Masse critique

Masse Critique

25 oct 2011
Next & CoWorking

lundi 12 décembre 11 1

Occupy WallStreet

We have shown what we are capable of in mass. We have shown how we can circumnavigate the traditional
forms of mainstream media to affect a message. We have shown how we can circulate amongst ourselves
images and videos of events that can reach such a tremendous viewership in hours and days, when
decades before us, these same practices took months and years. It is now time to start facilitating change.
We have already reached critical mass. We are all connected through social media now. Millions of people
collectively.

I think what it is time to do now is start petitioning the government. We should start to devise petitions and
test the formal structures of power. Now that we have reached critical mass, and the forums are all in place,
(...)

ChicagoT 2 points 4 days ago
Sorry you are not even close to critical mass.... until this movement has more than a few million active participants it's still a
special interest group.... you'll end up lobbying like the rest of them....
reply permalink

MarcTwane 2 points 3 days ago
Once these movements start to really address the issues at hand, and the most intelligent and well versed are called to
speak, you will see the popularity grow. There is easily over a million people who are following this movement via
Facebook. And that is critical mass.
If real concrete ideas start to be organized in each one of these movements across the United States, you will see alot
« Don't confuse following
more people participating. Perhaps if more time was spent on editing and enhancing the video quality of the LIverstream
in New York, more people will start following it as well. For now the viewership has completely stagnated.
reply permalink with being involved... I follow
ChicagoT 1 points 3 days ago college football... I'm not
Don't confuse following with being involved... I follow college football... I'm not involved...
involved... »
http://occupywallst.org/forum/letter-of-occupation-and-the-next-logical-step-in-/


Qu’entend-on par «masse critique» ?

masse critique
=
la nombre suffisant
d'utilisateurs pour qu’un
Question
service soit viable. Sommes-nous tous à la même
phase de développement ?
(l’offre rencontre la 1. Découverte
demande) 2. Validation
3. Efficacité
4. Changement d’échelle
5. Consolider
6. Conservation

http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/


Retour d’expérience (25 minutes)

• WIITHAA : Nicolas Buttin
• DeWays : Alexandre Grandremy
• La Ruche Qui Dit Oui : Guilhem Chéron
• Next & CoWorking : Hayat Ouatahar
• Super marmite : Olivier Desmoulin + Marc Chataigner + Myriam
Magra + Severine Figuls
• BuzzCar : Robin Chase

• Nathan Stern
• Benjamin Tincq Questions
• Glenn Rolland Taille de la communauté,
Nombre de membres,
• Nathalie Ortiz
Pourcentages de membres actifs,
• Marine Jouan
Nombre de transactions,
• Antonin Léonard
Depuis combien de temps,
Actions déjà menées pour
atteindre la masse critique, ...


Confrontons la théorie


Loi de Metcalfe


Loi de Metcalfe

Robert Metcalfe, fondateur de la société
3M, a énoncé une loi empirique
établissant l’utilité d’un réseau,
s’appliquant tout aussi bien au réseau
téléphonique, au fax ou aux réseaux
sociaux :
« L’utilité d’un réseau est
proportionnelle au carré du
nombre de ses utilisateurs »

http://academic.research.microsoft.com/Publication/3381452/metcalfe-s-law-a-network-becomes-more-valuable-as-it-reaches-more-users


Loi de Metcalfe

While letting the members know the exact size of the community may not be
very helpful in the very early stages in its lifecycle, research has shown that
new members who join a social group tend to be optimistic, overestimating
what the potential benefits of joining are, and underestimating the likely
costs of involvement. As a result, the positive effects of community size will
outweigh the possible negative effects and are likely to have a greater effect on
member attraction than not letting the members know the size of the community
at all (Butler, 2001).

Dissecting the Critical Mass of Online Communities towards a Uniﬁed Theoretical Model
Faculty of Science, Utrecht University Department of Information and Computing Sciences
Author: Eric Booij (E.Booij@students.uu.nl) Supervisor: Remko Helms (r.w.helms@uu.nl)


Comment ne pas grandir trop vite



- No startup that scaled prematurely passed the 100,000 user
mark.

- 93% of startups that scale prematurely never break the $100k
revenue per month threshold.

- Startups that scale properly grow about 20 times faster than
startups that scale prematurely.

http://startupgenome.cc/a-deep-dive-into-the-anatomy-of-premature-sca


Customer -

How to scale customer dimension prematurely:
Spending too much on customer acquisition before product/ market fit
Overcompensating missing product/market fit with marketing and
press
Spending money in poor performing acquisition channels.

Stats: Inconsistent startups are 2.3 times more likely to spend more than
one standard deviation above the average on customer acquisition.

Examples of startups that prematurely scaled on the customer dimension:
Color, Webvan, Pets.com




Because the shared identity of online communities only becomes
fixed at the point of maturity, Westland also advices that
management does not settle for a particular scope or audience
for the community until reaching the critical mass. This approach
is called ”adaptive execution of strategy”, and it suggests that in
order to assure the largest user base as possible, management
should respond to member requests, desires, feedback and
interests flexibly for as long as they can.
« Do not settle for a particular scope or
audience for the community until
reaching the critical mass. Before that
tipping point, listen and talk to your
community »



Product

How to scale product dimension prematurely:
Building a product without having validated problem/solution fit,
Investing into scalability of the product before product/market fit,
Adding lots of “nice to have” features

In Kenya, though, M-Pesa reached critical mass quite quickly and has grown rapidly. Ignacio
Mas and Dan Radcliffe have explained how this 2007 startup managed to get more than half
of Kenyan adults using this mobile payments method that allows P2P and P2B payments
and transfers.
They attribute a good part of the success to the fact that M-Pesa was solving a very
real problem: people didn’t have convenient ways to transfer money to each other and they
needed to because of many families that « They attribute a good and rural areas
were separated between cities part of the
success to the fact that M-Pesa was
solving a very real problem: people
didn’t have convenient ways to transfer
money to each other and they needed to
because of many families that were
separated between cities and rural areas »

http://pymnts.com/blast-off-how-two-sided-platforms-ignited/


Product

How to scale product dimension prematurely:
Building a product without having validated problem/solution fit,
Investing into scalability of the product before product/market fit,
Adding lots of “nice to have” features

Stats: Inconsistent startups write 3.4 times more lines of code in the
discovery phase and 2.25 times more code in efficiency stage. Inconsistent
startup outsource 4-5 times as much of their product development than
consistent startups.

In discovery phase 60% of inconsistent startups focus on validating a
product and 80% of consistent startups focus on discovering a
problem space. It's widely believed amongst startup thought leaders, that
successful startups succeed because they are good searchers and failed
« In discovery phase 60% of inconsistent
startups achieve failure by efficiently executing theon validating a product and
startups focus irrelevant.
80% of consistent startups focus on
Examples of startups that prematurely scaled the problemdimension: Cuil,
discovering a product space »
Webvan, Joost, Google Wave, Slide, 6Apart, most startups that don't find
product market fit or "build something nobody wants".



Once you’ve determined that the sales funnel process you’ve designed is
working in a repeatable and scalable way, with a viable business model —
i.e. for SaaS businesses, the cost to acquire a customer (CAC) is less than a
third of customer lifetime value (LTV), and CAC is recoverable in less than 12
months — then you’re ready to scale the business.

http://gigaom.com/2010/11/28/accelerate-your-startup-spend-to-scale-the-business/


Évalutation de la masse critique



Masse critique = 15% d'une communauté.

Thus the immediate goal of any Social Network is to hit that 15%
saturation of the community they are targeting, but this raises the
problem of how best to address Critical Mass when the target community is,
for example, the population of the UK. To achieve 15% of 60,000,000 (the
approximate population of the UK), 9,000,000 people need to sign up (and use
regularly) before Critical Mass is achieved – a prohibitively high threshold.




Par densité géographique? D’utilisateurs ? D’offre ?
Proportion d’utilisateurs actifs (/utilisateurs inscrits) sur une plate-forme ?
Par nombre de pairs ? (followers, friends, ...)
Fréquence de visite par utilisateur?
Nombre d’interactions moyennes entre utilisateurs ?
...



P = I(F x R x U x V)/(D x N)
P = Perceived User Value, I = Influence, F = Frequency, R = Relevance, U = Uniqueness, V =
Value, D = Distance of relationship, N = Community population size

Critical Mass is achieved by increasing the numerator.




which can be done in the following ways:

1. Leverage existing networks and relationships
The closer the relationships that individuals have with others, the more frequent the communication becomes
because there is more in common, more shared time together, more shared experiences and so on. Thus starting a
Social Network amongst an already-strong network, where conversations are already happening regularly and
relationships are strong is an important factor in achieving good content that precedes Critical Mass.

2. Restrict the topics of conversation
By decreasing the scope of conversation that can be held through the Social Network, you ensure that a
higher proportion of the comments are relevant to the individuals that are using it. (Ex : MySpace back to music)

3. Demonstrate the value that users achieve
Showing photos, leads, connections, friends, “likes” or any other statistic is a reasonably public way not only
encourages others to join to reap the same rewards, but also triggers a competitiveness amongst some users,
further increasing the rate of adoption.

4. In order to be a big fish, shrink the size of the pool
« The principle behind this is that at
Critical Mass is essential to the success of a Social Network, but Critical Mass is not dependant on the size of the
target community. (Ex : Facebook reached saturation within a single university before it spread to a second, a third
each enlargement of the community,
and, eventually, opened up to the rest of the university world). Only after Facebook had reached saturation
within the student communities did it open its doors to the world.
the saturation never dropped below the
The principle behind this is that at each enlargement of the community, the saturation never dropped
below the Critical Mass. Critical Mass. »



Trouver les clusters

3. Exploit irregular network topologies.
In the last 90s, most people assumed that dating websites was a “winner take all
market” and Match.com had won it, until a swath of niche competitors arose (e.g.
Jdate) that succeeded because certain groups of people tend to date others from
that same group. Real-life networks are often very different from the idealized,
uniformly distributed networks pictured in economics textbooks. Facebook exploited
the fact that social connections are highly clustered at colleges as a “beachhead” to
challenge much bigger incumbents (Friendster). By finding clusters in the network
smaller companies can reach critical mass within those sub-clusters and then
expand beyond.
« Identifier les clusters (grappes,
ensembles, amas) au sein de la
communauté et au delà. »
Ex: Trajet Bourges - Paris sur CoVoiturage.fr
Il n’existe pas de trajet de train en moins de 4 heures, alors que c’est 2
heures en voiture. Cluster de covoiturage.fr, les Paris-Berruyers

http://cdixon.org/2009/08/25/six-strategies-for-overcoming-chicken-and-egg-problems/


Double tranchant

As
was
mentioned
earlier,
the
critical
mass
plays
the
role
of
a
double-edged

sword
because
it
can
also
lead
to
the
death
of
a
community.
Therefore,
the

3inal
point
I
would
like
to
stress
is
that
it
is
important
not
to
focus
too
much
on

achieving
a
critical
mass,
but
also
aim
at
iterating
on
a
community’s
maturity
by

providing
a
steady
3low
of
quality
content,
adding
new
features
and
organizing

contributions
in
a
proper
manner.



L’équilibre de Nash

"Rappel, c’est l’équilibre de Nash, [de John Forbes Nash, ndlr] qui a donné
naissance à la théorie des jeux : c’est une situation dans laquelle l’équilibre
entre plusieurs joueurs est devenu stable grâce à leur collaboration et du
coup, personne ne modifie sa stratégie sans affaiblir sa position actuelle"

"Mais attention, plus le niveau de collaboration dans le "voisinage" est fort,
plus la tentation d’agir en électron libre est forte, ce qui veut dire que pour
des bénéfices importants, un seul individu peut nuire à la stabilité d’un
réseau."

Ex: Super Marmite et la micro-communauté dans le 15ème
Des utilisateurs se servent du site en circuit fermé, jusqu’à court-circuiter le
site en se contactant directement.

http://www.atelier.net/fr/articles/stabilite-de-structure-dun-reseau-social-tient-taille


Principes pour faire grandir sa communauté


Law of context

Limite de 150 personnes suivies.

Law of Context

The law of context is a rule about the environment in which a message spreads. Small changes in the
context of a message can determine whether or not it tips. Thus, these social epidemics can fail if the
geographic location where they are introduced is wrong or if the current mental state of the population is
not prepared for the message.

Gladwell also points out the importance of small groups for the distribution of messages. He argues
that the maximum number of members that can reasonably exist in a human group is one hundred
and fifty. He believes that biological limitations in our brain mean that any group larger than this will
automatically segment into factions and decrease efficiency. The existence of small groups helps the spread
of a message because each member of the group knows every other one and thus the message can easily
diffuse through the whole group. « the maximum number of members that
can reasonably exist in a human group is
one hundred and fifty »

http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.html


La loi du petit nombre
The law of the few is a law about the structure of our social network and how messages are passed through word of
mouth. It attempts to classify three important types of people who affect the rapid spread of messages through the
network. These three types of people are connectors, mavens, and salesmen.

Connectors are the socialites. They know a lot of people
They are people with many friends and acquaintances who spend time maintaining these connections. From the network
perspective, these are the most central nodes in the social network. Gladwell devised a simple test which allowed him to
determine that the number of connections a person has is measured by a power law. This means that connectors are
rare in society, but they maintain many more times the number of relationships than the average person does.
Because of their ability to spread a message to a huge number of people quickly, connectors are central to understanding
how tipping points are reached.

Mavens are the information gatherers of the social network. They know about things
They evaluate the messages that come through the network and they pass their evaluations on to others, along with the
messages. We can view mavens as regulators of the network because they have the power to control what flows through
the network. We trust mavens, and this is especially important because their assessments can often make or break the
tipping of an epidemic. Mavens drive many of our social institutions. They are the people who inform the better
business bureau, regulate prices, write letters to senators, etc. in order that the rest of us don't have to. Though
Gladwell does not argue this explicitly, his description of mavens suggests that mavens can be specialized in areas of
expertise and thus many of us may be mavens in our particular areas of interest.

Salesmen are what the name implies. They convince us to use informtion in a certain way.
They are persuaders who are capable of propagating messages through the force of their character. Thus, regardless of
the message content or their expertise in the area, they have a certain ability to sell which helps them move
messages which may be of importance to them. This Connectors They know a lot why people
ability to persuade strangers to accept a message is of
salesmen are important in tipping epidemics.
Mavens They know about things
Salesmen They convince us to use informtion
in a certain way.


La loi du petit nombre

Anybody who’s run a hyper-local site will tell you that it takes a couple
of years just to get to a point where you’ve truly got a vibrant online
community. It takes even longer to turn that into a viable business.
Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, Backfence was unable to sustain
itself long enough to reach that point.

Post-Mortem Title: Co-Founder Potts Shares Lessons Learned from Backfence Bust
Company: Backfence
Author: Mark Potts | Mark Glaser

http://www.chubbybrain.com/blog/startup-failure-post-mortem/


Stickyness Factor

The Stickiness Factor is a law about the actual informational content and
packaging of a message. Connections and the personal character of the
people trying to spread a message can certainly help it spread, but if the
message is not worth spreading, then it is doomed to failure. The stickiness
factor says that messages must have a certain character which causes
them to remain active in the recipients' minds. Moreover, they must be
deemed worthy of being passed on.

Pas seulement une histoire de taille de la
communauté, mais avant tout une question de
la pertinence du contenu posté et de la
qualité de sa mise en scène.



Grassroot versus Viral

From a marketing perspective, consider what would motivate people to help
build Wikipedia even though contributors were offered no incentive.
Contrast this with 37 Signals’ new affiliate program: if you get people to
sign-up for Basecamp, you get a commission. While the strategy of 37
Signals has the potential to become viral, it likely won’t, or it will be short-lived.
The TechCrunch spike is the same thing. I’d much rather build a launch
strategy around a small group of uber-committed folks who simply can’t
live without my product than take my chances on a one-time traffic rush,
hoping some percentage sticks.

« build a launch strategy around a small
group of uber-committed folks who simply
can’t live without my product than take my
chances on a one-time traffic rush »
http://ww w.leveragingideas.com/2008/09/28/difference-between-grassroots-and-viral/


Grassroot versus Viral

In his pop science book The Tipping Point (2000), author Malcolm Gladwell
proposes that the critical mass phenomenon follows the pattern of an
epidemic. According to Gladwell, epidemics occur through the accumulation
of different factors: (1) the infectious agent, (2) the people who transmit
the infectious agent, and (3) the environment in which the infectious
agent operates.

Grassroot first.

Get viral then.



Synthèse
Trouver les
Connectors,
Mettre en avant Mavens,
les ‘avantages’ Salesmen
de son réseau
(loi de Metclafe)
Ne pas se limiter à
Identifier et une communauté
animer des pré-identifiée
Clusters
Mettre en scène Grassroot first.
les acquis/
expériences des Get viral then. Maîtriser le nombre
Valoriser la
membres des sujets
mise en scène
existants d’échange au sein
contenu UGC
tout autant que de la communauté
la communauté Résoudre un
problème plutôt
que de valider
un produit


Synthèse


Atelier


Atelier

Formez des groupes autour de chaque service

Wiithaa,
DeWays,
La Ruche Qui Dit Oui,
Super Marmite,
BuzzCar,
La Mutinerie
Next & CoWorking
...


Points particuliers à nos services

Y'a-t-il des contraintes prévisibles ?
Y’a-t-il des impondérables liés aux produits d’échange ?

Par exemple on a faim trois fois par jour, pas prêt à faire une longue
distance, ... (Super Marmite)
Une voiture de ville a quatre places maximum, ... (CoVoiturage)
Il faut être majeur pour payer en ligne ...
Il faut avoir un PC connecté, voire un smartphone, ...
...


Atelier (15 minutes)

Proposition de travail
• repréciser le «problème» auquel notre service répond
• réouvrir les cibles potentielles (ne pas trop focaliser)
• identifier les clusters (restreindre autour de grappes) et trouver des idées pour
les atteindre
• essayer de calculer la masse critique, en prenant les différentes hypothèses
de travail des start-ups présentes
• identifier le’contenu’ généré par la communauté et à valoriser sur le site
• présenter aux autres et entendre les retours d'expérience sur ce qui est
présenté de la part de ceux qui ont déjà testé ce genre d'actions. Ou ont déjà
ciblé ce genre de communautés.



Présentation aux autres équipes



Réouverture
• identifier les communautés en commun entre tous les services pour les
adresser collectivement
• travailler sur l'idée d'un "login" commun (une sorte de FacebookConnect de la
conso collab) (voir protocoles OpenId / OAuth2)
• ou d’une association


merci

Marc Chataigner
Myriam Magra
Antonin Leonard


Masse critique

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