The document discusses the impending scarcity of materials critical to electronics and advanced technologies. It notes that prices of rare earth metals like neodymium have risen dramatically in recent years, and shortages are expected to severely impact production processes in the near future, between 2011-2019. While higher prices may not directly affect all applications, securing supply is a major concern for manufacturers. The document examines historical parallels like Britain's response during WWII, and proposes solutions like substitution, recycling, policy coordination, and reducing consumption to manage austerity. It argues all sectors must urgently address this complex problem to avoid economic and social risks.

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COVERSTORY
MATERIAL SCARCITY
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Most of us can’t imagine a life without mobile phones.
But do you know what a smart phone consists of in
terms of materials? Or what materials are actually
semi conductive? Can you name the elements applied
in permanent magnets or electronics in general? Even
though electronics are widely applied in industrial
design engineering practice, you probably can’t.
Likewise, many IDE students and professionals are
unaware of the impending scarcity of these materials
and its consequences, as are many other technologic
entrepreneurs and politicians. However the message
researches show is very clear: That has to change,
and it has to change fast.
WHY THE CRITICALITY OF
ELEMENTS IS A BIG PROBLEM

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RARE EARTHS
ELECTRONICS
METAL ALLOYS MAGNETSOTHER
CERAMICS
CATALYSTS
GLASS
MATERIALS SCARCITY
IN A NUTSHELL
The risk of critical materials supply disruption
through the ‘turbulent teens’ (2011 – 2019)
will not mean that we will be running out of
these materials completely. Instead it will result
in intense fluctuations in prices and disruptions
to normal supply. Kooroshy et al. (2010) sees
materials scarcity as “the amount of extraction
that is profitable under market conditions.”
Simply said, according to the most basic
economic laws, these materials are going to
become much more expensive. This exponential
price rise is already going on: Reported in the
Financial Times, in 2010 Neodymium oxide
saw a price rise of 61.4 percent. This price rise
grew to 233.3 percent in 2011.
Exceptions such as wind turbines and some
motor blocks aside, price rises aren’t the
main problem though. That’s because these
materials are used even by large manufacturers
in very small quantities. Peck concludes: “The
financial impact of the price rise itself is limited
in many industrial applications, but most
manufacturers have another concern. Many
of them simply want to secure their supply. So
instead of buying the materials for one year,
they’re buying materials for longer production
spans. This approach when allied with market
seculation and national ‘stockpiling’ causes
market distortions. Then these materials
become the bottleneck in an entire production
process.”
Furthermore, looking at the dates it is also
noticeable that the disruptive consequences
that materials scarcity could have on society
are going to be felt at a very short term.. Peck
wouldn’t even say that this is a 2015 problem.
“Take a report from Sigma-Aldrich for instance.
In this report, among editorials about the issue
suddenly you find a table listing a whole bunch
of materials of which support is seen as ‘tight’.
In other words, critical. The issue of materials
scarcity is a 2011 issue.”
MATERIALS AND ENERGY
New approaches are needed to extract rare
elements from the earth. The point of peak
production is already in the past for a number
of elements, presenting quite a challenge
for future extraction rates at a time of rising
demand.
Adding further complexity to the problem is
the fact that further mining also requires more
energy. This comes at a time when, as many
researchers agree, energy itself is becoming
a scarce resource. This dual challenge of
materials and energy scarcity is what makes
a large-scale application of more sustainable
energy sources awfully difficult. Peck is clear

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about the dilemma: “There’s an article in the Scientific
American in 2009, sketching a path to solve the worldwide
energy demand by sustainable resources in 2030. But next
to all sorts of practical implications, where are you going
to get the materials and energy from to produce all these
turbines, PV cells, etcetera, in the timescales proposed?
Such writing can give those who prefer to ‘put off today
what you can do tomorrow’ a false sense of security.”
FROM TRADE ISSUES TO
GEOPOLITICS
From an economic perspective, the implications are
obvious. But can the issue manifest itself beyond this
dimension into the area of geopolitics? Could conflicts
break out over these materials? This might seem an odd
question, but at this stage researchers and politicians
are already looking at the issue from this perspective.
For example, it is estimated that 97% of the total world
supply of these materials today is controlled by China. It is
argued that such vendor power may cause the free market
principle to be no longer applicable to balance supply-
demand dynamics.
THE BRITISH APPROACH AND
“THE OTHER MAN’S JOB”
It would certainly not be the first time in history that
conflicts arise over material resources. However, the last
time that the scarcity of materials was a very real issue in
Europe is much more recent than one would suspect. This
happened during WWII, when Nazi Germany conducted
a campaign to cut off Britain’s supply of raw materials,
called the “Battle of the Atlantic”. The severity of such a
The British already had quite a struggle fighting off
submarines in the First World War. At a certain stage
they were so desperate that the Board of Invention and
Research was established to assess any proposal to
locate, track, destroy, neutralize or evade the U-boat, the
German submarine. Many suggestions were made, for
instance to arm specially selected swimmers with sharp
hammers to pierce the hull of a hostile submarine, or
to pour green paint into the sea that would cover the
enemy periscope. Slow progress with more conventional
anti-submarine measures eventually led the board to
consider the use of seagulls to indicate the presence
of submarines. This idea was fanatically promoted by
the wealthy businessman Thomas Mills. He taught the
seagulls to locate periscopes by using submarine decoys
carrying fish, with only the periscope sticking out of the
water. Much like Pavlov’s dogs would be triggered for
food when hearing a bell, the seagulls would be drawn
to any periscope they could see. This would give away
a submarine location. It’s a remarkable example of out-
of-the-box thinking, but acceptance of those ideas in a
conservative naval environment was inevitably risky to the
reputation of the BIR.
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SOLVING U BOAT PROBLEMS
and dynamics.
Leaflet issued during the Second World War by
the British government. The slogan “Make-do
and Mend” was used to encourage British citi-
zens not to waste anything, clothes for instance.

5. COVERSTORY
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supply restriction was already well known and
Sir Winston Churchill confessed afterwards that
it was “the only thing that ever really frightened
me during the war.”
However, the British had learnt much from
the First World War. Preparations were taken
to a much higher level from the moment it
became clear that the risk of war against Nazi
Germany was substantial. A key point here
was the consensus reached in 1936, amongst
government and industry that ‘business as usual’
was no longer an option. A ministry of Supply
was created and the government really worked
together with industry to try to understand its
total material requirements. Consequently, the
entire British system was reshaped to build up
resources and so forth. And actually Britain was
just in time, having finished the plan by August
1939 just a month before the war broke out.
During wartime, quick adaptations to fix weak
spots in the system were also possible as a
result of this plan. Peck reflects, “…one could
compare it to scenarios and simulations that
are carried out today. It’s astonishing to see
that they were able to do this at such a level
at that time, without spreadsheets and complex
simulation modelling.”
As part of this plan, the reduction in
consumption also turned out to be an important
factor in the success of this system. There was
much less attention to products that weren’t
essential for war. The design of products also
played a significant part, as was the case with
the WD 2-8-0 “Austerity” Locomotive, designed
specifically for military use. The British case thus
shows the notion that winning the war meant
not only fighting German troops. In the society-
wide system, every British citizen did his or her
bit.
THE CURRENT CHALLENGE
AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
However successful, it is not suggested that the
strategy the British used in WWII can simply be
transferred without adaptation to current times.
The point is that compared to such a case, the
challenge of the first half of the 21st century
will not present us with anything really new.
However, the challenge will manifest itself on
a widespread, multi-dimensional, global scale
with no quick and easy fixes available.
So far only the ‘problem statement’ was paid
attention to. Next to describing the challenge,
the scientists and policymakers have also
looked at possible solution pathways. Below is
a brief summary of the main points:
The importance of substitution is
often stressed, especially in emergent
technologies. Product innovation is argued
to be a key element in such a strategy,
using substitution principles but also simply
less material, designing for recycling or
reuse. The use of nano-technology could
prove interesting as well, but its possible
dependence on scarce metals makes
things complicated.
It is also argued that today’s mitigation
strategies (such as recycling and
substitution) are necessary but insufficient.
To adequately deal with the shortages
that are expected, an international policy
of managed austerity should be created
as soon as possible. Multidisciplinary
knowledge development seems to be
pivotal in raising sufficient awareness
about the issue. It should be a “concerted
effort” consisting of both bottom up
initiatives (e.g. student design projects) and
top-down approaches (making policy).
Next to this, a coordinated response to
the accompanying energy shortage is also
deemed necessary.
Reduction in consumption seems to be
a key element in policy proposals. For
instance, energy consumption levels
should be reduced to the level of the
1950s in 2030 and product lifetimes
should be tripled by then.
Industrial design engineers can help to address
the scarcity of materials in different ways.
Already in the first steps proposed it is argued
that industrial design engineers are quite fit to
facilitate the process. As Köhler et al. (2010) put
it, “although industrial design engineers can by
no means single-handedly solve the emerging
issue of materials scarcity they hold key abilities
to counteract the risk of material scarcity.”
Conclusions
The criticality of materials is an extremely
complex issue which is very hard to solve. The
first steps can be taken quite quickly, but the
issue is poorly addressed in industry up till
now (Köhler et al. 2010). Although neglecting
the problem could be an actual threat to the
profession, the problem is also not very well
known in the industrial design discipline.
Fortunately the theme is emerging in education
in Delft, in master courses and for example
with the current graduation project by Ivana
Moerland. She will conduct an audit among
Dutch companies in the technological sector
about their attitude towards the issue and
perform research on possible consequences for
industry.
Of course, it is an immense challenge to bring
about a widespread change in consumption
levels in affluent societies. Adding to that
challenge is that even the threat itself can’t be
agreed upon. Much is uncertain about how the
issue is going to develop, partly just because
it is so complex. Peck is quite certain about it:
“The British started planning for the worst case
scenario in 1936 and they were dead right
about that. Looking at the facts today, there is
very little reason for us not to do the same.” If a
large-scale adaptation can be introduced over
longer period of time, the impact on society can
be reduced but time for this is running out. All
the more reason to start acting now.
WANT TO KNOW MORE?
There’s much more scientific reading on the
subject. Köhler, Bakker and Peck (2010) and
Brehmer, Smulders and Peck (2010) sketch a
path for researchers, industry and governments
for the coming five to ten years. More on the
historical case can be found in the article
written by Peck, Bakker and Diederen (also in
2010). The latter article also contains a short
literature review of the subject.
Finally, organized by KIVI NIRIA, a conference
in which the subject will be addressed will also
be held in Delft on November 23rd.