- The Thai stock market and bond market were mostly unchanged on January 31st while the US markets rose slightly.
- Crude oil prices increased due to concerns over unrest in Egypt disrupting the Suez Canal, a major transportation route.
- Thai domestic economic expansion is showing signs of slowing, but trade balances and current accounts remained in surplus.
China raised interest rates for the second time in 2021 to curb inflation pressures. The one-year deposit rate was increased to 3.25% and lending rate to 6.31%. This move was expected after China also recently raised bank reserve requirements. Inflation remains high in China, with consumer prices at 4.9% in February and producer prices accelerating. The interest rate hike aims to support a soft economic landing by slowing credit growth and cooling demand.
This document summarizes Tony Hsieh's book "Delivering Happiness" and talks about how Zappos' strong company culture has positively influenced other businesses. It shares stories from business owners who visited Zappos and were inspired to focus more on building great company culture at their own businesses. They found that prioritizing culture led to benefits like improved employee retention, satisfaction and customer service. The document highlights how company culture should be the number one priority, not just customer service, as culture drives everything else.
In this slidecast we will have a quick look at the quarterly earnings of Activision Blizzard. Also we are going to try and figure out how they get these results.
The Public Debt Management Office has released Thailand's bond auction plan for Q1 2011. Total bond supply will be increased to Bt94.5 billion, up from Bt90 billion in Q4 2010. Key changes include reducing the size of 5-10 year bond auctions while increasing 30-year bond auctions. The PDMO may also issue more 50-year bonds depending on demand. Savings bonds of 7-12 years may be added, while developments to the primary dealer program are expected by March 2011.
- The Thai stock market and bond market were mostly unchanged on January 31st while the US markets rose slightly.
- Crude oil prices increased due to concerns over unrest in Egypt disrupting the Suez Canal, a major transportation route.
- Thai domestic economic expansion is showing signs of slowing, but trade balances and current accounts remained in surplus.
China raised interest rates for the second time in 2021 to curb inflation pressures. The one-year deposit rate was increased to 3.25% and lending rate to 6.31%. This move was expected after China also recently raised bank reserve requirements. Inflation remains high in China, with consumer prices at 4.9% in February and producer prices accelerating. The interest rate hike aims to support a soft economic landing by slowing credit growth and cooling demand.
This document summarizes Tony Hsieh's book "Delivering Happiness" and talks about how Zappos' strong company culture has positively influenced other businesses. It shares stories from business owners who visited Zappos and were inspired to focus more on building great company culture at their own businesses. They found that prioritizing culture led to benefits like improved employee retention, satisfaction and customer service. The document highlights how company culture should be the number one priority, not just customer service, as culture drives everything else.
In this slidecast we will have a quick look at the quarterly earnings of Activision Blizzard. Also we are going to try and figure out how they get these results.
The Public Debt Management Office has released Thailand's bond auction plan for Q1 2011. Total bond supply will be increased to Bt94.5 billion, up from Bt90 billion in Q4 2010. Key changes include reducing the size of 5-10 year bond auctions while increasing 30-year bond auctions. The PDMO may also issue more 50-year bonds depending on demand. Savings bonds of 7-12 years may be added, while developments to the primary dealer program are expected by March 2011.
The document summarizes a preview event for the Goa Sand Art Festival held in various malls in Mumbai. Sand artists created sculptures of endangered species like lions, tigers, gorillas, rhinos, elephants and tigers out of sand to promote the upcoming festival in Goa. The previews attracted large crowds, especially children, and helped influence people to visit Goa in December to see more sand sculptures. The previews were considered a success based on the large turnouts.
KBank Capital Market perspectives May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...KBank Fx Dealing Room
Global markets are experiencing renewed volatility due to concerns about the future of the eurozone and slowing economic growth. Investors have sold risky assets like stocks and bought safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, U.S. treasuries and German bunds. The U.S. dollar has strengthened about 8% against other major currencies over the past year. Asian currencies have also weakened against the dollar, with the Thai baht declining about 2%.
1) A parliamentary election in Greece failed to form a new government, increasing the risk of Greece defaulting on its debt obligations or leaving the eurozone.
2) If Greece stops implementing austerity measures required for its bailouts, it will have no choice but to default, as it will have no incoming or outgoing funds. This will be a showdown between Greece's new leader and European creditors.
3) During the period of uncertainty until the next election, volatility in currency markets like the USD/THB will likely rise. However, the eurozone will ultimately take steps to keep Greece in the eurozone and inject more liquidity, reducing volatility once a solution is reached.
The document provides a summary of movements in various financial markets and commodities over the past quarter. It notes that the USD/THB remained in a sideways channel tracking EUR and gold. The EUR/USD was rangebound between 1.3000-1.3400 with focus on Spain. The USDJPY strengthened from 84 to 81 after the BoJ signaled no further easing but the market expects more bond purchases. The THB interest rate swap rose in Q1 on improved sentiment in Europe. NYMEX crude oil remained in an uptrend channel between $100-110. Coal prices continued to drop due to oversupply of the cheaper substitute, natural gas. Rubber rebounded in Q1 but
The document provides a summary of movements in various financial markets and commodities over the past quarter. It notes that the USD/THB remained in a sideways trend influenced by EUR and gold movements. The EUR/USD traded in a narrow range of 1.3000-1.3400 with focus on Spain. The USDJPY strengthened from 84 to 81 after the BoJ signaled no further easing but the market expects more bond purchases. THB interest rate swaps rose in Q1 on improved sentiment in Europe and comments from Thailand's central bank. NYMEX crude oil remained in an uptrend channel between $100-110. Coal prices continued to drop due to oversupply of the cheaper substitute,
1) Portugal's debt problems stem from rigid product and labor market regulations that have led to declining productivity and competitiveness.
2) While political risks are lower than other troubled European countries, more time is needed to restore Portugal's economy as significant reforms have been implemented.
3) The IMF assesses that existing financial assistance for Portugal is adequate, but risks remain and additional funds from Europe may be needed, though funds are available.
- The Federal Reserve decided to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate at 0-0.25%, as it has since December 2008, and expects to maintain this accommodative stance through late 2014.
- While the economy has been expanding moderately and unemployment has declined, the Fed judges that conditions still warrant exceptionally low interest rates.
- Inflation has picked up due to higher oil and gas prices but core inflation remains stable, and the Fed expects inflation to remain at or below its target in the medium term.
- The Fed will continue its program to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust the size and composition of holdings as needed.
- Thai economic indicators showed broad-based improvement in January from the impacts of flooding in 2011, but growth remains below pre-flood levels. Private consumption and investments increased.
- Manufacturing production continued rising as supply chain issues ease, though export-dependent sectors saw slower growth. Inflation declined further.
- The document discusses risks from higher oil prices and the ongoing European debt crisis, as well as positive factors like the risky asset rally and additional European funding measures.
Thailand has been placed on FATF's watch list due to a lack of progress in fighting money laundering and terrorism financing. FATF noted that Thailand has not fully implemented its action plan to address deficiencies, including adequately criminalizing terrorist financing and strengthening anti-money laundering supervision. Being placed on the watch list means fund transfers involving Thailand will face higher scrutiny and could lead to economic sanctions if issues are not addressed. As FATF members account for 83% of the global economy, sanctions would significantly impact Thailand. Thai authorities must now comply with FATF's recommendations to avoid further consequences.
§ Thai GDP dropped 9.0% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2011 due to declines in domestic and external demand from severe flooding, much less than forecasts.
§ The floods resulted in decreases in private consumption, government spending, investment and exports while imports also dropped.
§ For 2011, Thai GDP growth was only 0.1%, far below previous forecasts, due to the flooding impact.
§ NESDB expects Thai GDP growth to recover to 5.5-6.5% in 2012 as investment increases, though exports growth was forecast lower, and inflation is projected at 3.5-4.0%.
The document provides a market movement update for February 2012, summarizing trends in currency exchange rates and commodity prices over various time periods. It notes that the USD/THB spot rate has fallen over 22% since 2007 but only 7% since 2011. Other currency pairs and commodity prices such as oil, gold, and copper are also discussed. The document concludes by highlighting opportunities for cheap baht funding through currency swaps and recommending options hedging strategies.
The document provides a summary and analysis of economic conditions in Thailand and other regions. It discusses:
1) Continued concerns about the eurozone debt crisis fueling demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and depressing risk assets.
2) While US money supply growth looks better than the EU or Japan, high unemployment will likely lead the Fed to resume quantitative easing in mid-2012.
3) Local authorities in Thailand face challenges from losses at the Fiscal Debt Fund and risks of bond yield curve steepening given planned large bond issuances.
4) The analysis predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate again in January and forecasts Thailand's economy could experience a V-shaped
The document provides a summary and analysis of economic conditions in Thailand and other regions. It discusses:
1) Continued concerns about the eurozone debt crisis fueling demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and depressing risk assets.
2) While US money supply growth looks better than the EU or Japan, high unemployment will likely lead the Fed to resume quantitative easing in mid-2012.
3) Local authorities in Thailand face challenges from losses at the Fiscal Debt Fund and risks of bond yield curve steepening given planned large bond issuances.
4) The analysis predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate again in January and forecasts Thailand's economy could experience a V-shaped
This document provides an economic update on Thailand with data from November and December 2011. It discusses declines in the SET index, farm income, manufacturing production, private consumption, investment, exports and imports due to the European debt crisis and flooding in Thailand. Headline inflation declined to 3.53% in December as food and transportation prices fell with improved flooding conditions. Government bond yields rebounded at the end of December on news of large planned bond issuances in the coming quarters.
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30 flooding and economic slowdown in n...KBank Fx Dealing Room
The Thai economy contracted sharply in November 2011 due to the severe flooding which impacted all economic sectors. Key economic indicators such as manufacturing production, exports, private consumption, and investment all declined significantly from the prior month and year. The Thai baht also weakened substantially against the US dollar in November amid the slowing global economy and flooding impacts on Thailand.
- Exports and imports in Thailand fell in November, with exports down 12.4% year-over-year and imports down 2.4%, leading to a larger trade deficit of $1.373 billion.
- The declines were due to ongoing effects of severe flooding during the quarter, which disrupted manufacturing production and supply chains. Exports of industrial goods and vehicles fell sharply.
- Weak exports will likely warrant a more dismal economic outlook, leading the Bank of Thailand to consider further interest rate cuts to support recovery. The document forecasts USD/THB volatility in the first half of 2012, with a target rate of 29.50 by year-end.
5. KBank Market Watch 15 ธันวาคม 2553
Credit Default Swaps (Unit : basis points above Libor)
Asia & Australia Current 1 day ago 5 days ago 1mth ago 3mth ago 6mth ago 1yr ago
Japan 71 71 68 57 67 93 65
People's Republic of China 72 72 70 61 78 89 72
Republic of Korea 94 94 102 90 106 133 87
Kingdom of Thailand 97 97 99 102 108 133 92
Republic of Indonesia 128 128 132 141 151 181 195
Federation of Malaysia 75 75 80 77 87 105 87
Republic of the Philippines 124 124 126 136 149 169 173
Republic of Kazakhstan 185 185 179 182 186 209 224
Commonwealth of Australia 53 53 55 46 47 61 37
Europe Current 1 day ago 5 days ago 1mth ago 3mth ago 6mth ago 1yr ago
Republic of Austria 92 92 83 73 86 92 72
Kingdom of Belgium 207 207 195 134 132 120 46
Republic of Bulgaria 244 244 240 233 294 331 220
Republic of Finland 32 32 31 28 30 34 26
French Republic 105 105 95 77 77 86 27
Hellenic Republic (Greece) 944 944 909 886 911 776 219
Republic of Ireland 551 551 539 527 378 231 152
Italian Republic 209 209 202 188 207 189 91
Kingdom of the Netherlands 59 59 55 50 46 48 29
Portuguese Republic 468 468 435 438 332 295 72
Russian Federation 145 145 145 143 161 181 192
Kingdom of Spain 335 335 308 256 231 224 93
Kingdom of Sweden 33 33 31 29 36 40 52
Republic of Turkey 130 130 128 132 163 182 192
Federal Republic of Germany 53 53 47 39 41 40 22
Source: Bloomberg
หมายเหตุ : Credit default swaps หรือตราสารอนุพันธประกันความเสี่ยง สําหรับการออกพันธบัตรรัฐบาลหรือ การออกหุนกู โดยจะคิด
อัตราดอกเบี้ยในระดับที่สูงกวาอัตรากูยืมระหวางธนาคาร (LIBOR) เพื่อใหครอบคลุมความเสี่ยงดานความนาเชื่อถือหรือการผิดนัดชําระหนี้
ในอนาคต
วารุณี สิทธิถาวร
ผูชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
โทรศัพท: 02 470 1031
E-mail: warunee.si@kasikornbank.com
เอกสารฉบับนี้จัดทําขึ้นเพื่อวัตถุประสงคสําหรับใชเปนขอมูลในการปฏิบัติงานภายในบมจ.ธนาคารกสิกรไทยและสําหรับลูกคาที่ธนาคารกําหนดเทานั้น ขอมูลในเอกสารนี้จัดทําเตรียมขึ้นเพื่อจุดมุงหมายในการใหขอมูล ความเห็นและบทวิเคราะหอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงไดโดยไม
ตองแจงใหทราบลวงหนา ธนาคารแสดงความเห็นในฐานะที่เปนผูทําตลาด (Market Maker) ของตราสารทางการเงินที่มีการกลาวในเอกสารฉบับนี้ ขอมูลในเอกสารฉบับนี้เปนขอมูลที่ธนาคารเชื่อวาถูกตอง แตธนาคารมิไดรับรองความถูกตองแทจริงและความสมบูรณของ
5
ขอมูลดังกลาว เอกสารฉบับนี้มิใชการเสนอหรือชี้ชวนใหซื้อหรือขายหรือโอนตราสารใดๆ ธนาคารและ/หรือผูเขียนจะไมรับผิดชอบใดๆ ในความสูญเสียหรือเสียหายที่เกิดขึ้นจากการใชขอมูลที่ระบุในเอกสารฉบับนี้
6. KBank Market Watch 15 ธันวาคม 2553
G7 Economic Calendar
Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior reading Revision
12/10/2010 06:50 JN BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) 4Q -- -5 7.1 --
12/10/2010 06:50 JN BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) 4Q -- -8 13.3 --
12/10/2010 06:50 JN Domestic CGPI (MoM) NOV 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
12/10/2010 06:50 JN Domestic CGPI (YoY) NOV 1.00% 0.90% 0.90% 0.80%
12/10/2010 12:00 JN Consumer Confidence NOV -- 40.6 41.1 --
12/10/2010 12:00 JN Consumer Confidence Households NOV -- 40.4 40.9 --
12/10/2010 14:00 GE Wholesale Price Index (MoM) NOV -- 0.70% -0.30% --
12/10/2010 14:00 GE Wholesale price Index (YoY) NOV -- 7.80% 7.70% --
12/10/2010 14:45 FR Industrial Production (MoM) OCT 0.30% -0.80% 0.10% --
12/10/2010 14:45 FR Industrial Production (YoY) OCT 5.30% 4.70% 5.10% 5.60%
12/10/2010 14:45 FR Manufacturing Production (MoM) OCT 0.40% -0.80% -0.10% --
12/10/2010 14:45 FR Manufacturing Production (YoY) OCT 5.20% 4.50% 4.90% 5.40%
12/10/2010 16:00 IT Industrial Production sa (MoM) OCT 0.70% -0.10% -2.10% -2.10%
12/10/2010 16:00 IT Industrial Production wda(YoY) OCT 4.50% 2.90% 4.10% 4.40%
12/10/2010 16:00 IT Industrial Production nsa(YoY) OCT 4.60% -0.20% 4.10% 4.40%
12/10/2010 16:30 UK PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) NOV 0.30% 0.30% 0.60% --
12/10/2010 16:30 UK PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) NOV 4.00% 3.90% 4.00% --
12/10/2010 16:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) NOV 0.30% 0.20% 0.40% 0.30%
12/10/2010 16:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) NOV 3.50% 3.30% 3.30% 3.20%
12/10/2010 17:00 IT GDP sa and wda (QoQ) 3Q F 0.20% 0.30% 0.20% --
12/10/2010 17:00 IT GDP sa and wda (YoY) 3Q F 1.00% 1.10% 1.00% --
12/10/2010 17:00 IT Private Consumption 3Q 0.10% 0.30% 0.00% --
12/10/2010 17:00 IT Government Spending 3Q 0.20% -0.20% 0.40% --
12/10/2010 17:00 IT Total investments 3Q 0.10% 0.90% 1.30% 2.00%
12/10/2010 17:00 IT Exports 3Q -- 2.80% 3.30% 2.40%
12/10/2010 17:00 IT Imports 3Q -- 4.70% 0.80% -0.10%
12/10/2010 20:30 CA Int'l Merchandise Trade OCT -2.1B -1.7B -2.5B -2.3B
12/10/2010 20:30 US Trade Balance OCT -$43.8B -$38.7B -$44.0B -$44.6B
12/10/2010 20:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) NOV 0.80% 1.30% 0.90% 1.00%
12/10/2010 20:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) NOV 2.80% 3.70% 3.60% 3.80%
12/10/2010 21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence DEC P 72.5 74.2 71.6 --
12/11/2010 02:00 US Monthly Budget Statement NOV -$138.5B -$150.4B -$120.3B --
12/13/2010 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) DEC -- -3.00% -3.20% --
12/13/2010 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY) DEC -- 0.40% 1.30% --
12/13/2010 14:45 FR Current Account (EURO) OCT -- -2.5B -4.4B --
12/13/2010 14:45 FR Wages (QoQ) 3Q F -- 0.30% 0.30% --
12/13/2010 16:30 UK PPI Input NSA (MoM) NOV 0.50% 0.90% 2.10% 2.20%
12/13/2010 16:30 UK PPI Input NSA (YoY) NOV 8.30% 9.00% 8.00% 8.20%
12/13/2010 20:30 CA Capacity Utilization Rate 3Q 76.50% 78.10% 76.00% 76.90%
12/14/2010 07:01 UK RICS House Price Balance NOV -50% -44% -49% --
12/14/2010 11:00 JN Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) NOV -- -- 9.80% --
12/14/2010 11:30 JN Industrial Production (MoM) OCT F -- -- -1.80% --
12/14/2010 11:30 JN Industrial Production YOY% OCT F -- -- 4.50% --
12/14/2010 11:30 JN Capacity Utilization (MoM) OCT F -- -- -1.10% --
12/14/2010 13:30 FR CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) NOV 0.10% -- 0.10% --
12/14/2010 13:30 FR CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) NOV 1.80% -- 1.80% --
12/14/2010 13:30 FR Consumer Price Index (MoM) NOV 0.10% -- 0.10% --
12/14/2010 13:30 FR Consumer Price Index (YoY) NOV 1.70% -- 1.60% --
12/14/2010 13:30 FR CPI Ex Tobacco Index NOV 120.15 -- 120.03 --
12/14/2010 16:00 IT Labor Costs (QoQ) 3Q -- -- 0.70% --
Source: Bloomberg
เอกสารฉบับนี้จัดทําขึ้นเพื่อวัตถุประสงคสําหรับใชเปนขอมูลในการปฏิบัติงานภายในบมจ.ธนาคารกสิกรไทยและสําหรับลูกคาที่ธนาคารกําหนดเทานั้น ขอมูลในเอกสารนี้จัดทําเตรียมขึ้นเพื่อจุดมุงหมายในการใหขอมูล ความเห็นและบทวิเคราะหอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงไดโดยไม
ตองแจงใหทราบลวงหนา ธนาคารแสดงความเห็นในฐานะที่เปนผูทําตลาด (Market Maker) ของตราสารทางการเงินที่มีการกลาวในเอกสารฉบับนี้ ขอมูลในเอกสารฉบับนี้เปนขอมูลที่ธนาคารเชื่อวาถูกตอง แตธนาคารมิไดรับรองความถูกตองแทจริงและความสมบูรณของ
6
ขอมูลดังกลาว เอกสารฉบับนี้มิใชการเสนอหรือชี้ชวนใหซื้อหรือขายหรือโอนตราสารใดๆ ธนาคารและ/หรือผูเขียนจะไมรับผิดชอบใดๆ ในความสูญเสียหรือเสียหายที่เกิดขึ้นจากการใชขอมูลที่ระบุในเอกสารฉบับนี้
