more urgent
for brands to find innovative ways
of engaging a consumer that
is increasingly inundated with
information, and more and more
prone to filtering out that which they
do not need. Social media influence
is intensifying, thus driving the
importance of a more considered
approach to leveraging the digital
ecosystem. In 2016, Social Goes
Commercial, and the line between
digital and physical is rapidly
becoming blurred.
Big Data continues to be a big
theme, especially with the arrival
of IBM’s Watson, which will change
industries significantly due to the
technology platform’s cognitive
computing abilities. The Artificial
Intelligence-powered system
answers questions posed to it in
natural language, and will serve as
an antidote to information overload;
interpreting and analysing the
streams of data constantly produced
through individuals’ interactions with
devices.
MARKETING
& ADVERTISING
MARKETING & ADVERTISING
medialets.com
62 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Marketing & Advertising
In the next decade, analysts predict
that smartphone penetration would
be closing in on 100% of consumers
in most developed nations, making it
ubiquitous, with mobile growth in less
developed economies not far behind.
This makes mobile an important area
for brands to develop, in anticipation
of the realities of operating in an
increasingly mobile environment,
where Instant Gratification, and
heightened consumer expectations are
changing the way people respond to
brands and how they communicate.
In 2016, we will see social media going
commercial. This makes Real-Time
engagement hugely important, and
this compels brands to understand
the consumer more intimately, so as
to avoid alienating them, or missing a
beat in this fast-moving environment.
Mining social media for big data cues
will be vital as the Personalisation of
services and the depth of the consumer
experience has become increasingly
non-negotiable.
LEVERAGING
THE DIGITAL
ECOSYSTEM
Telling Brand Stories will become
a very important part of engaging
consumers as the Decline of Trust
continues to plague whole industries.
This content will be crucial for brands,
which will need to convince and
convert individuals into genuine Brand
Advocates, who are defined more by
their propensity towards recommending
particular brands or services, rather
than their need to extract affirmation
from follower numbers, in the way
influencers are. Both operate in social
media, and in 2016, there will be a shift
as brands increasingly see the value of
earned social media, the equivalent of
vital word-of-mouth.
Twitter recently announced a
number of partnerships that will
make it easier for retailers of
any size to sell products, digital
goods, or services directly within
a Tweet via a Buy Now button.
Facebook offers a similar service
for Page admins to integrate
sales into posts and link to an
e-commerce platform. (Twitter)
The STM Merci app, available
for the iPhone, brings real-
time offers and incentives to
the 1.2-million daily users of
Montreal’s transit system.
Rewards target riders by gender
and personal preferences. They
are also geo-localized. For
instance, a bus rider may receive
an instant offer from a grocery
chain offering Prince Edward
Island oysters at a discount if
they visit the store in the next
hour, or a ‘wink’ from a local
coffee shop inviting them for
a free coffee because it’s their
birthday. (Financial Post)
By 2017, video will account for 69% of all consumer internet traffic,
according to Cisco. Video-on-demand alone will have trebled. According
to Nielsen, 64% of marketers in their survey expect video to dominate
their marketing efforts. (Cisco/Nielsen)
i
webvideomarketingportugal.com
razreye.com
cdn.com
64 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Marketing & Advertising
tridentbusinesssolutions.com
Relevance will increasingly become
an important measure of a brand’s
commitment to providing a valuable
service or a quality product to
consumers. For baby boomers, bigger
was ‘better’, and global conglomerates
with a one-size-fits-all approach to
marketing and branding prospered. For
Millennials on the other hand, a more
focused approach – think Localisation,
Customisation and Personalisation –
is what is most appreciated. This cohort
of consumers is moving into their prime
and companies that have not yet begun
the process of shifting focus to their
needs will lose business.
Consumers also want to know that
they are spending their hard earned
cash on companies that share the
same concerns as they do. Fewer
consumers are willing to buy from
a retailer that turns a blind eye to
social ills. Consumers are demanding
Provenance and Transparency and
the response has to be an evolution,
from corporate social responsibility to
Conscious Business, where brands
practically and proactively show
concern rather than paying lip service
to sharing values with consumers.
EMPHASIS ON
CUSTOMER
EXPERIENCE
As we’ve outlined, mobile is an
important part of the consumer
experience. Brands must use big
data to personalise the consumer’s
experience. As artificial intelligence
becomes more mainstream and
further develops, these mechanisms
that provide consumers convenience
will bring about a need for brands to
utilise smart, digital tricks to assist
consumers, and thereby add value to
their experience. Brands need to ask
the question: ‘What does the customer
want and what smart solutions are
there to meet their needs?’
These are questions that cognitive
computing systems like IBM’s Watson
and others can answer. Watson reveals
data-driven insights and provides
solutions to seemingly complex
questions by analysing unstructured
data. IBM has invited developers and
programmers to apply to build apps on
Watson. While not yet not confirmed,
there is talk of IBM working with Apple
to improve the Siri Digital Assistant’s
cognitive abilities, which would be a
consequential move for an industry
that’s always looking for ways to get
closer to consumers.
Millennials have a highly
developed sense of self and
are perceived as narcissist.
Relevance and personalising
their experience are important
things to remember in engaging
them. American retailer Primark
connects with them through
their Primania website, where
they are given the opportunity
to “develop your own unique
style profile and share your
fashion ideas and inspirations
with others.” (Business Insider)
Vehicle finance specialist
WesBank has signed a deal
to lease cars to Uber drivers.
Though the first phase will
provide up to 1,000 vehicles,
the plan is to increase this
to 15,000 within two years.
Uber wants to draw its drivers
— or partners — from poor
backgrounds and wants them to
run their own cars but because
almost all have limited existing
income and no credit records,
they are unable to get loan
finance. (Business Day)
pendolinogroup.com
66 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Marketing & Advertising
mychroniclife.files.wordpress.com
What if brands collaborated with
one another to give an increasingly
demanding consumer much more
value than one brand can on its own?
Consumers are much more likely to reward brands that offer them great
value and help them save on the greatest commodity of today - time
- and, of course, money. If, by collaborating with others, brands can
deliver to the consumer offerings that save them both time and money,
this could be a leap towards retaining their patronage.
What if consumers could have
immersive, multi-sensory experiences
without having to leave their homes?
The arrival of technologies like Virtual Reality, expected to become
mainstream due to several brands introducing their VR offerings during
the course of 2016, it gives brands the opportunity to explore new,
immersive ways of engaging the consumer.
What if brands were able to invest
far less on marketing and more on
improving product and services?
As online, and more specifically mobile, moves to overtake traditional
media - television, radio, print - brands have the opportunity to create
and distribute their own content. Clever execution in this regard cuts
the cost of marketing, while maximising access and reach on platforms
where not just reach, but also engagement, is far more quantifiable. The
feedback on engagement (in the form of big data) can be used (or rather,
should be used) to improve on services and product offerings. Social
media listening tools are available for this purpose.
WHAT IF?
?
?
?
68 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Marketing & Advertising
After decades of digital transformation,
we are on the brink of a new age: the
age of automation. As the physical
world around us is becoming more
and more computational, data-rich and
interlinked, and as new self-learning
algorithms are developed, it becomes
increasingly feasible and attractive
to let machines take on more and
more of people’s undesirable or even
impossible tasks.
One device really stands out from
the crowd, poised to become
the centrepiece technology for
the automation ecosystem: the
smartphone. This piece of tech means
that virtually every adult in the world
has a supercomputer in their pocket.
Computers can now resemble
anything from a bracelet to a 50-inch
television, and when it’s becoming
harder to tell a human and a machine
customer service representative apart,
the world certainly is changing for the
more robotic.
INFORMATION
& TECHNOLOGY
INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY
visualhunt.com
70 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
Advances in processing power, speech
recognition, mobile connectivity,
cloud computing and neural networks
have all surged to a critical mass at
roughly the same time. Today, these
technologies are finally accessible
enough, cheap enough, and good
enough to usher in an era of intelligent
machines. They come to rescue us
from a growing number of internet-
connected devices,apps and complex
software that we feel overwhelmed by.
The chase after smart, self-learning
algorithms is therefore becoming the
new gold rush in the tech industry, with
every major tech company, as well as
dozens of startups, trying to develop
the best Artificial Intelligence (AI) that
is able to automate undesirable tasks,
provide complex insights and enhance
productivity multifold.
In November 2015, Google
open-sourced its machine
learning system in order to
accelerate and advance the
development of AI systems.
Motion AI lets anyone without
much tech-literacy build their
own AI on their platform.
This AI can then be used to
automate and improve customer
engagement for small or one-
man businesses.
Companies like Interactions
already outsource customer
service hotlines to robots.
These entities handle the
customer service hotlines for
big corporations, such as health
insurance company Humana.
MAKING
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
ACCESSIBLE
2016 will be the year of the Virtual
Assistant. For businesses and
individuals alike, the automation
of things to be done through smart
software will be an important theme
that is set to receive lots of attention
throughout the year. In the business
context, virtual robots will increasingly
augment specific processes of
businesses, reducing labour demand
and overheads.
In 2016 significant advances and
improvements to well-known Virtual
Assistants such as Siri or Google Now
are expected, along with a huge boom
in other big tech companies launching
their own.
All these trends will ultimately lead to a
massive transformation in the way we
interact with technology, as well as the
way our economy works. 2016 might
show the first strong evidences of rising
unemployment due to the adoption
of AI systems in knowledge-intensive
white collar jobs. Already today, half
of North American graduates, for
example, end up taking jobs that don’t
make use their education.
Clara Labs, another AI startup,
uses an interplay of humans
and machines to automate
secretary services such as
scheduling and organising just
by adding ‘her’ to e-mails.
Facebook just rolled out M,
its smart virtual assistant that
uses AI capabilities paired with
human workers, all seamlessly
integrated in its popular Facebook
Messenger. Besides being able
to ask M general questions
about weather, location and so
on, users can also request M to
make reservations, book flights
or deliver flowers.
InSiliconValleytherearetwonewhotjobsinAI.Oneistherole
of AI developer, which involves improving machine learning
through highly complex and sophisticated programming
and mathematics. The other is being the robo-assistant, who
– with a limited skill set – tries to adapt to the new paradigm
by being the one who helps out when the AI struggles.
i
sagmart.com
500.co
72 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
We are on the brink of a mass global
technology substitution. The personal
computer, having long been the centre
of technological evolution, is now being
replaced by the mobile phone. Over the
next few years almost all the people who
don’t yet have phones will get one, and
almost all phones on earth will become
smartphones. Thus, the smartphone
itself is close to becoming a universal
product for humanity - the first the tech
industry has ever had.
This shift has many consequences for
businesses and consumers alike. The
smartphone wars of the last few years
have led to the availability of cheap,
low-power, ever-more sophisticated
smartphone components. Almost anyone
is able to use mobile technology as
the starting point to come up with new
gadgets or applications. The mobile
supply chain is dominating everything
from innovations in Virtual Reality, to the
Internet of Things and Driverless Cars.
Because of this Smartphone Ubiquity,
services and applications best suited
for mobile devices are becoming the
dominant digital platforms. We believe
that social Media, in particular mobile-
based messaging apps are going
commercial in 2016, in what we call
Messaging As Omni-Interface.
MOBILE IS
THE NEW SUN
Companies are realising where their
customers spend most of their time
and are coming up with suitable
services. More and more messaging
apps are including value-adding
features, such as P2P payments,
location-based information and
business-to-customer interactions
or virtual assistants into their apps.
In 2016, 2 billion consumers
worldwide will own a
smartphone. By 2020 about
6.1 billion will own one. India is
expected to exceed 200 million
smartphone users, topping the
US as the world’s second-
largest smartphone market.
Slack: Email is for grandparents.
Slack has turned basically every
feature of your business, from
tracking projects to file sharing
to bonus announcements,
into messaging.
In China, the popular free
text and call app, WeChat,
has already become a sort of
remote control for more than
600 million users. Despite
being a messaging app, WeChat
also acts as a mobile bank, a
promotion channel for brands
and celebrities, a way to renew
your visa or book reservations
at restaurants, to donate to
UNICEF and much more. It is the
most versatile app there is.
visualhunt.com
techcrunch.com
nuvicomlab.it
i
74 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
Today we truly live in a connected world.
The Internet of Things (IoT), long
hyped and talked about, is now finally
happening as more and more smart and
internet-connected devices enter the
market. Today you can buy connected
socks, bottles, forks, jewellery, cars,
toilets, egg trays, dog collars, shoes
and much more. Businesses too are
equipping entire manufacturing and
logistics facilities and components
with IoT sensors and devices to gather
performance data and use the resulting
insights to improve their efficiency.
In retail, the Beaconology trend is
really starting to kick off. Although on
the scene for some time, the smart
Bluetooth devices are finally cheap
and easy enough to install, and use, so
that small and large-scale retailers are
implementing them. This is leading to
completely new customer engagement
solutions that put traditional retail
strategies to shame.
THE
CONNECTED
WORLD
WAKES UP This enormous spreading web of
connected devices is therefore set to
become more and more apparent in
our everyday lives. In 2016, we are
on the verge of an IoT platform and
services explosion with lots of promising
opportunities for big corporations and
entrepreneurs. A plethora of data analytics
solutions and innovative interfaces and
platforms that link data tracking with
processing and smart algorithms (resulting
in smart service solutions) are about to
become more widely available.
It’s not only objects in shopping malls
and smart homes that are getting more
connected. Clothes are getting high-tech
too. Fashion Technology is the latest
trend in the textile and clothing industry
with designers, artists and IT startups
working on blending technology and
fashion. Technologies that can monitor our
vitals and change the way fabrics appear
or function are being integrated into more
textiles and garments. This trend is only
just taking off, and still offers plenty of
opportunities for businesses to dive in
before IT or clothing giants take over.
The number of sales at top
USA retailers influenced by
beacons is expected to jump
tenfold in 2016, from over
$4bn worth of sales in 2015.
i
Thingful: Search engine for
the Internet of Things that
visualises our connected world.
Matrix: A device that allows
you to create and download
applications for the Internet
of Things. With 15 onboard
sensors, Matrix allows for
more than 32,000sensor
combinations that let you
control the temperature of
your home, monitor your small
business after-hours, and more.
Particle: A prototype-to-
production platform for
developing your own Internet
of Things products.
The Nadi Smart Fitness Pants
by a startup called Wearable
Experiments are connected
yoga pants that use haptic
feedback to slowly guide its
wearer into perfect alignment.
If the wearer is in the correct
pose an ‘om’ sound greets
their accomplishment.
By the end of 2016 some 6.4 billion ‘things’ -- devices from
toasters and kettles to cars and hospital equipment -- will
be connected to the internet, according to analyst firm
Gartner. That figure represents a 30% increase from 2015.
i
estimote.com
walnutstlabs.com
tweaktown.com
76 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
digitaltrends.com
What if your business would focus
on mobile only? How would you
restructure? What would become more
important, what would be less important?
In just five years, almost everyone in this world will own a mobile phone.
A mobile-only strategy therefore doesn’t sound that crazy anymore. It
even opens up many more possibilities as smartphones, for example,
integrate many more technologies than a standard personal computer.
Companies able to create successful mobile products and services don’t
require a lot of capital, can scale easily and quickly without additional
costs, and are ultimately extremely agile.
What if services and experiences
– driven by the IoT – become more
important than actual products, for
all kinds of businesses?
The real value of the IoT revolution is the service opportunities it enables.
It is often overlooked that we are very much living in a service economy
- which is continuing to evolve into an experience economy. The
dissemination of the IoT will boost this shift, creating once unimaginable
service and experience solutions. Now is the time to get on this train
and start developing innovative solutions. Already today, the top tech
companies aren’t product manufactures, but rather ones developing
service and experience platforms.
About one-third of teenagers already
talk to their phones (to ask for directions,
help with homework, or play music).
What does that mean regarding your
customer engagement strategy?
For young people the smartphone is literally becoming an extension of
their minds. These kids and young adults find it hard to imagine a life
without their smartphones as they have become part of who these people
are. The 24/7 connectivity, for them, becomes a fundamental human right
and their smartphones become their friends. The better virtual assistants
and their natural language processing technology becomes, the more
young people will use it. It becomes like talking to a friend who knows
you inside out and who can make your life easier.
WHAT IF?
?
?
?
78 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
Disruptive digitalisation is upending the
way we consume entertainment across
the board, rendering old business and
service models increasingly obsolete.
More and more, it’s becoming evident
that consumers see no significant
divide between digital and traditional
media channels, and brands that fail
to shift focus are almost guaranteed to
lose ground.
Traditional media like television, as
we know it, will never be the same.
Technologies and services that
entertain people on-demand, like video-
streaming service Netflix, are changing
how consumers interact with content.
Similar shifts are changing the way
music is distributed.
The media industry playing field is
levelling, with smaller players like
YouTube vloggers eating into the
audiences that were previously tuned
in to mainstream media channels.
Consumers are taking advantage of the
many options now available to them.
As such, the smaller players are finding
ways of bypassing big brands, creating
content on platforms that are allowing
them to compete with established
industry giants.
MEDIA &
ENTERTAINMENT
MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT
gigaom.com
80 JANUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
The divided landscape that has
always defined media and
entertainment is making way for a
more fluid and multi-faceted eco-
system, where digitalisation is
accelerating Transmedia Storytelling,
and creating a more diversified
content universe, across the sector.
In publishing, we already know that
connected screens have all but
destroyed physical revenues, and
research has named Facebook and
Twitter as the leading Millennial news
sources. Interestingly, emerging
markets, like China, will increasingly
sustain traditional media and drive
consumer shifts in traditional media
such as cinema, which is still a relative
novelty in some parts of the world.
It is well documented that, in the
music industry, illegal P2P sharing
and digital sales have replaced
physical albums. Streaming has
also replaced terrestrial radio as a
promotional tool. This has forced
every level of the recording industry
o focus efforts on multiple platforms
and engagement models, such as
live performances and innovative
content creation and delivery.
MULTI-CHANNEL
FLUIDITY
The TV set is no longer the
only channel for personal video
consumption, as consumers
increasingly watch ‘television’ online.
Consuming other content on the
second screen; such as phones,
tablets, phablets and more, is also
on the rise. As in the music industry,
the Videoquake – the name given to
the ongoing disruptive boom of online
video streaming – is accelerating
the death of traditional programmed
broadcast television, with more
consumers switching off the good old
TV set in favour of consuming on-
demand video content online.
Apps like Periscope and the
increasing importance of Real-
Time content delivery is certain
to fundamentally shake up the
broadcasting of news, sports and
other live events in 2016. Even
gaming, which is the fastest-growing
Media & Entertainment category, is
invading the mainstream, thanks to
digital evolutions and innovations.
Terminator: Genisys, the
latest instalment in the movie
franchise was considered a
flop in North America after
it tanked at the box office.
But it is a flop no more, after
posting stunning box office
numbers in China, the new
growth engine for the global
box office. The sci-fi sequel
opened with a whopping
$27.4 million on its first day
in China, making it the fourth-
biggest opening day in that
territory ever. (Forbes)
eSports are going mainstream.
Well, that’s not strictly true.
The world finals of Dota 2
were watched by 20 million
people this year; last year,
League of Legends picked up
more than 27 million for its
finals, and 11.2 million of them
watched it live. eSports are
already mainstream!
(The Guardian)
Over the last decade, CD sales have declined by 80%, while
streaming — which not long ago contributed a negligible sum —
now makes up 32% of the annual revenue of record labels, according
to the Recording Industry Association of America. NYTimes.com
i
According to Twitter, 87%
of tweets about TV come
from mobile devices, 93% of
people active on Twitter during
primetime hours are tweeting
about television, and 50% of
users look up TV shows and
advertisement hashtags to see
what others are saying.
i
new.jrn.msu.edu
slugmag.com
telegraph.co.uk
pvpantherprint.og
82 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
The decline of traditional television
is evident with plummeting TV
subscriptions in territories where
consumers have access to services
like Netflix, Hulu and even (the now
ubiquitous) YouTube. In addition,
the arrival of the new Apple TV
indicates that apps may soon replace
programmed TV channels.
In the music industry, online streaming
has eroded profits and many artists
are still trying to navigate the new
environment where album sales are
no longer a viable income stream. Live
performances and digital sales, on the
other hand, are growing, but not fast
enough. The power of the recording
giants is diminishing, putting artists in a
much more powerful position to decide
on the fate of their own work.
The streaming of web content doubled
in volume in 2014 and internet video,
streamed to television screens, is
growing at a rapid pace. It is expected
to increase four-fold by 2019. Media
companies ought to streamline their
delivery accordingly, as TV channels
and networks, radio stations and other
forms of traditional distribution models
are fast losing ground to digital and
the multi-platform ecosystem that
consumers clearly prefer.
In the second quarter of 2015,
Netflix said its global subscriber
numbers grew to 65,6 million,
buoyed by popular original
programmes like Daredevil
and Orange Is the New Black.
(Netflix)
Two days after the debut of British singer Adele’s latest single
‘Hello’, the accompanying video was streamed, on average, more
than 1 million times per hour. By the end of its first week on the
platform, it had passed 100 million global views. It was later reported
that Adele may follow Taylor Swift’s cue by not allowing Spotify to
stream her album on release, to avoid disappointing sales.
i
i
ACCESS
OVER
OWNERSHIP
As of 2014, 22.8 million USA
households (19% of the total)
did not have any type of
linear TV subscription. That’s
expected to jump to 26.8
million (21.8% of total) by 2017.
(Convergence Group)
i
cdn.thepennyhoarder.com
standard.co.uk
84 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
The multifaceted ecosystem of content
delivery that the modern consumer
demands are tied to the flexibility that
today’s consumer requires. Gone are
the days of pre-programmed cable
and satellite packages. They want
affordable, tailored content experiences
that transcend platforms, and as
connectivity and access increase, so
will the consumer’s power to choose,
making differentiation important for
brands competing in this space.
Already, OTT (over-the-top) services
are reaping the rewards of their
month-to-month, unlimited streaming
subscription models, and SVOD
(subscription video-on-demand)
is growing rapidly as a result. The
concept of access over ownership is
becoming more and more significant
in video content delivery. By the year
2020 the number of connected devices
in use on the planet will reach 25 to
40 billion. No matter how you look at
it, that shift is huge, considering the
current number of connected devices
already (marginally) outnumbers the
human population.
With more devices at their disposal,
and with the amount of content that
is posted online every minute of the
day, consumers will not be short
of entertainment options. Media
companies that succeed will be those
that add niche, flexible value to their
experience of consuming media and
entertainment content.
The growing importance of live
entertainment and digital disruptions
in live experiences will be very
important in this cluster. Virtual
Reality, for example, looks set to
make a mainstream splash in 2016,
and it is bound to revolutionise the
consumer experience.
TAILORED
CONSUMER
EXPERIENCE
Video streaming doubled in 2014,
and is expected to increase four-
fold by 2019. Currently, YouTube
has over a billion users — almost
one-third of all people on the
internet. Overall, YouTube reaches
more 18-34 year-olds than any
cable network in the USA, where
the hours they spend watching
videos is up 60% year-on-year.
Nielsen research says 71% of consumers agree that the
amount of TV content available is “overwhelming”. 61% say
there are too many shows and not enough time to watch them.
i
goodnatureddog.com
fancamsite.com
American network HBO made
the leap in 2014, and soon
launched its own standalone
streaming services HBO Go
and HBO Now. CBS launched
All Access, the BBC launched
iPlayer and South Africa’s
Multichoice, the owners of
DSTV, launched DSTV Now.
Multichoice also recently
launched ShowMax, on news
that Netflix was eyeing the
South African market.
86 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
thecomputerguyz.co.za
What happens when the meaning
of ‘mainstream’ is no longer what it
used to be?
If 20 million people are watching an eSports tournament, do we still refer
to what is evidently an enormous culture as niche? When a survey finds
that Youtube stars are bigger than Hollywood stars in terms of influence
and following, is it not a matter of the digital world disrupting the meaning
of our language?
What if programmed television, as we
know it, becomes completely obsolete?
Consumers picking and choosing what they want to watch and when
they want to watch it completely disrupts the way traditional broadcasting
works. In the near future we will see how content ownership will be further
disrupted and distribution will become increasingly democratised.
What if the live experience
becomes completely nerdified in
the face of innovations like Virtual
Reality and the visual capabilities
of app-based television?
With live entertainment evolving and gaming also experiencing an
explosion, the combination of the two will completely change how
we interact with the live experience. Imagine a music festival where
everyone’s experience is virtual, or a comic book that comes to life in
your living room.
WHAT IF?
?
?
?
88 FEBRUARY2016
Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
OUR RADAR
Lacuna is made up of a diverse team of individuals who help shape
our perspectives as we turn trends into innovation opportunities.
Here Isaac Matsa, Head of Business Development, shares more
about how Lacuna Radar works as a product and service. His
focus is to create relationships that have long-term, sustained
value for the company among new customers and markets.
What products and services do
companies want from Lacuna Radar?
There are three key segments:
For companies without large R&D budgets,
we offer relevant and up-to-date trend
information updated regularly on the
Lacuna Radar platform. This comes with
a Trend Content Plan and the option of a
custom industry-specific Content Plan
such as Finance, Food & Beverage, Retail
and Packaging.
For those who are in a niche industry and
require specific insights, we populate the
basic trend platform with their own data
and technologies.
Some customers, especially those with
global innovation teams, also make use of
our innovation management consultancy
service. This straddles the line between a
creative agency that provides an in-sourced
R&D service and a peak performance
business optimisation team.
What sets Lacuna Radar apart from
other trend agencies in the market?
We combine rational, evidence-based
trend research and scenario analysis – with
emotional, intuitive, creative processes in a
4-step FEI methodology – to systematically
‘connect the dots’ and identify unique
opportunity spaces for innovation.
Our trend software contains over 160 trends
and 3,000 inspirations rigorously analysed
and constantly updated by a professional
team of trend researchers and futurists.
The convenience and ease-of-use of a
cloud-based platform enables greater
collaboration across global innovation
teams in a structured way 24/7.
Over the last decade, our leaders have
worked with over 1,000 innovation
practitioners around the world to
sustainably innovate new products,
services and business models by
combining trends, insight and
commercial expertise in one place.
What is the trend? Do companies
use a curated Trend Content Plan
or custom build their own?
It works both ways. Lacuna Radar’s global
Trend Content Plan provides a bird’s-eye
view of mega, macro and micro trends.
Those which are most relevant to a
particular company, become the foundation
on which to build a custom Radar that
speaks to their industry, region or market
segment. This way, we help companies
build focused innovation portfolios within
their industry that also mitigates the risks of
cross-industry disruption.
What kind of support is provided
to companies with a Radar?
Before we embark on building a new Radar,
we get the entire organisation’s innovation
team on the same page and coach the
leadership through the process. If I bring
five people together right now and ask what
innovation is, or what a mega trend is, I’d
probably get five different definitions.
We ‘on-board’ new customers with a trend
workshop to clarify key concepts, areas of
focus and to map out the project plan. A key
outcome is a Trends Relevance Map that
highlights the most relevant, specific trends
which link to strategic themes, for example
Creative Customer Engagement, Smart
Data Economy, Demographic Change etc.
Tech support is provided throughout the
duration of the subscription. The platform is
ever evolving and subject to upgrades with
better versions.
A trend team is assigned to each client
to load content updates at agreed-upon
intervals to ensure relevant and up-to-date
information is always on hand.
Some customers require ongoing access
to a trend analyst for in-depth evaluation
of macro and micro trends against the
bigger backdrop of global and local news
and events.
Describe a typical day for you:
It varies from research and back-to-back
calls, to travelling to Johannesburg or
meeting with clients in Cape Town. Before
I can present a solution, I establish the
client’s needs and challenges (short and
long term) to identify how best Lacuna can
fill the gap.
Who do you engage with in the
innovation space - directors,
innovation, strategy, marketing, etc?
I deal with the C-suite - CEOs, Managing
Directors, Chief Innovation Officers,
Marketing and Brand Directors, R&D and
Chief Technology Officers.
90 FEBRUARY2016
Our Radar: Interview
Lacuna Radar Quarterly
Lacuna Radar Quarterly

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Lacuna Radar Quarterly

  • 1. How Data is Driving the Transport Revolution - pg. 40 L A C U N A R A D A R Q U A R T E R LY 4TH EDITIONFEBRUARY 2016 2016 Mobile Banking Reaches 1 Billion Clients - pg. 24 The Big Binge: Watching All the Screens All the Time - pg. 84 Shoppertainment: Buying into Experimental Retail - pg. 48 INDUSTRIES UNDER DISRUPTION The Dawn of Lucrative Solar Power - pg. 11 Digital Storytelling Leaves No Moment Unbranded - pg. 65 Confectionery Comes Clean: People Demand Honest Food - pg. 56 Connected Fashion is the Next XXL Thing - pg. 76 The Information Age Decentralises Health and Wellness - pg. 34 Proud Pluralism and the New ‘Normal’ - pg. 16
  • 2. FROM THE EDITOR//003 CONTENTS FROM THE EDITOR Healthy or Frankenfood. Combustion engines or battery-powered cars. Artificial intelligence or human creativity. Hyper capitalism or social co-operativism. The way we look at the world changes the future we choose. Disruptive Times Ahead In this edition of Lacuna Radar Quarterly, we look forward with new trends for 2016 and some of the key shifts underway as we transit through one of the most disruptive times in human history. But first, looking back on 2015, it was an eventful year in every sense of the word. Besides all kinds of developments and disruptions taking place around the world, a few significant things also happened beyond our planet’s atmosphere. NASA confirmed water on Mars, astronauts ate food they grew in space and the year closed with plans on track for space colonisation. We seem destined to leave the Earth, regardless of whether we succeed in being stewards of this spaceship. As far as climate change is concerned, with the recent adoption of the Paris Agreement in December, multinational brands are intensifying the search for ways to become more innovative around water, renewable energy and supply chain issues. We see water (and protein) becoming a luxury and the concept of waste food recycled into imperfect produce. It is common sense that with a finite supply of land and a growing population to feed, there may not be enough to go round. The key question is: What will be different in your business by 2020 if the agreement’s goals are met and carbon levels are kept to a minimum? As a critical mass of revolutionary ideas form around the new-world thinking of Millennial and Gen Z startups, we are reaching the tipping point of a paradigm shift. Increasingly, companies are balancing the modern consumer’s desire for novelty with a commitment to ethics, transparency and health. We are hopeful of a social renewal led by Gen Z - and welcome the rise in pluralism and gender fluidity that accompanies them. INDUSTRIES UNDER DISRUPTION OUR RADAR: INTERVIEW WITH ISAAC MATSA//090 ENVIRONMENT//006 >> Climate Change Enters Our Everyday Lives >> Switching to Renewables Becomes Profitable SOCIETY//014 >> Pluralism >> Slowing Down FINANCIAL ECONOMY//022 >> A Bank in Your Pocket >> Decentralising Trust HEALTH ECONOMY//030 >> A Power Shift to Patients >> Re-evaluating Lifestyle Choices TRANSPORTATION//038 >> The Death of the Car as we Know it >> From A to B with Ease RETAIL//046 >> Beyond the Bricks >> Purchasing Convenience FOOD & DRINK//054 >> We Are What We Eat >> Reducing Harm MARKETING & ADVERTISING//062 >> Leveraging the Digital Ecosystem >> Emphasis on Customer Experience INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY//070 >> Making Artificial Intelligence Accessible >> Mobile is the New Sun >> The Connected World Wakes Up MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT//080 >> Multi-Channel Fluidity >> Access Over Ownership >> Tailored Consumer Experiences paymentweek.comcdn.thepennyhoarder.comdigitaltrends.com AFFORDABLE ENERGY STORAGE 010 SUBSCRIPTION ON DEMAND 086 APPLE PAY E-WALLET 050 02 FEBRUARY2016 Contents Contents 03FEBRUARY2016
  • 3. It certainly appears that the more this generation gets its way, the more Fortune 500 brands are being thrown into mid-life crisis. With the exponential growth of the knowledge economy, new ideas are accelerating in every direction, like an outwardly accelerating universe, and forming new constellations of concepts that are redefining the way we live, work, play and learn – from banking, to beauty and mobility, waste, food and more. With today’s youth consumer being more creative, curious and expressive, they value novel, sensorial and immersive experiences and are willing to pay a premium for it. In 2016, experiential education and experiential marketing will expand against the bigger backdrop of a global experience economy. To adapt to evolving consumer demands and meet unmet needs, retailers are using multi-channel personalisation to leverage ways for the virtual and real space to feed off each other. In finance, it is interesting to see that while digital is changing the mechanisms by which we create, store, transact and protect value, its first principles - trust and security - remain the same. In transport, there are unprecedented advances taking place with new combinations of technology - such as the big data that powers driverless vehicles - transforming how we get from A to B. In 2016’s media landscape, we will see mass adoption of smartphones leading to almost total global population penetration and we’ll say goodbye to TV as we know it. Video-quakes and multichannel fluidity have turned the box into a dinosaur. While many thought leaders agree that the worst may be very probable in 2016 at Lacuna we believe innovators will unlock new pathways of hope and disrupt the future of the future. New Trend Content Plans We wrap up this edition with an interview with Isaac Matsa, Lacuna Radar’s New Business Development Head, to hear about the new trend content plans in Finance, Food and Beverage, and Packaging – as well as the launch of our new African TrendStar 2016. We hope you will enjoy reading this edition as much as we enjoyed creating it. Please share it with your colleagues, tweet @lacuna_innovate, and use the hashtag #africantrendstar to keep up with our African Trends conversation. You can also like our new Facebook page, Lacuna Radar Trends and Innovation Community Forum, and follow us on Slideshare or join in our discussions on LinkedIn. Merle O’Brien Foresight and Innovation Thoughtleadership @merleobrien @lacuna _ innovate #africantrendstar 04 FEBRUARY2016 Editor’s Letter
  • 4. ENVIRONMENT It is no longer mother nature that governs the flow of our ecosystems. Scientists point to humans instead, who are now taking over this role as we enter what geologists and ecologists call the epoch of the Anthropocene. Events formerly seen as just acts of nature, or related to ordinary natural disasters are increasingly being viewed as the consequences of humans’ impact on the environment. Climate change, refugees, water scarcity, mass extinction and food security are all topics one hears and reads about more these days. These happenings will only appear more and more in our newsfeeds in 2016. Amidst all the doom and gloom, the good news is that such a surging awareness of our large-scale impact on nature is shifting people’s mindsets. Governments, businesses and the man on the street are realising that a wave will soon hit us. A wave of change that is about to shake up the planet and our lives. Simultaneously, advances in renewable energy technologies and innovations show that a more sustainable future is both possible and profitable. ENVIRONMENT wwf.panda.org 06 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Environment
  • 5. The days of global warming being something scientists talk about in a vague future are gone. Today people can see its effects with their own eyes and climate experts are linking more and more environmental catastrophes to global warming. This is sparking off new approaches to how we as individuals, businesses and nations set our priorities. Global warming has already caused major Global Migration. The major concern across all global regions when it comes to global warming, however, is drought and water shortages. As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continue to be pumped into the atmosphere, freshwater supplies are endangered by the resulting droughts, floods, and disappearing glaciers. These changes are all making water a frighteningly scarce resource. CLIMATE CHANGE ENTERS OUR EVERYDAY LIVES Water as Luxury, as we call it, has huge repercussions on global Food Security as agriculture is the biggest water consumer, and as droughts are becoming more frequent and severe. Business leaders and governments are pushing for the advancement of technologies that can decrease our impact and dependence on nature. Another trend predominantly driven by humans’ impact on the planet is Mass Extinction. Scientists are talking about us leading to the sixth mass extinction, due to land clearing, climate change, ocean acidification and the destruction of ecosystems. Species are now disappearing up to about 100 times faster than the normal rate between previous mass extinctions. The conservation of threatened species, the battle against global warming and the move towards a sustainable global economy should therefore be top priorities not only for governments, but also for industries and individuals. According to a report by the UN, more than one in five residents of at least one Pacific island nation say they have had to leave their homes because of climate change. About 22.5 million people were displaced annually between 2008 and 2014 due to sudden-onset, weather-related hazards. Some scientists have even linked the conflict in Syria to climate change. They say that global warming intensified the region’s worst ever drought, occurring between 2006 and 2010, which led 1.5 million people to migrate to urban areas, resulting in cultural clashes. i Roughly 1,000 animals have gone extinct over the last 500 years. Scientists say the rate of extinction is quickening at a pace that could lead to a loss of nearly 40% of all animal species by 2050. i Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century. By 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in regions with critical water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under stressed conditions. i Nebia is an innovative shower head that uses 70% less water than conventional shower heads. Its founders have seen major investments by Apple’s CEO Tim Cook, Google’s Eric Schmidt and other major Silicon Valley investors.static.guim.co.uk financialtribune.com techburgh.com mashable.com Industries Under Disruption | Environment 08 FEBRUARY2016
  • 6. After initial resistance, communities and businesses are seeing the creation of low-carbon emission processes and products as less of a burden and more of an opportunity. Continuing to rely on fossil fuels doesn’t make financial or environmental sense in a world where costs of Renewable Energy are falling. More and more businesses are aiming to go carbon neutral within the next decade or so, by implementing large- scale sustainable technology systems and investing in clean tech initiatives. SWITCHING TO RENEWABLES BECOMES PROFITABLE One sustainable energy source stands out in particular: solar energy. Due to government incentives and technological advances, the prices of solar panels have been falling tremendously over the last couple of years. In some regions, solar energy is already price competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels. Within the next decade, we are set to experience a Solar Sunrise, as the cost of solar energy drops to a fraction of the cost of fossil fuel alternatives. Hot on the heels of these developments come major advances and cost reductions in battery technology, leading to opportunities for Affordable Energy Storage. A shift towards renewable energies, a more efficient energy network and e-mobility is only possible, and also driven by, advances in battery technology. In 2016, we will see increasing buzz and competition around home energy storage systems, as homeowners consider the prospects of being self-sufficient in terms of energy generation. According to the International Energy Association (IEA), switching from the current fossil fuel energy system to a low-carbon system by 2050 would cost $44 trillion. This is less than 1% of global GDP until then, and the associated efficiency gains as well as the economic benefits of not having extreme climate change make this an attractive, if not necessary, investment choice. i Joe Kaeser, the CEO of Siemens, recently said that “taking [climate] action is not just prudent – it’s profitable.” Siemens declared that it will become carbon neutral by 2030 (relating to emissions directly linked to its own economic activities) by investing €110 million into energy efficiency – with many of its own technologies. It expects a five-year payback time, with energy savings of €20 million per year i Barely a week after Tesla announced its home battery, called Powerwall, its stock was sold out until mid-2016. The Powerwall comes in two designs, priced at USD $3,000 and $3,500 respectively. Sonnenbatterie, a German competitior of Tesla, offers a full home solar power and storage system at €9,000- 13,000 (approximately $10,000-14,000) comicvine.com cdn.phys.org digitaltrends.com Graph:Bloomberg 10 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Environment
  • 7. sweden.se What if developing countries leapfrogged fossil-fuel-based energy sources and focused entirely on renewables to drive growth and reduce energy poverty? Africa is currently accounting for only 2.5% of global CO2 emissions. Most of the continent is struggling with energy poverty and the energy networks in place are just too inefficient. At the same time, Africa has one of the greatest potential for renewables, especially solar energy. An ambitious, concentrated focus on developing and deploying renewable energies could enable Africa to become the global leader in low-carbon development, while driving economic growth and prosperity. What if there was a tax on carbon emissions? Which businesses would thrive, which ones would go bankrupt? Prominent economists say that a carbon tax would be the best solution in order for developed countries to transition to a low-carbon economy. In today’s economics, carbon emissions that lead to global warming are still seen as negative externalities that don’t have to be factored in. If there were a carbon tax, governments would have the necessary monetary resources to finance advances in renewable energies. What if traditional energy grids become redundant as everyone becomes energy independent due to affordable renewables and energy storage systems? More and more companies are offering attractive investment options to go fully energy independent. By investing in photovoltaic panels on one’s roof and battery storage in the garage, home owners can become self- sufficient, or even sell energy to neighbours. Such schemes look quite financially attractive as technology costs plummet and more companies enter the market, driving competition. WHAT IF? ? ? ? 12 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Environment
  • 8. Demographic shifts, technology and broadening diversity are driving fast changes in society, resulting in a world that is more pluralistic than ever. In 2016 we can expect a continuation of rapid changes in consumer behavior; both a rebellion against and an embracing of aspects of technology. We will see the continued rise of empathy, the intensification of efforts to bring about equality, as well as a redefinition of aspects of culture that have always been deemed traditional, and therefore often gone unchecked or unquestioned. Millennials are moving into their prime years, and the first generation with no recollection of life before Google and social networking are entering tertiary education, and the jobs market. SOCIETY SOCIETY amazonaws.com 14 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Society
  • 9. In 2016, the celebration of women’s achievements, their intelligence and cultural significance is a marked shift from a culture that has always sought to objectify them. It’s a notion underscored by the decline of patriarchy in what has been referred to as the female century and the rise of the woman redefined outside of the patriarchal definition. While the patriarchal era has been defined by a lack of empathy, this has been declining over recent years, and younger generations – the Millennials and Generation Z – appear poised to bring about change in how things are done. We are likely to see the ongoing rise of a more empathetic society where difference is embraced and discrimination is increasingly frowned upon. Intersectional thinking becomes the standard of interpersonal relations in a world where identity itself has become pluralised, as a result of the pluralism borne out of the last few decades of globalisation. PLURALISM Demands for Provenance and Transparency are also expected to gain greater momentum. Consumers want to know that the products they buy are from ethical producers that care more about things like animals and the environment. Millennials will especially be concerned about this as they enter their parenting years. The rising acceptance of Gender Fluidity, and the decline of rigid ideas of beauty - evident in the rise in visibility for those who are unconventionally beautiful - are also manifestations of increased empathy as Millennials – and their liberalism – become parents and Generation Z – the “founder generation” – grow older. Intersectionality is defined as “the view that women experience oppression in varying configurations and in varying degrees of intensity. Cultural patterns of oppression are not only interrelated, but are bound together and influenced by the intersectional systems of society. Examples of this include race, gender, class, ability, and ethnicity.” i The 2016 Pirelli Calendar for the first time celebrated women for their intelligence and cultural significance. Among those featured are actors Amy Schumer and Yao Chen, musicians Yoko Ono and Patti Smith, athlete Serena Williams and author Fran Leibovitz. Annie Leibovitz shot the calendar’s pictures, in what has been recognised by commentators as a shift in how society views women, and how they view themselves. “Gender fluidity is not really feeling like you’re at one end of the spectrum or the other. For the most part, I definitely don’t identify as any gender. I’m not a guy; I don’t really feel like a woman, but obviously I was born one. So, I’m somewhere in the middle, which -- in my perfect imagination -- is like having the best of both sexes. I have a lot of characteristics that would normally be present in a guy and then less that would be present in a woman.” – Actress Ruby Rose, ELLE Magazine Findings in an MTV Insights survey show that Generation Z is the most diverse generation in history. 90% of participants said they are going to start a new society with more acceptance of race, religion and sexuality. – The New Yorker i “I’ve heard that statement my entire life. Being a dark-skinned black woman — you hear it from the time you get out of the womb. Classically not beautiful is a fancy term of saying ugly, and denouncing you, erasing you. Now it worked when I was younger; it no longer works for me now. Because really at the end of the day, you define you.” – Actress Viola Davis, in response to a NY Times article describing her as ‘less classically beautiful’. fastcompany.com iStock abc30.com digitalistmag.com sanfrancisco.informermg.com 16 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Society
  • 10. The modern person’s time poverty and fast-living approach to life is fuelling a growing urge for more meaningful connections and is further entrenching the slow living movement. Slow Living becomes a status symbol as a result. This is not unrelated to our desire to lead healthier lives, and to therefore begin exploring better ways of eating, living, and buying products that relieve us from the relentless pace of busy lives, technology and the like. Interestingly, because of our desire to slow down, intuitive tech will be a welcome development for consumers seeking to do more with what little time they have. This renewed interest in living better – and perhaps even longer – is quite evident in the reinvention of age that is seeing the baby boomer generation redefining what it means to grow older. This paired with younger people growing increasingly obsessed with body image, is a boon for the cosmetic surgery beauty industries and providers of nutritional care. SLOWING DOWN There is a rising emphasis on natural products, and therefore a concern for Provenance and Transparency. Consumers are showing more interest in taking back control of the environment, and one can expect the 2016 USA presidential election to become the battlefield for conflicting ideas on climate change. Adding to that, water is becoming more and more of a global concern, globally, and the stage is set for Mainstream Environmentalism. In 2016 consumers will continue to seek better value, investing more in local concerns and generally exhibiting a heightened sense of concern in their decision making. The slow movement advocates a cultural shift towards slowing down in a fast-living culture. According to Wikipedia: “It began with Carlo Petrini’s protest against the opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Piazza di Spagna, Rome in 1986, and sparked the creation of the slow food movement.” i 80-year-old author Joan Didion, singer Joni Mitchell and actress Jessica Lange were among a sorority of seniors who were tapped by luxury fashion brands like Celine, Saint Laurent and Marc Jacobs Beauty to front their campaigns during 2015, a marker of the reinvention of age by baby boomers. cool-food-photo.com betterafter50.com YouGlo.co.uk Industries Under Disruption | Society 19FEBRUARY2016
  • 11. cdn.wccftech.com What if the refugee crisis turns out to be a good thing for Europe? With an ageing population and an influx of young refugees, what could this mean for Europe? A younger labour force, younger consumers and cultural diversity on an unprecedented scale? What will the continent look like in, say, 10 to 15 years? What if the dystopian future we see in movies is closer than we think? Granted, Generation Z is a pluralistic generation, but what if world events like the current refugee crisis lead to a continued surge of right wing sentiment and nationalism? Might this not open societies up to increased government control and the kind of protectionism we see in dystopian movie futures? As the baby boomers reinvent ageing, what if there was a way for humans to preserve their cognitive functions, and continue living beyond the confines of the physical body? The development of technology, such as embeddable chips and the like, suggests that in the future we can escape death – or even ageing – by downloading our cognitive functions and perhaps uploading them into an external body. An AI, maybe? Could this see the rise of transhumanism? WHAT IF? ? ? ? 20 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Society
  • 12. With very little change to the dominant structures and distribution of power since its origins in Babylon and China, millennia BC, the Financial Services Industry remains one of the most mediated industries in the world. In the next few months and years however, all of that is set to change! Global demographic changes, rising uncertainty and digitalisation have finally hit the financial world and are leading to a rethinking of how money, banking and insurance can and should be provided. Big Data technologies, advances in Artificial Intelligence and the continued dissemination of smartphones is leading to new possibilities and consumer demands, with rewards increasingly being reaped by disruptive, well-funded fintech startups. What consumers need – in terms of the creation, storage, transaction and the protection of value – hasn’t changed, but how we can get it certainly has, with banks and other financial service institutions increasingly losing relevance and purpose. As Bill Gates says, “We need banking, but we don’t need banks anymore”. FINANCIAL ECONOMY FINANCIAL ECONOMY “Your kids will not know what money is.” – Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, during an address to university students in Britain anz.com 22 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Financial Economy
  • 13. The world is fast becoming mobile: in a few years almost everyone on this earth who does not yet own a smartphone will get one. The impact this is having on the world is huge and nowhere more disruptive than in the banking sector. Mobile Banking, for example, has just surpassed the 1 billion user mark as we are seeing a growing number of digital-only banks being funded, launched and expanded. These so- called Virtual Banks are basically only accessible through an app or website, merging together a secure traditional savings account with sophisticated real-time transactions, financial advice, free-to-use credit cards, simple P2P- payment services and very intuitive user interfaces. With app-based banks and fintech solutions on people’s phones, Mobile Wallets will become a basic feature of smartphones. And, as retailers adopt new point-of-sale systems that accept mobile payments, the number of people using their phone to pay for goods and services will dramatically increase. A BANK IN YOUR POCKET Virtual Banks are increasingly popular with younger consumers: for 41% of Gen Z, mobile banking is essential. In the US, for example, experts forecast a staggering 210% growth in the total value of mobile payment transactions. A Capgemini European Financial Marketing Association report reveals that only half of the banking clients surveyed want to go to a physical branch to buy banking products – an expensive channel to maintain to serve just 1 in 2 customers. Number26: Europe’s first completely Virtual Bank Account. Well-funded by top Silicon Valley investors, it provides customers with an app and a free credit card, including features such as money management, P2P payments and more. The service is set to expand across Europe in 2016. trendingtopics.at followmyvote.com 24 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Financial Economy
  • 14. We are witnessing a shift of attention from Crypto Currencies like Bitcoin to their underlying technologies: distributed transaction databases such as Blockchain. This technology lets people who have no particular confidence in each other collaborate without having to go through a neutral central authority. The Blockchain therefore is a tool to create trust without needing any third party. Traditional channels for value transfer are complex and involve many institutions. The Blockchain could enable a frictionless, secure, quick and low-cost alternative for our increasingly digital and fast-moving world. Rising interest in the technology, but also rising concerns about how it could make some incumbents redundant, is prompting a spike in investments in startups providing Blockchain solutions. Being a very recent, still emerging trend – 13 financial services firms made their first investments in Blockchain technology in just the last five months – further growth and implementation of this technology is expected in 2016. DECENTRALISING TRUST Ethereum Blockchain as a Service Microsoft, ConsenSys and Ethereum partner to launch Blockchain as a service platform for the financial services industry on the Microsoft cloud service Microsoft Azure. R3 CEV, a startup specialising in cryptographic technologies for the financial world, has seen major investments from leading banks and venture capitalists – 25 banks Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious, pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, has been nominated for the Nobel Prize for Economics. The Blockchain is a distributed, cryptographic database that contains the payment history of every bitcoin in circulation, which provides proof of who owns what at any given juncture. This distributed ledger is replicated on thousands of computers around the world and is publicly available. Its security and trustworthiness is guaranteed by a mixture of mathematical subtlety and computational brute force. Trust in Banking Organisations is Eroding- Number of consumers who trust: Retail banks 32% Investment banks 15% Financial advisers 28% Insurance providers 27% utbank.co.uk warranteer.com motherboard.vice.com wikimedia.org 26 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Financial Economy
  • 15. paymentscardandmobile.com What if there was no more cash, and every transaction would be digital? How would one establish trust? Instead of focusing on actual banks to establish trust, focusing on the technology used could better win the trust of clients. Better technology could speed up settlement times, reduce costs and cut counterparty risks. Banks were built in the last century for the physical distribution of paper money in a localised network based on buildings and humans. To manage that physical structure, people’s identities, proofs and store of value had to be validated by centralised authorities trusted to provide these identifiers, such as banks and governments. Today, this world is being left for a digital one, and so the role of banks changes. Given the Decline of Trust in governments and banks in recent years, what if there was a way to create more transparency to improve a bank’s image? Would it be worthwhile to test it? As the benefits of the Blockchain are obvious, it becomes only a matter of awareness and willingness to invest in the technology. What if my piggy bank, my savings account, my credit card, my mum who always reminds me to save money, all my friends, and a professional financial advisor could all be in my pocket? Moving banking to a smartphone app creates the opportunity to offer many more value-adding features, such as data analytics, personalisation, frequent updates, and adding new fintech innovations on the fly. The bank would then also be at the customer’s location all the time - namely in his or her pocket. WHAT IF? ? ? ? 28 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Financial Economy
  • 16. The revolution in digitalisation and software hasn’t quite hit the Health Economy in the scale it has hit other industries. In the Health Economy, power has always been with healthcare providers and their lawmakers. Today we are slowly but steadily seeing a shift of this relationship due to new technologies and patient expectations. The Health Economy is progressing into an era of patient-centric health systems. New software solutions are being adopted by healthcare providers to implement seamless, personalised care and to give the patient more tools to monitor his or her own health. Technology, however, is a double- edged sword. We are realising that our increasing nexus with technology also has its downsides. In the last decades, we have seen completely new technology-related illnesses that predominantly hamper the health and wellbeing of young people, as we see ourselves being swamped by the digitalisation of our world. HEALTH ECONOMY HEALTH ECONOMY rauland.com 30 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Health Economy
  • 17. The healthcare industry is about to experience a shift in its distribution of power. Advances in information and communication technologies are leading to new possibilities regarding healthcare provisioning, shifting the power from healthcare providers to patients. We are entering the age of 360 Healthcare. Today when you get sick, the internet is usually the first source of information, as it offers benefits that traditional healthcare providers lack: it is available 24/7, it is full of individuals with similar conditions that can offer useful information, and it can be accessed from anywhere – even on the go. So it appears the DIY Health trend is booming. More and more people are using fitness trackers and apps to monitor their health and nutrition, or just go online to look for the best treatment – especially when it comes to minor illnesses. Some new devices even offer self diagnosis options. A POWER SHIFT TO PATIENTS This trend is opening the door for new entrants from industries such as retail, telecommunications, technology, wellness and fitness. All of this is putting lots of pressure on healthcare providers to implement more patient- centric health systems. In 2016 we are likely to see more and more platforms emerging that connect these different health-related services with traditional healthcare providers, in order to offer an all-encompassing, seamless healthcare provision. Furthermore, the tremendous surge in healthcare data, whether gathered from patients themselves or from traditional healthcare providers, is leading to new opportunities - making healthcare personal. Advancements in data analytics and machine learning are about to transform healthcare into a preventative, personalised, instantly accessible and always-on offering. Oscar Health, in New York, is disrupting traditional healthcare companies by designing and building platforms with vastly superior user interfaces. WellPath is a health supplement company that provides personalised nutritional supplements based on a customer’s health profile. Now it is partnering with genetics company 23andMe and fitness tracker player Fitbit to provide health supplements personalised to a customer’s genetic and activity data. More than 40% of consumers say that information found via social media affects the way they deal with their health. (Mediabistro) 72% of internet users say they looked online for health information within the past year. 77% of online health seekers say they began their last session at a search engine such as Google, Bing, or Yahoo. Healthcare analytics has tremendous potential. The market has been estimated to be worth over US $20 billion by the year 2020, according to industry research firms. ( Market and Markets, iQ4i) i i i aspiciohealth.com kreativeyedesign.com androidheadlines.com cainsnewyork.com xtechnews.com 32 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Health Economy
  • 18. Advances in technology have brought about a world in which we increasingly spend our waking lives in front of screens, mostly while sitting and being indoors. Every day we are bombarded by a tsunami of emails, social media notifications and news tickers. Every month a major tech company or startup, fuelled by the talent of top-notch IT personnel and creatives, develops a new electronic device that shackles us even more to the digital wonderland. While we appreciate the benefits of our progressively technological and digital world, we are realising its downsides. A growing number of people suffer from Lifestyle Disease: technology-related mental and physical health problems such as internet addiction, social media depression, back pain, computer vision syndrome or short-sightedness. These problems are leading us to recognise the need for us to re-evaluate our lifestyles, and people want solutions that help them prevent these diseases. RE-EVALUATING LIFESTYLE CHOICES Rather than seeking remedies for the ailments technology causes, some companies are looking to another strategy altogether: Switching Off. A plethora of marketing campaigns are, while using the benefits of digital distribution, stressing the importance of re-evaluating our relationship with nature, our body and mind. In addition, the Mindful Living movement is increasingly becoming mainstream and global, integrating activities such as ancient Buddhist meditation practises into our daily lives. 2016 will see more solutions come to light that change the way we interact with technology, giving birth to more comfortable and intuitive relationships with our devices. Sitting for too long at your desk? Get Refold, a portable standing desk. Working on the laptop late at night? Get f.lux, an app that adapts the colour of your laptop screen to the time of the day. Headspace is a digital health platform that provides guided meditation sessions and mindfulness training. The platform, accessible via a web and mobile app, has about 2 million active users from over 150 countries. The average Briton, for example, now spends around 1.8 hours a day sitting looking at mobile technology, 3.7 hours using a laptop or desktop computer, 1.4 hours gaming and 2.8 hours watching television or films. Short-sightedness Epidemic: 60 years ago, 10–20% of the Chinese population was short- sighted. Today, up to 90% of teenagers and young adults are. In South Korea’s capital Seoul, even 96.5% of 19-year-old men are short-sighted. In the USA and Europe, half of young adults are affected — double the prevalence of half a century ago. By some estimates, one- third of the world’s population — 2.5 billion people — could be affected by short-sightedness by the end of this decade. i i fastcompany.net businessinsider.com insidecxm.com Moyan Brenn 34 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Health Economy
  • 19. inbioveritas.com What if we found out that smartphone- related wireless technology is bad for our health? What new consumer-oriented solutions would be demanded? Many studies already show that our current usage of technology can directly be linked to specific illnesses. Nonetheless, when looking at the data, we see our technological devices becoming perpetually ingrained in our lives. While people become increasingly addicted to the digital world, they are also starting to realise what it means to be always on. As greater emphasis is placed on health and wellbeing, healthcare-related programs that help people to switch off from the digital realm and connect them with the “now” and the real world could have the upper hand. What if healthcare would start the moment you are born and never stop? It could predict likely diseases, suggest optimal nutrition and activities by constantly monitoring your health throughout your lifetime? We are witnessing a shift in healthcare from a focus on diagnosis and treatment to a focus on prevention and constant monitoring. This is driven by new DIY Health technologies such as activity trackers and self diagnosis tools. There are also more affordable gene sequencing solutions and more knowledge about the sources of specific diseases due to big data analytics. WHAT IF? What if your doctor, your insurance, a medicine delivery service and thousands of other people with similar health problems where all seamlessly accessible 24/7 via a platform? Why can’t healthcare provision be similar to a delivery or ridesharing service? The technology to make this happen is already there and people’s demand for such a solution is there too. It is only a question of time that we will see such integrated, seamless, digitally-enhanced services. Thus, for healthcare providers and regulatory bodies it is only about shifting their views and committing themselves to a new world. ? ? ? 36 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Health Economy
  • 20. The transport industry is being disrupted right in front of our eyes. Top industry players are having to shift gears as technological advances and changing consumer demands lead to new realities. Surprised by new entrants and large-scale scandals, automakers are increasingly realising the limitations of the environmentally- harmful combustion engine and are moving towards electromobility. But it is not only the car that is changing, consumer demand is transforming as well. Millennials in western countries are increasingly losing interest in car ownership. The times when masses of young professionals looked forward to buying their own car after securing their first job are gone. To achieve a sense of self and freedom nowadays, young people rather look to the digital world where Instagram, Snapchat or YouTube offers them free platforms to express who they are. In addition to these new paradigm shifts, we are also seeing a growing number of transport-sharing services, as well as the approach of a driverless car revolution poised to change the way we commute. The near future will be a world with a truly connected, smart and intermodal mobility system. TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION europeanceo.com 38 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Transportation
  • 21. “Twenty years from now, the smell of exhaust will be as rare (in cities) as the smell of cigarette smoke is in a restaurant today.” Sir Richard Branson The automobile industry is about to experience a pace of change it has never seen before. The glory decades of the combustion engine have come to an end, and there is little room for the technology to improve. Its efficiency has peaked and Volkswagen’s ‘dieselgate’ scandal was just the tip of the iceberg of an unsustainable technology that is about to be overtaken. Over the last couple of years, the automobile market has been stirred up by new disruptive elements and an ever-growing choice of electric vehicles – predominantly made for the more affluent consumer. In 2016 however, Electromobility will become the hottest trend in the transportation industry, as electric cars move from luxury to affordability. Electromobility is partly spurred on by governments all around the world trying to boost their sustainability THE DEATH OF THE CAR AS WE KNOW IT efforts. These efforts can include passing stricter environmental regulations, such as low emission requirements, as well as providing more attractive incentives for electric vehicles. In addition, more and more carmakers are jumping on the e-mobility train as electric vehicle batteries become better, cheaper and enable longer driving distances. In addition, there is another trend moving rapidly from science-fiction movies into everyday reality: the Driverless Car. Long seen as something impossible to do, or as still far off in the future, carmakers and IT companies from Silicon Valley, via Germany, through to China are all lifting the curtain on their autonomous vehicle initiatives. Some have even introduced their first limited autopilot features, letting car owners take their hands off of the steering wheel while on a highway, for example. It won’t be long till the first truly autonomous cars are driving on our roads. BMW is aiming to convert all its models to electric drivetrains or hybrids over the next decade. In addition, it plans to notably reduce vehicle weights and to improve aerodynamics. Carmaker and industry disruptor Tesla will unveil its Model 3 in March 2016 – a smaller and cheaper sedan for $35,000 with a battery range of more than 320km. Norway has the world’s most persuasive national program for boosting e-mobility. It exempts e-vehicles from all non-recurring vehicle fees, such as 25% VAT on purchase, annual road tax, toll fees, all public parking fees and e-cars are allowed to use bus lanes. This has led to electric cars accounting for 22.2% of all new car registrations in 2015, up from almost 0% four years before. bmwblog.com wikimedia.org Lithium-Ion Batteries become cheaper and cheaper: 2010: Nissan Leaf - $1,000/kWh 2013: Tesla Model S - $400/kWh 2016: GM Bolt - $145/kWh 2020: Tesla forecasts - $100/kWh i ecoautoninja.com autoevolution.com 40 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Transportation
  • 22. The digitalisation wave is changing transportation. Not only the vehicles themselves, but also how we access them. In 2016 we will dive deeper into the world of Connected Mobility, consisting of smart cars, interconnected public transport, Transport Sharing as well as many new interfaces that merge these different networks. In recent years cars, buses, trains and - to an extent - even bicycles have become more intelligent, being equipped with an expanding amount of sensors. New car models boast smartphone-to-car technology, next-generation entertainment systems, smart vehicle monitoring, navigation and smart assistance control systems. In the coming years we are likely to see the first debut of truly Driverless Cars hitting the road. Already today some cars offer assisted parking and an autopilot mode for highways. It is therefore, for the most part, only a matter of programming and data analytics to make these cars fully autonomous. FROM A TO B WITH EASE The Connected Mobility trend, as described above, also includes more efficient, intermodal transportation networks. Besides the convenience of being able to quickly share a car or bicycle, more and more services let us have our own drivers by simply tapping our smartphone screens. Furthermore, public transit agencies are slowly joining the movement by making their data freely available. This is leading to a surge in services and platforms that merge data gathered from the crowd and public transit systems with transport sharing, as well as other traditional transportation services. These platforms then aim to create a far more pleasurable, cheaper, sustainable and convenient travel experience. Shuddle and HopSkipDrive are Ride-sharing services specifically designed for kids. These startups let parents set up pre-scheduled pick-up times for their kids with trusted, thoroughly vetted drivers to help get kids around town for when their parents are too busy. Ford, Opel and BMW are among the first car manufacturers to let car owners earn money by renting out their new vehicles to other drivers. While several big carmakers have already launched business-to-consumer (B2C) car-sharing services, this is the first attempt by major industry players to jump into the peer-to-peer (P2P) car- sharing business. In Spring 2016, Switzerland will debut the world’s first autonomous bus route in the city of Sion. The busses will be manufactured by a French company called Narva, while the system behind the autonomous bus network will be provided by Swiss startup BestMile. Moovel is a transport aggregator app that helps travellers get from A to B without any hassle. It shows real-time information of all transportation options nearby (bus, subway, taxi, car- or bike-share), compares prices and lets you book the best transportation mode, directly within one platform. In order to expand to the North American market, Moovel recently acquired a similar USA-based service called RideScout. getmobility.de fastcompany.net today.com sustainabledevelopmentmagazine.com 42 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Transportation
  • 23. phys.org What if today’s car models can already be made autonomous by only updating their systems? What new opportunities could arise for car-owners, and what new businesses could be founded to grasp some of these? Tesla introduced its autopilot mode through a software update in 2015. Tesla owners can just download the new update and use the driverless mode on highways. As today’s cars are already packed with 60-200 sensors and more than 100 million lines of codes, a more sophisticated update of that code structure could in many cases bridge the gap between current cars and full autonomous driving capabilities. What if people preferred a subscription service with the ability to try out many different cars, and switch between renting cars and an ridesharing service instead of traditional car ownership? Subscription service Clutch lets you flexibly choose between different cars, depending on your daily needs, as an alternative to car ownership and leasing. On the other hand, Uber CEO Travis Kalanick has publicly stated that Uber plans to introduce self-driving cars as soon as the technology is ripe enough. Also, many surveys indicate that when it comes to cars, especially people belonging to the younger generations are less keen on owning a car and rather opt for car-sharing models or public transportation. WHAT IF? What if developing countries leapfrogged a broader adoption of the combustion engine technology and went all electric? China has been implementing ambitious e-mobility plans, providing government incentives for e-vehicles, stricter regulations within its urban areas and other laws. Similar plans are underway in India and Brazil. Developing or emerging countries are increasingly seeing the benefits of them leapfrogging other technologies, such as the landline phone with mobile technology, and are attracted by new leapfrogging opportunities. ? ? ? 44 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Transportation
  • 24. The marketplace is increasingly becoming multichannel, with information only a screen tap away and products easily sellable through social media. In 2016, technology is driving retail towards utility and relevance, putting the consumer at the centre of innovation. The consumer experience becomes key to any brand’s survival. Technology presents retailers with the opportunity to improve the customer’s shopping experience. On- and offline are converging. Retailers need to recognise this, and seize the opportunity to merge data on both sides to deliver a better service to consumers, as the lines between brick-and-mortar stores and online continue to blur. Mobile is a big theme for 2016, offering consumers more payment options, and retailers the perfect synergy between payments, loyalty and customer engagement. RETAIL RETAIL shopsee.co.uk 46 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Retail
  • 25. Gamified marketplace WinUru motivates shoppers to purchase frome-tailersbyofferingafun,engagingandrewardingplatform where brands can tell their stories and engage consumers. i The concept of multichannel retail will be further entrenched in 2016, as leading retailers and brands embrace a new shopper experience, spurred by digital innovation. Retailers must be able to improve on the brick-and-mortar formats while ensuring that they satisfy the customer across all channels; from in-store, to online, to mobile apps, telesales, etc. Naturally, omni-channel engagement across mediums – from mobile, to in-store, television, radio, catalogue, etc. – remains an important part of retailing across platforms. Uber and Spotify joined forces, enabling riders to remotely control the music that plays through an Uber car’s speakers. For Spotify, the collaboration provides an incentive for users to upgrade to its premium level and a unique offering that competitors Pandora, iTunes or YouTube don’t provide. For Uber, it further personalises the customer experience. Facebook partnered with e-commerce service Shopify to enable merchants to sell their products directly through Facebook. Pinterest was the first social media platform to introduce the ‘Buy’ button. Twitter has followed suit. BEYOND THE BRICKS Going forward, retailers will have to think of innovative ways to utilise the physical retail space. Increasingly, experiential retail – shoppertainment – has become an important part of retaining foot traffic. In 2016, it goes beyond the physical retail space and crosses over into a gamified online retail experience. Social goes commercial, following the introduction of ‘buy now’ buttons on networks like Facebook, Twitter and Pinterest. This presents retailers with a new outlet, and the opportunity to extract the big data that comes from consumer interactions on social media. i.ytimg.com wire.co.uk 48 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Retail
  • 26. Consumers want convenience and mobile gives brands the opportunity to add value to the consumer experience by meeting this expectation. As mobile penetration grows, this, coupled with the adoption of connected wearables – smartwatches in particular – will accelerate the adoption of new payment systems. By next year, analysts predict that the mobile sector, known as m-commerce, will process US$ 800 billion globally. A key driver of this is the un(der)banked in developing economies. In addition to m-commerce and other forms of payments, social media pay buttons are another example of recent developments that are changing the way we shop and pay. PURCHASING CONVENIENCE Subscription shopping, collaboration with other brands that can add value to the consumer’s experience, pricing flexibility and mobile apps are all examples of how retailers can meet the consumer’s expectations of convenience. Starbucks reports that about 15% of purchases in its USA stores were paid through its mobile app. By the end of 2015 the company launched a Mobile Order program across the United States so customers can pre-order — avoiding long queues and waiting time. Apple’s iPhone 6 comes equipped with an e-wallet called Apple Pay that stores payment information and lets customers pay for items by holding the iPhone in front of a reader and placing a finger over the fingerprint sensor. H&M teamed up with high-end luxury brand Balmain to offer a limited-edition range. This helped to drive traffic into stores, while leveraging the association with a luxury brand. For Balmain, the collaboration serves to increase brand awareness and to forge a bond with a new generation of potential future customers. paymentweek.com imore.com labelsandlove.eu 50 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Retail
  • 27. sport-locker.net What if consumers could use a virtual assistant to research products and compare prices in real-time? Consumers want convenience and, as virtual assistants like Apple’s Siri improve, consumers will be able to do their product research in real- time. Brands will have to consider how they can add value to this, and reconfigure their businesses. For example, what does the job of a store associate become when consumers have access to a virtual assistant? What does this mean for your business? What if malls were virtual and consumers could have an immersive shopping experience through Virtual Reality? Virtual Reality is going mainstream this year with several brands putting out VR products. If a consumer can have the mall experience from the comfort of their couch, what happens to the brick-and-mortar store? What if an entire store could be personalised and tailored for every individual customer? As consumers increasingly seek more personalised services, how much more personal could it get than a virtual store tailored to every individual customer’s tastes? This could include specifications such as clothing sizes, and colour preferences. WHAT IF? ? ? ? 52 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Retail
  • 28. Consumers are increasingly turning to food products that offer desirable health benefits. Natural ingredients, back-to-basics preparation methods, and a willingness to pay more for what consumers consider beneficial to their health are all trends that show no sign of slowing down in 2016. Meanwhile, as the effects of global warming become harder to ignore, a realisation about the meat industry is spreading: that it is as much a threat to the environment as our consumption of fossil fuels is. This is one factor fuelling the rise of more environmentally friendly and sustainable food trends. From the popularity of superfoods to the consumption of alternative foods that many would have considered inedible, the threat of global warming is about to considerably alter how we source our food. FOOD & DRINK FOOD & DRINK huffingtonpost.com 54 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Food & Drink
  • 29. WE ARE WHAT WE EAT The healthy consumer is one that is increasingly informed about what they eat. Research shows that consumers all over the world are much more conscious of the effects of diet on health and wellness than ever before. Not only are consumers aware, but they are taking matters into their own hands, using food as medicine, snacking on healthier indulgences and eating more ethically in general. Grains and superfoods are winning more popularity, natural and alternative preservation and processing methods are trending, as is the consumption of Imperfect Produce. Clean Eating and Flexi-Diets – such as part-time vegetarianism – is finding more favour with consumers who are not only aware of their diet’s effect on their health and the environment, but are increasingly proactive about changing the way they eat. New versions of old diet fads aren’t the only upcoming trends, however. It now seems that the reduced cost of DNA testing will see an early adoption of diets based on nutrigenomics – the study of the effects of foods and food constituents on gene expression. South African company DNAlysis Biotechnology is marketing a DNA diet to consumers, which includes testing for 13 genetic variations associated with obesity and a tailored diet to match their genetics. The University of Toronto has established a startup, Nutrigenomix, which aims to improve health through personalised nutrition using DNA. They currently have 2,000 authorised providers of this service around the world. – Mail & Guardian/The Guardian Nielsen’s Global Health and Wellness Survey found that an overwhelming number of young people across the globe prefer healthier options and clean food. This is especially true for Generation Z – people younger than 20 – almost half of whom said they are willing to pay premium prices for healthier products. In 2014, France’s third largest supermarket chain, Intermarché, launched a campaign that sought to put an end to food waste. Known as Inglorious Fruits and Vegetables, the campaign celebrates the ‘ugly’ produce that is often considered unfit for consumption and therefore thrown out by growers. In the USA, a start-up known as Imperfect Produce sells “cosmetically challenged” fruits and vegetables. – nytimes.com straight.com onegreenplanet.org investopedia.com i goodthingsguys.com A New York Times poll conducted last year found that an overwhelming majority of Americans are concerned about genetically modified food. 93 percent of respondents want labelling to reflect the product’s engineered nature. Their concerns range from fear that such foods can cause cancer or allergies, in spite of the fact that scientific studies have consistently shown there is no added risk. i 56 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Food & Drink
  • 30. REDUCING HARM Many consumers pay attention to how their buying choices affect the environment, and they are therefore looking for ways of enjoying food with the least possible impact. The consumption of imperfect produce, the movement towards clean eating and flexitarianism, for instance, are examples of the consumer’s desire to reduce the environmental impact caused by our consumption habits. These concerns about the environment and sustainability will be further entrenched as engineered food infiltrates the marketplace. In 2016, it is most likely that food activists will seek popular support to oppose the engineering of food, or demand strict labelling, at best. Expect this to drive consumers even more towards veganism, flexitarianism and other health- conscious ways of eating. Over the years alternative diets like the paleo and raw diets have gained a following, and veganism is now more mainstream than ever. Seeking to re-establish itself in the natural foods movement, Kashi, an American food brand owned by Kellogg’s, made moves last year to regain the trust of finicky consumers who want produce that is sustainably produced. Smaller, upstart brands are often perceived by consumers as healthier and more authentic, which is where consumers are increasingly migrating. – Ad Age Preservation methods that rely on salt, sugar, brine or bacteria have taken off in restaurants, but freezing is the tried-and- tested method of preserving food, that finds most favour with chefs, according to Paul Verica of Heritage Food & Drink. The chef of the award-winning restaurant in Waxham, USA, says this is because freezing doesn’t change the way food tastes. – Nytimes.com i nutritionmythbuster.blogspot.com Dr Mark Hyman of the Cleveland Clinic Center for Functional Medicine coined the term “pegan” to describe the trend of mixing the vegan and paleo diets. Paleo (also known as the caveman diet) consists of meats, nuts, fish and vegetables, while grain products and processed foods are avoided. Veganism is rich in fruit and grain, but it doesn’t incorporate animal products. Combining the best elements of both, Hyman says, results in a balanced and healthy diet. – ABC News Other alternative sources of nutrition heading towards the mainstream, given momentum by growing awareness of the unsustainable global meat industry, are things like 3D-printed food. 3D Printing is already a reality in a lot of industries, and it’s on its way to a plate near you too. Trends like Western Entomophagy mean you can also expect to see meatballs made from insects, or crispy-fried crickets - generally, food that is as environmentally friendly and sustainable as it is scary to fathom consuming. We are bound to see the Farm-to-table trend intensifying, from restaurants that want to appeal to the ethical foodie, to services offering farm-fresh produce delivered to your door. Shutterstock 58 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Food & Drink
  • 31. thechinainvestors.com If more and more people turn to healthy ways of eating – superfoods, grains and the like – how does this affect those crops, the farming industry and food security in general? If everyone is using coconut oil, for example, this creates a surge in demand. When does this outstrip supply, and what happens when this occurs? How can the growth of these crops be sustained? What if the provision of food becomes increasingly personalised? What happens to the retailer? If people are increasingly looking for ways to tailor their diets to match their DNA, how can businesses adapt to cater to this? The retail model will have to change, and the employment of nutritionists at store level, for example, may be called for. What if genetically modified foods don’t take off with Millennials and Generation Zers being so concerned about health? Brands will have to think of innovative ways of delivering what consumers need without compromising the consumer’s desire for healthy, sustainably raised or grown foods. WHAT IF? ? ? ? 60 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Food & Drink
  • 32. The increased pace of mobile adoption is making it more urgent for brands to find innovative ways of engaging a consumer that is increasingly inundated with information, and more and more prone to filtering out that which they do not need. Social media influence is intensifying, thus driving the importance of a more considered approach to leveraging the digital ecosystem. In 2016, Social Goes Commercial, and the line between digital and physical is rapidly becoming blurred. Big Data continues to be a big theme, especially with the arrival of IBM’s Watson, which will change industries significantly due to the technology platform’s cognitive computing abilities. The Artificial Intelligence-powered system answers questions posed to it in natural language, and will serve as an antidote to information overload; interpreting and analysing the streams of data constantly produced through individuals’ interactions with devices. MARKETING & ADVERTISING MARKETING & ADVERTISING medialets.com 62 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Marketing & Advertising
  • 33. In the next decade, analysts predict that smartphone penetration would be closing in on 100% of consumers in most developed nations, making it ubiquitous, with mobile growth in less developed economies not far behind. This makes mobile an important area for brands to develop, in anticipation of the realities of operating in an increasingly mobile environment, where Instant Gratification, and heightened consumer expectations are changing the way people respond to brands and how they communicate. In 2016, we will see social media going commercial. This makes Real-Time engagement hugely important, and this compels brands to understand the consumer more intimately, so as to avoid alienating them, or missing a beat in this fast-moving environment. Mining social media for big data cues will be vital as the Personalisation of services and the depth of the consumer experience has become increasingly non-negotiable. LEVERAGING THE DIGITAL ECOSYSTEM Telling Brand Stories will become a very important part of engaging consumers as the Decline of Trust continues to plague whole industries. This content will be crucial for brands, which will need to convince and convert individuals into genuine Brand Advocates, who are defined more by their propensity towards recommending particular brands or services, rather than their need to extract affirmation from follower numbers, in the way influencers are. Both operate in social media, and in 2016, there will be a shift as brands increasingly see the value of earned social media, the equivalent of vital word-of-mouth. Twitter recently announced a number of partnerships that will make it easier for retailers of any size to sell products, digital goods, or services directly within a Tweet via a Buy Now button. Facebook offers a similar service for Page admins to integrate sales into posts and link to an e-commerce platform. (Twitter) The STM Merci app, available for the iPhone, brings real- time offers and incentives to the 1.2-million daily users of Montreal’s transit system. Rewards target riders by gender and personal preferences. They are also geo-localized. For instance, a bus rider may receive an instant offer from a grocery chain offering Prince Edward Island oysters at a discount if they visit the store in the next hour, or a ‘wink’ from a local coffee shop inviting them for a free coffee because it’s their birthday. (Financial Post) By 2017, video will account for 69% of all consumer internet traffic, according to Cisco. Video-on-demand alone will have trebled. According to Nielsen, 64% of marketers in their survey expect video to dominate their marketing efforts. (Cisco/Nielsen) i webvideomarketingportugal.com razreye.com cdn.com 64 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Marketing & Advertising
  • 34. tridentbusinesssolutions.com Relevance will increasingly become an important measure of a brand’s commitment to providing a valuable service or a quality product to consumers. For baby boomers, bigger was ‘better’, and global conglomerates with a one-size-fits-all approach to marketing and branding prospered. For Millennials on the other hand, a more focused approach – think Localisation, Customisation and Personalisation – is what is most appreciated. This cohort of consumers is moving into their prime and companies that have not yet begun the process of shifting focus to their needs will lose business. Consumers also want to know that they are spending their hard earned cash on companies that share the same concerns as they do. Fewer consumers are willing to buy from a retailer that turns a blind eye to social ills. Consumers are demanding Provenance and Transparency and the response has to be an evolution, from corporate social responsibility to Conscious Business, where brands practically and proactively show concern rather than paying lip service to sharing values with consumers. EMPHASIS ON CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE As we’ve outlined, mobile is an important part of the consumer experience. Brands must use big data to personalise the consumer’s experience. As artificial intelligence becomes more mainstream and further develops, these mechanisms that provide consumers convenience will bring about a need for brands to utilise smart, digital tricks to assist consumers, and thereby add value to their experience. Brands need to ask the question: ‘What does the customer want and what smart solutions are there to meet their needs?’ These are questions that cognitive computing systems like IBM’s Watson and others can answer. Watson reveals data-driven insights and provides solutions to seemingly complex questions by analysing unstructured data. IBM has invited developers and programmers to apply to build apps on Watson. While not yet not confirmed, there is talk of IBM working with Apple to improve the Siri Digital Assistant’s cognitive abilities, which would be a consequential move for an industry that’s always looking for ways to get closer to consumers. Millennials have a highly developed sense of self and are perceived as narcissist. Relevance and personalising their experience are important things to remember in engaging them. American retailer Primark connects with them through their Primania website, where they are given the opportunity to “develop your own unique style profile and share your fashion ideas and inspirations with others.” (Business Insider) Vehicle finance specialist WesBank has signed a deal to lease cars to Uber drivers. Though the first phase will provide up to 1,000 vehicles, the plan is to increase this to 15,000 within two years. Uber wants to draw its drivers — or partners — from poor backgrounds and wants them to run their own cars but because almost all have limited existing income and no credit records, they are unable to get loan finance. (Business Day) pendolinogroup.com 66 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Marketing & Advertising
  • 35. mychroniclife.files.wordpress.com What if brands collaborated with one another to give an increasingly demanding consumer much more value than one brand can on its own? Consumers are much more likely to reward brands that offer them great value and help them save on the greatest commodity of today - time - and, of course, money. If, by collaborating with others, brands can deliver to the consumer offerings that save them both time and money, this could be a leap towards retaining their patronage. What if consumers could have immersive, multi-sensory experiences without having to leave their homes? The arrival of technologies like Virtual Reality, expected to become mainstream due to several brands introducing their VR offerings during the course of 2016, it gives brands the opportunity to explore new, immersive ways of engaging the consumer. What if brands were able to invest far less on marketing and more on improving product and services? As online, and more specifically mobile, moves to overtake traditional media - television, radio, print - brands have the opportunity to create and distribute their own content. Clever execution in this regard cuts the cost of marketing, while maximising access and reach on platforms where not just reach, but also engagement, is far more quantifiable. The feedback on engagement (in the form of big data) can be used (or rather, should be used) to improve on services and product offerings. Social media listening tools are available for this purpose. WHAT IF? ? ? ? 68 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Marketing & Advertising
  • 36. After decades of digital transformation, we are on the brink of a new age: the age of automation. As the physical world around us is becoming more and more computational, data-rich and interlinked, and as new self-learning algorithms are developed, it becomes increasingly feasible and attractive to let machines take on more and more of people’s undesirable or even impossible tasks. One device really stands out from the crowd, poised to become the centrepiece technology for the automation ecosystem: the smartphone. This piece of tech means that virtually every adult in the world has a supercomputer in their pocket. Computers can now resemble anything from a bracelet to a 50-inch television, and when it’s becoming harder to tell a human and a machine customer service representative apart, the world certainly is changing for the more robotic. INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY visualhunt.com 70 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
  • 37. Advances in processing power, speech recognition, mobile connectivity, cloud computing and neural networks have all surged to a critical mass at roughly the same time. Today, these technologies are finally accessible enough, cheap enough, and good enough to usher in an era of intelligent machines. They come to rescue us from a growing number of internet- connected devices,apps and complex software that we feel overwhelmed by. The chase after smart, self-learning algorithms is therefore becoming the new gold rush in the tech industry, with every major tech company, as well as dozens of startups, trying to develop the best Artificial Intelligence (AI) that is able to automate undesirable tasks, provide complex insights and enhance productivity multifold. In November 2015, Google open-sourced its machine learning system in order to accelerate and advance the development of AI systems. Motion AI lets anyone without much tech-literacy build their own AI on their platform. This AI can then be used to automate and improve customer engagement for small or one- man businesses. Companies like Interactions already outsource customer service hotlines to robots. These entities handle the customer service hotlines for big corporations, such as health insurance company Humana. MAKING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ACCESSIBLE 2016 will be the year of the Virtual Assistant. For businesses and individuals alike, the automation of things to be done through smart software will be an important theme that is set to receive lots of attention throughout the year. In the business context, virtual robots will increasingly augment specific processes of businesses, reducing labour demand and overheads. In 2016 significant advances and improvements to well-known Virtual Assistants such as Siri or Google Now are expected, along with a huge boom in other big tech companies launching their own. All these trends will ultimately lead to a massive transformation in the way we interact with technology, as well as the way our economy works. 2016 might show the first strong evidences of rising unemployment due to the adoption of AI systems in knowledge-intensive white collar jobs. Already today, half of North American graduates, for example, end up taking jobs that don’t make use their education. Clara Labs, another AI startup, uses an interplay of humans and machines to automate secretary services such as scheduling and organising just by adding ‘her’ to e-mails. Facebook just rolled out M, its smart virtual assistant that uses AI capabilities paired with human workers, all seamlessly integrated in its popular Facebook Messenger. Besides being able to ask M general questions about weather, location and so on, users can also request M to make reservations, book flights or deliver flowers. InSiliconValleytherearetwonewhotjobsinAI.Oneistherole of AI developer, which involves improving machine learning through highly complex and sophisticated programming and mathematics. The other is being the robo-assistant, who – with a limited skill set – tries to adapt to the new paradigm by being the one who helps out when the AI struggles. i sagmart.com 500.co 72 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
  • 38. We are on the brink of a mass global technology substitution. The personal computer, having long been the centre of technological evolution, is now being replaced by the mobile phone. Over the next few years almost all the people who don’t yet have phones will get one, and almost all phones on earth will become smartphones. Thus, the smartphone itself is close to becoming a universal product for humanity - the first the tech industry has ever had. This shift has many consequences for businesses and consumers alike. The smartphone wars of the last few years have led to the availability of cheap, low-power, ever-more sophisticated smartphone components. Almost anyone is able to use mobile technology as the starting point to come up with new gadgets or applications. The mobile supply chain is dominating everything from innovations in Virtual Reality, to the Internet of Things and Driverless Cars. Because of this Smartphone Ubiquity, services and applications best suited for mobile devices are becoming the dominant digital platforms. We believe that social Media, in particular mobile- based messaging apps are going commercial in 2016, in what we call Messaging As Omni-Interface. MOBILE IS THE NEW SUN Companies are realising where their customers spend most of their time and are coming up with suitable services. More and more messaging apps are including value-adding features, such as P2P payments, location-based information and business-to-customer interactions or virtual assistants into their apps. In 2016, 2 billion consumers worldwide will own a smartphone. By 2020 about 6.1 billion will own one. India is expected to exceed 200 million smartphone users, topping the US as the world’s second- largest smartphone market. Slack: Email is for grandparents. Slack has turned basically every feature of your business, from tracking projects to file sharing to bonus announcements, into messaging. In China, the popular free text and call app, WeChat, has already become a sort of remote control for more than 600 million users. Despite being a messaging app, WeChat also acts as a mobile bank, a promotion channel for brands and celebrities, a way to renew your visa or book reservations at restaurants, to donate to UNICEF and much more. It is the most versatile app there is. visualhunt.com techcrunch.com nuvicomlab.it i 74 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
  • 39. Today we truly live in a connected world. The Internet of Things (IoT), long hyped and talked about, is now finally happening as more and more smart and internet-connected devices enter the market. Today you can buy connected socks, bottles, forks, jewellery, cars, toilets, egg trays, dog collars, shoes and much more. Businesses too are equipping entire manufacturing and logistics facilities and components with IoT sensors and devices to gather performance data and use the resulting insights to improve their efficiency. In retail, the Beaconology trend is really starting to kick off. Although on the scene for some time, the smart Bluetooth devices are finally cheap and easy enough to install, and use, so that small and large-scale retailers are implementing them. This is leading to completely new customer engagement solutions that put traditional retail strategies to shame. THE CONNECTED WORLD WAKES UP This enormous spreading web of connected devices is therefore set to become more and more apparent in our everyday lives. In 2016, we are on the verge of an IoT platform and services explosion with lots of promising opportunities for big corporations and entrepreneurs. A plethora of data analytics solutions and innovative interfaces and platforms that link data tracking with processing and smart algorithms (resulting in smart service solutions) are about to become more widely available. It’s not only objects in shopping malls and smart homes that are getting more connected. Clothes are getting high-tech too. Fashion Technology is the latest trend in the textile and clothing industry with designers, artists and IT startups working on blending technology and fashion. Technologies that can monitor our vitals and change the way fabrics appear or function are being integrated into more textiles and garments. This trend is only just taking off, and still offers plenty of opportunities for businesses to dive in before IT or clothing giants take over. The number of sales at top USA retailers influenced by beacons is expected to jump tenfold in 2016, from over $4bn worth of sales in 2015. i Thingful: Search engine for the Internet of Things that visualises our connected world. Matrix: A device that allows you to create and download applications for the Internet of Things. With 15 onboard sensors, Matrix allows for more than 32,000sensor combinations that let you control the temperature of your home, monitor your small business after-hours, and more. Particle: A prototype-to- production platform for developing your own Internet of Things products. The Nadi Smart Fitness Pants by a startup called Wearable Experiments are connected yoga pants that use haptic feedback to slowly guide its wearer into perfect alignment. If the wearer is in the correct pose an ‘om’ sound greets their accomplishment. By the end of 2016 some 6.4 billion ‘things’ -- devices from toasters and kettles to cars and hospital equipment -- will be connected to the internet, according to analyst firm Gartner. That figure represents a 30% increase from 2015. i estimote.com walnutstlabs.com tweaktown.com 76 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
  • 40. digitaltrends.com What if your business would focus on mobile only? How would you restructure? What would become more important, what would be less important? In just five years, almost everyone in this world will own a mobile phone. A mobile-only strategy therefore doesn’t sound that crazy anymore. It even opens up many more possibilities as smartphones, for example, integrate many more technologies than a standard personal computer. Companies able to create successful mobile products and services don’t require a lot of capital, can scale easily and quickly without additional costs, and are ultimately extremely agile. What if services and experiences – driven by the IoT – become more important than actual products, for all kinds of businesses? The real value of the IoT revolution is the service opportunities it enables. It is often overlooked that we are very much living in a service economy - which is continuing to evolve into an experience economy. The dissemination of the IoT will boost this shift, creating once unimaginable service and experience solutions. Now is the time to get on this train and start developing innovative solutions. Already today, the top tech companies aren’t product manufactures, but rather ones developing service and experience platforms. About one-third of teenagers already talk to their phones (to ask for directions, help with homework, or play music). What does that mean regarding your customer engagement strategy? For young people the smartphone is literally becoming an extension of their minds. These kids and young adults find it hard to imagine a life without their smartphones as they have become part of who these people are. The 24/7 connectivity, for them, becomes a fundamental human right and their smartphones become their friends. The better virtual assistants and their natural language processing technology becomes, the more young people will use it. It becomes like talking to a friend who knows you inside out and who can make your life easier. WHAT IF? ? ? ? 78 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Information & Technology
  • 41. Disruptive digitalisation is upending the way we consume entertainment across the board, rendering old business and service models increasingly obsolete. More and more, it’s becoming evident that consumers see no significant divide between digital and traditional media channels, and brands that fail to shift focus are almost guaranteed to lose ground. Traditional media like television, as we know it, will never be the same. Technologies and services that entertain people on-demand, like video- streaming service Netflix, are changing how consumers interact with content. Similar shifts are changing the way music is distributed. The media industry playing field is levelling, with smaller players like YouTube vloggers eating into the audiences that were previously tuned in to mainstream media channels. Consumers are taking advantage of the many options now available to them. As such, the smaller players are finding ways of bypassing big brands, creating content on platforms that are allowing them to compete with established industry giants. MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT gigaom.com 80 JANUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
  • 42. The divided landscape that has always defined media and entertainment is making way for a more fluid and multi-faceted eco- system, where digitalisation is accelerating Transmedia Storytelling, and creating a more diversified content universe, across the sector. In publishing, we already know that connected screens have all but destroyed physical revenues, and research has named Facebook and Twitter as the leading Millennial news sources. Interestingly, emerging markets, like China, will increasingly sustain traditional media and drive consumer shifts in traditional media such as cinema, which is still a relative novelty in some parts of the world. It is well documented that, in the music industry, illegal P2P sharing and digital sales have replaced physical albums. Streaming has also replaced terrestrial radio as a promotional tool. This has forced every level of the recording industry o focus efforts on multiple platforms and engagement models, such as live performances and innovative content creation and delivery. MULTI-CHANNEL FLUIDITY The TV set is no longer the only channel for personal video consumption, as consumers increasingly watch ‘television’ online. Consuming other content on the second screen; such as phones, tablets, phablets and more, is also on the rise. As in the music industry, the Videoquake – the name given to the ongoing disruptive boom of online video streaming – is accelerating the death of traditional programmed broadcast television, with more consumers switching off the good old TV set in favour of consuming on- demand video content online. Apps like Periscope and the increasing importance of Real- Time content delivery is certain to fundamentally shake up the broadcasting of news, sports and other live events in 2016. Even gaming, which is the fastest-growing Media & Entertainment category, is invading the mainstream, thanks to digital evolutions and innovations. Terminator: Genisys, the latest instalment in the movie franchise was considered a flop in North America after it tanked at the box office. But it is a flop no more, after posting stunning box office numbers in China, the new growth engine for the global box office. The sci-fi sequel opened with a whopping $27.4 million on its first day in China, making it the fourth- biggest opening day in that territory ever. (Forbes) eSports are going mainstream. Well, that’s not strictly true. The world finals of Dota 2 were watched by 20 million people this year; last year, League of Legends picked up more than 27 million for its finals, and 11.2 million of them watched it live. eSports are already mainstream! (The Guardian) Over the last decade, CD sales have declined by 80%, while streaming — which not long ago contributed a negligible sum — now makes up 32% of the annual revenue of record labels, according to the Recording Industry Association of America. NYTimes.com i According to Twitter, 87% of tweets about TV come from mobile devices, 93% of people active on Twitter during primetime hours are tweeting about television, and 50% of users look up TV shows and advertisement hashtags to see what others are saying. i new.jrn.msu.edu slugmag.com telegraph.co.uk pvpantherprint.og 82 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
  • 43. The decline of traditional television is evident with plummeting TV subscriptions in territories where consumers have access to services like Netflix, Hulu and even (the now ubiquitous) YouTube. In addition, the arrival of the new Apple TV indicates that apps may soon replace programmed TV channels. In the music industry, online streaming has eroded profits and many artists are still trying to navigate the new environment where album sales are no longer a viable income stream. Live performances and digital sales, on the other hand, are growing, but not fast enough. The power of the recording giants is diminishing, putting artists in a much more powerful position to decide on the fate of their own work. The streaming of web content doubled in volume in 2014 and internet video, streamed to television screens, is growing at a rapid pace. It is expected to increase four-fold by 2019. Media companies ought to streamline their delivery accordingly, as TV channels and networks, radio stations and other forms of traditional distribution models are fast losing ground to digital and the multi-platform ecosystem that consumers clearly prefer. In the second quarter of 2015, Netflix said its global subscriber numbers grew to 65,6 million, buoyed by popular original programmes like Daredevil and Orange Is the New Black. (Netflix) Two days after the debut of British singer Adele’s latest single ‘Hello’, the accompanying video was streamed, on average, more than 1 million times per hour. By the end of its first week on the platform, it had passed 100 million global views. It was later reported that Adele may follow Taylor Swift’s cue by not allowing Spotify to stream her album on release, to avoid disappointing sales. i i ACCESS OVER OWNERSHIP As of 2014, 22.8 million USA households (19% of the total) did not have any type of linear TV subscription. That’s expected to jump to 26.8 million (21.8% of total) by 2017. (Convergence Group) i cdn.thepennyhoarder.com standard.co.uk 84 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
  • 44. The multifaceted ecosystem of content delivery that the modern consumer demands are tied to the flexibility that today’s consumer requires. Gone are the days of pre-programmed cable and satellite packages. They want affordable, tailored content experiences that transcend platforms, and as connectivity and access increase, so will the consumer’s power to choose, making differentiation important for brands competing in this space. Already, OTT (over-the-top) services are reaping the rewards of their month-to-month, unlimited streaming subscription models, and SVOD (subscription video-on-demand) is growing rapidly as a result. The concept of access over ownership is becoming more and more significant in video content delivery. By the year 2020 the number of connected devices in use on the planet will reach 25 to 40 billion. No matter how you look at it, that shift is huge, considering the current number of connected devices already (marginally) outnumbers the human population. With more devices at their disposal, and with the amount of content that is posted online every minute of the day, consumers will not be short of entertainment options. Media companies that succeed will be those that add niche, flexible value to their experience of consuming media and entertainment content. The growing importance of live entertainment and digital disruptions in live experiences will be very important in this cluster. Virtual Reality, for example, looks set to make a mainstream splash in 2016, and it is bound to revolutionise the consumer experience. TAILORED CONSUMER EXPERIENCE Video streaming doubled in 2014, and is expected to increase four- fold by 2019. Currently, YouTube has over a billion users — almost one-third of all people on the internet. Overall, YouTube reaches more 18-34 year-olds than any cable network in the USA, where the hours they spend watching videos is up 60% year-on-year. Nielsen research says 71% of consumers agree that the amount of TV content available is “overwhelming”. 61% say there are too many shows and not enough time to watch them. i goodnatureddog.com fancamsite.com American network HBO made the leap in 2014, and soon launched its own standalone streaming services HBO Go and HBO Now. CBS launched All Access, the BBC launched iPlayer and South Africa’s Multichoice, the owners of DSTV, launched DSTV Now. Multichoice also recently launched ShowMax, on news that Netflix was eyeing the South African market. 86 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
  • 45. thecomputerguyz.co.za What happens when the meaning of ‘mainstream’ is no longer what it used to be? If 20 million people are watching an eSports tournament, do we still refer to what is evidently an enormous culture as niche? When a survey finds that Youtube stars are bigger than Hollywood stars in terms of influence and following, is it not a matter of the digital world disrupting the meaning of our language? What if programmed television, as we know it, becomes completely obsolete? Consumers picking and choosing what they want to watch and when they want to watch it completely disrupts the way traditional broadcasting works. In the near future we will see how content ownership will be further disrupted and distribution will become increasingly democratised. What if the live experience becomes completely nerdified in the face of innovations like Virtual Reality and the visual capabilities of app-based television? With live entertainment evolving and gaming also experiencing an explosion, the combination of the two will completely change how we interact with the live experience. Imagine a music festival where everyone’s experience is virtual, or a comic book that comes to life in your living room. WHAT IF? ? ? ? 88 FEBRUARY2016 Industries Under Disruption | Media & Entertainment
  • 46. OUR RADAR Lacuna is made up of a diverse team of individuals who help shape our perspectives as we turn trends into innovation opportunities. Here Isaac Matsa, Head of Business Development, shares more about how Lacuna Radar works as a product and service. His focus is to create relationships that have long-term, sustained value for the company among new customers and markets. What products and services do companies want from Lacuna Radar? There are three key segments: For companies without large R&D budgets, we offer relevant and up-to-date trend information updated regularly on the Lacuna Radar platform. This comes with a Trend Content Plan and the option of a custom industry-specific Content Plan such as Finance, Food & Beverage, Retail and Packaging. For those who are in a niche industry and require specific insights, we populate the basic trend platform with their own data and technologies. Some customers, especially those with global innovation teams, also make use of our innovation management consultancy service. This straddles the line between a creative agency that provides an in-sourced R&D service and a peak performance business optimisation team. What sets Lacuna Radar apart from other trend agencies in the market? We combine rational, evidence-based trend research and scenario analysis – with emotional, intuitive, creative processes in a 4-step FEI methodology – to systematically ‘connect the dots’ and identify unique opportunity spaces for innovation. Our trend software contains over 160 trends and 3,000 inspirations rigorously analysed and constantly updated by a professional team of trend researchers and futurists. The convenience and ease-of-use of a cloud-based platform enables greater collaboration across global innovation teams in a structured way 24/7. Over the last decade, our leaders have worked with over 1,000 innovation practitioners around the world to sustainably innovate new products, services and business models by combining trends, insight and commercial expertise in one place. What is the trend? Do companies use a curated Trend Content Plan or custom build their own? It works both ways. Lacuna Radar’s global Trend Content Plan provides a bird’s-eye view of mega, macro and micro trends. Those which are most relevant to a particular company, become the foundation on which to build a custom Radar that speaks to their industry, region or market segment. This way, we help companies build focused innovation portfolios within their industry that also mitigates the risks of cross-industry disruption. What kind of support is provided to companies with a Radar? Before we embark on building a new Radar, we get the entire organisation’s innovation team on the same page and coach the leadership through the process. If I bring five people together right now and ask what innovation is, or what a mega trend is, I’d probably get five different definitions. We ‘on-board’ new customers with a trend workshop to clarify key concepts, areas of focus and to map out the project plan. A key outcome is a Trends Relevance Map that highlights the most relevant, specific trends which link to strategic themes, for example Creative Customer Engagement, Smart Data Economy, Demographic Change etc. Tech support is provided throughout the duration of the subscription. The platform is ever evolving and subject to upgrades with better versions. A trend team is assigned to each client to load content updates at agreed-upon intervals to ensure relevant and up-to-date information is always on hand. Some customers require ongoing access to a trend analyst for in-depth evaluation of macro and micro trends against the bigger backdrop of global and local news and events. Describe a typical day for you: It varies from research and back-to-back calls, to travelling to Johannesburg or meeting with clients in Cape Town. Before I can present a solution, I establish the client’s needs and challenges (short and long term) to identify how best Lacuna can fill the gap. Who do you engage with in the innovation space - directors, innovation, strategy, marketing, etc? I deal with the C-suite - CEOs, Managing Directors, Chief Innovation Officers, Marketing and Brand Directors, R&D and Chief Technology Officers. 90 FEBRUARY2016 Our Radar: Interview